A s c o t   2.35

4/1 Smad Place, 5/1 A Bridge Too Far, 11/2 Ciceron
6/1 Shoreacres, 13/2 Joseph Lister, 7/1 Royal Charm
12/1 Pateese, 16/1 Orzare, 16/1 Rowan Tiger
20/1 Tara Rose.

* This is a Graded Handicap Hurdle just short of 2m 4f
* Statistically there are only 5 renewals to consider
* 5 year olds have  yet to win this race.
* SMAD PLACE wouldnt interest me because of that
* Especially not first time out when not 100% fit
* JOSEPH LISTER is also rejected as a 5yo
* He looks short of runs with just 3 hurdle races
* You would have thought lightly raced hurdlers are best
* Thats not the case in this race
* Winners had 16 12 32 20 17 previous hurdle runs
* That shows this goes to experienced hurdlers
* ROWAN TIGER is out with 4 runs from a Novice Hurdle
* A BRIDGE TOO FAR has only had 6 hurdle starts
* Without Graded backclass I dont see a strong case
* TARA ROSE – Rejected as a mare with just 4 runs
* ORZARE wouldnt interest me first time out
* ROYAL CHARM doesnt offer me enough
* Not keen that he comes from a Chase
* Not sure he is fit enough
* Not convinced he is weighted to win anyway
* CICERON – I thought he had a fair chance
* CICERON is potentially a saver
* PATEESE – Comes here after well beaten last time
* He had excuses and should strip fitter
* Not long ago he was favourite for the Greatwood Hurdle
* I think he is worth a saver

S e l e c t i o n

SHOREACRES

I like the chance of SHOREACRES. He has had 2 Hurdle
starts since switching from Chasing. He never really took
to fences but did manage a win from 8 Chase starts. Look
back before he went Chasing. This horse managed a 4th
in the Champion Bumper and a decent 7th in a Supreme
Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham. That shows he has plenty
of class. He then went Chasing with limited success but a
couple of hurdle runs recently shows me he can win this.
He does have fewer hurdle runs than all past winners did
but he is plenty experienced because of his chasing races.
I think his last two runs show him in top form and with
a strong form chance. He likes right handed tracks and
is very fit and it’s hard to see him being far away here.

Selection

SHOREACRES Some 7/1 and 13/2 was available earlier when full members got this.
11/2 now top bookmaker price at Ladbrokes, bet365 and VC
Each way I would suggest

Or alternately if you like bet it on the nose with a saver bet on
PATEESE at 10/1 bet365 betfred Sky Ladbrokes BoyleSports

For more info on my private service see here ==> Betting Advice

.

Posted under horse racing tips

Before todays free tip a bit of bookmaker news for Cheltenham worth noting.

Boyles have a very good Cheltenham day 1 offer where you can get stakes of up to £250 per race refunded if your horse comes second in the following Cheltenham day 1 races.

1.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2.05 Arkle Challenge Trophy
2.40 Festival Handicap Steeple Chase
3.20 Champion Hurdle

Also worth noting that they offer best price guarantees.

If you are new  to Boyles they will also give you the addition of a free £20 bet.

Full info on their site .

Click Here ==> BoyleSports

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HAYDOCK 3.20

Totesport.com Grand National Trial
(Handicap Chase) Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m4f

11/2 West End Rocker, 13/2 Carruthers, 7/1 Mobaasher
8/1 King Fontaine, 8/1 Silver By Nature, 9/1 Le Beau Bai
9/1 Nicto De Beauchene, 10/1 Major Malarkey, 10/1 Sarde
20/1 Ballyfitz, 25/1 Etxalar, 25/1 Madison Du Berlais
33/1 Jaunty Journey, 40/1 Sound Accord.

* This is a 3m 4f Handicap Chase.
* Haydock’s has had 14 renewals of this race

This is a Grand National trial and I think we should split the runners
into two categories. First of all the in form horses in the race that ran
very well last time out and who are likely to be here to do their best.
Secondly the horses well beaten last time that might be using the race
to put the finishing touches on their Grand National chance.
Thats certainly looks like it has happened in the past as only In Form horses win this race.

* Last time out winners won 6 past renewals
* Last time out seconds won 4 past renewals
* Last time out 1st 2nd or 3rd won 12 of the 14 renewals
* Only 2 of the past winners were not placed last time
* One of these was 5th last time but had a long absence
* Another Fell at the 1st on their last run but won before it

I think you need to be against the horses that didnt run
very well last time. SILVER BY NATURE looks one to
oppose beaten too far last time and its interesting only 2
of the 14 winners carried 11st 4lbs or more. I would also
be against MADISON DU BERLAIS and CARRUTHERS
both high weights and not doing enough last time. Harder
to rule out CARRUTHERS. He isnt too unlike the winner
in 2008 (Miko De Beauchene) who had won the Chepstow
Welsh National and won this after a break aged 8 absent a
fair while. CARRUTHERS though has a longer break and
was well beaten last time and is only a small horse who is
best in a very small field and has never been placed in any
prior handicap. SOUND ACCORD – JAUNTY JOURNEY
and ETXALAR are all horses that failed to do enough last
time out. I dont see BALLYFITZ as straight enough to be
winning and you’d expect him to be laid out for Aintree if
he gets in that race. The only winners from a Novice race
ran within 2 weeks and MAJOR MALARKEY has got 66
days absence and No past winners came from any Novice
Handicap to win. I’ve looked at every Handicap Chase in
March and Febuary in Class 2 and Higher and thats all 329
races at any distance in those grades. If you look at 7 year
olds that have No Graded form before and also have 13 or
more career starts you do not find many winners and none
were like SARDE. None had as long an absence or won at
this distance and none managed to win having only 2 runs
that season and I dont see SARDE having enough to win
this. There is an interesting angle about backclass because
12 of the 14 winners of this race had past form in either
a Listed or Graded race before. KING FONTAINE doesn’t
have that. He seems to have plenty of weight for a horse
without it. The only winners of this race without Listed or
Graded form had much less weight than he does and having
been raised 15lbs for his last win he has quite a bit to prove
and his trainer has said the 15lbs rise was harsh.

SHORTLIST

WEST END ROCKER
MOBAASHER
NICTO DE BEAUCHENE
LE BEAU BAI

The issue with WEST END ROCKER s whether he has
recovered from a hard race at Warwick. Similar winners
of that race finished 4 6 11 in this race. Statistically he  is
respectable and earns a shortlist place comfortably.
I like MOBAASHER as he is a promising chaser who
has a progressive profile and looks well handicapped on his
hurdles form. Against him is he hasnt raced over fences this
season yet and I hope it doesnt catch him out.
It’s interesting NICTO DE BEAUCHENE’s full brother has
won this race before much as he was classier. He lacks a
run in Graded Class but both winners that lacked that did
look similar with a months break and a good last run and
I see NICTO DE BEAUCHENE as a serious runner. The
other option is mud loving LE BEAU BAI who finished
3rd in this race last year and should be thereabouts again.
The overnight rain swings me towards LE BEAU BAI.

SELECTION

LE BEAU BAI 9/1 in various spots
Ladbrokes , Sky , bet365, William Hill etc

Each Way

Posted under horse racing tips

I have a full Account Bet for full members today but due to respect for them

I can’t put it up here.

What I do have for you however on the free betting blog is some analysis for another race today.

This is just a small snippet from the full member message.

SANDOWN 2.45

Chemring Group Handicap Chase
(for The Alanbrooke Challenge Cup)
(CLASS 3) (5yo+ 0-135) 3m110y

5/2 Shillingstone, 4/1 Any Currency, 6/1 Ma Yahab,
8/1 Double Eagle, 9/1 Isn´t That Lucky, 12/1 Bowleaze,
14/1 Maktu ,14/1 Mount Sandel, 20/1 Wind Instrument
50/1 Offaly.

* This is a 3m Handicap Chase for 0-135 rated horses
* Sandown has had 27 similar races at this time of year
* There are 233 similar races elsewhere

This has been a lightweights race. The 27 Sandown races
show horses with 11st 10lbs or more having a 1-47 record.
SHILLINGSTONE doesnt appeal to me off topweight. He
looks vulnerable mixing a high weight with an absence as
a very lightly raced horse. You wont find a winner in 233
races anywhere that had a 7 week absence and a weight
or more than 11st 6lbs when as lightly raced as He is so
I am opposing SHILLINGSTONE. I think OFFALY looks
outclassed. MOUNT SANDEL has too much to do with
just 1 run this year and a large weight. I cant see a horse
like that winning. WIND INSTRUMENT has 2 poor runs
on his 2 runs this season and looks out of form. I think it
is likely BOWLEAZE is being aimed at the Kim Muir next
month. Besides that look at the 233 similar handicaps for
exposed horses that had not run in 10 weeks and there is
a 0-66 record there suggesting BOWLEAZE wont be fit.
ISN´T THAT LUCKY has a poor profile. He has to come
from 2m 4f with just two runs this year and no horse did
that in 233 races and he has a nasty absence as well. I
dont see MA YAHAB as the best option not exposed
and with just one run this season.

SHORTLIST

MAKTU
DOUBLE EAGLE
ANY CURRENCY

OR JAUNE has a strong profile. He is very similar to the
1992 winner and last years winner and he looks very well
treated at the moment. I like MAKTU who comes from a
Novice Handicap Chase. He is light on experience with
4 chase runs but his profile is interesting. Another lighter raced horse is DOUBLE EAGLE but he is unexposed and
comes out well statistically. ANY CURRENCY probably
has the strongest profile with the worry from his profile
the fact his trainer states he is only 90% ready and this
is a prep race for Cheltenham.

SELECTION

MAKTU 7/1

ANY CURRENCY (Saver 7/2)

Posted under horse racing tips

No Account Bet

Twelve races previewed today however for full members.

I have picked a random one for todays free blog.

DONCASTER 4.35

Blue Squareuare Supporting Marie Curie Cancer Care
Maiden Hurdle (CLASS 4) (5yo+) 3m110y

7/4 Wayward Prince, 7/2 South Leinster, 11/2 Penylan Star
10/1 Bally Sands, 10/1 Basford Lady, 12/1 Eros Moon
12/1 Florarossa, 14/1 Supreme Plan, 20/1 Collyns Avenue
20/1 Saddlers Mount, 25/1 Maska Pony, 40/1 Hi Ho Silvia
150/1 Secret Gift, 200/1 Just Chrissie, 200/1 Rosie Larkin.

* This is a Maiden Hurdle over 3m
* January and Febuary have had 60 of these races.

The 60 similar races point to the big two runners at the head of the betting.
If you take horses that come from Bumpers you find a poor 2-102 record.
None of them had just one run (0-39) or were aged 5 (0-22) so PENYLAN
STAR fitting both those stats is a Negative. EROS MOON also fails that and
is a negative. Female horses have a poor 2-118 record. None of them had
under 5 runs. None were Unplaced last time out and those that came from
2m 4f or shorter were 0-58 so It’s easy to oppose both BASFORD LADY
and FLORAROSSA. I can not find a winner like MASKA PONY but he’d
probably be best outsider. I cant find a horse like BALLY SANDS in 60
races beaten so far last time so recently and surely it’s asking a lot for him to
overcome that so soon. No horse was beaten as far as SADDLERS MOUNT
after just 1 run. The outsiders look opposable.
I see this between 2 horses. SOUTH LEINSTER  is respected
but I fancy WAYWARD PRINCE to win

Selection -WAYWARD PRINCE

7/4 when advised to full members earlier but now best priced 5/4 at Coral Sky sportingbet

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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Check For Best Prices at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/odds/horses
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Posted under horse racing tips

No Account Bet

I’m not having an account bet today as I do
not like anything strongly enough. Every Bet
will now be an account bet but that does not
mean we should have bets when they’re not
strong enough and I’ve been here before on
this particular Saturday. The card at Lingfield
doesnt offer much so the only option is soft
and sloppy ground and the National Hunt.

It will take a day or two to settle down into a
rhythm and get the timing right but whilst its
a positive long term change we shouldnt be
falling over ourselves to have bets when the
racing doesnt throw us much.

I have looked at quite a few races for Full Members.
Here is one of them for the free blog.

HAYDOCK 1.45

4/1 Garleton, Huka Lodge , 7/1 Sherwoods Folly, Supreme Keano
8/1 Never So Blue 10/1 Jaunty Journey, Malko De Beaumont 14/1
Boris The Blade 14/1 Himalayan Trail.

This is a 3m 4f Handicap Chase for horses rated 0-129.
There have been 68 similar races at this time of year.
None of the 68 winners were 13 years old or more like HUKA LODGE.
I dont fancy him for the following reasons.

* Since 1994 there has been 605 similar 3m 4f handicaps
* Thats any time of year and between 3m 3f and 3m 5f
* Horses aged 13 or more won 10 of the 605 races
* Only 1 horse that age defied a months absence

HUKA LODGE is vulnerable as a 13yo. No horse as old as
HIMALAYAN TRAIL defied such an absence. I dont like
MALKO DE BEAUMONT’s chance. BORIS THE BLADE
doesnt look good enough. I think the weight could beat
JAUNTY JOURNEY an inexperience horse who hasnt yet
completed in a handicap. SHERWOODS FOLLY has a
chance but a tough weight and I didnt think he would win.

GARLETON – Strong Profile and likely winner
SUPREME KEANO – Great chance if he can jump well
NEVER SO BLUE – Good chance – Local owners – Has to stay

SELECTION – GARLETON  9/2 Sky
SAVER – NEVER SO BLUE 17/2 Sky & VC

Posted under horse racing tips