Scottish Grand National

AYR 3.20

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

8/1 Poker De Sivola, 9/1 Meanus Dandy, Theatrical Moment
12/1 Gone To Lunch, 14/1 Faasel, 14/1 Scots Dragoon, Merigo
16/1 Mobaasher, 16/1 That´s Rhythm, 20/1 Dom D´orgeval
20/1 Killyglen, 20/1 Lothian Falcon, 25/1 Auroras Encore
25/1 Halcon Genelardais, 25/1 Himalayan Trail, 25/1 Montero
25/1 Razor Royale, 33/1 Chiaro, Gidam Gidam 33/1 Out The Black
33/1 Superior Wisdom, According To John, 50/1 Cleni Boy 50/1 Idle Talk,
50/1 Ma Yahab, No Panic, 50/1 Present M´lord 50/1 Western Gale,
66/1 Lorum Leader, 100/1 Craiglands.
* The Scottish Grand National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992

In Nationals I am very suspicious about horses that look
underraced this year. No horse has won this race having
had under 3 runs this year so CHIARO - WESTERN GALE
LOTHIAN FALCON and HALCON GENELARDAIS have
weak profiles. Others that look underraced this year are
OUT THE BLACK, FAASEL, MERIGO, GIDAM GIDAM
CLENI BOY and IDLE TALK. I’d oppose these few horses.

Preperation is everything in Nationals and its interesting
that horses who Fell last time out or who Pulled Up had a
0-112 record in this race. You want a horse coming  here
confident and in form I’d be wary of horses not finishing
or falling in their last race. ACCORDING TO JOHN fails
that as does RAZOR ROYALE - LORUM LEADER and
THAT´S RHYTHM. I would be inclined to ignore these.

You want  some Experience over fences.Go back to 1998
and look at all the winners and the seconds and thirds in
this race. There are 33 win and place positions there and
the 33 horses all had the following number of chase starts.

13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21
10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17

You can see that no horse won or placed in this race
with fewer than 5 Chase starts. I would want at least
5 chase runs. SUPERIOR WISDOM doesnt have the
experience. I am also against MEANUS DANDY with
just 4 Chase starts. He is also a 7yo and only 1 winner
was that age and he had Graded form. MONTERO is
also rejected with just 4 Chase starts.

There’s been 2 recent winners that lacked Graded form
so it can be done but Neither of these were exposed so
I would be wary of horses that have ran enough times
to be classed as exposed but who haven’t got any past
form in Graded races before. I suspect these horses will
lack the class. PRESENT M´LORD  - SCOTS DRAGOON
FINE BY ME - MA YAHAB are all lacking this factor.

Horses from ordinary Novice Chases have yet to win it
and all 19 that tried failed. MOBAASHER fails that and
is not for me. Tehnically POKER DE SIVOLA also fails
that when winning the 4m Cheltenham Amateur Riders
race at the Festival. You can probably forgive him that
as a Festival winner but he is only a 7 year old and they
have the worst records and it’s asking a lot for a  horse
to win at Cheltenham and win this as well. If you look
at the horses that came from the Cheltenham Festival
they had a 2-68 record. None were exposed horses as
POKER DE SIVOLA is. None were 7 year olds. Both
who did it had Grade 1 form and he doesnt and what’s
possibly more interesting is that no horse that finished
1-2-3-4 at the Cheltenham festival won this race. Thats
enough to put me off POKER DE SIVOLA. Staying with
Cheltenham Festival horses THEATRICAL MOMENT
also comes from Cheltenham. We know no 7 year olds
done that and no horse has done it without a previous
run in a Grade 1 race and he lacks that. Considering all
7 year olds struggled in this race (1-44) and that winner
had more backclass THEATRICAL MOMENT doesn’t
really interest me. NO PANIC is also a 7yo and rejected.

I dont like horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter. Only 1
past winner did that and he had a run within a week. It
is why I oppose AURORAS ENCORE who also comes
from hurdles something no past winner had done. I do
not think CRAIGLANDS has the backclass to overcome
a nasty absence. HIMALAYAN TRAIL is an exposed
11 year old and these horses dont score well.

SHORTLIST

GONE TO LUNCH
KILLYGLEN
DOM D´ORGEVAL

GONE TO LUNCH is shortlistable but to have been a
really strong runner he needed to have finished better
last time and a heavy defeat knocks him back a bit. I’d
shortlist DOM D´ORGEVAL as his run last week just
gets him through the shortlist. KILLYGLEN looks one
of the better runners if he can cope with the weight

SELECTION -
DOM D´ORGEVAL 20/1  bet365 who pay 5 places

Each Way

Posted under Major Horse Races

I have gone with IMPERIAL SWORD at Ayr.
To be honest if I had complete faith in the Trainer and could rely on the fact
he is doing his best I might have upgraded him as a bet. Its a very hard yard to read though.
IMPERIAL SWORD was 2nd in this race last year and should have won.
Ran well last time. He will probably be in last place 3 furlongs out and will come late.
Happy enough with the 8/1 but I know we are taking a risk with the stable.

AYR 5.50

CHAMPAGNE G H MUMM GRAND CRU APPRENTICE
HANDICAP(CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-70) 6f

4/1 Hitches Dubai, 9/2 Botham, 9/2 Downhill Skier,
11/2 Feeling Fresh, 7/1 Imperial Sword, 10/1 Thunder Bay,
12/1 Almost Married, 12/1 Liberty Trail, 25/1 Coconut Moon, 33/1 Forrest Star.

* 317 Similar low grade handicaps at this time of year
* Only seven of the 317 winners came from Maidens
* Those that came from 5f maidens were 0-42
* HITCHES DUBAI fails that
* Horses aged 4 from maidens were 0-28
* HITCHES DUBAI fails that as well so he is avoided
* ALMOST MARRIED is a negative
* He won last years race but not with just 1 run and 81 days off
* FEELING FRESH has a poor profile in my view
* Horses from 8f or more with 3 or less runs that year are 2-78
* None did it with 13 or more runs
* FEELING FRESH fails that and looks opposable
* THUNDER BAY has a poor profile
* FORREST STAR - COCONUT MOON are out of form mares
* LIBERTY TRAIL has an unsafe profile
* All the above horses are negatives
* DOWNHILL SKIER is drawn 1 and I dont like that
* The last 12 handicaps here with 9 + runners
* 11 of the 12 winners were drawn 5 or higher
* He beat IMPERIAL SWORD last time out
* IMPERIAL SWORD was second in this race last year
* He was also unlucky in running
* BOTHAM is well drawn and has no obvious flaws
* I prefer IMPERIAL SWORD and Botham

SELECTION

IMPERIAL SWORD

Blog Comment was 8/1 or more earlier
Now 7/1 betfred, Corals , Tote

Posted under horse racing tips

Mathematician 155

Friday 29th August

1 Account Bet

Todays Account Bet

Hamilton 4.15

SUPERIOR STAR

£50 Each Way 8/1

£100 Staked on the Day

SUPERIOR STAR is 8/1 with Hills -s james-betdirect - Tote
SUPERIOR STAR is 15/2 with Blue Square -Corals -888Sport

SATURDAY

Going to change strategy tomorrow and take all the pressure
off the Saturday message. I will post trends and angles for most races on Saturday on the message board this afternoon and evening. The very best races I want to bet in I will save for the E Mail. It will probably be a 2-3-4 race message. You will be able to see every angle elsewhere on the message board or if you cant access that or don’t want you just drop me an e mail and I will send you all the other thoughts separately. I am doing this as Sunday racing has to be covered and we have 2 Friday messages so it will help to reduce the time pressure
a great deal. Shorter message planned tomorrow

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T O D A Y ‘ S R A C I N G

HAMILTON 4:15 SITE SERVICES PLANT LTD HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 1m65y

3/1 Wednesdays Boy, 9/2 Five Wishes, Primo Way, 5/1 Mystical Ayr, 6/1 Superior Star, 8/1 Apres Ski,
14/1 Augustus John, Middlemarch, 33/1 Sydneyroughdiamond.

* This is a 0-70 handicap over a Mile
* Hamilton have had 38 similar races at this time of year
* I watched the down in class MIDDLEMARCH on tape
* I dont think he ran well enough to bet even in this class
* He was just struggling rather than shaping like a winner
* I would oppose APRES SKI as he comes up from 6f
* Horses that did that had pretty poor records
* AUGUSTUS JOHN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not with just 2 runs this year and well beaten last year
* Sydneyroughdiamond looks outclassed
* I think this is between the front 5 in the betting
* FIVE WISHES and PRIMO WAY were 1st and 2nd last time
* That was in the same race and it was only a claimer
* They will be close together again and hard to split
* I Looked at Fillies coming from claimers like FIVE WISHES
* They were poor (1-50) and shes 0-9 in handicaps
* That 0-9 record was mainly from far lower handicap marks
* WEDNESDAYS BOY and MYSTICAL AYR are also respected
* They were 1st and 4th in the same 0-64 handicap at Ayr 2 runs ago
* MYSTICAL AYR has since come out and run well
* WEDENSDAYS BOY came out and won at Ayr yesterday
* That was a 0-58 but he did it well and he must go close
* Running yesterday gives him a serious advantage in my view
* All these 4 look in the right grade and have reasonable chances
* WEDENSDAYS BOY would easily be my preference of these
* I just wonder if we have not got a clever dark one here
* SUPERIOR STAR Looks well worth a bet
* SUPERIOR STAR interests me a fair bit off “57″
* He was running well off marks of 70 last year
* Richard Fahey trained him then and he is now with N Wilson
* If you think about it this horse probably hasnt been staying 10f
* He is by Superior Premium who was a sprinter
* The Dam was also a sprinter
* Superior Premium has yet to breed a 10f winner yet
* All his siblings like Baltic King -Domingues and others are sprinters
* Look at his last 9 races since November 2007
* He still managed a 3rd 3rd and 4th from 3 hurdle starts last winter
* That may have fooled people into thinking he will stay further on the flat
* I think a horse like him has little chance of staying over hurdles
* I dont think he has a prayer of staying 10f
* In Febuary he ran ok at Southwell but he wouldnt have stood out that day
* He was after all coming from Hurdles and it was only Febuary
* He did nothing wrong at Warwick in March
* His last 4 runs all had valid excuses
* You can take out his last run over 10f - he didnt stay that day
* Watched the video and he was a blatant non stayer
* Before stamina gave out he was running a blinder
* Take out that run and his 10f Beverely run as well in July
* He flopped at Thirsk and I am not sure why
* It was a rough race - he missed the break as well and was eased
* He was also badly hampered at Pontefract as well
* The racing post rate him “significantly better than the bare form”
* Back to a mile in a small field his horse must go well
* SUPERIOR STAR Looks a strong bet
* I would have to consider a “save” on WEDNESDAYS BOY
* Alternately an each way option

Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips