LINGFIELD 5.30

6/1 My Learned Friend, 13/2 Hazzard County, Oh So Saucy
7/1 Shaded Edge, 8/1 Realt Na Mara, 8/1 Rubenstar
8/1 Straight Face, 10/1 Alqaahir, 12/1 Headache
12/1 Ravi River, 14/1 Carmenero, 14/1 El Libertador
25/1 Sam´s Cross, 33/1 Oi Vay Joe, 66/1 Crystal B Good.

This 7f handicap is for Lady Amateurs. You can argue a
high draw is a must in this race but last years winner was
drawn in stall 1 just to throw uncertainty into the mix.
I’d be demanding a high draw myself. OH SO SAUCY looks
weak as a mare absent over 7 months and drawn 1. I see
ALQAAHIR as opposable. All his wins (5) are on sand
so having never won on turf its strange to see him with
a higher handicap mark on grass and I don’t like his draw.
EL LIBERTADOR - CRYSTAL B GOOD -  HEADACHE
are all badly drawn and offering nothing at all to entice me.
OI VAY JOE has been absent too long. I am happy to ignore
SAM´S CROSS - SHADED EDGE with their absences.
HAZZARD COUNTY is more complicated but he does not
come out well enough. I cant rule out REALT NA MARA but
exposed and unraced in over 6 months brings it’s own problems.
RAVI RIVER looks weak from sellers. CARMENERO weak up in trip.

MY LEARNED FRIEND is shortlistable after coming
4th in last years race from a poor draw first time out.
He has a run this year.

My selection is STRAIGHT FACE who won last time.
Its quite interesting that the last 3 winners of this race
all won last time out. Since 1993 last time out winners
in all Amateur races that had 4 or more runs that year
and that were aged under 8 years old had an excellent
W W W W W record in these races. He was a little bit
lucky to win last time but the real issue is he is fit and
running well with confidence and well drawn and with
similar horses doing curiously well in these races I see
STRAIGHT FACE as a good a bet as any in this race.

STRAIGHT FACE Each Way
8/1 William Hill 0r betfred

Posted under horse racing tips

RIPON 2.45

EUROPEAN BREEDERS´ FUND FILLIES´
HANDICAP(CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-80)1m1f170y

7/2 Antigua Sunrise, 7/2 Cascata, 9/2 Atabaas Allure,
9/2 Cwm Rhondda, 7/1 Kaloni, 8/1 Sparkling Crystal,
10/1 Island Music, 20/1 Tres Froide, 33/1 Shosolosa.

This is a Fillies Handicap just short of 10 furlongs. I have looked at the 12 renewals of this race and all 44 similar races in August. My negatives are these. CASCATA has to go with 3 runs and just a couple this year. I couldnt find a winner who had a similar profile.  CWM RHONDDA wouldnt be my first  choice as older horses with absences struggled and I didnt like  her profile. ISLAND MUSIC and TRES FROIDE would also  be negatives as well as no 4 year old came up in trip from an  8f race last time out. SHOSOLOSA is outclassed and I would  avoid these five horses in this race. This leaves a shortlist of Four. I felt they were all interesting in one way or another
without being exceptional but if I had to pick two it would be ANTIGUA SUNRISE and ATABAAS ALLURE

ATABAAS ALLURE has just come from Goodwood when
she couldnt dominate a Class 2 handicap. I dont mind that
as she was hardly beaten far and its a race that has provided a past winner of this race before and her form stands up to scrutiny. I see her trying to make all here and on a front runners track she may be able to run these into the ground.

I think ANTIGUA SUNRISE is a slightly better horse but
is she a better horse at short of 10 furlongs ? She won two on the bounce in May and June and looked progressive. It  was no surprise she lost two runs ago stepped up in trip when  statistically weak and running over a trip thats beyond her.  She ran very well last time out considering she was a big negative coming down half a mile in trip. Her runs at this  trip all came before her improvement and whilst its probably a bit on the short side I think she will cope with it but its not a front runners track and ATABAAS ALLURE could well have flown and could be hard to catch.

SELECTION

ATABAAS ALLURE 5/1 each way

Posted under horse racing tips

Saturdays only bet PACKERS HILL WON 5/1
 
Friday’s only bet LOUPHOLE WON 7/2
 
Followed on with Todays only bet
 
 
ANGLICISME won 8/1 into 5/1
 
 

TOWCESTER 2:30 - GG.COM SELLING HURDLE (CLASS 5) (4-7yo) 2m3f110y2/1 Watching Football, 11/2 Anglicisme, Bethanys Boy, 6/1 Soviet Sceptre,
8/1 Malakiya, 10/1 Tamreen, 14/1 Dansilver, Dr Dream, 16/1 Ruling Reef,
20/1 Pips Assertive Way, 33/1 Call Me Myrtle, 50/1 Golden Streak, Hum,
JﾴAdore, Necker, 100/1 Killer Jim.

* This is a selling hurdle over 2m 3.5f
* About half the field are unfancied outsiders
* I just wonder if WATCHING FOOTBALL is weak
* September and October have had 130 selling hurdles
* Thats 130 of these races at Any trip in these 2 months
* I looked at 130 races for 4 year olds like him
* Those coming from Novice or Maiden hurdles were 4-158
* Since 1997 these horses had a 0-93 record
* When they had under 5 career starts they were 0-123
* When they ran within 10 weeks they were 0-114

That suggests to me WATCHING FOOTBALL has problems. He is after
all a lightly raced 4 year old that has had just 3 runs and David Pipe has
seen fit to drop him into sellers after such a short time with a Tongue Strap
and Blinkers. We know that inexperienced 4 year olds that come from non
handicaps are weak. All 93 that tried in the last 11 years lost. All 123 that
had under 5 runs as he had lost and the very few 4 year olds that did win
did it well over a decade ago - and did so with far more experience than he
has and did it with long absences so I am taking on WATCHING FOOTBALL.

DR DREAM is badly weighted today and has penalties and an absence and I
feel this will be beyond him. I am also opposing all the outsiders and unfancied
runners none of whom I can see a clear cut case for.

* We have 32 selling hurdles in September and October between 19f and 22f
* Horses that came from Novice or Maiden Hurdles were 0-56
* WATCHING FOOTBALL fails that and has been dealt with
* BETHANYS BOY also fails that and he isnt my choice in this race
* DANSILVER has a very unsafe profile as a 4yo coming from a chase
* I dont fancy TAMREEN
* Gary Moore sold him for £1400 last November to R Price
* He ran him once and sold him again
* He is now at a stable that have never had a winner before
* The trainer is 0-16 so far in his first season

SHORTLIST

ANGLICISME - SOVIET SCEPTRE - MALAKIYA

* Not easy to split these three horses
* SOVIET SCEPTRE is ok statistically
* I would be a bit worried he wasnt better on a sharp track
* I wouldnt want it too testing for him either
* MALAKIYA is hard to read
* I think hes better off now hurdling and with a recent run
* He doesnt offer much in the way of resolution though
* ANGLICISME is very strong statistically
* He comes from a 2m 4f claiming hurdle at Fontwell
* Last years winner also came from the same race
* Micky Pearce was well beaten in that last year and won this

SELECTION  - ANGLICISME Each Way

Posted under horse racing tips

Today’s Selection

Ayr 2.55

HOTHAM 9/1

AYR 2.55 - HBG PROPERTIES HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+, 0-85) 5f

5/1 Highland Warrior, 11/2 Prince Namid, 6/1 Ice Planet, 7/1 Regal Royale, 9/1 Killer Class,
11/1 Divine Spirit, High Curragh, The Bear, 12/1 Charles Parnell, Hotham, Sandwith, 16/1 John Keats, The Nifty Fox.

This is a 5f sprint handicap for horses rated 0-82 with 20 past renewals of this race. Tougher than it usually is as all horses are experienced enough and have ran enough this year and none have absences. In a race that’s been full of shocks in the past and we don’t have any big negatives today. I would oppose all horses that had ran in Group races before like THE BEAR as all 40 that tried lost. I would take out the horses dropping from 7f or more like CHARLES PARNELL as none won. I would take out all horses that hadn’t won at the distance before like JOHN KEATS. It’s further complicated by the fact many ran in last year’s race. I think I would rather have a horse that ran within the last 2 weeks. The last 4 winners of this race all ran within the previous 7 days. In the last 20 renewals horses with 13 + career runs that didn’t race within a month had a 4-174 record which isn’t very good. I oppose HIGHLAND WARRIOR who was 4th in this last year. He’s the oldest horse yet has the longest absence. There has been 248 of these handicaps in September at all tracks. Look at horses aged 9 or more that didn’t run within 15 days and you find a 1-71 record. That shows HIGHLAND WARRIOR has a tough task. He has done very well to win 2 selling races and a 0-74 but this is tougher and his absence and age is a concern and I feel he will stop winning now and I have to oppose him today.

SANDWITH and HIGH CURRAGH are also exposed horses that haven’t ran within 2 weeks. SANDWITH won’t want the ground as bad as this and all his winning form is on better ground and he is 7lbs higher than his best previous win. You can also argue HIGH CURRAGH wants better ground and there has to be a doubt as to whether he wants 5f especially on this ground. DIVINE SPIRIT is another horse that hasn’t had a very recent race. He had a very recent run before winning this race last year and was on a roll then. Now he comes here without a recent run and off the back of a well beaten run last time much as the draw hurt him. I don’t think he is safe. I don’t want a horse that was beaten so badly as THE NIFTY FOX and I dislike his draw. You can also argue that he wants a smaller field as he is 0-26 in fields of 10 or more runners. It will be interesting to see if the only 3 year old KILLER CLASS runs after running yesterday. He was a bit unlucky yesterday but it was only a 0-68 and this is a 0-82. If you look at 3yo’s in this race they are not brilliant. In fact with 13 or more career starts they are 0-75 and that’s a worry. In 248 other races we know when 3 year olds have 21 or more runs they are 0-104 and although KILLER CLASS doesn’t fail that with 19 runs he is close and I looked at the 248 races for 3 year olds that had a very recent run within 4 days. They had a 0-18 record. Overall I would want to oppose him much as last day runners should never be taken lightly and it is an advantage. KILLER CLASS isn’t for me though.

ICE PLANET is about to win as he is so well handicapped but as he showed at Chester he really wants 6f and he may not get away with it here. This 5f is sharper than the 5f at Chester by almost 1 second and that won’t help him. He should be outpaced. He should be the fastest finisher. Quite whether he can finish well enough to win this is one of the more interesting issues in the race. My gut feeling is he will not be able to do that and he does look the stable second string behind PRINCE NAMID.

PRINCE NAMID last won 28 months ago and has lost all 28 times since then but he is well handicapped and will love conditions. Dandy Nicholls has just bought this horse in July. You have to argue it’s a serious upgrade in stable. He ran him 2 days ago where he must have needed the race after a 73 day absence. He ran well to be 3rd and I don’t doubt that Dandy Nicholls is a far better trainer for this horse but I have two worries. You can look at his recent form in two ways. Firstly will he bounce? He ran very well after a long absence and comes out very quickly and he must be a prime candidate to bounce.

The other side of that coin is whether two runs in almost 3 months is enough to guarantee
fitness on heavy ground over 5f. I would be very worried about that.

REGAL ROYALE is in flying form and at the top of his game. He likes the conditions but he is probably now at the limit of his ability. I would argue Metaphorically that whilst the water isn’t over his head in a race like this its “At his head” and in a 0-82 in a race like this he could possibly drown. I think he is a horse form Class 4 tracks and this could just be a bit above his pay grade.

SELECTION

HOTHAM

HOTHAM ran well last time on soft ground and on that run has to be given a massive chance. Whilst all his wins have come on faster ground he has plenty of soft ground form. He doesn’t seem to stay 6f on soft but he does handle soft ground at 5f. Bottom line he caught the eye last time at Doncaster staying on very late in a far better race than this 9 days ago. That’s makes him statistically perfect. That Doncaster race is a good trial race for this and it was soft that day and in another few yards he could have placed. On that form he must have an outstanding chance in this.
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Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips