A nice winner here last Saturday with Golden Desert who won at 16/1 SP.

See http://www.horse-betting-blog.co.uk/horse-racing-tips/newmarket-betting-advice/

You would have made extra cash profit of course if you took the early odds 18/1 advised here.

On to today.  Can we make it two in a row?

Probably not.  I feel we have value on our side but a 6/1 shot even if say 9/2 true odds is more likely to lose than win on the day.

Bet such horses 1000 times however and you should come out ahead in the long run.

 

N e w m a r k e t  3.35

11/4 Jameel, 11/2 Art History, 6/1 Topolski
13/2 Butler, 8/1 Incendo, 8/1 Warlu Way, 9/1 Greylami
16/1 The Betchworth Kid, 20/1 Red Anthem
25/1 Big Creek, 25/1 Itlaaq.

* This is a 12f Handicap for 0-100 rated horses
* There are 53 similar races at this time of year
* JAMEEL is very lightly raced
* We had 2 winners like him from Maidens
* Both came from 12f and he comes from 10f
* Neither had 1-2 runs that season
* I looked at 3 year olds from 10f races
* Those like JAMEEL with under 7 runs were 0-23
* Those like JAMEEL with under 7 that year were 0-22
* JAMEEL does have flaws in his profile
* TOPOLSKI had a superb season over hurdles last year
* He won all 3 and now returns back to the flat
* Long absence and I am far from convinced about him
* Horses like him score poorly and this is a hot race
* His connections say he is only 90% fit
* ITLAAQ and BIG CREEK didnt do enough last time
* RED ANTHEM may need more runs
* THE BETCHWORTH KID has been absent too long
* No exposed horse won without 7 + runs that season
* GREYLAMI fails that and looks short of runs
* INCENDO also fails that with 6 runs
* INCENDO is exposed and hasnt run in 2 weeks
* Similar horses struggled with a 2-91 record
* Both had more backclass and came from better races
* INCENDO didnt really do much for me

P o s s i b l e s

* BUTLER is 4 and well beaten over 12f last time
* WARNES WAY has the same problem
* Neither come out well on their latest starts
* I looked at horses aged 4 well beaten last time
* These horses score badly but there is hope there
* Last years winner of this overcame a similar problem
* If either bounce back they could be a threat
* Results show not many 4 year olds like them have
* Last years winner had a recent race
* Both horses have been absent over a Month
* I looked at horses aged 4 absent over a Month
* Those with 9 + runs had a 1-40 record
* That horse won down from the 14f Ebor
* BUTLER – WARNES WAY just come up short

S e l e c t i o n

* ART HISTORY is 3 and won at 10f last time
* I found 2 similar winners who were a close match
* ART HISTORY is a positive
* ART HISTORY Each Way 6/1 looks a solid bet

6/1 at Coral -  Ladbrokes – betfred – bet365

Full live odds can be seen at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-10-01/newmarket/15-35/betting/

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Good main bet winner last week on the blog with Russian George drifting out a touch to 11/4 and winning.

Today we are back to normal style with just a small snippet from the main message.

Not our main bet of the day as paying clients do not like it when we post them up here …. so we do it very rarely.

Join Up Properly I suggest.

On to today and a bit of interest at Goodwood.

GOODWOOD 2.25

Bluebay Handicap
(Previously Known As The Shell House Stakes)
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 7f

9/2 Bullwhip, 9/2 Desert Creek, 8/1 Hajoum, 9/1 Fathsta
9/1 Light From Mars, 10/1 Marajaa 12/1 Spirit Of Sharjah
12/1 Woodcote Place, 14/1 Coasting 14/1 Gallagher
20/1 Carnaby Street, 25/1 Elna Bright 33/1 Aspectus.

* This is a 0-98 handicap over 7f
* Goodwood have had 17 renewals of this race
* There has been 38 similar races in September

Horses aged 7 and more have struggled in these races and have a weak 1-50 record. WOODCOTE PLACE is 7 and has both a career high mark and an absence. MARAJAA is 8 and also has a career high mark and no recent race. ASPECTUS has to go as well as a 7yo with a poor last run. Exposed horses from a 6f race struggled. Those without a run in 2 weeks won nothing so FATHSTA looks opposable. Horses from 3yo handicaps have a 0-14 record in this race. Those from 3yo handicaps over 7f have a 0-29 record in the 38 similar races. BULLWHIP fails that as does CARNABY STREET. Initially it wasnt a statistic that I believed in but in 38 races there were 11 winners aged 3 and the ones that had form in Listed or Group races before had a 0-71 record. CARNABY STREET and BULLWHIP have got Group class form and that undermines their chance. I thought ELNA BRIGHT had been absent too long for an exposed horse.
COASTING comes out badly with his absence. Horses with big
weights have struggled in this race. SPIRIT OF SHARJAH looks hard to fancy with his weight and a career high mark as well as coming from the worst draw. If you take exposed horses from an 8f race you find a 3-47 record. LIGHT FROM MARS shares that profile. However none of the 3-47 winners were aged 5 so I cant match him and they all ran within 2 weeks and he doesnt. None of them had more than 9st either so with 9st 9lbs and the other angles he fails I see LIGHT FROM MARS running ok but not winning. There are 3 horses I felt I could shortlist in this.

SHORTLIST

HAJOUM – 1 similar winner who was less exposed. Ground doubt.

GALLAGHER – Complicated to read but shortlistable

DESERT CREEK – 1 similar winner but not an exact match

No outstanding profiles in this race. I notice DESERT CREEK and GALLAGHER come from the best trial race at Goodwood. That race provided the winner in 1993 1994 2000 2005 2006. I think GALLAGHER has a far better chance than it looks. He is coming down the weights. When he reaches the point where his ability excedes his rating he will win. Not certain to be today but at 20/1 and more I think he is overpriced. HAJOUM has a decent chance and I suspect his chance is about handling softer ground and how much it has or has not dried out. My problem is just how to stake the race with 3 shortlisted so I go this way

Win Bet – GALLAGHER 16/1
Win Bet – HAJOUM 10/1

Saver Bet to break level on DESERT CREEK

Current best odds available at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/

Posted under horse racing tips

Before we move to today’s racing  a couple of points to cover.

1 – The Worst Tip Ever !

Last weekend’s blog tip was the worst tip ever.
Not that Maku ran a bad race finishing 2nd at 7/1 beaten by a head.
The analysis was almost spot on.
The horror was in the fact that Maku actually ran on Friday not Saturday when the tip was posted.
This was genuine human error.
My admin man posted it up. He was away from home confused with a borrowed PC and obviously working with insufficient caffeine in his system.

I have told him if he ever posts up a free blog tip again the day after it runs ..  to post up  a winner ..not a horse beaten by a head

2 – Full Service Cheap Price Cheltenham Deal

We are running a half price offer now for full membership.
Join today and your months membership obviously covers the upcoming Cheltenham festival.
If you are a regular blog reader you will know the sort of detail we go into.
For Cheltenham I work even harder for clients.
I doubt you will get a more comprehensive Cheltenham service anywhere.

You know you want in for Cheltenham so just do it now while it’s half price.

Here is the cheap price link
*************************************************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
*************************************************

A sample message from last year is at the link below

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-betting-advice.asp

On to Today

For full members we have a full account bet in the 4.05

Out of respect for them we can’t post that here.

A small snippet from the extra analysis section of the main message is copied below for you however.

KEMPTON 3.05

Racing Post Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m

7/2 Nacarat, 4/1 Fistral Beach, 9/2 Kilcrea Castle,
8/1 Madison Du Berlais, 12/1 Atouchbetweenacara
14/1 Oedipe, 16/1 Le Burf, 16/1 Piraya, 16/1 Private Be
20/1 Razor Royale, 28/1 Something Wells, 33/1 Bible Lord
66/1 Ollie Magern.

* The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3m
* There has been 15 renewals of this race.
* There has been 70 similar races in Febuary
* Thats 70 Handicap Chases at 3m in Class 2 or higher

I think we can rule out Something Wells- Ollie Magern and
Bible Lord who wants a smaller field than this. PIRAYA may
also want a smaller field. All his dissapointing runs come in field sizes of 11 or more runners.
Horses with 1 run this year score badly. Those like ATOUCHBETWEENACARA who
have to step up in trip struggle and he didnt do enough for
me last time. OEDIPE has just 1 run this year and I don’t see enough in his profile to
forgive him that. Experience could be a problem for FISTRAL BEACH who has had
just 3 runs over Chases. The lightest raced chaser to win this was the high class
Gloria Victus who won this in 2000 with just five  chase starts and went on to run
in the Gold Cup after this race. It’s asking a lot for  FISTRAL BEACH to win
with just 3 runs. The 15 winners of this race all had more experience.
They had 6 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 13 chase runs.
I am looking elsewhere. I dont know if LE BURF will have the class.
Most recent winners of this were unexposed. He isnt and none came from
Class 3 races or lower like him. He  isnt proven beyond doubt over this
distance and having never placed or won above a Class 3 grade before
he may just be found out on a career high mark.

NACARAT won this easily last year by 11 lengths although
he was in much better form last year.  This year he has been beaten miles in
all 3 races albeit in top class races. His issue is can he come back to form -
and can he show he stays this far on much softer ground than last year and
with a longer than ideal absence. If you look at the winners of this race in the
past you want a consistent horse thats been running well all year and NACARAT
does not fit that pattern. The Last 14  winners of this race ran 50 seperate times
in the season they won. In these 50 races in the season they won – the winners
managed to either Win or Place in 44 out of the 50 races. It’s
a strong statistic that shows you want a horse thats running well all season and
coming here with several wins and places this year. You want consistency as
much as anything else in this race and Last time out winners won 12 of the last
16 races  and every past winner was 1-2-3-4-5 last time out with just one
falling. NACARAT hasnt placed since 2009 and I reject him.

SHORTLIST

RAZOR ROYALE – Best outsider – Small chance – Shortlistable

KILCREA CASTLE – Profile is quite good and a strong runner

MADISON DU BERLAIS – Class horse and every chance

PRIVATE BE – The arguments for him are persuasive

SELECTION

I dont really want to be with Madison Du Berlais as this
is a Momentum race. I would want a better stable for this
class than Kilcrea Castle. You can look at Private Be in
two ways. Ideally I wouldnt want a 11yo up in trip but
the arguments for him on the track and with some of his
form is persuasive off 10st weight so a split stake bet.

PRIVATE BE 10/1
RAZOR ROYALE 20/1

Split Stake Bet

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips

Every meeting gets the go ahead today. Some very

interesting and significant Jumping action. Much of it is more Positioning for

Cheltenham. Plenty of races that don’t make any appeal to me as they throw up

short priced favourites or impossible to asses handicaps.

The racing selection for the blog this weekend however is

at Lingfield.

Lingfield 4.05

TITAN TRIUMPH Each Way 100/30 at Corals

There seems to be a school of though that TITAN

TRIUMPH is unproven in this class and has a lot to do. You can definitely make that argument but horses trying exactly what he attempts today have a strong record. I felt he was highly impressive last time and that he meets a mixed bag of unfit and badly treated horses. He will need luck in running as they all do
here but I thought he had a strong chance and is good enough to win.

LINGFIELD 4.00

William Hill JANUARY SALE – BET NOW! HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) 1m

5/2 Titan Triumph, 3/1 Atlantic Story, 5/1 Red Somerset, 8/1 Ace Of Hearts,

8/1 Samarinda, 10/1 Capricorn Run, 16/1 Kayak, 20/1 Fajr, 20/1 Swiss Act.

* This is an 8f handicap for horses rated 0-108

* Its a class handicap and there’s been 51 similar races

* ACE OF HEARTS has to go aged 10 absent 107 days

* Thats asking too much as he has a career high mark

* FAYR won this race last year but had a recent run

* He is now a 7 year old absent 56 days

* I don’t want an older horse with a long absence like him

* KAYAK is out as a 7yo absent 42 days

* I don’t want SWISS ACT as he has ran once since June

* CAPRICORN RUN is not too bad statistically

* Not many horses come via conditions races though

* RED SOMERSET comes from that same race

* He is also reasonably fine statistically

* RED SOMERSET has never won in this class though

* He has never won from this handicap mark either

* He has never won off higher than 86 or above 0-90 class

* Today he is off 89 and facing a 0-108

* SAMARINDA is fine statistically but has a tough mark

* He has never won from his current mark

* ATLANTIC STORY has some issues to overcome

* None of the 51 winners came from Listed class as he does

* He is also a 7 year old with a 31 day absence

* He also has a career high mark to overcome

* TITAN TRIUMPH looks the progressive improver

* He has just won his last 4 races

* He has just won 0-74 – 0-75 – 0-80 and a 0-84 handicap

* This is clearly a step up in Class

* To counter that he is a fast improving well handicapped horse

* I looked at horses in 51 races with similar profiles

* Horses that won their last 2 races in Class 3 or lower

* Horses that came into these races like that scored well

* When they came from 8f or longer handicaps they were 6-14

* The Males that tried it starting under 12/1 were 6-12

* This suggests in form improvers can bridge the class gap

* TITAN TRIUMPH is my choice to improve past these

* With many potentially unfit and badly handicapped

* TITAN TRIUMPH may be able to win in this class

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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For Best Prices at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/odds/horses

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Posted under horse racing tips