I have a full Account Bet for full members today but due to respect for them

I can’t put it up here.

What I do have for you however on the free betting blog is some analysis for another race today.

This is just a small snippet from the full member message.

SANDOWN 2.45

Chemring Group Handicap Chase
(for The Alanbrooke Challenge Cup)
(CLASS 3) (5yo+ 0-135) 3m110y

5/2 Shillingstone, 4/1 Any Currency, 6/1 Ma Yahab,
8/1 Double Eagle, 9/1 Isn´t That Lucky, 12/1 Bowleaze,
14/1 Maktu ,14/1 Mount Sandel, 20/1 Wind Instrument
50/1 Offaly.

* This is a 3m Handicap Chase for 0-135 rated horses
* Sandown has had 27 similar races at this time of year
* There are 233 similar races elsewhere

This has been a lightweights race. The 27 Sandown races
show horses with 11st 10lbs or more having a 1-47 record.
SHILLINGSTONE doesnt appeal to me off topweight. He
looks vulnerable mixing a high weight with an absence as
a very lightly raced horse. You wont find a winner in 233
races anywhere that had a 7 week absence and a weight
or more than 11st 6lbs when as lightly raced as He is so
I am opposing SHILLINGSTONE. I think OFFALY looks
outclassed. MOUNT SANDEL has too much to do with
just 1 run this year and a large weight. I cant see a horse
like that winning. WIND INSTRUMENT has 2 poor runs
on his 2 runs this season and looks out of form. I think it
is likely BOWLEAZE is being aimed at the Kim Muir next
month. Besides that look at the 233 similar handicaps for
exposed horses that had not run in 10 weeks and there is
a 0-66 record there suggesting BOWLEAZE wont be fit.
ISN´T THAT LUCKY has a poor profile. He has to come
from 2m 4f with just two runs this year and no horse did
that in 233 races and he has a nasty absence as well. I
dont see MA YAHAB as the best option not exposed
and with just one run this season.

SHORTLIST

MAKTU
DOUBLE EAGLE
ANY CURRENCY

OR JAUNE has a strong profile. He is very similar to the
1992 winner and last years winner and he looks very well
treated at the moment. I like MAKTU who comes from a
Novice Handicap Chase. He is light on experience with
4 chase runs but his profile is interesting. Another lighter raced horse is DOUBLE EAGLE but he is unexposed and
comes out well statistically. ANY CURRENCY probably
has the strongest profile with the worry from his profile
the fact his trainer states he is only 90% ready and this
is a prep race for Cheltenham.

SELECTION

MAKTU 7/1

ANY CURRENCY (Saver 7/2)

Posted under horse racing tips

No Account Bet

Twelve races previewed today however for full members.

I have picked a random one for todays free blog.

DONCASTER 4.35

Blue Squareuare Supporting Marie Curie Cancer Care
Maiden Hurdle (CLASS 4) (5yo+) 3m110y

7/4 Wayward Prince, 7/2 South Leinster, 11/2 Penylan Star
10/1 Bally Sands, 10/1 Basford Lady, 12/1 Eros Moon
12/1 Florarossa, 14/1 Supreme Plan, 20/1 Collyns Avenue
20/1 Saddlers Mount, 25/1 Maska Pony, 40/1 Hi Ho Silvia
150/1 Secret Gift, 200/1 Just Chrissie, 200/1 Rosie Larkin.

* This is a Maiden Hurdle over 3m
* January and Febuary have had 60 of these races.

The 60 similar races point to the big two runners at the head of the betting.
If you take horses that come from Bumpers you find a poor 2-102 record.
None of them had just one run (0-39) or were aged 5 (0-22) so PENYLAN
STAR fitting both those stats is a Negative. EROS MOON also fails that and
is a negative. Female horses have a poor 2-118 record. None of them had
under 5 runs. None were Unplaced last time out and those that came from
2m 4f or shorter were 0-58 so It’s easy to oppose both BASFORD LADY
and FLORAROSSA. I can not find a winner like MASKA PONY but he’d
probably be best outsider. I cant find a horse like BALLY SANDS in 60
races beaten so far last time so recently and surely it’s asking a lot for him to
overcome that so soon. No horse was beaten as far as SADDLERS MOUNT
after just 1 run. The outsiders look opposable.
I see this between 2 horses. SOUTH LEINSTER  is respected
but I fancy WAYWARD PRINCE to win

Selection -WAYWARD PRINCE

7/4 when advised to full members earlier but now best priced 5/4 at Coral Sky sportingbet

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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Posted under horse racing tips

No Account Bet

I’m not having an account bet today as I do
not like anything strongly enough. Every Bet
will now be an account bet but that does not
mean we should have bets when they’re not
strong enough and I’ve been here before on
this particular Saturday. The card at Lingfield
doesnt offer much so the only option is soft
and sloppy ground and the National Hunt.

It will take a day or two to settle down into a
rhythm and get the timing right but whilst its
a positive long term change we shouldnt be
falling over ourselves to have bets when the
racing doesnt throw us much.

I have looked at quite a few races for Full Members.
Here is one of them for the free blog.

HAYDOCK 1.45

4/1 Garleton, Huka Lodge , 7/1 Sherwoods Folly, Supreme Keano
8/1 Never So Blue 10/1 Jaunty Journey, Malko De Beaumont 14/1
Boris The Blade 14/1 Himalayan Trail.

This is a 3m 4f Handicap Chase for horses rated 0-129.
There have been 68 similar races at this time of year.
None of the 68 winners were 13 years old or more like HUKA LODGE.
I dont fancy him for the following reasons.

* Since 1994 there has been 605 similar 3m 4f handicaps
* Thats any time of year and between 3m 3f and 3m 5f
* Horses aged 13 or more won 10 of the 605 races
* Only 1 horse that age defied a months absence

HUKA LODGE is vulnerable as a 13yo. No horse as old as
HIMALAYAN TRAIL defied such an absence. I dont like
MALKO DE BEAUMONT’s chance. BORIS THE BLADE
doesnt look good enough. I think the weight could beat
JAUNTY JOURNEY an inexperience horse who hasnt yet
completed in a handicap. SHERWOODS FOLLY has a
chance but a tough weight and I didnt think he would win.

GARLETON - Strong Profile and likely winner
SUPREME KEANO - Great chance if he can jump well
NEVER SO BLUE - Good chance - Local owners - Has to stay

SELECTION - GARLETON  9/2 Sky
SAVER - NEVER SO BLUE 17/2 Sky & VC

Posted under horse racing tips

TOWCESTER 3.05

5/4 Ayemdee, 13/8 Cartier Opera, 13/2 Kinkeel,
10/1 Champagne Star, 14/1 My Matilda.

This is another small field Handicap Chase over 2m 6f and
there has been 632 of these races in November -December.
I looked at Mares like MY MATILDA that ran within the
past 2 weeks. There were 7 winners but none ran as badly
as she did last time and none came up from 2m 4f or less so
I see her as having a poor profile. CHAMPAGNE STAR is
also a mare and didnt do enough for me last time and is very
inexperienced over fences. KINKEEL has a very shaky look to his profile.
All three runs this season look awful and with a recent run surely
he hasn’t enough time to bounce back to form. AYEMDEE and
CARTIER OPERA look best and both have ran well in a recent
handicap chase. I looked at all the similar types that have done that.
Both have profiles that won similar races and I like both these horses.
Its arguable AYEMDEE has the better profile. He is younger by 3 years
and less exposed and he doesnt have to step up in distance as CARTIER
OPERA has to do. You could argue his jumping may be safer but I think
CARTIER OPERA is a better bet.

AYEMDEE has only had 1 chase run. I tipped him in that
last time when he won and it was a dreadful race and I just
assumed last time that as it was such a bad race he couldnt
help winning if he could jump. On reflection though I am
more drawn to CARTIER OPERA. This is a huge horse
and took a long time to get on a racecourse. Whatever his
problems the only conclusion you could have is that he was
a well handicapped horse when he won here in November in
a Novice Handicap. That looks a better race than the only
chase run AYEMDEE ran and won in. CARTIER OPERA
won that day off 74. Today he is now only still rated 82.
The question I ask myself is what would he have been rated
had he won a couple more races just as he should have done.

Three runs ago he was going well when unseating rider at
Hereford. He would have bolted in two runs ago at Taunton
but for falling at the last. He should really be on a mark in the 90’s by now.
He jumped round Towcester and placed last time in a Handicap Chase.
If this horse can jump round he is a very well treated horse.
Going up in trip has to help today as it will slow the pace down.
We know he loves thecourse. Yes there are jumping worries but the
small field and longer trip has to help and he has far more chasing
experience than AYEMDEE has had. Dont forget that although
AYEMDEE won on his only Chase start he made mistakes that
day too and wasnt foot perfect. CARTIER OPERA has at least
had much more experience. Given a couple of fewer mistakes in
recent races that he had at his mercy tells me that he would  have
gone up a lot more in the handicaps and would not only  have been
Topweight today - Theres every chance he wouldnt be eligable to be
running in a 0-95 and could have been rated higher than this ceiling.
The horse has proven raw ability on
the Flat. I think given the small field and given he is 2/1 in a race
where few can win CARTIER OPERA is an excellent bet

SELECTION - CARTIER OPERA
2/1 PaddyPower s james Ladbrokes

Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday Racing Tip

A snippet of the anlaysis from my full service today for the free blog.

KEMPTON 3.10

RACING POST CHASE (HANDICAP)
GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)  3m

4/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Hold Em, 10/1 Nacarat, 12/1
Fier Normand, 12/1 Possol, 14/1 Conna Castle, 14/1 Fleet
Street, 14/1 Lacdoudal, 14/1 Ungaro, 16/1 Oedipe, 16/1
Silverburn, 20/1 Laskari, 20/1 Piraya, 25/1 Battlecry, 33/1 Endless Power, 33/1 Nozic, 40/1 New Little Bric, 40/1 Stan, 66/1 Billyvoddan, 100/1 Ollie Magern.

The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3 miles and
we now have 15 renewals of this race. Some statistics should be able to narrow the field down. You want a horse thats ran over at least 3 miles before. A Guaranteed stayer and horses that prepped over 2m 4f or shorter have poor records so I am against NACARAT who has real stamina issues and also ENDLESS POWER whose up in distance. OLLIE MAGERN is too old. Horses that had just 1 or 2 runs that season had terrible records. only Innox managed it from 49 that tried and that was not run at Kempton and ideally you want more runs this season. Therefore I am against SILVERBURN who may not be at home over this trip. Other underraced horses are BILLYVODDAN- OEDIPE -NEW LITTLE BRICK and LACDOUDAL. You really dont want to be coming into the race having ran poorly. Last time out winners won 11 of the last 15 races and every past winner was 1-2-3-4-5 last time out with just one falling. STAN - NOZIC fail that. Didn’t feel BATTLECRY did enough last time. Neither did PIRAYA a horse with too many falls recently. You want a high class and consistent horse thats been running well all year. The Last 13 winners  of this race ran 48 seperate times in the season they won. In these 48 races in the season they won - the last 13 winners managed to either Win or Place in a very high 42 out of 48 races. You want consistency here so I am taking on the Irish runner CONNA CASTLE whose hardly placed at all. Its interesting that BIG FELLA THANKS and HOLD EM have had just 5 career races over fences and thats not many. You can argue BIG FELLA THANKS has just 4.5 chase runs as he has fallen before. The lightest raced chaser to win this was
Gloria Victus with just 5 career starts so it has been done but He was “special” and a monster of a horse. The last 13 horses that won this had  7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 chase runs. There were a couple with 6 runs and Gloria Victus with 5 but its a big ask. I dont feel HOLD EM will have the class to defy that and he is rated lower than most past winners. I am also opposing BIG FELLA THANKS. Inexperience is one reason. Then you have the price which is short enough anyway and many are raising the fact that all his best form is on a left handed track and Kempton could be an issue for him and he hasnt got round the only time he ran here. I do not think LASKARI has the class or stamina from a sire thats never had a 3m winner and he has been on the go too long for me. FIER NORMAND isnt for me. He has 2 runs this year and he fell in his 3rd start so technically he is underraced this year
and I would be concerned he will be having a Cheltenham “prep” race and Jonjo has never had a horse in this race that could be sighted with binoculars. I am shortlisting these three

UNGARO - POSSOL - FLEET STREET

I dont see why UNGARO cant win. He fell at the second
fence in last years race but is it not interesing that last
year he started only 5/1 yet he carries 13lbs less weight
today. He has prepped in the same race as last year and
I give gim a good chance. I have found a winner that was
similar to POSSOL so he is shortlisted. FLEET STREET
also comes ot nicely statistically. I am going with an e/w
bet on UNGARO in this race

* He loves it here and won a Grade 1 here
* He was half the price in last years race with far more weight
* Last time out he was second to todays favourite
* Big Fella Thanks beat him by 11 lengths
* At Todays weights UNGARO has a much better chance

SELECTION - UNGARO Each Way 14/1  Blue Squareuareuare

CentreBet are currently showing 112/1 for this horse

Don’t expect to get paid out at that however . it looks like a palpable error to me.

Think what they meant was 12/1

Posted under horse racing tips