ASCOT 3.50

Victoria Racing Club International Stakes
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+)7f

7/1 Tagseed, 8/1 Decent Fella, 8/1 Yaa Wayl, Poet´s Place,
12/1 Crown Choice, 12/1 Himalya, 16/1 Castles In The Air
16/1 Mac´s Power, 16/1 Suruor, Swift Gift, 20/1 Imperial Guest 20/1 Noble Citizen, 20/1 Something, 25/1 Advanced,
25/1 Al Muheer, 25/1 Big Noise, Hacienda, 33/1 Al Farahidi
33/1 Gallagher, 33/1 Glen Molly, 33/1 Hajoum.

* This is a 7f handicap for horses rated 0-105
* There has been 10 renewals of this race
* There has been 40 similar Class 2 handicaps elsewhere in July
* Starting with a quick shortlist of whats won this race
* All 10 winners were Male horses
* Horses aged 4 have dominated winning 8 of the 10 races
* Horses that were other ages have struggled
* 3 year olds (1-55) 5 year olds (1-57) Horses aged 6 + (0-60)
* You want between 5 and 20 Career starts
* Exposed horses had a 1-100 record in the 10 renewals
* You ideally want 4 + runs this season if having 9 + runs
* Horses with 9 + runs and 1-2-3 runs that year were 0-51
* Horses with 4-5 runs this season were best
* Your horse is best coming from Ascot or Newmarket
* 9 of the 10 winners came from one of those tracks
* You don’t want a horse that has run in Group 1/Group 2 before
* 9 of the 10 winners ran 2-7 weeks ago
* None were absent more than 7 weeks
* Those running within 2 weeks were 1-84
* Horses from Listed or Group races were 0-35
* Horses from 6f or shorter had a weak record
* Those with 9 or more career starts  from 6f were 0-42
* No horse had 5 or more previous wins (0-66)
* These Ascot angles leave a shortlist of 2

TAGSEED - MAC´S POWER

Both drawn wide apart. You could bet one and save
on the other. Its a guess which in my view is best so
as its the bigger price my Number 1 would have to be
MAC’S POWER but the sensible thing is to see which
side of the draw is favoured from previous races here
today and be prepared to switch if the draw dictates it.

Tagseed best price 11/1 Coral

Mac’s power available at 16/1 Paddy Power bet365 VC * more

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ASCOT 12.55

4/1 Noakarad De Verzee, 5/1 River Ripples, Skipper´s Lad
6/1 Plein Pouvoir, 6/1 Pure Genius, 10/1 Knighton Combe
12/1 Flaco, 14/1 Plane Painter, 16/1 Aldiruos, 16/1 Sarahs Gift16/1 Senor Shane.

There has been 87 of these Novice Handicap Chases at
this time of year. No horse with 13 + starts dropped from
3m 3f or more so SKIPPER’S LAD isn’t like any of the
87 winners and is rejected. It’s interesting PURE GENIUS
is a mare and no mare came from 2m 4f or shorter as she
does so she is unlike any past winner either. None of the
87 winners were aged 10 or more and RIVER RIPPLES
fails that and has to come from 2m 4f or more so I dont
want him. I do wonder if PLEIN POUVOIR did enough
on his seasonal debut beaten 36 lengths just 18 days ago
and he surely isnt a certain stayer. FLACO isnt a negative
but I am happy to ignore him with 2 runs and coming via
a Novice Hurdle for Desert Orchid’s owner. My choice is
NOAKARAD DE VERZEE. Lightly raced. Unusual form
mixing Point to Points and Hunter Chases before he ran
well at Chepstow in a Handicap Chase. I think the issue
is whether he can win a 0-115 chase and the evidence of
his last run strongly suggests he can and I think he may
be very well handicapped and he could well outclass these.

SELECTION - NOAKARAD DE VERZEE

Now best priced 11/4 Ladbrokes, Hills, PaddyPower, Coral, VC

Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday December 20th

No Account Bet

No Selections

Decided to resist a bet today on either account. If I had one it would be simply be because it was a Saturday and not for the right reasons. Its one of those Saturday’s where the racing is high class and fascinating to watch with some top quality horses running but its so competetive that strong bets dont look obvious. I have nothing on the sand today so the message revolves around 8 races I like. I have covered most of the big races today and as a message goes its not a bad one aside from one that doesnt throw up a serious bet on the day. Feel a little bit embarrased and dissapointed not to find something strong today but I dont want to abandon a principle in throwing any horse at you just because its a saturday and pretending I like it more than I do. I think its a day for small stakes through the message from start to finish or a day to possibly throw a few horses in an each way multiple bet. Stronger days will come soon enough. Leaving this one for interest only bettingIf stuck for inspiration of your own today see below.

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ASCOT 1.40 BoyleSports INTERNATIONAL HURDLE GRADE 2 (4yo+) 2m

11/10 Binocular, 7/2 Crack Away Jack, 11/2 Chomba Womba, 11/2 Katchit, 12/1 Celestial Halo.

SELECTION - KATCHIT Best Current Price 7/1 Coral

KATCHIT can win this race. This is a Quality 2m hurdle with some class hurdlers including Champion Hurdler KATCHITand several pretenders to his crown. This is rescheduled from last weeks abandoned Cheltenham meeting. KATCHIT was my choice last weeks race and is today. I dont like the horse as he has never done me any favours and I would rather he hadnt have won the Champion Hurdle last year. I dont think he will in 2009 either but surely he has to be the bet here. We know that this race is not a good race for 4 year olds. Not saying they cant win but they do score badly. Is it so unreasonable to assume KATCHIT must beat these pretenders. He is the Champion Hurdler. Wouldyou not expect him to beat CELESTIAL HERO a 4 year old whohas never faced an older horse before and is having his first run of the season. Can he not give 4lbs and 2lbs to the 4 year olds in the race. When we get to March we will be discussing the bad record of 5 year olds in the Champion Hurdle. KATCHIT overcame that and both BINOCULAR and CRACK AWAY JACK will face the same problems next March. Surely you would rather bet the horse that overcame a very hard statistic that lasted decades over two 4 year olds and a Mare in Chomba Womba. As for this theory that KATCHIT had a better chance at Cheltenham - That may be true but I think thats got into peoples minds as they have seen him run at Cheltenham so many times before. It is also an assumption that will add 2 points to his price. His record right handed is perfectly fine and he has had two warm up runs to gain full fitness. I think the ground beat him at Kempton forst time out and he was givinglumps of weight away last time. His 3rd run of the year - a smaller field and back at just about level weights we may be saying after the race that KATCHIT was far too big a price for a champion hurdle winner running against 4 year olds and mares at these weights.

Posted under horse racing tips

Just a small Extract from our Saturday message from today.

Nb There is a proper account bet for full members of mathematician-betting.co.uk in the 3.35 at Haydock

ASCOT 4:50 - MILES & MORRISON OCTOBER STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 7f

7/2 Majestic Roi, 8/1 Crystany, Ethaara, Francesca D´Gorgio, Illusion, Salsa Steps, Spinning Lucy, 10/1 Meydan Princess, 12/1 Kylayne, Medicea Sidera,
25/1 Ghostmilk, Steam Cuisine, 33/1 Candle Sahara, Monaazalah, Vital Statistics, 66/1 Indian Diva.

* The October Stakes is a fillies Listed race over 7f
* There has only been 7 renewals of this race
* There has been 20 other Listed races for fillies at this time of year
* The 7 winners had 8-5-8-3-7-5-9 previous races
* It does look a race for lightly raced 3 year olds
* Horses with 10 + runs had a 0-47 record
* Horses aged 4 or more had a 0-27 record
* If you look at the 20 Listed races at this time of year
* Only 2 had as much as 13 or more career starts
* Horses aged 3 or 4 with 13 + runs were 0-39
* This leads me to take out all the exposed horses
* MAJESTIC ROI may be vulnerable aged 4 with 15 runs
* She is the best horse on ratings but she isn’t for me
* She is not typical of any previous winner of this race
* GHOSTMILK -KYLAYNE- MEDICEA SIDERA look exposed
* So to does STEAM CUISINE and VITAL STATISTICS
* I would take out the 4 year olds as they havent won this yet
* All winners of this race had at least 4 runs this season
* In 20 other races horses that had 1-2 runs that year struggled
* No horse managed it with 5 or more career runs (0-30)
* Francesca D´Gorgio fails that
* Horses that came from 7f races with 9 + runs were 0-41
* Spinning Lucy - Candle Sahara both fail that
* I think there are 4 runners with strong profiles
* ETHAARA - ILLUSION - MEYDAN PRINCESS - CRYSTANY
* I like ETHAARA - ILLUSION best of these
* ILLUSION has a very similar profile to 2006 winner Makderah
* She comes from the same race and was badly hampered in that race
* Her trainer has won this race before and at an estimated 14/1 she’s my choice

**blog comment: currently trading a  bit shorter than the Racing Post estimated 14/1.

13.5/1 Betfair being the best current price ***

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