Another good day yesterday as our main bet POLLYS MARK won for full Members  at 5/2.
It looked like he had been caught on the line by a fast finisher but we got the verdict
and I’ll happily take that as we have had big priced horses beaten this year at 1.01 and similar prices in running.
Whilst nobody believes these things even out over a season its nice to get one that did look like getting away from us.
Either a great ride or one nice piece of luck but either way another valuable winner.
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On to Today

ASCOT 3.40

Totesport.com Challenge Cup
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 7f

13/2 Redford, 10/1 Axiom, Kakatosi, 10/1 Sarasota Sunshine
12/1 Side Glance, 16/1 Rulesn´regulations, 16/1 St Moritz
20/1 Citrus Star, 20/1 Noble Citizen, 20/1 Suruor, 25/1 Acrostic 25/1 Advanced, 25/1 Colepeper,
Gramercy, 25/1 Imperial Guest, 25/1 Navajo Chief, Swift Gift, 25/1 Treadwell, 25/1 Wannabe King
33/1 Castles In The Air, Golden Desert, 33/1 Light From Mars 33/1 Mia´s Boy, 40/1 Gallagher,
Jimmy Styles 40/1 Kyllachy Star 40/1 Lowdown, 50/1 Bonnie Charlie, 50/1 Marajaa.

* This is a 7f handicap for horses rated 0-106
* Ascot has had 18 renewals but 2 were run at other tracks
* There has been 38 Similar races at other tracks
* Horses from 6f races underperformed
* Those with 13 + career starts were 1-78
* Horses aged 4 or 5 from 6f races were 0-49
* No horse aged 7 or more came from 6f
* Horses beaten 4 + lengths over 6f last time were 0-47
* Those from 6f absent a Month won nothing
* The following horses from 6f races are all rejected
* GOLDEN DESERT -CASTLES IN THE AIR – JIMMY STYLES
* ADVANCED – GRAMERCY – LOWDOWN – BONNIE CHARLIE
* REDFORD is exposed and won a 6f handicap last time
* No past winner of this race was like him
* There was 1 similar winner in the 38 other races
* That horse didnt have a penalty and he is opposable
* In 38 races horses aged 7 or more were just 1-50
* MARAJAA looks too old
* Horses absent 7 + weeks were 2-81 in the 38 races
* Those with 13 or more career starts were 0-36
* Those aged 5 or more with that absence were 0-23
* MIA´S BOY – NOBLE CITIZEN fail that
* Horses from 3yo handicaps were 2-45
* Those that came from 7f or shorter were 0-29
* Those absent more than a Month were 0-24
* Those that won 3yo handicaps last time were 0-10
* NAVAJO CHIEF – KAKATOSI are opposed on those angles
* You dont want a 3 year old that ran in Group class before
* In 38 similar races these horses are 0-71
* TREADWELL fails that
* Horses from 8f races won 9 of the 38 races
* Those absent more than a Month were 0-43
* ST MORITZ fails that
* ACROSTIC fails that
* SIDE GLANCE fails that
* Horses from 8f races won 9 of the 38 races
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were 3-94
* None of these were aged 5 or more like ACROSTIC
* In 38 similar races Fillies have a 1-55 record
* None were aged 4 + (0-26) or had 7 + runs (0-44)
* SARASOTA SUNSHINE fails that
* I looked at 4 year olds with 13 + career starts
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that year were 1-24
* WANNABE KING fails that and isnt like that 1 winner
* That winner had more backclass than he does
* The same is said for SURUOR
* He is a similar type and unlike any winners
* KYLLACHY STAR is an exposed 4 year old
* He comes from a 7f handicap within 2 weeks
* There were winners like that but all came from better races
* Males aged 4 absent over a Month were 1-40
* RULESN´REGULATIONS fails that and looks unsafe
* AXIOM won a 7f handicap last time
* Horses doing that had a 2-32 record
* None were absent more than 2 weeks (0-18)
* There was 1 exposed horse doing like him
* He had a more recent run less weight and more runs that year
* AXIOM has problems I dont think he will overcome
* Horses aged 3 with 5 + career starts were 7-140
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5-6 runs that year were just 1-83
* Those that didnt run within 7 days were 0-82
* CITRUS STAR fails that and is opposed
* SWIFT GIFT is a 5 year old absent 42 days
* No winners like that won with his absence
* SWIFT GIFT is vulnerable with that absence

SHORTLIST

GALLAGHER  40/1
IMPERIAL GUEST 25/1
COLEPEPER 33/1
LIGHT FROM MARS 40/1

* COLEPEPER is 3 and comes from 8f
* 3 year olds doing that with 9 + runs were 2-24
* Those beaten under 6 lengths last time were 2-12
* I would not rule him out at a big price
* LIGHT FROM MARS is an exposed 5yo
* He comes from a 7f handicap and has no Group form
* Horses like that running within 4 weeks were 4-22
* Those with 8 + runs this year beaten under 10 lengths last time
* This improved his record to 4-14
* The 1992 and 2001 winners of this race had that profile
* IMPERIAL GUEST  is an exposed 4 year old
* He comes from a 7f handicap within 2 weeks
* Horses with that profile had a 2-5 record in 38 races
* The 2002-2003 winners had the same profile
* GALLAGHER is 4 and has 13 + career starts
* He comes from a 7f handicap in the last fortnight
* Horses with that profile with 7 + runs this season are 4-23
* Those beaten less than 6 lengths last time are 4-17
* The 2002-2003 winners had the same profile
* The 2002 winner even came from the same Handicap as him

SELECTION

GALLAGHER  40/1
IMPERIAL GUEST 25/1
COLEPEPER 33/1
LIGHT FROM MARS 40/1

My shortlist has thrown up 4 rank outsiders.
Don’t know if thats a ridiculous fluke or what’s happened there !!
If there is one selection then GALLAGHER  at 40/1 interests me as the best option
but at these prices I’d be an idiot not to have some small bets on all 4.
I have decided on a pretty low stake that I’m prepared to lose in a race as vile
as this and I’ve had small bets on all 4 of these runners on Betfair at prices that
are far bigger than they should be.
I doubt I will get the winner but the angles steer me this way and at these prices its not too
hard to trust them and have 4 small value bets at massive prices.

Betfair is probably your best bet if betting long odds horses on the nose.

The link below gives best bookie odds however.

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-09-25/ascot/15-40/betting/

best wishes
Guy

Posted under horse racing tips

G O O D W O O D

It is not so Glorious today as the meeting shows its teeth and the full force of its bite today with a Savaging card.
I have no choice but to try and do the Stewards Cup today as that’s high on everybodys list of races to
Bet in but I wont be spending a great deal of time of this card today as its pretty ferocious.

The 2.30pm is Listed race for 3 year olds over a Mile and it’s got a long history.
I thought it was intersting horses coming from 3yo handicaps were 0-24.
FREEFORADAY looks one to avoid doing that. TREADWELL comes
from an all aged  handicaps and the 2 winners doing that were less exposed
and had a more recent run. LONG LASHES is a debutant and there were
2 debutants but they were Males with 2 runs and she is a female with 4 runs.
FIELD OF DREAMS has a chance and I’d see both these as a little unsafe
but possible winners. I respect CRITICAL MOMENTS who should run well.
Unclear as yet whether yesterdays handicap winner SEA LORD will run again
and if he does he has to be respected with yesterdays run sure to either improve his chance of kill it.
The one that interested  me most was DESERT MYTH as many winners dropped down
from 10f Conditions races and they were all very lightly raced  and a stable
with a good record in this I like DESERT MYTH

GOODWOOD 3.40

Stewards´ Cup (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

8/1 Genki, 9/1 Enact, 9/1 Palace Moon, 10/1 Jonny Mudball
12/1 Rileyskeepingfaith, Noverre To Go, 14/1 Striking Spirit 16/1 Johannes,
16/1 Kaldoun Kingdom, 16/1 Parisian Pyramid 16/1 Secret Asset,
20/1 Castles In The Air, 25/1 Hitchens,  25/1 Jimmy Styles, 25/1 Knot In Wood,
33/1 Evens And Odds 33/1 Ingleby Lady, 33/1 Prohibit, 33/1 Run For The Hills 33/1
Sir Gerry, 40/1 Iver Bridge Lad, 40/1 Prime Exhibit 40/1 Singeur, 50/1 Advanced,
Ancien Regime, 50/1 Edge Closer 50/1 Sonny Red, 66/1 Everymanforhimself.

* The Stewards Cup in a Class 2 handicap over 6f
* There has been 19 renewals since 1991
* Exposed horses won 5 of the 19 renewals
* Those with under 6 runs that year were 1-117
* Those aged 4 were 1-59 and he had Group 3 class form
* Those exposed with form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 were 0-71
* Those exposed absent over a month were 0-59
* Those exposed from a 5f race were just 1-125
* Those exposed with 9st 5lbs or more were 0-46
* Horses from 5f struggle but only 1 runner does that today
* Horses aged 6 or more have a  2-182 record in this race
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were 0-92
* Those with under 8 runs that season were 0-125
* Those that came from 6f or shorter were 0-162
* Horses aged 3 have a poor 1-68 record in this race
* Horses aged 3 with 9 + career runs were 0-48
* Horses that come from conditions races struggle
* They have a 1-100 record in this race
* Horses that come from Listed or Group class are 0-67
* Horses that lost by 6 or more lengths last time were 2-165
* None of these were absent over a Month or came from 7f
* None of these had 1-2-3-4-5 runs this season (0-84)
* Fillies have a 1-61 record in this race
* That was a 4yo with under 7 runs and 3 runs that year

POSSIBLES

NOVERRE TO GO – Has an acceptable profile
JONNY MUDBALL – Just enough to shortlist
PALACE MOON – Reasonable chance

SELECTION

STRIKING SPIRIT

The 3 Possibles above have decent chances but none of them
are quite right statistically and have minor flaws. Whilst I can say the same
about STRIKING SPIRIT he is a whisker away from being perfect and
I think he has as good a chance to win this as any. He was only beaten
6 lengths in last years race on ground too soft when he went off too fast
and I think he was badly drawn last year.
This year he has proved himself to be  a Top notch sprint handicapper.
He’d be my choice at 16/1.

16/1 paying out on 5 places available at bet365 and s james

Posted under Major Horse Races