Full members got a nice winner yesterday at about 20 /1 early odds.

On the free blog this Saturday I am posting up a much shorter odds selection.

Best profile today I feel is RUSSIAN GEORGE at Market Rasen
in the Novice Hurdle at 4.10pm but he is a shortish
price and does not get the juices flowing because of
that. If I wanted to play it very safe I would go with
him in a safe each way double but I think he will win

MARKET RASEN 4.10

B Eyre & Son Ltd Ford Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 2m1f

11/10 Russian George, 11/8 Sir Frank, 9/1 Society Venue
16/1 Not A Bob, 16/1 Royal Entourage, 25/1 Play To Win
28/1 Carrifran, 50/1 Loyal Knight, 66/1 Sound Of Silver.

This is a 17f Novice Hurdle. I think it is probably a two
horse race. I think SIR FRANK will take some stopping
but the better profile comes from RUSSIAN GEORGE a
4 year old that won last time out and very lightly raced.

* I looked at all Novice’s around this trip at this time of year
* Horses aged 4
* Winning a Novice Hurdle last time out over 2 miles
* Between 1 and 2 Career starts
* No form in higher than a Class 3 race before
* There were 15 horses that had that profile
* 10 of the 15 horses won and they finished in these places
* W W 2 W W 2 W 4 W W 2 W W 3 W
* RUSSIAN GEORGE is the selection

6/5 Paddy Power bet365 Betfair

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips

Clearly the big issue today is the rain that is falling everywhere.
We might see ground changes at many tracks but that’s not
certain to happen and it does make it impossible to approach
the day as confident as I would like.
The Conditions are against us with this rain.
If I were to have an account bet today I couldn’t answer
the obvious question of whether the ground is right so
decided to have a No Account Bet Saturday because of this.

By tomorrow we will know the Newmarket ground better
and the draw advantage so Sunday may be the time for a
bet there.

Despite the above I know many of you will want to have an interest today.
Here is one to consider if so.

HAYDOCK 3.00

EBF Joan Westbrook Pinnacle Stakes (Listed Race)
(Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m3f200y

11/4 Barshiba, 9/2 Becqu Adoree, 5/1 Les Fazzani
5/1 Polly´s Mark, 11/2 Rosika, 7/1 Flame Of Gibraltar
20/1 Three Moons, 25/1 Cassique Lady
33/1 Victoria Montoya, 40/1 All Annalena.

Never done this race before. It’s a Listed Class race for
fillies just short of 12 furlongs. There are just 7 renewals
of this race and no identical races elsewhere.
This race has always been won by a 4 year old.
They have won all 7 renewals so I would be wary of older horses.
That puts me off CASSIQUE LADY-VICTORIA MONTOYA -
BARSHIBA – LES FAZZANI.
We know this is a strong race for seasonal debutants.
If you look at horses who have run this season in the past 7
years you find  none  of then had more than 13 starts.
That is another pointer against the horses above.
ALL ANNALENA did not do enough last time.
THREE MOONS has to go with 1 run this year and up in distance.
POLLYS MARK has some chance but I want a debutant.

The ideal profile is this -

* 4 year old
* Seasonal debutant
* At least 3 career starts
* Running over 10f-13f last time
* At least 2 career wins
* There were 4 horses with that profile
* These 4 horses finished W W W W
* They won in 2009 2007 2005 2003

* BECQU ADOREE comes out well
* FLAME OF GIBRALTA is close to making that
* She just lacks a second win
* Dont rule her out though
* The 2007 winner came from the same trial race as her
* ROSIKA also comes from that same trial race
* ROSIKA is statistically perfect

The problem you have is ROSIKA wont be proven on
the ground if it changes as expected. The rain brings
POLLY’S MARK more into it. Given all the options I’d
still be happier with an unraced 4 year old so given that
BECQU ADOREE has form on the ground I will go with
her. BECQU ADOREE is the selection.

Posted under horse racing tips

victor chandler recently announced a very good deal.

Especially useful if you don’t have access to the net easily each day.

Here is their price pledge.

———————————————————————————–

We will be best price on every horse at every UK race meeting everyday!

Applies to internet & phone bets from 10am.

Applies to UK mainland race meetings only. Best price or joint best price will be matched from the following list of Bookmakers – Ladbrokes, William Hill, bet 365, Coral, Paddy Power, Tote & betfred only.

Best Odds Guaranteed still applies.

Ante-post prices do not apply.

———————————————————————————–

NB £100 in free bets from victor chandler as well for new accounts.

Posted under Main Content

Just a small Extract from our Saturday message from today.

Nb There is a proper account bet for full members of mathematician-betting.co.uk in the 3.35 at Haydock

ASCOT 4:50 – MILES & MORRISON OCTOBER STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 7f

7/2 Majestic Roi, 8/1 Crystany, Ethaara, Francesca D´Gorgio, Illusion, Salsa Steps, Spinning Lucy, 10/1 Meydan Princess, 12/1 Kylayne, Medicea Sidera,
25/1 Ghostmilk, Steam Cuisine, 33/1 Candle Sahara, Monaazalah, Vital Statistics, 66/1 Indian Diva.

* The October Stakes is a fillies Listed race over 7f
* There has only been 7 renewals of this race
* There has been 20 other Listed races for fillies at this time of year
* The 7 winners had 8-5-8-3-7-5-9 previous races
* It does look a race for lightly raced 3 year olds
* Horses with 10 + runs had a 0-47 record
* Horses aged 4 or more had a 0-27 record
* If you look at the 20 Listed races at this time of year
* Only 2 had as much as 13 or more career starts
* Horses aged 3 or 4 with 13 + runs were 0-39
* This leads me to take out all the exposed horses
* MAJESTIC ROI may be vulnerable aged 4 with 15 runs
* She is the best horse on ratings but she isn’t for me
* She is not typical of any previous winner of this race
* GHOSTMILK -KYLAYNE- MEDICEA SIDERA look exposed
* So to does STEAM CUISINE and VITAL STATISTICS
* I would take out the 4 year olds as they havent won this yet
* All winners of this race had at least 4 runs this season
* In 20 other races horses that had 1-2 runs that year struggled
* No horse managed it with 5 or more career runs (0-30)
* Francesca D´Gorgio fails that
* Horses that came from 7f races with 9 + runs were 0-41
* Spinning Lucy – Candle Sahara both fail that
* I think there are 4 runners with strong profiles
* ETHAARA – ILLUSION – MEYDAN PRINCESS – CRYSTANY
* I like ETHAARA – ILLUSION best of these
* ILLUSION has a very similar profile to 2006 winner Makderah
* She comes from the same race and was badly hampered in that race
* Her trainer has won this race before and at an estimated 14/1 she’s my choice

**blog comment: currently trading a  bit shorter than the Racing Post estimated 14/1.

13.5/1 Betfair being the best current price ***

Posted under horse racing tips