SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL

A snippet from my full service over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Not a race I am staking heavily in myself but its the big race of the day and I thought you would be interested in the analysis and research.

AYR 3.25 Coral SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL
HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

7/1 Chief Dan George, 8/1 Nine De Sivola, 8/1
Tricky Trickster, 10/1 West End Rocker, 12/1
Merigo, 12/1 That’s Rhythm, Gone To Lunch,
16/1 Hello Bud, 16/1 Out The Black, According
To John, 20/1 Brooklyn Brownie, 20/1 Chiaro,
20/1 Dear Villez, 20/1 King Barry, 20/1 Sound
Accord, 25/1 Coe, 33/1 L’Aventure, 33/1 Native
Coral, 33/1 Sea Diva, 40/1 Arteea, 50/1 Le Toscan.

SPLIT STAKE BET

DEAR VILLEZ 28/1
NINE DE SIVOLA  8/1

SAVER
Place Bet on
HELLO BUD 4/1

* The Scottish Grand National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992
* I have looked at 64 other races
* Since 1993 there has been 64 Handicap Chases
* Thats 64 races between Febuary and June
* Thats 64 races over distances of 3m 7f or more
* Thats 64 races in Class 2 or Higher Grade
* This includes several Nationals and the the Eider
* These 64 are the closest races to the Scottish National

The first thing I would do is ignore horses that ran
in the Grand National. You have to go back to 1987
for the last horse to win this race coming from the
Grand National. ARTEEA fails that. I would oppose
all older horses aged 11 or more with under 5 runs
this year. NATIVE Coral is out aged 11 with 3 runs
this year. No horse has won this race with under 3
runs this year so ACCORDING TO JOHN is out.

I think LE TOSCAN is up too far in trip. Preperation
is everything in Nationals and its interesting that
horses who Fell last time out or who Pulled Up had
a 0-109 record in this race. You want a horse coming
here confident and in form and I’d be wary of horses
coming here not finishing or falling intheir last race.
GONE TO LUNCH , COE and BROOKLYN BROWNIE
have it to overcome. This trend is supported in most
similar races and not just this one and a last time out
Fall is not a profile you want in this sort of race. Both
L´AVENTURE and SEA DIVA are out as mares from 4m.

NUMBER OF CHASE STARTS (1st 2nd 3rd)

2008 – 13  9  10
2007 – 10  11 16
2006 – 19  10 14
2005 –  6   5    5
2004 – 24  19  20
2003 – 21  10  16
2002 – 14  9   8
2001 – 14  8  11
2000 –  5  10 15
1999 –  9  18  27
1998 – 10 10 17

This table shows how many Chase starts the
winner – second – third  had in recent years.
There was a winner in 2000 with 5 Chase
starts but no horse had less than that and
THATS RHYTHM has only four runs. I’d be
against him because of that and also against
TRICKY TRICKSTER who also has just Four
chase runs. TRICKY TRICKSTER comes from
a Novice Chase and No past winner of this
race did that. I think this pair might Fail.

I am against the horses that come from ordinary
Novice Chases. SOUND ACCORD does that and
is out as is THATS RHYTHM whose had only 4
chase starts and comes from a Beginners chase.

Last year was the first year that the winner had
never ran in Graded Class before. That was a 66/1
winner and I would be much happier if my horse
had previously ran in Graded Class before. This
puts me of HELLO BAY who hasnt a typical sort
of preparation anyway running very recently in
a lower class handicap. The last 11 year old to win
was in 1996 and all 48 since then lost. I think he
is beatable but I do think the fact he ran 4 days
ago may work in his favour and I am inclined to
shortlist him at the price. KING BARRY also lacks
Grade 1 form and has a Career high mark. I have
to wonder if OUT THE BLACK has the class as he
is an 11 year old and has no Graded Class at all.

Horses aged 7 have the worst record in recent years
with a 1-40 record and whilst not a good statistic I
dont want CHICARO as an exposed 7 year old who
is down from 4m races. If you look at the 64 races
at this time of year No exposed 7 year old won any
of those races. WEST END ROCKER is also a 7 year
old. He comes from a Novice Chase which worries
me.  No past winner of this came from a Novice
Chase. In 64 other races only 1 horse managed
to do it. WEST END ROCKER  has just 5 chase runs
and is a 1st season chaser and has no Graded form
at all and I didnt want to be with him.

I dont have a problem with DEAR VILLEZ at all
and as he is unexposed I like his chance giving
weight to many Novice Chasers and inexperienced
horses that all have plenty to prove. Around 28/1
DEAR VILLEZ has been underestimated here

* CHIEF DAN GEORGE looks opposable
* He comes from a Novice Chase
* No past winner of this race did that
* In 64 other races only 1 managed it (1-34)
* That was Narrow Water in the 2001 Eider Chase
* He looks inexperienced with 5 chase starts
* He is a First season chaser
* I see this as a problem coming from a Novice race
* He’s a small horse which doesnt fill me with confidence
* The only time he ran in a chase at Ayr he flopped
* CHIEF DAN GEORGE wouldnt be my choice

* MERIGO won the Eider Chase last time out
* He is 8lbs higher in this race
* No past winner came from the Eider Chase
* MERIGO has no Graded form another problem
* He is a horse that will want the ground soft
* Overall his profile does have Flaws in it

SHORTLIST

DEAR VILLEZ 28/1
NINE DE SIVOLA  8/1
HELLO BUD  16/1

* NINE DE SIVOLA was 2nd in the 2007 renewal
* He had a 10lbs lower mark but it was a good run
* Not least after running 2nd in the Irish National
* He comes from the 4m Chase at Cheltenham
* Thats one race I am fine with as a trial
* Stormez was 2nd in that before coming 2nd here
* Old Benny was 4th in this having won that race last year
* NINE DE SIVOLA has been laid out all year for this
* HELLO BUD could be worth chancing
* A Win 4 days ago could work two ways
* Given so many have poor profiles I’ll risk him

SPLIT STAKE BET

DEAR VILLEZ 28/1
NINE DE SIVOLA  8/1

SAVER
Place Bet on
HELLO BUD 4/1

Guy

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Posted under Major Horse Races

CHELTENHAM TUESDAY 2.40

William Hill TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE
GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

6/1 Wichita Lineman, 8/1 Possol, 10/1 Millenium Royal, 10/1 Patsy Hall, 10/1 Star De Mohaison, 11/1 Cailin Alainn, 16/1 Lothian Falcon, 16/1 Maljimar, 16/1 Nenuphar Collonges, 20/1 Dear Villez, 20/1 Golden Flight,  Simon, 20/1 Tot O’ Whiskey, 25/1 Wind Instrument, 33/1 Comply Or Die, 33/1 Hobbs Hill, 33/1 Lacdoudal, 33/1 Oedipe, 33/1 Reveillez, 33/1 The Sawyer, 40/1 Ollie Magern, Hot Weld, 66/1 Billyvoddan, Fundamentalist.

The William Hill Trophy is a 3m Handicap Chase. The
worst news for me was According To John missing it as
I had him lined up as an account bet. There are trends in
this race I see as relevant. I want to oppose  all exposed
horses that have just one run this season. None won this
race and in fact no exposed horse won a handicap chase
at the Cheltenham Festival with just one run that season
anytime in the last few years. Thats an interesting stat as
none were second either and I see thse horses as unlikely
to be fit enough to win. No past winners of this race had
one run that season either regardless of how exposed they
were. LOTHIAN FALCON has to be opposed because of
that. So to does HOT WELD. It is not time effective to
write essays about what trends horses at 50/1 and over

fail so I will just say that I cant see a case for any of the rank outsiders in this race and I am eliminating them all from consideration. GOLDEN FLIGHT is out with two
seasons absence as he’s also exposed. There’s not enough
about SIMON I like to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I want to take on STAR DE MOHAISON with 11st 12lbs.
There’s been 65 handicap chases at the festival in recent
years over every and any distance and only 3 winners had
11st 8lbs or more in a weak 3-125 record. Of those all 56
horses that came from Graded races lost and that doesn’t
bode well for  STAR DE MOHAISON. I have looked at
every English horse that has run in a Handicap Chase at
this Festival. There has not been one race that went to a
horse with only 1 run that season when having a break of
over a month. Because of that I am against MALJIMAR
with 1 run this season and a 115 day break. I dont have
a huge problem statistically with DEAR VILLEZ but his
weight and a few other small issues put me off him.

My problem with CAILIN ALAINN is that he has 2 runs
at Cheltenham and Fell both times much as they were in
top class races. He only has 1 past run in a competetive
handicap and he pulled up in that and none of the past
winners came here from any Graded Chase that wasnt a
handicap.

NOVICE CHASERS

Horses that come from Novice Chases are always interesting
much as only one past winner did that. There are a few here
that do that. One statistic that interested me is that since 1992 Cheltenham has had 69 Handicap Chases run at this festival. In these 69 races no horse got beaten in a Novice Chase and came out and won a handicap chase. There has only been one Handicap Hurdle at this festival go to a horse beaten in a Novice Hurdle as well which supports the stat a little bit. I dont want a horse beaten in a Novice Chase so I am ignoring  WIND INSTRUMENT who doesnt look the
type equipped with the tools you would want for a race like this. TOT O´WHISKEY also fails that and its a shame as I gave TOT O´WHISKEY a chance off his low weight and I
feel he will run very well and place in the race. I dont want to make him my selection because of that trends but I am happy to make him my selection. MILLENIUM ROYAL
also comes from a Novice with just 5 chase starts but he
won that chase so is fine. He has no handicap experience
and although I am relaxed about that he has to do all that
carrying a weight no horse has carried in years. I also feel MILLENIUM ROYAL may have problems on the track.
He has not run here over fences but his hurdle runs were
below par and I dont see him as a Cheltenham horse. The
other Novice Chaser is WICHITA LINEMAN. He won a Novice Chase last time so passes the trend. The problem he has is that he has just 3 chase starts. You can argue its very inexperienced for a race like this and it is but he is
also well handicapped today and faces a weak renewal for
me. I think you have to shortlist him as there is a general
weakness throughout this whole field

SHORTLIST

POSSOL 9/1
NENUPHAR COLLONGES 20/1
WICHITA LINEMAN 7/1

POSSOL is trying to emulate Antonin who was the last 6 year
old winner and who like POSSOL came from the Racing Post
Chase at Kempton. POSSOL doesnt have the experience that
Antonin has but he has more chase runs than a lot of  the past winners and he is not out of this. Soft ground wouldnt be ideal though but I dont think its that soft today and his chance will be about whether he as a six year old can recover quickly enough from the Racing Post Chase just 17 days ago. I would rather not have a 6 year old but I have looked at all 6 year olds to win here
in handicap chases and he is a similar type to these.

NENUPHAR COLLONGES looks to have a lot to like about him
and he isnt to dissimilar from the 2005 winner but I would have prefered Cheltenham form.

PATSY HALL has to be a big runner as he was 4th in this race last year and is now significantly lower in the weights and also has the benefit of two extra prep runs and you can be sure he hasnt been fancied yet this season. He is a bit of an Underachiever but I feel he has enough to get him on the shortlist

SELECTION

WICHITA LINEMAN 7/1 – Win Bet  ( NOW BEST PRICED AT 13/2 CentreBet
TOT O’WHISKEY – Place Bet around 5/1 ( GO TO Betfair )

I could look at this race for weeks but I would never have found a better profile than According To John but he has missed the race now and there is nothing we can do about that. I want a place bet in the race on TOT O’WHISKEY as I feel off 10st 3lbs I couldnt name 4 horses to beat him and feel he may nick a place at 5/1

WICHITA LINEMAN is my selection. I am worried about his
3 chase runs but several have been lightly raced before winning this and his handicap mark sways me. He is a festival winner and a high class hurdler rated 156 and off 142 I feel he can win this off 142. If you assume I am right about the Topweight and also right about Millenium Royal – and if you take out the no hopers in the race this is only a 0-146 handicap chase and far weaker than usual. I know the horse doesnt impress everyone and many will see him as a bad favourite today with 3 runs but I dont see
this as as competetive as it usually is and I think he can win.

Posted under Major Horse Races