Kempton Horse Racing Tip

A nice winner last week for readers here.

Lingfield has been abandoned but I suppose it
is a bonus that Kempton has survived. That is
the only English card today. For paying clients
I have previewed the first six races there only
leaving the finale alone a race that looks a bit
too dangerous.

I have three staked bets for them today.
A short price – A Medium price – And a Big Price

Here on the free horse betting blog I will stick up
for you the medium price option.

Kempton   1.45

9/4 Glastonberry, 11/4 Climaxfortackle, 4/1 Big Sylv
8/1 Amosite, 8/1 Chambles, 10/1 Zing Wing
12/1 Dancing Welcome, 25/1 Ishiamiracle.

This is a fillies handicap over 7f. Not too many of
these races are run at this time of year and that
makes it harder to judge things like age. So far
none of the races went to horses aged 7 or over
so both DANCING WELCOME and  AMOSITE
are unlike any winners. I would not trust such a
stat based on a small sample size but they did
not attract me anyway. ZING WING doesnt feel
safe with his absence. ISHIAMIRACLE is out of
form. I see a strong case for GLASTONBERRY
who’s been in fine form but she has very little in
the way of backclassbackclass and she has to
give weight to horses who have achieved more
than her. CHAMBLES isn’t out of this with fair
excuses last time. BIG SYLV’s profile is good
enough to consider and CLIMAXFORTACKLE
also comes out well and has a good recent run.

Conclusion

Given the prices I originally thought  there was a case to make
about overlooking Glastonberry for an alternative
each way bet but a non runner has ruined the each way frame of the race.
Much depends on how BIG SYLV
copes down in trip and on her first run on a right
handed track and how CLIMAXFORTACKLE gets
on going up in distance. I just prefer the latter.

Selection

* Win CLIMAXFORTACKLE 3/1 victor chandlerstan james

Posted under horse racing tips

Cheltenham Horse Racing Bet

Cheltenham Horse Racing Bet

CHELTENHAM 2.35

9/4 Carruthers, 5/2 Madison Du Berlais, 3/1 Inchidaly Rock, 12/1 Joe Lively, 12/1 Taranis, 20/1 Ollie Magern, 33/1 Knowhere.

The Argento chase is a Grade 2 chase over 25f. The history
of this race demands a horse that has ran in a Grade 1 race
or a Grade 2 at the very least. All past winners did that and 9 out of 10 had Grade 1 before.
They also show you want a penalised horse as well which means in this race carrying more
than 11st. Therefore I am ignoring TARANIS with a massive absence.
OLLIE MAGERN is out unpenalised and
older than any past winner. INCHIDALY ROCK does not
appeal as he has no Graded form and none of the winners
came from a Novice Chase like him. Last year JOE LIVELY
won this but he was in much better form then and I couldnt
trust him  aged 11 with an inferior preperation. KNOWHERE
is too old. I dont fancy any of the above. This is between
MADISON DU BERLAIS – CARRUTHERS. What bothers
me about CARRUTHERS is past winners came from Listed
or a graded Chases and he comes from a Graduation Chase
and has fewer chase starts than every other past winner.
MADISON DU BERLAIS  has a solid profile and comes
from the best trial race the King George at Kempton. Its
pretty cleat he is best on a Flatter track but he has placed here at the Cheltenham Festival
and does have some form here. I am going with CARRUTHERS as he loves smaller
fields and has a great record in them.

Selection – CARRUTHERS

Was best priced 9/4 earlier today when I sent this out to full members.

Has shortened up a  touch since then.
19/10 CanBet   ( a bookmaker who run an interesting bonus of giving you
a percentage of any losses abck at the end of each month )

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip

Saturday Free Horse Racing Tip

NEWMARKET 1.50

SIGN UP BONUS AT BETINTERNET.COM
MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 4) (3yo) 1m

2/1 Invisible Man, 3/1 Merdaam, 4/1 Present Alchemy, 7/1 Kapsiliat, 10/1 Secret Life, 12/1 Bourne, 12/1 Moojeh, 14/1 Kimberley Rocks, 20/1 Bengal Tiger, 33/1 A Lot Of Red, 33/1 Kilkenny Bay, 66/1 Cake Stand, 66/1 Inside Trade, 66/1 Laminka, 66/1 Supera.

Not a lot to say in the Opening maiden. I think I would have to go down the Each Way double route and consider that the best horse to do that with is INVISIBLE MAN. In the last 7 renewals of this race 4 winners were unraced shocks at double figure prices so much as you can see 20/1 bar 3 and assume it is a race full of unfancied horses its rarely as simple as that and I think the each way double makes sense. I have chosen INVISIBLE MAN as the selection as I was concerned about his main rivals. MERDAAM could be being handicapped on his 3rd run and KAPSILIAT is a filly from a 6f race and just one career run. I’d be inclined to oppose her especially from a low draw. INVISIBLE MAN may not win but he is likely to place. There were 24 horses starting favourite in all similar races with 3 or more runs as INVISIBLE MAN has and 20 of the 24 that tried placed or won. That suggests to me the saftest bet here is INVISIBLE MAN in an each way double. My best suggestion as the second leg is Riggins in the 2.20 at Newmarket who should go very close as well.

Posted under horse racing tips

Racing Tip For Saturday 6th September

Mathematician 162

Saturday 6th September

2 Account Bets in the 7.50pm Full Members Only

1 Further Selection in the 7.20pm

Todays Other Non-Account Selection

Wolverhampton 7.20

GARSTANG 16/1

Win Bet

( blog comment: 16/1 earlier when advised to full members best now as I type 14/1 bet365, betfred , Betfair )
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The weather has destroyed the Turf Racing today but I like Wolves tonight. GARSTANG (7.20pm) is not an account bet its just a normal selection but at 16/1 well worth a bet. The Racing Post suggest it hasnt been shaping like it was about to win but I disagree and tipped it recently when a non runner and I have seen three races its run recently that suggests to me its about to win somewhere and I think this is a big chance and only the competetiveness of the race stops me making him a Full bet.

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T O D A Y ‘ S R A C I N G

WOLVERHAMPTON 7:20

GET A BONUS AT WILLIAMHILL HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-65) 5f216y

5/1 Ryedane, Shakespeare´s Son, 6/1 All You Need, Littledodayno, 8/1 Cool Sands, 10/1 Back In The Red, Morse, 14/1 Danzig Fox, Grimes Faith, 16/1 Garstang, Hamaasy, Royal Challenge, 33/1 Sion Hill.

SELECTION – GARSTANG

This is a 0-61 handicap just short of 6f. Wolverhampton have had 31 of these races in September. I think you need an experienced horse with at least 13 runs as 29 of
the 31 winners had that (others 2-72) and I also think you need many runs this year. Horses that didnt have at least 7 runs that year had a 2-109 record. A Good recent run is important as well. You dont really want a horse thats come here off the back of a poor run. I wanted to oppose SHAKESPEARS SON who is one of only 2 that have to come from 5f. He looks underraced and I dont want a horse coming from a 3yo handicap with Topweight. I thought he had a weak profile. I am also going to oppose HAMAASY who looks underraced and has the longest absence to overcome
when the joint oldest horse. SION HILL didnt run well enough last time and neither did GRIMES FAITH. The other 5f horse BACK IN THE RED looks underraced this year and I dont want him. DANZIG FOX looks to have a weak profile as the least experienced runner. I dont want MORSE from the draw. COOL SANDS is not for me drawn in stall 1 having had just 1 runs since July. There will be a lot fitter
horses that him today. ROYAL CHALLENGE wouuldnt be my first choice. I dont want LITTLEDODAYNO whose the only filly in the race. In the 31 races here at Wolverhampton in September fillies that had 9st 6lbs or more had a bad 0-42 record . LITTLEDODAYNO won last time in a key piece of form as she beat RYEDANE half a length and ALL YOU NEED a couple of lengths over Course and Distance last week. Both RYEDANE and ALL YOU NEED are better off at the weights today. Watching the tape I think ALL YOU NEED may just be the weaker of the trio and I think RYEDANE may come out best today. However its G A R S T A N G that is my main interest in this race.

I tipped GARSTANG at Chester a couple of weeks ago when he was a Non runner. I felt at the time that his stable were in form – he was well handicapped. His sand mark has dropped 15lbs this year. GARSTANG had been catching my eye on tape recently having been running himself fit. He really caught my eye at Pontefract two runs ago in a
0-75 handicap where he badly missed the break and was repeatedly stopped in running and finished so well he was capable of far more. I fancied him at Chester but he did not run as rain came down. I swerved him last time out at Lingfield as it was a 0-80 handicap and just out of his depth but his run wasnt without promise. Two furlongs out he was in last place as he had been all race but he came late and made some ground up without being knocked about and I thought that was another encouraging run in a far better race than this contest. This is now a 0-67 contest and a big drop in class for a horse thats won over course
and distance. Not keen on the stable but he is drawn well and at his price GARSTANG should be given the chance to show he’s coming into form. Look at it this way. This is a
Class 6 race. GARSTANGS last 33 races have been in Higher Class. His record in Class 6 when not having a long absence is 8 W W W 2 W 4 2 and some of those defeats are excusable. He has to be worth a bet.

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Posted under horse racing tips