Today its Kauto Star v Denman. In all likelyhood
Kauto Star will probably win the race but I would
argue that the statistical arguments suggest that
a better bet is Imperial Commander and Cooldine.
You oppose Kauto Star at your peril but although
it’s not a race I would want an account bet in and
will enjoy the race without being heavily involved
it wouldnt surprise me if Imperial Commander won
and I am going to have an interest bet on him.

It is the Grand Annual that interests me most and
it’s this race I’ve earmarked for our final bet of the
meeting. TARTAK does have statistical problems.
He is not a horse that flies through my angles but
that does not worry me. Nothing else does anyway.
His chance will be determined by whether he will be
as effective at this 2m trip and I think he will. This
is wide open. It is not a vintage renewal. There are
no obvious plot horses this year. The weight stat
in the race has never been more vulnerable. I see
him as a controversial choice. You will struggle to
find anyone tip him today and he is the forgotten
horse of the race. I do think he is worth betting.

CHELTENHAM 5.15

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
Challenge Cup (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1)
(5yo+)2m110y

8/1 You´re The Top, 9/1 Free World, 10/1 French Opera
10/1 Oiseau De Nuit, 10/1 Tataniano 14/1 Beggars Cap
16/1 Consigliere, 16/1 Cornas, 16/1 Fighting Chance 16/1
Safari Journey, 16/1 Tartak, 20/1 Pepsyrock, Nomecheki
33/1 Lennon, 33/1 Lord Henry, 33/1 Moon Over Miami
33/1 Russian Flag , Calatagan, 40/1 Nikola, Pigeon Island
40/1 Tramantano.

* The Grand Annual is a 2m Handicap Chase
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992

* TRAMANTANO’s chance may have gone now
* I backed him e/w at 40/1 in last years race
* He placed Gallantly but never looked like winning
* He goes well fresh but I dont want a 11yo
* Not absent as long as him and he is rejected
* CALATAGAN is too old for me
* Especially coming down 5f in distance
* PIGEON ISLAND doesnt look good enough
* NIKOLA is exposed with just 2 runs this year
* No exposed horse did that and his absence hurts him
* LORD HENRY also has two runs this season
* Not enough for an exposed 11 year old
* Exposed horses dont score well
* I wouldnt bet one without serious backclass
* RUSSIAN FLAG doesnt have that
* Thats not a good sign statistically
* MOON OVER MIAMI is too exposed over fences
* He didnt achieve enough in recent races
* LENNON looks vulnerable to me
* Especially as an exposed 10yo with 2 runs this year

* SAFARI JOURNEY has been absent 96 days
* No English horse had an absence of more than 7 weeks
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* There were 5 winners aged 6 in these races
* None won when absent over a month
* SAFARI JOURNEY shouldnt be the first
* Horses absent 7 + weeks struggled in this race
* Those aged 6-7-8 were 0-50
* SAFARI JOURNEY fails that and has to go

* PEPSYROCK fails a lot of statistics
* He looks overexposed in Chases with 17 runs
* The last 11 winners had no more than 12 runs
* I think he is short of runs this season
* He didnt run well enough last time either
* Overall I thought he had a poor profile

* NOMECHEKI has a lot to do down from 2m 5f
* Especially with just 3 Chase runs
* Thats very inexperienced and a worry
* Having no Graded form doesnt help
* I am comfortable about opposing him

* FREE WORLD is a 6 year old
* There were 2 winners aged 6
* They both had 4 + runs this year and he has 3
* They both ran within a month
* He hasnt run in 44 days
* Not brilliant trends but he does fail both
* He would have been better with 1 more run recently
* However there are 6yo stats in all chases here
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* There were 5 winners aged 6 in these races
* None had under 4 runs that season
* None won when absent over a month
* None had the weight he does either
* FREE WORLD has 11st 11lbs and thats a big weight
* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less.
* In the last 9 years only 1 horse placed with 11st 3lbs or more
* You have to ask yourself about 6 year olds
* As none have won with his absence or with 1-2-3 runs
* Thats in any Festival Handicap Chase
* Is it likely  FREE WORLD will be the first with 11st 11lbs

* TATANIANO is also a 6 year old
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* There were 5 winners aged 6 in these races
* None had under 4 runs that season
* TATANIANO only has 3 runs
* None won when absent over a month
* TATANIANO has been absent 49 days
* That makes him weak statistically for me
* He also has 11st 2lbs and weight is an issue here
* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less.
* TATANIANO also has just 3 Chase runs
* The last few winners had 6 13 11 5 7 10 4 11 3 6 5 39 26
* Considering he is down from 19f it could be a problem
* There are too many problems with his profile
* TATANIANO wouldnt be my choice

* YOU´RE THE TOP is a 6 year old
* He comes from a Novice Chase
* Horses aged 6 from Novice Chases were 1-15
* Last years winner (Oh Crick) did it
* That said last years winner had 6 Chase runs
* YOU´RE THE TOP only has 3
* He also had 1 run extra this season
* He also had form in Listed Class before
* YOU´RE THE TOP hasnt had that backclass
* He also had 11lbs less weight
* I think YOU´RE THE TOP has a tough task here
* He has no form in Listed or Graded Class
* Every past winner had that
* He only has 3 Chase starts as well
* Only 1 of the last 10 winners had 3 Chase starts
* That winner had Grade 1 form over hurdles
* I dont see a great profile there

* FRENCH OPERA has 11st 12lbs to carry
* In the last 9 years only 1 horse placed with 11st 3lbs or more
* He was a well beaten 4th place
* That weight wont be easy to overcome
* Not with a 97 day absence as well
* English horses in this race absent 7 weeks are 0-58
* He is ridden by an Apprentice as well
* Apprentice riders are 0-32 in this race
* FRENCH OPERA has only 3 runs this year
* I looked at every handicap chase run at the festival
* I looked at horses with 1-2-3 runs that season
* I looked at those absent 7 weeks or more
* None carried the weight he does and that worries me
* I couldnt bet him with that weight and absence

* CORNAS comes from a Grade 1 Chase
* Horses doing that score badly in all handicap chase’s
* He has a troublesome weight with 11st 8lbs
* In the last 9 years only 1 horse placed with 11st 3lbs or more
* CORNAS also has to overcome a 55 day absence
* No English horse managed that in this race
* I think his weight and absence will beat him
* He certainly isnt typical of what’s been winning this
* For whatever reason horses from Grade 1 chases struggle

* OISEAU DE NUIT is exposed with 23 career starts
* Yet he has never run in Listed or Graded horse before
* That worries me a lot
* The last 16 winners all ran in Listed or Graded class
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* Only 2 winners were exposed with no Graded class
* Neither were like OISEAU DE NUIT
* He looks far too exposed in Handicap Chases
* He has more weight than many past winners
* I wasnt convinced he was the right type

* BEGGARS CAP doesnt really impress me
* He is a little exposed having his 12th handicap start
* He is a little exposed over fences with 15 runs
* The last 11 winners had no more than 12 runs in Chases.
* Overall I dont have huge problems with him
* His last run beaten miles doesnt help his profile
* 35 of the last 39 winners placed in their previous chase
* He doesnt and I see him as a bit on the unsafe side

P O S S I B L E S

* CONSIGLIERE comes from a hurdle race
* I dont have a big problem with that
* I think he is a bit exposed in handicap chases
* I think he could do with a few lbs less weight
* Neither problem would be a dealbreaker though
* He has no form higher than in a class 2 race though
* The last 16 winners all ran in better grade
* That makes him look weaker statistically
* I dont like his mark of 145 much
* There could also be an issue with the big field
* Overall I would make him a “Possible”
* Thats being Generous though based on his profile

* FIGHTING CHANCE has never in in Class 2 or higher
* Every past winner had ran in 2 Grades higher
* That has to be a big worry for a 10 year old
* We have had 3 winners aged 10 like him
* None of these came from a 2m chase
* They all had form in Graded races
* I wouldnt rule him out despite that
* He isnt exposed at all and is on a roll
* He has won his last 3 Handicap Chases
* Up in class and up in weight wont be easy at all
* He has a low weight though and he could improve
* FIGHTING CHANCE would be a “Possible” for me

SELECTION

TARTAK 16/1 bet365 VC will hill

( if you are betting ew bet365 offer 5 places )

* TARTAK has had 12 Chase starts
* It’s a little more than ideal but workable
* He has 11st 6lbs and thats a tough weight in this
* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less.
* He does have Grade 1 form though
* I quite liked the rest of his profile
* Much will depend on whether he is a 2 miler
* Since the 2009 Arkle has has ran at 2m 4f and more
* This may well be his best distance

TARTAK started 10/1 in last years Arkle. He ran very
well after being hampered in a rough race and jumped
the last only 2 lengths down against Grade 1 horses.
He then went and won at Aintree over 2m 4f and that
may have formed an imprint with some that TARTAK
needs further than 2 Miles. That could be a mistake.

* His form suggests he likes Flat Tracks
* I disagree with that myself
* How can you Pigeon hole a horse after a few runs
* I watched last years Arkle and he ran well
* That tells me he will have no problem here
* His other 2 races here were when he didnt stay
* Tom George is on record saying this
* I think he has run very well here before

This year he has run 5 times. I think you can excuse his
seasonal debut when he didnt jump well and was well
beaten. That was a Grade 2 handicap and he was only a
novice but it says a lot that he was made favourite. He
was then well beaten in the Paddy Power Gold Cup but
he was statistically dead in the water that day anyway
and if you watch the video he ran better than it looked
and was only beaten half a mile out when it looked like
he did not stay. TARTAK then placed at Huntingdon in
the Peterborough Chase. Nothing wrong with that run.
Look who was behind him. Albertas Run and Tidal Bay.
He may well have won that without slipping up.

His 4th race was in Kauto Star’s King George over 3m
and there is no surprise that he didnt stay 3 Miles. Its
interesting he was no bigger price that day than many
Grade 1 horses and I watched that and felt he ran with
plenty of credit but clearly didnt get home.

Last time out he dropped down to todays trip of 2 miles.
It was asking a lot for him to come down from 3m to 2m.
He didnt run badly in 5th place against a few runners in
this race. That race doesnt put me off. He needed a run
and had a harder task than it looked that day. After the
race Tom George hinted the horse wasnt well ridden and
strongly hinted that 2 miles was probably the right trip.

TARTAK now gets the chance to prove that. He has to
carry more weight than most previous winners and that
is a worry but I will forgive him that. He has Grade 1 form
and run in some serious races and its a matter of time to
wait before we get a winner again with 11st or more. He
doesnt pass all my angles in the race and there are some
question marks for him. I just think he is worth the risk.
He has some serious form behind him. I am taking the
view that this 2m suits him much better.  He will race in
the first half dozen today and I think he has the ability
to win this race.  Its not a vintage race. There has been
no Plot horses or throw in lightweights. Every horse is
9/1 and more. There is nothing special in this race and
With a stable in hot form I see him as very interesting.

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www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Posted under Major Horse Races

No joy with the free blog bets yesterday.
A touch unfortunate with the race we chose to post up.
It was one of multiple races covered for full members and it
was the other races where the winning selections arose.

Guy went through the Cheltenham card yesterday and highlighted the following selections

Dunguib win bet 10/11 - Lost
Menorah to beat Blackstairmountain in Match Bet 10/11 - Won
Oscar WhiSky Each Way 9/2 without the favourite  - Won

CHELTENHAM  2.05
Sizing Europe  Each Way 5/1   Won

CHELTENHAM  2.40

Split Stake Bet

Nenuphar Collonges 22/1 Lost
Kicks For Free 25/1 Lost

CHELTENHAM 3.20

Binocular 8/1 Win Bet  - Won
Solwhit 7/1  Saver Bet - Lost

CHELTENHAM 4.00

Freneys Well 33/1 Each Way
Another Jewel to beat Monkerhostin in match bet  10/11 Won

CHELTENHAM 4.40

Voler La Vedette Win Bet 2/1  Lost
No One Tells Me Place Bet 5/2  Lost

He has done a similar through the card  today for full members
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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
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As per yesterday just one race on the free blog.

CHELTENHAM WEDNESDAY 2.05

Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle
(Registered As Baring Bingham Novices´ Hurdle)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m5f

7/2 Quel Esprit, 7/2 Rite Of Passage, 11/2 Finian´s Rainbow
6/1 Peddlers Cross, 10/1 Summit Meeting, 11/1 Reve De Sivola 1
6/1 Manyriverstocross, 20/1 Ghizao, 25/1 The Knoxs
33/1 Gus Macrae, 33/1 Some Present, 50/1 Hollo Ladies
66/1 Baily Rock, 100/1 Sleepy Hollow, 100/1 The Giant Bolster
200/1 Consulate, 200/1 Quartano.

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992

I think you can rule out half the field. Pointless doing
too much analysis on no hopers. Its not a race that is
likely to go to a complete outsider and never has done.
I think THE KNOXS is underraced for a 7yo and lacks
backclass. He looks to come up short.  I dont like a 5yo
like SUMMIT MEETING coming from just an ordinary
Novice Hurdle. I think GHIZAO is underraced as well
coming from a 2m race and with just 2 hurdle starts I’d
see him as vulnerable. MANYRIVERSTOCROSS does
not come out well from a 2m handicap and none of the
past winners were like him. Five look worth a mention.

* REVE DE SIVOLA is hard to judge
* His biggest problem is clearly his absence
* No horse won without having run in January -February.
* No Refuge had a similar profile in 2005
* He didnt have as long a break as this horse
* He was also much lighter raced
* Wouldnt rule him out
* There are better profiles for me

* PEDDLERS CROSS is 5 and comes from a 2m race
* I dont like that profile at all
* Since 1993 just 1 winner was 5 coming from 2m 4f or less
* The record was 1 winner from 33 that tried
* That winner was the mightly Istabraq in 1997
* I think we can safely say he is an exception to the rule
* Istabraq prepped over 18f before winning this
* No English horse aged 5 came 1st or 2nd in this from a 2m race
* He wouldnt be my choice to win this race

* RITE OF PASSAGE has looks top class
* He does have a few little issues to address
* Its unclear whether Cheltenham is his best track
* 3rd in the Bumper last year he was beaten a fair way
* He is a Flat Bred horse which is a concern
* This race usually falls to a National Hunt bred horse
* He has only ran twice over hurdles before
* 20 of the last 24 winners all had more than 2 hurdle runs

* QUEL ESPRIT ran in the Cheltenham bumper last year
* He was just behind Rites of Passage in 4th
* He has 3 hurdle runs and that makes more suitable
* His defeat last time did blot his copybook
* 3 of the last 7 winners were beaten though last time
* Statistically I think he is just better than Rites of Passage

* FINIAN´S RAINBOW is a 7 year old
* We know Horses aged 5 and 6 dominate
* They have won 33 of the last 38 renewals
* The last 10 winners and runner ups were aged 5 or 6
* I am not sure thats a statistic thats relevant
* FINIAN´S RAINBOW didnt start racing until he was 6
* The only previous 7yo winner started his career late
* As he is lightly raced I dont see his age as a big issue
* I looked at 7 year olds in this race since 1993
* I Looked at those starting under 20/1
* I looked at those with Grade 1 form
* I looked at those winning last time out
* I looked at those not coming from 16f races
* There were only 2 horses aged 7 with that profile
* They finished 1st (1998) and 3rd (2006)
* That tells me there is nothing wrong with his profile

SELECTION

Split Stake Bet

FINIAN’S RAINBOW 11/2

SOME PRESENT 33/1  Each Way

Interesting race. I would only want Rites of Passage
if he was strong statistically but he isnt. Quel Esprit
is slightly better but the ground could be the problem
with him and it does put me off a bit. I know horses in
this race aged 7 havent done well but I hope I have
shown that only a certain type of 7yo struggle and
horses like FINIAN’S RAINBOW are fine. I would be
having half my stake on him.

The other half of the stake is far more specualtive but
at 33/1 SOME PRESENT could be a bit overpriced. He
isnt brilliant statistically but he is 33/1 and he isnt dead my any means.
My arguments are these

* There are question marks about shorter priced horses
* He ran in the 2009 Bumper here and came second
* He was only beaten by Dunguib
* He beat Rites of Passage and Quel Esprit that day
* Since then he has a W 2 2 2 6 3 record
* Twice he has been beaten by Dunguib again
* He hasnt been well placed in his races
* He was the victim of many slow pace races
* He comes from a Grade 1 race thats a good trial
* Although beaten 13 lengths there were excuses
* He was hardly likely to beat Dunguib
* The ground was heavy that day which hurt him
* His sire has only had 2 fancied runners in this race
* They came 2nd and 4th
* He should be much better suited to faster ground
* He will appreciate the trip and the stronger pace
* There is a bit of a leap of faith but he could go well
* SOME PRESENT could run much better than expected

Posted under horse racing tips

Right now I have to admit I am more focussed on preparation next week’s Cheltenham Festival than today’s racing.
I have already researched all my stats for the Festival.
( up on full member private message board now )
As it stands today I have identified six horses over the Festival that have the potential to be full Account bets.
Going, final runners, a bit more fine tuned research  and odds available will dictate if I account Bet them or not on race day.

The cheap first month deal for Cheltenham is still on.
Time is ticking on it however.

Here is the cheap price link:

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
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Saturday Racing

I don’t see a bet strong enough to stake today as a full Account Bet.
I’ve 3 horses at the top of the full member message that look interesting.

One of them I will post up here on the free blog.

MICKY’S KNOCK OFF feels stronger but only because
in his race the opposition are easier to understand. The
other two runners have more unknown opposition but
it wouldn’t surprise me if they turned out to be stronger
options. Considering the frame of the races the bet that
stands out may well be 3 each way doubles on these 3.

Personally I’m having a small win bet on Micky’s Knock Off

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.00

3/1 Il Forno, 4/1 Blue Neptune, 4/1 Magenta Strait
6/1 Bird Call, 6/1 Clear Ice, 6/1 Micky´s Knock Off
16/1 Crystal Glass, 50/1 Shawkantango.

The 4pm is a 3yo Claimer over 5f and these are rare as
contests. I would rule out everything with under 4 runs
as the 26 similar winners all had 5 or more starts. There
were 5 winners absent over a month. Interesting that 4
of them were fillies and that all 5 of them had between
9 and 12 career starts and came from handicaps. I had
3 on my shortlist. Horses like Blue Neptune that came
from 5f handicaps tended to run much better last time.
I respect Il Forno but horses from 6f claimers were 0-12
so I cant pretend I wouldn’t have preferred a better stat.
MICKY’S KNOCK OFF is a positive and my selection.
He has the required experience and a recent run which
many lack. He will be tough to kick out of the three. It
may be that around 7/2 he should be a win bet. He has
speed to burn and would have won at the 5f marker in
his last race. I think he will win.

SELECTION - MICKY’S KNOCK OFF

7/2 at Ladbrokes, PaddyPower , CanBet , bet365

Best wishes
Guy

Posted under horse racing tips

No Account Bet

I’m not having an account bet today as I do
not like anything strongly enough. Every Bet
will now be an account bet but that does not
mean we should have bets when they’re not
strong enough and I’ve been here before on
this particular Saturday. The card at Lingfield
doesnt offer much so the only option is soft
and sloppy ground and the National Hunt.

It will take a day or two to settle down into a
rhythm and get the timing right but whilst its
a positive long term change we shouldnt be
falling over ourselves to have bets when the
racing doesnt throw us much.

I have looked at quite a few races for Full Members.
Here is one of them for the free blog.

HAYDOCK 1.45

4/1 Garleton, Huka Lodge , 7/1 Sherwoods Folly, Supreme Keano
8/1 Never So Blue 10/1 Jaunty Journey, Malko De Beaumont 14/1
Boris The Blade 14/1 Himalayan Trail.

This is a 3m 4f Handicap Chase for horses rated 0-129.
There have been 68 similar races at this time of year.
None of the 68 winners were 13 years old or more like HUKA LODGE.
I dont fancy him for the following reasons.

* Since 1994 there has been 605 similar 3m 4f handicaps
* Thats any time of year and between 3m 3f and 3m 5f
* Horses aged 13 or more won 10 of the 605 races
* Only 1 horse that age defied a months absence

HUKA LODGE is vulnerable as a 13yo. No horse as old as
HIMALAYAN TRAIL defied such an absence. I dont like
MALKO DE BEAUMONT’s chance. BORIS THE BLADE
doesnt look good enough. I think the weight could beat
JAUNTY JOURNEY an inexperience horse who hasnt yet
completed in a handicap. SHERWOODS FOLLY has a
chance but a tough weight and I didnt think he would win.

GARLETON - Strong Profile and likely winner
SUPREME KEANO - Great chance if he can jump well
NEVER SO BLUE - Good chance - Local owners - Has to stay

SELECTION - GARLETON  9/2 Sky
SAVER - NEVER SO BLUE 17/2 Sky & VC

Posted under horse racing tips

Three Account Bets so far this season.

WON 3-1

SECOND 6-1

WON 2-1

The latest Account Bet winning Saturday very easily.
LINGFIELD 12.00

11/4 River Thames, 9/2 Muktasb, 7/1 Afton View, Welcome Approach, 10/1 Our Fugitive, Rightcar Lewis, 12/1 Shot To Fame, 14/1 Bronte´s Hope, Now You See Me, 20/1 Gambling Jack, Loyal Royal, 25/1 Blue Zenith.

SELECTION - RIVER THAMES

In this 6f handicap I dont see RIVER THAMES being beaten. I think he has worked himself into a race where he is simply much better class than the horses that occupy this sort of race. I would have to rule out several. RIGHTCARD LEWIS is out as a filly from 5f. BLUE ZENITH is out from a seller. Several had questionable fitness like NOW YOU SEE ME, GAMBLING JACK and LOYAL ROYAL. I want to oppose the Marcus Tregonnning horse BRONTE’S HOPE an inexperienced filly down in trip. I dont think SHOT TO FAME will show his best form here over 6f and feel he will be caught out. WELCOME APROACH isnt a horse that likes the hustle and bustle and here drawn in the middle I dont see him running his best over this diatance. If I had done a shortlist it may have read like Muktasb - River Thames -Afton View. However I cant do one as I think it should have just 1 horse on it. RIVER THAMES looks a really good bet to me. Hurt badly by the draw at Doncaster last time over 7f he ran far better than it looks. He has back class that most of these would die for. He only has to give MUKTASB a pound in weight yet RIVER THAMES comes from two 0-84 class races and MUKTASB comes here beaten in 0-58 races. MUKTASB has no back class at all. The only time he has ran in class 4 handicaps before he was an outsider and well beaten. By contrast RIVER THAMES has won two and ran in far better grade. In his 34 race career RIVER THAMES has never been in class 6 before. Yes he is quirky but he is dropping into a 0-60 race and he has to be better class than that.

Posted under Main Content