EPSOM DERBY 4.00

Investec Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies)
(CLASS 1) (3yo)1m4f10y

5/2 Jan Vermeer, 5/1 Workforce, 6/1 Midas Touch
6/1 Rewilding, 7/1 Bullet Train, 12/1 Azmeel, 16/1 Al Zir
20/1 Coordinated Cut, 33/1 Ted Spread, 66/1 Buzzword
66/1 Hot Prospect, 150/1 At First Sight.

I dont have a strong Derby opinion this year. There are
probably half a dozen that can win. AL ZIR doesn’t look
classy enough. I don’t fancy BULLET TRAIN and think
he will fail . WORKFORCE and COORDINATED CUT are
trying to overcome the statistic that shows no horse was
beaten in the Dante and won this. MIDAS TOUCH might
be the one but if you bet him you have to assume that he
is better than the favourite and that Johnny Murtagh has
chosen wrongly. REWILDING could go well but he is not
easy to assess and has no form on ground this fast. The
race doesn’t offer me anything. AZMEEL could go well at
a reasonable price but I suspect he is more a Group 2 type.
My gut feeling is REWILDING or WORKFORCE will win.
I have never believed in the Dante statistic and no race
has changed and deteriorated so badly in recent years
than this one. I will go with REWILDING despite faster
ground than he is proven on but if you fancy something
more don’t let me put you off. I don’t have a strong view.

As I type 6/1 is available about Rewilding at bet365 and Ladbrokes.

Full current market odds at link below

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-06-05/epsom-downs/16-00/betting/

Posted under Major Horse Races

Lingfield 2.10 - ALFIE TUPPER 7/2 Coral -  betfred - bet365

ALFIE TUPPER is still well handicapped and is in a
good spell of form having ran himself fit now and I
think he can win the 2.10pm. He has had excuses for
two very close defeats. He doesnt have many to beat
in this race and whilst everything at this track can be
vulnerable to fast finishers and how the race is run I
cant see this horse not going very close today and
win lose or draw I will be surprised if he is beaten by
more than a length and with luck in running can win.

LINGFIELD 2.10

Bet African Nations Cup - Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 1m2f

3/1 Alfie Tupper, 5/1 Atacama Sunrise, 6/1 Bavarica
7/1 Rapid City, 8/1 Jeer , 10/1 Charlie Smirke Bosamcliff
16/1 Society Venue, 25/1 Alqaahir 25/1 Maybe I Will
25/1 Whodunit.

This is a 10f Handicap and we have 350 of these races
at this time of year. Picking out a few poor profiles I’d
oppose MAYBE I WILL as a mare absent 230 days. I
oppose WHODUNIT from 7f with 1 run since March.
BAVARICA doesnt appeal as no exposed mare aged
7 or more defied a months absence in the 350 races. I
think RAPID CITY is a poor bet with 1 run since June.
SOCIETY VENUE looks underraced to me and I dont
want him from a career high mark. ALQAAHIR would
not be my first choice aged 8 absent 40 days. There
were a few winners like that but almost all had far less
weight and almost all had more backclass as well. It’s
hard to rate BOSAMCLIFF as she has been hurdling
but I dont really want a mare from hurdles and she is
respected but avoided. I looked at 4 year old fillies in
350 races like ATACAMA SUNRISE. I found 8 fillies
like her that  came from 10f handicaps but those who
ran within the past fortnight had a 0-50 record and it
was only those from a longer break that won. That’s
possibly a statistical blip but its a 0-50 record and I
dont see ATACAMA SUNRISE as safe because of
it. I looked at 4 year olds like CHARLIE SMIRKE who
came from Maidens with 9 or more career starts and
found a 2-66 record. To be fair to him both winners
were male like him and came from 8f maidens which
when applied turned into a 2-13 record so he’s fine.

CHARLIE SMIRKE - I have found 2 similar winners

JEER - I give him a chance as he is well handicapped

ALFIE TUPPER - Strong Profile

SELECTION

ALFIE TUPPER  Win Bet

Posted under horse racing tips

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York 2.40

PERFECT SHOT  9/1

£25 Each Way

Blog Comment:
9/1 was available earlier for Full Members of my Private Betting Service
Best price now is 7/1  Coral, bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill

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YORK 2.40

10% Cashback At Coral Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85)  2m2f

11/4 Theola, 9/2 Mykingdomforahorse, 6/1 Murcar
8/1 Danzatrice, 9/1 According To Pete, Perfect Shot
10/1 Mith Hill, 11/1 Mr Crystal, 14/1 Sphinx
20/1 King In Waiting, 20/1 Royal Entourage
25/1 Ruff Diamond, 40/1 Indian Pipe Dream, Daltaban.

* This is a Handicap over 18f for 0-83 rated horses
* October has seen around 97 handicaps like this over 16f-18f
* ROYAL ENTOURAGE wont stay
* He is also weak aged 4 and up from a 12f race
* Since 1994 4 year olds from 12f races were 0-67
* INDIAN PIPE DREAM shouldnt be fit enough
* Not aged 7 with 1 poor run since April
* He comes with far too much risk and should fail
* DALTABAN has been absent far too long
* None of the 97 winners were as old as SPHINX
* He is 11 years old and is underraced this year
* No horse aged 9 + won losing by as far as him last time
* He shouldnt be anywhere near his peak and is rejected
* Exposed horses losing by 10 + lengths last time struggled
* They had a poor 6-201 record
* When racing within 2 weeks they were 1-94
* MR CRYSTAL fails that
* Look at exposed male horses aged under 8
* When beaten 10 + lengths last time they were 1-112
* MR CRYSTAL fails that and wont be fit
* Not with 1 run since July
* ACCORDING TO PETE shouldnt be fit enough
* Not aged 8 and just 1 run since January 2009
* RUFF DIAMOND is hard to read from Novice Chases
* I think he has a poor profile and looks hard to fancy
* He also looks a very unlikely stayer
* KING IN WAITING has had plenty of problems
* He found some from last time out
* That was in a low grade and this is a much better race
* He is likely to be outclassed by something
* DANZATRICE is a 7 year old mare
* Only 1 Mare aged 6 or more managed to win
* Only 5 exposed mares won in the 96 races
* 4 of those had under 8st weight
* DANZATRICE has over a stone more than that
* I think you want a younger unexposed horse
* DANZATRICE wouldnt be my choice aged 7
* After all she is on a mark she has not won off before
* When racing above Class 5 she has a 0-19 record
* DANZATRICE needs a Career best to win this
* I think she will prove vulnerable to youngsters
* MITH HILL is an 8 year old
* He too is vulnerable to lighter raced horses
* He has a lot of weight for a horse aged 8
* He has a mind of his own and looks unsafe
* Not well handicapped and hard to trust
* MURCAR is 4 and comes from 14f
* Horses aged 4 coming from 14f or less didnt impress
* When having 9 + runs like him they were 2-69
* None had anywhere near the weight he has
* 4yo Males like MURCAR doing this were 1-49
* Can not rule him out but he’s unimpressive statistically

SHORTLIST

* MYKINGDOMFORAHORSE is a 3yo from a 14f race
* 3 Year old males doing that were fine
* Those with 9 + runs like him had a 3-21 record
* All 3 winners had ran in slightly better grade than him
* That said a recent run helps him
* THEOLA has a nice profile as a 3yo filly
* I have nothing strong against her
* I would have liked her to have ran 1-2 more times
* I would have liked a more recent run
* Other than that she has a good chance
* PERFECT SHOT has an excellent profile
* Unexposed 3 year old with form over 2m
* He looked to find the ground too fast last time
* As long as its not too firm he is a huge runner
* The ground at York looks far more suitable

SELECTION = PERFECT SHOT

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www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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Posted under horse racing tips

Mathematician 429

No Account Bet

1 Selection

Newmarket 5.05

RUN FOR EDE’S   2/1

Just one selection on a Rain hit Saturday.

There is one bit of 9/4 (bet365) but RUN FOR EDE’S is 2/1 with most bookmakers.

I have done something in the Stewards Cup but have no strong view there after Goodwood has changed the ground. Other than that there are Five Previews in the message. Happy enough with these races but there is only one horse I fancy enough to make a selection and thats RUN FOR EDE’S. Not a brilliant price but she only has 6 opponents. The weather is spoling the summer at the moment and when its lashing down as it is today all we can do is keep mistakes down to a minimum and be selective. Thats why I havent had an account bet today. RUN FOR EDE’S ran really well last week on a Grade 1 track in a much better race. I dont see any of her rivals achieving that level. In a weird twist of handicapping because she’s been underrated for two recent wins and Sir Boss has been hit hard for two recent wins RUN FOR EDE’S gets quite a bit of weight from Sir Boss when really her last two runs suggest that she ought to be conceeding weight not recieving it. I think that makes her look solid. She is my only bet today and I just want to get one winner on a day the weather throws all kinds of danger at us. There will be the planned Sunday Message tomorrow.

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T O D A Y ‘ S    R A C I N G

One selection yesterday. DEAUVILLE FLYER won having
landed a big evening gamble. I suppose it all depends on what sort of price you got. He was 6/1 in plenty of places yesterday and 5/1 for most of the day but the money came in form him late and he has been returned a ridiculous 9/4. Once he was in a dule with Crocus Rose I was always confident he would stay better. Nice way to end a difficult July. Cant do any harm to the confidence and we start a Fresh month today.

Unusually a 2.30 message today on a Saturday. I know from
experience just how difficult todays cards are.
I felt my best chances came later on and with a poor weather forecast there is much more sense in sending a later message and allowing a bit more time to play some videos.

NEWMARKET 5.05

SPORTINGBET HANDICAP (CLASS 4)(4yo+ 0-85) 1m4f

2/1 Run For Ede’s, 9/4 Sir Boss, 5/1 Mubrook,  10/1 Clear Reef, 16/1 Force Group, 25/1 Rowan Rio, 33/1 Coeur De Lionne.

SELECTION -  RUN FOR EDE’S

The market has chosen SIR BOSS as the favourite ahead of
RUN FOR EDE’S and I dont really see why thats justified. I
fully respect SIR BOSS as an improving 4 year old and I dont have any strong objections to him at all but he has won his last 2 races which were only 0-58 and 0-77 races and his last run in that 0-77 was only a Class 5 handicap and having been raised 11lbs by the handicapper he now finds himself topweight. His last 2 handicap wins were hardly in quality races much as he did it well. Consider the fact RUN FOR EDE’S has just also won two handicaps. They were in 0-85 and 0-77 handicaps no worse at all than SIR BOSS and RUN FOR EDE’S has also ran a very decent 4th in a Class 2 handicap. RUN FOR EDE’S was a  strong 4th in a 0-104 handicap at Ascot. It was a C2 Heritage handicap. 12 of her 15 opponents would not even be allowed to run in this race. RUN FOR EDE’S was beaten only 1.75 lengths from 4lbs out of the handicap. Whilst SIR BOSS has seen his rating jump from 68 to 74 and now 85 its highly interesting that RUN FOR EDE’S having achieved a lot more
has seen her rating only go from 70 to 74. She has only gone up 4lbs for winning two handicaps and running 4th in a 0-104 handicap. Bizzarely that means SIR BOSS has to concede 9lbs and a jockeys allowance to RUN FOR EDE’S who surely has achieved much more. RUN FOR EDE’S surely has to be better value around 3/1 notwithstanding SIR BOSS may have more improvement. I think at these weights RUN FOR EDE’S has to be the better option. I respect some of the others but she must be hard to beat. MUBROOK has a chance and he is fine  statistically as a lightly raced 4 year old. He hasnt won a race though and he wasnt handicapped instead just running on merit as a 3 year old and thats left me thinking that he may well be rated accurately and may not be thrown in off his current mark. Neither FORCE GROUP or ROWAN RIO strike me as horses about to win. CLEAR REEF is another big runner with the ground coming right but he is both exposed and coming down over 2f in distance and horses that did that didnt score that well. He is a danger though but I dont see a better option than RUN FOR EDE’S

SELECTION -  RUN FOR EDE’S

Posted under horse racing tips

Carlisle 9.35 - AMIR PASHA 14/1 Tote Win Bet
Carlisle 9.35 - UNAWATUNA (Saver 4/1) bet365

In the last race at Carlisle we have an emigma of a race.
I have brilliant trends in the race and they are demanding I bet here but the best horse UNAWATUNA is weak statistically and throws up a real dilemma. UNAWATUNA is the best horse and should win
yet I cant find a similar horse win a similar race and convincing myself to commit to her is like convincing Osama Bn Laden to eat a Pork Chop.

With AMIR PASHA high on my list in the race I have decided to have a saver on UNAWATUNA and buy her out of the race. AMIR PASHA is the only other horse I could bet.

CARLISLE 9.35

CFM RADIO ESCALA LIVE HERE TONIGHT
MAIDEN HANDICAP(CLASS 6)(4yo+ 0-65) 2m1f52y

11/4 Beauchamp Wonder, 11/4 Saxona, 9/2 Unawatuna,
13/2 Trempari, 12/1 Amir Pasha, 12/1 Roisin’s Prince,
16/1 Dawn Wind, 20/1 Uptown Lad, Countrywide Sun,
25/1 Dance Sauvage, 33/1 Art Gallery, 33/1 Sea Cove.

* This is a 17f Handicap for 0-62 rated horses
* July has seen 127 similar races between 2m and 19f
* There has been 550 handicaps between 2m and 19f
* Thats 550 handicaps in Class 5 and 6 at Any time of year
* These are every low grade 2m + staying handicap in the season
* Look at Horses from Maidens in these races
* They won just 9 of the 550 races
* When they came from maidens over 13f or shorter they flopped
* These types had a 1-132 record
* That horse ( Three Eagles) doesnt really count anyway
* Between his maiden run he ran in a Novice Hurdle.
* BEAUCHAMP WONDER has to be avoided on that stat
* She is a Filly from a 10f maiden with just 3 runs
* TREMPARI has to go from a 12f maiden
* SAXONA has to go as a mare from a 12f maiden
* SEA COVE wont be fit as a 9yo mare with 2 runs this year
* She has a 0-26 career record and looks outclassed
* ART GALLERY has a 0-25 record and looks poor
* DANCE SAUVAGE hasnt won in 27 races
* He was beaten 69 lengths last time out
* He looks a very poor animal who shouldnt trouble the judge
* COUNTRYWIDE SUN has ran just twice since 2008
* Both runs were heavy defeats
* He doesnt look in good enough form
* UPTOWN LAD finished well beaten last time out
* Horses like him beaten 10 + lengths last time did win races
* Those aged 9 or more were just 1-81
* UPTOWN LAD is a 10 year old and best known as a chaser
* He looks an unlikely winner
* I cant see a case for DAWN WIND
* Not as a 4yo filly with a miserable record
* ROISIN´S PRINCE has ran twice at long trips
* He placed over 2 miles at Southwell in January
* That offers hope he will stay but its not conclusive
* His sire (Bold Fact) is 0-61 with all runners at 10f and more
* Thats a massive worry for as horse racing over 17f +
* The added worry is he is a small horse on a stiff track
* He has twice ran poorly over hurdles recently
* It does require a leap of faith to bet him over this far

SHORTLIST

AMIR PASHA
UNAWATUNA

* AMIR PASHA stared his 3yo career for W Swinburn
* He lost his first 6 races and went hurdling
* Since then he has twice come back to the flat
* At Musselburgh in April he was 3rd in a 0-70 handicap
* If he repeats that he could win
* He hasnt ran too badly since over hurdles
* I like that he is unexposed and in a very weak race
* AMIR PASHA has a chance here
* UNAWATUNA offers a real dilemma
* On the Positive side she has the best form in the race
* She stays all day and has achieved more in 7 runs than anything here
* She is lightly raced and has more improvement than anything
* She looks simply better than her awful rivals
* On the downside there are serious statistical worries
* She is a filly with just 1 run this year and a break of 57 days
* Fillies aged 4 with 1 run that year were 0-16 in the 127 races
* Few were fancied though but its a worry
* The lighter raced you are the more you can forgive
* UNAWATUNA offers a genuine dilemma in such a poor race

SELECTION - UNAWATUNA 14/1 Tote

SAVER - AMIR PASHA bet365

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips