I don’t think I should have an account bet. Tempted
a lot by the thought of turning an unimpressive week
into a winning one but bottom line is there is not much
point wasting good money before Cheltenham. It has
been a really strong start to the year. I am planning a
Top class Cheltenham where I will be Spot on. Just
having some small personal bets today for some interest.

For the free blog I will list just one of them.

If interested in the other races covered join the full service
under the Cheltenham Deal

Here is the cheap price link:

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
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NEWBURY 3.10

Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m4f

3/1 Can´t Buy Time, 7/2 Pasco, 6/1 Battlecry, 8/1 Au Courant, 8/1 Panjo Bere,
9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Our Vic10/1 Regal Heights, 33/1 Stan.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m4f
* There are 5 renewals of this race
* There has only been 14 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 14 races in Listed or Graded class

The problem here is 14 races like this is not really enough
to get a complete statistical fixture. What this means from
a practicle point of view in this race is whether we can be confident enough to oppose horses with One or Two runs this season. They score badly but over half the runners in this race have just 1-2 runs this season so just how safe it will be to oppose them is open to doubt.
In this particular race all 5 winners had at least 3 runs this season and most had more. In the 14 similar handicaps horses with 1-2 runs that season only had a 1-41 record. If you take horses that  had never run in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 race before you find that with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a 0-41 record.

None also had an absence of or more than a month (0-35). That is a problem for CAN´T BUY TIME with just 2 runs in this season and a 9 week break. BIG FELLA THANKS also has no form in Grade 1-2 races and comes out questionably as a horse with just 2 runs this season.
Both AU COURANT and STAN come out badly with an absence and just 2 runs this season. I cant have OUR VIC who drops from 3m 4f just 14 days ago and these statistics show him vulnerable.

* There has been 419 handicap chases between 19f - 22f
* Thats 419 races at any time of year in Class 2 or better
* Horses from 3m 3f or more last time won just 10 races
* None were aged 11 or more and OUR VIC is 12
* Those running between Febuary and April were 0-71
* Those running within 2 weeks were 0-37

I just see OUR VIC having too much to do. I’ve found a
winner like REGAL HEIGHTS aged  9 and exposed with
2 runs this year as that winner like him had Grade 1 form
so I see him in a better light but he still looks underraced this year.
If you look at horses in the 14 similar races at this time of year with an
absence of 7 weeks or more there is a very troublesome 1-69 record.
We know that STAN, AU COURANT and CAN´T BUY TIME  have
that against them but so to does PASCO with a 79 day absence.
I see PANJO BERE as having a good profile and although he’s
not well handicapped he is crucially well raced this year
and looks shortlistable. I also like BATTLECRY a lot. It
has to be considered that Trevor Hemmings has him in
two Cheltenham handicaps and whether that raises the
doubt that this is only a prep race or not I wouldnt know
but He is a talented horse. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance
Chase a couple of years ago and he comes here as Fitter
in each run he has had this year and probably well treated
as well. Against many horses with absences and many in
the race potentially underraced this year BATTLECRY is
a really generous price for a horse with few obvious flaws.
He is very one paced and could be beaten by something
who can quicken better but he looks rock solid to me and
I will be surprised if he doesnt place.

SELECTION

BATTLECRY Each Way 7/1

* I think BATTLECRY is a place banker
* I think his most likely position is 2nd
* If I was having a saver it would be on Pasco

** Blog comment: Price dropped a touch now
13/2 available at William Hill  VC betfred

Posted under horse racing tips

No Account Bet

I’m not having an account bet today as I do
not like anything strongly enough. Every Bet
will now be an account bet but that does not
mean we should have bets when they’re not
strong enough and I’ve been here before on
this particular Saturday. The card at Lingfield
doesnt offer much so the only option is soft
and sloppy ground and the National Hunt.

It will take a day or two to settle down into a
rhythm and get the timing right but whilst its
a positive long term change we shouldnt be
falling over ourselves to have bets when the
racing doesnt throw us much.

I have looked at quite a few races for Full Members.
Here is one of them for the free blog.

HAYDOCK 1.45

4/1 Garleton, Huka Lodge , 7/1 Sherwoods Folly, Supreme Keano
8/1 Never So Blue 10/1 Jaunty Journey, Malko De Beaumont 14/1
Boris The Blade 14/1 Himalayan Trail.

This is a 3m 4f Handicap Chase for horses rated 0-129.
There have been 68 similar races at this time of year.
None of the 68 winners were 13 years old or more like HUKA LODGE.
I dont fancy him for the following reasons.

* Since 1994 there has been 605 similar 3m 4f handicaps
* Thats any time of year and between 3m 3f and 3m 5f
* Horses aged 13 or more won 10 of the 605 races
* Only 1 horse that age defied a months absence

HUKA LODGE is vulnerable as a 13yo. No horse as old as
HIMALAYAN TRAIL defied such an absence. I dont like
MALKO DE BEAUMONT’s chance. BORIS THE BLADE
doesnt look good enough. I think the weight could beat
JAUNTY JOURNEY an inexperience horse who hasnt yet
completed in a handicap. SHERWOODS FOLLY has a
chance but a tough weight and I didnt think he would win.

GARLETON - Strong Profile and likely winner
SUPREME KEANO - Great chance if he can jump well
NEVER SO BLUE - Good chance - Local owners - Has to stay

SELECTION - GARLETON  9/2 Sky
SAVER - NEVER SO BLUE 17/2 Sky & VC

Posted under horse racing tips

Best Bet today is ICELANDIC 4/1 in the Doncaster 2.40.
He won the race last year and I think he can do it again in
an easier renewal full of negatives. Going with him only as
a suggestion today. I did think about a Full Bet on him but
the stable are just coming out of a virus and havent had a
winner since April. Even with that worry I still feel he is
going to win this race but I would have liked to have seen
a few more runners and winners from the stable. I thought
about an each way bet but I think he is a better win bet. I
did think about splitting a bet with two win bets and the
double with PEPE SIMO in the first at Wincanton but he
is odds on now and I would only have done that if he’d
have been bigger than evens. In the end on what is a hard
Saturday without any all weather support I think the best
thing to do is stay with ICELANDIC as a mention. He is
the one horse in the race that I could bet. Think he wins.

Doncaster 2.40

ICELANDIC 4/1

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T O D A Y ‘S   R A C I N G

DONCASTER 2.40

Best Odds Guaranteed At Totesport.com Wentworth Stakes
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f

3/1 Sir Gerry, 4/1 Icelandic, 5/1 Prescription, 6/1 Able Master 8/1 Desert Phantom,
10/1 Festoso, 12/1 Fullandby, 20/1 Arthur´s Edge, 20/1 Crystal Moments,
25/1 Lovely Thought, 33/1 Saxford 50/1 Protector, 500/1 Vanadium.

* This is a Listed race over 6f
* Doncaster has had 16 renewals of this race
* There’s been 35 similar races elsewhere at this time of year
* VANADIUM cant win at the weights
* I see the following horses as weak statistically
* All past winners were aged 7 or lower
* PROTECTOR is older than any past winner
* All past winners had at least 3 runs that season
* I would ignore all horses that havent had that
* DESERT PHANTOM fails that absent 398 days
* His trainer states he is very burly and will need the run
* He wont be placed if he is as unfit as he suggests
* SAXFORD fails that and looks badly underraced
* SIR GERRY also fails this with 1 run this year
* SIR GERRY also has a 178 day absence to overcome
* His trainer says he will come on a lot for the run
* SIR GERRY has also downgraded stables this year
* I dont see him as fit enough to win
* Horses from 5f races have struggled
* Only 1 past winner came from 7f as well
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time were 0-67
* FESTOSO fails that and looks opposable
* Hard to win a Listed race on the back of a poor last run
* I dont see an older filly like her overcoming that
* 3 year olds have the worst record
* Those aged 3 with 7 + career runs were 1-60
* ABLE MASTER fails that and has 14 runs
* Thats quite an exposed 3 year old
* ABLE MASTER also has to come down in trip
* Only 1 past winner dropped in trip to win this
* No 3 year old like him managed it in any similar races
* CRYSTAL MOMENTS has the same problem
* She is another 3yo coming down in distance
* She looks too exposed to be doing that
* LOVELY THOUGHT fails the same statistic
* She is not going to win an all aged Listed race
* Not coming from a Class 5 handicap for 3 year olds

* SHORTLIST

* FULLANDBY - PRESCRIPTION - ICELANDIC

* I am confident enough that one of these should win
* FULLANDBY and PRESCRIPTION come from handicaps
* They come from Class 3 handicaps
* I looked at the 35 similar races to this
* There were 8 winners that came from handicaps
* All 8 winners came from Class 2 handicaps
* Those that came from handicaps in lower grades were 0-40
* This suggests that this pair could fall short of whats required
* I think you can give them a better chance than that though
* FULLANDBY won easily just 4 days ago and is very fit
* FULLANDBY has ran in 8 Listed -Group Class races before
* All he has to show for it is one third place
* He usually gets found out at this level
* I think this is his best chance of winning one
* I think FULLANDBY will place
* I think he is one of the best place only bets today
* PRESCRIPTION also comes from a Class 3 handicap
* Statistically thats not really enough
* If you take the 35 similar Listed class sprints
* All 35 winners had all ran in at least Class 2 before
* PRESCRIPTON has not done that yet
* Every horse in this race has done that except two
* PRESCRIPTION and Arthurs Edge have yet to do that
* PRESCRIPTION is respected as he finally gets her ground
* Purely on her profile she ought to find 1-2 too good

SELECTION

ICELANDIC - Win Bet
FULLANDBY - Saver or place bet

ICELANDIC won this last year and is solid again. His
trainer has been savaged by the Virus all year and has
given a note of caution because of this. He states …..

“The year has been a disaster. We are probably
over the worst but whether Icelandic is 100 per cent I
don’t know. Soft ground will be in his favour”

That looks the only obstacle to him winning. He won
this easily last year from the same stall.  On Ratings
this is a much weaker race. This race on average official
ratings is 8lbs weaker than last years race.
This is a horse that hasnt been fit or right all year.
His last run at Ascot was much better than it looked.
He wasnt fancied. He was facing a 55 day break and its hard
for a 7 year old to win a Group Race when facing that absence.
The race he ran in last time was a much better class race than
this where every horse was rated 101 or more. He ran much better
than it looked staying on without being given a hard race
and not having the run of the race at all. He should be at
his peak today. Older horses have an excellent record in
this race. Horses like him aged 7 are 3-7 in this contest.
I think ICELANDIC will peak today and win this again.
I see FULLANDBY as the danger and its up to you if
you want saver on him around 7/1 or want a place bet
on him instead as a saver. I expect ICELANDIC to win.

Posted under horse racing tips

A longer than usual Saturday blog post today.

I do have an Account Bet today in the 5.15 however
I have held that back as full member only.

What you have here are a lot of stats and thoughts on many other races.
This is typical of the extra supplementary info clients get daily from me.
Many clients ignore it and wait for Account Bets.
Others use it as extra info in their own personal betting decission making process.

Selections noted treat as “If you forced a fiver into my hand and gave me a free bet”

It is only the full Account Bets however I get heavily stuck into myself.

T O D A Y ‘S   R A C I N G

Heavy Rain today will probably change the ground
at several tracks and that looks the most important
issue today. I have a few National Hunt things to say
but there isnt much over the Jumps and after that it
is a look at a few races on the Flat.

A I N T R E E

The 1.05 is a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle over 2 Miles. There
has been 47 of these races at this time of year. What you
have to avoid in these races is exposed horses. Interesting
that 46 of the 47 winners were lightly raced wikth under 21 career starts.
I would rule out European Dream - Front Rank and Premier Dane.
ST BOREAS HAWK is impossible to get
a grip on absent 2 seasons and more so I’m neutral about him.
No 4yo had the weight INDIAN GROOM has and managed
to win. THUMBS UP is a 4yo from a Novice Hurdle. Two
winners did that and they had 5-6 runs and he’s just 4 runs.
Almost forgivable but a big weight wont help. None of the 47 went to
seasonal debutants from Novice handicaps so I oppose SUNSETTEN
who may need the race according to his trainer.
MAGELLAN STRAITS is also opposed. I didnt
like the profile of HARRY TRICKER. I doubt STELLINO
or AMAZING KING is about to win a Class 2 race. Given
the choice I See four potential winners.  THUMBS UP has
chances. SIR BOREAS HAWK can win if fit. ZANIR and
NAMPOUR are also potential winners. Final choice would
be THUMBS UP each way at 5/1.

The 2.50pm is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 3 Miles.
You will be in the dark with several seasonal debutants
in the race. The best profile for me could be the recent
winner DUNBRODY HOUSE. I looked at all similar 3m
Novice Handicaps. Horses that won a Novice handicap
Hurdle in the last month had a 9-19 record and take the
ones that had 11st 2lbs or less and that improves to a
7-10 record. Those aged 5 like him were 1-1. Those
who came from 2m 4f as he does were 3-5. This is a
step up in class though and thats my main worry. It
may be best to go with a Place Only bet.

C H E P S T O W

The 1.20pm  is a weak renewal of the Persian War Hurdle.
There is no ideal type which would be a horse with multiple
runs this year. We havent got that. This is a Graded Hurdle
and I would have to oppose AITEEN THIRTYTHREE as
a horse from a Bumper with just 1 career run. No similar
race went to a horse like that. I would prefer a horse from
a Grade 1 hurdle like REVE DE SIVOLA much as it was only
a 4yo Grade 1 Hurdle. REVE DE SIVOLA is my choice.

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NEWBURY 1.30

Hildon EBF Maiden Stakes (Div 1) (CLASS 4) (2yo) 1m

7/2 Sir Pitt, 9/2 Latansaa, Total Command, 13/2 Aultcharn,
13/2 Multames, 7/1 State Fair, 11/1 Sea Of Heartbreak,
11/1 Tappanappa, 20/1 Boston Blue, 20/1 Sweet Secret,
25/1 Green Moon, 25/1 Mount Athos, 40/1 Baoli, 40/1
Goldtrek,  40/1 Oak Leaves, 66/1 Big Talk, Green Army,
100/1 First Post.

Starts off with a Big field Maiden for 2 year olds over a
Mile.  I want to oppose some of the fancied runners in a
race I can only guess in. STATE FAIR has had  4 runs
already and hasnt won. This is a Grade 1 track and if you
have not won by your fourth race you must have some
limitations. Very few Grade 1 track maidens go to a horse
so experienced. In fact those doing just this and stepping
up in trip were just 1-36 and none that exposed won this
race. I think his draw in stall 3 is a problem too as the last
19 races here with 9 + runners show only one horse drawn
1-2-3 winning. I would be inclined to go for a lighter raced
fancied runner as an alternative. Male horses with 1 run that
come from maidens over 7f when beaten more than 10 lengths
in that race in the last month have a 2-175 record.
Thats not good and  both TOTAL COMMAND  and
AULTCHARN have that to overcome so I dont see
them as good enough options. Marcus Treggoning hasnt
had an unraced 2yo win at a Grade 1 track at this time
of year so LATANSAA has issues as well. If I had to be
with any of these it would be SIR PITT. I think its a race
for a split stake bet to maximise the chances of a return.
SIR PITT is a win bet to half your stake and the other
half on STATE FAIR to place in the hope his experience
is enough to stop 3 horses beating him. I’m guessing here.

SELECTION

SIR PITT - Win Bet
STATE FAIR - Place Bet

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DONCASTER 1.50

Lincoln Restaurant Handicap (Div I) (CLASS 4)
(3yo+ 0-80) 1m2f60y

9/4 Starla Dancer, 5/1 Veiled Applause, 6/1 Baltimore Jack,
13/2 Nevada Desert, 9/1 Admiral Dundas, 12/1 Maybeme,
12/1 Northern Jem, 14/1 Middlemarch, 16/1 Agapanthus,
16/1 Punch Drunk, 16/1 Taaresh, 25/1 Desert Vision.

This is a 10f Handicap for 0-80 rated horses. There’s
been 177 similar races this time of year. If you look
at 3 year old fillies that come from 3yo handicaps
they dont have a great record. Those that ran in the
last 7 weeks had a 1-52 record in the 77 races. This
is not a strong profile and STARLA DANCER and
PUNCH DRUNK have that against them. I would
not make STARLA DANCER a negative though. It
would have been more promising if horses like her
had a better record but that sole winner in the 1-52
record did win last time and recently as she has so
she’s very similar to that winner. DESERT VISION
looks outclassd. NEVADA DESERT isnt for me. He
won a Class 6 handicap on the sand last week but this
is a much better race and horses his age score poorly
and none won coming up from such low grade races
and I wouldnt see him as a great bet.  TAARESH has
been off far too long. MIDDLEMARCH looks too
old with his absence. AGAPANTHUS is trained by
Barney Curley and you never know where you are
with him. Statistically as a 4 year old that was well
beaten last time and with just 4 runs this season he
has a weak profile and I am taking him on. Fillies
aged 3 that have not won before like MAYBEME
had a 2-73 record and those beaten 2 + lengths last
time were 0-64 so I would avoid her as well. I dont
want NORTHERN JEM. I have found horses like
him well beaten last time out and he was hampered
badly last time but he has only had 1 run since July
and I think he is underraced and may not be at his
peak. I would shortlist these

SHORTLIST

ADMIRAL DUNDAS has a strong profile and is a
potential winner if the rains stay away. I feel the
same about VEILED APPLAUSE another who is
better on faster ground. Bearing in mind the rain
thats falling I wouldnt want to be with either of
them. BALTIMORE JACK is another who has a
decent profile but concerns on the ground. With
the ground issue STARLA DANCER may well be
sticking with.

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NEWBURY 2.05

Totesport 0800 221 221 Stakes
(Registered As The Horris Hill Stakes)
(Group 3) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f

5/1 Iver Bridge Lad, 11/2 Pastoral Player, 6/1 Audacity Of Hope,
6/1 Classic Colori, Burnett, 9/1 Cadley Road, 11/1 Critical Moment,
12/1 Dubawi Phantom, 12/1 Red Badge, 14/1 Carnaby Street,
16/1 Pleasant Day, 25/1 Exceedingly Bold, 33/1 Art Excellence, 40/1 Navajo Chief.

If you look at the 20 years of results in the Horris Hill
Stakes you see that horses from 6f races have struggled.
Overall in 20 years they are 3-48 but it masks the fact
that only 1 has won since 1992. Horses from a 6f race
have never won this race with under 3 career starts as
all 12 lost and None have won from a 6f maiden. I would
see horses like this as questionable at beat and all wrong at worst.
CLASSIC COLORI is from a 6f maiden with just 1
run and no past winner did that.  PASTORAL PLAYER
has the same problem. None of the last 20 winners were
like IVER BRIDGE LAD coming up from a 5f race so I
oppose him. CARNABY STREET is rejected as well as
he comes from a 6f Maiden. No past winners came from
an 8f maiden like ART EXCELLENCE and BURNETT.
I think the best profiles come from those at bigger odds
like CRITICAL MOMENT - AUDACITY OF HOPE or
CADLEY ROAD. The issue with these three runners is
Soft ground as they all would have doubts about them
on softer ground. I feel the same way about another in
PLEASANT DAY. He may want in faster. In the end
I decided to risk RED BADGE. He has improvement to
find but he is experienced and will handle the ground.
I will go with RED BADGE at 14/1.

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DONCASTER 2.20

Coral.co.uk Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)  5f

11/2 Rulesn´regulations, 7/1 Cheveton, 10/1 Cape Vale,
10/1 The Nifty Fox, 11/1 Judge ´n Jury, 12/1 Fathom Five,
12/1 Invincible Lad, Quest For Success, 16/1 Equuleus Pictor,
16/1 Wi Dud, 20/1 Hamish Mcgonagall, 20/1 Northern Dare,
20/1 Parisian Pyramid, 20/1 Waffle, 25/1 Canadian Danehill,
25/1 Captain Gerrard, 25/1 Fullandby, 25/1 River Falcon,
33/1 Excusez Moi, 33/1 Matsunosuke.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 5f
* We have 47 similar races at this time of year
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time need opposing
* Of those that ran within 2 weeks had a 0-55 record
* Ignore all horses absent 7 weeks or more
* Oppose all exposed horses absent over a month
* Ignore all horses with under 5 runs or under 2 runs this year
* Avoid horses aged 9 or more
* Horses from 6f handicaps were fine
* They must be Class 2 handicaps (Others 1-79)
* Horses from 6f are intersting and won 16 races
* However those who were 1st or 2nd last time struggled
* They had a 0-38 record
* I’d oppose horses 1-2 over 6f last time
* I would oppose horses aged 7 or more from 6f
* Exposed horses from 5f races need 7 + runs this year

SHORTLIST

THE NIFTY FOX isnt too bad statistically but a career
high mark wont be easy to overcome. The horse behind
him last week EQUULEUS PICTOR is fine statistically.
WI DUD has a strong profile. HAMISH MCGONAGALL
looks excellent statistically.  CAPE VALE is also strong.
INVINCIBLE LAD was 3rd over 6f just 3 days ago and
may have a fitness edge. In 47 races there was just one
horse that ran within 4 days dropping back from a 6f race
and that horse came second at 10/1 coming from a class 4
handicap. I will go with him. INVINCIBLE LAD  is the
suggestion.

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NEWBURY 2.35

Totesport.com St Simon Stakes
(Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m4f5y

100/30 Harbinger, 5/1 All The Aces, 5/1 High Heeled,
5/1 Tastahil, 15/2 Chock A Block, 10/1 Enroller,
16/1 Drill Sergeant, 20/1 Illustrious Blue, Halicarnassus,
25/1 Heliodor, 25/1 Merchant Of Dubai.

The St Simon Stakes (2.35) is always a complicated race
over 12f. I am just going to follow the trends in the race
and see what I am left with. Horses dropping in distance
have struggled with a 2-50 record and no 4 year old did
that so MERCHANT OF DUBAI and ALL THE ACES
have that to overcome. TASTAHIL drops from 2 miles
and just one past winner  did that and he didnt have the
long absence  TASTAHIL has. HELIODOR doesnt look
good enough up in trip. ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE looks too
exposed and short of runs this year. HALLICARNASSUS
isnt my first choice. I would shortlist these 5 runners.

ENROLLER - DRILL SERGEANT -HARBINGER
HIGH HEELED - CHOCK A BLOCK

I Like ENROLLER’s profile a lot. Horses aged 4 that had
13 + career runs from 12 races had a 4-10 record  in this
race. The downside being they ran better than he did when
running with that profile last time. DRILL SERGEANT
has a similar profile and whilst technically a bit exposed
he comes from the Godolphin Stakes which both the 2008
and 2007 winners did and its a key trial. CHOCK A BLOCK
won that race and has to be shortlisted as does HARBINGER
but you can argue that CHOCK A BLOCK and HARBINGER
would be the least experienced 3yo Male to win. All the past winning
3 year olds had at least 5 career starts and this pair have just 4 runs.
HIGH HEELED is a 3yo filly and they’ve a brilliant record in this race.
The only problem statistically is all past winning 3yo fillies were both lighter
raced than her and had lighter seasons as well.In the end there was just one
niggling thing wrong with every runner. I decided to go with a 3yo filly with
recent form and ability to handle the going so I suggest HIGH HEELED
each way around 6/1.

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DONCASTER 2.55

Racingpost Stakes Registered As The Doncaster Stakes
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

9/4 Citrus Star, 11/4 Corporal Maddox, 100/30 Layla´s Hero, 10/1 Tropical Treat,
11/1 Tomatin, 12/1 Archers Road, 12/1 Walkingonthemoon,
20/1 Colonel Mak, 25/1 Singeur, 50/1 Al Naouwee.

The Doncaster Shield is a trappy Listed Class race for
2 year olds. I would ignore all horses that had not won
a race before. I would oppose all horses from 5f races.
No horse won with 13 or more career runs. Oppose all
horses well beaten last time. Oppose all horses with 7
or more runs if absent over a Month. This leads to a
shortlist of two horses.  I dont feel I have broken into
the race well enough. For the record the two shortlisted
are LAYLA’S  HERO - CORPORAL MADDOX. I feel
LAYLA’S HERO has stronger form and think he wins.

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NEWBURY 4.55

Watch The Jump Season On Racing UK Handicap
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100)1m2f6y

4/1 Rainbow Peak, 5/1 Namibian Orator, 11/2 Cill Rialaig,
8/1 Bab Al Salam, The Fifth Member, 12/1 The Which Doctor,
12/1 Wintercast, 14/1 William Blake, 16/1 Dr Livingstone,
16/1 King Charles, 16/1 Sohcahtoa, 16/1 Spell Caster,
20/1 The Cayterers, 25/1 Bound By Honour,
28/1 Salden Licht, 33/1 Kaolak.

* This is a 10f handicap for 0-94 rated horses
* There has been 15 renewals of this race
* There has been 53 similar Class 2 races elsewhere
* There has been 89 Class 2 and Class 3 handicaps

Horses from 8f  races havent done that well. In the 89
similar races no horse came from 8f or less with under
5 career starts and NAMIBIAN ORATOR has only 3
career runs and looks opposable. SALDEN LIGHT is
from 8f and doesnt appeal with just 2 runs this year.
SOHCAHTOA is a 3yo coming from an  8f handicap.
When these horses had 9 or more runs as he does they
were just 1-56. BAB AL SALAM was beaten too far in
3yo handicap last time. DR LIVINGSTONE comes out
wrong absent 50 days and with just 3 runs this year. I
feel the same about SPELL CASTER a filly absent 105
days. Exposed horses aged 7 like THE CAYTERERS
scored badly and need a very recent run. In last years
race WILLIAM BLAKE was beaten a long way and I
dont want him this year as no exposed 4 year old won
a similar race down in distance. Horses aged 3 that lost
by 10 + lengths last time were poor. When having 13
or more runs they were 0-39 so KAOLAK has to go.
I couldnt find a winner like THE WHICH DOCTOR
beaten so far last time. BOUND BY HONOUR fails
similar angles. The only lightly raced 4 year olds to
win were horses that won last time out and those that
didnt were 0-31 and WINTERCAST fails that and it
may not have been a good enough run last time.

SHORTLIST

KING CHARLES comes out well. Exposed 5 year olds
down in trip with a recent run had a 2-5 record and he
looks strong in several areas. If you look at exposed
5 year olds that have under 7 runs this season coming
from 10f races as THE FIFTH MEMBER does you get
a 6-19 record. Those that were 1-2-3-4-5 last time out
improved that to a 6-14 record so he has to have a big
chance. My reservation with THE FIFTH MEMBER is
a career high mark and no wins outside Class 4 or lower.
CILL RIALAIG has an excellent profile as a lightly
raced 4 year old filly winning last time out. Those like
her with under 9 runs were 2-2 in the 89 races. Back in
2005 the winner of this race (Khyber Kim) had only 2
runs and came here from a Conditions race and thats a
very similar profile to RAINBOW PEAK so he has to
be shortlistable as well. It may be significant that the
last 7 winners were aged 3-4 and unexposed which is a
pointer to RAINBOW PEAK and CILL RIALAIG off
my shortlist. In the end given the ground I decided to
chance KING CHARLES each way around 20/1.

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Posted under horse racing tips

This is a copy of a member message sent on Friday.
The advised 33/1 has now gone but 22/1 is available right now on William Hill

Out of interest Skybet are offering 6 places instead of the usual 4 on this race today.

NEWMARKET 3.40

ToteSPORT.COM CAMBRIDGESHIRE
(HERITAGE HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)(3yo+)  1m1f

1 Ante Post Bet

Cambridgeshire Handicap (Saturday)
Newmarket 3.40

GREYLAMI  28/1

£25 Each Way

33/1 Hills - VC -Boyles -Spbet -
28/1 bet365 -Tote - Blue Squareuare -888sport
25/1 Ladbrokes -Corals - s james - Sky
25/1 Paddy Power - betfred

Decided to go with a bet in the Cambridgeshire
Not statistically perfect but I have
set the bar so high statistically that I can find
fault with everything and I spent most of the
day on the race yesterday and happy that he
is overpriced and has a better chance than lots
of better fancied runners. We dont have many
bets in big handicaps and you can always expect
to lose in these races but we have earnt a crack
at the race this week so Greylami is a full bet.

SELECTION - GREYLAMI Each Way 28/1

The Cambridgeshire is a 9f Handicap for horses rated 0-109
and there is a long history to this race. The Maximum field
of 35 runners makes it a very hard race but there are a lot of good statistics in the race
to narrow the field down. All my trends in the race are given.
You may wish to apply them all yourselves and come up with a different conclusion.
I have tightened the statistics to the point where they are so tough for a horse to pass
that any horses that fail one trend would still be seen as a possible winner.
Its the horses that fail far more than one trend and are consistently coming up
short that I want to oppose. No point writing detailed paragraphs about 100/1
no hopers so I will just narrow the field down.

HORSES  FAILING MULTIPLE ANGLES

STEVIE THUNDER - BENCOOLEN -ELLEMUJIE
GRANSTON - FIGHT CLUB - TARTAN GIGHA
THE CAYTERERS - SMOKEY OAKEY -MARAJAA
KAOLAK - DOCOFTHEBAY -MOYNAHAN
SUPASEUS - GENERAL ELIOTT - KING OLAV
HOWDIGO -  ALFATHAA - NANTON

* SHAVANSky did not do enough last time
* He had a shaky profile anyway
* His recent for is just not good enough to win
* CREDIT SWAP looks weak to me
* Statistically he is not suitable
* On the go too long this season
* His 3 wins in Summer leave him badly handicapped
* Never won above Class 4 before
* He has the worst draw in stall 1
* Claimer ridden he should be well beaten
* HILLVIEW BOY doesnt have enough positives
* He has ran every month since March 2009
* Its not a traditional preperation
* There are not enough positives to overlook any flaws
* I feel the same about KAY GEE  BE as well
* As an exposed 5yo his flaws cant be forgiven
* ALAZEYAB doesnt fit the right profile
* 3 year olds  from 8f or shorter handicaps won 2 races
* Both horses won last time out (others 0-46) and he didnt
* Those 3 year olds doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* ALAZEYAB has 10 runs
* He doesnt fit with a past winner well enough
* His form in Pattern Class also weakens his profile
* So to does his inability to place last time
* He probably isnt his owners number 1 anyway
* ALAZEYAB is unlikely to be the one
* THE WHICH DOCTOR isnt out of this at big odds
* I have found 2 reasonably similar winners
* I have found 1 quite similar winners
* What bothers me is he comes from a Class 4 handicap
* No horse in the last 22 years came from this class
* Moving from a 0-82 to a 0-109 is a serious leap
* More so for a horse thats had 17 runs already
* Thats a big problem for me and I oppose him
* WANNABE KING looks wort considering
* He is a 3yo coming here with a W W W record
* He doesnt come from a Grade 1 track
* We know 19 of the 20 winners did that
* He is a 3yo from an 8f handicap
* Horses aged 3 doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* 3 year olds with a penalty were just 1-27
* He just misses out from having a strong profile
* He may find this class from his rating just too much
* Certainly has a chance though
* BRIEF ENCOUNTER isnt dead statistically
* There hasnt been a similar 3yo winner though
* None had pattern form as he does
* They all managed to place last time and he didnt
* 3 year olds  from 8f or shorter handicaps won 2 races
* Both horses won last time out (others 0-46) and he didnt
* Those 3 year olds doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* I think there are better options
* BUSHMAN fails far too many trends for me
* Only 1 winner since 1987 ran in a Group race
* He just looks the wrong type for the race
* APPLAUSE is a 3yo filly and all 21 of those lost
* She is very inexperienced and lightly raced this year
* Three runs this year may not be enough for a filly
* All 3yo winners had more runs this year and were male
* They all managed to place last time as well
* She was impressive last time finishing fast
* It was only a Fillies handicap though
* She will be well handicapped but I cant bet her
* She isnt proven statistically and no winners were similar
* SALUTE HIM fails far too many angles
* Exposed with an absence and few runs this year
* I couldnt argue a good case for him
* ALMIQDAAD is a lightly raced 3 year old
* He has just 3 runs this year
* All winning 3 year olds had more runs this year
* None had ran in Listed or Group class before either
* His Group race form is a worry
* Only 1 of the last 20 winners had Group race form
* That 1-121 record has to be a worry
* He also has a penalty and just 1-27 overcame that
* ALMIQDAAD is nearly there
* He just does not have as safe a profile as I’d want

P O S S I B L E S

* ROYAL DESTINATION was well beaten last time
* We know horses well beaten last time are awful
* However last years winner was the only horse to win
* That winner was very similar to ROYAL DESTINATION
* He was lightly raced and aged 4 as well
* He came from the same Newbury Handicap as well
* Last years winner had topweight in the Newbury race
* ROYAL DESTINATION also had topweight
* Whilst last years winner was hampered he wasnt
* ROYAL DESTINATION shaped like he needed that race
* It may be that he needs 1 more run
* His trainer has 3 in the race and he looks the 2nd string
* ROYAL DESTINATION has a chance but doubts remain
* TRYST has had 4 career starts
* That makes him less experienced than all past winners
* Horses with under 5 runs were 0-14
* The best they managed was a 3rd and 4th place
* TRYST has won just 1 race
* 19 of the last 20 winners had won more races
* All 4 year old winners had at least 2 career wins
* Another problem is so few come via non handicaps
* He is nearly there but he doesnt match a past winner
* SIRVINO has a long 84 day absence
* The 3 winners that did that were all aged 4
* They all had under 13 career runs
* SIRVINO survives that problem
* He is not dissimilar to Pasternak
* He also won this after winning the Magnet Cup
* Horses aged 4 with 9-12 runs and 10 weeks off were 2-3
* You can argue he has more runs this year than the others
* Statistically he isnt too bad but I am a bit worried
* He has risen 36lbs in the weights this season
* He started the year off 65 and thats hardly a sign of class
* I doubt many past winners started the year off 65
* Winning off 101 with a long absence isnt easy
* SIRVINO is a possible but it wont be easy
* SWOP was 3rd in last years race
* He did that from a very poor draw
* He also came from last place after half way
* SWOP deserves maximum respect
* He does not fail any of my statistics
* Few other horses in this race can say the same
* I thought he really caught the eye last time
* I would like a few lbs less weight
* We havent had a winner his age carry so much weight
* Thats a worry but he looks a serious runner
* CHARM SCHOOL has a good profile
* He looks strong statistically from the best trial race
* Some question whether 9f will be far enough
* I wouldnt criticise him on that point
* Not with his profile solid in other areas

S E L E C T I O N

GREYLAMI  25/1 - 33/1

Each Way

This has been a Cambridgeshire with very few significant
gambles and it’s clear there isnt one outstanding candidate
as the market suggests. There are several potential winners
but they all have something or other to overcome. I do like
SWOP a lot but the weight will be very hard to carry and I
didnt think he would give 15lbs to GREYLAMI.

GREYLAMI has just beaten TRYST . I think he can again.
SIRVINO is a danger but you have a good chance of beating
any horse with an absence of 12 weeks. CHARM SCHOOL
has a solid chance but he has not made any big waves in the market and doesnt come
without question marks. I’m happy GREYLAMI has a great each way chance at a big price.
He does have some issues statistically but that doesnt worry me.

Statistically I have set the bar so high that everything will fail angles in this race and I
have made them as demanding as I can. I would be happier if he has 1 less run and 1
less run this year but I can live with that. Statistically I respect him and he resembles the
1996 winner Clifton Fox closely. Whilst he comes from a conditions race and I would
prefer a handicap that did not stop another very similar type in Blue Bajan finishing
second in 2006 from the same race with a very similar profile. I dont see any strong
reasons  why he cant go very close in this race with just 8st 5lbs.

He showed a nice turn of foot last time and would have won
had he not been mugged on the line. I think you want a horse conditioned at 10f  and
every recent winner had proven form over further than 9f. He has won in a big field like
almost all recent winners. It may be something less progressive beats him but there is
no guarantee of that as most of the lighter raced horses have flaws and he is fit and
in form with a recent run and gets weight from almost anything that matters in the race
and I think he should go very well.

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CAMBRIDGESHIRE STATISTICS

* There has been 20 renewals Since 1989
* Horses from 3yo handicaps are only 1-45 in 20 years
* Horses with Less than 5 career starts 0-10
* Horses with between 5 and 12 career races are best
* Only 4 of the last 19 winners were exposed
* Those with over 21 career starts were 4-234
* Horses with 21 + runs were weak in these areas
* Exposed horses with under 7 runs that season were 0-56
* Exposed horses aged 4 (1-56) aged 5 (0-67)
* Exposed horses aged 7 or more (0-49)
* Exposed horses with a 32 + days absence are 0-40
* Exposed horses that are female are 0-27
* Exposed horses beaten 6 + lengths last time are 0-113
* Exposed horses that have penalties (1-24)
* Exposed horses not 1st or 2nd last time were 1-196
* Exposed horses coming from non handicaps are 0-41
* Exposed horses with 9st or more are 1-75
* Horses with 13 + Career races had a 6-422 record
* Horses with 13 + runs and less than 5 this year were 0-57
* Horses with 13 + runs aged 3 are 0-35
* Horses with 13 + runs aged 5 are 0-106
* Horses with 13 + runs aged 3-4-5 are just 2-305
* Those in the 2-305 record with Pattern class form 0-119
* Both that did it had very light weights 8st 2lbs or less
* Horses with 13 + runs with Group 1-Group 2 form are 0-40
* Horses with 13 + runs without a run in a month are 0-95
* Horses with 13 + runs beaten 6 + lengths last time are 0-190
* Horses with 9 or more runs this season are appalling (1-161)
* Horses with 1-2-3-4 runs this season all had under 13 runs
* None had ran in Listed or Group class before (0-45)
* 19 of the last 20 winners came from a Grade 1 track
* 5 Year Olds have a 0-119 record - but not many were fancied
* Horses aged 8 or more have never won (0-21)
* All 3 year old had a 6-190 record
* They all had between 5 and 12 career starts
* Those with less (0-9) and more (0-35)
* All 3 year old winners had at least 4 runs that year
* All 3 year old winners lacked any headgear
* No 3 year old winners had ran in Listed-Group class before (0-43)
* All 3 year old winners were Male
* All 3 year old winners with a penalty had a 1-27 record
* All 3 year old winners were 1st 2nd 3rd last time out (others 0-78)
* All 3 year old winners came from a Class 3 or Class 2 race
* 3 year olds  from 8f or shorter handicaps won 2 races
* Both horses won last time out (others 0-46)
* Those 3 year olds doing that with 7 + runs were 0-49
* 4 year old winners that had 5-12 starts had a 6-65 record
* 4 year old winners that had 13 or more runs had a weak 2-164 record
* Both were very lightweighted horses
* 4 year olds who ran in Listed or Group class before are 0-85
* All 4 year old winners lacked any headgear
* All 4 year old winners ridden by a claimer are 0-49
* All 4 year old winners not 1-2-3-4 last time are 1-25
* All 4 year old winners came from handicaps
* All 4 year old winners had at least 2 career wins
* Horses aged 6 or 7 won the race 5 times in the last 20 years
* Horses aged 6 or 7 all had at least 5 runs that season
* All 4 winners aged 6 or 7 ran within the previous 3 weeks
* Horses that ran in listed or group class before were 3-239
* None ran in Group 1 (0-38) or Group 2 before (0-20)
* Since 1993 they had a 1-199 record
* No horse with Pattern form had under 13 runs (0-55)
* None had under 5 runs this season (0-49)
* Horses aged 3-4-5 with listed or group class form are 0-171
* Horses with listed or group class form were all male
* They all came via handicaps
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were only 1-134
* Horses with pattern form with under 5 wins were 0-160
* Horses with pattern form and 9st 5lbs or more were 0-48
* Horses aged 5 or more are best running within 3 weeks
* Those that were absent over 3 weeks were 1-132
* If a horse has over a Months absence it may be a certain type
* It should have under 13 runs (others 0-95)
* It should have under 6 runs this season (others 0-82)
* It will have ran in Class 2 or no higher
* Horses absent a Monththat ran in Listed-Group class before are 0-62
* Female horses won 3 renewals since 1987
* All 3 had between 5-20 runs and aged 4 or more
* They all carried 8st 8lbs or less
* 7lbs claimers are 0-32

* Horses beaten 6 + lengths last time are appalling (1-257)
* That winner was last year though
* Horses from the 9f handicap at Goodwood recently are 0-30
* Horses that had not won in their last 6 races are just 1-198
* Horses from Listed Class last time had a 0-34 record
* Horses from Class 4 or lower had a 0-72 record
* Horses dropping in trip from 10.5f or more are 0-32
* Horses coming from a Conditions race are just 1-115
* Horses with 2-7 Career wins won 19 of the 20
* Horses with 9st 7lbs or more (1-48) underperform
* Most winners had been laid out for the race.
* Usually they had not started their season until June
* Either that or they had a 6 week break at some stage

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