A nice winner here last Saturday with Golden Desert who won at 16/1 SP.

See http://www.horse-betting-blog.co.uk/horse-racing-tips/newmarket-betting-advice/

You would have made extra cash profit of course if you took the early odds 18/1 advised here.

On to today.  Can we make it two in a row?

Probably not.  I feel we have value on our side but a 6/1 shot even if say 9/2 true odds is more likely to lose than win on the day.

Bet such horses 1000 times however and you should come out ahead in the long run.

 

N e w m a r k e t  3.35

11/4 Jameel, 11/2 Art History, 6/1 Topolski
13/2 Butler, 8/1 Incendo, 8/1 Warlu Way, 9/1 Greylami
16/1 The Betchworth Kid, 20/1 Red Anthem
25/1 Big Creek, 25/1 Itlaaq.

* This is a 12f Handicap for 0-100 rated horses
* There are 53 similar races at this time of year
* JAMEEL is very lightly raced
* We had 2 winners like him from Maidens
* Both came from 12f and he comes from 10f
* Neither had 1-2 runs that season
* I looked at 3 year olds from 10f races
* Those like JAMEEL with under 7 runs were 0-23
* Those like JAMEEL with under 7 that year were 0-22
* JAMEEL does have flaws in his profile
* TOPOLSKI had a superb season over hurdles last year
* He won all 3 and now returns back to the flat
* Long absence and I am far from convinced about him
* Horses like him score poorly and this is a hot race
* His connections say he is only 90% fit
* ITLAAQ and BIG CREEK didnt do enough last time
* RED ANTHEM may need more runs
* THE BETCHWORTH KID has been absent too long
* No exposed horse won without 7 + runs that season
* GREYLAMI fails that and looks short of runs
* INCENDO also fails that with 6 runs
* INCENDO is exposed and hasnt run in 2 weeks
* Similar horses struggled with a 2-91 record
* Both had more backclass and came from better races
* INCENDO didnt really do much for me

P o s s i b l e s

* BUTLER is 4 and well beaten over 12f last time
* WARNES WAY has the same problem
* Neither come out well on their latest starts
* I looked at horses aged 4 well beaten last time
* These horses score badly but there is hope there
* Last years winner of this overcame a similar problem
* If either bounce back they could be a threat
* Results show not many 4 year olds like them have
* Last years winner had a recent race
* Both horses have been absent over a Month
* I looked at horses aged 4 absent over a Month
* Those with 9 + runs had a 1-40 record
* That horse won down from the 14f Ebor
* BUTLER – WARNES WAY just come up short

S e l e c t i o n

* ART HISTORY is 3 and won at 10f last time
* I found 2 similar winners who were a close match
* ART HISTORY is a positive
* ART HISTORY Each Way 6/1 looks a solid bet

6/1 at Coral -  Ladbrokes – betfred – bet365

Full live odds can be seen at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-10-01/newmarket/15-35/betting/

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This Saturday I have a sample from the analysis section of the Full Member Service

NB This is not a full account bet

DONCASTER  3:10

ToteSPORT NOVEMBER HANDICAP (C2) (3yo+)  1m4f

5/1 Electrolyser, 11/2 Presvis, 8/1 The Betchworth Kid, 10/1 Menwaal, 12/1 First Avenue,  Magicalmysterytour, 14/1 Tastahil, 16/1 Night Crescendo, 20/1 Group Captain,  Tropical Strait,  Young Mick, 25/1 Ajaan,  Hits Only Vic,  Mull Of Dubai, 33/1 Carte Diamond,  CelticSpirit,  Cold Quest,  Ladies Best, 50/1 Acropolis,  Big Robert,  Dunaskin, Greek Envoy,  Wicked Daze.

I have some detailed trends in the November Handicap. I will go through this field quickly and finish off with some horses that are strong statistically and that make any shortlist. I dont want the Topweight PRESVIS in this race. I think his weight is a problem. He fails a serious number of trends in the race not least as a lighter
raced older horse and He is up in trip as well and he simply is not the type  that has won this race and win lose or draw on my angles based on the last 20 renewals of this race PRESVIS had a very poor profile in my view. NIGHT CRESCENDO only fails one of my trends in that no exposed horse or indeed any 4 year old won last
time out and whilst there will be many horses with weaker profiles I didnt want to give him  the benefit of the doubt. YOUNG MICK is in exactly the same boat failing some similar angles. MENWAAL doesnt have the correct preperation for me and has plenty against him and I felt MAGICALMYSTERYTOUR also had a bad profile  and failed several important angles. There are many of these that just dont have good profiles. You will see from the list of trends that its very important to come into this race in form and running well. So many of these dont do that and I would include the following -

BIG ROBERT – CARTE DIAMOND – TROPICAL STRAIT
GREEK ENVOY- GROUP CAPTAIN – HITS ONLY VIC
AJAAN – LADIES BEST – MULL OF DUBAI -  CELTIC SPIRIT
WICKED DAZE

COLD QUEST has a horrible profile. Both ACROPOLIS and
DUNASKIN are  too old. TASTAHIL is just the wrong kind
of 4 year old in this just like the favourite is. Its very hard to judge THE BETCHWORTH KID as he has an unusual profile but I cant find a horse that won this or a similar race at this time of year and my impression is that if a 3 year old was going to come back from a 14f race it would be both lighter raced than he is and would have run better in that race. That said I do think THE BETCHWORTH KID is one of the more interesting runners and I think he is one of the best 3 or 4 runners in the race I feel the same about FIRST AVENUE as well.  FIRST AVENUE  came out quite similar to the 2007 and 1992 winners and the only
angle he fails is a very forgiveable one. Whether he has the resolutionor not I dont know and I dont like cheekpieces on my bet in a race such as this.

STRONGEST PROFILE

ELECTROLYSER

I think this horse has the best profile. He has just 4 runs but he is a very similar type to 2004 winner  CARTE DIAMOND  who also had 4 runs and interestingly came from the same Leicester 3 year old handicap as ELECTROLYSER does. Trip and Ground are fine and I think he has a great chance off a light weight.

Current Best price at time of blog post 4/1 at CentreBet and Ladbrokes

Posted under horse racing tips