I don’t think I should have an account bet. Tempted
a lot by the thought of turning an unimpressive week
into a winning one but bottom line is there is not much
point wasting good money before Cheltenham. It has
been a really strong start to the year. I am planning a
Top class Cheltenham where I will be Spot on. Just
having some small personal bets today for some interest.

For the free blog I will list just one of them.

If interested in the other races covered join the full service
under the Cheltenham Deal

Here is the cheap price link:

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
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NEWBURY 3.10

Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m4f

3/1 Can´t Buy Time, 7/2 Pasco, 6/1 Battlecry, 8/1 Au Courant, 8/1 Panjo Bere,
9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Our Vic10/1 Regal Heights, 33/1 Stan.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m4f
* There are 5 renewals of this race
* There has only been 14 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 14 races in Listed or Graded class

The problem here is 14 races like this is not really enough
to get a complete statistical fixture. What this means from
a practicle point of view in this race is whether we can be confident enough to oppose horses with One or Two runs this season. They score badly but over half the runners in this race have just 1-2 runs this season so just how safe it will be to oppose them is open to doubt.
In this particular race all 5 winners had at least 3 runs this season and most had more. In the 14 similar handicaps horses with 1-2 runs that season only had a 1-41 record. If you take horses that  had never run in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 race before you find that with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a 0-41 record.

None also had an absence of or more than a month (0-35). That is a problem for CAN´T BUY TIME with just 2 runs in this season and a 9 week break. BIG FELLA THANKS also has no form in Grade 1-2 races and comes out questionably as a horse with just 2 runs this season.
Both AU COURANT and STAN come out badly with an absence and just 2 runs this season. I cant have OUR VIC who drops from 3m 4f just 14 days ago and these statistics show him vulnerable.

* There has been 419 handicap chases between 19f – 22f
* Thats 419 races at any time of year in Class 2 or better
* Horses from 3m 3f or more last time won just 10 races
* None were aged 11 or more and OUR VIC is 12
* Those running between Febuary and April were 0-71
* Those running within 2 weeks were 0-37

I just see OUR VIC having too much to do. I’ve found a
winner like REGAL HEIGHTS aged  9 and exposed with
2 runs this year as that winner like him had Grade 1 form
so I see him in a better light but he still looks underraced this year.
If you look at horses in the 14 similar races at this time of year with an
absence of 7 weeks or more there is a very troublesome 1-69 record.
We know that STAN, AU COURANT and CAN´T BUY TIME  have
that against them but so to does PASCO with a 79 day absence.
I see PANJO BERE as having a good profile and although he’s
not well handicapped he is crucially well raced this year
and looks shortlistable. I also like BATTLECRY a lot. It
has to be considered that Trevor Hemmings has him in
two Cheltenham handicaps and whether that raises the
doubt that this is only a prep race or not I wouldnt know
but He is a talented horse. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance
Chase a couple of years ago and he comes here as Fitter
in each run he has had this year and probably well treated
as well. Against many horses with absences and many in
the race potentially underraced this year BATTLECRY is
a really generous price for a horse with few obvious flaws.
He is very one paced and could be beaten by something
who can quicken better but he looks rock solid to me and
I will be surprised if he doesnt place.

SELECTION

BATTLECRY Each Way 7/1

* I think BATTLECRY is a place banker
* I think his most likely position is 2nd
* If I was having a saver it would be on Pasco

** Blog comment: Price dropped a touch now
13/2 available at William Hill  VC betfred

Posted under horse racing tips

 COUNTRYSIDE DAY MAIDEN HURDLE (CLASS 5) (4yo+) 2m110y

13/8 Carole´s Legacy, 5/2 Shoreacres, 5/1 Quidonc, Somersby, 13/2 Puerto Azul, 8/1 Uffa Fox, 33/1 Northern Lad, 100/1 CoolContender, Graham´s Girl, Lady Samantha, Sideon Arthur, Son Of Karinga.

SELECTION – SHOREACRES
 

This is a 2 mile maiden hurdle. Pretty Standard for this time of year and we have 6 possible winners and 6 no hopers so it looks quite sortable. I wanted to oppose CAROLE’S LEGACY in this.

She is a 4 year old filly. She is having her seasonal debut. She has ran just twice before and she comes from Bumpers and thats not an ideal mix as the following trends suggest

* Since 1992 there has been over 8000 Maiden And Novice Hurdles
* Thats any time of year – any distance – any course
* I looked for 4 year old fillies that came from Bumper races
* The record was just 7 winners from 396 runners
* When they had under 3 runs like CAROLE’S LEGACY
* That record became just 2-244 a strike rate of 0.82%
* Seasonal debutants that tried it like her were 0-81
* The record in Maiden hurdles like this were 0-48

I concede that CAROLE’S LEGACY – Unbeaten- Powerfully trained -with Listed Bumper form has to have a better chance than these trends suggest she has – but the bottom line for me is this. In the last 16 years you can not find a 4 year old filly that won any maiden or novice hurdle
with her profile and thats any distance any class and any time of year. Because of that and because she is short enough around 7/4 I am going to take her on with something that has a far better profile.

There has been 126 Maiden Hurdles between September and December over 2 mile trips. Only 1 of these races went to a 4 year old thats had 1 career start in a Bumper as SOMERSBY. The record was 1-26 and although he cant be a negative on that statistic not many win with the
profile he has and just 1 at this time of year and he wouldnt be my pick in the race. Neither would be PUERTO AZUL another 4 year old that has 3 runs in Bumpers and has yet to win one. QUIDONIC is really impossible to rate as a 4 year old with French Form. Strong stable and you couldnt rule him out but he doesnt smell strongly fancied and you
would have thought he would have been shorter in the betting if he came here with maximum confidence. I feel the same about UFFA FOX as well as whilst he has won a Graded Bumper he has flopped since and remains with a small yard and doesnt smell too fancied either. There is only one choice for me and that is S H O R E A C R E S

* SHOREACRES comes from the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham
* September to December has seen 2813 Novice and Maiden Hurdles
* Thats at any trip and any course in these 4 months
* I looked at horses that came from Grade 1 Bumpers
* When they had 2 or more runs and aged 5 or more they were 36-85
* Thats a 42% strike rate and 58 of the 85 winners won or placed
* The record in Maiden Hurdles was 4 wins from 7 runners

You cant say he is Bomb Proof but a horse coming from the Champion Bumper like SHOREACRES has a very strong profile and considering we know that no horse has won a remotely similar race anywhere with the profile of the favourite in the race I have to go with SHOREACRES.

Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips