Great St Wilfrid Stakes

Great St Wilfrid Stakes
(Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

This is one of the Big races tomorrow. I have
previewed the race below and am sending this now.
I will finish the conclusion for full members when
I know the ground tomorrow.

 

* The Great St Wilfrid is a Class 2 handicap over 6f
* Ripon has had 21 renewals of this race
* There are 52 similar races in August
* I want to start with the Draw
* Since 2011 Ripon have had 22 handicaps
* Thats 22 handicaps over 6f with 12 + runners
* Horses drawn 1 or 2 had a 0-42 record
* No horses drawn 18 or higher won either
* To be fair only a very few tried to win from stall 18+
* All 22 winners were drawn between 3 and 17  
* SPINATRIX has a poor draw in Stall 1
* BORDERLESCOTT  has a poor draw in Stall 1
 *I looked at 52 similar handicaps in August
* I looked at horses from 5f races
* These horses struggled without a run within 2 weeks
* The only horses overcoming this were lightly raced 3yo’s
* I looked at horses aged 4 or more from 5f races
* Those without a run within 2 weeks were 0-97
* BORDERLESCOTT just fails that
* As he is 11 with just 2 runs this year he is rejected
* CONFESSIONAL is out from 5f but 50 days ago
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time have struggled
* Only last years winner overcame this in 21 past renewals
* THUNDERBALL – POLSKI MAX – BLAINE fail this
* I can’t make any case for those three horses
* POLSKI MAX and BLAINE are 3yo Males
* 3yo Males have a 0-32 record in this race
* REGAL PARADE is unsafe as a 9yo
* Exposed 5 year olds with 21 + runs struggled
* They have a 3-195 record in these races
* DR RED EYE fails this and has never won at 6f before
* EL VIENTO is also an exposed 5 year old
* He has never won off his current rating before
* He’s running well and many will fancy him
* SPINATRIX is an exposed 5yo as well
* She is a Mare Drawn 1 which is a worry
* SPINATRIX is up in class to a grade she hasn’t won in
* She has to do this from a career high mark of 100 too
* LOUIS THE PIOUS is an exposed 5yo
* We know similar horses have a 3-195 record
* He’s never won a Class 2 handicap before in 16 tries
* He’s never won from this handicap mark either
* Running well he could win but his profiles weak
* ZACYNTHUS has a career high mark
* As he has never raced over this distance he is out
* The highest rated winner of this race was 101
* Recent winners had the following ratings
* 99 87 95 94 100 92 98 99 80 98 96 83 85 75 101 83 95
* HOOF IT has his work cut out rated 109
* Especially when only having 2 runs this season
* CAPTAIN RAMIUS has to defy a rating of 107
* Thats as a 7yo with a 121 day absence so he is out
* BACCARAT is a 4 year old with just 7 runs
* There were 18 winners aged 4 in the 52 races
* 17 of the 18 winners had 13 or more career starts
* BACCARAT only has 7 career starts
* Horses aged 4 with under 13 career starts were just 1-73
* That horse (Hidden Dragon) won this race in 2003
* He had 11 runs though 4 more than BACCARAT
* BACCARAT is very lightly raced for a 4yo
* He only has 3 runs this year less than many here
* He’s progressive and has been gambled
* He looks like the return to sprinting is what he wants
* He’s had good excuses for defeats so lots to like
* Its simply that no 4yo has won anywhere like him
* Considering he is also short at 5/1 he is rejected
* SUMMERINTHECITY is an exposed 6yo
* Coming from 6f he last ran over 2 weeks ago
* Similar horses had a 0-62 record
* Closest was Markab the 2009 winner of this
* He had that profile with 14 days absence
* SUMMERINTHECITY has 21 days off a bit more than ideal
* I could overlook that extra 7 days
* He has been raised in the weights for losing though
* That seems unfair and it hurts his chance
* RODRIGO DE TORRES is an exposed 6yo
* Coming from 6f he last ran over 2 weeks ago
* Similar horses had a 0-62 record
* Closest was Markab the 2009 winner of this
* He had that profile with 14 days absence
* RODRIGO DE TORRES has 7 extra days to defy
* He’s more positive than negative
* He has no Ripon form though and I prefer others

My Early Draft Shortlist

* DICK BOS is 4 and has 11 career starts
* The 2011 winner had the same profile
* That makes him a positive but I’d prefer more runs

* PRODIGALITY is 5 and has 19 career starts
* I looked at all 5 year olds with 16-21 career runs
* I Found a 2-25 record with this profile
* Both horses achieved more than he did last time
* I can excuse that as he had an impossible draw
* Drawn 1 at Goodwood when stalls 26 25 28 dominated
* Unlikely stable to win but he has a chance

* PEARL ICE is 5 and has 13 career starts
* I looked at 5 year old males with 11-12-13-14-15 runs
* I found an encouraging 3-19 record
* Take out those from 5f races
* Take out the fillies in this record
* Take out the ones that were well beaten last time
* This improves that record to 3-10
* All 3 winners had 3-4 runs this season like him
* PEARL ICE has a very solid profile
* He has a 2 W record at this track
* I used to think the race he just won was a bad trial race
* The 2011 winner did win from that race

* SECRET WITNESS is a 7 year old
* There were 5 winners aged 7 or more
* They all ran within 2 weeks like him
* They all came from 6f and were well raced that year
* SECRET WITNESS’s profile isn’t too bad
* The dilemma is should we ignore Stall 20 here
* In the 2011 renewals 1st 3 home were drawn 17 20 19
* Mid division in this last year he’s much lower in the weights

Best Wishes
Guy
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Newbury Racing Tip

Newbury  4.10

5/6 Unioniste, 7/2 Hadrian4s Approach
4/1 Our Father, 6/1 Same Difference
150/1 Henry Hurst.

* This is a 3m Novice Chase
* I see this as an interesting little race
* UNIONISTE upset me last time back in December
* He was a 4yo running in a Cheltenham handicap chase
* I oppose him that day for this reason
* No 4yo had ever won a Cheltenham Handicap Chase before
* I was upset when UNIONISTE broke that statistic
* He made a Mug of me so I dont underestimate him
* He will also improve at this distance today
* However he is now 5 and this is Febuary
* I looked at every 3m Novice Chase in Febuary
* Horses aged 5 had a weak 1-26 record
* The only winner was a horse called Japhet
* He started 2/9 favourite long odds on
* He only won a 3 runner race and he had Grade 1 form
* All the other 5 year olds trying this were beaten
* UNIONISTE – He cant appeal at odds on
* HENRY HURST is outclassed
* SAME DIFFERENCE has quite a lot to prove
* OUR FATHER – I suppose he has to be respected
* Funny horse who probably needs to be fresh
* I think he flopped last time as the race came too soon
* Hard to read we cant know if he will hold his form
* There seems a safer option to me

* This horse has a good profile
* Horses aged 6
* Coming from a Grade1-2 Chase
* There were 8 horses with this profile
* They finished W W W W W 3 F W
* Thats a 6-8 record
* The last to try won in 2010 (Burton Port)
* HADRIAN4S APPROACH is the selection

Selection

HADRIAN’S APPROACH 3/1
Quite a lot of 3/1 or more about earlier when full members got this
but now only sportingbet at those odds. You are looking at 11/4 perhaps as sportingbet who are not exactly renowed as a high stakes layer will cave in quickly no doubt.

Best Live Odds  available here

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2013-02-09/newbury/16-10/betting/

Posted under horse racing tips

Racing Tip For Ascot

A s c o t   2.35

4/1 Smad Place, 5/1 A Bridge Too Far, 11/2 Ciceron
6/1 Shoreacres, 13/2 Joseph Lister, 7/1 Royal Charm
12/1 Pateese, 16/1 Orzare, 16/1 Rowan Tiger
20/1 Tara Rose.

* This is a Graded Handicap Hurdle just short of 2m 4f
* Statistically there are only 5 renewals to consider
* 5 year olds have  yet to win this race.
* SMAD PLACE wouldnt interest me because of that
* Especially not first time out when not 100% fit
* JOSEPH LISTER is also rejected as a 5yo
* He looks short of runs with just 3 hurdle races
* You would have thought lightly raced hurdlers are best
* Thats not the case in this race
* Winners had 16 12 32 20 17 previous hurdle runs
* That shows this goes to experienced hurdlers
* ROWAN TIGER is out with 4 runs from a Novice Hurdle
* A BRIDGE TOO FAR has only had 6 hurdle starts
* Without Graded backclass I dont see a strong case
* TARA ROSE – Rejected as a mare with just 4 runs
* ORZARE wouldnt interest me first time out
* ROYAL CHARM doesnt offer me enough
* Not keen that he comes from a Chase
* Not sure he is fit enough
* Not convinced he is weighted to win anyway
* CICERON – I thought he had a fair chance
* CICERON is potentially a saver
* PATEESE – Comes here after well beaten last time
* He had excuses and should strip fitter
* Not long ago he was favourite for the Greatwood Hurdle
* I think he is worth a saver

S e l e c t i o n

SHOREACRES

I like the chance of SHOREACRES. He has had 2 Hurdle
starts since switching from Chasing. He never really took
to fences but did manage a win from 8 Chase starts. Look
back before he went Chasing. This horse managed a 4th
in the Champion Bumper and a decent 7th in a Supreme
Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham. That shows he has plenty
of class. He then went Chasing with limited success but a
couple of hurdle runs recently shows me he can win this.
He does have fewer hurdle runs than all past winners did
but he is plenty experienced because of his chasing races.
I think his last two runs show him in top form and with
a strong form chance. He likes right handed tracks and
is very fit and it’s hard to see him being far away here.

Selection

SHOREACRES Some 7/1 and 13/2 was available earlier when full members got this.
11/2 now top bookmaker price at Ladbrokes, bet365 and VC
Each way I would suggest

Or alternately if you like bet it on the nose with a saver bet on
PATEESE at 10/1 bet365 betfred Sky Ladbrokes BoyleSports

For more info on my private service see here ==> Betting Advice

 

 

 

 

.

Posted under horse racing tips

Ascot Champions Day Tip

I am no fan of Champions dayat Ascot
as races have been borrowed or stolen from other
tracks, run at different times of the season often
upgraded and that corrupts my angles and makes
it more difficult. I have done what I can however
and have found one for the free blog that looks a
touch over priced.

 

A s c o t   1.50

9/4 Opinion Poll, 5/2 Fame And Glory, 7/2 Times Up
16/1 Motrice, 20/1 Colour Vision, 25/1 Chiberta King
25/1 Darley Sun, 25/1 Nehaam, 33/1 Eternal Heart
40/1 Polly4s Mark.

This 2m Group 3 race is actually the Jockey Club Cup
which is always run at Newmarket. It has been stolen
by Ascot to start their Champions Day card. Whether
any trends hold up because of this I dont know. There
are only mixed angles here anyway. This race has been
dominated by horses coming from the Doncaster Cup
last time out. An incredible 11 of the last 20 winners
of this race came from that race. Any horse that ran
elsewhere last time comes out badly because this trial
race has dominated the race. Today OPINION POLL
and MOTRICE come from this trial. Against these 2
are the fact no 5 year olds like OPINION POLL won
from that race and no filly like MOTRICE did either
so its complicated. FAME AND GLORY comes here
from a 14f race and horses doing that have not done
that well. TIMES UP has to be considered but he has
never won a Group race before the both his main two
rivals have won Group 1-2 races between them. I feel
I should stay with the Doncaster Cup horses despite a
few reservations given above. Because of that and the
race moving to Ascot I see a shortlist of two horses.

OPINION POLL- MOTRICE

I wouldn’t rule MOTRICE out. She started favourite
for this race last year but was only 3yo filly and she
did well to finish second. This year she is fresher and
older and comes from the best trial race. She has not
got much to find with OPINION POLL who was just
1.5 lengths ahead of her last time. That day I had her
as a negative for various reasons. She cant be that far
behind OPINION POLL and given that she is 14/1 I
have to see her as value having started 7/4 in this last
year. I see OPINION POLL as a good saver. Maybe a
good place only bet as well as he should be right there
and easily makes the shortlist. Given the prices I feel
we should try and attack the better priced option here.

Selection – MOTRICE 14/1 +  Each Way

14/1 at 1/4 odds available at bet365 William Hill & PaddyPower

Nb beware a few other miserly bookmakers  only offer 1/5 th odds

Guy

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

 

 

 

.

Posted under horse racing tips

Racing Tip For Chester

Thanks for the positive feedback on last weekends 18/1 winner of the St Wilfred.  Nice to see a few of you re investing winnings in a full membership.

Another longish shot today for you.

CHESTER 2.20

Totepool Handicap (Div I) (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85)  6f18y

9/2 Tyfos, 11/2 Bahamian Lad, 11/2 Lucky Dan, 8/1 Luscivious 8/1 Roker Park, 8/1 Victorian Bounty, 12/1 Falasteen 12/1 Ursula, 14/1 Indian Trail, 14/1 Kingswinford
16/1 Conry, 20/1 Frognal, 20/1 Great Charm, 20/1 Methaaly.

This is a 6f Handicap for 0-85 rated horses. You want to avoid the high draws as you will know. The higher you go the safer it will be.  I would avoid horses drawn 11 and higher. METHAALY GREAT CHARM – INDIAN TRAIL and FALASTEEN have to go. I don’t like CONRY with 1 run this season. If you look at all exposed 4 year olds that come from 5f races the only winners in these races ran within 2 weeks. Those that did not were 0-33 and thats why I’d oppose LUCKY DAN. Exposed 4 year olds coming from 5f races struggled anyway and the only ones not only had a
recent race they all finished 1st or 2nd last time. Those beaten a length or more were 1-92 telling me FROGNAL is beatable and I am against him. LUSCIVIOUS won a 5f race last time. I was not convinced with him. Certainly no horse won again at 6f without a run within 2 weeks and I felt he lacked the right profile. If you look at Exposed Males that come from 6f handicaps and have a break of over a Month they struggled. Those with under 9 races
that season were 1-106. VICTORIAN BOUNTY fails that and
none were as lightly raced as he is this year. BAHAMIAN LAD won a 6f handicap last time. There were 6 exposed 5 year olds that did that but the ones that failed to run within 2 weeks were  0-13 and the evidence is that he’d be better with a recent run.

TYFOS – Scrapes on shortlist – worried about handicap mark.
ROKER PARK – Well treated but unsafe – Needs more runs

SELECTION – URSULA 14/1

Nb best price at free blog posting time now 12/1 at various bookmakers inc Coral vc s james bet365

She may be a Filly with an absence but she is unexposed and I’ve found 2 similar winners like her. She could be one of those that  either flops or wins. Statistically she is fine. I’d have liked a little better draw but its not impossible to win from there and she will love the ground and has hit form now and could impove again. I would consider a small bet at a big price and have a saver as well perhaps on Roker Park from a better draw.

Posted under horse racing tips