For your info yesterday we advised a Full Bet to Members
to back EXMOOR RANGER & THE RAINBOW HUNTER
both each way at circa 25/1.

So first Full bet this week Lost. I suppose at the 25/1 prices
it couldn’t have been unexpected. I have never been one to
focus on short priced winners. At the end of a season you
don’t count winners you count profits. Planning to play in
a few Handicap Chases this week but yesterdays race
got the better of me and we ended up 1-0 down. Not
the result I expected. THE RAINBOW HUNTER did
not run badly for a while but didnt jump well enough
to keep in touch with them when they quickened and
faded. EXMOOR RANGER finished 6th with most bookies going 5 places
and it is hard to know if a slow start when detached and left behind
the field made any difference. Looked as if he may get
placed at one stage but neither ran well enough and we
got nothing back.

The full member message held its own for most
of the other races.
SPIRIT SON – REALT DUBH – SPARKY MAY and
GARDE CHAMPETRE all suggested each way
placed comfortably enough.

Onto Today

 

CHELTENHAM 1.30

140th Year of The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
(Amateur Riders? Novices? Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 4m

Forecast Odds

7/2 Alfa Beat, 5/1 Chicago Grey, 7/1 Beshabar, 7/1 Some Target
12/1 Aberdale, 12/1 Sona Sasta, 14/1 Arabella Boy, 14/1 Chamirey
20/1 Be There In Five, 20/1 Glenwood Knight, 20/1 Pearlysteps
25/1 Captain Americo, 25/1 Major Malarkey, 33/1 On His Own
40/1 Regal Approach, 50/1 Double Pride, 100/1 Carlas Dream.

* This is a 4m Novice Chase for Amateurs
* I would want at least 4 runs that season
* Only 1 of the last 17 winners had under 4 runs that year
* That was the 1998 winner who was different class
* The last 18 winners had the following races that year
* 4-5-5-4-4-4-5-8-5-6-2-7-7-6-5-10-4-4

* BESHABAR only has 2 runs this season
* That worries me especially as he is older than ideal
* His 3 Chase runs have hardly set pulses racing yet
* SONA SASTA also has just 2 runs this season
* Thats not enough for me as he’s just 2 Chase starts
* You really want at least 1 more chase runs
* I think that will catch him out
* Especially as most past winners had more backclass
* Most also had a more recent run
* SONA SASTA is rejected
* CARLAS DREAM looks outclassed
* DOUBLE PRIDE has a poor preparation
* PEARLYSTEPS is statistically not quite right
* I dont like horses aged 8 or more from 2m 6f or less
* They have a 1-31 record in this race
* That winner had 6 runs that season not 4 like him
* That winner won last time and had a recent race
* PEARLYSTEPS doesnt offer me enough
* I also feel here is a stamina doubt there
* His sire hasnt had a winner beyond 3m 4f yet
* REGAL APPROACH is 8 and comes from 2m 4f
* No winner had a similar profile and I dont like him
* ABERDALE is owned by Trevor Hemmings
* Both the owner and the sire have won this race before
* I thought he had only one problem a 112 day break
* He was due to run a few weeks ago but had a setback
* That could leave him short for this race
* 14 of the last 16 winners ran within 7 weeks
* He is not for me with a long absence
* CAPTAIN AMERICO is a 9yo with 13 + runs
* Not the best age but older horses can and do win
* What troubles me is they all had 9 + runs this year
* Only 2 horses aged 9 or more with 13 + runs won
* They had 9 and 10 races that season
* CAPTAIN AMERICO has only had 4 runs
* Not enough for a 9 year old with 13 + runs
* Horses aged 6 have a weak record in this race
* I would be very dubious about these horses
* MAJOR MALARKEY pulled up at Haydock last time
* I looked at horses from handicaps with 9 or more runs
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year were 0-25
* Those that ran within a Month like him were 0-44
* None Pulled up of fell last time and none came from 27f +
* MAJOR MALARKEY doesnt have a great preparation
* ON HIS OWN looks too inexperienced with 2 runs
* Short of runs this year I’d ignore him
* BE THERE IN FIVE won 11 days ago
* Horses with recent runs have struggled in this race
* I’d have prefered at least 1 more run this season
* I also feel there is a genuine stamina doubt

SHORTLIST

* ALFA BEAT was a big gamble last week
* His problem is he has not ran in 182 days
* We know 14 of the last 16 winners ran within 7 weeks
* Neither of the ones that didnt were as exposed as him
* With 11 Chase starts he has had more than ideal
* He doesnt leap off the page to me with that absence
* He comes here  with a W W W W W record
* Soemone clearly thinks he has improved again
* Surely 9/2 is short enough anyway with his absence

* CHICAGO GREY is having his 10th Chase start
* Happy with his general exposure
* It worries me he has had 9 runs since last July
* Thats a long time on the go for a race like this
* The winner in 1993 had 10 runs that season
* There are a few little niggles I have with him
* No past winners came from a Grade 1 race like him
* His Sire hasn’t had a 4m winner yet
* May mean nothing but you do need a stayer here
* He had the speed to win a 2m race over hurdles last year.
* I see his absence of 78 days one of his big problems.
* Only 2 of the last 16 winners were absent 7 + weeks
* Both were lighter raced than he is
*  I see him more as Neutral than negative

* CHAMIREY has quite a good profile
* I would have to make him a positive
* I do have some reservations with him
* I can’t match him as closely as I’d like
* He has made mistakes in all 4 of his Chases
* He wont get away with that here
* I also wonder if he will stay 4 Miles here
* His sire’s had a 3m 7f winner (Laddoudal)
* None have won at 4 miles yet

FAVOURED SELECTIONS

* ARABELLA BOY is a 6 year old
* I wonder if he will stay 4 Miles
* His Sire has a 1-48 record with runners at 3m 3f +
* He has sired a Midland Grand National winner (4m1f)
* Thats takes a lot of the doubt away
* Only 1 from 48 over 3m 3f isnt impressive though
* I dont mind the 6yo statistic too much
* Only 1 have won but that doesnt tell the true story
* Many were massive prices and not fancied
* Many more have finished 2nd and 3rd in the race
* He has a recent run and is one of the fittest horses
* ARABELLA BOY has experience on his side

* SOME TARGET has just won at 3m 4f on soft ground
* He is the right age and has the right exposure
* He also has a more recent run than several here
* His right handed track form doesnt worry me
* Plenty of handicappers have won this race
* He does look a solid option to me

I’d Suggest a Split Stake Bet

SOME TARGET 7/1 – Half your stake to win
7/1 At Several spots inc Tote Paddy Power Ladbrokes

ARABELLA BOY  – Half your stake each way
You can get 11/1 Sporting Bet paying 4 places

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

In the Kim Muir I am heavily involved with two bets.
I have backed SHILLINGSTONE at 8/1 and I have a
nice bet at 20/1 on BOYCHUK as well. I have to bet
BOYCHUK as a saver but one that wins plenty too.
What I like about this pair is not so much the profiles
they have but the negative profiles many of the other
horses have. I am not just talking about them being
unsuitable for todays race. I am talking about horses
who have profiles that wouldnt have won any chase
at Cheltenham in the last 15 years such is their lack
of neccesary requirements. Some Powerful negatives
in this race. I know there are 24 runners and luck will
be important but take your time when reading why I
am on them and you will hopefully agree I have made
a strong case for both horses winning this race.

**********************************************

CHELTENHAM 4.40

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
(Handicap Chase) (Amateur Riders)
(CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-140) 3m1f110y

13/2 Ballabriggs, 7/1 Shillingstone, 8/1 Galant Nuit
12/1 Isn´t That Lucky, 12/1 Nostringsattached
16/1 Faltering Fullback, 16/1 Finger Onthe Pulse
16/1 I´moncloudnine, 16/1 Khachaturian, 20/1 Boychuk
20/1 Faasel, 20/1 Heathcliff, 20/1 Kia Kaha, 20/1 Lysander
25/1 Buck The Legend, 25/1 Hello Bud, 25/1 Ma Yahab
25/1 Saphir Des Bois, 25/1 Zitenka, 40/1 Oodachee
50/1 Burren Legend, 50/1 Freds Benefit, 50/1 Mr Robert
50/1 Parsons Legacy.

* The Kim Muir is a 25f Handicap Chase for Amateurs
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992

* BURREN LEGEND surely wont win absent 523 days
* MR ROBERT has been off too long for an exposed horse
* He has too much weight for an exposed horse as well
* PARSONS LEGACY wont be fit enough
* FREDS BENEFIT has a horrible profile
* I couldnt bet an exposed horse from a 2m race
* FAASEL has a weak profile
* No exposed horse had under 4 runs this season
* ZITENKA probably isnt good enough
* Nothing too much wrong with his profile
* I cant match him to any past winners though
* I suspect he will find this too warm
* I would have to worry about the track as well

* Horses aged 11 or more are 0-57 in this race
* Cheltenham have had 70 handicap chases
* Thats 70 races at the Festival at any distance
* No 11 year old won with over a Months absence
* They had a 0-88 record and its a poor profile
* LYSANDER fails that and has been absent 76 days
* OODACHEE also fails that and other stats
* HELLO BUD is a 12yo and looks too old for this
* No exposed horse like him won any festival handicap
* The only older horses like him had form in Grade 1 or 2
* No horse his age won any festival race like him
* Not when so well beaten last time
* Not when lacking Grade 1-2 form

* MA YAJAB has just 2 runs this season
* Horses with under 4 runs this season struggled in this
* Exposed types like him were 0-42
* Cheltenham have had 70 handicap chases
* Thats 70 races at the Festival at any distance
* I looked for exposed horses with 1-2 runs that year
* There were 3 winners but they all had 1 thing in common
* They all had form in a Grade 1 race
* No exposed horse that hadnt got Grade 1 form won
* Not with just 1-2 runs that season
* That tells me MA YAJAB wont win

* I´MONCLOUDNINE is a 7 year old
* There were 2 winning 7 year olds
* Neither were absent over a month like him
* Neither came from 3m or shorter like him
* Horses aged 7 only have a 2-52 record
* None had his weight but that doesnt bother me
* I´MONCLOUDNINE isnt like any past winner
* Cheltenham have had 70 handicap chases
* Thats 70 races at the Festival at any distance
* I looked at the record or all 7 year olds
* Those without Graded Form before struggled
* Those with 9 + runs like him won just 1 race
* That winner had a much recent run
* I´MONCLOUDNINE has questions to answer

* GALANT NUIT is 6 years old
* Horses aged 6 are 0-17 in this race since 1992
* The last 6 year old winner was in 1971
* GALANT NUIT  fails a big generic statistic
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* There were 5 winners aged 6 in these races
* None had under 4 runs that season
* None won when absent over a month
* GALANT NUIT fails both those trends
* He has been absent 124 days
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* I looked at horses like GALLANT NUIT
* Absent more than 3 months
* No form in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* Horses with that profile struggled
* Those with 13 + runs were 0-41
* This tells me he will struggle to win
* GALLANT NUIT is a negative

* SAPHIR DES BOIS is also a 6yo
* We know they are 0-17 in this race
* SAPHIR DES BOIS also steps up from 2m 4f
* There are 32 festival handicaps at 3m since 1993
* Thats 16 renewals of this race
* And 16 renewals of the William Hill Trophy
* Only 1 winner came from a 2m 4f race
* He was much older and had much less weight
* SAPHIR DES BOIS could struggle aged 6 from 2m 4f
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled anyway
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals

* ISN´T THAT LUCKY has been absent 110 days
* He has only had 2 runs this season
* His trainer says he will either win or come last
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* I looked at horses with 1-2 runs this season
* When they had absences of 7 weeks or more
* When they had 9 + runs this season
* No winner aged 6-7-8 had that profile in the 70 races
* ISN´T THAT LUCKY isnt like any Festival winner
* We know 7 year olds dont score well in this anyway
* Both 7yo winners had 5 + runs this season
* Both ran within a month as well
* He also has to come from a 2m 4f race
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* ISN´T THAT LUCKY doesnt come out well

* NOSTRINGSATTACHED has been absent 202 days
* He fails my Generic Cheltenham statistic
* Cheltenham has had 132 Handicaps since 1993
* Thats 132 Handicaps at any distance – hurdle or chase
* Thats every handicap run at the festival in 17 years
* I looked at horses that were absent 80 + days
* I then look at those with 13 + runs
* 8 winners won with 13 + runs and 80 + days off
* The 8 winners all had 1 think in common
* They had all ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* That tells me he shouldnt defy his absence
* Especially with quite a tough weight

* FINGER ONTHE PULSE has just 2 runs this year
* He also has a 110 day absence
* That worries me for an exposed horse
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* Only 1 exposed horse won with 1-2 runs that year
* And with an absence like that
* That was Joes Edge in the 2007 William Hill Trophy
* He carries 17lbs more weight than Joes Edge did
* FINGER ONTHE PULSE has other issues
* He comes from 2m 4f
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* Only 2 past winners carried more weight
* Both were unexposed and had 4-5 runs that year
* No exposed horse won carrying more than 11st
* He is a course winner and they have poor records
* FINGER ONTHE PULSE fails too many angles for me

* FALTERING FULLBACK comes from a Novice race
* Horses doing that in this race were 0-40
* He also comes from 2m 4f or shorter
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* FALTERING FULLBACK doesnt look right

* KHACHATURIAN is a 7yo
* There were 2 winners that age win this race
* Both ran within a month
* He has been absent 41 days but thats forgiveable
* Those aged 7 from 3m 1f or shorter were 0-39
* He comes from a 2m 5f race
* Thats a little harder to forgive
* Both 7 year old winners also had at least 10lbs less weight
* Horses in this race from a Novice race were 0-40
* KHACHATURIAN fails that as well
* We know horses from 2m 6f or less are 1-68 as well
* KHACHATURIAN also has that against him
* Most of his wins come on sharp tracks as well
* His 3 runs at Cheltenham were all poor runs
* We know no exposed winner had 11st or more
* Overall not a very impressive profile

* KIA KAHA comes from 2m 5f
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* He is a course winner as well
* Course winners have a weak 1-81 record in 16 years
* These are the only 2 statistical problems
* I dont like his profile but others fail a lot more
* His jumping though just doesnt look good enough
* Its gone to pot lately and I couldnt trust him

* HEATHCLIFF comes out a lot better than most
* Doesnt mean he has a strong profile though
* HEATHCLIFF does have much backclass
* I looked at horses like him with no Graded form
* Those with 13 + career runs won 5 races
* Only 1 was aged under 9 years old though
* He ran far better last time and had more prep runs
* He also looks light on experience with 4 Chase runs
* There was 1 past winner with 4 runs (Honey Mount)
* Funnily enough he comes from the same Ludlow race
* That said Honey Mount won the Ludlow race
* HEATHCLIFF ran badly and nearly refused to race
* I think that makes him too riSky

* BUCK THE LEGEND is shaky
* He may have a better chance than it looks
* He comes from a 2m 5f race
* We know horses 2m 6f or shorter were just 1-68
* Exposed horses from 3m or shorter last time were 1-74
* He has more weight than any exposed winner
* He isnt like any past winner and is Shaky
* I think he is well handicapped though
* Perhaps I wanted him to be stronger statistically
* Certainly has some Jumping issues as well
* Overall I cant make a strong enough case for him
* His inexperienced jockey also worries me

* BALLABRIGGS comes here with a W W record
* He has to carry Topweight in this race
* There has been 1 winner in the last 16 renewals
* That had a 11st 3lbs or more with no Graded Class
* I looked at all 70 Handicap Chases at the festival
* Thats every Handicap Chase at any distance
* I looked at horses with 11st 8lbs or more
* There were 5 winners with that weight
* All 5 had Graded Class and he doesnt
* BALLABRIGGS doesnt look great with that in mind
* He is on a roll and I would respect him
* It’s a tough task though and his mark is high
* Throw in the fact he is unproven here
* I think its a lot to ask but I cant rule him out

S E L E C T I O N

* BOYCHUK has been absent 96 days
* Royal Predica won this in 2003 with a longer break
* He was also exposed with Graded Form
* That gives hope to BOYCHUK
* That said In 70 festival handicap chases
* Thats 70 handicap chases at every distance
* Only 1 exposed horse had that absence/weight
* That leaves him looking Shaky
* He is a Course winner which hasnt been helpful
* He has won Fresh and I think he is shortlistable
* His Grade 1 form cuts him lots of slack
* He doesnt have the strong profile I would like
* BOYCHUK would be a saver for me

SHILLINGSTONE

* SHILLINGSTONE has the 1 profile I like
* He is far from statistically safe
* I have only found 1 past winner like him
* Part of his attraction is strong angles against others
* He only has 6 Chase starts
* I looked at Horses with his profile
* Horses aged 8
* Coming from a Handicap
* No Form in Class 2 races or better
* Under 7 Career runs
* Only 1 horse in  16 renewals had that profile
* That Was Bushkeeper who won in 2005
* All that does is tell me he is fine statistically
* He has 6 Chase starts but lighter raced chasers have won
* There has been recent winners with 4 and 5 chase starts
* He comes from the same Sandown race as the 1995 winner
* The Alners have had 3 runners in this race
* They finished W W 4
* SHILLINGSTONE won many point to points
* He won a Hunter Chase for the Alners Daughter
* This season he switched to the Robert and Sally Alner
* He won his first 2 races when looking well treated
* He then raced just once more last time at Sandown
* He was a little bit dissapointing in 6th place
* Heavy Ground hurt his chance with an 83 day break
* I think he had a good excuse that day
* I think he ran with this race in mind anyway
* Well backed when the weights came out
* He was always laid out for this race
* I think there are massive holes in his opposition
* SHILLINGSTONE looks the likely winner

****************************************************

Posted under Major Horse Races

CHELTENHAM 12:30 – PETER O’SULLEVAN NATIONAL HUNT CHASE (AMATEURS) (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 4m

4/1 Ornais, 5/1 Over The Creek, 8/1 Back On Line, 9/1 Beantown, 12/1 Old Benny, Sandhurst, 14/1 Here´s Johnny, Ice Tea, 16/1 Leading Authority, 20/1 Menchikov, Niche Market, Oulart, 25/1 In Accord, RimSky, Sherwoods Folly, Sizing Australia, 40/1 Millards Lad, Pass It On, 50/1 Dreux, The King Of Angels.

SELECTION – OLD BENNY

* This is a 4m Novice Chase – the old National Hunt Chase
* The last 3 winners were 33/1 33/1 and 40/1 + a 25/1 as well 5 years ago
* OULART and DREUX look too exposed to be winning
* No horse like OULART had more than 15 Chase starts
* I dont want to bet any horse that ran within 14 days (1-61 record)
* IN ACCORD and OULART fail that
* Do not bet horses that ran with a 7 week or more absence
* Only the 1998 winner who was different class won this with an absence
* SIZING AUSTRALIA fails that
* You want at least 3 career starts – All winners since 1993 could say that
* SANDHURST fails that and has less experience than every other runner
* That Said I want to keep SANDHURST on my side as he is “Interesting”
* You want at least 4 runs that season
* The only time in 15 years the winner ran fewer than 4 times was in 1998
* Wandering Light ran just twice that year. He was different class that year
* The last 16 winners had the following races in the season they won
* They had 7-4-4-4-5-8-5-6-2-7-7-6-5-10-4-4 previous races that season
* OULART fails that
* BEANTOWN has ran just twice this season but again I want to keep him on side
* MENCHIKOV has ran just once this year and he is out
* PASS IT ON has ran just 3 times but will be respected for connections
* ORNAIS has had only 3 runs and is a 6 year old
* Horses aged 6 have a 0-43 record since 1989.
* This race looks too tough for them
* ORNAIS – THE KING OF ANGELS – DREUX are 6 year olds
* So to are SHERWOODS FOLLY – SIZING AUSTRALIA
* I want to oppose ORNAIS as a 6 year old and just 3 runs that year
* His worst two runs came at this track and he may be more of an Aintree horse
* His trainer has raised doubts about the Track as well
* OVER THE CREEK was 4th last time in the Reynoldstown beaten 27 lengths
* OVER THE CREEK is reasonably sound statistically despite being a 9 year old
* They dont score that well but they can win
* My objection to OVER THE CREEK is the same as it was for the Reynoldstown
* I hated the fact he came from the Welsh National
* He was 3rd in a hard race for the Welsh National and that may have knocked him back
* He had nothing to offer last time out and I would be wary about that
* Has he left his season behind at Chepstow would be my main worry
* Thats no more than a hunch but I opposed him correctly last time for the same reason.
* NICHE MARKET has two poor runs to put behind him
* Would be worried about his last 2 runs and he isnt from a stable with a festival pedigree
* LEADING AUTHORITY has form closely tied up and has a similar weak chance
* HERES JOHNNY has to put his last run behind him when jumping badly
* 22 of the last 24 winners had a 1-2-3-4 place last time out
* MILLARDS LAD has an outsiders chance much as he isnt the best age
* I cant fault ICE TEA statistically other than failing to place last time
* He isnt totally out of this but he will need a career best

SHORTLIST

BACK ON LINE -BEANTOWN -OLD BENNY -RIMSky -SANDHURST

Since 2002 the race conditions have changed. If we take the last 6 winners you will see that all winners came from 25f or shorter. There were no horses that ran over 3m 2f or more last time. That suggests to me these horses are slower and although they look better bets as they have less stamina to find they really are not as they lack the class of the speedier horses. Its almost the same as why 2 milers on the Flat do not win the St Leger despite being the proven stayers. In the last 3 renewals there were 21 horses that ran at 3m 2f or more on their last run and only 1 of these managed to scrape a place. I am going to follow this in this race and that means ignoring he horses that ran at beyond 25f last time out. These include BACK ON LINE and RIMSKI

* BACK ON LINE had an otherwise excellent profile in my view
* She is a Mare – and comes from a handicap but I am ok with that
* Loving Around (1996) was a Mare that won this from a handicap
* As she ran at over 25f last time I take her on
* She may also need softer ground
* RIMSky was placed in the Eider Chase last time out
* So to was the 1993 winner (Ushers Island)
* RIMSky loves soft ground and I wonder if it will be soft enough
* I reject RIMSky as he ran at 4m last time

This leaves 3

BEANTOWN -OLD BENNY -RIMSky -SANDHURST

I feel I have to give massive respect to SANDHURST but have to overlook him down to his lack of experience. SANDHURST has inexperience to worry about and thats a big problem. He looks a very interesting prospect and is clearly laid out for this and he looks a horse that has a lot of ability and I wouldnt put it past him to sicken me by winning but he is very inexperienced and has only ran in 1 completed chase as he fell at the last on his second run. BEANTOWN is interesting. He was second in this race in 2006 at 40/1 and that was an excellent run for such an inexperienced horse. Injury has held him back since but he won well last time and looks a big runner and he’s been Laid out for the race. What I dont like about him is the fact he is a 10 year old – and has just 2 runs this season.

OLD BENNY is therefore my choice and I am more than happy with him. He is held on form by Ornais last time out but this is a completely different test over a Mile more and I feel that suits me far more and I dont see any reason why this track should be a problem. That risk is factored into his price.

Posted under Major Horse Races