NEWMARKET 1.50

victor chandler Challenge Stakes (Group 2)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 7f

2/1 Delegator, 5/1 Red Jazz, 10/1 Mabait, 10/1 Main Aim
12/1 Cat Junior, 12/1 Dream Eater, 16/1 High Standing
20/1 Duff, 20/1 Himalya, Shakespearean, 25/1 Harrison George 25/1 Sir Gerry, 33/1 Golden Stream, 50/1 Blue Angel.

* The Challenge Stakes is a Group race over 7f
* There are 20 renewals since 1990
* 18 of the 20 winners had between 9 and 14 career runs
* Horses with 13 or more starts struggled
* The only ones that won had Grade 1 form before
* Male 3 year olds are just 1-37 with 13 or more runs
* No 3 year old has won this down in distance

SHORTLIST

* DELEGATOR has 1 run this season
* A Few past winners had 2 runs but none had 1
* Thats the biggest problem he faces
* BLUE ANGEL has a surprisingly good profile
* She is very similar to the 2007 winner
* She is  close to 2 other winners
* In a race of shocks she could be interesting
* 3 Year Old fillies with 7-12 career starts
* Finishing 1-2-3-4 last time
* At least 6 runs this season
* These horses had a 4-6 record in this race
* The last 2 that won (2007 and 2000) were 20/1
* BLUE ANGEL is a possibly shock  winner.

It looks a ridiculous shout to go with BLUE ANGLE who
is 50/1 and more on Betfair and multiple bookmakers but the last 10 renewals have
seen horses win a 20/1 20/1 20/1 20/1 and 16/1 and they
were impossible to find as well so she may be able to nick
a place. I’m not keen on any of the alternatives so with a
risk of making myself look stupid I will go with her.

Definately more chance of losing with this bet than winning with it but the name of the game is long term edge and at 50/1 I sniff some value.
SELECTION

BLUE ANGEL 50/1 + Each  Way bet365 -  betfred – Ladbrokes – s james

Posted under horse racing tips

Thanks for the positive feedback on last weekends 18/1 winner of the St Wilfred.  Nice to see a few of you re investing winnings in a full membership.

Another longish shot today for you.

CHESTER 2.20

Totepool Handicap (Div I) (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85)  6f18y

9/2 Tyfos, 11/2 Bahamian Lad, 11/2 Lucky Dan, 8/1 Luscivious 8/1 Roker Park, 8/1 Victorian Bounty, 12/1 Falasteen 12/1 Ursula, 14/1 Indian Trail, 14/1 Kingswinford
16/1 Conry, 20/1 Frognal, 20/1 Great Charm, 20/1 Methaaly.

This is a 6f Handicap for 0-85 rated horses. You want to avoid the high draws as you will know. The higher you go the safer it will be.  I would avoid horses drawn 11 and higher. METHAALY GREAT CHARM – INDIAN TRAIL and FALASTEEN have to go. I don’t like CONRY with 1 run this season. If you look at all exposed 4 year olds that come from 5f races the only winners in these races ran within 2 weeks. Those that did not were 0-33 and thats why I’d oppose LUCKY DAN. Exposed 4 year olds coming from 5f races struggled anyway and the only ones not only had a
recent race they all finished 1st or 2nd last time. Those beaten a length or more were 1-92 telling me FROGNAL is beatable and I am against him. LUSCIVIOUS won a 5f race last time. I was not convinced with him. Certainly no horse won again at 6f without a run within 2 weeks and I felt he lacked the right profile. If you look at Exposed Males that come from 6f handicaps and have a break of over a Month they struggled. Those with under 9 races
that season were 1-106. VICTORIAN BOUNTY fails that and
none were as lightly raced as he is this year. BAHAMIAN LAD won a 6f handicap last time. There were 6 exposed 5 year olds that did that but the ones that failed to run within 2 weeks were  0-13 and the evidence is that he’d be better with a recent run.

TYFOS – Scrapes on shortlist – worried about handicap mark.
ROKER PARK – Well treated but unsafe – Needs more runs

SELECTION – URSULA 14/1

Nb best price at free blog posting time now 12/1 at various bookmakers inc Coral VC s james bet365

She may be a Filly with an absence but she is unexposed and I’ve found 2 similar winners like her. She could be one of those that  either flops or wins. Statistically she is fine. I’d have liked a little better draw but its not impossible to win from there and she will love the ground and has hit form now and could impove again. I would consider a small bet at a big price and have a saver as well perhaps on Roker Park from a better draw.

Posted under horse racing tips

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