Ascot Horse Racing Tip

Ascot 3.45

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-09-08/ascot/15-45/betting/

* This is a 7f Handicap in Class 2
* Looked at all similar races at this time of year
* IMPERIAL GUEST won last time out
* All the winners that won having done that were younger
* No 6yo followed up a win so not convinced
* I looked at 3 year olds in these races
* Those that had Group Class form were 0-59
* ARNOLD LANE fails that
* BANNOCK also fails that
* CASTLES IN THE AIR I see as underraced this year
* EXCELLENT GUEST is also technically underraced as well
* Both of those exposed types would be better with 1-2 more runs
* Horses from Listed races had a 0-43 record
* SIRIUS PROSPECT fails that and has plenty to prove
* SMARTY SOCKS also fails that and is an 8yo
* Horses aged 8 or more struggle in these races
* SMARTY SOCKS did win this with more weight last year
* Because of that I would see him as more positive than negative
* PRIMAEVAL is riSky with a 78 day absence
* No horses with 13 + career starts won absent 7 + weeks
* GLOBAL VILLAGE also fails that
* FIELD OF DREAM – I’d like more recent encouragement
* BERTIEWHITTLE looks the one to me
* I looked at exposed 4 year olds
* Coming from a 7f Handicap
* Form in Class 2 before
* Running within 2 weeks
* Beaten under 3 lengths last time
* Similar horses had a 2-7 record in these races
* That included the 2002 winner of this race

Selection

BERTIEWHITTLE Each Way at 9/1
bet365victor chandlerWilliam Hillbetfred

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Racing Tip For Chepstow

A good effort  last week in the Hennessy with each way advised Planet Of Sound coming 2nd.   It was particulary sweet for those who followed the highlighted race offer from betfred as

#1 – Their best odds guarantee paid out the 14/1 Starting price not the 12/1 early price

#2 – The offer on that race returned the win bet stake if your horse finished second so you would have been left with just a winning place bet.

See Hennessy Gold Cup

On to today and something for Chepstow.

Interesting one this as it demonstrates the use of each way at shortish odds.

Most mug punters only consider each way if the place returns a net profit on a bet. eg 5/1 plus or more is a typical mug punter cut off point for each way.

Mathematically however such an idea is not correct.

Short odds horses can be great value each way in the right circumstances.

You need to think long term over many bets not just “on the day” however.

More detail on that thinking at a future point perhaps.

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C h e p s t o w  1.30

2/1 Curtain Razer, 9/4 Knock A Hand, 7/2 Rojo Vivo
7/1 Diamond Sweeper, 14/1 Gores Island
16/1 Caulfields Venture, 33/1 Finnegan Paddy
33/1 The Bear Trap, Wheres Wal, Chesil Beach Boy
40/1 Le Chasse Spleen, Young Jim, Caught Inthe Light
66/1 Malin Head, 100/1 Waywood Princess
200/1 Radmores Sam Evans.

* This is a 2m 4f Novice Hurdle
* ROJO VIVO comes from a Bumper last year
* Not a good enough profile to go with him
* The 5yo’s doing that best had 1-2 runs and he has 4
* Not a negative but there are better profiles
* DIAMOND SWEEPER – Unsafe despite the above profile
* He hasn’t yet achieved enough
* GORES ISLAND – Very weak profile
* CAULFIELDS VENTURE – Not enough I like
* CURTAIN RAZER didnt impress me statistically
* I looked at 5 year olds from Novice Hurdles
* One career run and One that season
* There were 3 winners with that profile
* These 3 winners all came from 2m races though
* Those however from 17f or more were 0-70
* Could be a statistical blip but he fails that
* CURTAIN RAZER is opposed

Selection

KNOCK A HAND Each Way 3/1 +

* KNOCK A HAND looks the safest choice
* Unorthodox profile aged 6 winning a maiden hurdle
* I found 2 horses with his profile and one of them won
* KNOCK A HAND has a better profile than the rest

When KNOCK A HAND won last time over 2m 4f on
Heavy ground it was his sires first National Hunt winner
on soft or heavy ground over 2m 4f. I am hoping that’s
something he can repeat. If he can’t then horses with a
weaker profile like Curtain Razer and Rojo Vivo will go
on and win. If he can repeat that and he does truly get
the trip on the ground then he has the strongest chance.
In a nicely framed race he looks the percentage call e/w.

* KNOCK A HAND 10/3  BoyleSports William Hill  Each Way is my selection

Nb Want to play it differently yourself the above is a potential leg of an each way double. Full members have been advised of a suitable second horse for that. As ever we are hampered with not wanting to annoy full members by puting too much up here on the free blog.

For more info on the full service click here Betting Advice

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Derby Betting Tip

The Derby Epson 4.00

9/4 Carlton House, 4/1 Recital, 11/2 Pour Moi, 13/2 Seville
10/1 Native Khan, 16/1 Ocean War, 16/1 Vadamar
25/1 Masked Marvel, 25/1 Treasure Beach, Memphis Tennessee
100/1 Pisco Sour, Marhaba Malyoon, 500/1 Castlemorris King.

My quick thoughts on the Derby.

The Derby always gets confusing as you read and hear positives and negatives for everything.
Throw in the injury scare for the favourite – Two Aidan O’Brien horses hard to split and a
French horse thats carrying serious confidence.
Just for the record there is a reasonably strong draw bias here based on the following.

* Epsom has 25 races since 2005
* Thats 25 races with between 10 and 14 runners like today
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 had a poor 1-70 record
* Horses drawn 13 or more were 0-18
* Horses drawn 4-12 are the best places
* Horses drawn 5-11 come out best
* Horses drawn 5-11 won 22 of the 25 races

He may win and I was impressed with his win at York but I am opposing
CARLTON HOUSE on stamina doubts.
I dont want a horse from a Mile like NATIVE KHAN especially without a
good draw. RECITAL throws up a dilemma with his ungainly
action but he will be a different horse today. I think this will come down to
RECITAL or POUR MOI one being the saver.

Selection – RECITAL 11/2 Ladbrokes blue square bet365
Saver – POUR MOI  you can get 13/2 Coral and VC

NB betfred are running a very good concession on this race
of offering losing stakes back if Carlton House wins the Derby.
That’s a reasonably generous perk and may swing me to stake there
possibly during the shows as their early odds are a bit tight on the above.

A note to each way backers amongst you bet365 and William Hill are offering 1/3 for a place.

Posted under horse racing tips

Racing At Kempton

Today’s Best Bet

KEMPTON 1.20

VIA GALILEI 7/1

My best profile horse (Wayward Prince) doesnt run
so what may have been a two bet day is reduced to a
single bet. I am relaxed about that. I probably havent
got to grips with enough races today partly down to
the weather and the cards and there is not much I like.

I do like VIA GALILEI’s chance a lot though and he’s
well worth a decent bet at 7/1 or better. I have some
negatives amongst the fancied dangers. I can not see
many horses beating him all things equal. His rating
on the Flat which has been as high as 107 demands he
must have a very lenient handicap mark over hurdles
off 116 especially when he has already won twice. He
could easily bump into something that beats him but
I can not see many dangers. He’s a good price. These
races are frightening but full of horses that can’t win
so they are never as competetive as they look. He is
interesting as he has a crucial blend of having enough
experience to win but being lightly raced enough to be
progressive and capable of improving. I cant see a bet
that I like better today. There may be something for
the cherry pickers below but I think this is one tough
Saturday. A Day to watch some high class racing and
just the one bet at a decent price to try and win well.

8/1 with VC and betfred
15/2 with Hills PaddyPower bet365 Tote
7/1 Generally elsewhere

KEMPTON 1.20

William Hill Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) 2m

9/2 Skint, 5/1 Samsons Son, 6/1 Ski Sunday, 7/1 Via Galilei
10/1 Aather, 10/1 Babilu, 14/1 Simply Blue, 14/1 Souter Point
14/1 William Hogarth, 14/1 Zanir, 20/1 Big Robert
20/1 Johnny Mullen, 25/1 Alhaque, 25/1 Karky Schultz 50/1 Tobago Bay, 50/1 Top Mark.

This is a competetive 2m Handicap Hurdle. This race has lots of varied profiles.
I wasn’t convinced about SKINT. He comes from a 2m 5f Novice Hurdle.
There are winners that have done that but none had just 3 runs like him and
none were as young  as he is aged 5 and none had his weight. I think you have
to be careful with the horses coming from Novice Hurdles when they have a
long absence. I found only 3 winners like this in 190 of these 2m Handicaps
and None had under 7 career starts.
Those with fewer than 7 starts were 0-35. All 3 winners that won first time out from
a Novice Hurdle dropped from 2m 4f or longer and those that raced at 16f or 17f last
time were 0-37 and that puts me off some of the lighter raced Novice Hurdlers in this race.
That means SAMSONS SON and SOUTER POINT both look vulnerable and don’t have strong profiles.
TOP MARK is hard to fancy not doing enough last time.
TOBAGO BAY and ALHAQUE look outclassed.
WILLIAM HOGARTH is unsafe coming from a Novice Handicap Chase.
If you take horse with long absences that had raced13 or more times before you
find  a 1-79 record . ZANIR has that to overcome and a high weight  on his seasonal
debut and I thing thats asking too much. I dont see a strong case for KARKY SCHULTZ.
There has been some strong money for SKI SUNDAY but he doesn’t look right.
The record of seasonal debutants like him carrying 11st 3lbs or more is poor and
none were 6 year olds like him and I couldnt match him to a winner.
BIG ROBERT will probably find this too much with 3 career hurdle runs.
There are only 3 I can shortlist.

SHORTLIST

I would make BABILU a positive. She may be a mare but she
won last time and is well raced this year and with a light weight  it counts for plenty.
AATHER Looks well worth a place on the shortlist.
I respect VIA GALILEI who won a handicap first time  out this year.
I thought this trio looked best but given the choice it has to be VIA GALILEI.
What swings it for me is his rating.
This is a horse that was consistently rated over 100 on the flat having come from
Jim Bolger to Gary Moore.
He was a top class handicapper on the Flat. That makes a Hurdle rating of 116
just too lenient. It much have more ability than that. Ideally lightly raced.
Winning a good trial race last time. The horse has been handicapped after 3 runs.
Then he won a Maiden hurdle and a handicap on his last two starts and gets in
here off a very decent mark. He’s too good a horse not to fancy off 116 and
with some of main dangers statistically weak he looks well worth a bet.
It doesnt surprise me he has a Tote Gold Trophy entry.
He won’t get in that race without a couple of wins but one of them might well
come today and he would be my best bet at the meeting.

SELECTION

VIA GALILEI 7/1 Win Bet

Posted under horse racing tips

Newmarket Longshot

NEWMARKET 1.50

victor chandler Challenge Stakes (Group 2)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 7f

2/1 Delegator, 5/1 Red Jazz, 10/1 Mabait, 10/1 Main Aim
12/1 Cat Junior, 12/1 Dream Eater, 16/1 High Standing
20/1 Duff, 20/1 Himalya, Shakespearean, 25/1 Harrison George 25/1 Sir Gerry, 33/1 Golden Stream, 50/1 Blue Angel.

* The Challenge Stakes is a Group race over 7f
* There are 20 renewals since 1990
* 18 of the 20 winners had between 9 and 14 career runs
* Horses with 13 or more starts struggled
* The only ones that won had Grade 1 form before
* Male 3 year olds are just 1-37 with 13 or more runs
* No 3 year old has won this down in distance

SHORTLIST

* DELEGATOR has 1 run this season
* A Few past winners had 2 runs but none had 1
* Thats the biggest problem he faces
* BLUE ANGEL has a surprisingly good profile
* She is very similar to the 2007 winner
* She is  close to 2 other winners
* In a race of shocks she could be interesting
* 3 Year Old fillies with 7-12 career starts
* Finishing 1-2-3-4 last time
* At least 6 runs this season
* These horses had a 4-6 record in this race
* The last 2 that won (2007 and 2000) were 20/1
* BLUE ANGEL is a possibly shock  winner.

It looks a ridiculous shout to go with BLUE ANGLE who
is 50/1 and more on Betfair and multiple bookmakers but the last 10 renewals have
seen horses win a 20/1 20/1 20/1 20/1 and 16/1 and they
were impossible to find as well so she may be able to nick
a place. I’m not keen on any of the alternatives so with a
risk of making myself look stupid I will go with her.

Definately more chance of losing with this bet than winning with it but the name of the game is long term edge and at 50/1 I sniff some value.
SELECTION

BLUE ANGEL 50/1 + Each  Way bet365betfredLadbrokess james

Posted under horse racing tips