Betting Guru

L i n g f i e l d  4.00

9/4 Kingscroft, 11/4 George Guru, 6/1 Axiom
7/1 Dubai Dynamo, 10/1 Hung Parliament,Titan Triumph
14/1 Reve De Nuit, 16/1 Final Drive.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over a mile
* Not many similar races so hard to match horses
* HUNG PARLIAMENT – 4yo seasonal debutants struggle
* None had under 13 career starts as he does
* AXIOM – No seasonal debutants won aged 7 or older
* TITAN TRIUMPH won a 7f handicap last time
* No horse as old as him won again at a mile
* Coming up in class he has a lot to prove
* DUBAI DYNAMO doesnt appeal from a 6f race
* Not as a 7yo with just 1 run since last October
* REVE DE NUIT – Just falls short and looks badly handicapped
* FINAL DRIVE -Doesnt look well treated at the moment
* I think he may need another run this year
* KINGSCROFT is an exposed 4 year old
* Similar types from 8f handicaps were 0-4
* Career high mark and unsafe profile but respected
* GEORGE GURU – Unorthodox as lightly raced 5yo
* Acceptable profile and well raced this season
* He should have a fitness edge over most of these

Selection – GEORGE GURU

Prices are coming in a  touch since this was advised to full members earlier

13/8  available at PaddyPowerBoyleSportss james – vc

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 24, 2012

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Ayr Gold Cup

S a t u r d a y   A y r   3.20

By popular demand the race I am looking at here today for
the free blog is the Ayr Gold Cup.

I feel I have something a bit stronger in the 3.55 at Ayr
but that is for full members of my paid service.
Quite rightly they moan if I post too much up here for free.

A few of you have asked about my thoughts on the Ayr Gold Cup
so here they are.

It is a huge runner field and I wont be investing heavily myself but
if you forced a tenner into my hand and told me to bet it this is why I would do.

William Hill Ayr Gold Cup
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 18 renewals of this race since 1993
* There has been 77 Similar handicaps elsewhere

* Horses aged 7 or more struggled
* None were absent as long as TAJNEED
* None were absent as long as EVENS AND ODDS
* REGAL PARADE doesnt come out well aged 7
* Not without a recent run and from Listed Class
* ANCIENT CROSS is an exposed 7yo from 6f
* He has just Class 2 Form similar horses were 1-59
* ANCIENT CROSS has more weight than that winner
* Those like him running within 2 weeks are 0-36
* ANCIENT CROSS isnt as good a fit as I want
* MAYSON shouldnt win this aged 3 with 1 run this year
* Fillies aged 3 need at least 6 runs that season
* DARAJAAT fails that with 4 runs
* MAJESTIC MYLES looks the wrong type of 3yo
* Those down in trip with 9 + runs struggled
* None had anything like his weight and I cant match him
* In 77 races no exposed horse won absent 7 + weeks
* Those that tried had a 0-66 record
* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that and is rejected
* LIGHT FROM MARS fails that and is rejected
* KALDOUN KINGDOM fails that and is rejected
* Exposed horses absent over a Month were 3-175
* None have won this race
* None were aged 4 like PEPPER LANE
* None were fillies like PEPPER LANE
* GROUP THERAPY – Wrong as exposed 6yo from 5f
* ANNE OF KIEV is a mare and fails the same statistic
* BREATHLESS KISS is wrong as an exposed filly from 5f
* I looked at Exposed horses from 7f races
* Those aged 6 or more were just 1-60
* Those without a run in the last week were 0-56
* CASTLES IN THE AIR fails that and has a bad draw
* BRAVE PROSPECTOR fails that from 7f
* HIGH STANDING also looks wrong doing this
* There were 13 winners coming from 7f
* None had just 1-2-3-4 runs that season
* ETON RIFLES fails that
* Those aged 6 or more like him needed 8 + runs that year
* ETON RIFLES falls short for me
* MAC4S POWER is exposed and from a 6f Listed race
* Horses with this profile had a 1-28 record
* That was the 1996 winner of this Royale Figurine
* She was a 4yo filly and had 6 runs this year
* MAC4S POWER is an older 5yo and a Male
* MAC4S POWER – Can’t match him as well as I’d like
* He has a tough handicap mark on ground not ideal
* SON OF THE CAT has the same profile
* He is exposed aged 5 from a Listed race
* SON OF THE CAT has a tough handicap mark
* BELOW ZERO is an exposed 4yo from 7f
* Similar horses had a 1-31 record in 77 races
* That winner had less weight than he does
* Recently punished by the handicapper he is unsafe
* OUR JONATHAN is 4 and comes from a 6f handicap
* He has a Months absence as well
* I found 2 winners that had that profile
* Both winners had 8st 8lbs or less
* OUR JONATHAN has 9st 6lbs
* I see him borderline shortlistable but the weights a worry
* The Handicapper does look in charge
* WAFFLE is an unexposed 5yo from a 6f handicap
* He has a recent race beaten about 6 lengths
* The 2000 winner of this race shared that profile
* That winner did have 20lbs less weight though
* I Dont see WAFFLE as well treated
* Having 1 career win drags his numbers down as well
* Borderline shortlistable he is respected but unsafe

S h o r t l i s t

* CROISULTAN is very hard to read
* Irish horse that comes from a Group race 7 days ago
* He looks short of runs this year for an exposed 5yo
* Coming from Group 3 races is not the norm either
* In His favour is strong recent form
* I would see him more as a Neutral profile
* He is unorthodox and not statistically strong
* I shouldnt impose English stats on Irish horses though
* CROISULTAN is respected but very hard to read

* DUNGANNON is an unexposed 4yo
* He comes from 6f and has Class 2 form
* Similar horses running within a month did win 2 races
* There is a Silver Cup winner like him
* No Gold Cup winner but DUNGANNON is shortlistable

* PASTORAL PLAYER is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* He runs within 2 weeks and has 5-6-7 runs this season
* In 77 races there were 2 horses with that profile
* These finished 1st and 6th
* PASTORAL PLAYER is very shortlistable

* COLONEL MAK is an exposed 4 year old
* He won a 6f Handicap last time over 2 weeks ago
* Similar horses had a 1-4 record
* The winner was the 2005 winner of this race (Presto Shinko)
* COLONEL MAK won the Silver Cup last year as a 3yo
* That shows me he has a good chance in this years race
* COLONEL MAK is shortlisted

Summary

CROISULTAN – Hard to read. Neutral profile
DUNGANNON – Almost right and respected
PASTORAL PLAYER – Like his profile
COLONEL MAK – Decent chance

Final Selection

Split Stake Bet

CROISULTAN  16/1 s james
COLONEL MAK 16/1 s james

Full live market odds at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-09-17/ayr/15-20/betting/

Best Wishes
Guy

Posted under Major Horse Races

Racing Tip For Goodwood

Good main bet winner last week on the blog with Russian George drifting out a touch to 11/4 and winning.

Today we are back to normal style with just a small snippet from the main message.

Not our main bet of the day as paying clients do not like it when we post them up here …. so we do it very rarely.

Join Up Properly I suggest.

On to today and a bit of interest at Goodwood.

GOODWOOD 2.25

Bluebay Handicap
(Previously Known As The Shell House Stakes)
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 7f

9/2 Bullwhip, 9/2 Desert Creek, 8/1 Hajoum, 9/1 Fathsta
9/1 Light From Mars, 10/1 Marajaa 12/1 Spirit Of Sharjah
12/1 Woodcote Place, 14/1 Coasting 14/1 Gallagher
20/1 Carnaby Street, 25/1 Elna Bright 33/1 Aspectus.

* This is a 0-98 handicap over 7f
* Goodwood have had 17 renewals of this race
* There has been 38 similar races in September

Horses aged 7 and more have struggled in these races and have a weak 1-50 record. WOODCOTE PLACE is 7 and has both a career high mark and an absence. MARAJAA is 8 and also has a career high mark and no recent race. ASPECTUS has to go as well as a 7yo with a poor last run. Exposed horses from a 6f race struggled. Those without a run in 2 weeks won nothing so FATHSTA looks opposable. Horses from 3yo handicaps have a 0-14 record in this race. Those from 3yo handicaps over 7f have a 0-29 record in the 38 similar races. BULLWHIP fails that as does CARNABY STREET. Initially it wasnt a statistic that I believed in but in 38 races there were 11 winners aged 3 and the ones that had form in Listed or Group races before had a 0-71 record. CARNABY STREET and BULLWHIP have got Group class form and that undermines their chance. I thought ELNA BRIGHT had been absent too long for an exposed horse.
COASTING comes out badly with his absence. Horses with big
weights have struggled in this race. SPIRIT OF SHARJAH looks hard to fancy with his weight and a career high mark as well as coming from the worst draw. If you take exposed horses from an 8f race you find a 3-47 record. LIGHT FROM MARS shares that profile. However none of the 3-47 winners were aged 5 so I cant match him and they all ran within 2 weeks and he doesnt. None of them had more than 9st either so with 9st 9lbs and the other angles he fails I see LIGHT FROM MARS running ok but not winning. There are 3 horses I felt I could shortlist in this.

SHORTLIST

HAJOUM – 1 similar winner who was less exposed. Ground doubt.

GALLAGHER – Complicated to read but shortlistable

DESERT CREEK – 1 similar winner but not an exact match

No outstanding profiles in this race. I notice DESERT CREEK and GALLAGHER come from the best trial race at Goodwood. That race provided the winner in 1993 1994 2000 2005 2006. I think GALLAGHER has a far better chance than it looks. He is coming down the weights. When he reaches the point where his ability excedes his rating he will win. Not certain to be today but at 20/1 and more I think he is overpriced. HAJOUM has a decent chance and I suspect his chance is about handling softer ground and how much it has or has not dried out. My problem is just how to stake the race with 3 shortlisted so I go this way

Win Bet – GALLAGHER 16/1
Win Bet – HAJOUM 10/1

Saver Bet to break level on DESERT CREEK

Current best odds available at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/

Posted under horse racing tips

Racing Tip For Lingfield

LINGFIELD 4.10

7/4 Becausewecan, 9/2 Dance The Star, 7/1 Cluain Alainn,
Samarinda, 10/1 Cashpoint.

This is a nasty framed race with 7 runners. Its a 0-92 handicap over 12 furlongs.
There has been 176 similar races at this time of year.
If you look at 4 year olds like BECAUSEWECAN who are having their
seasonal debuts when they have had 9 or more career starts their strike
rate dips dramatically and they have a 1-35 record with that winner having
far less weight. That would encourage me to oppose him first time out from his career high
handicap mark.  Equally no 4yo first time out debutant was like
CLUAIN ALAINN and he wouldnt interest me either. I think it is asking too
much of CASHPOINT to win this from a maiden and a small stable.
I think its between DANCE THE STAR and  SAMARINDA who finished
2nd and 5th in the same handicap  last time. DANCE THE STAR has a solid chance.
Statistically SAMARINDA has an excellent profile as a 7yo running well last time.
All his wins have been at shorter but he hasnt had a chance to show he stays properly
at 12f. He ran well over 12f last time but that was inconclusive.
He is probably value  but DANCE THE STAR did beat him last time.
I think I would have to bet one and save on another.
As SAMARINDA is better handicapped and a better price I’d see him as the best
option. Therefore DANCE THE STAR has to be the danger
but SAMARINDA the bet at around 7/1

SELECTION – SAMARINDA
7/1 betfred bet365

Posted under horse racing tips

Cheltenham Day 2

No joy with the free blog bets yesterday.
A touch unfortunate with the race we chose to post up.
It was one of multiple races covered for full members and it
was the other races where the winning selections arose.

Guy went through the Cheltenham card yesterday and highlighted the following selections

Dunguib win bet 10/11 – Lost
Menorah to beat Blackstairmountain in Match Bet 10/11Won
Oscar WhiSky Each Way 9/2 without the favourite  – Won

CHELTENHAM  2.05
Sizing Europe  Each Way 5/1   Won

CHELTENHAM  2.40

Split Stake Bet

Nenuphar Collonges 22/1 Lost
Kicks For Free 25/1 Lost

CHELTENHAM 3.20

Binocular 8/1 Win Bet  – Won
Solwhit 7/1  Saver Bet – Lost

CHELTENHAM 4.00

Freneys Well 33/1 Each Way
Another Jewel to beat Monkerhostin in match bet  10/11 Won

CHELTENHAM 4.40

Voler La Vedette Win Bet 2/1  Lost
No One Tells Me Place Bet 5/2  Lost

He has done a similar through the card  today for full members
*************************************************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
*************************************************

As per yesterday just one race on the free blog.

CHELTENHAM WEDNESDAY 2.05

Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle
(Registered As Baring Bingham Novices´ Hurdle)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m5f

7/2 Quel Esprit, 7/2 Rite Of Passage, 11/2 Finian´s Rainbow
6/1 Peddlers Cross, 10/1 Summit Meeting, 11/1 Reve De Sivola 1
6/1 Manyriverstocross, 20/1 Ghizao, 25/1 The Knoxs
33/1 Gus Macrae, 33/1 Some Present, 50/1 Hollo Ladies
66/1 Baily Rock, 100/1 Sleepy Hollow, 100/1 The Giant Bolster
200/1 Consulate, 200/1 Quartano.

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992

I think you can rule out half the field. Pointless doing
too much analysis on no hopers. Its not a race that is
likely to go to a complete outsider and never has done.
I think THE KNOXS is underraced for a 7yo and lacks
backclass. He looks to come up short.  I dont like a 5yo
like SUMMIT MEETING coming from just an ordinary
Novice Hurdle. I think GHIZAO is underraced as well
coming from a 2m race and with just 2 hurdle starts I’d
see him as vulnerable. MANYRIVERSTOCROSS does
not come out well from a 2m handicap and none of the
past winners were like him. Five look worth a mention.

* REVE DE SIVOLA is hard to judge
* His biggest problem is clearly his absence
* No horse won without having run in January -February.
* No Refuge had a similar profile in 2005
* He didnt have as long a break as this horse
* He was also much lighter raced
* Wouldnt rule him out
* There are better profiles for me

* PEDDLERS CROSS is 5 and comes from a 2m race
* I dont like that profile at all
* Since 1993 just 1 winner was 5 coming from 2m 4f or less
* The record was 1 winner from 33 that tried
* That winner was the mightly Istabraq in 1997
* I think we can safely say he is an exception to the rule
* Istabraq prepped over 18f before winning this
* No English horse aged 5 came 1st or 2nd in this from a 2m race
* He wouldnt be my choice to win this race

* RITE OF PASSAGE has looks top class
* He does have a few little issues to address
* Its unclear whether Cheltenham is his best track
* 3rd in the Bumper last year he was beaten a fair way
* He is a Flat Bred horse which is a concern
* This race usually falls to a National Hunt bred horse
* He has only ran twice over hurdles before
* 20 of the last 24 winners all had more than 2 hurdle runs

* QUEL ESPRIT ran in the Cheltenham bumper last year
* He was just behind Rites of Passage in 4th
* He has 3 hurdle runs and that makes more suitable
* His defeat last time did blot his copybook
* 3 of the last 7 winners were beaten though last time
* Statistically I think he is just better than Rites of Passage

* FINIAN´S RAINBOW is a 7 year old
* We know Horses aged 5 and 6 dominate
* They have won 33 of the last 38 renewals
* The last 10 winners and runner ups were aged 5 or 6
* I am not sure thats a statistic thats relevant
* FINIAN´S RAINBOW didnt start racing until he was 6
* The only previous 7yo winner started his career late
* As he is lightly raced I dont see his age as a big issue
* I looked at 7 year olds in this race since 1993
* I Looked at those starting under 20/1
* I looked at those with Grade 1 form
* I looked at those winning last time out
* I looked at those not coming from 16f races
* There were only 2 horses aged 7 with that profile
* They finished 1st (1998) and 3rd (2006)
* That tells me there is nothing wrong with his profile

SELECTION

Split Stake Bet

FINIAN’S RAINBOW 11/2

SOME PRESENT 33/1  Each Way

Interesting race. I would only want Rites of Passage
if he was strong statistically but he isnt. Quel Esprit
is slightly better but the ground could be the problem
with him and it does put me off a bit. I know horses in
this race aged 7 havent done well but I hope I have
shown that only a certain type of 7yo struggle and
horses like FINIAN’S RAINBOW are fine. I would be
having half my stake on him.

The other half of the stake is far more specualtive but
at 33/1 SOME PRESENT could be a bit overpriced. He
isnt brilliant statistically but he is 33/1 and he isnt dead my any means.
My arguments are these

* There are question marks about shorter priced horses
* He ran in the 2009 Bumper here and came second
* He was only beaten by Dunguib
* He beat Rites of Passage and Quel Esprit that day
* Since then he has a W 2 2 2 6 3 record
* Twice he has been beaten by Dunguib again
* He hasnt been well placed in his races
* He was the victim of many slow pace races
* He comes from a Grade 1 race thats a good trial
* Although beaten 13 lengths there were excuses
* He was hardly likely to beat Dunguib
* The ground was heavy that day which hurt him
* His sire has only had 2 fancied runners in this race
* They came 2nd and 4th
* He should be much better suited to faster ground
* He will appreciate the trip and the stronger pace
* There is a bit of a leap of faith but he could go well
* SOME PRESENT could run much better than expected

Posted under horse racing tips