Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Cheltenham 3.20

LAST INSTALMENT 7/1 Win Bet

ON HIS OWN 22/1 Each Way

The main issues are well documented. I feel
LAST INSTALMENT has every chance and has
one of the best two profiles. My each way bet
ON HIS OWN is obviously a hard case to make.
I think he is a crazy sort of price and although
many argue he fails trends it is not necessarily
the case. I think these 2 have serious chances.

 

Cheltenham 3.20

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

7/4 Bobs Worth, 5/2 Silviniaco Conti, 13/2 Last Instalment
8/1 Triolo D´alene, 14/1 The Giant Bolster 16/1 On His Own
25/1 Lord Windermere, 33/1 Teaforthree
40/1 Lyreen Legend, 50/1 Katenko, 66/1 Cloudy Too
66/1 Knockara Beau, 100/1 Houblon Des Obeaux.

* The Blue Riband event of the festival
* Lets get rid of the No Hopers
* Horses aged 11 and over have not won this race since 1969.
* KNOCKARA BEAU is too old and not good enough
* KATENKO and CLOUDY TOO are outclassed
* HOUBLON DES OBEAUX is not good enough
* TEAFORTHREE is out of his depth

* TRIOLO D´ALENE won the Hennessy last time out
* Bobs Worth did that recently but I can’t have him
* Bobs Worth was a Grade 1 Festival winner
* TRIOLO D´ALENE has never run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* His 2 previous runs here were heavy defeats
* TRIOLO D´ALENE is rated only 158 far too low

* LORD WINDERMERE and LYREEN LEGEND are connected
* They were 1st and 2nd in last years RSA Chase at the festival

* LYREEN LEGEND was 2nd in last years RSA Chase
* It would worry me he has won just 1 of 8 Chases
* He is rated lower than any recent Gold Cup winner
* The last 23 winners had this in common
* They had a Racing Post Rating of 155 + last time out
* LYREEN LEGEND only managed a rating of 154
* After 18 career starts 154 is his highest Racing Post Rating
* Every other horse has bettered that rating before
* That amongst other things must rule him out

* LORD WINDERMERE has a similar profile and problem
* He is rated lower than any recent Gold Cup winner
* The last 23 winners had this in common
* They had a Racing Post Rating of 155 + last time out
* After 15 career starts 157 is his highest Racing Post Rating
* Almost every other horse has bettered that rating before
* LORD WINDERMERE only managed a rating of 157

Now if LYREEN LEGEND or LORD WINDERMERE win this
race at a big price it will be down to the fact the course
ground or time of year brings them alive but I suspect it
was a very poor RSA Chase last year which was openly
said at the time and these two dominated a bad renewal
and it is hard to make a case for them when they have a
set of numbers that just look so far behind the standard.

SILVINIACO CONTI

I don’t doubt he has enough ability to win this race but
I feel he is too short around 100/30 for a horse that may
not stay. When he fell in last year’s race some argue he
wasn’t beaten but I doubt he would have stayed on well
enough to win. I question his stamina. I don’t like horses
that are undersized like him. He isn’t a big horse and he
is not proven yet in a field as big as this. Statistical he’s
fine but I don’t like his size and question his stamina as
he is taking on some big Irish improvers with substance.

BOBS WORTH

Little doubt he’s top class and won this last year and was
always going to have a good profile this year. He has got
a massive chance but not really for me. I wouldn’t want to
ask him to win this again. It was a gruelling race last year
and he was in trouble at one stage before staying on late.
On this ground he could find himself in more trouble and
having to come from off the pace. We can’t be sure last
years race has not left it’s mark. Last season he recorded
Racing Post Ratings of 167 174 and 181 yet this year from
two runs he has clocked just 142 and 163 and there is the
possibility he won’t recapture last years form. He is still
the most likely winner but at the price I am against him.
He touched 10/1 in running last year and on fast ground
he could easily do the same this year. I just don’t like the
short price when he will be carrying battle scars this year.

 

THE GIANT BOLSTER

* THE GIANT BOLSTER now has 19 previous chase runs
* Recent Gold Cup winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 8 9 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 Chases
* He is now out of range of the ideal profile
* 16 of the last 17 winners had 13 or fewer Chase runs
* He was 4th last year and 2nd in 2012 though
* He Loves the track and has plenty of class
* I did see him as a potential each way bet at 16/1
* He wants fast ground and a small field
* He should love the ground but the field size worries me
* 14 runners is not as small as I’d like
* I think he is at the limit of his stamina
* He has won over 3m 1f 100 yds before
* His Sire has not yet bred a winner winning over further
* You couldn’t rule him out but maybe just falls short

ON HIS OWN

* This horse is a 10 year old
* Horses aged 10 or more have a 1-93 record since 1993
* It’s not the best of records but don’t worry about that
* He is a late foal and actually not quite 10 yet in real terms
* ON HIS OWN does have only 12 career starts though
* 16 of the last 17 winners had 13 or fewer Chase runs
* That goes a log way to compensating for his age
* He also didn’t start racing until he was almost 6 years old
* I have mentioned I think he will win the Grand National
* He has every right to run here after a brilliant last win
* His last 2 runs show significant improvement
* There is a case that he jumps a bit right handed
* He has won left handed three times before though
* The track is an open question mark
* Ignore his poor run here back in 2011 over 4m
* He had no chance in that race and it’s irrelevant
* He was 4th in a Neptune Hurdle which is encouraging
* Ability wise I think he has everything he needs to win
* Just not sure about whether he can deliver here or not

LAST INSTALMENT

* He is a lightly raced improver
* He won the Irish Hennessy last time
* He has won 5 of his 6 Chase runs so far
* Recent Gold Cup winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 8 9 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 Chases
* LAST INSTALMENT has 6 runs and I quite like that
* One of his problem is No form at Cheltenham
* That is a disadvantage he has to overcome
* 13 of the last 16 winners placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
* The other is the ground as most of his form’s on soft
* Said to have fragile tendons it would be a worry
* That said the new course is slower than the old course
* He has a very appealing profile and the potential to win

 

Selections

LAST INSTALMENT 7/1 Win Bet

ON HIS OWN 22/1 Each Way

For Live best odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2014-03-14/cheltenham/15-20/betting/

 

 

 

FREE £10 No Lose Bet On The Gold Cup
AND a £50 FREE BET From Betfair

( only for those with no Betfair account yet unfortunately )

If you were to force me to ditch all my bookie accounts bar one
then the one I would choose to hold on to would be Betfair.

Key reasons would be

- Typically higher odds than bookies on their Exchange
– Ability to lay as well as back
– Ability to lock in profits by trading

This offer applies to their newish sportsbook section
( a bit like a traditional bookmaker )

What I would do if I were you is use the offer on the sportsbook
today but then longer term move to using their Exchange
for the reasons outlined above.

See full details of how to bag this offer at this link

Betfair Offer

 

 

Our Cheltenham Deal

Our deal page is still live at

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

Whist being Cheltenham titled it is actually a full month of Full Membership at half price. The 14 day zero strings refund gives you plenty of time to test and kick the tryes fo the full memebr’s service.

I will keep it live till after the weekend then it is gone again till next year.

 

 

 

 

Saturday Day Pass

 

After the highs of Cheltenham we are back to the daily grind of finding edge for our clients in normal racing. For those of you who really only have time to ponder racing on a Saturday note that our dip in dip out as you choose Saturday Day Pass is now open.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass/

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

The Derby 2013

The Derby     Epsom  4.00

I am posting up my thoughts on the Derby today
more so out of public demand than because it
is my favoured betting option today.

Full members I have actually pointed to an 8/1
shot riding at Newcastle this evening planning  to follow
on from yesterday’s NEEDY MCCREDIE 9/1 advised winner.

Returning to this afternoon however all eyes will be on The Derby

The Derby this year is about whether the best horse in
the race DAWN APPROACH stays 12f. Far too much has
been written already about this and nobody will know
until after the race. My pennys worth doesnt matter but
I do have my doubts about him staying and have been
persuaded by the arguments against him and given he
is a very short price I’d rather take something each way
against him. You can be wrong about the stamina issue
yet still come out ahead. I wasnt keen on MARS having
just one run this year in the Guineas. FESTIVE CHEER’s
the Aidan O’Brien 3rd string so not for me. CHOPIN has
not got enough positive points much as he isn’t easy to
read. LIBERTARIAN wouldn’t be first choice but that’s a
bit down to Racing snobbery. OCOVANGO needs to be
respected but he is drawn one and it will be difficult to
win from that draw. I respect RULER OF THE WORLD a
lot but I prefer his stablemate BATTLE OF MARENGO a
horse that would be Top rated were it not for the short
priced favourite. He looks the natural each way bet.

I have had to come to terms with advising a bet in
the Derby with Cheekpieces but Joseph O’Brien is
riding and has rejected the other Coolmore horses
and times and training patterns change and I can
live with it. The favourite may win but I am more
persuaded by the argument against him staying
than those that say he will. I dont think he is one
of those bet to nothings each way but BATTLE
OF MARENGO looks to me like the second best
horse and a bet each way.

Selection

BATTLE OF MARENGO

Each Way

Top bookmaker price is 7/1 bet365William Hillstan james

But consider stongly as well the Derby special offers from
victor chandler and Ladbrokes who will return as free bet cash
up to £50 and £25 respectively if Dawn Approach wins.
That is quite attractive extra insurance.

These are offers open to all customers not just new ones.
See their sites for full terms.

Current Prices
victor chandler  13/2
Ladbrokes 6/1

Best Wishes
Guy

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip 2013

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

The final day of Cheltenham and the main highlight
is the Gold Cup. The rain is going to make things far
harder today but we have given the last 3 Gold Cup
winners and I will try to improve that proud record.

Heavy rain is due around Lunchtime that is likely
to turn the ground soft and maybe Heavy so that’s
the one thing to remember and account for.

 

Cheltenham 3.20

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

Racing Post Odds

11/4 Bobs Worth, 7/2 Sir Des Champs
9/2 Silviniaco Conti, 11/2 Long Run, 14/1 Cape Tribulation
14/1 Captain Chris, 14/1 The Giant Bolster
66/1 Monbeg Dude, 100/1 Wayward Prince.

The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y

This is the real highlight of the meeting and a race
where I trust my angles. We have a brilliant record
in this race. All past messages for years are posted
on the message board. I looked at recent Gold Cup
messages and it struck me how well we had done.

Service Bets in the Cheltenham Gold Cup

2012 – Synchronised WON 10/1
2011 – Long Run WON 5/1
2010 – Imperial Commander WON 12/1
2009 – Albertas Run Lost 14/1
2008 – Denman WON 9/4
2007 – No Bet
2006 – Hedgehunter 2nd 20/1 – Follow The Past 3rd 9/1

We have tipped the last 3 winners of this race and at
10/1 5/1 and 12/1 although I did have a saver in 2011
and a Split Stake in 2010. This only shows that I have
developed a good understanding about just what it
takes to win a race like this. Lets hope this continues.

* We need to get rid of the horses with little chance
* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race
* MONBEG DUDE is rated far too low
* WAYWARD PRINCE is also too low

 

Racing Post Ratings on Bad Ground

This is a complete experiment. I have never
done it before. I have looked at recent form in
the last couple of years with the aim of trying
to provide a table of “best performances” that
were given in the conditions we have today.

* These scores are Racing Post Ratings only
* I demanded the Following Conditions
* The Ground must be described as one of these
* Either Soft or Heavy or the Going Stick under 7.0
* This is only in Chases and not hurdles
* It must be in the past two seasons

Top Rated Scores

1) LONG RUN 180
2) SILVIANO CONTI 175
3) BOBS WORTH 174
3) LONG RUN 174
5) SILVINIACO CONTI 173
5) LONG RUN 173
7) LONG RUN 171
8) CAPTAIN CHRIS 170
8) CAPTAIN CHRIS 170
10) SIRE DES CHAMPS 169
11) SIRE DES CHAMPS 168
11) THE GIANT BOLSTER 168
11) SILVINIACO CONTI 168
14) CAPE TRIBULATION 166
15) THE GIANT BOLSTER 166

* This is unscientific for the following reasons
* Describing the Ground is problematic
* I have no Going Stick readings for Ireland
* Some horses have had more opportunities
* Lighter raced horses don’t get as many chances

I am looking solely at Chases in the past two years
that were run on soft or heavy ground or at a track
when the Going Stick was under 7.0. The scores in
this table are Racing post Ratings with this criteria.

* LONG RUN has the 1st 3rd 5th 7th best ratings
* I would see him in a favourable light because of it

* Back to a more Traditional style of analysis
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* I wouldn’t want a horse with fewer runs that season
* BOBS WORTH is the only horse with just 1 run
* He is also the shortest priced horse as well
* BOBS WORTH has a lot to prove with just 1 run
* I cant help feeling missing his prep runs an issue

* BOBS WORTH has 5 Chase runs and just 1 run this season
* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* The horse with 5 Chase starts was Long Run in 2011
* However Long Run had 4 extra French Chase runs
* BOBS WORTH would be the least experienced winner

* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* BOBS WORTH only has 1 run – a serious worry
* He isn’t a big horse and that wont help
* Not when he is under pressure and lacking a run

* 16 of the last 17 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
* The rest of the field have between 8 and 16 runs
* I would see that as acceptable

* CAPE TRIBULATION doesn’t interest me
* Exposed horses like him rarely win this race
* His win last time didn’t impress me and I tipped him
* He beat 12 year old absent 680 days into second
* The 3rd horse didn’t stay and 4th was out of form
* He is smaller than ideal and likes smaller fields
* It will be slightly disappointing if he wins

* CAPTAIN CHRIS has to prove he will stay
* There is a big doubt about that
* I looked at his Sires record in Listed and Graded Class
* None of his offspring won over this far in that class
* He is also better going right handed

* THE GIANT BOLSTER was 2nd last year
* Granted similar conditions the race should suit him
* He is Exposed now though with 23 National Hunt starts
* This race rarely goes to a horse with so many runs
* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* THE GIANT BOLSTER now has 14 Chase runs
* Only 1 of the last 16 winners had 14 or more chase runs
* He has 8 runs in Grade 1-2 before and has yet to win
* You would expect something to beat him

* SILVINIACO CONTI passes all the main angles
* There is no doubt he has the class to win
* It will come down to if he stays and handles the track
* He isn’t a big horse and I don’t like that
* The small field should help him
* I’d have liked stronger evidence he likes Cheltenham
* SILVINIACO CONTI has shown he stays 3m 1f twice
* That was at Wetherby and Aintree
* I looked at the course record times for those races
* I also looked at the Racing Post Standard times
* It takes around 24-30 seconds longer to run this trip
* The testing uphill finish could be too much for him

Shortlist

LONG RUN
SIR DES CHAMPS

I have two on my shortlist. The only thing that does
worry me is that BOBS WORTH whilst statistically a
lot weaker than this pair may turn out to be special.
There is a fair chance that he is and I wont be that
surprised if he can win despite a vulnerable profile.

* LONG RUN has 24 runs and 16 came in Chases
* That’s on the high side and it is a worry
* That does however include his younger French form
* However if we ignore his runs in France as a 3yo-4yo
* He then doesn’t look as exposed as before
* In England he has 12 runs all of these Chases

* He does meet some improving younger horses
* He should run his race and he should go close
* He dominates my Racing Post Ratings table above
* An important factor will be his Cheek pieces
* His stable are on record as saying they benefit him
* The 1999 winner had headgear so it has been done
* LONG RUN could be the professional bet here

* SIR DES CHAMPS comes out very well
* 8 Chase starts is not far off perfect
* He is 2-2 at Cheltenham Festivals
* There are factors against him
* SIR DES CHAMPS is only 8th best on Official Ratings
* That seems ridiculous but there are higher rated horses

* SIR DES CHAMPS is the stand out profile here
* He is the statistical choice on my angles
* He does need to prove he stays this trip
* He needs to do that on the ground as well

* I looked at the record of his Sire
* I looked at his offspring running under these conditions
* Running over 3m+ in soft ground in Listed-Graded class
* There was a 4-10 record which is very encouraging
* That said all 4 winners were 3m 1f or shorter
* None as yet have done it over this far

 

Selection

LONG RUN 5/1 Each Way

I think this has to be the bet each way. Had it been
faster ground I would have bet Sir Des Champs as
the best profile horse. I could and nearly did have
a saver on him but surely LONG RUN is the better
bet each way. This allows you some safety even if
BOBS WORTH or SIR DES CHAMPS turn out to be
special as well they might. LONG RUN has placed
and Won in the Gold Cup. Obviously he is not the
same horse as he was when winning this in 2011
but does he need to be ? Look at his figures and
there is only roughly half a stones regression and
his Racing Post Ratings on bad ground hold up as
well as any. There are several doubtful stayers in
this field and a few that wouldn’t want this ground.

5/1 at 1/4 odds is available at bet365
( and would be applicable for their 4/1 free bet bonus )

Same odds at betfredWilliam Hillstan jamesbet victor
All mentioned above off BOG prices to protect you if it happens to drift out later.

Good luck today whether following me or doing your own thing.

Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk


PS Join for a full month of pro service while the Cheltenham Deal remains live.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

It will dissappear after the weekend. Take The Price.

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 15, 2013

Tags: , , ,

Haydock Horse Racing Tip

A good day yesterday with 15 races profiled for full members
and highlighted horses finishing  L W W W L L L P L W L W W W W

8 winners from 15 races examined ain’t too bad.

Today full members have multiple races profiled for them
I did find one Full bet ( my strongest grade ) for them in the 4pm race.

Here on the free blog I have a top of message bet for you ( my second strongest grade )

Full membership is instantaneous so you can get in for todays action right away
if you want it.

here is the link ==> Betting Advice

 

Todays Free Horse Racing Tip

Haydock  4.05

100/30 Ohio Gold, 9/2 Cloudy Too, 11/2 Achimota
11/2 Yurok, 6/1 Furrows, 7/1 Tenor Nivernais
7/1 The Chazer, 14/1 Makethe Mostofnow.

* This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 2m 4f
* OHIO GOLD is the shortest priced horse
* Bothers me he has less runs this year than anything
* I dont feel two runs is enough for a horse with 15 runs
* Not for a horse thats coming up in distance
* Not for a horse from a Novice Chase
* The 7 past winners had 3 4 4 5 3 5 9 chase runs
* The 7 past winners had 6 4 4 5 3 3 3 runs this season
* OHIO GOLD only has 2 Chase runs less than all winners
* Every past winner came from a 2m 4f race or further.
* OHIO GOLD doesnt do that either
* I looked at horses from Novice Chases
* Those that stepped up in trip strzggled
* They only won when very lightly raced
* Those with 13 + runs had a 1-78 record
* OHIO GOLD – I think he comes out badly
* TENOR NIVERNAIS comes from a Novice Chase
* He is a bit too exposed to be doing that
* THE CHAZER also comes from a Novice Chase
* He looks too exposed to go in again
* Especially against lighter raced improvers
* MAKETHE MOSTOFNOW isnt running well enough

Shortlist

* CLOUDY TOO – His last win gets him shortlisted
* I’d have prefered him a bit lighter raced though

* ACHIMOTA comes from a 2m Novice Chase
* We know all past winners came from 2m 4f or more
* He isnt like any winner of this race
* There are winners elsewhere just like him though
* FURROWS has the same problem
* With 2 Chase starts I’d have liked 1 more

* YUROK comes from a 3m Novice Chase
* Thats a good profile 2 past winners did that
* The 2006-2007 winners of this did just that
* Both had just 3 Chase starts like YUROK
* His trainer won this in 2011
* That winner had 3 chase runs

Selection

YUROK 6/1 Win Bet
ACHIMOTA 5/1 Saver
Bet them both on Betfair  I suggest
( saver: small bet staked to win back the stake on the main bet if the saver wins )

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on February 16, 2013

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Kempton Horse Racing Tip

A nice winner last week for readers here.

Lingfield has been abandoned but I suppose it
is a bonus that Kempton has survived. That is
the only English card today. For paying clients
I have previewed the first six races there only
leaving the finale alone a race that looks a bit
too dangerous.

I have three staked bets for them today.
A short price – A Medium price – And a Big Price

Here on the free horse betting blog I will stick up
for you the medium price option.

Kempton   1.45

9/4 Glastonberry, 11/4 Climaxfortackle, 4/1 Big Sylv
8/1 Amosite, 8/1 Chambles, 10/1 Zing Wing
12/1 Dancing Welcome, 25/1 Ishiamiracle.

This is a fillies handicap over 7f. Not too many of
these races are run at this time of year and that
makes it harder to judge things like age. So far
none of the races went to horses aged 7 or over
so both DANCING WELCOME and  AMOSITE
are unlike any winners. I would not trust such a
stat based on a small sample size but they did
not attract me anyway. ZING WING doesnt feel
safe with his absence. ISHIAMIRACLE is out of
form. I see a strong case for GLASTONBERRY
who’s been in fine form but she has very little in
the way of backclassbackclass and she has to
give weight to horses who have achieved more
than her. CHAMBLES isn’t out of this with fair
excuses last time. BIG SYLV’s profile is good
enough to consider and CLIMAXFORTACKLE
also comes out well and has a good recent run.

Conclusion

Given the prices I originally thought  there was a case to make
about overlooking Glastonberry for an alternative
each way bet but a non runner has ruined the each way frame of the race.
Much depends on how BIG SYLV
copes down in trip and on her first run on a right
handed track and how CLIMAXFORTACKLE gets
on going up in distance. I just prefer the latter.

Selection

* Win CLIMAXFORTACKLE 3/1 victor chandlerstan james

Posted under horse racing tips