Saturday October 2nd

1 Daily Reccomendation

Newmarket 3.00

RAINFALL 7/1

Each Way

8/1 bet365 – Tote
15/2 Skybet – VC
7/1 betfred -Blue Square – BoyleSports -Corals -PaddyPower

NEWMARKET 3.00

Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes
(Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1)(3yo+) 1m

4/1 Music Show, 4/1 Sahpresa, 11/2 Seta, 11/2 Strawberrydaiquiri 6/1 Spacious,
7/1 Rainfall, 14/1 Aviate, 33/1 Alsace Lorraine 33/1 Hen Night, 33/1 Sent From Heaven, 40/1 Lahaleeb.

The Sun Chariot Stakes has 10 past renewals as a Group 2
or Group 1 race. In these races horses beaten more than 4
lengths last time out were 0-30 in this race.
All winners of this race were either 3 or 4 year olds.
SAHPRESA has that against her. If you look at horses with only 1-2-3 runs this season you found 2 winners.
None were aged 4 or more and None had 9 or more career starts and SAHPRESA fails both those angles.
Horses like SPACIOUS with 13 or more starts struggled.
Only 1 past winner had that many runs and that was only a 3 year old.
STRAWBERRYDAIQUIRI has been absent a while and I can’t match her.
AVIATE drops from  a 10f race and needed to have won last time to have been like any past winner.
I would shortlist 3 horses in this. It’s hard to ignore MUSIC SHOW or SETA and both look like big runners.
That said 3 year olds like MUSIC SHOW and SETA coming from an 8f race only had a 1-25 record
and  that winner was less exposed than MUSIC SHOW and was lighter raced than both.
I prefer RAINFALL from these 3.

* Horses aged 3
* Coming from a 7f race
* Form in Group 1 of Group 2 races
* 4 or more runs that season
* There were 3 horses with that profile in this race
* All 3 horses won in 2000 2006 and 2007
* RAINFALL has that profile
* Admittedly none 7 runs that season they all had 4-5-6 runs
* None tried though with 7 runs though and I’m overlooking that
* RAINFALL each way is my bet

I think she has been underestimate in a nicely frame race
and horses with very similar profiles were W W W in the
race so I see her as a very interesting runner.
She has one or two lengths to find with a couple of these but
that’s not impossible especially on this ground and I think
she has a serious chance of beating these from the best age group.

Posted under horse racing tips

Thanks for the positive feedback on last weekends 18/1 winner of the St Wilfred.  Nice to see a few of you re investing winnings in a full membership.

Another longish shot today for you.

CHESTER 2.20

Totepool Handicap (Div I) (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85)  6f18y

9/2 Tyfos, 11/2 Bahamian Lad, 11/2 Lucky Dan, 8/1 Luscivious 8/1 Roker Park, 8/1 Victorian Bounty, 12/1 Falasteen 12/1 Ursula, 14/1 Indian Trail, 14/1 Kingswinford
16/1 Conry, 20/1 Frognal, 20/1 Great Charm, 20/1 Methaaly.

This is a 6f Handicap for 0-85 rated horses. You want to avoid the high draws as you will know. The higher you go the safer it will be.  I would avoid horses drawn 11 and higher. METHAALY GREAT CHARM – INDIAN TRAIL and FALASTEEN have to go. I don’t like CONRY with 1 run this season. If you look at all exposed 4 year olds that come from 5f races the only winners in these races ran within 2 weeks. Those that did not were 0-33 and thats why I’d oppose LUCKY DAN. Exposed 4 year olds coming from 5f races struggled anyway and the only ones not only had a
recent race they all finished 1st or 2nd last time. Those beaten a length or more were 1-92 telling me FROGNAL is beatable and I am against him. LUSCIVIOUS won a 5f race last time. I was not convinced with him. Certainly no horse won again at 6f without a run within 2 weeks and I felt he lacked the right profile. If you look at Exposed Males that come from 6f handicaps and have a break of over a Month they struggled. Those with under 9 races
that season were 1-106. VICTORIAN BOUNTY fails that and
none were as lightly raced as he is this year. BAHAMIAN LAD won a 6f handicap last time. There were 6 exposed 5 year olds that did that but the ones that failed to run within 2 weeks were  0-13 and the evidence is that he’d be better with a recent run.

TYFOS – Scrapes on shortlist – worried about handicap mark.
ROKER PARK – Well treated but unsafe – Needs more runs

SELECTION – URSULA 14/1

Nb best price at free blog posting time now 12/1 at various bookmakers inc Coral VC s james bet365

She may be a Filly with an absence but she is unexposed and I’ve found 2 similar winners like her. She could be one of those that  either flops or wins. Statistically she is fine. I’d have liked a little better draw but its not impossible to win from there and she will love the ground and has hit form now and could impove again. I would consider a small bet at a big price and have a saver as well perhaps on Roker Park from a better draw.

Posted under horse racing tips

I have a full Account Bet today in the 4pm race at Ripon
for full members.

Here in the free blog today I thought I would put up a few quick thoughts
on Sandown however.

S A N D O W N

Want to deal with Sandown first as its not a great card
from my point of view mixing hurdles and flat races with
many big fields and trial races. Only want to skip over it.

The opening Handicap at 1pm has 7 renewals. This race
is for Jump and Flat Jockeys and it’s the only race of its
kind at this time of year so angles are thin on the ground.
The worst age group so far has been 4 year olds and I’d
predict an older runner will win. I am happy to oppose a
4yo from a 3yo handicap like Directorship -Kiss A Prince
and Aurora Sky and one from a maiden like Night Lily. I’d
oppose4 year olds like Sapphire Prince and Mr Udagawa
and Best In Class who were all well beaten last time. I am
against any 4yo like Black N Brew with an absence. The
other 4yo Striding Edge is also opposed. Carlitos Spirit
was beaten too far recently. I’d avoid Halsion Chancer
coming from a 6f race. I would shortlist 2 here. Normally
TWILIGHT STAR would have been chucked out with a
profile like his but he won this last year so he gets some
dispensation. MILLFIELDS DREAMS would be my best
hope in the race.

I thought the Listed race Hurdle at 1.30 was priced up
about right. All past winners were aged 5-6-7 with them
all having at least 4 runs that season and previous form
in either Grade 1 or Grade 2 class. Only two horses have
that profile in ASHKAZAR and PETIT ROBIN. There is
no point doing the next race as it’s ridiculous.

The Celebration Chase at 2.30 throws up a big problem
in what to do with TWIST MAGIC the favourite. He is
easily the best horse in the race and won the race last
year as well but just 4 days ago he refused to race and
that is a problem. That was in Ireland as well so he has
travelled there and back in a few days as well. I would
not want FIX THE RIB from a hurdle. Statistically there
is a poor record with horses from handicaps when they
drop in trip so I´M SO LUCKY and CHANINBAR lack
the profile of all past winners. OISEAU DE NUIT may
be the best option at the prices. His chance like all the
others may depend on whether TWIST MAGIC starts
or runs his race. TWIST MAGIC is the most likely one
but at the prices I like  OISEAU DE NUIT each way.

SANDOWN 3.05

bet365 Gold Cup Chase Handicap Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m5f110y

7/1 Fairoak Lad, 7/1 Just Amazing, 8/1 The Package,
10/1 Kilcrea Castle, 12/1 Lacdoudal, 12/1 Nostringsattached
14/1 Air Force One, 14/1 Hello Bud, 14/1 Hoo La Baloo
14/1 Tamarinbleu, 16/1 Lothian Falcon, 20/1 Church Island
20/1 Monkerhostin, 25/1 Alderburn, 25/1 Irish Raptor
28/1 My Will, 33/1 Killyglen, 33/1 Martys Mission 33/1 Nozic, 33/1 Piraya.

The 3.05pm bet365 Gold Cup is a Grade 3 Handicap over
3m 5f. Tough sort of race. The horses that I think will not
be Fit enough are MONKERHOSTIN – AIR FORCE ONE
NOZIC – LOTHIAN FALCON – IRISH RAPTOR. There’s
a poor record  horses of horses aged 10 or more (1-71) so
ALDERBURN -LACDOUDAL -  CHURCH ISLAND look
weak as 11 year olds. HELLO BUD is 12 and ran far too
well in the Grand National and surely wont recover. Its
asking too much for an exposed horse to defy a lengthy
absence so HOO LA BALOO is out. MARTYS MISSION
is up too far in trip. I’m uncomfortable JUST AMAZING
comes from a Novice Chase and also lacks any form in a
Graded race something 15 of the last 17 winners had. For
the same reason NOSTRINGSATTACHED is opposed.
TAMARINBLEU comes out badly with his absence. Its
asking too much of PIRAYA. The only 7 year olds that
won this were in form and placed last time and he didnt
and thats why he is opposed and THE PACKAGE has
similar problems and I don’t fancy him. KILLYGLEN did
not run well enough last week. MY WILL doesnt make
any appeal. I would shortlist two. KILCREA CASTLE
and FAIROAK LAD both unexposed look strongest.

SELECTION – FAIROAK LAD
SAVER – KILCREA CASTLE

The bet 365 Mile at 3.40pm is a high class Group 2 race.
Its a messy race statistically as 5 runners have had their
latest runs Abroad and no horse comes from the strong
trial race (Earl of Sefton) this year. PRINCE OF DANCE
and THE CHEKA look too inexperienced. No horse has
come from handicaps like FAREER. The last 22 winners
were all younger than PRESSING. One of the interesting
angles in this race is that horses aged 5 or more that are
running first time out are 0-44 in this race. It was only 4
year olds that won this on their seasonal debuts. If you
look at all seasonal debutants none won with 13 or more
starts so BEACON LODGE and  PACO BOY the shortest
priced horse have that to overcome. For me the strongest
3 are BORDER PATROL – CONFRONT – CAT JUNIOR. I
would look to one of these. The best bet given the going
may well be CONFRONT each way.

SANDOWN 4.15

bet365 Gordon Richards Stakes
(Group 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m2f7y

11/4 Crowded House, 7/2 Glass Harmonium, 4/1 Tranquil Tiger,
9/2 Laaheb, 13/2 Steele Tango, 12/1 Soul City, 16/1 Redwood.

The Gordon Richards Stakes (4.15pm) is unpleasant as
just 7 runners take place.  None of the past winners of
this race were as inexperienced as REDWOOD and not
one was as exposed as TRANQUIL TIGER. All the 4yo
seasonal debutant winners had Group class form in the
past and LAAHEB does not. Horses that had a recent
run and 13 or more career starts were 0-23 and that mix
is something STEELE TANGO has to overcome. I dont
like SOUL CITY much and doubt his stamina as well at
10f. Given a choice CROWDED HOUSE  has to make it
to the shortlist as does GLASS HARMONIUM. Tough
to split them but CROWDED HOUSE appeals more.

The 4.50 is a Class 2 Handicap over a Mile. Statistically
its a race that’s been messed about with over the years.
MUJOOD is out from a 6f race. SWIFT CHAP had some
problems up in trip. I don’t fancy DUNN’O. I dislike him
as he has 1 run this year and comes up in distance. The
52 similar races show 3 winners managing that but none
were exposed like him none were aged 5 or more as he is
and although DUNN’O won this last year it was with less
weight he wasnt exposed or up in distance. I am not too
keen on GENERAL ELIOTT from novice hurdles. I tried
to find winners like TARTAN GIGHA down from 10f in
the last few weeks but I couldnt match a strong enough
profile and MOUNT HADLEY also has that problem. It
bothers me CHAPTER AND VERSE has been sold and
downgraded stables late last season. That only leaves
MABAIT and although I think he’s plenty short enough
I can understand why he is a warm favourite.

Posted under horse racing tips

LINGFIELD 4.10

7/4 Becausewecan, 9/2 Dance The Star, 7/1 Cluain Alainn,
Samarinda, 10/1 Cashpoint.

This is a nasty framed race with 7 runners. Its a 0-92 handicap over 12 furlongs.
There has been 176 similar races at this time of year.
If you look at 4 year olds like BECAUSEWECAN who are having their
seasonal debuts when they have had 9 or more career starts their strike
rate dips dramatically and they have a 1-35 record with that winner having
far less weight. That would encourage me to oppose him first time out from his career high
handicap mark.  Equally no 4yo first time out debutant was like
CLUAIN ALAINN and he wouldnt interest me either. I think it is asking too
much of CASHPOINT to win this from a maiden and a small stable.
I think its between DANCE THE STAR and  SAMARINDA who finished
2nd and 5th in the same handicap  last time. DANCE THE STAR has a solid chance.
Statistically SAMARINDA has an excellent profile as a 7yo running well last time.
All his wins have been at shorter but he hasnt had a chance to show he stays properly
at 12f. He ran well over 12f last time but that was inconclusive.
He is probably value  but DANCE THE STAR did beat him last time.
I think I would have to bet one and save on another.
As SAMARINDA is better handicapped and a better price I’d see him as the best
option. Therefore DANCE THE STAR has to be the danger
but SAMARINDA the bet at around 7/1

SELECTION – SAMARINDA
7/1 betfred bet365

Posted under horse racing tips

Lingfield 2.10 – ALFIE TUPPER 7/2 Coral -  betfred – bet365

ALFIE TUPPER is still well handicapped and is in a
good spell of form having ran himself fit now and I
think he can win the 2.10pm. He has had excuses for
two very close defeats. He doesnt have many to beat
in this race and whilst everything at this track can be
vulnerable to fast finishers and how the race is run I
cant see this horse not going very close today and
win lose or draw I will be surprised if he is beaten by
more than a length and with luck in running can win.

LINGFIELD 2.10

Bet African Nations Cup – Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 1m2f

3/1 Alfie Tupper, 5/1 Atacama Sunrise, 6/1 Bavarica
7/1 Rapid City, 8/1 Jeer , 10/1 Charlie Smirke Bosamcliff
16/1 Society Venue, 25/1 Alqaahir 25/1 Maybe I Will
25/1 Whodunit.

This is a 10f Handicap and we have 350 of these races
at this time of year. Picking out a few poor profiles I’d
oppose MAYBE I WILL as a mare absent 230 days. I
oppose WHODUNIT from 7f with 1 run since March.
BAVARICA doesnt appeal as no exposed mare aged
7 or more defied a months absence in the 350 races. I
think RAPID CITY is a poor bet with 1 run since June.
SOCIETY VENUE looks underraced to me and I dont
want him from a career high mark. ALQAAHIR would
not be my first choice aged 8 absent 40 days. There
were a few winners like that but almost all had far less
weight and almost all had more backclass as well. It’s
hard to rate BOSAMCLIFF as she has been hurdling
but I dont really want a mare from hurdles and she is
respected but avoided. I looked at 4 year old fillies in
350 races like ATACAMA SUNRISE. I found 8 fillies
like her that  came from 10f handicaps but those who
ran within the past fortnight had a 0-50 record and it
was only those from a longer break that won. That’s
possibly a statistical blip but its a 0-50 record and I
dont see ATACAMA SUNRISE as safe because of
it. I looked at 4 year olds like CHARLIE SMIRKE who
came from Maidens with 9 or more career starts and
found a 2-66 record. To be fair to him both winners
were male like him and came from 8f maidens which
when applied turned into a 2-13 record so he’s fine.

CHARLIE SMIRKE – I have found 2 similar winners

JEER – I give him a chance as he is well handicapped

ALFIE TUPPER – Strong Profile

SELECTION

ALFIE TUPPER  Win Bet

Posted under horse racing tips