I do like GALA CASINO STAR. I see a heavy draw bias. This
is a horse who has been out of form on sand. He is not a
sand horse though. He was badly hampered in Ireland at
Dundalk last time. Now He’s back on Grass and very well
treated he looks fitter than anything here and laid out to
take this race for Richard Fahey. He looks one that will
either winning easily or running badly but at 7/1 I Feel he
should be backed much as its a difficult race to win.

DONCASTER 5.55

Universalrecyclingcompany.co.uk Apprentice Handicap
(CLASS 5)(4yo+ 0-70) 1m2f60y

11/2 Zaplamation, 6/1 Sharp Sovereign, 9/1 Blue Spinnaker
10/1 Rosbay, 12/1 King´s Counsel, 12/1 Law To Himself
14/1 Sharakti, 14/1 Swiftly Done, 14/1 Zafranagar
16/1 Frontline Phantom, 16/1 Hong Kong Island, 16/1 Koo
And The Gang, 16/1 Scarab, 20/1 Gala Casino Star, 20/1 Sail Home
25/1 General Tufto, 25/1 Star Addition, 33/1 Dragon Slayer
33/1 Easy Terms, 33/1 Red Skipper.

This race looks too difficult especially as it has always been a 12f race and this
year its switched to being a 10f race and that means there are zero past renewals.
I ought to mention  the draw which favours low Numbers.
At 4.50pm and 5.20pm there are handicaps over this distance which should show
how high numbers struggle.

Consider this.

* Since 2005 there are 31 Handicaps over this Course+Distance
* Thats 31 Handicaps with 10 or more runners in them
* Horses drawn 13 or more have a 1-104 record
* That sole winner (Timetable) was slightly unusual
* It was a 3yo Handicap and they raced up the middle of the track
* Because of the Draw I would avoid the following horses
* SHARAKTI – STAR ADDITION -ZAPLAMATION
* RED SKIPPER -SAIL HOME -BLUE SPINNAKER
* ROSBAY -   SHARP SOVEREIGN

I like GALA CASINO STAR. He was given a warm up
race in Ireland last week. Very badly impeded and I felt
he was there only for a warm up anyway. He was badly
blocked in for a furlong and ended the race on the bridle.
This time last year he started the season rated 88 yet is
only rated 69 this year.

GALA CASINO STAR 7/1 around earlier but now best priced 13/2 at betfred Tote Sky

****************************************************
****************************************************

Posted under horse racing tips

No firm bets today but if you want a bit of interest consider …

CATTERICK 1.40

Bet On Today´s Football At Totesport.com
Apprentice Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6) (3yo+) 1m3f214y

5/2 Drum Dragon, 7/2 Lost Soldier Three, 4/1 Boundless Prospect, 8/1 Bajan Parkes, 10/1 Moggy, 16/1 Bigalo´s Star, 25/1 Another Decree, 25/1 Dream In Blue, 33/1 Aven Mac,  33/1 Boy Dancer, 33/1 Cecina Marina, Grethel,

SELECTION

* Win bet on MOGGY 10/1 + (  11/1 Skybet and sportingbet )
* Lay her back in running at 3/1

This is a Claimer over just short of 12f for Apprentice
riders. Catterick has 12 renewals of this race and there
are 53 similar races for all jockeys. You want at least 5
runs this season. I see BIGALO´S STAR as underraced
this year.  Horses absent over 7 weeks have struggled.
They were 1-51 in this race. In the 53 similar races all
horses absent 7 weeks or more were 1-118 since 1998
so DREAM IN BLUE and BOY DANCER have to go.

Horses from Maidens like AVEN MAC are poor. I do
not want CECINA MARINA a filly with a 0-22 career
record. She is an exposed mare and these types have a
poor 1-39 record something GRETHEL also fails. I’d
be against ANOTHER DECREE as a male horse thats
up in distance 3 furlongs. Horses that came up from 10f
races without a run within 2 weeks had a 3-150 record.
Thats poor and BOUNDLESS PROSPECT’s got that
against him and its asking a lot for a 10 year old to win
coming from 10f. He has only run once  since March
and thats not a lot for a 10 year old. I see him failing
this test. DRUM DRAGON is a 3yo filly coming from
a 3yo handicap and in all 53 similar races these types
were 0-17. That has to be a worry. I dont want to trust
BAJAN PARKES after being beaten 53 lengths only 7
days ago. If you look at horses that lost by 10 or more
lengths in the last fortnight you find a horrible record
and those like BAJAN PARKES that came from 14f or
shorter were 1-115. It was only non stayers at 2 miles
that got well beaten dropping in trip that overcame it
and with a 1-115 record BAJAN PARKES doesnt look
like a horse I could bet. Its quite interesting that it only a quarter of a length stops LOST SOLDIER THREE
from failing the same statistic. He ran in the same race
as BAJAN PARKES and despite not beaten 10 + lengths
he was beaten 9.75 lengths and there has to be a doubt
about whether he did enough and he does look quite a
regressive 8 year old.

SELECTION

I quite like MOGGY the 3 year old filly. There has been
2 recent 3yo fillies winning this race. I would have been
happier with a very recent run but MOGGY is as good as
anything on her profile. She will probably try and make
the runningand steal the race from the front. There is a
stamina doubt here so she may be vulnerable later on. I
see her as a Win bet at 12/1 and lay her back in running
about 3/1 as she will probably have Lost Soldier Three
and Drum Dragon trying to mow her down. I would much
rather bet him big and lay her in running than any other
way and I dont think its impossible she can win this. In
all similar races 3yo fillies coming from 10f sellers had
a 2-7 record and that included the 2006 winner of this.

* Win bet on MOGGY 10/1 +
* Lay her back in running at 3/1

Posted under horse racing tips