D o n c a s t e r   3.45

7/2 Cry Fury, 9/2 Sarrsar, 11/2 Eton Forever
6/1 Sooraah, 7/1 Man Of Action, 12/1 Casual Glimpse
12/1 Vainglory, 14/1 Crown Counsel, 16/1 Fareer
16/1 Mia4s Boy, 33/1 Just Bond, 100/1 Majuro.

* This is a 8f handicap for horses rated 0-103
* Doncaster have had 17 renewals of this race
* There has been 39 similar class 2 handicaps elsewhere
* There were 10 winners aged 3
* None had 13 + career starts (0-24)
* CROWN COUNSEL fails that and looks wrong
* Horses aged 3 coming from 7f races won 2 races
* None had 9 or more career starts (0-16)
* CASUAL GLIMPSE fails that
* JUST BOND is on a career high mark in a class too high
* JUST BOND doesnt appeal aged 9 absent over a month
* MIA4S BOY is 7 and comes from a 7f race
* Thats not easy to do with just 3 runs this season
* There is a worry he has gone off the boil a little
* MAJURO is outclassed at the moment
* SOORAAH is a 4yo filly
* There was 1 winner like that in 39 races (1-18)
* That winner was exposed and she is not
* That winner had far more runs that year
* SOORAAH is too unsafe absent 43 days
* She isnt a negative but I prefer others
* The weight could be important here
* 17 past renewals and horses with 9st 5lbs + are 0-28
* SARRSAR has 9st 10lbs to carry more than all winners
* I found a few similar 4 year olds to him
* None won last time and none had his weight
* None of the 39 winners won with 9st 9lbs or more
* ETON FOREVER is a 4yo absent 87 days
* I have found 4 year old with a similar profile
* That was the 2009 winner of this race
* He also came from the Royal Hunt Cup
* ETON FOREVER looks interesting on that alone
* The 2009 winner did have 4 runs that season
* ETON FOREVER only has 3 runs
* The 2009 winner also had 15lbs less weight
* ETON FOREVER has 9st 10lbs and thats a problem
* We know None of the 39 winners carried that
* MAN OF ACTION is 4 with 1-2-3 runs this year
* The only winners with that profile had Group form
* He also has a months absence to overcome
* I would like more runs this season

S h o r t l i s t

* CRY FURY is very lightly raced down in trip
* I found a similar winner winning a similar race
* That horse didnt win last time and had less weight
* Hard to read him I wasnt completely convinced
* Besides that is it in his best interests to win this ?
* He has the Cambridgeshire as a target next time out
* He should easily make the race on his rating
* Wouldnt surprise me to see him 2nd or 3rd or 4th

* VAINGLORY has an acceptable profile
* I found 2 winners his age with similar profiles
* He has a tough mark but its not beyond him
* He is beginning to look like a small field horse
* This field will be small enough for him
* VAINGLORY comes from a good trial race
* He comes from the Goddard Stakes at York
* So did the winners in 1997 99 00 01 05 07 and 2010
* He is too big a price at 14/1

Selection

VAINGLORY 14/1 Each Way  s james    bet365

Posted under horse racing tips

Apache Glory won well for us last weekend at 6/1 advised.

Today there are a lot of short priced favourites in handicaps
I have made negatives today so it should be interesting.
I wont get them all right but there are several of these.
In the 2.30 at Ascot I think MACS POWER has a big
chance against a bad favourite. Although admittedly it
is a bit contradictory I think my negative RITUAL is
actually a sensible place bet at evens and I plan to go
for a place bet on him and win bet on MACS POWER
rather than the other option MACS POWER eachway.

A s c o t   2.30

5/1 Ritual, 7/1 Mac4s Power, 8/1 Dungannon
9/1 Piazza San Pietro, 10/1 L4ami Louis, 12/1 Johannes
12/1 R Woody, 12/1 Racy, 12/1 Secret Witness, 14/1 Baby Strange
14/1 Courageous, 14/1 Imperial Guest, 16/1 Lutine Bell 16/1 Mon Brav,
16/1 Singeur, 25/1 Edge Closer
25/1 Noble Citizen, 33/1 Below Zero, 33/1 Tamagin.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 6f
* RITUAL has a bad profile from a 5f race
* He is 4 and only has 1 run this season
* Horses from 5f races aged 4 were 0-32
* No horse came from 5f without 5 runs that year
* I will be surprised if Ritual wins this
* MON BRAV is a negative aged 4 from 5f (0-32)
* RACY is a negative  aged 4 from 5f (0-32)
* L4AMI LOUIS is wrong as a 3yo
* None won with under 7 runs or 4 this year
* L4AMI LOUIS doesnt have that and is weak
* BABY STRANGE – Wrong from a 5f race
* R WOODY is underraced for a 4yo with 13 + runs
* All similar 4 year olds needed 5 + runs that season
* COURAGEOUS – Needs more runs down from 7f
* JOHANNES – His age are weak and he isnt right
* PIAZZA SAN PIETRO – Can’t dismiss him but unsafe
* I’d be worried about the ground for him
* IMPERIAL GUEST – Wanted a better last run
* LUTINE BELL – Small chance but ground worries
* SINGEUR – I liked him more than his profile
* I Couldnt match him to any winners though
* DUNGANNON is 4 and won last time out
* The 4 year olds doing that did have more runs
* They had more runs that season as well
* If I am strict then DUNGANNON falls short
* SECRET WITNESS – Hard to read. Feels a big ask
* MAC4S POWER has to be a big positive
* I’d worry he is handicapped a bit too harshly
* Like his profile and he must go close

S E L E C T I O N

I have Ritual down as a negative but he is clearly a highly
regarded horse from outstanding connections. There lacks
a lot of strong profiles here as well and that tells me it will be too riSky to lay Ritual.
I am selecting an alternative but  it strikes me that with 4 places available
Ritual is going to be about 10/11 to 11/10 to be placed in the race and with  a
questionable field that may not be a bad price.
He could easily get beaten and place and the statistics to work out.
That seems a fair price to me.
It would even tempt me in a split stake bet with Ritual to place and MAC’S POWER being the main selecton in the race.

Coming in a touch now but 4/1 Mac’s Power available in several spots, bet365, PaddyPower , Ladbrokes, VC etc

Posted under horse racing tips

Lingfield 4.55

More Live Football At Totesport.com Handicap
(Turf) (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 7f

9/2 Bowmaker, 11/2 Den´s Gift, 13/2 Space Station
8/1 Buxton, 8/1 Wilfred Pickles, 10/1 Free For All
10/1 Seek The Fair Land, 12/1 Red Yarn, 14/1 Aldermoor
16/1 Leadenhall Lass, 16/1 Nezami, 16/1 Slugger O´toole
20/1 Aye Aye Digby.

* This is a 7f Handicap for horses rated 0-84
* There are 156 similar races at this time of year
* You want a high draw in these races
* Since 2008 there were 23 Handicaps here with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn in stalls 1-2-3 had a poor 1-73 record
* Recent winners came from these stalls
* 11-5-16-12-18-6-14-10-11-15-17-8-10
* AYE AYE DIGBY is out drawn 1
* No exposed horse won absent more than 7 months
* ALDERMOOR doesnt appeal in stall 2
* He is an exposed debutant and may need the run
* SLUGGER O´TOOLE has a poor draw in stall 3
* SLUGGER O´TOOLE is exposed and first time out
* RED YARN is not drawn well in stall 4
* She is a 4yo filly racing first time out
* 4yo fillies doing that with 7 + runs had a 0-38 record
* FREE FOR ALL is 4 and last ran in a Maiden last year
* Horses doing that with 2 or more runs were 0-15
* I don’t like her inexperience or his stable
* LEADENHALL LASS is a mare with 1 run this year
* Mares with 1 run this season have a 2-61 record
* None of these won or placed last time out
* She find it hard to follow up with just 1 run
* She won a small field 0-74 last time and this is better
* BOWMAKER has a good draw but a questionable profile
* I looked at 4yo Males with under 13 career starts
* BOWMAKER is 4 and has only raced 7 times
* Those 4 year olds with 1-2-3 runs that year were 2-73
* Not a good record and both winners had Class 2 form
* Those like BOWMAKER who didnt were 0-48
* NEZAMI is respected despite being underraced
* I cant find a similar winner his age
* Not exposed with 1 run this year and an absence
* I Suspect he will need 1 more run this season
* WILFRED PICKLES is 5 and drops down in distance
* No problem doing that but most winners had more backclass
* He has no form beyond this class and it hurts his chance
* So far he has lost in all 15 races on turf
* All came from lower handicap marks as well
* His 42 day absence hurts him as well
* I also wonder if the ground may be too quick
* Given all that and stall 5 of 13 he isnt for me
* BUXTON is fine statistically
* I just question whether he is up to this class
* Most of his runs/wins are against slightly weaker horses
* He is up in class today as well
* One or two may have more talent
* He seems to need to go round a bend as well

SHORTLIST

* DEN´S GIFT has a decent profile
* He is 7 with 3 runs this year running well last time
* I found 3 winners with his profile
* All 3 did have a bit less weight
* He is also 0-19 on Grass and has one of the weaker riders
* I see him as shortlistable though

* SPACE STATION is a 5yo male down from 8f
* SPACE STATION was well beaten last time 5 days ago
* He caught the eye last time but he often does
* I ran his profile carefully
* I found 1 similar winner with slight differences
* That winner had just over a weeks break not under
* That winner had less weight as well
* He didnt come from the sand either
* He isnt that well handicapped either
* He will also have to make sure he runs prominently
* He could throw away a good draw if he doesnt

* SEEK THE FAIR LAND has a strong profile
* Male 5 year old exposed with 2 runs this season
* Coming from a 7f handicap with Class 2 backclass
* I found 4 similar winners with that profile
* Those not beaten more than 10 lengths were best
* Those not winning last time were best
* Similar horses had a 2-5 record
* All his wins are on Sand but hes had few turf oppurtunities
* Last time on Grass he was 3rd in a 0-95 Handicap
* That was a much better race and he was out of the weights
* Absent more than 10 weeks before that race as well
* SEEK THE FAIR LAND has a serious chance

SEEK THE FAIR LAND 8/1    Sky   s james

Win Bet

Posted under horse racing tips

For those of you who prefer to do your own thing selection wise

here are some researched stats for Cheltenham Day 4 races.

 

 

CHELTENHAM 1.30

JCB Triumph Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo) 2m1f

* The Triumph Hurdle is for 4 year olds over 17f
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* English Horses have won the last 8 renewals
* I would avoid horses with 1 career start
* Horses that had 7 + previous races had a 0-31 record.
* 2 of the last winners had just 2 previous races
* Thats a change as 17 of the previous 18 had more
* Flat Bred runners seem to have the advantage.
* 15 of the last 16 winners were Flat Bred
* Look for a Flat Bred horse that stayed 12f on the flat
* Horses that ran within 2 weeks were 0-49
* The last 19 winners all ran after January 17th that year
* The Adonis Hurdle winner has won this 5 times
* Fillies won 3 renewals in 1993, 1994 and 2000
* All 3 won last time within the past month
* Horses that won their last race won 12 of the last 13
* You must have a horse 1st or 2nd last time
* Those that were not had a 0-158 record
* Horses that ran over 17f or more last time were 1-85
* Only Katchit won from 17f and he won a Champion Hurdle
* All 28 horses that came from Handicaps Lost
* Horses coming from Class 5 or lower struggled
* Those that had 3 or more runs doing that were 0-49
* All 36 horses that came from a Class 2 Hurdle lost
* All 85 maidens lost
* 14 of the last 16 winners had won twice that season
* Colts dont have a great record compared to Geldings
* Horses beaten 8 + lengths last time were 0-133

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CHELTENHAM 2.05

Vincent O?Brien County Handicap Hurdle
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m1f

* The County Hurdle is a Handicap over 17f
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* Seasonal debutants have not won this race
* Horses with 1 race that season were 0-43
* You want a horse with at least 3 runs that season
* Over 100 horses had under 3 runs and none won
* All 16 winners had at least that and most had 4 +
* The last 18 winners had these runs since September
* 3-4 6 4 7 7 3 5 5 5 4 6 5 7 7 5 5 3 4
* You want a horse with 3-7 runs this season
* The last 18 winners had this number of hurdle runs
* 14 4 10 7 8 16 7 17 21 8 5 6 26 12 21 25 10 10 17
* You want a Horse that ran within the last 56 days.
* Only Sir Talbot (1999) won with a longer absence
* The last 17 winners were absence this many days
* 55 27 14 34 13 36 32 33 33 13 98 17 44 3 28 16 29 21 52
* All 56 horses that came from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Lost
* Last time out finishing position doesnt matter much
* Horses aged 5 or 6 have the best record
* 5 and 6 year olds won 39 of the last 49 renewals
* Horses aged 5 have won 4 of the last 6 renewals
* No horse aged 10 or older have won
* English horses aged 7 or more were 3-159
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that season were 0-95
* I wouldnt bet a horse aged 7 or more with under 5 runs
* 16 of the last 18 winners ran in at least 2 handicaps before
* Both high and low weighted winners have won
* I’d oppose the very high weighted horses
* Horses with 11st 10lbs or more are 0-18

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CHELTENHAM 2.40

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
(Registered As The Spa Novices Hurdle Race)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 3 Miles
* There are just 6 renewals of this race
* The 5 winners were aged 7-6-7-6-7-5
* Horses aged 8 or more are 0-13
* The 6 winners were 4 2 2 1 1 2 on their previous starts
* The 6 winners had 15-6-8-8-5-4 hurdle and bumper runs
* They had the following number of hurdle starts
* 13 – 4 – 3 – 4 – 3 – 4
* I would ideally want 3 or 4 hurdle runs but at least 3
* Dont be put off from horses with absences
* The 6 winners had been absent this many days
* 33 47 61 48 97 27
* All 6 winners came from a Grade 2 Hurdle last time
* 2 of the 6 winners won a Cheltenham Grade 2 last time
* 5 of the 6 winners had ran at the distance before
* 5 of the 6 winners had ran at the track before
* The 6 winners had 9-4-3-4-3-5 runs that season

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CHELTENHAM 3.20

Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* 14 of the last 15 winners had 6-14 previous Chase starts
* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009
* The last 14 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled
* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-82 record
* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse
* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record.
* They’ve won 16 of the last 17 Cheltenham Gold Cups.
* Horses aged 10 do not have a great record
* Horses aged 10 have a 1-85 record since 1992
* Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
* All 34 that ran in the last 17 years lost.
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* I wouldnt want a horse with fewer runs that season
* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine
* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.
* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form.
* 11 of the last 13 winners placed at a previous Festival.
* Allmost all past winners placed or fell last time out
* The only exception was last years winner 5th in a Grade 1
* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.
* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race
* Horses from a Grade 1 – Grade 2 chase last time are best
* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best
* Every winner since 1992 had managed that
* A Novice hasnt won the Gold Cup since 1974

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CHELTENHAM 4.00

Christies Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup
(CLASS 2) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

* The Foxhunters is a Hunter Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* Foxhunters Chase and England lead 15-2 since 1992
* Horses aged 11 or more were 2-130 both winners a shock
* Its a race more often than not gone to younger horses.
* You can’t rule out any age as a 13yo won in 2004
* 6 recent winners ran within the last 15 days
* Two of these won at Newbury and 4 at Warwick.
* Anything that wins very recently is significant
* Seasonal debutants won several renewals
* I would either want a long absence or very short one
* Horses with Headgear won 1 race but score badly
* We haven’t yet had a female winner of this race (0-14)
* The last 14 winners had the following finishing positions
* W W W L UR W 2 W 3 W W W W W
* The majority have won their latest starts
* Or they would have probably won when falling
* 19 of the last 23 winners won on their previous start
* Horses that came from a Handicap Chase are 1-37
* 19 of the last 21 were brought up via Hunters or Points
* All 23 horses from a Novice or Maiden Hunter Chase Lost
* 38 horses lined up having previously ran in a Grade 1 race.
* None of the 38 won this race
* No past winner came from 2m 4f or shorter

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CHELTENHAM 4.00

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle
(CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-140) 2m4f110y

* No strong Statistics with just 2 past renewals
* Both winners were 6 year olds
* Both had 11st 2lbs and more
* Both last ran in Febuary
* Both had 9-11 runs over Bumpers-Hurdles-Fences
* Both had ran over fences at least once before
* Both had ran 7-8 times over hurdles before
* Neither winner came up in distance
* Both had placed at Cheltenham before
* Both winners had 4 runs that season
* Neither had 3 or more career wins before

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CHELTENHAM 5.15

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup
(Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m110y

* The Grand Annual is a 2m Handicap Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* Recent winners had the follwing Chase runs
* 7 6 13 11 5 7 10 4 11 3 6 5 39 26
* Recent winners had the follwing Hurdle runs
* 30 7 12 3 12 11 6 1 11 7 25 2 8 14
* Recent winners had the follwing Chase-Hurdle runs
* 37 13 25 14 17 18 16 5 22 10 30 7 47 40
* Lightly raced Chasers were best since 1997
* The last 11 winners had these Handicap Chase runs
* 1 0 4 7 1 0 3 0 4 0 0 5
* 5 of the last 11 winners had never ran in Handicap Chase
* Another one had only ran in 1 Handicap Chase.
* The last 11 winners had these Novice Chase runs
* 6 6 8 4 4 6 7 4 7 3 6 7 Novice Chase runs
* The last 12 winners had no more than 12 runs in Chases.
* Strongly consider horses with 0-5 Handicap Chase runs
* Strongly consider horses with 3-8 Novice Chases runs
* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less.
* The last High Weighted winner was in 1998
* Horses with 11st 3lbs or more were 2-55
* One was exceptional winning many Grade 1 races
* The last 12 winners were aged 7 6 10 7 8 9 9 5 9 7 8 6
* Horses aged 10 or more won 3 renewals since 1991
* None of these came from 2m chases (0-36)
* Only 1 winner aged 10 or more was exposed (1-39)
* They all had form in Graded races
* Only 1 of the last 16 winners had just 1 run that season
* Between 3 and 5 runs that season is best
* Last years winner had 7 runs that year but thats unusual
* English horses absent 7 weeks or more were 0-64
* All winners bar Fota Island in 2005 ran within 7 weeks
* All 35 horses that dropped from 2m 5f trips or longer lost
* 16 of the last 17 winners had ran in Graded Class before
* The one that didnt spent most time Racing in France
* Predictably all 37 apprentice riders lost in this race
* Horses winning 8 or more races have a 0-56 record
* Unless Falling you want a 1-2-3-4 position last time out
* 35 of the last 40 winners placed in their previous chase
* A horse that placed or fell on their penultimate run helps
* Past winners had the following places in their last Chase
* 5-2-3-3-5-2-F-W-W-W-3-W-4-2

Posted under Major Horse Races

Not our main full member bet of the day but we have a piece from our extra race analysis section for you.

YORK 2.45

Coral Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85)  2m2f

7/4 Descaro, 5/1 Head Hunted, 6/1 Tillietudlem, 8/1 Nemo Spirit 10/1 Act Of Kalanisi, 10/1 Dubara Reef, 10/1 Dulcie
12/1 Bollin Judith, 14/1 Sphinx, 25/1 Folk Tune.

* This is a Handicap over 18f for 0-82 rated horses
* October has had 41 handicaps like this over 17f-18f
* There were 85 similar races between September – November
* Horses from 13f or shorter had a 2-72 record
* None of these were exposed (0-22)
* None from 12f races were aged 5 or more (0-35)
* No horse doing had 8st 12lbs or more
* FOLK TUNE comes from 12f and fails all those angles
* NEMO SPIRIT also comes from 13f
* No horse managed that when aged 5 or more like him
* No horse managed that with his weight as well
* Aged 5 with only runs this season would worry me
* I think that and his weight and jump in trip hurt him
* I dont see him overcoming all those factors
* There was only 1 winner aged 9 or more
* SPHINX is surely too old as a 12 year old
* Especially with a 188 day absence as well
* DULCIE is a filly with 2 runs this season
* No filly won without at least 5 runs that season
* DULCIE looks underraced for a filly
* ACT OF KALANISI is a 4yo Male
* 4 year old males with 13 or more career starts are just 1-43
* Those running like him within a month were 0-35
* Those like him coming from 16f or shorter were 0-33
* ACT OF KALANISI doesnt come out well
* Its the Fillies aged 4 that do well in these races
* Male 4 year olds have a much weaker record
* I looked at 85 races between September and November
* I looked at Male 4 year olds coming from 14f or less
* Those that had 4 or more career starts were 0-53
* ACT OF KALANISI has a weak profile in my view
* TILLIETUDLEM  is a exposed 4yo Male
* In 41 similar races in October these types are 0-10
* I did find 3 winners like him in September races
* They all had more backclass than he does
* All 3 winners all ran within 2 weeks and he doesnt
* TILLIETUDLEM was beaten easily by DESCARO last time
* Even on better weight terms he will do well to reverse that form
* This is a harder race and he could well lack the class
* There is no encouragement from his profile
* DUBARA REEF is 3 and comes from a 3yo handicap
* Plenty of 3 year olds won like that with 7-12 starts
* None had 13 or more runs and DUBARA REEF has 14 runs
* DUBARA REEF is more exposed than ideal for a 3yo
* 3 year olds like him from 3yo handicaps over 14f won 2 races
* Those with 9 or more starts doing that were 0-9
* He really needs a few less runs to be ideal

POSSIBLES

* DESCARO is a exposed 4yo Male
* In 41 similar races in October these types are 0-10
* I did find 3 winners like him in September races
* They all had far more runs this year than he does
* They all had a lot more backclass as well
* All 3 winners all ran within 2 weeks and he doesnt
* That said he stays and won very easily last time
* Since running over longer trips he has looked progressive
* He probably has a far better chance than the stats imply
* This is a harder race though and he will be tested

SHORTLIST

* BOLLIN JUDITH is a 4yo filly with 19 career starts
* Fillies aged 4 with 13 or more starts were 3-18
* Those with 9st or lower running with 7 weeks are 3-13
* BOLLIN JUDITH has a good profile
* All her wins are on faster ground at 14f
* She stays 15f on soft ground seems to be fine
* She is from a stamina laden family but will she stay
* Interesting all 3 renewals of this race went to a Filly
* There are some concerns about trip and ground
* She has been underestimated for me in the betting
* I most fear Head Hunted in this race
* HEAD HUNTED is 3 and comes from a 2m handicap
* 3 year olds with that profile and 7-12 runs are 5-33
* Statistically he has a reasonable profile
* HEAD HUNTED has to show he stays

SPLIT STAKE BET

BOLLIN JUDITH 12/1 at bet365 – BoyleSports – Coral – s james
HEAD HUNTED 6/1 at bet365 – betfred – Ladbrokes – s james

Posted under horse racing tips