Turf Management At Aintree

The Grand National is arguably the pinnacle of UK horse racing, with the race itself commanding the highest prize for winning. Last year’s winner, One For Arthur became only the second horse trained in Scotland to win the race and finished four and a half lengths ahead of Cause of Causes.

Blaklion is the favourite on the latest on the Grand National bets for 2018 while Total Recall and the Last Samuri are not far behind this year’s favourite. Blaklion finished fourth in last year’s race and will be hoping to improve on that position in this year’s race.

The preparations for the Grand National are already underway, with the racecourse requiring months of work to get everything just right. Everything from making sure the going is perfect to completing the construction of the sixteen fences. The Grand National course itself is one of the most demanding courses in the country for the horses to race, while the construction of the fences and the ground preparation are equally demanding. It takes roughly three weeks to prepare the course with each of the sixteen fences taking two days to construct and dress.

For the day of the Grand National there is a huge increase in the number of ground staff that are on site to make sure everything is perfect for the big race. On this day there are usually 225 ground staff, whereas a normal race day at Aintree will only see forty members of the grounds team on site.

Our Friends at Betfair  created the following infographic which describes all of the different stages that are involved in getting the Aintree race course ready for one of the biggest races in British racing.









Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on February 28, 2018

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Big Priced Each Way

Only Musselburgh on the Flat today and that track wouldn’t
make my list of favourite tracks. Kempton is on the sand a
tough competetive card but we are short of flat cards today.
I have dipped into a National Hunt race but the advice below
I would not steam into with big cash.

Next week will be a huge week. There is a Bank Holiday.
Some very big trend races. There is a Grand National.
I will be stronger at Aintree this year than ever before
witha  huge ammount of pre research already done.

T o d a y ‘s  O p t i o n s

I could have had some shorter priced bets but I didnt want
that. Equally some of my bigger priced options overreach
a little and I am resigned to having a very quiet Saturday
knowing full well we will fire up dramatically next week.
Being a Saturday I will highlight one bet. I’ve a negative
in the 4.05pm and the two obvious alternatives are short
of what I want. There are two very big prices in the race.

Haydock 4.05

VINTAGE STAR 16/1 Each Way

DIZZY RIVER  16/1 Each Way

You can get 18/1 and 20/1 in the offices and both will
be bigger on Betfair. I you bet both each way we have
only got to get one placed to break level and I feel we
could do better than that. Novice Handicaps are quite
complicated but my angles offer encouragement and I
think on a dangerous Saturday we should keep it tight
and wait for Grand National week where tracks suit me.

S t r o n g e s t   S t a t i s t i c   T o d a y

H a y d o c k   4.05

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
* In Thursdays message I gave a good Stat in a similar race
* I want to give another interesting statistic here
* It involves FOURTH ESTATE who fails my angles

* Novice Handicap Hurdles in March and April
* Between 2m 3f – 2m 4f – 2m 5f
* Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles over 2m 2f or less
* I found the odd winner with many years ago
* None were like FOURTH ESTATE though
* Those that won last time out were 0-38
* That strikes me as quite a telling statictic
* The record of these horses since 1998 was poor
* None of them had just 1-2 runs that year like him
* FOURTH ESTATE has a weak profile in my view

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
* In Thursdays message I gave a good Stat in a similar race
* I want to give another interesting statistic here
* It involves FOURTH ESTATE who fails some angles

* Novice Handicap Hurdles in March and April
* Between 2m 3f – 2m 4f – 2m 5f
* Horses coming from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
* Horses coming up in trip from 2m 2f or less
* I found the odd winner with many years ago
* None were like FOURTH ESTATE though
* Those that won last time out were 0-38
* That strikes me as quite a telling statictic
* The record of these horses since 1998 was poor
* None of them had just 1-2 runs that year like him
* FOURTH ESTATE has a weak profile in my view

I think the race is set up for an each way alternative.
I do not want CHADFORD from a 4yo race. KINGS LODGE
and EYRE APPARENT didnt run well enough last time.

* SYDNEY PAGET – 5yo from a novice hurdle
* He has an absence of over 7 weeks
* I found a 2-54 record from these types
* None like SYDNEY PAGET won last time out
* None carried more than 10st 9lbs and he has 11st 10lbs
* SYDNEY PAGET feels unsafe to me
* PINEROLO – Overall positive but not brilliant
* VINTAGE STAR – Hard to read but overall positive
* DIZZY RIVER – Shortlistable and not a bad price
* PERSIAN SNOW – I’d prefer more runs this season
* I found a 7yo winner like him but not 6yo
* GRANDADS HORSE – Comes out as a potential e/w bet
* GRANDADS HORSE – Weight could be his biggest flaw
* All the similar winners had marginally lighter weights


Split Stake Bet

* VINTAGE STAR 20/1 Each Way s james
* DIZZY RIVER  20/1 Each Way  s james

* Only 1 needs to place to return stakes
* Every £10 bet means £2.50 each way on both horses







Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday After Cheltenham

No free tip message today. I only put a
few hours in to the Saturday meeting after Cheltenham
as the festival work is so demanding and I find it impossible
to raise my game today.
We made some serious profit at Cheltenham.
That’s over now and we have targets ahead.

The Year takes a very
sharp turn now Cheltenham has gone. We are heading
towards the flat season and finally some serious racing
with one eye on the Grand National meeting. This year
I will provide extensive statistics in all races at Aintree.
I have never done that before as I haven’t had the time
in the past because the start of the flat took over.
I’m going to put enough time aside this year and sort it out.
At some stage I have to move house as well.
It’ll have to be a very well planned next few weeks.
The carnival is over and we an regroup on Monday or
Tuesday and getback to some normality as the flat racing is coming.

A very nice end to the festival with the only bet on the
day SYNCHRONISED winning the Gold Cup at a decent
price. He turned the festival from a reasonable one to a
very good one. I was right to keep the bets down with a
lot of unsortable races yesterday. In the extra analysis section
Salsify won for us and we had a good 16/1 each way place in the
Grand Annual so the bottom of the message more than paid it’s way but it was really about SYNCHRONISED available at 9/1 and 10/1 and a
truly brilliant ride from Tony McCoy. There are plenty
of ups and downs in this game but betting a winners of a
top class race at good odds is as good as it gets and that
put the seal on a really good Cheltenham Festival for us

Feedback from new members over Cheltenham has been very positive.

Not surprising as they made some significant profit.
My quick back of envelope calc is that we had firm bets in 12 Cheltenham races.
£50 total staked per race would have made a net profit in the region of £650 to £700

The deal page we will leave up till Monday morning.
It’s a a very good offer adn a great opportunity for anyone interested to test the
beauty of the full service proper with their own eyes.


Back next week however fingers crossed with the usual Saturday Free Blog Tip.

Posted under horse racing tips

Ascot Racing Tip

We head off to Ascot this week for our free Saturday horse racing tip.

This is just a small extract from a much more comprehensive analysis of todays racing we provide to full members over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

ASCOT 3.10

Carey Group Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m1f

7/2 Woolcombe Folly, 4/1 Cockney Trucker, 9/2 Noble Alan
7/1 Consigliere, 7/1 Pickamus, 7/1 Tatenen, 15/2 King Edmund 20/1 Piraya.

This is a Class 2 Handicap Chase. I looked at the 58 similar Class 2 Handicaps in November between 2m and 2m 2f to get an idea of what has been winning these races. Horses in 58 races that dropped from 2m 5f or more with 1 run that season were 0-21 and that puts me off TATENEN. I dont think PICKAMUS or KING EDMUND did enough last time
out. The issue with COCKNEY TRUCKER apart from the
ground possibly being too soft is his absence. I have found  an 8yo Novice Chase winner like him but that horse had a far more recent run and won a Cheltenham race and he has only won a Huntingdon Chase and 63 days ago and that is not enough for me. I dont fancy PIRAYA at 2 Miles first
time out. He drops 14f in distance and got round at Aintree
in the Grand National so 2m first time out is asking a lot.
I looked at seasonal debutants with 13 or more career starts and those without form in a Grade 1 race had a 1-20 record. Thats something CONSIGLIERE faces and considering that winner had far less weight and he starts the year on a stiff rating I think CONSIGLIERE is up against it first time out. WOOLCOMBE FOLLY is 7 coming from a Novice Chase
last season. Horses with that profile and at least 9 runs like him had a 1-3 record. These 3 horses finished W 2 3 and it makes WOOLCOMBE FOLLY a positive much as the one
winner in that came from 2m 5f and he doesnt.

NOBLE ALAN has a decent profile

* Horses aged 7
* Won a Handicap Chase last time out
* 1 or 2 runs this season
* Form in a Grade 1 race before
* Coming from 17f or shorter
* Horses with that profile had a 5-8 record
* They finished W W 4 W 2 W 2 W

Selection Noble Alan 4/1 at various inc Ladbrokes, Coral, bet365 , PaddyPower

Posted under horse racing tips

Carlisle Horse Racing Tip

Today is probably the quietest Saturday we will get
for a few months. No Flat cards at all. Kempton is an
awful card on the sand. That just leaves an all chase
card at Carlisle and Haydock where neither card has
a maiden or Novice Hurdle. It’s a very drab saturday.

Our season proper will start on Bank Holiday Monday.
Next week will be a significant week. The Flat starts to
take off and get busy and the Grand National meeting
at Aintree dominates so I can start to give more bets
and have much more choice and variety something I
just have not had this week or today which is awful.

Done what I can looking at a few races today but we
have not been offered anything interesting and Not
close to having a Bet today. There are a few horses
with good solid profiles today but not exceptionally
good ones. Reluctant to go with any horse today at
the top of the message. I’m not going to let the worst
Saturday Cards in months seduce me into a serious bet but
now the Flat is back we will get a lot busier from now on.

If stuck for inspiration today however consider the following


More Live Football Betting At Totesport.com
Novices´ Chase (CLASS 3) (5yo+)  2m4f

13/8 Mr Woods, 3/1 Finney, 7/2 Youngstown
7/1 Ginolad, 15/2 Heez A Steel.

This is a 2m 4f Novice Chase. There has been 453 similar
races at this time of year. I dont have a big problem with
FINNEY’s absence or the fact he is so lightly raced this
season but any horses that won with his profile had not
come from a Handicap. I couldnt find one from a Novice
Handicap and I wasn’t that impressed with his profile.

* YOUNGSTOWN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not coming down 12f in 17 days
* HEEZ A STEEL has a poor profile
* Exposed horses from hurdles struggled
* None dropped in trip and I thought he was unsafe
* GINOLAD has a difficult profile to read
* He is 10 and most of his career was in Australia
* He won the 2008 Australian Grand National
* Good start to his English career but he has regressed
* I couldnt rule him out but I couldnt find a similar winner
* I thought MR WOODS had the strongest profile


* Males winning 2m 4f Novice Chase last time
* 13 or more career starts
* 5-6 runs this season
* Running within a month
* There were 20 horses with that profile and 10 won
* The 10 losers finished 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 F
* MR WOODS has a strong profile

5/2 at many including  PaddyPower s james BoyleSports bet365

Posted under horse racing tips