Clearly the big issue today is the rain that is falling everywhere.
We might see ground changes at many tracks but that’s not
certain to happen and it does make it impossible to approach
the day as confident as I would like.
The Conditions are against us with this rain.
If I were to have an account bet today I couldn’t answer
the obvious question of whether the ground is right so
decided to have a No Account Bet Saturday because of this.

By tomorrow we will know the Newmarket ground better
and the draw advantage so Sunday may be the time for a
bet there.

Despite the above I know many of you will want to have an interest today.
Here is one to consider if so.

HAYDOCK 3.00

EBF Joan Westbrook Pinnacle Stakes (Listed Race)
(Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m3f200y

11/4 Barshiba, 9/2 Becqu Adoree, 5/1 Les Fazzani
5/1 Polly´s Mark, 11/2 Rosika, 7/1 Flame Of Gibraltar
20/1 Three Moons, 25/1 Cassique Lady
33/1 Victoria Montoya, 40/1 All Annalena.

Never done this race before. It’s a Listed Class race for
fillies just short of 12 furlongs. There are just 7 renewals
of this race and no identical races elsewhere.
This race has always been won by a 4 year old.
They have won all 7 renewals so I would be wary of older horses.
That puts me off CASSIQUE LADY-VICTORIA MONTOYA -
BARSHIBA - LES FAZZANI.
We know this is a strong race for seasonal debutants.
If you look at horses who have run this season in the past 7
years you find  none  of then had more than 13 starts.
That is another pointer against the horses above.
ALL ANNALENA did not do enough last time.
THREE MOONS has to go with 1 run this year and up in distance.
POLLYS MARK has some chance but I want a debutant.

The ideal profile is this -

* 4 year old
* Seasonal debutant
* At least 3 career starts
* Running over 10f-13f last time
* At least 2 career wins
* There were 4 horses with that profile
* These 4 horses finished W W W W
* They won in 2009 2007 2005 2003

* BECQU ADOREE comes out well
* FLAME OF GIBRALTA is close to making that
* She just lacks a second win
* Dont rule her out though
* The 2007 winner came from the same trial race as her
* ROSIKA also comes from that same trial race
* ROSIKA is statistically perfect

The problem you have is ROSIKA wont be proven on
the ground if it changes as expected. The rain brings
POLLY’S MARK more into it. Given all the options I’d
still be happier with an unraced 4 year old so given that
BECQU ADOREE has form on the ground I will go with
her. BECQU ADOREE is the selection.

Posted under horse racing tips

Ten previews today for full members.
Impossible to go through it all with so many
meetings and as ever it’s theusual Saturday balancing
act of trying to offer a balanced message with potential
bets withoutkilling the chances through looking at too much.

This feels like a tough Saturday to me. Plenty of
the big field Saturday television handicaps today.
Statistically the strongest profiles in these races
have non - statistical problems with the likes of
Our Joe Mac and Ziggy Lee in the 2.30 and 3.40
races having outstanding profiles but issues to
overcome with the ground and the draw. I don’t
see either as safe enough to go with as a bet. I’d
not see this as a message to follow all the way to
the end as the races are too difficult and there is
a limit to how many winners we can have today.

Would have liked a strong bet on a Saturday but
if there is not one so be it. I think the race that I’d
be best to advise to bet in would be the Haydock
Mile handicap at 4.40pm. I think I have the correct
mix of negatives prices and profiles in the race and
I want to use this race to try and get a winner for
full members.

They quite rightfully complain however if the strongest bets
go up here on the free blog so I have selected another race
from the main message here today.

CHESTER 5.10

Lambrini Original Handicap (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 1m2f75y

7/2 Norwegian Dancer, 7/2 Prince Of Johanne
9/2 Bullet Man 6/1 I´m In The Pink, 10/1 Kidlat
10/1 Paquerettza, 20/1 Geneva Geyser, 25/1 Dragon Slayer
33/1 Bagutta Sun.

This is a 10f handicap for 0-85 rated horses. We have 145
similar races at this time of year. I think KIDLAT looks to
have too much to do well beaten just 2 days ago. Horses
beaten more than 10 lengths with just 1 run this season
had a miserable record. Those like GENEVA GEYSER that
dropped in trip were 0-50 and he looks weak. Another to
fall foul of that stat is DRAGON SLAYER too old for me
to overcome such a defeat. I’d oppose BAGUTTA SUN
from a 7f race. Only 2 of the 145 winners did that but its
relevant none were fillies and none as inexperienced as
she is. PRINCE OF JOHANNE has a complicated profile.
I looked at all 4 year olds like him with 7-12 runs who are
running within the last fortnight and found a poor 1-39
record. I can improve that record if I look at horses that
ran 2-4 weeks away but none were 1st or 2nd last time
and most had less weight. I think he is a borderline case
for shortlisting as he is complicated. What I dont like is
his Draw in stall 1. At this trip thats not the best draw
as very low drawn horses can often get cut off at what
is a very quick first bend. Overall I felt he was never a
horse I would select so I leave him off the shortlist. It’s
hard to rule out I´M IN THE PINK but I was not happy
with a horse without any backclass coming down from
a 12f race and found a weak profile. As it is already a
heavy shortlist as it is such an open race I am leaving
I´M IN THE PINK off it as there are better profiles.

SHORTLIST

NORWEGIAN DANCER has a good profile and from all
4 year olds winning with 1 run that season he comes out
as quite similar to those so is a positive. I have found 1
similar winner to PAQUERETTZA. Not a prolific profile
but it gets her shortlisted. No reason why BULLET MAN
cant win this race. 3 shortlisted. Open race. Tight Decision.

SELECTION

BULLET MAN each way
5/1 PaddyPower Ladbrokes betfred Blue Square s james

Posted under horse racing tips

NEWBURY 3.05

Totesport.com Lockinge Stakes (Group 1)
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m

5/6 Paco Boy, 100/30 Zacinto, 14/1 Lord Shanakill
14/1 Ouqba, 14/1 Pipedreamer, 14/1 The Cheka
25/1 Stimulation, 40/1 Prince Of Dance, 66/1 Kargali.

It is Lockinge day at Newbury. Purely on profiles I am
going to oppose the odds on favourite with ZACINTO
in this race. Not sure how realistic that is and he would
not appeal as an account bet with a long absence but it
is interesting that since this race was awarded Group 1
status 15 years ago None of the winners were similar to
the odds on Paco Boy yet an incredible 8 of the 15 that
won were very similar to ZACINTO so he’s a decent bet

The Lockinge Stakes has an odds on favourite this year in
last years 4th PACO BOY. Like many I was impressed with
his win in the Sandown Mile. In 2009 PACO BOY won the
Sandown Mile and I opposed him in this race last year as
statistically there was a question mark. Horses that have
run this season have won 3 of the 15 Lockinge’s and they
all ran in the Sandown Mile as PACO BOY has done. The
fact remains that horses winning at Sandown and coming
to this race have a 0-26 record. That has to be a concern
as it beat him last year. It was the horses that Placed last
time at Sandown that won this race like THE CHEKA but
as he is lighter raced than any similar horse and that does
worry me. Given he is odds on and fails a big trend I think
it is worth giving ZACINTO a chance to win this race.

* Horses aged 4 first time out
* Between 4 and 12 career runs
* Previous Grade 1 form
* At least 3 Career wins
* Horses with that profile have a 8-16 record
* Its a better record than it looks
* 5 of the losers were beaten by the same type of horse
* ZACINTO has that profile and looks interesting
* Given the frame of the race I would be with him e/w
* ZACINTO each way is the suggestion.

Best current odds 7/2 bet365 s james

For all Odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-05-15/newbury/15-05/betting/

Best Wishes

Guy

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Join the full service to get detailed analysis on multiple races each day.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/betting-advice.asp

Posted under Major Horse Races

LINGFIELD 5.30

6/1 My Learned Friend, 13/2 Hazzard County, Oh So Saucy
7/1 Shaded Edge, 8/1 Realt Na Mara, 8/1 Rubenstar
8/1 Straight Face, 10/1 Alqaahir, 12/1 Headache
12/1 Ravi River, 14/1 Carmenero, 14/1 El Libertador
25/1 Sam´s Cross, 33/1 Oi Vay Joe, 66/1 Crystal B Good.

This 7f handicap is for Lady Amateurs. You can argue a
high draw is a must in this race but last years winner was
drawn in stall 1 just to throw uncertainty into the mix.
I’d be demanding a high draw myself. OH SO SAUCY looks
weak as a mare absent over 7 months and drawn 1. I see
ALQAAHIR as opposable. All his wins (5) are on sand
so having never won on turf its strange to see him with
a higher handicap mark on grass and I don’t like his draw.
EL LIBERTADOR - CRYSTAL B GOOD -  HEADACHE
are all badly drawn and offering nothing at all to entice me.
OI VAY JOE has been absent too long. I am happy to ignore
SAM´S CROSS - SHADED EDGE with their absences.
HAZZARD COUNTY is more complicated but he does not
come out well enough. I cant rule out REALT NA MARA but
exposed and unraced in over 6 months brings it’s own problems.
RAVI RIVER looks weak from sellers. CARMENERO weak up in trip.

MY LEARNED FRIEND is shortlistable after coming
4th in last years race from a poor draw first time out.
He has a run this year.

My selection is STRAIGHT FACE who won last time.
Its quite interesting that the last 3 winners of this race
all won last time out. Since 1993 last time out winners
in all Amateur races that had 4 or more runs that year
and that were aged under 8 years old had an excellent
W W W W W record in these races. He was a little bit
lucky to win last time but the real issue is he is fit and
running well with confidence and well drawn and with
similar horses doing curiously well in these races I see
STRAIGHT FACE as a good a bet as any in this race.

STRAIGHT FACE Each Way
8/1 William Hill 0r betfred

Posted under horse racing tips

LINGFIELD 4.10

7/4 Becausewecan, 9/2 Dance The Star, 7/1 Cluain Alainn,
Samarinda, 10/1 Cashpoint.

This is a nasty framed race with 7 runners. Its a 0-92 handicap over 12 furlongs.
There has been 176 similar races at this time of year.
If you look at 4 year olds like BECAUSEWECAN who are having their
seasonal debuts when they have had 9 or more career starts their strike
rate dips dramatically and they have a 1-35 record with that winner having
far less weight. That would encourage me to oppose him first time out from his career high
handicap mark.  Equally no 4yo first time out debutant was like
CLUAIN ALAINN and he wouldnt interest me either. I think it is asking too
much of CASHPOINT to win this from a maiden and a small stable.
I think its between DANCE THE STAR and  SAMARINDA who finished
2nd and 5th in the same handicap  last time. DANCE THE STAR has a solid chance.
Statistically SAMARINDA has an excellent profile as a 7yo running well last time.
All his wins have been at shorter but he hasnt had a chance to show he stays properly
at 12f. He ran well over 12f last time but that was inconclusive.
He is probably value  but DANCE THE STAR did beat him last time.
I think I would have to bet one and save on another.
As SAMARINDA is better handicapped and a better price I’d see him as the best
option. Therefore DANCE THE STAR has to be the danger
but SAMARINDA the bet at around 7/1

SELECTION - SAMARINDA
7/1 betfred bet365

Posted under horse racing tips