Mathematician 162

Saturday 6th September

2 Account Bets in the 7.50pm Full Members Only

1 Further Selection in the 7.20pm

Todays Other Non-Account Selection

Wolverhampton 7.20

GARSTANG 16/1

Win Bet

( blog comment: 16/1 earlier when advised to full members best now as I type 14/1 bet365, betfred , Betfair )
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The weather has destroyed the Turf Racing today but I like Wolves tonight. GARSTANG (7.20pm) is not an account bet its just a normal selection but at 16/1 well worth a bet. The Racing Post suggest it hasnt been shaping like it was about to win but I disagree and tipped it recently when a non runner and I have seen three races its run recently that suggests to me its about to win somewhere and I think this is a big chance and only the competetiveness of the race stops me making him a Full bet.

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T O D A Y ‘ S R A C I N G

WOLVERHAMPTON 7:20

GET A BONUS AT WILLIAMHILL HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-65) 5f216y

5/1 Ryedane, Shakespeare´s Son, 6/1 All You Need, Littledodayno, 8/1 Cool Sands, 10/1 Back In The Red, Morse, 14/1 Danzig Fox, Grimes Faith, 16/1 Garstang, Hamaasy, Royal Challenge, 33/1 Sion Hill.

SELECTION – GARSTANG

This is a 0-61 handicap just short of 6f. Wolverhampton have had 31 of these races in September. I think you need an experienced horse with at least 13 runs as 29 of
the 31 winners had that (others 2-72) and I also think you need many runs this year. Horses that didnt have at least 7 runs that year had a 2-109 record. A Good recent run is important as well. You dont really want a horse thats come here off the back of a poor run. I wanted to oppose SHAKESPEARS SON who is one of only 2 that have to come from 5f. He looks underraced and I dont want a horse coming from a 3yo handicap with Topweight. I thought he had a weak profile. I am also going to oppose HAMAASY who looks underraced and has the longest absence to overcome
when the joint oldest horse. SION HILL didnt run well enough last time and neither did GRIMES FAITH. The other 5f horse BACK IN THE RED looks underraced this year and I dont want him. DANZIG FOX looks to have a weak profile as the least experienced runner. I dont want MORSE from the draw. COOL SANDS is not for me drawn in stall 1 having had just 1 runs since July. There will be a lot fitter
horses that him today. ROYAL CHALLENGE wouuldnt be my first choice. I dont want LITTLEDODAYNO whose the only filly in the race. In the 31 races here at Wolverhampton in September fillies that had 9st 6lbs or more had a bad 0-42 record . LITTLEDODAYNO won last time in a key piece of form as she beat RYEDANE half a length and ALL YOU NEED a couple of lengths over Course and Distance last week. Both RYEDANE and ALL YOU NEED are better off at the weights today. Watching the tape I think ALL YOU NEED may just be the weaker of the trio and I think RYEDANE may come out best today. However its G A R S T A N G that is my main interest in this race.

I tipped GARSTANG at Chester a couple of weeks ago when he was a Non runner. I felt at the time that his stable were in form – he was well handicapped. His sand mark has dropped 15lbs this year. GARSTANG had been catching my eye on tape recently having been running himself fit. He really caught my eye at Pontefract two runs ago in a
0-75 handicap where he badly missed the break and was repeatedly stopped in running and finished so well he was capable of far more. I fancied him at Chester but he did not run as rain came down. I swerved him last time out at Lingfield as it was a 0-80 handicap and just out of his depth but his run wasnt without promise. Two furlongs out he was in last place as he had been all race but he came late and made some ground up without being knocked about and I thought that was another encouraging run in a far better race than this contest. This is now a 0-67 contest and a big drop in class for a horse thats won over course
and distance. Not keen on the stable but he is drawn well and at his price GARSTANG should be given the chance to show he’s coming into form. Look at it this way. This is a
Class 6 race. GARSTANGS last 33 races have been in Higher Class. His record in Class 6 when not having a long absence is 8 W W W 2 W 4 2 and some of those defeats are excusable. He has to be worth a bet.

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Posted under horse racing tips

Mathematician 155

Friday 29th August

1 Account Bet

Todays Account Bet

Hamilton 4.15

SUPERIOR STAR

£50 Each Way 8/1

£100 Staked on the Day

SUPERIOR STAR is 8/1 with Hills -s james-betdirect – Tote
SUPERIOR STAR is 15/2 with Blue Square -Corals -888Sport

SATURDAY

Going to change strategy tomorrow and take all the pressure
off the Saturday message. I will post trends and angles for most races on Saturday on the message board this afternoon and evening. The very best races I want to bet in I will save for the E Mail. It will probably be a 2-3-4 race message. You will be able to see every angle elsewhere on the message board or if you cant access that or don’t want you just drop me an e mail and I will send you all the other thoughts separately. I am doing this as Sunday racing has to be covered and we have 2 Friday messages so it will help to reduce the time pressure
a great deal. Shorter message planned tomorrow

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T O D A Y ‘ S R A C I N G

HAMILTON 4:15 SITE SERVICES PLANT LTD HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 1m65y

3/1 Wednesdays Boy, 9/2 Five Wishes, Primo Way, 5/1 Mystical Ayr, 6/1 Superior Star, 8/1 Apres Ski,
14/1 Augustus John, Middlemarch, 33/1 Sydneyroughdiamond.

* This is a 0-70 handicap over a Mile
* Hamilton have had 38 similar races at this time of year
* I watched the down in class MIDDLEMARCH on tape
* I dont think he ran well enough to bet even in this class
* He was just struggling rather than shaping like a winner
* I would oppose APRES SKI as he comes up from 6f
* Horses that did that had pretty poor records
* AUGUSTUS JOHN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not with just 2 runs this year and well beaten last year
* Sydneyroughdiamond looks outclassed
* I think this is between the front 5 in the betting
* FIVE WISHES and PRIMO WAY were 1st and 2nd last time
* That was in the same race and it was only a claimer
* They will be close together again and hard to split
* I Looked at Fillies coming from claimers like FIVE WISHES
* They were poor (1-50) and shes 0-9 in handicaps
* That 0-9 record was mainly from far lower handicap marks
* WEDNESDAYS BOY and MYSTICAL AYR are also respected
* They were 1st and 4th in the same 0-64 handicap at Ayr 2 runs ago
* MYSTICAL AYR has since come out and run well
* WEDENSDAYS BOY came out and won at Ayr yesterday
* That was a 0-58 but he did it well and he must go close
* Running yesterday gives him a serious advantage in my view
* All these 4 look in the right grade and have reasonable chances
* WEDENSDAYS BOY would easily be my preference of these
* I just wonder if we have not got a clever dark one here
* SUPERIOR STAR Looks well worth a bet
* SUPERIOR STAR interests me a fair bit off “57″
* He was running well off marks of 70 last year
* Richard Fahey trained him then and he is now with N Wilson
* If you think about it this horse probably hasnt been staying 10f
* He is by Superior Premium who was a sprinter
* The Dam was also a sprinter
* Superior Premium has yet to breed a 10f winner yet
* All his siblings like Baltic King -Domingues and others are sprinters
* Look at his last 9 races since November 2007
* He still managed a 3rd 3rd and 4th from 3 hurdle starts last winter
* That may have fooled people into thinking he will stay further on the flat
* I think a horse like him has little chance of staying over hurdles
* I dont think he has a prayer of staying 10f
* In Febuary he ran ok at Southwell but he wouldnt have stood out that day
* He was after all coming from Hurdles and it was only Febuary
* He did nothing wrong at Warwick in March
* His last 4 runs all had valid excuses
* You can take out his last run over 10f – he didnt stay that day
* Watched the video and he was a blatant non stayer
* Before stamina gave out he was running a blinder
* Take out that run and his 10f Beverely run as well in July
* He flopped at Thirsk and I am not sure why
* It was a rough race – he missed the break as well and was eased
* He was also badly hampered at Pontefract as well
* The racing post rate him “significantly better than the bare form”
* Back to a mile in a small field his horse must go well
* SUPERIOR STAR Looks a strong bet
* I would have to consider a “save” on WEDNESDAYS BOY
* Alternately an each way option

Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips