C h e l t e n h a m   2.05

2/1 Aerial, 9/2 The Giant Bolster, 13/2 Poquelin
8/1 Tamarinbleu, 9/1 Araldur, 9/1 Chance Du Roy
9/1 Woolcombe Folly, 14/1 Hell4s Bay
16/1 Tartak, 25/1 Billie Magern.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m 5f
* There are only 12 similar races at this time of year.
* Look at the 12 Cheltenham races
* Horses aged 6 and 7 have a 0-37 record
* That seems quite a revealing statistic in these races
* I’d oppose horses aged 6 or 7 with that record
* Especially as the first two favourites fail this.
* AERIAL – I am opposing him as a 6yo
* THE GIANT BOLSTER – Avoid him as a 7yo
* BILLIE MAGERN – doesnt offer me enough
* HELL4S BAY – Not in good enough form
* TARTAK – Too much of a fitness doubt for me
* WOOLCOMBE FOLLY – Vulnerable from 2m
* TAMARINBLEU – Asking lots for a 12yo

Shortlist

* POQUELIN – The class horse but a lot to do
* CHANCE DU ROY – Big chance
* ARALDUR – No problems with his profile

S e l e c t i o n

CHANCE DU ROY  10/1 Each Way Ladbrokes bet365

Last time out CHANCE DU ROY was beaten 16 lengths
by Quincy Des Pictons who was rated 119. There was no
shame in that. It was heavy ground and Welsh National
day and CHANCE DU ROY had topweight and gave him
33lbs weight. Thats a massive ammount and when you
consider than Quincy Des Pictons is now rated 137 then
I think he had an impossible task that day. Its interesting
the 3rd horse (Consigliere) came out and won 20 lengths
next time out. CHANCE DU ROY is the one getting the
weight today and I like his chance.

Posted under horse racing tips

SERVICE NEWS

There are 69 days to the Cheltenham Festival. In
aviation terms the National Hunt flight takes off
in November with the Destination Cheltenham in
March. We have been through the turbulance of
weeks 1 and 2 in January where the racing is poor
and one of the bumpiest parts of the trip. Now as
we come to weeks 3 and 4 in January the flight is
now starting a gradual descent down to destination.
During that descent passangers will be able to see
some great landmarks like the Tote Gold Trophy
now known sadly as the Betfair hurdle. There is
the Skybet Chase – The victor chandler at Ascot
and many other statistically strong races. We are
entering Ante Post Season now which is always a
lot more interesting than the drudgery you get on
the Sand and the lower grade national hunt cards.
I plan to do full statistical previews for all the big
trials and I always get excited at this time of year.

SATURDAY’S RACING

The horse I am most excited about today
and the strongest bet advised today to Full Members,
runs in a very early race today. I will leave metioning it here
on the free betting blog.

For the free tip today we are off to Warwick for one of the later races.

W a r w i c k   3.40

5/1 Sona Sasta, 6/1 Neptune Equester, 7/1 Blazing Bailey
7/1 Strongbows Legend, 8/1 Major Malarkey, 10/1 Faasel
10/1 Hey Big Spender, Bench Warrent 14/1 Fredo
14/1 Morning Moment,16/1 On Borrowed Wings
20/1 Hello Bud 20/1 Miko De Beauchene.

* The Classic Chase is a high class 3m 5f Handicap Chase
* There are 20 similar races at this time of year.
* Not a great stats race as it has changed over the years
* There is a small sample size of these races as well
* MORNING MOMENT – Not for me 8lbs out of the weights
* All recent winners had more backclass than him
* His last run was poor and he has a weak profile
* Only 2 winners overcame heavy defeats to win similar races
* They all had Backclass in Graded races and he doesnt
* I’d also argue he may not stay this far
* MIKO DE BEAUCHENE looks wrong aged 12
* He has not ran a good race in over 2 years
* He is out of the handicap and offers nothing
* FAASEL is 11 and has a miserable profile
* I dont want to bet an exposed 11yo first time out
* I looked at every race in January
* Thats every distance , every class and any kind of race
* I looked at exposed horses aged 11 or more first time
* None managed to win beyond 3 Miles
* None managed to win beyond a Class 4 race
* The only Handicap Chase winner was 2m 5f in Class 4
* FAASEL has a very hard task in my view
* He has never won beyond 2m 5f before either
* HEY BIG SPENDER comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* There isnt enough recovery time
* That hurts his profile and so does his weight
* Horses with 11st 8lbs in this race were 0-17
* HEY BIG SPENDER also has to prove he stays this far
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 3f yet
* BENCH WARRENT comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* He may struggle to get over a hard race at Chepstow
* Statistically I can live with him
* I cant forgive him a hard 4th in the Welsh National
* Not with a very inexperienced jockey
* ON BORROWED WINGS comes from 22f
* No winners did that in any similar race in January
* His last Chase was only in a Novice Handicap
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* FREDO is exposed and doesnt do it for me
* No exposed horse won when  aged 8
* None won when coming from 3m or shorter either
* FREDO also has to show he stays
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* HELLO BUD is too old aged 14
* I looked at every winner aged 13 or more over 3m 2f +
* Thats in any race and at any time of year
* There was only 1 winner beyond a Class 3 race
* That was Spot The Difference in a Cross Country Chase
* Out of form aged 14 he is not worth betting
* BLAZING BAILEY comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* There isnt enough recovery time
* I can accept the argument he is a class horse
* And that he will like the ground and the drop in class
* You can also argue he didnt have too hard a race at Chepstow
* Statistically though he is not strong
* I looked at all exposed horses running within a month
* They had a bad record and none ran as badly as him last time

S h o r t l i s t

* MAJOR MALARKEY has 1 run this season
* Thats easily my biggest problem with him
* Past winners had  1 2 3 2 6 2 4 runs that season
* Last years winner was a 9yo with 1 run this year
* That really does help his profile
* Last years winner also had 9 Chase starts like him
* Last years winner helpsm to gets him shortlisted
* Without that evidence I’d have opposed him
* Still bothers me he’s the only horse with 1 run

* STRONGBOWS LEGEND is hard to read aged 7
* All 7 year old winners were placed last time
* STRONGBOWS LEGEND Fell which isnt a good preparation
* Ignore that and he won 25 lengths before that
* This is said to be a very well handicapped horse
* His lack of backclass bothers me a bit
* STRONGBOWS LEGEND has no form beyond Class 3 grade
* The last 7 winners all had Graded form
* Almost every similar winner had more backclass too
* He is 5lbs out of the handicap as well
* I like him a lot but not sure if he has the class

* SONA SASTA has 5 Chase starts
* We have had recent winners with 4 and 6 chase starts
* I’d have liked a slighly better last run
* I can overlook that as he hasn’t done much wrong
* If the grounds right he must be a player
* He has to prove he stays this far though
* Thats not certain on his breeding

* NEPTUNE EQUESTER – No strong problems with him
* He did the right thing avoiding the Welsh National
* I dont see why he shouldnt go well

Selection

NEPTUNE EQUESTER 13/2 Each Way

13/2 available at bet365

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-01-14/warwick/15-40/betting/

 

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

S a t u r d a y   A y r   3.20

By popular demand the race I am looking at here today for
the free blog is the Ayr Gold Cup.

I feel I have something a bit stronger in the 3.55 at Ayr
but that is for full members of my paid service.
Quite rightly they moan if I post too much up here for free.

A few of you have asked about my thoughts on the Ayr Gold Cup
so here they are.

It is a huge runner field and I wont be investing heavily myself but
if you forced a tenner into my hand and told me to bet it this is why I would do.

William Hill Ayr Gold Cup
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 18 renewals of this race since 1993
* There has been 77 Similar handicaps elsewhere

* Horses aged 7 or more struggled
* None were absent as long as TAJNEED
* None were absent as long as EVENS AND ODDS
* REGAL PARADE doesnt come out well aged 7
* Not without a recent run and from Listed Class
* ANCIENT CROSS is an exposed 7yo from 6f
* He has just Class 2 Form similar horses were 1-59
* ANCIENT CROSS has more weight than that winner
* Those like him running within 2 weeks are 0-36
* ANCIENT CROSS isnt as good a fit as I want
* MAYSON shouldnt win this aged 3 with 1 run this year
* Fillies aged 3 need at least 6 runs that season
* DARAJAAT fails that with 4 runs
* MAJESTIC MYLES looks the wrong type of 3yo
* Those down in trip with 9 + runs struggled
* None had anything like his weight and I cant match him
* In 77 races no exposed horse won absent 7 + weeks
* Those that tried had a 0-66 record
* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that and is rejected
* LIGHT FROM MARS fails that and is rejected
* KALDOUN KINGDOM fails that and is rejected
* Exposed horses absent over a Month were 3-175
* None have won this race
* None were aged 4 like PEPPER LANE
* None were fillies like PEPPER LANE
* GROUP THERAPY – Wrong as exposed 6yo from 5f
* ANNE OF KIEV is a mare and fails the same statistic
* BREATHLESS KISS is wrong as an exposed filly from 5f
* I looked at Exposed horses from 7f races
* Those aged 6 or more were just 1-60
* Those without a run in the last week were 0-56
* CASTLES IN THE AIR fails that and has a bad draw
* BRAVE PROSPECTOR fails that from 7f
* HIGH STANDING also looks wrong doing this
* There were 13 winners coming from 7f
* None had just 1-2-3-4 runs that season
* ETON RIFLES fails that
* Those aged 6 or more like him needed 8 + runs that year
* ETON RIFLES falls short for me
* MAC4S POWER is exposed and from a 6f Listed race
* Horses with this profile had a 1-28 record
* That was the 1996 winner of this Royale Figurine
* She was a 4yo filly and had 6 runs this year
* MAC4S POWER is an older 5yo and a Male
* MAC4S POWER – Can’t match him as well as I’d like
* He has a tough handicap mark on ground not ideal
* SON OF THE CAT has the same profile
* He is exposed aged 5 from a Listed race
* SON OF THE CAT has a tough handicap mark
* BELOW ZERO is an exposed 4yo from 7f
* Similar horses had a 1-31 record in 77 races
* That winner had less weight than he does
* Recently punished by the handicapper he is unsafe
* OUR JONATHAN is 4 and comes from a 6f handicap
* He has a Months absence as well
* I found 2 winners that had that profile
* Both winners had 8st 8lbs or less
* OUR JONATHAN has 9st 6lbs
* I see him borderline shortlistable but the weights a worry
* The Handicapper does look in charge
* WAFFLE is an unexposed 5yo from a 6f handicap
* He has a recent race beaten about 6 lengths
* The 2000 winner of this race shared that profile
* That winner did have 20lbs less weight though
* I Dont see WAFFLE as well treated
* Having 1 career win drags his numbers down as well
* Borderline shortlistable he is respected but unsafe

S h o r t l i s t

* CROISULTAN is very hard to read
* Irish horse that comes from a Group race 7 days ago
* He looks short of runs this year for an exposed 5yo
* Coming from Group 3 races is not the norm either
* In His favour is strong recent form
* I would see him more as a Neutral profile
* He is unorthodox and not statistically strong
* I shouldnt impose English stats on Irish horses though
* CROISULTAN is respected but very hard to read

* DUNGANNON is an unexposed 4yo
* He comes from 6f and has Class 2 form
* Similar horses running within a month did win 2 races
* There is a Silver Cup winner like him
* No Gold Cup winner but DUNGANNON is shortlistable

* PASTORAL PLAYER is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* He runs within 2 weeks and has 5-6-7 runs this season
* In 77 races there were 2 horses with that profile
* These finished 1st and 6th
* PASTORAL PLAYER is very shortlistable

* COLONEL MAK is an exposed 4 year old
* He won a 6f Handicap last time over 2 weeks ago
* Similar horses had a 1-4 record
* The winner was the 2005 winner of this race (Presto Shinko)
* COLONEL MAK won the Silver Cup last year as a 3yo
* That shows me he has a good chance in this years race
* COLONEL MAK is shortlisted

Summary

CROISULTAN – Hard to read. Neutral profile
DUNGANNON – Almost right and respected
PASTORAL PLAYER – Like his profile
COLONEL MAK – Decent chance

Final Selection

Split Stake Bet

CROISULTAN  16/1 s james
COLONEL MAK 16/1 s james

Full live market odds at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-09-17/ayr/15-20/betting/

Best Wishes
Guy

Posted under Major Horse Races

I normally push hard on Saturday and do an expansive
message with a large number of previews. I’m taking it
much slower today. I’ve reduced the previews today to
only ten for Full members and I haven’t pushed that hard
on the analysis.

We had a nice winner on the free horse betting blog
last Saturday with an easy win for Baltimore Clipper
advised here at 9/1

I am glad to see a few of you registered here on the blog bothered to
add a few comments of thanks.

Anyhow onto today’s racing tip.

N e w m a r k e t   2.50

5/1 Roger Sez, 11/2 Piranha, 6/1 Mention
7/1 Imelda Mayhem, 7/1 Nearly A Gift, 15/2 Ballyea
8/1 Correct, 9/1 My Lucky Liz, 16/1 Judas Jo
20/1 Redair, 25/1 Princess Banu.

This is a Fillies Nursery over 6f. There are only 3 of these races in July and August all being the renewals of this race so nothing much to help us with here. I will list my trends from these three races. I can tell you now that No horses pass all 6 or my trends so we wont have an ideal type here.

* All 3 winners had 4-5-6 career starts
* All 3 winners ran within 2 weeks
* All 3 winners had form in Class 2 and no higher
* All 3 winners were beaten last time out
* All 3 winners ran within 10 lengths of the winner last time
* None of the 3 winners came from Handicaps

MENTION passes all stats except one and I find it interesting he comes from Newbury and the 5f Super Sprint. Two of the  Three past winners did exactly the same. I think she looks a well treated horse off 80. She will appreciate the 6f. She was drawn in the wrong place at Newbury and was murdered later on in the race when badly hampered and that cost her several places. I think she has an outstanding chance of winning this. My danger would be MY LUCKY LIZ

Selection – MENTION

7/1 at Coral bet365 William Hill

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Close to a big Cigar yesterday for full members.

Beaten by a neck in the second leg almost landing an 87/1 win double.

Seeing how a race was assessed and trying to learn from it can often be beneficial. You can follow Guy’s reasoning  below.

 

CHELTENHAM 2.05

Neptune Investment Management Novices? Hurdle
(Registered As Baring Bingham Novices? Hurdle)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m5f

9/4 So Young, 3/1 Oscars Well, 6/1 First Lieutenant
8/1 Rock On Ruby, 10/1 Minella Class, 10/1 Tornado Bob
14/1 Megastar, 25/1 Aikman, 33/1 Habbie Simpson
50/1 Highland Valley, 100/1 Accordintolawrence
100/1 Ohio Gold.

This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f. Recently
some of the long established biases in this race changed
and several of the strongest angles are now looking out
of date and there has been a sea change. At least we can
argue that this hardly ever goes to a huge price winner.

* Horses aged 5 and 6 dominate this race
* I dont like AIKMAN as a 7 year old
* Not without form in Graded Class before
* MEGASTAR was beaten too far last time
* Horses from similar races to him had a miserable record
* OHIO GOLD is outclassed
* ACCORDINTOLAWRENCE is also outclassed
* HIGHLAND VALLEY looks the wrong type
* You don’t want horses coming from ordinary Novices
* HABBIE SIMPSON showed his limitations last time

POSSIBLES

* SO YOUNG comes with a massive reputation
* It will be interesting to see how good he is
* SO YOUNG has a lot to prove in my view
* He has no form in Graded Class run
* 5 of the last 6 winners came from Graded Class
* 11 of the last 13 winners ran in Grade 1-2 class over hurdles
* 16 of the last 17 winners had Grade 1-2 form before
* SO YOUNG Lacks that and its a problem
* Especially as he comes from a 2m race
* There have been recent winners coming from 2m races
* They all came from Graded races over 2m
* SO YOUNG has only raced twice over hurdles before
* I dont like his profile and felt he wanted Graded backclass

* They are three Grade 1 Novice Hurdles at the festival
* This race – The Supreme Novice – The Albert Bartleyy
* There are 37 renewals of these races in recent years
* I looked at horses that had Never run in Grade 1 or Grade 2
* There was a miserable 4-280 record
* Three of the 4 runners had Under 4 career starts
* Gallileo (1 run) Indefence (3 runs) Shadow Leader (2 runs)
* Horses doing this with 4 or more starts were 1-148
* Last years Supreme winner Menorah did it with 5 runs
* He was the only horse thats done it with 4 + runs
* TORNADO BOB has to try and beat that with 7 runs
* TORNADO BOB has to be a negative
* He has 7 runs yet no Graded form and beaten last time
* SO YOUNG has 3 runs since coming from France
* Thats slightly less of a worry but its still a big issue
* Because of this I would question SO YOUNG

SHORTLIST

OSCARS WELL

I dont have a statistical problem with this horse. Statistically  he appears fine.
My reservations would be the ground as he’s not faced ground as quick as
this and it may trouble him. It’s more than possible his Grade One win last
time may take a  lot out of him.

* MINELLA CLASS can’t be ruled out of this
* He is 6 and comes from a 2m 5f race
* Horses with 4-5-6 runs have a strangely bad record
* MINELLA CLASS casts a seed of doubt because of it

* FIRST LIEUTENANT last ran in December
* All past winners had raced in January or Febuary
* I’d ignore that statistic as he misses it by 3 days only
* He has to come from a  2m race but he looks reasonable
* He looks the right sort to run fresh

* ROCK ON RUBY has a reasonable chance
* I looked at 6 year olds from 2m 5f races
* There were 3 winners and they were different
* They were either very lightly raced
* Or much more experienced
* You have to wonder if his last run was good enough
* I would also have liked more hurdle runs
* I’d see him as no more than a Possible
* I think He will improve on faster ground
* His full sister loved faster ground
* I see him as the second best each way option

SELECTION

My Stats show that SO YOUNG has a strong statistical
problem that no horse at the festival has yet overcome
in any of the Novice Races. My reservation about that
statistic apart from the infectious gossip suggesting he’s
working like a Champion is that there are just 12 horses
in the race. This is the Smallest Field for this race since
the 1980′s and that will help SO YOUNG and undermine
my statistic especially as several of these are outsiders.

CHELTENHAM 2.40

RSA Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

9/4 Time For Rupert, 7/1 Aiteen Thirtythree
7/1 Jessies Dream, 9/1 Wayward Prince , 10/1 Mikael
D´haguenet, 10/1 Wymott, 12/1 Bostons Angel
14/1 Master Of The Hall, 14/1 Quel Esprit
14/1 The Giant Bolster, 20/1 Magnanimity
100/1 Elysian Rock.

* This is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m

TIME FOR RUPERT

Second in last years World Hurdle TIME FOR RUPERT is
a Grade 1 winner in waiting. If he wins this one it will have to be
without my money. I have some problems with him.
The last 10 winners had 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4 chase starts
and he looks inexperienced to me with only 2 races. He is
going to have to try and overcome that with an absence of
95 days. We havent had a winner defy more than 53 days
since 1991 in this race and that could impact on his fencing
considering his inexperienced. On top of that just two races
this year leave him short of runs. He has fewer than any of the
past winners in recent years. Not from a top stable he’s got
flaws in his profile and looks underpriced to me.

* THE GIANT BOLSTER is the only 6yo in the race
* Not the best aged group and from a small stable
* No winners came from Novice Handicaps over 21f or less
* I see that as unsatisfactory and he looks wrong
* I’d want at least 3 or more runs this season
* Only 1 of the last 16 winners had under 3 runs that year
* ELYSIAN ROCK is not up to this class
* MASTER OF THE HALL looks unsafe to me
* I find him a little bit on the inexperienecd side
* Not convinced he will stay or like this course
* His Trainer has questioned his stamina over this far
* He made mistakes on his only run here
* He has too much form on flat tracks for me
* AITEEN THIRTYTHREE only has 2 Chase starts
* He has less experience than any recent winners
* That troubles me and he is not for me
* Not sure how comfortable he will be in this sort of race
* I looked at 7 year olds without Grade 1 form before
* There were 4 winners and they all had 4 + runs that year
* AITEEN THIRTYTHREE fails that with just 3 runs
* QUEL ESPRIT only has 2 Chase starts and fell in one
* He looks short of chase experience

SHORTLIST

* BOSTONS ANGEL looks fine statistically
* Not sure if he will be good enough though
* His 2 Graded Chase wins came out of the blue
* Faster ground could be a problem as well
* MAGNANIMITY comes from the same race
* MAGNANIMITY has no obvious profile issues
* I would worry most about the faster ground
* He looks a horse that may want it softer
* MIKAEL D´HAGUENET has the right number of runs
* He fits my profile like a glove in that regard
* The only angle he fails is he wasnt 1st or 2nd last time
* I don’t mind that as it was in a Grade 1 race and was 3rd
* He has also won at festival before over hurdles
* It is off putting he has not won any of 3 chase starts
* There are doubts about his jumping
* He does tend to jump right handed
* His sire has a far better record with his hurdling runners
* WYMOTT has just had enough experience
* He would appeat to have a reasonably solid chance
* I did look at 7 year olds without Grade 1 form before
* There were 4 winners and they all had 4 + runs that year
* WYMOTT has 3 runs and I’d have liked another
* All 4 winners  also prepped at 3m and he didnt
* One to two minor flaws in his profile for me
* I also dont like the  cheekpieces for a RSA horse
* WAYWARD PRINCE is a little on the inexperienced side
* He has a bare minimum of runs but I’d like a few more
* I looked at all similar 7yo’s with 1-2-3 runs that year
* There were 2 winners in recent years
* Those winning Novice Chases last time were 0-15
* Not a bad overall profile but not a very close match

SELECTION

* JESSIES DREAM has 5 Chase starts
* That will give him an edge over several of these
* The only statistic he fails is a run 66 days ago
* Every Past winner since 1991 ran within 52 days
* I think that has to be forgiveable
* You can argue just 1 of the last 12 winners were 8yo’s
* Several won before that though and I dont see an issue
* He will appreciate the better ground as well
* There is the fact he has no Cheltenham form
* That is a worry but he also has advantages
* I love the fact he has 5 runs over fences
* His market dangers all conceded him that experience
* Time For Rupert and Ainteen Thirty Three have just 2 runs
* Wymott -Wayward Prince – Mikael Dhaguenet  just 3 runs
* JESSIES DREAM could be best placed to handle this race

CHELTENHAM 2.05  – FIRST LIEUTENANT 7/1

CHELTENHAM 2.40  – JESSIES DREAM 8/1

Each Way Double

Posted under Major Horse Races