Moet & Chandon International Stakes Handicap

This is one race Guy has been looking at over the past few days
in his Future Betting Angles sub section for Full Members.

These are his comments as made over the past few days.
The time line of things may be semi typical here.
Note how certain aspects such as research into many years
history of the race ( or perhaps of races of similar characteristic )
can be researched early on.

Other things are best left to later on.
Final declarations and draw for example
are usually only known shortly before race day.

This race below Guy has brought up to provisional selection stage.
More often than not final selections or advised bets if any
will be made on race day morning. It did not happen in this race
but sometimes the early work will highlight something stand out enough
to merit the extra risk associated with an ante post bet.
Morning of race however is much more so par for the course
for betting decissions.

For those of you with an interest in assessing your own races
perhaps one take away concept may be the idea of trying to get
ahead of the curve advance research wise.

Major races with long term history are a bit easier for this.
But bread and butter daily racing as well the core thinking can be applied to.
eg Research Thursday racing on Wednesday.
Final touches and bets if any then on Thursday morning.
After than you start to prepare for Friday racing etc.

Such “Be Prepared” thinking is hardly rocket science style theory.
Is it not sort of obvious that a punter with homework done
before race day will have a bit of edge over the punter
who tries to cram all research and thinking into a short period of pressured time?

Fingers crossed at least one reader will have a lightbulb flash above their head
and change their old ways for a new improved way.

 

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From message of Wed 24th July

Saturday Ascot 3.00

Moet & Chandon International Stakes Handicap

10/1 Kynren 10/1 Ripp Orf 10/1 Land of Legends
12/1 Mubhij 12/1 Spanish City 12/1 Raising Sand
16/1 Flaming Spear 16/1 Makzeem 16/1 Fanaar
20/1 Burnt Sugar 16/1 Vale of Kent 16/1 Blue Mist
16/1 Librisa Breeze 20/1 Lush Life 20/1 Firmament
20/1 Kaeso 20/1 Admirality 20/1 Diocles of Rome
20/1 Raydiance 20/1 Hey Jonesy 25/1 Maries Diamond
25/1 Arbalet 25/1 Cold Stare 25/1 Summerghand
25/1 Kimifive 25/1 Wise Counsel 25/1 Blown By Wind
25/1 Alemaratalyoum 25/1 Island of Life 25/1 Lake Volta
33/1 Documenting 33/1 Hajjam 33/1 Another Batt
33/1 Aces 33/1 Good Effort 33/1 Intisaab 33/1 Jacks Point
33/1 Love Dreams 33/1 Presidential 33/1Straight Right
33/1 Zhui Feng 40/1 Reputation 40/1Tommy Taylor
40/1 Shady McCoy 50/1 Larchmont Lad 50/1 Zap
50/1 Whinmoor 50/1 Markazi 50/1 Larchmont Lad
66/1 Reeves

Top class 7f handicap

Last previewed this race in 2014
My statistics since strengthened
Enough angles to cover this race

Age

Horses aged 6 or more
Have a horrible 1-124 record
The only winner was last year
A horse in red hot form
Who won the best trial race

Horses aged 3 struggled
They have a 1-47 record since 2000
All 28 have failed since then

Weight

Horses with 9st 3lbs or more
Have a worrying 1-61 record
Only 2008 winner had a big weight

Absence

Longest absent winner 38 days
Those absent longer were 0-46
Longer than 6 weeks a problem

The last 10 renewals since 2009
9 of them ran within 3 weeks
Horses absent longer were 1-98

Jockeys

5lbs- 7lbs Claiming jockeys
Have a 0-35 record in the race

Recent runs

Horses with under 3 runs
In the previous 12 weeks
Have a 1-73 record since 2003
Those with 9 or more runs 0-49

Previous race

Horses from Listed or Group races
Have a 0-53 record since 2001
No horse won from Class 4 or lower

Horses coming from 6f of shorter
Have a 1-71 record since 2003

Best trial race the Bunbury Cup
6 past winners came from there
Including 3 of the last 4 winners
No horse won after a heavy defeat
Those beaten over 15 lengths 0-27

Ideal Profile

Male horse
Aged 4 of 5
Running within 6 weeks
Coming from 7f or 8f
9st 2lbs or less
Not ridden by 5lbs-7lbs claimer
At least 3 runs since late April
If the horse has 9 or more runs
Coming from Class 2-3 races
Not beaten more than 15 lengths
Consider it an added bonus
If coming from the Bunbury Cup

Will be coming back to this race

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From message of Thur 25th July

Saturday Ascot 3.00

Moet & Chandon International Stakes Handicap

Sent some statistics yesterday

Betfair have no market on the race

ARBALET was backed yesterday
Because he was tipped in the Press
Fails my angles from a Listed race
Horses from Pattern races
Have a 0-53 record since 2001

Class 2 Handicaps in July
Run over any and every distance
Horses aged 4
With 10 or more career starts
Coming from a pattern race
Have a 0-51 record since 2001
ARBALET fails this as well

KYNREN is a consistent sort
Not running in the Bunbury Cup
Could hurt his chance in this race
He has raced just once in 77 days
Past winners had 3 runs in that time

LAND OF LEGENDS is a 3yo
This age group are 1-47 since 2000
WISE COUNSEL has the same problem
FANAAR also has the same problem

RASING SAND is a 7 year old
In a race horses older than 5 struggle
FLAMING SPEAR fails age statistics
Not to mention his serious absence

SPANISH CITY is older than ideal
Career best win came off a rating of 88
Today whilst his rating of 96 is tough
His numbers suggest he can win off that
He also comes from the best trial race
But he will require a career best to win

MAKZEEM is older than almost all winners
But a recent win last Saturday could help
If he wins that could be the reason why
But 3 career best runs were on good-soft

Ideal Profile

Male horse
Aged 4 of 5
Running within 6 weeks
Coming from 7f or 8f
9st 2lbs or less
Not ridden by 5lbs-7lbs claimer
At least 3 runs since late April
If the horse has 9 or more runs
Coming from Class 2-3 races
Not beaten more than 15 lengths
Consider it an added bonus
If coming from the Bunbury Cup

Applying my statistics

The following horses pass them

10/1 Ripp Orf – 12/1 Mubhij – 16/1 Vale of Kent
20/1 Lush Life – 20/1 Kaeso – 20/1 Diocles of Rome
20/1 Raydiance – 25/1 Kimifive – 25/1 Alemaratalyoum
33/1 Hajjam – 33/1 Love Dreams – 40/1Tommy Taylor
50/1 Zap – 50/1 Larchmont Lad

Not all of these will run
Some of the outsiders won’t get in

Also need to wait for the Draw

Recent renewals
Show the 1st 2nd 3rd home
Had the following draws

2018 – 11 18 16
2017 – 14 26 17 (G-Soft)
2016 – 14 22 2
2015 – 2 18 6 (Soft)
2014 – 15 3 19
2013 – 29 10 5
2012 – 22 18 23
2011 – 24 17 19 (G-Soft)

Draw is not easy to read
I’d be wary about very low numbers

Also worth bearing in mind
The best trial race for this
The Bunbury Cup at Newmarket

The shortlisted horses
Coming from this race are these

RIPP ORF
VALE OF KENT
ALEMARATALYOUM
HAJJAM
ZAP

To be concluded
Once more evidence is known
Draw and Declarations out today

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From message of Friday 26th July

Saturday Ascot 3.00

Moet & Chandon International Stakes Handicap

Ripp Orf 8/1 Arbalet 10/1 Vale Of Kent 10/1
Land Of Legends 11/1 Raising Sand 12/1 Spanish City 12/1
Lake Volta 16/1 Mubhij 16/1 Blue Mist 16/1 Kaeso 16/1
Makzeem 18/1 Hey Jonesy 20/1 Burnt Sugar 20/1
Lush Life 20/1 Fanaar 20/1 Diocles Of Rome 20/1 Admirality 22/1
Firmament 25/1 Good Effort 25/1 Island Of Life 25/1
Intisaab 33/1 Another Batt 33/1 Documenting 33/1
Alemaratalyoum 33/1 Kimifive 33/1 Summerghand 40/1
Reputation 40/1 Zap 40/1 Larchmont Lad 66/1

Declarations are through

29 horses run

KYNREN has not been declared
WISE COUNSEL has missed out

MAKZEEM is running
Was not overkeen on his draw in 3
Has a weight outside the ideal range

HEY JONESY has drawn stall 28
RIPP ORF the favourite stall 26
Neither draw guaranteed to help

VALE OF KENT has 9st 5lbs
Thats a bit higher than the ideal

The draw is quite complicated
Would not be confident about it

Ideal profile

Male horse
Aged 4 of 5
Running within 6 weeks
Coming from 7f or 8f
9st 2lbs or less
Not ridden by 5lbs-7lbs claimer
At least 3 runs since late April
If the horse has 9 or more runs
Coming from Class 2-3 races
Not beaten more than 15 lengths
Consider it an added bonus
If coming from the Bunbury Cup

Horses now passing my angles

10/1 Ripp Orf
12/1 Mubhij
20/1 Lush Life
20/1 Kaeso
20/1 Diocles of Rome
25/1 Kimifive
25/1 Alemaratalyoum
50/1 Zap

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Posted under Major Horse Races

Ascot 3.45

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-09-08/ascot/15-45/betting/

* This is a 7f Handicap in Class 2
* Looked at all similar races at this time of year
* IMPERIAL GUEST won last time out
* All the winners that won having done that were younger
* No 6yo followed up a win so not convinced
* I looked at 3 year olds in these races
* Those that had Group Class form were 0-59
* ARNOLD LANE fails that
* BANNOCK also fails that
* CASTLES IN THE AIR I see as underraced this year
* EXCELLENT GUEST is also technically underraced as well
* Both of those exposed types would be better with 1-2 more runs
* Horses from Listed races had a 0-43 record
* SIRIUS PROSPECT fails that and has plenty to prove
* SMARTY SOCKS also fails that and is an 8yo
* Horses aged 8 or more struggle in these races
* SMARTY SOCKS did win this with more weight last year
* Because of that I would see him as more positive than negative
* PRIMAEVAL is risky with a 78 day absence
* No horses with 13 + career starts won absent 7 + weeks
* GLOBAL VILLAGE also fails that
* FIELD OF DREAM – I’d like more recent encouragement
* BERTIEWHITTLE looks the one to me
* I looked at exposed 4 year olds
* Coming from a 7f Handicap
* Form in Class 2 before
* Running within 2 weeks
* Beaten under 3 lengths last time
* Similar horses had a 2-7 record in these races
* That included the 2002 winner of this race

Selection

BERTIEWHITTLE Each Way at 9/1
bet365 – victor chandler – william hill – betfred

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

No joy last week on the free blog with Wotova only placing.
He did run again yesterday however and I pointed full members to him.
This time he won at a decent price.
It happens often when you can spot a horse in the zone of winning
that he may not please you first run but the following time out.

Last week I mentioned the firm bet was full member only.
That did very well for them.
Structured as two win bets and an each way double on
Ascot 1.45 – SHOW FLOWER 3/1
Nottingham 2.00 – DISPOL GRAND 7/2

Both horses won landing a good profit.

We had another good day on Friday with a 10/1 firm bet winner.

The full member service is in great form with profit on turnover on my firm tips
running at a level of about 40% for the past 8 months or so of current message format.

Today for full members I have covered 15 races spread between
the three main meetings at Newmarket, Newbury and Thirsk.
It’s quite a typical Saturday with some taxing handicaps and lots
of pitfalls on quality tracks with very few favours given.

I do have a firm full member bet in the 4.15
Join at link below for instant access
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

For the free blog tip today I am again posting up one of the additional races I have examined.

N e w b u r y 3.05

11/4 Thomas Chippendale, 9/2 Hajras, 8/1 Expense Claim
8/1 Rewarded, 10/1 Almuftarris, Icelander, 14/1 Clayton
14/1 Poetic Lord, 14/1 Trader Jack, 16/1 Al Saham
16/1 Hurricane In Dubai, 33/1 Humungosaur
33/1 Tidal Way, 50/1 Mcvicar.

* This is a 3yo Handicap over 10f
* Recent evidence suggests avoid the very low draws
* Since 2011 there were 15 handicaps with 9 runners
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4 had a 1-57 record
* The winners came from the following stalls
* 8 5 14 8 6 5 2 5 10 12 6 9 11 13 14
* ICELANDER is unsafe and is also drawn 1
* POETIC LORD is drawn 2 and opposed
* He is quite exposed for seasonal debutant
* HAJRAS isn’t drawn well in stall 3
* I dont like him from a 3yo handicap over 8f
* There were several winners doing that
* None had 2 runs like HAJRAS
* Those like HAJRAS winning last time were 0-16
* REWARDED also won a 3yo handicap over a Mile
* We know all 16 horses doing that failed
* TRADER JACK didnt run well enough last time
* I feel the same about TIDAL WAY
* HURRICANE IN DUBAI won a maiden last time
* None did that with only 2 career starts
* HUMUNGOSAUR – Too exposed to be beaten so far
* MCVICAR – Unlikely to hold off the improvers
* AL SAHAM – No winners came from Pattern class as 2yo’s
* CLAYTON – Not far away but only 2 runs
* The only horses like him had 3 runs and I’d prefer that
* ALMUFTARRIS won a 10f maiden last time
* Normally that was a bad profile in this race
* The 2010 winner did win with the same profile though
* That gets him respect but he is the owners 2nd string

Shortlist

* EXPENSE CLAIM – Good solid all round profile
* THOMAS CHIPPENDALE – 1 similar winner
* THOMAS CHIPPENDALE is the most likely winner
* I’d want to include both horses in the staking plan
* Given the prices I am drawn to the bigger priced horse

Selection

EXPENSE CLAIM 7/1 Win Bet blue sq – betfred – william hill – bet365

THOMAS CHIPPENDALE 9/4 Saver Bet blue sq

Live market odds at
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-05-19/newbury/15-05/betting/

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

A s c o t   2.35

4/1 Smad Place, 5/1 A Bridge Too Far, 11/2 Ciceron
6/1 Shoreacres, 13/2 Joseph Lister, 7/1 Royal Charm
12/1 Pateese, 16/1 Orzare, 16/1 Rowan Tiger
20/1 Tara Rose.

* This is a Graded Handicap Hurdle just short of 2m 4f
* Statistically there are only 5 renewals to consider
* 5 year olds have  yet to win this race.
* SMAD PLACE wouldnt interest me because of that
* Especially not first time out when not 100% fit
* JOSEPH LISTER is also rejected as a 5yo
* He looks short of runs with just 3 hurdle races
* You would have thought lightly raced hurdlers are best
* Thats not the case in this race
* Winners had 16 12 32 20 17 previous hurdle runs
* That shows this goes to experienced hurdlers
* ROWAN TIGER is out with 4 runs from a Novice Hurdle
* A BRIDGE TOO FAR has only had 6 hurdle starts
* Without Graded backclass I dont see a strong case
* TARA ROSE – Rejected as a mare with just 4 runs
* ORZARE wouldnt interest me first time out
* ROYAL CHARM doesnt offer me enough
* Not keen that he comes from a Chase
* Not sure he is fit enough
* Not convinced he is weighted to win anyway
* CICERON – I thought he had a fair chance
* CICERON is potentially a saver
* PATEESE – Comes here after well beaten last time
* He had excuses and should strip fitter
* Not long ago he was favourite for the Greatwood Hurdle
* I think he is worth a saver

S e l e c t i o n

SHOREACRES

I like the chance of SHOREACRES. He has had 2 Hurdle
starts since switching from Chasing. He never really took
to fences but did manage a win from 8 Chase starts. Look
back before he went Chasing. This horse managed a 4th
in the Champion Bumper and a decent 7th in a Supreme
Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham. That shows he has plenty
of class. He then went Chasing with limited success but a
couple of hurdle runs recently shows me he can win this.
He does have fewer hurdle runs than all past winners did
but he is plenty experienced because of his chasing races.
I think his last two runs show him in top form and with
a strong form chance. He likes right handed tracks and
is very fit and it’s hard to see him being far away here.

Selection

SHOREACRES Some 7/1 and 13/2 was available earlier when full members got this.
11/2 now top bookmaker price at ladbrokes, bet365 and VC
Each way I would suggest

Or alternately if you like bet it on the nose with a saver bet on
PATEESE at 10/1 bet365 betfred sky ladbrokes boylesports

For more info on my private service see here ==> Betting Advice

 

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

SERVICE NEWS

There are 69 days to the Cheltenham Festival. In
aviation terms the National Hunt flight takes off
in November with the Destination Cheltenham in
March. We have been through the turbulance of
weeks 1 and 2 in January where the racing is poor
and one of the bumpiest parts of the trip. Now as
we come to weeks 3 and 4 in January the flight is
now starting a gradual descent down to destination.
During that descent passangers will be able to see
some great landmarks like the Tote Gold Trophy
now known sadly as the Betfair hurdle. There is
the Skybet Chase – The Victor Chandler at Ascot
and many other statistically strong races. We are
entering Ante Post Season now which is always a
lot more interesting than the drudgery you get on
the Sand and the lower grade national hunt cards.
I plan to do full statistical previews for all the big
trials and I always get excited at this time of year.

SATURDAY’S RACING

The horse I am most excited about today
and the strongest bet advised today to Full Members,
runs in a very early race today. I will leave metioning it here
on the free betting blog.

For the free tip today we are off to Warwick for one of the later races.

W a r w i c k   3.40

5/1 Sona Sasta, 6/1 Neptune Equester, 7/1 Blazing Bailey
7/1 Strongbows Legend, 8/1 Major Malarkey, 10/1 Faasel
10/1 Hey Big Spender, Bench Warrent 14/1 Fredo
14/1 Morning Moment,16/1 On Borrowed Wings
20/1 Hello Bud 20/1 Miko De Beauchene.

* The Classic Chase is a high class 3m 5f Handicap Chase
* There are 20 similar races at this time of year.
* Not a great stats race as it has changed over the years
* There is a small sample size of these races as well
* MORNING MOMENT – Not for me 8lbs out of the weights
* All recent winners had more backclass than him
* His last run was poor and he has a weak profile
* Only 2 winners overcame heavy defeats to win similar races
* They all had Backclass in Graded races and he doesnt
* I’d also argue he may not stay this far
* MIKO DE BEAUCHENE looks wrong aged 12
* He has not ran a good race in over 2 years
* He is out of the handicap and offers nothing
* FAASEL is 11 and has a miserable profile
* I dont want to bet an exposed 11yo first time out
* I looked at every race in January
* Thats every distance , every class and any kind of race
* I looked at exposed horses aged 11 or more first time
* None managed to win beyond 3 Miles
* None managed to win beyond a Class 4 race
* The only Handicap Chase winner was 2m 5f in Class 4
* FAASEL has a very hard task in my view
* He has never won beyond 2m 5f before either
* HEY BIG SPENDER comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* There isnt enough recovery time
* That hurts his profile and so does his weight
* Horses with 11st 8lbs in this race were 0-17
* HEY BIG SPENDER also has to prove he stays this far
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 3f yet
* BENCH WARRENT comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* He may struggle to get over a hard race at Chepstow
* Statistically I can live with him
* I cant forgive him a hard 4th in the Welsh National
* Not with a very inexperienced jockey
* ON BORROWED WINGS comes from 22f
* No winners did that in any similar race in January
* His last Chase was only in a Novice Handicap
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* FREDO is exposed and doesnt do it for me
* No exposed horse won when  aged 8
* None won when coming from 3m or shorter either
* FREDO also has to show he stays
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* HELLO BUD is too old aged 14
* I looked at every winner aged 13 or more over 3m 2f +
* Thats in any race and at any time of year
* There was only 1 winner beyond a Class 3 race
* That was Spot The Difference in a Cross Country Chase
* Out of form aged 14 he is not worth betting
* BLAZING BAILEY comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* There isnt enough recovery time
* I can accept the argument he is a class horse
* And that he will like the ground and the drop in class
* You can also argue he didnt have too hard a race at Chepstow
* Statistically though he is not strong
* I looked at all exposed horses running within a month
* They had a bad record and none ran as badly as him last time

S h o r t l i s t

* MAJOR MALARKEY has 1 run this season
* Thats easily my biggest problem with him
* Past winners had  1 2 3 2 6 2 4 runs that season
* Last years winner was a 9yo with 1 run this year
* That really does help his profile
* Last years winner also had 9 Chase starts like him
* Last years winner helpsm to gets him shortlisted
* Without that evidence I’d have opposed him
* Still bothers me he’s the only horse with 1 run

* STRONGBOWS LEGEND is hard to read aged 7
* All 7 year old winners were placed last time
* STRONGBOWS LEGEND Fell which isnt a good preparation
* Ignore that and he won 25 lengths before that
* This is said to be a very well handicapped horse
* His lack of backclass bothers me a bit
* STRONGBOWS LEGEND has no form beyond Class 3 grade
* The last 7 winners all had Graded form
* Almost every similar winner had more backclass too
* He is 5lbs out of the handicap as well
* I like him a lot but not sure if he has the class

* SONA SASTA has 5 Chase starts
* We have had recent winners with 4 and 6 chase starts
* I’d have liked a slighly better last run
* I can overlook that as he hasn’t done much wrong
* If the grounds right he must be a player
* He has to prove he stays this far though
* Thats not certain on his breeding

* NEPTUNE EQUESTER – No strong problems with him
* He did the right thing avoiding the Welsh National
* I dont see why he shouldnt go well

Selection

NEPTUNE EQUESTER 13/2 Each Way

13/2 available at bet365

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-01-14/warwick/15-40/betting/

 

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips