N e w b u r y   2.45

7/2 Al Kazeem, 7/2 Beaten Up 9/2 Mohedian Lady
6/1 Barbican, 13/2 French Navy 20/1 Theology
25/1 Vulcanite.

The St Simon Stakes is a Group 3 race over 12f for all aged
horses. There are 21 renewals of this race since 1991.
I see THEOLOGY one to oppose and surely vulnerable coming
from a 2m race. Just one winner did that and only two past
winners dropped in trip at all. Horses from 13f or further
on their latest starts struggled. BARBICAN looks vulnerable
as he won at 14f last time and has to come back in trip.
I feel VULCANITE should be opposed down in trip as well.
None of the past 21 winners were like BEATEN UP who has just
2 career starts. The least experienced past winner of this
in the last 21 years had 4 runs. No male horse has won it
with under 5 runs and BEATEN UP with just two runs looks
just too riSky. FRENCH NAVY didnt come out well as he has a
heavy defeat last time to overcome and He is a 3yo going up
in distance and I want more runs this season for a horse with
that profile. I shortlist two horses.

* AL KAZEEM – Chances but 3yo fillies are better
* I’d like another run this year or a last run at 12f

Selection

MOHEDIAN LADY

* Fillies aged 3
* Coming from 12f last time out
* Between 3-4 runs that season
* Running within 10 weeks
* Similar horses had a 6-8 record
* MOHEDIAN LADY has that 6-8 record

I am going with her as 3yo fillies have a great record
and she has comfortably the best profile. Winning at
Newmarket last time she broke the track record. Not
really a positive for me. The Faster they go the less
chance they can repeat that form next time but how
that affects her I don’t know. I dont see a better bet
though and MOHEDIAN LADY appeals around 7/2

7/2 around earlier for full members but best price now
at time of posting on our free blog is 10/3 at Sky

PS Sky introduced a new £10 free bet offer the other day for new customers.
Interesting about it the fact that you do not need to
deposit any cash with them to get it.

 

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Chester 2.25

BERTOLIVER 5/1 William Hill

For best live odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2009-08-22/chester/14-25/betting/

Win Bet

Just one selection on BERTOLIVER at Chester. Feels like a
subdued Saturday with less Racing and some smaller fields and in an attempt to find my best bet at decent odds there were not many options and only one horse that came close to being a bet and that’s BERTOLIVER. There are issue at Chester over 5 furlongs like the start and how fast they go and there is also a false rail there today so plenty of factors in this race that we can not be sure about but I think I’ve made a good enough case for BERTOLIVER to be worth a bet around 5/1 and the race has plenty of negatives as well which should increase his chance.

CHESTER 2.25

TotePLACEPOT HANDICAP(CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-85) 5f16y

7/2 Glamorous Spirit, 9/2 Bertoliver, 6/1 Tyrannosaurus Rex, 7/1 Invincible Lad, 7/1 Tyfos, 10/1 Le Toreador, 12/1 Misaro, 14/1 Supermassive Muse, 16/1 Rasaman, 20/1 Total Impact, 33/1 Methaaly, 33/1 Sands Crooner, 33/1 Stolt.

This is a 5f Handicap for 0-84 rated horses. Chester has had 34 of these races in August and September and there has been 497 similar handicaps elsewhere. GLAMOROUS SPIRIT has to go as a 3yo filly from a 3yo handicap. In 497 races there were just three Fillies who managed to win with that profile. Of these 3 fillies none had a weight she has or were beaten as far as she was last time and none were as exposed as She is. GLAMOROUS SPIRIT has 15 runs. Look at 3yo fillies with 13 or more runs from 3yo handicaps and since 1993 you see a 0-57 record. The problem in this race is that every runner has a recent race and is well raced and the strength in depth is enormous. RASAMAN does not appeal as horses from 6f claimers were miserable. I suppose that as Chester has had 34 handicaps in the last 3 seasons at 5 furlongs and that stalls 11 or more were 0-56 we should throw out the high drawn horses so METHAALY is rejected as is SANDS CROONER – STOLT and TOTAL IMPACT as well. SUPERMASSIVE MUSE won this last year and was well beaten last year before this race just as he is this year. The difference for me now is he is exposed now and doesnt have the same preparation and I ran his profile through 497 races and no horse like him won. Exposed 4 year olds beaten 10 lengths or more last time like him were poor and those without at least nine runs that season were 0-76 so he isnt for me. I dont fancy TYRANNOSAURUS REX. When he won here in June it was a Career best. He has to better than today in a better class race from a higher handicap mark and I dont see him doing that from a stable that are really struggling and when he may have gone off the boil himself. MISARO needs close to a career best and he may pop up but he is getting on now as an 8 year old and his last win came against “seniors” aged 6 or more in a much lower class race and the percentage call is that he will probably find something faster. TYFOS has stall 1. Very complicated sort of profile as a 4 year old down in trip with an intermediate sort of absence.

Statistically he did enough to get on a shortlist but I wasnt impressed enough. I felt he wanted a more recent run and he lacks backclass and that worries me. After all every other horse in this race has ran in a higher grade before than TYFOS has and you can ignore that for lightly raced horses but he has 16 runs now. Thrown in the fact he was outpaced and beaten the only time he ran at Chester over this trip and he doesnt have any other runs at 5f and when you consider the Dam won over hurdles and in a Bumper you wonder where he will get the speed for a race over 5 furlongs. I am not sold on his chance

SHORTLIST

BERTOLIVER -LE TOREADOR  -INVINCIBLE LAD

LE TOREADOR has an excellent chance and excellent profile
and ran much better than it looked last time but his problem is probably Stall 8 and how much luck he gets from that. Take the last 17 handicaps here over 5f. In these 17 races 16 of the 17 to win were drawn lower than Stall 8. LE TOREADOR will have to have some luck to win. INVINCIBLE LAD ran really well last  time at Goodwood and if he repeats that he could well win. My only worries here are no form at Chester and a Career high mark. He has a habit of starting slowly and thet wont help him here and he is riSky.

SELECTION

BERTOLIVER is well treated and he looks likely to burst out and try and make all. Whether he folds like he did last time at Newbury or not is another matter. It may have been a bit soft for him last time as he wants it fast and he does love it here so everything looks placed for a serious run from the front and he should trade low in running. He looks a win bet. Phillip Robinson is an eye catching booking and this looks his race.

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips