Hennessy Betting Advice

The Hennessy is top class and a fascinating puzzle.
I am going for an outsider.
This has to be the best quality Hennessy in recent years.
There are a dozen that can win.
My choice is not one of the safer bets and he may easily
run badly for any number of reasons but I like him at
the price and feel there are good reasons to bet him
at more than 20/1 so I’m going with CARRUTHERS

NEWBURY 3.05

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase Handicap Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m2f110y

9/2 Denman, 11/2 Weird Al, 15/2 Burton Port
8/1 Diamond Harry, 8/1 Pandorama, 12/1 Big Fella Thanks
12/1 Taranis, 16/1 Madison Du Berlais, 16/1 Neptune Collonges 20/1 Carruthers,
20/1 Hey Big Spender, 25/1 Silver By Nature 33/1 The Tother One, 40/1 Barbers Shop,
40/1 Niche Market 50/1 Dream Alliance, 50/1 Razor Royale, 150/1 Hills Of Aran.

* The Hennessy is a 0-182 Handicap Chase
* This is a Top Class Handicap for 0-182 rated horses
* There are 18 renewals since 1992
* Horses with 6-20 career starts dominate the Hennessy
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 17-34-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with Under 8 runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is important
* 16 of the last 17 winners were 1st or 2nd last time

NEGATIVES

* BARBERS SHOP can’t win after a dreadfull last run.
* SILVER BY NATURE doesnt appeal to me
* I dont want an exposed seasonal debutant
* He may be using this for a Welsh National prep race
* He doesnt have the backclass for a Hennessy winner
* NICHE MARKET- Hills OF ARAN are outclassed
* RAZOR ROYALE – DREAM ALLIANCE are outclassed
* DENMAN tries to win this for the 3rd time
* He won with this weight in 2007 and 2009
* This year I would rather oppose him
* His 2 wins in this race came from marks of 161 and 174
* Today he a better class field and a tough mark of 182
* This is his hardest task in this race and I dont like his chance
* DENMAN is a 10 year old
* Since 1992 horses aged 10 or more are 0-46 in this race
* The last winner his aged was back in 1981
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* He is more exposed than almost all the past 18 winners

* He is possibly on the downgrade now on last years evidence
* Dissapointed in 2 of his last 3 runs and he has plenty to prove
* Statistically DENMAN is weak in this years race

* THE TOTHER ONE has run this year in a Graded Chase
* Horses with that profile had a 0-23 record
* He doesnt look well handicapped at the moment
* 7 Chase starts and he only has 1 win in a Novice Chase
* Well down the stable pecking order he may lack the class

* DIAMOND HARRY may fail for lack of experience
* I looked at 7yo seasonal debutants with Grade 1 form
* Those with 9-20 career starts from Grade 1 races were 2-3
* Trabolgan (2005) and Denman (2007) had this profile
* They only other that had it was a 1st fence faller in 2003
* That W F W record makes DIAMOND HARRY interesting
* Its fair to say the 2 similar winners won the Sun Alliance last time
* DIAMOND HARRY Pulled up in the Sun Alliance
* In his favour though is he carries 24lbs less weight
* There is a concern whether he has enough Chase experience
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* DIAMOND HARRY only has 3 Chase starts
* He only completed in 2 of those races
* His only wins came in tiny fields and lack of experience hurts him

* TARANIS is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* He has a superb record when running after an absence
* His main problem is the record of debutants his age
* Since 1992 Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 0-42
* He is quite exposed for a seasonal debutant
* Thats my main objection to him
* He is older and more exposed than ideal for a debutant
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES has the same problem
* He is 9 and has not run in 624 days
* No past winner has won with anything like that absence
* No exposed horse has won first time out anyway
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES doesnt appeal with that absence

* BIG FELLA THANKS has ran once this season
* Horses doing that with 9 + career starts won 7 races
* They all had form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races though
* Those like BIG FELLA THANKS that didnt were 0-20
* None ran this year in a Non Handicap either
* Statistically I cant match him to a winner
* My main doubt is whether he has the Class to win
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
* Those with 9 or more career starts doing that were 1-41
* The only winner was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* He was younger as well and overall I am unimpressed

* PANDORAMA is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* Debutants aged 7 like him with Grade 1 form were 3-14
* These 3 winners had 4-5-6 chase starts
* PANDORAMA only has 3 Chase starts
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* That makes him less experience than any recent winner
* He has won all 3 of his Chase starts though
* Lack of Chasing experience is his biggest problem
* He also has to prove he stays this far as well

* MADISON DU BERLAIS is exposed unlike most winners
* He did win this when exposed though in 2008
* With less weight this year I dont ignore his chance
* I can match him to any past winners now though
* No past winner came from a Hurdles race either
* I will be surprised if he wins again

* BURTON PORT is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* The only recent winner like that was in 2006
* That winner had Grade 1 form like and won last time
* Horses sharing BURTON PORT’s profile were 1-2
* You can argue neither horse came from a Grade 2 chase
* No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
* Take 6 year old seasonal debutants from Grade 2 Chases
* There were 2 horses with that profile in the last 18 years
* These 2 horses finished 7 + F
* As a rule 6 year old debutants with Grade 1 form are fine
* BURTON PORT has the correct exposure as well
* He is a small horse though and isnt guaranteed to stay
* BURTON PORT is a net positive though

* HEY BIG SPENDER won  first time out this year
* No winner did that from a Non Handicap Though
* He has yet to prove he stays this far
* He has fallen twice in his last 3 Chase starts as well
* Only 1 year ago he was in Novice Handicap Chases
* I cant rule him out but he doesnt offer enough

SHORTLIST

* WEIRD AL has run this season in a Non Handicap Chase
* No horse running this year came from a Non Handicap
* WEIRD AL has only ran 6 times under rules
* Horses with 1 run this year and under 9 career starts won 2 races
* None came from 2m 4f as he has to do
* Both winners came from Handicap Chases and he doesnt
* None were aged 7 like he was as well
* I cant rule him out but I cant match him exactly
* His 4 Chase wins came in fields of 4 5 5 6 runners
* This will be a much different test for him

* CARRUTHERS is given a chance at 25/1
* He didnt run that well in his seasonal debut
* Being Unplaced that makes him unlike any past winner
* He was beaten 23 lengths last time out
* However his chance is similar to the  2008 winner
* Madison Du Berlais won this in 2008 from the same race
* Although Madison Du Berlais placed in his prep run
* He was beaten 25 lengths that day less than Carruthers
* That was in the same Ascot race which is interesting
* CARRUTHERS is the same age as he was
* He also has far less weight as well
* I dont see a reason why CARRUTHERS cant win
* He does look a small field horse but thats unproven
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and that improves it
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and his seasonal debuts
* His record then becomes W 2 W W W W W 2
* As a smaller horse he’ll be much better suited to a lightweight
* I think CARRUTHERS is worth shortlisting

Todays Suggested Bets

Newbury 3.05

CARRUTHERS 20/1 each way
Sky VC Tote

Best Wishes

Guy

Posted under Major Horse Races

Grand National Tip

If you like a Grand National horse don’t let me or my angles talk you out of it.
I don’t feel this is an easy race this year and I’m hopeful rather than confident.
You get just the one chance a year to bet the winner so don’t let me cost you the winner.

My Grand National selection (s) are these

HELLO BUD 50/1
NICHE MARKET 22/1

AINTREE 4.15

John Smith´s Grand National Chase
(Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (6yo+)  4m4f

Forecast Odds

9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 12/1 Mon Mome, 12/1 The Package
16/1 Arbor Supreme, 16/1 Black Apalachi, 16/1 Character Building 16/1 Niche Market,
16/1 Snowy Morning, 16/1 State Of Play 16/1 Tricky Trickster, 20/1 Backstage,
20/1 Comply Or Die 20/1 Don´t Push It, 25/1 Vic Venturi, 28/1 Irish Raptor 28/1
King Johns Castle, 33/1 Ballyholland, 33/1 Can´t Buy Time 33/1 Maljimar, 33/1 My Will,
40/1 Cloudy Lane, Dream Alliance 40/1 Eric´s Charm, 40/1 Hello Bud, 50/1 Ballyfitz, 50/1
Cerium 50/1 Madison Du Berlais, 66/1 Flintoff, Nozic, Palypso De Creek 66/1 Royal Rosa,
100/1 Beat The Boys, 100/1 Conna Castle 100/1 Ellerslie George, 100/1 Joe Lively,
100/1 Ollie Magern 100/1 Piraya, 100/1 Preists Leap, 150/1 Made In Taipan 150/1 Pablo Du Charmil.

The Grand National is never easy but never as hard as
is often portrayed and not everything can win the race
as the old cliche goes. The ground could play a bigger
part this year as its drying out.
I think this years race has an unusual frame to it with no horses carrying less than 10st 5lbs
and 19 runners having 11st or more.
The stats that suggest horses don’t win with over 11st has never been more vulnerable as it is this year.

Not planning to have a huge preview of the race but very keen to get it right this year and I’m turning a blind eye to some stats.

My favourite Grand National statistic that applies to all
similar races in the first half of the year is as follows.

* Since 1992 there has been 65 Handicaps
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases over 3m 7f or more
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases with at least 12 runners
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases in Class 2 or Higher Grade
* This includes the last 16 Grand Nationals
* It includes the Scottish , Irish and Midlands Nationals
* Exposed horses struggle with under 5 runs that season
* They have a 2-337 record in these races
* They were 0-144 in this race
* In all races at 4m and more they were just 1-293

I would strongly avoid all horses that are exposed and
lightly raced this season with under 5 runs. This is why
I would make the following horses negatives.

Madison Du Berlais – Black Apalachi – Don’t Push It
Comply Or Die – Dream Alliance – Character Building
Pablo Du Charmil – State of Play – Cloudy Lane – My Will
Eric’s Charm – King Johns Castle –  Maljimar – Irish Raptor -Flintoff- Cerium – Royal Rosa. NOZIC is also short of runs.

It is a well known fact that the last 7 year old winner of
this race was back in 1940 and I couldnt have any horse
that age. In addition to those already opposed above I
would add TRICKY TRICKSTER who is actually only 6
years and 10 months old foaled in June 2003. Others aged
7 to be rejected are THE PACKAGE who has fewer races
over fences than all recent winners. PALYPSO DE CREEK
and PIRAYA are both out as 7 year olds.

* Since 1992 there has been 65 Handicaps
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases over 3m 7f or more

If you look my sample size of 65 races discussed earlier that covers every similar race to this as well
as this one they also show that you have to have been at least 1st  2nd or 3rd in a recent race.
In fact All 65 winners had managed to be placed 1-2-3 in their last six runs.
This should rule out all the out of form horses in the doldrums showing no recent promise.
It’s a trend  PREISTS LEAP fails. BIG FELLA THANKS deserves  massive credit for
finishing 6th last year as a 7 year old. This year he is 8 although not quite 8 for a
few more weeks yet as he was foaled late. I don’t like that about him. I hate the fact
he has just 3 runs this year and did not finish in one of those races.
I think coming from 2m 4f also hurts a horse as young as him and he has far too many
holes in his profile at a short enough price. CAN´T BUY TIME has a similar problem
age 8 and having to step up from 2m 4f with just 3 runs this season.
I can not find any similar horse winning in the 65 races.
The record of certain horses coming from 2m 4f or shorter is awful. MADE IN TAIPAN makes no appeal doing this. Neither does
BALLYHOLLAND coming from a 17f Chase and opposed for
that reason and because he has not won over 3 Miles before
something every winner since 1988 had done. BACKSTAGE
is also 8 years old and up from a 2m 4f race and I couldn’t get a similar winner to
him and he looks on the inexperienced side as well. CONNA CASTLE is out
exposed and up significantly in distance. Exposed horses that come from chases
over 2m 6f or shorter had a 0-66 record in the 69 races.
Thats one of the reasons why I am not convinced about  SNOWY MORNING.
OLLIE MAGERN looks wrong and impossible to fancy.
I feel JOE LIVELY has far too much weight for an exposed 11yo.
It’s  unheard of for an exposed horse like ELLERSLIE GEORGE  to  win without
Graded form. BEAT THE BOYS fails many angles. BALLYFITZ doesnt have a bad profile
although he doesn’t  jump well enough and I would not be confident he would get  round.
I hate the fact he has only won Novice Chases and he also comes from a hurdle race.

POSSIBLES

VIC VENTURA has to be considered. I think he has quite a
stiff handicap mark courtesy of being so consistent. I think  his rating and handicap mark hurt him.
Statistically having won 3 races this season he wouldn’t be like many winners  and coming from a
small field graded chase doesnt impress  me. My gut feeling is that although interesting in terms of
class and his 5-6 runs this season the price he is paying for 3 wins this season may be too high
and his weight may just  be the undoing of him.

ARBOUR SUPREME has factors I don’t like. If you look at
the 65 similar races that include the last 16 renewals of this race. Horses with 13 + career starts
absent over a month like ARBOUR SUPREME won 18 of the 65 races.
Those under 10 years old were 6-174. ARBOUR SUPREME is only aged
8 and that 6-174 record applies to all horses under 10.
Those without form in Grade 1 races like him were just 1-89.
None of them came from short of 3 Miles as he does.
He’s not the best age. Having 4 runs this year is no advantage.
Neither is stepping up from 2m 6f.
Combine all those factors and as a horse with no Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
I think a combination of all of them might prove too much for him.

MON MOME won this by 12 lengths last year carrying 11st.
He has 11st 7lbs this year. His weight was always going to
be his big problem. That said he’d have won the race last year with 7lbs
more weight and many past winners were clobbered more than he has been.
In a year I personally wouldnt listen to negative weight statistics much I’d give
him a better chance than many and I would have him as 3rd-4th-5th pick in the race.

SHORTLIST

NICHE MARKET –  HELLO BUD

I don’t much like exposed 12 year olds like HELLO BUD but
what few winners there were like her had similar credentials to him and I can ot rule him out at 50/1.
NICHE MARKET  has a good profile. He prepped really well at Cheltenham when he was wrong statistically.
I would have liked more wins and some form left handed but he has a fair chance.

SELECTION

NICHE MARKET 25/1
HELLO BUD 50/1

Blog comment : prices dropped a touch from the above which was given to full members earlier

Hello Bud now 40/1 Coral VC Ladbrokes canbet or 48/1 betfair

Niche Market now 20/1 sjames VC bet365  or 23/1 betfair

Posted under Major Horse Races

Racing Tip for Newbury

I don’t think I should have an account bet. Tempted
a lot by the thought of turning an unimpressive week
into a winning one but bottom line is there is not much
point wasting good money before Cheltenham. It has
been a really strong start to the year. I am planning a
Top class Cheltenham where I will be Spot on. Just
having some small personal bets today for some interest.

For the free blog I will list just one of them.

If interested in the other races covered join the full service
under the Cheltenham Deal

Here is the cheap price link:

*************************************************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
*************************************************

NEWBURY 3.10

Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m4f

3/1 Can´t Buy Time, 7/2 Pasco, 6/1 Battlecry, 8/1 Au Courant, 8/1 Panjo Bere,
9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Our Vic10/1 Regal Heights, 33/1 Stan.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m4f
* There are 5 renewals of this race
* There has only been 14 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 14 races in Listed or Graded class

The problem here is 14 races like this is not really enough
to get a complete statistical fixture. What this means from
a practicle point of view in this race is whether we can be confident enough to oppose horses with One or Two runs this season. They score badly but over half the runners in this race have just 1-2 runs this season so just how safe it will be to oppose them is open to doubt.
In this particular race all 5 winners had at least 3 runs this season and most had more. In the 14 similar handicaps horses with 1-2 runs that season only had a 1-41 record. If you take horses that  had never run in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 race before you find that with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a 0-41 record.

None also had an absence of or more than a month (0-35). That is a problem for CAN´T BUY TIME with just 2 runs in this season and a 9 week break. BIG FELLA THANKS also has no form in Grade 1-2 races and comes out questionably as a horse with just 2 runs this season.
Both AU COURANT and STAN come out badly with an absence and just 2 runs this season. I cant have OUR VIC who drops from 3m 4f just 14 days ago and these statistics show him vulnerable.

* There has been 419 handicap chases between 19f – 22f
* Thats 419 races at any time of year in Class 2 or better
* Horses from 3m 3f or more last time won just 10 races
* None were aged 11 or more and OUR VIC is 12
* Those running between Febuary and April were 0-71
* Those running within 2 weeks were 0-37

I just see OUR VIC having too much to do. I’ve found a
winner like REGAL HEIGHTS aged  9 and exposed with
2 runs this year as that winner like him had Grade 1 form
so I see him in a better light but he still looks underraced this year.
If you look at horses in the 14 similar races at this time of year with an
absence of 7 weeks or more there is a very troublesome 1-69 record.
We know that STAN, AU COURANT and CAN´T BUY TIME  have
that against them but so to does PASCO with a 79 day absence.
I see PANJO BERE as having a good profile and although he’s
not well handicapped he is crucially well raced this year
and looks shortlistable. I also like BATTLECRY a lot. It
has to be considered that Trevor Hemmings has him in
two Cheltenham handicaps and whether that raises the
doubt that this is only a prep race or not I wouldnt know
but He is a talented horse. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance
Chase a couple of years ago and he comes here as Fitter
in each run he has had this year and probably well treated
as well. Against many horses with absences and many in
the race potentially underraced this year BATTLECRY is
a really generous price for a horse with few obvious flaws.
He is very one paced and could be beaten by something
who can quicken better but he looks rock solid to me and
I will be surprised if he doesnt place.

SELECTION

BATTLECRY Each Way 7/1

* I think BATTLECRY is a place banker
* I think his most likely position is 2nd
* If I was having a saver it would be on Pasco

** Blog comment: Price dropped a touch now
13/2 available at William Hill  VC betfred

Posted under horse racing tips

Grand National Tips

Grand National Account Bet

£40 Win DARKNESS  20/1 +
£30 Win  L’AMI   22/1 +
£15 Each Way IDLE TALK 66/1

£100 Staked on the Race

DARKNESS

24/1 Betfair
22/1 William Hill – Sportingbet
20/1 –Corals –LadbrokesTote

L’AMI

28/1 Betfair
25/1 Paddy Power
22/1 William Hillbet365
20/1 Corals –Ladbrokes

IDLE TALK

100/1 + Betfair
66/1 William HillCorals – Ladbrokes -VC- S James – Skybet

**********************************************
**********************************************

AINTREE 4.15

JOHN SMITH’S GRAND NATIONAL CHASE (HANDICAP)
GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (6yo+)  4m4f

7/1 My Will , 8/1 Butler’s Cabin , 10/1 Rambling Minster,
12/1 Black Apalachi , 12/1 Hear The Echo , 12/1 State of Play, 12/1 Big Fella Thanks, 14/1 Comply Or Die , Parsons Legacy 14/1 Darkness, 16/1 L’ami, 16/1 Irish Invader, Southern Vic 16/1 Kilbeggan Blade, 20/1 Snowy Morning , Himalayan Trail, 25/1 Offshore Account , 25/1 Cornish Sett , 25/1 Brooklyn Brownie , 33/1 Cloudy Lane, 33/1 Chelsea Harbour, Knowhere 33/1 Preists Leap , 33/1 Mon Mome , Silver Birch , Reveillez, 33/1 Golden Flight , 33/1 Battlecry, 33/1 Can’t Buy Time, 33/1 Maljimar , 50/1 Stan, 50/1 Eurotrek , Companero, 66/1 Ollie Magern, 66/1 Fleet Street, 66/1 Idle Talk , 66/1 Patsy Hall , 100/1 Fundamentalist , 100/1 Musica Bella , 100/1 Arteea , 100/1 Kelami, 100/1 Zabenz, 100/1 Iron Man , 500/1 Cerium

GRAND NATIONAL SELECTIONS

DARKNESS 20/1  Win Bet

IDLE TALK 66/1 Each Way Bet

L’AMI 20/1  Win Bet

********


=================

To check live best bookmaker prices click below

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/grand-national/4-15—john-smith%27s-grand-national

===============

This Grand National Preview is based on the following

* The 15 Grand Nationals since 1994
* The 64 Similar races at this time of year

The 64 similar races are used as a Guide to check statistics from. The Grand National is Unique and should be seen as such. Using the 64 similar races allows us to test theories out and test the strength of the statistics. If a Grand National statistic is confirmed and is also backed up in the 64 similar races then it can be seen as stronger and more relevant.

64 Similar Long Distance Chases

* Since 1993 there has been 68 Handicap Chases
* That’s 64 races between February and June since 1992
* That’s 64 races over distances of 3m 7f or more
* That’s 64 races in Class 2 or Higher Grade
* The 15 Grand National races are in this total
* So to are 16 Scottish and 15 Midlands National
* It includes 13 Eider Chase’s and other marathon races
* These 64 are the closest similar races to the Grand National

There are some strong angles in these races that are also mirrored in the Grand National. Some of the better trends in the National are also backed up with the results of these other 64 races as well and that should allow us more confidence in ruling horses out

E X P O S E D    H O R S E S

Horses with 21 or more National Hunt runs I call Exposed.
I use the 21 race cut off point as the mark at where a horse goes from being unexposed to being exposed. An exposed horse often struggles to do things that a lighter raced and potentially improving horse is able to do. There are some excellent trends with Exposed horses in the Grand National and All other 64 races at this time of year

EXPOSED HORSES NEED AT LEAST 5 RUNS THIS SEASON

It takes longer for an exposed horse to achieve a level of
form and fitness that you normally need to win a top class
long distance chase. In 64 similar races 20 winners were
exposed but those with under 5 runs that season were awful. They almost always fail to win. I love this statistic because if you look at exposed horses that had under 5 runs that season in the Grand National they had a 0-136 record and it wasn’t as if several came second. Only 1 of these managed to finish 2nd in the race. That was What’s Up Boys in 2002 a horse that won the Hennessy and placed in the Welsh National before finishing 5th in the Cheltenham Gold Cup that year. I’d strongly oppose these underraced horses

* Exposed horses with 1-2-3-4 runs this season want avoiding

* In the Grand National since 1992 they have a 0-136 record

* In 68 Handicaps they have a 3- 314 record

* Those with under 4 runs that season were just 1-188

* Those with under 5 runs that year struggled in many areas

* Those that were aged under 10 were 0-105

* Those that had Past Group 1 form were 0-135

* Those that were not 1st or 2nd last time were 0-241

These horses are unlikely winners of the Grand National
because they fail one or more of the above statistics.

ARTEEA – BATTLECRY – COMPLY OR DIE –  MY WILL
BUTLER´S CABIN -BLACK APALACHI –  CERIUM – ZABENZ
CORNISH SETT –  GOLDEN FLIGHT – HEAR THE ECHO
KILBEGGAN BLADE –  IDLE TALK – KELAMI – PREISTS LEAP
KNOWHERE – CLOUDY LANE  -OFFSHORE ACCOUNT
PARSONS LEGACY – SILVER BIRCH – STATE OF PLAY

HORSES WITH 13 OR MORE CAREER RUNS NEED 3 + RUNS

* We know horses with 21 + runs need 5 runs that season
* Those less exposed get away with slightly less runs
* Horses with 13-20 runs can get away with fewer
* They do however need to have at least 3 runs this season
* In 64 races those that did not won Nothing
* They had a 0-134 record in all 68 races
* The Following Horses are Unlikely winners because of this

REVEILLEZ  and MALJIMAR fail this statistic

Time to take a quick Time out as we have said goodbye to a lot of strongly fancied horses here so lets makes sure that one has not slipped through the net. I don’t think they have.

I don’t mind losing MY WILL at this stage as two runs this
year and 11st 4lbs just look too much for any horse. We’ve
not seen a winner that had 1-2 runs this season when they
had 13 or more runs in any similar race so MY WILL with
32 runs and a tough weight to carry and just doesn’t appeal. CLOUDY LANE also fails my statistic as he fell at the first fence last time meaning he has just had 4 runs this season. That’s not ideal but more importantly for me is that it means that he hasn’t run really in 77 days and I am shortly going to explain that its a big problem. So to is stamina as he did not look like he stayed in last years race when beaten 33 lengths and that was when he was 20lbs well in last year. He lacks size and is now forced to carry 11st 10lbs and I am happy to ignore him as well. COMPLY OR DIE won this last year but he had 11lbs less weight to carry and not once has he looked the same horse this year and he does not appeal to me at all failing several angles and carrying a tough weight.

BLACK APALACHI has also been rejected at an early stage
but I have other problems with him anyway. He’s only won
on soft and heavy ground. He won a Graded Chase in Ireland
last time but horses that win non handicap Graded Chases
have a poor record in all 64 similar races and there were just 5 runners that day. We know horses in this race that came from a race with less than 8 runners are 0-103  in the Grand National. He fell at the second fence in last years race and the key issue for me is that when he did that last year he had 8lbs less weight yet still started at 66/1 and he looks short to me at 14/1 considering he has a weight only Red Rum has carried in decades and his general profile is unsafe. The last 11 winners all ran from ratings at least 6lbs lower than his and I just think there are too many doubts about him as a horse with 11st 5lbs.

BUTLER’S CABIN has been rejected. As an exposed horse
with 4 runs this season he fails an important trend but
other things bother me as well. He’s ran 23 times before
yet has had no form in Grade 1 class. That seems strange
to me and I think it’s a sign that he may lack the class. If you go back to the last 15 Nationals you will see that no exposed horses won without Grade 1 form in the past.
Horses that had 21 or more career runs yet lacked form
in a Grade 1 race were 0-100 and BUTLERS CABIN fails
that. You can also argue that a handicap mark of 147
seems very harsh as he is rated only 134 at the moment.
Last year he fell at Beechers second time round before
stamina became an issue. Not everyone believes he will
stay this trip and whilst its an open issue there is a doubt and the fact he is more exposed this year would worry me greatly especially when he’s had just 1 run since December because of the bad weather. I do respect him but he doesn’t have a winning profile for me.

HEAR THE ECHO has also been rejected as an exposed horse that has had just 4 runs this year. I can understand
why connections were angry that he was given a handicap
mark of 153 and that’s higher than all recent winners and
pushes him to 11st 5lbs. There are several other little issues with him as well that lead me to think its fine to eliminate early on. I don’t see it as an advantage that he comes from 2m 4f last time as no past winner did. Equally a small field Graded Chase has not provided a recent winner either. He hasn’t placed this year. He has already fallen in 3 of his 14 chase runs and a combination of factors trouble me about his chance and he isn’t for me and I don’t see him wining.

KILBEGGAN BLADE is a fancied runner rejected by my earlier statistic. He may be the one from my list of early negatives that could upset the analysis but I do have some
concerns. Like Butlers Cabin He is exposed and lacking
any Grade 1 form and we know horses in the National like
that were 0-100 and that suggests there is a Class doubt.
Its also interesting that he’s only 3 times ran in Graded
Class before. All 3 runs were in Long distance Graded
Chases like this one and he Pulled up all three times.
Could it be these races don’t suit him or is he a small
field horse. Either way he has never looked like winning
a race like this and I wonder whether the lack of Grade 1
form for an exposed horse is a Clue that he may not have
the class. His W W W 2 preparation isn’t really the norm
in the Grand National even though most were hurdle runs.
Go back 12 months and he was an outsider and out of the
handicap in the Scottish National and Pulled up and now
people are expecting him to win an English National a
year later when all he has done is run in once Chase in
a year and three hurdle runs. I don’t think he is the one
and whilst I may be wrong he doesn’t appeal to me.

ENGLISH HORSES ABSENT 60 + DAYS

In the Grand National the record of  English horses that
had an absence of 7 weeks or more is a worrying 0-116
and that implies that you do not want an English horse
coming back from a long absence. The same is true in
all similar long distance chases as well. I would not say
a horse with an absence of over 60 days couldn’t win but
its a significant problem to overcome and a 0-116 record
in this race shows this. These horses fail this.

EUROTREK – STATE OF PLAY –  ZABENZ
PARSONS LEGACY – COMPANERO

STATE OF PLAY doesn’t do it for me. He’s now reached the
tipping point where he moves from unexposed to exposed
status. He has to do that with just two runs this season and no horse has done that anywhere close to as exposed as he is and throw in a weight above 11st to add to the problem and a longer absence than any past winner has had and it suddenly looks a difficult task and that’s before even going down the French Bred argument I am avoiding this year

Time to consider what Age is suitable for a Grand National
Bet. I agree with the trends that argue 6 and 7 year olds are too young. They  haven’t won in 70 years and very few even finish the course  so I am ignoring all horses that age. The main horse this affects is BIG FELLA THANKS. He has only had 6 chase starts and fell in one of those and that is very inexperience yet he still has to carry a bigger weight than most past winners and all this for a horse that was running in a Novice Chase for the first time just over 5 months ago. I doubt he has the profile to win. He lost all 4 of his early chase runs and he just looks weak and I couldn’t overlook an Age trend that’s lasted 70 years with this horse.  If you think about it he isn’t actually 7 for another 24 days and that’s not been picked up anywhere. CAN´T BUY TIME is also rejected as a 7 year old and he is another who is not actually 7 years old until April 29th. I don’t think a 6 or 7 year old will win.

Horses aged 13 can be opposed as well but the only horse
who fails that EUROTREK has been accounted for. I think
its worth looking at some of the Eight year olds in this race. Horses aged 8 haven’t the best recent record. They won with Party Politics in 1991 but since then they have a weak 1-79 record. I think this age group are slightly inferior to the horses aged 9 and 10. What strikes me about some of the 8 year olds this year is that some of them are not actually 8 for a while. The past 8 year old winners like Bindaree and Party Politics were all foaled early and had also reached their 8th Birthday by the time the race was run. In this race IRON MAN fails that and is only a very old seven year old and much as he probably won run he wont win if he does.

I would have to take out the Seasonal debutants and the
horses with one race this season. These types simply don’t
win this race or any similar long distant handicap chase
and It would amaze me if one won this race this year so
these horses are rejected.

ARTEEA- CERIUM – EUROTREK – SILVER BIRCH
GOLDEN FLIGHT – ZABENZ – IN THE LOOP
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT

You need to be against some of the impossible to fancy
rank outsiders who have little hope of winning a race like
this. It is not time effective to write long paragraphs about why 200/1 chances are statistically weak so I will just list some of the huge priced rags that need a miracle to win

FLEET STREET looks too inexperienced and complicated for a race like this and was after all a Novice last season. MUSICA BELLA and STAN make no appeal. There is no sign FUNDAMENTALIST or PATSY HALL can win this. Its almost impossible to see OLLIE MAGERN win. I find it hard to go with MON MOME. Although beaten miles in last years race he did have excuses and has a better profile this year but I don’t think he stays this far. All his long distance chase form in recent years has been disappointing. His run in this race last year suggests he isn’t good enough. His recent form suggests he isn’t at his best and whilst I am ignoring the fact he is a French Bred horses like him that were exposed lacking Grade 1 form do have a 0-100 record in this race suggesting they lack the necessary class and the 2008 renewal suggests he is not the winner. CHELSEA HARBOUR got round in 9th last year but was beaten 56 lengths and that was from a 10lbs lower mark. He has to try and win this carrying a bigger weight than any past winner. He also looks badly handicapped and hasn’t had a preparation similar to any recent winner and he has far too much to do.

SNOWY MORNING

SNOWY MORNING was a gallant 3rd in last years race beaten just over 5 lengths. He was well treated last year off 145 but this year he has to race off a mark of 156 and that means a weight of 11st 8lbs a near impossible task. Since 1992 horses with 11st 3lbs or more are 0-77 in this race so 11st 5lbs will take an immense effort and as his
preparation has been unorthodox and mirrored by none of the recent winners he wouldn’t be my choice.

BROOKLYN BROWNIE

BROOKLYN BROWNIE does appeal to a few people and there are worse bets at 33/1  but he does not look classy enough for me. Every recent winner of this race had ran in Graded Class before and he has not done that. He’s never been out of Listed class over hurdles or fences and that suggests a class gap he may struggle to make up. There has been 100 exposed horses in this race with no Grade 1 form and none of them won and that’s just considering Grade 1 form. This horse has no form in any Graded race. Look at the 60 horses that finished 1st 2nd 3rd and 4th in this race in the last 15 years. You will find only six horses that had no Graded Class form before. The only one that was exposed was Blue Charm in 1999 who was second in the 1999 Grand National. Its far from ideal. He has never ran a long distance chase before beyond 3m 2f and that’s not an ideal preparation and neither is winning a 4 runner race last time in 0-115 class. I would also be extremely worried that he has ran just once since November 2008. I don’t think he is good enough.

IRISH INVADER 28/1

This horse has a strange profile and certainly not the
norm for a Grand National winner. He is exposed yet has to come from an 18f race and a small field chase and has won his last 3 races. If you take the 64 similar handicaps between February and April that include this race. If you look at exposed horses like IRISH INVADER you find that those that ran at only 2m 6f or less last time were just 1-75 and that’s a worry. That sole winner was Bobby Jo in the 1999 Grand National who ran in a 2m hurdle before winning it. Horses that were exposed and that came from Chases over 2m 6f or under had a 0-67 record and that has to be a concern. It would be more forgivable had he been an unexposed type but this is a horse with 28 career runs. He has been on the go since July and has ran 7 times since September last year more than all past winners and winning 3 races this year hasn’t been the norm in recent years. You can also fail him on the statistic that shows exposed horses in the National that had never ran in a Grade 1 race before had a 0-100 record. There is not much 3m handicap chase form in his profile and no form at longer  and because he is exposed I am not prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt in overcoming an unusual preparation and statistically he just is not there to consider as a selection.

HIMALAYAN TRAIL 33/1

He was bought by the Owner of Monty’s Pass the 2003
winner who wants to try and win the race  for the second
time. He bought the horse out of Sue Smith’s yard. I’d
worry that the horse only has 8 chase runs. That’s pretty
inexperienced especially as he has only completed in 6
Chase runs. You can argue he jumped badly the only time he had these fences in the Beecher Chase but I’m ignoring that as he hated the ground that day and he has jumped well enough to win a Midlands National. Eight Chase runs though is not an advantage in a race like this and he has not shown much at all this year although he has been running mainly over hurdles. He is one of those horses that I want to shortlist and I think he has a chance but his inexperience does worry me. So to does the lack of Graded Form in his profile. We know very few horses that were placed in this race had never run in Graded Form before.

I see the Grand National winner coming from 5 Horses

DARKNESS
L’AMI
IDLE TALK
RAMBLING MINSTER
SOUTHERN VIC

SOUTHERN VIC 33/1

If you ignore the fact that SOUTHERN VIC has fallen on his only run at Aintree you can give him more than an outside chance of proving Ruby Walsh wrong. He would be in the top 2 or 3 profiles in the race. He has a reasonably similar profile to the 2002 and the 1997 winners much as he’s older and not identical in profile. His sire won the race last year. You would be happier on softer ground but I don’t see him completely out of this on good ground. Friendless in the betting since rejected by Ruby Walsh he’s now backable at 33/1 and that’s a big price. SOUTHERN VIC has a better chance than that. He is “shortlistable” and worth considering for a saver in the race.

RAMBLING MINSTER 12/1

RAMBLING MINSTER has a reasonably similar profile to the 1998 winner Earth Summit much as he is older and doesn’t fit the Earth Summit profile like a Glove. Statistically he does not sail through the requirements to win this race with flying colours. We know exposed horses that have no Grade 1 form in the race are 0-100 and he fails that. He has won twice in a row which hasn’t been the norm in past years and he will have to raise his game again to win this. That said I think he has a big chance and Brings Guaranteed Stamina to the races and that’s something I need. RAMBLING MINSTER is in the Top 4 profiles in the race and will go well and could win and very nearly made my shortlist

GRAND NATIONAL SELECTION

DARKNESS 20/1  Win Bet

IDLE TALK 50/1 Each Way Bet

L’AMI 25/1  Win Bet

L’AMI 25/1

L’AMI has had two chances to win this race but he shouldn’t be judged harshly on that. He fell early in 2008 but that was a one off and he is a proven safe jumper. He was well beaten in the 2007 race but he had just had a hard race in Kauto Star’s first Gold Cup and don’t forget he had 11st 8lbs that year a weight that hasn’t been carried for decades. He is a French Bred and many people say French Breds don’t win this race. I don’t see that as a good trend anymore. Since 2000 there were 3 French Breds that were runner up in the race and a further two were 3rd and that’s a stat waiting to be busted in my view. L’AMI has won on soft ground at Cheltenham over 4 miles and carrying a big weight so its far from sensible to assume he cant stay this with a very good Racing weight. Its no wonder McCoy waited for a long time to prefer Butlers Cabin. I think he has that wrong and I bet it was a marginal decision. I do
like his profile. He was 2nd in the Cross Country at Cheltenham just as Silver Birch was in 2007 before winning this and running his profile in the last 15 Nationals has produced 5 winners.

* Exposed horses with 5-6 runs this season
* Having ran within 7 weeks
* Starting under 50/1
* Having had Past Grade 1 form before
* Carrying under 11st weight
* Since 1996 5 winners had that profile
* L’AMI has a great chance to win this

DARKNESS and IDLE TALK were both placed in the 2006 Sun Alliance Chase and the similarities don’t end there. They both come from the Strong Gale line and although many see that as a concern with limited Stamina I am far from sure that’s right. Many Strong Gales stay very well. You can point to GVA Ireland winning a Midlands Grand National in 2006 on Heavy Ground over an extended 4m 1f and with 11st 5lbs on his back and he was a “Strong Gale”. So to was Mini Sensation who won over 4 miles on Soft Ground and won a Welsh National on Heavy ground. How about Shotgun Willy who has a second in the Scottish National and won a Red Square Vodka over 3m 5f. Plenty of these horses stay well and I hope this pair do as well as they are the outstanding candidates for me and big prices.

IDLE TALK

This horse should not be 50/1 . Back in 2006 IDLE TALK
was 2nd in the Sun Alliance won by Star De Mohaison.
Interesting that in 3rd place that day was DARKNESS a
horse I also feel has a big chance. This horse’s jumping
went to pieces back in 2007 when he fell in this race and
the two runs before that and in the Scottish National. He
was too inexperienced to have a chance in the 2007 race.
Since 2008 the horse has ran in 8 more Chases and has
not fallen since and he has had Yogi Breisner helping
him jump and concentrate. He has jumped well since then and looks accomplished and He managed to jump round without a problem in this race last year.  He was 14th in this race last year. He was going sweetly in the first half dozen before he felt the pinch and eased home in his own time. He may not have stayed. That could be his biggest problem but that’s far from Proven and I’d also argue he was out of form at the time – had more weight than this year and had a much busier season taking in some big races. Trevor Hemmings his owner loves this race and is on record saying that they left the Grand National behind in 2008 after a hard race at the Cheltenham Festival as this is a horse that doesn’t want a lot of racing. This year He is Fresher and ran well in the Grimthorpe Chase last time out. He has a lot of class for a lightweight. He  hasn’t been trained to show his best this year until today.  The only trend he fails today is my opening one showing that exposed horses need 5 or more runs that season. IDLE TALK  does fail that with him having just 4 runs this year but I am prepared to overlook it as he is 50/1 and a Class horse with a Lightweight. I think there are several winners similar to IDLE TALK we can draw comfort from. In 2004 Amberleigh House won this race when exposed. He had Past Graded form. He came here beaten 27 lengths into 5th in the Grimthorpe Chase before the National and he won having 5 runs that season and
10st 10lbs. IDLE TALK comes from the Grimthorpe Chase as well and achieved more in  that race.  He has 5lbs less weight than Amberleigh House did in2004. Whilst IDLE TALK has just 4 runs this season and Amberleigh House had 5 runs it is also relevant that IDLE TALK is 2 years younger and as a 10 year old is a much better age. There has been several low weight exposed horses with Graded Class that have won this race like Bindaree (2002). I would like him
to show he can stay and that he’s a Born again Chaser
that’s thrown in off a career low mark. That may be a
bit of wishful thinking but at 50/1 and 66/1 I think it
is a brilliant risk to find out.

D  A  R  K N  E  S   S

Concerns

* Not the best Jumper
* Will he handle a big field ?
* Has he enough Stamina ?

I felt he had a superb profile but my biggest worry was
his jumping especially in a big field and my next concern
stamina. First of all if you look at the last 15 renewals and horses that had his profile its very interesting

* Horses with 13-20 career starts
* Horses that came from a Class 2 Handicap
* Horses that ran 32-49 days ago
* There were only 5 National horses with that profile
* They finished W W W 6
* Comply or Die won in 2008 with the same profile
* Silver Birch won in 2007 with the same profile
* Red Marauder won in 2001 with the same profile

DARKNESS comes out very well on those simple stats. He is a horse with a serious chance. Whilst we are discussing
his positives I will stay there. DARKNESS is now rated 151
yet is allowed to run in this race off a mark of 143 so is well handicapped and officially 8lbs well in. In terms of ability DARKNESS is easily good enough to win a National off this mark having won a Feltham and placed in a Sun Alliance. This was a serious Novice Chaser two years ago. He has a lot of class. Injured in 2006 Normally I’d be worried that he has had just 3 runs in 3 seasons but as he is not unexposed that does not worry me. You only have to go back to Comply Or Die who won last years race having had just 4 runs in the previous 2 years when unexposed and he was placed in a Sun Alliance as DARKNESS was as well. This horse has a serious chance. He missed Cheltenham this year which is probably an advantage. He could easily win this. Looking at some of the Negatives. Sometimes his jumping is a bit shaky and he wouldn’t look the most likely to get round and I accept that and know its a risk. Some people point to the fact that He has a PU PU record in both long distance handicap chases He has ran in before but that doesn’t worry me. He had any number of excuses for those races. He was injured in the Scottish Grand National in 2006 and trying to win a Welsh National this year with 1 run in over 2 years was a near impossible task. It doesn’t worry me at all but I feel you can argue that he is not proven in a big field and there is a lot of small field races in his form. It could be an issue and it is a
worry. You can argue that he isn’t a certain stayer and there are potential cracks in his breeding and that’s also a doubt. In conclusion a brilliant profile – doubts about jumping – big fields and his stamina but those concerns are factored into the price and I think if he stays upright he will win.

**********************************************
**********************************************

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

—————————————————————————
Check For Best Prices at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/odds/horses
—————————————————————————

Posted under Major Horse Races

Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip

Saturday Racing Tip

A snippet of the anlaysis from my full service today for the free blog.

KEMPTON 3.10

RACING POST CHASE (HANDICAP)
GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)  3m

4/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Hold Em, 10/1 Nacarat, 12/1
Fier Normand, 12/1 Possol, 14/1 Conna Castle, 14/1 Fleet
Street, 14/1 Lacdoudal, 14/1 Ungaro, 16/1 Oedipe, 16/1
Silverburn, 20/1 Laskari, 20/1 Piraya, 25/1 Battlecry, 33/1 Endless Power, 33/1 Nozic, 40/1 New Little Bric, 40/1 Stan, 66/1 Billyvoddan, 100/1 Ollie Magern.

The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3 miles and
we now have 15 renewals of this race. Some statistics should be able to narrow the field down. You want a horse thats ran over at least 3 miles before. A Guaranteed stayer and horses that prepped over 2m 4f or shorter have poor records so I am against NACARAT who has real stamina issues and also ENDLESS POWER whose up in distance. OLLIE MAGERN is too old. Horses that had just 1 or 2 runs that season had terrible records. only Innox managed it from 49 that tried and that was not run at Kempton and ideally you want more runs this season. Therefore I am against SILVERBURN who may not be at home over this trip. Other underraced horses are BILLYVODDAN- OEDIPE -NEW LITTLE BRICK and LACDOUDAL. You really dont want to be coming into the race having ran poorly. Last time out winners won 11 of the last 15 races and every past winner was 1-2-3-4-5 last time out with just one falling. STAN – NOZIC fail that. Didn’t feel BATTLECRY did enough last time. Neither did PIRAYA a horse with too many falls recently. You want a high class and consistent horse thats been running well all year. The Last 13 winners  of this race ran 48 seperate times in the season they won. In these 48 races in the season they won – the last 13 winners managed to either Win or Place in a very high 42 out of 48 races. You want consistency here so I am taking on the Irish runner CONNA CASTLE whose hardly placed at all. Its interesting that BIG FELLA THANKS and HOLD EM have had just 5 career races over fences and thats not many. You can argue BIG FELLA THANKS has just 4.5 chase runs as he has fallen before. The lightest raced chaser to win this was
Gloria Victus with just 5 career starts so it has been done but He was “special” and a monster of a horse. The last 13 horses that won this had  7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 chase runs. There were a couple with 6 runs and Gloria Victus with 5 but its a big ask. I dont feel HOLD EM will have the class to defy that and he is rated lower than most past winners. I am also opposing BIG FELLA THANKS. Inexperience is one reason. Then you have the price which is short enough anyway and many are raising the fact that all his best form is on a left handed track and Kempton could be an issue for him and he hasnt got round the only time he ran here. I do not think LASKARI has the class or stamina from a sire thats never had a 3m winner and he has been on the go too long for me. FIER NORMAND isnt for me. He has 2 runs this year and he fell in his 3rd start so technically he is underraced this year
and I would be concerned he will be having a Cheltenham “prep” race and Jonjo has never had a horse in this race that could be sighted with binoculars. I am shortlisting these three

UNGARO – POSSOL – FLEET STREET

I dont see why UNGARO cant win. He fell at the second
fence in last years race but is it not interesing that last
year he started only 5/1 yet he carries 13lbs less weight
today. He has prepped in the same race as last year and
I give gim a good chance. I have found a winner that was
similar to POSSOL so he is shortlisted. FLEET STREET
also comes ot nicely statistically. I am going with an e/w
bet on UNGARO in this race

* He loves it here and won a Grade 1 here
* He was half the price in last years race with far more weight
* Last time out he was second to todays favourite
* Big Fella Thanks beat him by 11 lengths
* At Todays weights UNGARO has a much better chance

SELECTION – UNGARO Each Way 14/1  BSquare

centrebet are currently showing 112/1 for this horse

Don’t expect to get paid out at that however . it looks like a palpable error to me.

Think what they meant was 12/1

Posted under horse racing tips