No Account Bet

I’m not having an account bet today as I do
not like anything strongly enough. Every Bet
will now be an account bet but that does not
mean we should have bets when they’re not
strong enough and I’ve been here before on
this particular Saturday. The card at Lingfield
doesnt offer much so the only option is soft
and sloppy ground and the National Hunt.

It will take a day or two to settle down into a
rhythm and get the timing right but whilst its
a positive long term change we shouldnt be
falling over ourselves to have bets when the
racing doesnt throw us much.

I have looked at quite a few races for Full Members.
Here is one of them for the free blog.

HAYDOCK 1.45

4/1 Garleton, Huka Lodge , 7/1 Sherwoods Folly, Supreme Keano
8/1 Never So Blue 10/1 Jaunty Journey, Malko De Beaumont 14/1
Boris The Blade 14/1 Himalayan Trail.

This is a 3m 4f Handicap Chase for horses rated 0-129.
There have been 68 similar races at this time of year.
None of the 68 winners were 13 years old or more like HUKA LODGE.
I dont fancy him for the following reasons.

* Since 1994 there has been 605 similar 3m 4f handicaps
* Thats any time of year and between 3m 3f and 3m 5f
* Horses aged 13 or more won 10 of the 605 races
* Only 1 horse that age defied a months absence

HUKA LODGE is vulnerable as a 13yo. No horse as old as
HIMALAYAN TRAIL defied such an absence. I dont like
MALKO DE BEAUMONT’s chance. BORIS THE BLADE
doesnt look good enough. I think the weight could beat
JAUNTY JOURNEY an inexperience horse who hasnt yet
completed in a handicap. SHERWOODS FOLLY has a
chance but a tough weight and I didnt think he would win.

GARLETON - Strong Profile and likely winner
SUPREME KEANO - Great chance if he can jump well
NEVER SO BLUE - Good chance - Local owners - Has to stay

SELECTION - GARLETON  9/2 Sky
SAVER - NEVER SO BLUE 17/2 Sky & VC

Posted under horse racing tips

Three Account Bets so far this season.

WON 3-1

SECOND 6-1

WON 2-1

The latest Account Bet winning Saturday very easily.
LINGFIELD 12.00

11/4 River Thames, 9/2 Muktasb, 7/1 Afton View, Welcome Approach, 10/1 Our Fugitive, Rightcar Lewis, 12/1 Shot To Fame, 14/1 Bronte´s Hope, Now You See Me, 20/1 Gambling Jack, Loyal Royal, 25/1 Blue Zenith.

SELECTION - RIVER THAMES

In this 6f handicap I dont see RIVER THAMES being beaten. I think he has worked himself into a race where he is simply much better class than the horses that occupy this sort of race. I would have to rule out several. RIGHTCARD LEWIS is out as a filly from 5f. BLUE ZENITH is out from a seller. Several had questionable fitness like NOW YOU SEE ME, GAMBLING JACK and LOYAL ROYAL. I want to oppose the Marcus Tregonnning horse BRONTE’S HOPE an inexperienced filly down in trip. I dont think SHOT TO FAME will show his best form here over 6f and feel he will be caught out. WELCOME APROACH isnt a horse that likes the hustle and bustle and here drawn in the middle I dont see him running his best over this diatance. If I had done a shortlist it may have read like Muktasb - River Thames -Afton View. However I cant do one as I think it should have just 1 horse on it. RIVER THAMES looks a really good bet to me. Hurt badly by the draw at Doncaster last time over 7f he ran far better than it looks. He has back class that most of these would die for. He only has to give MUKTASB a pound in weight yet RIVER THAMES comes from two 0-84 class races and MUKTASB comes here beaten in 0-58 races. MUKTASB has no back class at all. The only time he has ran in class 4 handicaps before he was an outsider and well beaten. By contrast RIVER THAMES has won two and ran in far better grade. In his 34 race career RIVER THAMES has never been in class 6 before. Yes he is quirky but he is dropping into a 0-60 race and he has to be better class than that.

Posted under Main Content

Saturdays only bet PACKERS HILL WON 5/1
 
Friday’s only bet LOUPHOLE WON 7/2
 
Followed on with Todays only bet
 
 
ANGLICISME won 8/1 into 5/1
 
 

TOWCESTER 2:30 - GG.COM SELLING HURDLE (CLASS 5) (4-7yo) 2m3f110y2/1 Watching Football, 11/2 Anglicisme, Bethanys Boy, 6/1 Soviet Sceptre,
8/1 Malakiya, 10/1 Tamreen, 14/1 Dansilver, Dr Dream, 16/1 Ruling Reef,
20/1 Pips Assertive Way, 33/1 Call Me Myrtle, 50/1 Golden Streak, Hum,
JﾴAdore, Necker, 100/1 Killer Jim.

* This is a selling hurdle over 2m 3.5f
* About half the field are unfancied outsiders
* I just wonder if WATCHING FOOTBALL is weak
* September and October have had 130 selling hurdles
* Thats 130 of these races at Any trip in these 2 months
* I looked at 130 races for 4 year olds like him
* Those coming from Novice or Maiden hurdles were 4-158
* Since 1997 these horses had a 0-93 record
* When they had under 5 career starts they were 0-123
* When they ran within 10 weeks they were 0-114

That suggests to me WATCHING FOOTBALL has problems. He is after
all a lightly raced 4 year old that has had just 3 runs and David Pipe has
seen fit to drop him into sellers after such a short time with a Tongue Strap
and Blinkers. We know that inexperienced 4 year olds that come from non
handicaps are weak. All 93 that tried in the last 11 years lost. All 123 that
had under 5 runs as he had lost and the very few 4 year olds that did win
did it well over a decade ago - and did so with far more experience than he
has and did it with long absences so I am taking on WATCHING FOOTBALL.

DR DREAM is badly weighted today and has penalties and an absence and I
feel this will be beyond him. I am also opposing all the outsiders and unfancied
runners none of whom I can see a clear cut case for.

* We have 32 selling hurdles in September and October between 19f and 22f
* Horses that came from Novice or Maiden Hurdles were 0-56
* WATCHING FOOTBALL fails that and has been dealt with
* BETHANYS BOY also fails that and he isnt my choice in this race
* DANSILVER has a very unsafe profile as a 4yo coming from a chase
* I dont fancy TAMREEN
* Gary Moore sold him for £1400 last November to R Price
* He ran him once and sold him again
* He is now at a stable that have never had a winner before
* The trainer is 0-16 so far in his first season

SHORTLIST

ANGLICISME - SOVIET SCEPTRE - MALAKIYA

* Not easy to split these three horses
* SOVIET SCEPTRE is ok statistically
* I would be a bit worried he wasnt better on a sharp track
* I wouldnt want it too testing for him either
* MALAKIYA is hard to read
* I think hes better off now hurdling and with a recent run
* He doesnt offer much in the way of resolution though
* ANGLICISME is very strong statistically
* He comes from a 2m 4f claiming hurdle at Fontwell
* Last years winner also came from the same race
* Micky Pearce was well beaten in that last year and won this

SELECTION  - ANGLICISME Each Way

Posted under horse racing tips