T h i r s k 3.15

7/2 Dream Win, 7/2 Extraterrestrial, 9/2 Mountain Cat
11/2 Daring Dream, 13/2 Academy Blues, 10/1 Chosen Forever
12/1 Champagne Style, 16/1 Without Prejudice, Aerodynamic.

This is a Mile Handicap. I looked at all of these races and
I feel EXTRATERRESTRIAL is questionable as favourite.
He is well handicapped but exposed horses aged 6 or more
with 1 run this year coming up in trip had a 1-42 record in
254 similar races. That sole winner had a recent race and
he has been off 41 days and I see him as unsafe. That said
Do Not lay him. Not when well handicapped and when we
have a host of miserable profiles. DARING DREAM fails
similar angles. MOUNTAIN CAT is unsafe winning after
an absence at his age. DREAM WIN is the wrong age for
a lightly raced debutant. CHOSEN FOREVER has a long
absence. My best profile is ACADEMY BLUES. He was
below par last time but had excuses when beaten at Ascot
and I found 3 winners like him which is more than I can
say for any others. ACADEMY BLUES is my selection.

10/1 each way at bet365, BoyleSports , Coral

Guy

Posted under horse racing tips

Thirsk 4.10

9/2 Karaka Jack, 5/1 Dubai Dynamo, 6/1 Northern Fling
7/1 Arry´s Orse, 8/1 Reel Buddy Star, 8/1 Summer Dancer
10/1 Everymanforhimself, Ginger Ted, 12/1 Illustrious Prince 20/1 Qadar, 25/1 Arabian Pride, 25/1 Bond Fastrac.

* This is a 7f Handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* REEL BUDDY STAR is exposed absent 7 + months
* Thats a lot for horse on a career mark
* Ignore the horses from 3yo handicaps
* BOND FASTRAC – ARABIAN PRIDE fail that
* Horses drawn in stall 1-2 have underperformed
* 30 races here since 2008 with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn in stalls 1-2 have a 1-56 record
* SUMMER DANCER has a bad draw and modest profile
* GINGER TED has a bad draw and an unsafe profile
* QADAR is 0-27 on Grass and vulnerable
* EVERYMANFORHIMSELF – Weight and absence is a worry
* ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE – Not completely out of this
* I dont like the massive stable downgrade he had this winter
* I wouldnt see him as progressive because of that

SHORTLIST

* NORTHERN FLING – Shaky profile but a possible
* I’d like another run this year or a shorter absence
* ARRY´S ORSE – Almost right good enough to respect
* KARAKA JACK – Well treated and good profile
* DUBAI DYNAMO – Serious chance back on fast ground
* KARAKA JACK and DUBAI DYNAMO stand out to me
* DUBAI DYNAMO is a saver
* KARAKA is a win bet

Posted under horse racing tips

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LINGFIELD 3.25

Hollow Lane Handicap (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-95) 1m4f

9/4 Lovers Causeway, 5/1 King Olav, 6/1 Distinctive Image
6/1 Taaresh, 8/1 Mighty Clarets, 8/1 Scamperdale
14/1 Record Breaker, 20/1 Pelham Crescent
25/1 Mister New York, 100/1 Rugell.

This is a 12f Handicap for horses rated 0-91 and we have 176 similar races at this time of year.
Taking a few of these out It is hard to see RUGELL winning.
PELHAM CRESCENT doesnt look fit or ready to win.
MISTER NEW YORK looks unsafe to me.
SCAMPERDALE ‘s done all his winning at 10f and shorter and may not be at his best trip.
He’s 9 and comes up in distance and the only horses his age doing that had Group Class
form in the past and he does not.
RECORD BREAKER is another up in trip.
For him to have matched any winners he needed to have a more recent run
and ran better last time out. TAARESH won a 12f handicap last time out.
It was a weaker race and he won it
with a long absence. It bothers me he moves from 0-75 to this 0-91 grade and has a 10lbs higher mark.
He is up 2 grades and with 1 run only since last June I think he’s unsafe.
I don’t have a big problem statistically with DISTINCTIVE IMAGE but
we have better profiles and he doesn’t look well handicapped. I do respect
KING OLAV but I prefer others in this race.
I thought  MIGHTY CLARETS came out well but there is a strong profile.

* LOVERS CAUSEWAY has a strong profile
* Horses aged 4
* Winning a 12f Handicap last time
* Running within 2 weeks
* Carrying less than 9st 9lbs
* No form beyond a Class 3 Grade before
* Between 9 and 20 career starts
* Horses with this profile had a 8-11 record
* Those ridden by Professional jockeys were 8-9
* They finished W W W W 3 W W W W
* LOVERS CAUSEWAY has that profile

SELECTION – LOVERS CAUSEWAY

currently 5/2 at s james

Posted under horse racing tips

Good main bet winner last week on the blog with Russian George drifting out a touch to 11/4 and winning.

Today we are back to normal style with just a small snippet from the main message.

Not our main bet of the day as paying clients do not like it when we post them up here …. so we do it very rarely.

Join Up Properly I suggest.

On to today and a bit of interest at Goodwood.

GOODWOOD 2.25

Bluebay Handicap
(Previously Known As The Shell House Stakes)
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 7f

9/2 Bullwhip, 9/2 Desert Creek, 8/1 Hajoum, 9/1 Fathsta
9/1 Light From Mars, 10/1 Marajaa 12/1 Spirit Of Sharjah
12/1 Woodcote Place, 14/1 Coasting 14/1 Gallagher
20/1 Carnaby Street, 25/1 Elna Bright 33/1 Aspectus.

* This is a 0-98 handicap over 7f
* Goodwood have had 17 renewals of this race
* There has been 38 similar races in September

Horses aged 7 and more have struggled in these races and have a weak 1-50 record. WOODCOTE PLACE is 7 and has both a career high mark and an absence. MARAJAA is 8 and also has a career high mark and no recent race. ASPECTUS has to go as well as a 7yo with a poor last run. Exposed horses from a 6f race struggled. Those without a run in 2 weeks won nothing so FATHSTA looks opposable. Horses from 3yo handicaps have a 0-14 record in this race. Those from 3yo handicaps over 7f have a 0-29 record in the 38 similar races. BULLWHIP fails that as does CARNABY STREET. Initially it wasnt a statistic that I believed in but in 38 races there were 11 winners aged 3 and the ones that had form in Listed or Group races before had a 0-71 record. CARNABY STREET and BULLWHIP have got Group class form and that undermines their chance. I thought ELNA BRIGHT had been absent too long for an exposed horse.
COASTING comes out badly with his absence. Horses with big
weights have struggled in this race. SPIRIT OF SHARJAH looks hard to fancy with his weight and a career high mark as well as coming from the worst draw. If you take exposed horses from an 8f race you find a 3-47 record. LIGHT FROM MARS shares that profile. However none of the 3-47 winners were aged 5 so I cant match him and they all ran within 2 weeks and he doesnt. None of them had more than 9st either so with 9st 9lbs and the other angles he fails I see LIGHT FROM MARS running ok but not winning. There are 3 horses I felt I could shortlist in this.

SHORTLIST

HAJOUM – 1 similar winner who was less exposed. Ground doubt.

GALLAGHER – Complicated to read but shortlistable

DESERT CREEK – 1 similar winner but not an exact match

No outstanding profiles in this race. I notice DESERT CREEK and GALLAGHER come from the best trial race at Goodwood. That race provided the winner in 1993 1994 2000 2005 2006. I think GALLAGHER has a far better chance than it looks. He is coming down the weights. When he reaches the point where his ability excedes his rating he will win. Not certain to be today but at 20/1 and more I think he is overpriced. HAJOUM has a decent chance and I suspect his chance is about handling softer ground and how much it has or has not dried out. My problem is just how to stake the race with 3 shortlisted so I go this way

Win Bet – GALLAGHER 16/1
Win Bet – HAJOUM 10/1

Saver Bet to break level on DESERT CREEK

Current best odds available at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/

Posted under horse racing tips

STRATFORD 3.00

Alcester Selling Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo+)  2m6f110y

4/1 Tabaran, 11/2 Dusty Dane, 11/2 Heraldry, Irish Legend
6/1 Answer Me, 6/1 Attorney General, 9/1 Triple Bluff
16/1 Little Rort, 25/1 Eskimo Pie, 25/1 Little Blackbeetle
33/1 Brookfieldshector.

* This is a Selling hurdle over 2m 6.5f
* There has only been 20 similar races

Interesting little race. Only 20 similar races but all 20
winners ran within 10 weeks. HERALDRY has been
absent 122 days and that worries me for a 10yo with
just 2 runs this season. DUSTY DANE has been off
111 days. There were the odd chasers win like him
but the only one that was exposed had Grade 1 form
and he doesnt and that absence has to worry for an
exposed horse. ESKIMO PIE has been off 99 days
and as a horse aged 11 lightly raced this year he is
not for me. TRIPLE BLUFF has a long absence and
as an exposed Chaser I couldnt find a similar winner.
LITTLE BLACKBEETLE is too inexperienced for a
mare. ANSWER ME has just 2 runs this season. I
looked at horses like him from 2m 5f or shorter and
just two runs that year and found a poor 1-49 record.
LITTLE RORT is rated far lower than most and has a
horrible task at the weights and should be out of his
depth. IRISH LEGEND certainly has the ability but I
do have some issues with him. He comes here from a
Chase and well exposed and these horses have not
been winning these races. You have to wonder if he
is in form. He has pulled up twice in a row and his
last run was only 3 weeks ago. TABARAN has a
pretty solid profile with a recent race and although
he has limitations he should run his race which is
something not all of these can say.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

He is exposed and only 3 Exposed horses won in the
20 races. However they all had Grade 1 form as he does
as well. Exposed horses with Past Grade 1 form in these
selling races had a 3-4 record and all 3 winners were 10
and 11 year olds as he is.

* Horses with Grade 1 form before
* Running within 7 weeks
* Aged 9 or more
* Having run this season
* 6 horses had that profile in 20 races
* They finished W W W W W 8
* The only loser was an outsider
* Exposed 11 year olds with this profile were 2-2
* ATTORNEY GENERAL looks interesting statistically

He is a problem horse and hasnt won in a while
but he is down to bottom grade with a recent run.
Just 4 months ago he was 2nd at Cheltenham in a
competetive 0-120 handicap and that form would
be good enough to win this. He lost his way after
that but last time was a much better run and I see
him having the best profile in the race

Best Priced 11/2 sportingbet

Posted under horse racing tips