William Hill Lincoln Statistics

Forecast Odds
7/2 Expresso Star 7/1 Swop , 8/1 Charm School, 10/1 Huzzah
12/1 Don’t Panic 12/1 Flipando, Zaahid , 14/1 Titan Triumph
16/1 Benandonner ,20/1 Blythe Knight, 20/1 Docofthebay
20/1 Mia’s Boy, 20/1 Whistledownwind, 20/1 Bolodenka
25/1 Lady Deauville , 25/1 Eva’s Request, 25/1 Royal Power
25/1 European Dream , 25/1 Dream Lodge, 25/1 Cobo Bay
25/1 Ace of Hearts, 33/1 Philario.
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* The Lincoln is a Class 2 Handicap over a Mile
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* There has been 57 similar races elsewhere
* Horses aged 7 or more have a 1-43 record in this race
* Horses aged 7 or more struggled in 57 races
* They had a 2-144 record
* Those aged 7 + with Group form were 0-47
* Those aged 7 or more that were Male were 0-139
* The only runners aged 7 + to be considered are female
* Horses aged 6 or more are just 3-116 in this race
* All 3 were exposed and seasonal debutants
* None of the winners aged 6 + had ran in Group races before (0-42)
* None of the winners aged 6 + had ran this season (0-35)
* They all came from Class 2 handicaps last year
* None of the winners aged 6 + had 9st 1lbs or more (0-33)
* Horses with under 4 runs have a 0-7 record in this race
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs won only 4 of the 17 Lincolns
* Exposed horses won 13 of the 57 other handicaps
* Those with prior Group Class form were just 1-88
* Those dropping from 9f or more were 0-97
* Those with 9st 5lbs or more were 0-101
* Exposed horses winning the Lincoln were all seasonal debutants
* Those that had run this season were 0-59
* Exposed horses aged under 6 were just 1-57
* Exposed horses that ran in Group Class before are 0-34
* Exposed horses that are Male have a poor 2-135 record
* Exposed horses beaten 10 + lengths last time are 0-50
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs carrying 9st 1lbs or more are 0-36
* Horses with 13 + runs that ran on sand this winter were 1-94
* Horses with 13 + runs that ran in Group Class before were 0-71
* Horses with 13 + runs that carried 9st 1lbs or more were 1-63
* Horses with 2 + runs this season were 1-51
* 6 winners came from the All Weather
* 5 of the 6 winners coming from the sand had under 13 starts
* Horses that came from the sand with 13 or more starts were 1-103
* All 41 aged 6 or more that came from the sand lost
* None of the Sand winners lost by 10 + lengths last time (0-37)
* None of the 6 winners from the Sand came from 7f or shorter (0-31)
* Only 1 of the 6 winners from the sand carried 8st 12lbs or more (1-44)
* Looking at the record of 4 year olds in this race
* Horses aged 4 are best with 4-20 starts
* Horses aged 4 already tested in Listed Grade or higher are 1-52
* Horses aged 4 that were absent 7 months or more were 0-18
* Fillies aged 4 are 0-17
* None of the 4 year old winners came from a 3yo handicap (0-18)
* None of the 4 year old winners lost 10 +lengths last time (0-43)
* Looking now at 5 year olds
* Horses aged 5 are best with 9-20 races
* None of the past 5 year old winners had ran in Group class before (0-19)
* Three recent 5yo winners came here having placed on sand within 2 weeks
* The LINCOLN winner has rarely run in Group Class before (1-90)
* In 16 renewals the only past winner that did that was Babodana (2004)
* Those that did run within 15 days had the following traits – They were all:
* Male horses Aged 4 or 5 with 5-20 runs that came Placed from a Class 2 handicap
* They also ran over at least a mile are had under 9st
* If you look at seasonal debutants they won 13 of the 16 renewals
* Seasonal debutants that came from 9f or more had a weak 1-74 record
* Apprentice Jockeys had a 1-64 record in the last 16 years
* In 16 renewals horses beaten 10 lengths or more last time had a 1-119 record
* All 16 winners had at least placed in their last 6 runs and 15 had won
* None of the 16 winners came from a Class 4-5-6 handicap last time out
* Horses from 6f races won in 1994 and 1995
* Both were seasonal debutants aged 4 or 5 and had 8st 6lbs or less
* Horses that came from 9f or more have won 2 recent renewals
* Those with under 9 runs were 0-15
* None of these horses that came from 9f or more had 21 + runs (0-41)
* None of these horses that came from 9f or more were aged 6 or more (0-36)
* Horses that were in the Top 3 of the weights had a 1-54 record
* Horses with 9st 1lbs or more had a 2-91 record
* Both winners had under 21 starts and were seasonal debutants aged 4-5
* If a Horse has come 2nd in their last 6 runs – but not won its a problem
* These types have a 0-71 record
* Horses up in trip with fewer than 13 previous races had a 1-34 record
* No horse won this race coming from a 3 year old handicap before
* Horses with 9st 3lbs or more had a weak 2-74 record
* Horses with 9st 1lbs + with 21 or more races before had a 0-36 record

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Posted under Major Horse Races

WOLVERHAMPTON  3.30

William Hill LINCOLN TRIAL (HANDICAP)
(CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-105) 1m141y

4/1 Flipando, 11/2 Flowing Cape, 8/1 Capricorn Run,
9/1 Ace Of Hearts, 10/1 Mahadee, 10/1 Whitcombe Minister,
12/1 Bolodenka, 12/1 Extraterrestrial, 14/1 Flawed Genius,
14/1 Nightjar, 16/1 Lucky Dance, 16/1 Samarinda, 33/1 Raptor.

* This is a 0-105 Handicap
* This race has been ran 12 times before
* Most winners were lightly raced aged 4 and 5
* Horses aged 4 and 5 won 11 of the 12 renewals
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs won just 2 of the 12 renewals
* Exposed horses that were aged 6 or more were 0-47
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR – CAPRICORN RUN -ACE OF HEARTS
* SAMARINDA – BOLODENKA -FLIPANDO – LUCKY CHOICE
* Exposed horses that didnt run within 2 weeks were 0-53
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR – ACE OF HEARTS – EXTRATERRESTRIAL
* SAMARINDA – BOLODENKA -LUCKY CHOICE
* Exposed horses not 1-2-3-4 last time were 0-39
* The following horses fail that
* RAPTOR – MAHADEE – SAMARINDA – LUCKY DANCE
* This race usually goes to either a seasonal debutant
* Or a horse with 2 or more runs since January 1st
* Every past winner came from a handicap (Others 0-38)
* SAMARINDA
* None of the winners came from 6f or shorter
* NIGHTJAR – FLOWING CAPE fail that
* There has been 322 Class 2 handicaps at 8f
* Thats 322 races anywhere and any time of year
* In 322 races horse from 6f races won just 2
* They had a 2-106 record and both winners had long breaks
* Those that ran within 10 weeks were 0-80
* Based on these trends I would shortlist the following

MAHADEE
WHITCOMBE MINISTER
FLAWED GENIUS

* MAHADEE fails one trend above
* Exposed horses not 1-2-3-4 were 0-39 in this race
* Ignore that statistic for this horse
* He is only just exposed with 21 career starts
* His Saddle slipped last time and he was heavily eased
* MAHADEE comes from a 7f race at Lingfield
* The 2007 and 2008 winners of this came from that race
* MAHADEE has every chance of making that 3 in a row
* WHITCOMBE MINISTER is interesting
* He’s a similar profile to 2002 winner Dayglow Dancer
* The one worry is he comes from 12f
* That was last year though and he is unexposed
* FLAWED GENIUS is another with a fine chance

SELECTION

Given the seasonal debutants are 4 year olds I have
to go with MAHADEE each way coming from the best trial
race but the best saver may be Whitcombe Minister

Mahadee is currently 9/1 Ladbrokes, sjames and William Hill

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips

Mathematician 285

Blog Selection

Lingfield 3.35

INTERNATIONALDEBUT

Each Way Single BEst Price 10/1 William Hill , Ladbrokes, Coral

**********************

On the Service for Full Members of mathematician-betting there are seven previews
today with 5 at Lingfield and 2 at Wolves.
The 1.20 at Lingfield is a novelty selection
so lets ignore that to start with. That leaves 6 previews.
It sounds far too ambitious to say this – especially as its
Lingfield and its a Saturday but the remaining 6 previews
have produced 6 very strong selections. I feel that I have
Nailed it today and I fancy all 6 very strongly. I think it
is that good a message. Realism tells me I have no hope
of getting 6 winners in 6 races but I dont see where my
weak link are and I wouldnt have a problem at all with
making any of the 6 selections and had the prices been
better in a few cases even account bets were possible in
many of these races. This makes picking the right ones
today for the top of the message a nightmare.

**********************************************

T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

Yesterday we had no business and just side stepped a pretty
limited day that didnt offer anything. Hope thats put me in
the right frame of mind for a much busier day today. With
all the inspections and marginal decisions about what is on
and whats off I decided to concentrate mainly on the sand.
Its a Number Cruching Blockbuster at Lingfield and Wolves
and whilst maximum respect is given both tracks I have had
a good crack at both meetings and hope for a good day.

For the free blog I am lookign at just one race at Lingfield.

LINGFIELD 3.35

WIILIAM HILL TOP TEAM FOOTBALL
PRICES HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) 1m2f

9/2 Lady Jane Digby, 5/1 Baylini, 11/2 Philatelist,
8/1 Ace Of Hearts, 8/1 Formation, 8/1 Internationaldebut,
14/1 John Terry, 16/1 Al Muheer 33/1 Prairie Spirit.

* This is a 10f handicap for horses rated 0-100
* We have had about 64 similar races run before
* PRAIRIE SPIRIT looks unfit to win a race like this
* ACE OF HEARTS is a 10 year old
* None of the 64 winners were that old
* He also has to step up from a Mile
* No horse aged 8 or more managed that
* He also has just 1 run since October
* He isnt well treated for his age and hasnt won at 10f before
* I dont see ACE OF HEARTS as a good bet here
* AL MUHEER has only ever won a maiden
* That instantly made him badly handicapped
* All 14 races since he has lost and is only 5lbs lower
* He has never done the trip before
* It will need to improve him a lot to win a 0-100
* That said AL MUHEER might find that improvement
* He is a fair price at 14/1 and has an outside chance
* JOHN TERRY looks more of a 12f horse
* He has a chance but I have to prefer others
* The race 14 days ago at Lingfield could be important
* FORMATION won that race at 11/1
* LADY JANE DIGBY was 2nd and BAYLINI 3rd
* INTERNATIONALDEBUT was back in 4th
* Less than 2 lengths seperated all 4 runners
* FORMATION won that race 14 days ago
* He had previously been beaten in a claimer
* I think the race was run to suit him last time
* I wouldnt be confident he would beat them all again
* His draw in stall 2 could be an issue
* The last 13 handicaps here with 8 or more runners
* None went to horses drawn in stall 1 or 2
* Only 1 went to a horse drawn 3 as well
* Higher drawn horses have had the edge recently
* This puts me off FORMATION and CONFIDENTIALITY
* I dont want to shortlist FORMATION
* LADY JANE DIGBY is another filly
* Fillies that came from handicaps were 1-45
* They dont score well but you have to respect her
* She’s in form – unexposed and has run in the class before
* LADY JANE DIGBY is respected and shortlisted
* BAYLINI has a chance but does have a bit to prove
* He hasnt yet won from his mark or in the class before
* INTERNATIONALDEBUT is a big runner for me
* He has won from marks of 87 and 92
* Today he has a mark of 95 but that doesnt worry me
* His last 3 runs all had excuses from marks of 99
* Three runs ago he dropped from 8f to 6f a big problem
* I didnt fancy him that day and he duly lost
* Two runs ago he moved up to 7f
* He had a 0-50 stat to overcome that day and lost
* That was no surprise as it was also his Southwell debut
* He ran in the race 14 days ago behind Formation
* He was a fast finishing 4th that day but he may improve
* That day he was up from 7f to 10f
* That had to have inconvenienced him
* Now conditioned at 10f he looks a big runner
* PHILATELIST is respected and has a chance
* He is slowly getting fit now
* Not the best handicapped horse in the race but all class
* PHILATELIST has to be respected but not for me

SHORTLIST

INTERNATIONALDEBUT
LADY JANE DIGBY

SELECTION – Its a wide open race but I feel I have made
a reasonable case for INTERNATIONALDEBUT and he is my main fancy in the race.
I think his last run has been criminally ignored. He was inches behind 3 of these when
having a 3f step up in trip which disadvantaged him. I feel
10f here must be in his range lookingat his form especially
here. If they got off hard he might be suited to a come from behind run and if there
is no pace he has a turn of foot. I see him coming fast and late and whilst this is not easy
and he does have a bit to prove like many others he looks the forgotten horse and a really big price around 10/1

SELECTION – INTERNATIONAL DEBUT  EACH WAY at 10/1

Posted under horse racing tips