Mathematician 1840

No Account Bet 

Day 2 of the Festival usually the quietest day for
bets and no account bet today.  I think we have
to be very realistic. The last 3 races on the card
are next to impossible. Tactically it makes sense
to turn these races down and use that time for a
lot of serious races tomorrow. Therefore today is
a 4 race message as only 4 races can be sorted.

I will give my Best Bet from the message which
will send a shiver down the spine of many of you.

My own personal best bet is a variation of this
bet but as this is in the “Without the favourite”
market I can’t go with it as some won’t get on.

 
Today’s Best Bet
 
Cheltenham 3.20

SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way

SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

Cheltenham Selections

Cheltenham 1.30 – FAUGHEEN 6/4

Cheltenham 2.05 – DON COSSACK 14/1 Each Way

Cheltenham 3.20 – SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way
Cheltenham 3.20 – SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

Cheltenham 4.00 – BALTHAZAR KING 6/1 Win Bet
Cheltenham 4.00 – BIG SHU 4/1 Saver Bet

 

 

Today’s Bets

 
Cheltenham 3.20

SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way

SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

 
Obviously choice is limited from 4 races. I would
not put FAUGHEEN up at a short price but I could
easily have done something with Sire De Grugy,

Cheltenham 1.30 – FAUGHEEN 6/4
Cheltenham 3.20 – SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1

I did consider the each way double
I also considered 2 win bets and an each way double

My own personal biggest bet today will be this

Cheltenham 3.20

Without The Favourite Market

SOMERSBY 12/1- 14/1 Each Way

14/1 Ladbrokes
12/1 Corals PPower Chandler
10/1 Bet365 9/1 Boyles

Obviously this is “Un-tippable” in a Novelty market
as most people would not get a bet on so Instead
I will go with the following as my best bet today.

Cheltenham 3.20

SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way

SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

Saver Bets

Just to clarify the issue with Savers. When I suggest
a saver the purpose is to make sure you break level
on the bet if the saver wins. The main selection will
be the horse to try and get the profit. The saver has
the job of recovering stakes if the main bet loses.

 

Generic Statistics
            
* No Horse Qualifies today
* Partly due to no handicap chases

 

 

Y e s t e r d a y ‘s  S u m m a r y

Very interesting day full of highs and lows with the
worst of it being two account losers. I pointed out
that this was always possible and that the winners
may come in the other races and they did. Happy
enough with a message that went P L L W W L P.

I was pleased we had the Supreme Novice winner
much as that was only as the saver. With Hindsight
I should have gone with the winner but my angles
worked out well and pleased me. Dodging Bullets
could only managed 4th but ran well enough. The
bet on TOUR DES CHAMPS 16/1 Each Way looked
good as he was bowling along nicely in front with
plenty in trouble behind. The problem is that it’s a
hard thing to make all and he paid a bit and then
dropped back. What was incredible was he came
back at them and stayed on and was only beaten
a Neck for 4th place. He was that close to Placing
that it felt unlucky. The Generic Statistics were so
disappointing in the race it was a double blow for
us. Maybe the unusually fast ground was the main
reason those angles did not work out. Overall the
race was a disaster. It got much better with JEZKI
winning the Champion Hurdle at a big price. The
horse has been on my radar for weeks it was just
annoying I couldn’t be more confident. QUEVEGA
was brilliant. We made money on the race which
was the important thing in a low key race. Sadly
jubilation turned to misery with FOXROCK despite
travelling like a really good horse he either paid
for one or two mistakes or didn’t get the trip. The
combination of both killed him. ATTAGLANCE was
a desperately unlucky second. At least we won a
bit each way but he would have won that race if
his jockey hadn’t gone for a gap that wasn’t there.

So overall a 2-0 account bet day is disappointing
but we had winners and no luck at all especially
Tour Des Champs failing to place by a neck after
making all the running and Attaglance robbed by
a bad ride. Given how hard this meeting is I think
we came out of yesterday with plenty of credit.

 

 

P R O F I L E S    &   P R E V I E W S

 

C h e l t e n h a m   1.30

Neptune Investment Management Novices4 Hurdle
(Registered As Baring Bingham Novices4 Hurdle)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m5f

9/4 Faugheen, 7/2 Red Sherlock, 6/1 Rathvinden
12/1 Lieutenant Colonel, 14/1 Ballyalton
20/1 Cup Final, 20/1 Fennell Bay, 25/1 Killala Quay,
0/1 Cocktails At Dawn, 50/1 Cole Harden, 50/1 Knock House
50/1 Shanahan4s Turn, 66/1 Creepy, 100/1 Twelve Roses
200/1 Midnight Thunder.

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f
* Look at the past 10 winners of this race
* They had achieved the following Racing Post Ratings
* Thats the best ratings achieved before they ran in this race
* 156 153 145 161 158 136 147 146 145 148
* 9 of the last 10 winners had a figure of at least 145
* Only Fiveforthree (2008) had not done that
* FENNELL BAY’s best figure is a measly 126
* FENNELL BAY is a 5 year old with 2 hurdle starts
* Miles to find on the numbers I couldn’t touch him
* BALLYALTON has only done a 136 ratings
* He is a 7 year old not the best age either
* LIEUTENANT COLONEL has achieved a 139 RPR
* That means 9 of the last 10 winners achieved more
* I like that he has improved on each performance
* He does have quite a bit to find with a few of these
* KILLALA QUAY – I don’t want a 7yo pulling up last time
* CUP FINAL is a 5yo with 2 hurdle runs
* All the big guns have more hurdle runs
* That should catch him out and he is rejected

Shortlist

* RED SHERLOCK has won all of his 6 races
* His best performance was last time and he is 2-2 here
* I do have some concerns though
* He had a hard race in heavy ground last time out
* I would be worried that took too much out of him
* He is reported to swish his tail once whipped

* RATHVINDEN was 2nd behind Red Sherlook last time
* He had an interrupted preparation before that race
* He doesn’t have much to find as he is 3lbs better off
* Looks a solid each chance with two flaws
* He is not the stable number 1. That is Faugheen
* He is also not the biggest of horses
* RATHVINDEN could easily place here

* FAUGHEEN is Willie Mullins Number 1
* He is unbeaten 3 of which were in hurdles
* Clearly a high class prospect to be considered
 
Conclusion

I think FAUGHEEN has more improvement than
Red Sherlock and is the most likely winner. It’s
tempting to go with RED SHERLOCK each way
given there are issues with FAUGHEEN not least
fluency in his jumping. You could argue a good
case for FAUGHEEN in an each way double too.
There are sorts of staking options here such as
a split stake bet with FAUGHEEN to win and the
place bet on RATHVINDEN. I think we are spoilt
for choice with staking options and much has to
depend on what sort of bets and risk you prefer.
FAUGHEEN – RED SHERLOCK – RATHVINDEN are
my 1-2-3 in that order. I will go with FAUGHEEN

Selection

FAUGHEEN

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m   2.05

RSA Chase (Grade 1) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

 5/1 Ballycasey, 6/1 Smad Place, 13/2 Morning Assembly
7/1 Carlingford Lough, 8/1 Corrin Wood, 10/1 Don Cossack
10/1 Le Bec, 10/1 Sam Winner, 12/1 O4faolains Boy
14/1 Many Clouds, 16/1 Annacotty, 20/1 Black Thunder
25/1 Just A Par, 33/1 Gevrey Chambertin, 50/1 Samingarry.

* The RSA Chase is a Grade 1 over an extended 3m
* Just a few background statistics to show a certain type
* The last 14 winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4
* The last 14 winners had these Hurdle + Chase runs
* 11 9 11 11 12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9
* They all had at least 3 runs that season as well
* Every winner since 1991 ran within 53 days
* The last 49 winners all had a run in the same calendar year
* The last 7 winners were aged 7
* Horses aged 6 have underperformed over the years
* Only 2 have won since as far back as 1978

* ANNACOTTY  is a 6 year old which is a problem
* He technically is not 6 for another month anyway
* The weights suggest he will struggle anyway
* I couldn’t have him from a Novice Handicap
* GEVREY CHAMBERTIN is 6 and far too inexperienced
* LE BEC is not 6 for another 2 months
* With a nasty absence he has to go
* SAMINGARRY is outclassed
* JUST A PAR is too inexperienced and lacks the class
* The last 14 winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4
* BALLYCASEY only has 2 Chase starts a serious worry
* I do not like that lack of inexperience over fences
* The last 14 winners had these Hurdle + Chase runs
* 11 9 11 11 12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9
* BALLYCASEY only has 6 National Hunt runs
* He just looks short  of experience to me
* 19 of the last 21 winners had at least 9 career starts
* BALLYCASEY is not for me with just 6
* There must be a chance he won’t stay anyway
* His 4 runs over 3m or more were all defeats
* Admittedly 3 were in Point to Points but it’s a worry
* SMAD PLACE has placed in a World Hurdle
* That was one of 7 times he has lost in Grade 1 races
* His 3 Chase runs were all in Non Graded races
* The last 11 winners all had form in Graded Chases
* SMAD PLACE lacks that and has a questionable profile
* With 19 runs he’d be the most exposed winner in years
* SMAD PLACE doesn’t do it for me
* Not with a recent heavy ground win
* BLACK THUNDER’s profile is not that bad
* Certainly as good as you could hope for a 25/1 chance
* Held on form there look pacier types against him
* Not keen on his size or his prospects on the ground
* We know the last 11 winners all had form in Graded Chases
* SAM WINNER does not have that
* CORRIN WOOD does not have that
* SAM WINNER has run on the flat which isn’t ideal
* He looks a tough more exposed than would be ideal
* Will like the ground but a lack of graded chase form worries me
* CORRIN WOOD also lacks graded chase form
* The other strike against him is his absence
* Longer than any winner since 1991 albeit not by much
* CARLINGFORD LOUGH unseated rider last time out
* Thats not a good sign at all
* The last 26 winners of this race were 1-2-3 last time out
* He is also 8 which isn’t the best age
* He has 19 runs which is more than any recent winner
* He has 13 Chase starts which sounds too many
* Recent winners had 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4 Chase runs
* CARLINGFORD LOUGH may not be the right type
* MANY CLOUDS is a decent enough chaser
* I don’t mind his profile but he is not my first choice
* Over trips of 19f 20f 21f he is W 2 W 2 W W
* Over trips of 22f or more he is 2 2 PU
* I just don’t like his better record over shorter
* Not keen on his trainer or his record in big fields either
* O4FAOLAINS BOY won the Reynoldstown last time
* That’s not the best of preparations winning that race
* A bit short on experience with 3 Chase runs with a Pulled Up
* Can’t be ruled out but I don’t see enough positives
* MORNING ASSEMBLY has a 73 day absence
* We know the last 49 winners ran in the same calendar year
* That absence is a negative about his profile
* He has never ran away from soft ground either
* These issues and no track form are the main worries
* Otherwise he looks a smart prospect
* DON COSSACK could go well if his jumping holds
* I like his profile and his recent race
* Many will assume he can’t reverse form with Ballycasey
* I wouldn’t be so sure over this 3m trip which
* DON COSSACK has won on good ground
* I see him as the value in the race

Selection

DON COSSACK 14/1

Each Way

 

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m   3.20

BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m

9/4 Sire De Grugy, 9/2 Captain Conan, 11/2 Arvika Ligeonniere
7/1 Baily Green, 10/1 Hinterland, 10/1 Kid Cassidy
12/1 Sizing Europe 14/1 Module, 14/1 Somersby
20/1 Special Tiara 25/1 Wishfull Thinking.

* This is a Grade 1 Chase over 2 miles

* The form horse is clearly SIRE DE GRUGY
* He tops the Official ratings and Racing Post Ratings
* There are doubts if you want to oppose him
* He has never been to a Cheltenham Festival before
* That’s unusual and his Cheltenham form is questionable
* There is more than a suspicion this may not be his track
* His Jockey is talented but is hardly a positive
* Jamie Moore is 0-55 riding at the festival
* SIRE DE GRUGY has also had a busier season than I’d want
* The last few winners had the following runs that season
* 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 1 4 4 4 2 4 5 3 7 3
* SIRE DE GRUGY has 5 runs this season
* That is more than the last 17 winners had
* I think there are plenty of doubts about him

* Horses aged 11 + rarely have the Speed to win.
* They did win in 2005 and 1977 but are best opposed
* The age of recent winners is as follows
* 9-9-9-6-5-6-8-11-7-9-8-8-9-10-10-7-8-7-8-8-8-9-8-9
* SIZING EUROPE wouldn’t interest me as a 12yo
* This race started in 1959 and only the 1977 winner was 12
* WISHFUL THINKING is 11 and makes limited appeal
* Horses aged 10 haven’t won since 1998

* BAILY GREEN has 21 previous Chase runs which is a lot
* Past winners had the following number of Chase starts
  7 7 9 13 12 8 9 8 22 8 11 18 23 4 24 12 11 11 18 14 9 15 14 8
* The last 8 winners had 7-13 Chase runs
* There are some before that with a similar number of runs
* He was 2nd in an Arkle so should be respected
* He comes here losing his last 9 races though
* Well beaten over hurdles last time doesn’t inspire either
* His 21 Chase runs produced a best 158 Racing Post Rating
* That should not be good enough to win
* There are horses in this race with better ratings last time
* Arvika Ligeonniere, Captain Conan, Sire De Grugy, Wishfull Thinking
* These 4 horses recorded better Racing Post Ratings last time out
* They had better ratings that BAILY GREEN has in 21 Chase starts
* I may be wrong in looking at this approach
* I appreciate the ratings are all under different circumstances
* It still puts me off BAILY GREEN in a Grade 1 off level weights

* HINTERLAND is a 6 year old
* It would worry me he has just 5 Chase starts
* Recent winners had the following number of Chase starts
* 7-7-13-12-8-9-8-22-8-11-18-23-4-24-12-11-11-18-14-9-15-14-8.
* Since 1989 only 1 winner had under 7 Chase starts
* That was the 1999 winner who had 4 Chase starts
* The 2007 winner was 6 but the hot favourite fell that year
* The last 6 year old to win before that was in 1973
* HINTERLAND – You don’t want a 6yo with just 5 Chase runs

* KID CASSIDY has to be given a chance
* His career best run has come over 2m at Cheltenham
* His last run was poor though not a good sign
* 30 of the last 32 winners were 1-2-3 last time out
* The only 2 that were not both fell
* No winners have won after such a poor run as he had

* MODULE – I just don’t see enough I like
* SPECIAL TIARA disappointed last time out
* I can forgive that on heavy ground in a small field
* He was beaten here in December over 2m
* He was 3rd behind Kid Cassidy and Sire De Grugy
* SPECIAL TIARA was really having his seasonal debut that day
* He’d fallen at the first on his first run of the year
* He has to improve but it’s not a huge amount to find

* ARVIKA LIGEONNEIRE has the track to overcome
* 8 of his 9 career wins were going right handed
* His 2 Cheltenham runs were both well below expectations
* So much class I couldn’t rule him out
* There are too many doubts about track and ground

* CAPTAIN CONAN is the type to win at the Festival
* He looked like winning last years Jewson but didn’t stay
* This 2m distance could suit him best of all
* CAPTAIN CONAN has 6 Chase starts
* Recent winners had the following number of Chase starts
* 7-7-13-12-8-9-8-22-8-11-18-23-4-24-12-11-11-18-14-9-15-14-8.
* CAPTAIN CONAN is 1 short of being ideal
* I can overlook that much as I’d prefer 7 Chase runs
* I also have to overlook just 1 run this season
* Past winners had the following runs that year
* 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 1 4 4 4 2 4 5 3 7 3
* Only 8yo Flagship Uberalles has won with 1 run this year
* Said to be working well after a back injury
* I see him as a potential winner but I need to turn a blind eye
* To his 6 Chase runs and just 1 run this season
 

Part of me wants to go with CAPTAIN CONAN each way
and to ignore my concerns instead relying on the skills
of Nicky Henderson who is sure to have him close to his
best. Everyone knows ARVIKA LIGEONNEIRE’s flaws but
surely 8/1 is a big price. Then I decided to review what
I feared most about SIRE DE GRUGY. I decided to isolate
2m Cheltenham performances on Racing Post Ratings.

Racing Post Ratings
Cheltenham runs only
2 Miles only
Since 2012

174 Sizing Europe
170 Sire De Grugy Sizing Europe
162 Kid Cassidy Wishful Thinking
161 Special Tiara
158 Baily Green
157 Wishful Thinking
155 Somersby
154 Captain Conan
147 Kid Cassidy

Sizing Europe has the best figure and joint 2nd best
which were recorded at the 2012 and 2013 Festivals.
I don’t want to go with him as a 12 year old but clear
2nd best is SIRE DE GRUGY with a course & distance
Racing Post Rating of 170 which is 8lbs higher than
all other runners. This leads me to think that there’s
no real case for saying he doesn’t like the track and
it will surely be difficult to rule him out of the 1-2-3.
It won’t be palatable to some but we are talking just
11 runners of which 4 are outsiders and 1/4 the odds.
 
SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 Each Way is a good bet

However

SOMERSBY is 16/1

SOMERSBY is also in the “Without the favourite” market

This is betting without SIRE DE GRUGY

14/1 Ladbrokes
12/1 Corals PPower Chandler
10/1 Bet365
9/1 Boyles

Now I appreciate 10 years old is a bit older than ideal

I appreciate he doesn’t have the best record here and
it is not his course and you can argue he has had his
chance. But he was 2nd in an Arkle and placed in the
Supreme Novice. He has placed in a Grade 1 here as
well and he is effective. It’s not his ideal track but the
horse has some good runs here before.

Besides that people are saying Sire De Grugy doesn’t
like this track and Arvika Ligeonniere hates it as well.

No Sprinter Sacre. This must be the worst Champion
Chase for donkey’s years. He likes a small field and a
quicker surface as well. He surely must be the value

He won the Haldon Gold Cup just 3 runs ago

He was then 2nd in the Tingle Creek just behind Sire De Grugy

Last time he unseated rider but he was only 11/4 to beat
Sire De Grugy in that race and now he is much bigger.

Final Selection

“Without the favourite” market

SOMERSBY 12/1 or 14/1 Each Way

Anyone who can’t get on this market can
bet SOMERSBY each way 16/1 in this race.
 
SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m   4.00

Glenfarclas Handicap Chase
(A Cross Country Chase)  (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 3m7f

4/1 Big Shu, 5/1 Balthazar King, 8/1 Sire Collonges
8/1 Star Neuville, 9/1 Love Rory, 10/1 Any Currency
11/1 Quantitativeeasing, 12/1 Bishopsfurze, 14/1 Sizing Australia
14/1 Uncle Junior, 16/1 Diamond Harry, 16/1 Quiscover Fontaine
20/1 A Stray Shot, 20/1 Duke Of Lucca, 25/1 Hey Big Spender
33/1 Sin Palo.

* The Cross Country Chase has 9 past renewals
* DIAMOND HARRY – I don’t think he stays this far
* LOVE RORY – I don’t want a 6 year old in these races
* He is not technically a 6 year old for a few more weeks anyway
* He won a Cross Country race at Punchestown last time
* He beat Big Shu that day but the latter needed the race
* He has no Cheltenham form and has too much to prove
* UNCLE JUNIOR is wrong as an out of form 13 year old
* STAR NEUVILLE doesn’t do it for me
* I don’t like him coming from a 2m 4f race
* Not with just 1 run this season
* The 9 past winners had the following Chase starts
* 7 13 17 48 11 15 14 16 30
* STAR NEUVILLE has only had 5 chase starts
* QUANTITATIVEEASING looks too risky
* Not sure he has the experience in this discipline
* QUISCOVER FONTAINE – Not for me on this ground
* BISHOPSFURZE fell on his cross country debut
* Not a good experience and the ground is faster than ideal
* His sire hasn’t yet bred a winner over 3m 2f or more
* He has yet to show this track suits him
* May win but he has plenty to prove
* SIZING AUSTRALIA is a past winner of this in 2011
* Not sure you can rule him out on ground he likes
* I just don’t want a 12 year old on drying ground
* He was well beaten in last years race
* SIRE COLLONGES – No killer stat to rule him out
* Far from convinced he is good enough though
* ANY CURRENCY has a 9 3 2 cross country record
* Should go well but I don’t think he fully stays this far
* He comes from a handicap chase. No winner did that
* I thought a place was more likely than a win

Shortlist
 
* BIG SHU won this race easily last season
* Huge player again but he is 18lbs higher this year
* He is also very lightly raced this season
* The first 8 winners of this had 5 3 9 3 3 6 4 4 runs that year
* BIG SHU won last year with 1 run and a point to point as well
* My worry is whether he is just short of a run
* He does  have improvement in him so must be considered
* 1 run this year makes him a Saver rather than selection

* BALTHAZAR KING has 117 days off and topweight
* I don’t think that’s an impossible task
* The 2010 winner had 88 days off and that weight
* BALTHAZAR KING won this in 2012 but didn’t run in 2013’s year
* The ground is also in his favour
 
Selection

BALTHAZAR KING 6/1 Win Bet

BIG SHU 4/1 Saver Bet

 
****************************************************
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www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

A nice winner last week for readers here.

Lingfield has been abandoned but I suppose it
is a bonus that Kempton has survived. That is
the only English card today. For paying clients
I have previewed the first six races there only
leaving the finale alone a race that looks a bit
too dangerous.

I have three staked bets for them today.
A short price – A Medium price – And a Big Price

Here on the free horse betting blog I will stick up
for you the medium price option.

Kempton   1.45

9/4 Glastonberry, 11/4 Climaxfortackle, 4/1 Big Sylv
8/1 Amosite, 8/1 Chambles, 10/1 Zing Wing
12/1 Dancing Welcome, 25/1 Ishiamiracle.

This is a fillies handicap over 7f. Not too many of
these races are run at this time of year and that
makes it harder to judge things like age. So far
none of the races went to horses aged 7 or over
so both DANCING WELCOME and  AMOSITE
are unlike any winners. I would not trust such a
stat based on a small sample size but they did
not attract me anyway. ZING WING doesnt feel
safe with his absence. ISHIAMIRACLE is out of
form. I see a strong case for GLASTONBERRY
who’s been in fine form but she has very little in
the way of backclassbackclass and she has to
give weight to horses who have achieved more
than her. CHAMBLES isn’t out of this with fair
excuses last time. BIG SYLV’s profile is good
enough to consider and CLIMAXFORTACKLE
also comes out well and has a good recent run.

Conclusion

Given the prices I originally thought  there was a case to make
about overlooking Glastonberry for an alternative
each way bet but a non runner has ruined the each way frame of the race.
Much depends on how BIG SYLV
copes down in trip and on her first run on a right
handed track and how CLIMAXFORTACKLE gets
on going up in distance. I just prefer the latter.

Selection

* Win CLIMAXFORTACKLE 3/1 Victor Chandler – Stan James

Posted under horse racing tips

Welsh National Analysis

The Welsh National has finally arrived albeit in January

and today’s mail is my attempt to find the winner. It will

not be easy given how bad the conditions are which is

illustrated by the Clerk of the course who states it’s the

lowest going stick reading he has ever recorded there.

Before the main preview and selection some

encouragement to join me as a client proper.

 

To Join The Full Private Service

Due to the rescheduling of the Welsh National we have kept

our cheap Christmas deal offer live and available.

As well as a cheap test month price the simple no quibble
refund guarantee

protects you if you later decide we are not a perfect match
for you.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

Nb This offer will close after the weekend !

 

Results This Week

There have been 8 bets this week in the Private Service

and they have produced the following results.

WON 5/6 – WON 7/4 – LOST 5/1- WON 11/10

WON 3/1 – LOST 6/1 – WON 3/1 – LOST

 

 

WELSH NATIONAL

Racing Post Forecast Odds

3/1 Teaforthree, 6/1 Michel Le Bon, 7/1 Sona Sasta

7/1 Viking Blond, 10/1 Giles Cross, 10/1 Universal Soldier

12/1 Master Overseer, Monbeg Dude

12/1 Soll, 20/1 Across The Bay, 25/1 Our Island

33/1 Arbor Supreme, 33/1 Harouet, 33/1 Jadanli

40/1 Mon Mome, 50/1 Incentivise, 50/1 Triggerman.

 

* The Welsh National is a Handicap Chase over 3m 5f

* I want to start with the Age statistics

* Bear in Mind as this is run in January that’s affected

* Horses are 1 year old than they would have been last week

* Only 1 horse aged 10 has won this since 1987

* That was Riverside Boy way back in 1976

* Avoid horses aged 11 or more

* I have gone back to 1976 and none have won

* No horse aged 11 or more have placed in 16 years

* The last 16 winners were aged 6-7-8-9

* 21 of the last 22 winners were aged 6-7-8-9

* Adjusting for the race run in the new year

* I would be concerned about only horses aged 11 +

* GILES CROSS looks wrong aged 11 absent 266 days

* The previous 20 winners had all raced that season

* GILES CROSS hasn’t and is surely too old with that in mind

* JADANLI doesn’t offer enough as a 11 year old

* MON MOME makes no appeal as a 13 year old

* TRIGGERMAN is also rejected as a 11 year old

* ARBOR SUPREME has too much to do aged 11

* I don’t see him following up his last win

* Not from so far out of the handicap and up in class

* INCENTIVISE shouldn’t have the class

* Not out of the handicap and a mark he’s not won from

* Most winners had form in Graded Races

* There were only 2 that didn’t

* They had 11 + 12 National Hunt runs and 4 + 7 Chase runs

* I’d only want a lightly raced horse if non Graded form

* HAROUET fails that and doesn’t look good enough

* His Sire hasn’t bred a winner beyond 3m 2f either

* COOL OPERATOR has just won two 0-120 handicaps

* He is stepping up 4 Grades now and in a 0-153

* I don’t see where the improvement will come

* Not considering he’s exposed with all his wins of lower
marks

* KATENKO doesn’t have much experience in England

* I think its asking a lot having never ran beyond 3m

* Fallen in 3 of 11 Chase starts he isn’t for me

* ACROSS THE BAY has a horrible weight in bad ground]

* He is 18lbs higher than his best handicap win

* ACROSS THE BAY is best avoided

* Horses with 11st 1lbs and more have struggled

* Just two have won since the 1994 winner

* That race was run at Newbury a far easier track

* The two winners were Synchronised and Halcon Genelardais

* These were lightly raced with 10 and 12 NH runs

* They only had 4 and 5 Chase starts

* I’d want a lightly raced horse if they have 11st 1lbs or
more

* Go back to 1988 for Horses coming via the Hennessy

* In 23 years the record of these horses is 0-47

* So Far all 47 that tried to win have failed to do so

* The Role of Failures includes Horses beaten at these odds

* 5/2f , 11/2 , 9/4f , 4/1, 13/2 ,11/2, 5/2f , 11/2 , 8/1

* 11/2 8/1, 9/1 5/1, 11/2 , 7/2, 13/2 7/2 9/2 5/2f

* My advice is do not rely on this Statistic much

* This year horses have an extra weeks recovery time

* That must undermine that statistic

* That said its a 23 year stat that’s still standing

* It can’t be a positive to come from the Hennessy

* TEAFORTHREE comes from the Hennessy my first worry

* He has ran twice this season

* He was beaten 40 and 27 lengths in these races

* That’s a bit too far for comfort in two races

* He won the 4m Chase at the Cheltenham Festival

* Most winners didn’t run at the previous festival

* None of the past 4 did and neither did 6 of the last 7

* I’d like evidence he has recovered from that grueling win

* TEAFORTHREE could easily overcome that and win

* I would be inclined to see him as a positive

* TEAFORTHREE doesn’t appeal at the prices though

* Especially with 11st 3lbs a higher weight than ideal

* SOLL also comes from the Hennessy

* It would worry me that he is inexperienced

* He has 4 Chase starts but was brought down in one

* Past winners had the following National Hunt runs

* 34 12 20 16 20 10 19 11 33 18 14 31 14 21

* The least experienced winner had 10 National Hunt runs

* SOLL only has 5 National Hunt runs

* That’s only half as much as the least experienced winner

* SOLL doesn’t look the right type to me

* OUR ISLAND is just out of Novice Chases

* Doesn’t look Classy enough for this race

* He has never won beyond a Class 4 race before

* MASTER OVERSEER won at Cheltenham 3 weeks ago

* There are positives about his chance

* He has winning form here and stays

* There are plenty of concerns about him as well

* Will he recover from that hard race last time out

* He has been inconsistent recently

* There could be an argument that he is best fresh

* He also ran badly in last years race

* Raised to a career high mark I feel he is risky

* UNIVERSAL SOLDIER has 9 National Hunt runs

* That’s fewer than any previous winner of the race

* He is inexperienced much as 5 Chase starts is fine

* He doesn’t have any Graded form though

* Most winners had that and that’s a worry

* There were just two that didn’t have Graded form

* They had more experience and less weight

* They both won their previous 2 races and were improvers

* UNIVERSAL SOLDIER doesn’t have that feel about him

* MONBEG DUDE is lightly raced over fences

* He only has 10 National Hunt starts as well

* All recent winners aged 7 or 8 had more

* He’d be the joint least experienced winner

* Having 5 Chase starts isn’t a huge problem

* MONBEG DUDE only completed in 3 of these

* He pulled up after 6 fences in one race

* He fell 4 fences out in another

* He is a bit short of experience

* I wonder if this may come a year too early

* I cant rule him out but he has a bit to prove

* Winning a Graded Chase last time isn’t the norm

* SONA SASTA has a lovely weight of 10st

* Happy overall with 16 runs and 9 over fences

* There is a stamina doubt about him

* He has 3 runs in races over 3m 4f or more

* He finished 5th 6th 6th beaten 51 12 29 lengths

* If he stays he is a player but its a worry

* So is the 7lbs Claimer which I’d see as a negative

* MICHEL LE BON is an interesting horse

* He won a Novice Chase back in November 2009

* Injury then forced him off the track two years

* He came back in the 2011 Hennessy well fancied

* I made him a big negative that day

* He had just 1 chase start and 730 days absence

* He then went to Kempton’s big chase in February

* He had an awful profile that day and flopped

* He wasn’t fit or experienced enough as I said on the day

* He then won over hurdles and wrapped up for the year

* This year he was a good 2nd in a solid trial race at Wincanton

* Stamina wise his sires bred 1 winner from 19 over 3m 3f
+

* That doesn’t really count as it in a cross country race

* MICHEL LE BON has 9 National Hunt runs

* That’s a bit low and all winners aged 9 or more had more

* 4 of those 9 runs were over fences

* The 2011 2007 2006 winners all had 4 Chase runs

* They were younger though so he isn’t a perfect match

* All horses aged 9 + had at least twice more chase runs

* Not sure if that matters or not

* Most had more runs that season as well

* Its a worry he has no strong form in long distance handicaps

* Is he equipped for a long distance handicap chase ?

* He hasn’t proven as much as many past winners in them

* Sure he has the ability off 144 but he has to prove it

* VIKING BLOND is a very interesting runner

* He’s a bit more exposed than ideal for his age

* His 8 Chase starts is fine though

* Horses aged 7-8 had 4 7 8 9 9 13 14 10 4 15 Chase runs

* I think that puts him in quite a good place statistically

* He is from a Sire that’s not had a winner past 3m2f yet

* Not many have tried but it is a concern

* My other concern is a lack of proven form in marathon races

* The vast majority of past winners had good form in these
races

* VIKING BLOND hasn’t also flopped in this race last year

* I can excuse that as he had a very poor profile last year

* He was favourite last year and this year has less weight

* This horse was a good Novice Chaser in 2011

* Since then I think he’s been campaigned badly

* December 2011 Welsh National he was a big negative

* Had no chance of winning that with just 3 chase runs

* He then disappointed at Ascot in February 2012

* No surprise after what happened at Chepstow

* It was ridiculous to run this 7yo in the Grand National

* Horses that age don’t win and he fell at the first

* That meant he lacked a run when running in April

* In the Bet365 Gold Cup he had been absent far too long

* Some ridiculous planning spoilt his 2012 season

* This year he has at least come out and run well

* Several positives like good recent form and track form

* I also love the fact he has two good runs this year

* VIKING BLOND has lots in his favour

 

 

Conclusion

After the abandonment and all withdrawals the market

has settled down and this year the betting looks about

right. I can see a few potential winners and its a matter

of choosing the right one. TEAFORTHREE has to be a

possible winner. I’m ignoring the bad statistic of horses

that come from the Hennessy as there is 9 extra days

recovery time but at the price he is too short to select.

I could actually make a good case for him as a place

saver around Evens. The value has disappeared from

the win market but with 4 places he could place and

be the perfect saver as a place bet. Another factor to

put me off his win chance is Rebecca Curtis has not

yet trained a winner higher than Listed Class before.

In 2011 Paul Nicholls was adamant MICHEL LE BON

was potentially top class and fancied him that year in

the Hennessy. His profile that day was laughable and

it wasn’t much better in his next race at Kempton. Its

to his credit he then won over hurdles and first time

out this year he ran very well at Wincanton. This is a

valuable race and Paul Nicholls understands that and

if he has the same animal he thought he had in 2011

then his weight wont stop him today. We do not know

if he can scale those heights but he has been laid out

for this race and unlike many Nicholls horses he has

been given time and space to fulfil his potential. He

still has time to fulfil his potential and I hope its now.

I said in my November 17 message that I was getting

excited about VIKING BLOND’s Welsh national hopes.

He has been laid out for the race by a Grand National

master and if he gets in a rhythm and gets home he’s

a serious threat and will go close. It was a close call

between my bet and saver but VIKING BLOND has a

bit more experience and more runs this season and

has 10lbs less weight to carry which will greatly help.

 

 

Selection

VIKING BLOND 10/1 + Win Bet bet365 – william hill – stan james

MICHEL LE BON 9/1 Saver Bet victor chandler – stan james

( A saver is simply a small bet staked to win back the stake
on the main bet should the saver win the race )

 

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

PS Don’t forget to grab the Christmas sale price on full
membership whilst it is still available.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

It’s a fascinating Hennessy Day and a Newbury and
Towcester dominated message for full members.
I thought Newcastle had a poor card and I wasn’t prepared
to play the cat and mousegame about whether it is on or off.
I have done most of the races at Newbury and Towcester for full members
so hoping for a good day.

For full members I have four highlighted bets today.
Here on the free blog I will post just one of them

I knew a few weeks ago that BOBS WORTH would be the
strongest profile in the Hennessy and that took the shine
off the race as he’s favourite. My angles push me his way.

I will go with BOBS WORTH in the big race. My stats
suggest he is the one but he doesn’t really need to be
there today.

Hennessy Gold Cup Newbury  3.10

I sent the Hennessy Analysis earlier in the week. My angles
clearly point to BOBS WORTH being the likely winner. That
will depend on several things. He has to handle the biggest
field of chasers he has yet encountered and I have to get it right with the negatives.
For an example the age statistics  have to be right about TIDAL BAY who is
2 years olds than all past winners. His chance increases for me as this is a far from  vintage Hennessy but his age puts me off.
There’s a good case for HOLD ON JULIO but I have opposed him  as his sires
record shows none have won over this far and 46 of the Sires 47 winners
came in at least 3 Grades lower and none have won in this class before.
I dont know it that is a very skillfull thing to do or a complete mistake but
he is not my choice becuase of it.
My statistics suggest that THE PACKAGE should have competed in a higher
grade after so many runs if he was to have the class.
I have to be right about several more as well.
BOBS WORTH has the strongest profile and because of that is my selection.

* FRISCO DEPOT – Not quite right but has positives
* FIRST LIEUTENANT – Wont surprise me if he is the one
* BOBS WORTH is the selection

Selection

Win BOBS WORTH 5/1 at various including paddy power bet365

If betting each way on this race today note that sky bet365 and paddy power
are all offering 5 places instead of the usual four.

 

Hennessy Gold Cup Statistics

* Horses with 6-18 career starts do best
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 20-12-16-23-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with few runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 5-0-21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 14-3-12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is very helpfull
* 16 of the last 20 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
* Two of the four that were not finished 3rd
* I looked at horses that had raced that season
* None of the winners came from a Non Handicap Graded race
* No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
* Second-season chasers have the best recent record
* They have won 9 of the last 13 renewals
* Since 1992 Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 1-44
* The only 9yo debutant to win was Denman in 2009
* Few hennessy winners have headgear
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
* Those with 9 or more career starts doing that were 1-50
* That was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* No past winner came from a Hurdles race
* No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
* As a rule 6 year old debutants with Grade 1 form are fine

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Last weeks post was titled ” A Poor Saturday ”
As it turned out it was a poor day for the bookies
with Chapter Seven winning at an advised 12/1

We have a full member firm bet running in the 3.10 today.
It is a double digit price horse that will produce a great return if it wins.

If you want to join up read more at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/betting-advice.asp

Our full bets are doing exceptionally well running at about 40% profit on turnover.

As for the free horse racing tip today we again dip into the
profiles and previews section of the main message.

This is highly speculative today covering a few long odds outsiders.

Y o r k 2.05

For Latest Odds See

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-06-16/york/14-05/betting/

This is a Lady Amateur riders race over 12f. Just looking
for the ideal types. Horses that come up in distance from
8f races like HOT ROD MAMMA have to go and I’d also
be ignoring those from 10f races as well.
I’d ignore the big absences.
Male 4 year olds have struggled in these Ladies races and
I wouldnt want EAGLE ROCK with just 1 race
this season or LEXINGTON BAY another who just fell a
bit short as a 4yo. I dont want 3 year old CAPE SAFARI.
I feel HANOVERIAN BARON needs another race to get
fit. Not keen on the mare ANTIGUA SUNRISE not least
on the ground. CRACKENTORP has good history in this
race and won it last year. This year though he looks a lot
riskier with more weight and only one run this year which
is much fewer than he has had when running in this before.
I wanted more from RED JADE and HALLA SAN looked
too risky as a 10 year old coming down from a 2m race.
I dont like SIR BOSS’s chance. SCRAPPER SMITH has to
prove he stays and looks short of runs this year. I’d avoid
VEILED APPLAUSE aged 9 and up in distance.

Shortlist

* TROOPINGTHECOLOUR – Scrapes on but unsafe
* ITLAAQ – I wanted more runs this season
* ODIN4S RAVEN – Keep him on side
* HONG KONG ISLAND – Another to shortlist

Selection

Split Stake Bet

* ODIN4S RAVEN 20/1 +
* HONG KONG ISLAND 20/1 +
* ITLAAQ 18/1 +

Put 33% stakes on each at betfair SP is as simple as way as any to play these.

Best Wishes
Guy

Posted under horse racing tips