For those of you who prefer to do your own thing selection wise

here are some researched stats for Cheltenham Day 4 races.

 

 

CHELTENHAM 1.30

JCB Triumph Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo) 2m1f

* The Triumph Hurdle is for 4 year olds over 17f
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* English Horses have won the last 8 renewals
* I would avoid horses with 1 career start
* Horses that had 7 + previous races had a 0-31 record.
* 2 of the last winners had just 2 previous races
* Thats a change as 17 of the previous 18 had more
* Flat Bred runners seem to have the advantage.
* 15 of the last 16 winners were Flat Bred
* Look for a Flat Bred horse that stayed 12f on the flat
* Horses that ran within 2 weeks were 0-49
* The last 19 winners all ran after January 17th that year
* The Adonis Hurdle winner has won this 5 times
* Fillies won 3 renewals in 1993, 1994 and 2000
* All 3 won last time within the past month
* Horses that won their last race won 12 of the last 13
* You must have a horse 1st or 2nd last time
* Those that were not had a 0-158 record
* Horses that ran over 17f or more last time were 1-85
* Only Katchit won from 17f and he won a Champion Hurdle
* All 28 horses that came from Handicaps Lost
* Horses coming from Class 5 or lower struggled
* Those that had 3 or more runs doing that were 0-49
* All 36 horses that came from a Class 2 Hurdle lost
* All 85 maidens lost
* 14 of the last 16 winners had won twice that season
* Colts dont have a great record compared to Geldings
* Horses beaten 8 + lengths last time were 0-133

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CHELTENHAM 2.05

Vincent O?Brien County Handicap Hurdle
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m1f

* The County Hurdle is a Handicap over 17f
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* Seasonal debutants have not won this race
* Horses with 1 race that season were 0-43
* You want a horse with at least 3 runs that season
* Over 100 horses had under 3 runs and none won
* All 16 winners had at least that and most had 4 +
* The last 18 winners had these runs since September
* 3-4 6 4 7 7 3 5 5 5 4 6 5 7 7 5 5 3 4
* You want a horse with 3-7 runs this season
* The last 18 winners had this number of hurdle runs
* 14 4 10 7 8 16 7 17 21 8 5 6 26 12 21 25 10 10 17
* You want a Horse that ran within the last 56 days.
* Only Sir Talbot (1999) won with a longer absence
* The last 17 winners were absence this many days
* 55 27 14 34 13 36 32 33 33 13 98 17 44 3 28 16 29 21 52
* All 56 horses that came from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Lost
* Last time out finishing position doesnt matter much
* Horses aged 5 or 6 have the best record
* 5 and 6 year olds won 39 of the last 49 renewals
* Horses aged 5 have won 4 of the last 6 renewals
* No horse aged 10 or older have won
* English horses aged 7 or more were 3-159
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that season were 0-95
* I wouldnt bet a horse aged 7 or more with under 5 runs
* 16 of the last 18 winners ran in at least 2 handicaps before
* Both high and low weighted winners have won
* I’d oppose the very high weighted horses
* Horses with 11st 10lbs or more are 0-18

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CHELTENHAM 2.40

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
(Registered As The Spa Novices Hurdle Race)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 3 Miles
* There are just 6 renewals of this race
* The 5 winners were aged 7-6-7-6-7-5
* Horses aged 8 or more are 0-13
* The 6 winners were 4 2 2 1 1 2 on their previous starts
* The 6 winners had 15-6-8-8-5-4 hurdle and bumper runs
* They had the following number of hurdle starts
* 13 – 4 – 3 – 4 – 3 – 4
* I would ideally want 3 or 4 hurdle runs but at least 3
* Dont be put off from horses with absences
* The 6 winners had been absent this many days
* 33 47 61 48 97 27
* All 6 winners came from a Grade 2 Hurdle last time
* 2 of the 6 winners won a Cheltenham Grade 2 last time
* 5 of the 6 winners had ran at the distance before
* 5 of the 6 winners had ran at the track before
* The 6 winners had 9-4-3-4-3-5 runs that season

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CHELTENHAM 3.20

Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* 14 of the last 15 winners had 6-14 previous Chase starts
* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009
* The last 14 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled
* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-82 record
* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse
* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record.
* They’ve won 16 of the last 17 Cheltenham Gold Cups.
* Horses aged 10 do not have a great record
* Horses aged 10 have a 1-85 record since 1992
* Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
* All 34 that ran in the last 17 years lost.
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* I wouldnt want a horse with fewer runs that season
* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine
* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.
* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form.
* 11 of the last 13 winners placed at a previous Festival.
* Allmost all past winners placed or fell last time out
* The only exception was last years winner 5th in a Grade 1
* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.
* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race
* Horses from a Grade 1 – Grade 2 chase last time are best
* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best
* Every winner since 1992 had managed that
* A Novice hasnt won the Gold Cup since 1974

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CHELTENHAM 4.00

Christies Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup
(CLASS 2) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

* The Foxhunters is a Hunter Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* Foxhunters Chase and England lead 15-2 since 1992
* Horses aged 11 or more were 2-130 both winners a shock
* Its a race more often than not gone to younger horses.
* You can’t rule out any age as a 13yo won in 2004
* 6 recent winners ran within the last 15 days
* Two of these won at Newbury and 4 at Warwick.
* Anything that wins very recently is significant
* Seasonal debutants won several renewals
* I would either want a long absence or very short one
* Horses with Headgear won 1 race but score badly
* We haven’t yet had a female winner of this race (0-14)
* The last 14 winners had the following finishing positions
* W W W L UR W 2 W 3 W W W W W
* The majority have won their latest starts
* Or they would have probably won when falling
* 19 of the last 23 winners won on their previous start
* Horses that came from a Handicap Chase are 1-37
* 19 of the last 21 were brought up via Hunters or Points
* All 23 horses from a Novice or Maiden Hunter Chase Lost
* 38 horses lined up having previously ran in a Grade 1 race.
* None of the 38 won this race
* No past winner came from 2m 4f or shorter

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CHELTENHAM 4.00

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle
(CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-140) 2m4f110y

* No strong Statistics with just 2 past renewals
* Both winners were 6 year olds
* Both had 11st 2lbs and more
* Both last ran in Febuary
* Both had 9-11 runs over Bumpers-Hurdles-Fences
* Both had ran over fences at least once before
* Both had ran 7-8 times over hurdles before
* Neither winner came up in distance
* Both had placed at Cheltenham before
* Both winners had 4 runs that season
* Neither had 3 or more career wins before

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CHELTENHAM 5.15

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup
(Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m110y

* The Grand Annual is a 2m Handicap Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* Recent winners had the follwing Chase runs
* 7 6 13 11 5 7 10 4 11 3 6 5 39 26
* Recent winners had the follwing Hurdle runs
* 30 7 12 3 12 11 6 1 11 7 25 2 8 14
* Recent winners had the follwing Chase-Hurdle runs
* 37 13 25 14 17 18 16 5 22 10 30 7 47 40
* Lightly raced Chasers were best since 1997
* The last 11 winners had these Handicap Chase runs
* 1 0 4 7 1 0 3 0 4 0 0 5
* 5 of the last 11 winners had never ran in Handicap Chase
* Another one had only ran in 1 Handicap Chase.
* The last 11 winners had these Novice Chase runs
* 6 6 8 4 4 6 7 4 7 3 6 7 Novice Chase runs
* The last 12 winners had no more than 12 runs in Chases.
* Strongly consider horses with 0-5 Handicap Chase runs
* Strongly consider horses with 3-8 Novice Chases runs
* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less.
* The last High Weighted winner was in 1998
* Horses with 11st 3lbs or more were 2-55
* One was exceptional winning many Grade 1 races
* The last 12 winners were aged 7 6 10 7 8 9 9 5 9 7 8 6
* Horses aged 10 or more won 3 renewals since 1991
* None of these came from 2m chases (0-36)
* Only 1 winner aged 10 or more was exposed (1-39)
* They all had form in Graded races
* Only 1 of the last 16 winners had just 1 run that season
* Between 3 and 5 runs that season is best
* Last years winner had 7 runs that year but thats unusual
* English horses absent 7 weeks or more were 0-64
* All winners bar Fota Island in 2005 ran within 7 weeks
* All 35 horses that dropped from 2m 5f trips or longer lost
* 16 of the last 17 winners had ran in Graded Class before
* The one that didnt spent most time Racing in France
* Predictably all 37 apprentice riders lost in this race
* Horses winning 8 or more races have a 0-56 record
* Unless Falling you want a 1-2-3-4 position last time out
* 35 of the last 40 winners placed in their previous chase
* A horse that placed or fell on their penultimate run helps
* Past winners had the following places in their last Chase
* 5-2-3-3-5-2-F-W-W-W-3-W-4-2

Posted under Major Horse Races

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1.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2.05 Arkle Challenge Trophy
2.40 Festival Handicap Steeple Chase
3.20 Champion Hurdle

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HAYDOCK 3.20

Totesport.com Grand National Trial
(Handicap Chase) Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m4f

11/2 West End Rocker, 13/2 Carruthers, 7/1 Mobaasher
8/1 King Fontaine, 8/1 Silver By Nature, 9/1 Le Beau Bai
9/1 Nicto De Beauchene, 10/1 Major Malarkey, 10/1 Sarde
20/1 Ballyfitz, 25/1 Etxalar, 25/1 Madison Du Berlais
33/1 Jaunty Journey, 40/1 Sound Accord.

* This is a 3m 4f Handicap Chase.
* Haydock’s has had 14 renewals of this race

This is a Grand National trial and I think we should split the runners
into two categories. First of all the in form horses in the race that ran
very well last time out and who are likely to be here to do their best.
Secondly the horses well beaten last time that might be using the race
to put the finishing touches on their Grand National chance.
Thats certainly looks like it has happened in the past as only In Form horses win this race.

* Last time out winners won 6 past renewals
* Last time out seconds won 4 past renewals
* Last time out 1st 2nd or 3rd won 12 of the 14 renewals
* Only 2 of the past winners were not placed last time
* One of these was 5th last time but had a long absence
* Another Fell at the 1st on their last run but won before it

I think you need to be against the horses that didnt run
very well last time. SILVER BY NATURE looks one to
oppose beaten too far last time and its interesting only 2
of the 14 winners carried 11st 4lbs or more. I would also
be against MADISON DU BERLAIS and CARRUTHERS
both high weights and not doing enough last time. Harder
to rule out CARRUTHERS. He isnt too unlike the winner
in 2008 (Miko De Beauchene) who had won the Chepstow
Welsh National and won this after a break aged 8 absent a
fair while. CARRUTHERS though has a longer break and
was well beaten last time and is only a small horse who is
best in a very small field and has never been placed in any
prior handicap. SOUND ACCORD – JAUNTY JOURNEY
and ETXALAR are all horses that failed to do enough last
time out. I dont see BALLYFITZ as straight enough to be
winning and you’d expect him to be laid out for Aintree if
he gets in that race. The only winners from a Novice race
ran within 2 weeks and MAJOR MALARKEY has got 66
days absence and No past winners came from any Novice
Handicap to win. I’ve looked at every Handicap Chase in
March and Febuary in Class 2 and Higher and thats all 329
races at any distance in those grades. If you look at 7 year
olds that have No Graded form before and also have 13 or
more career starts you do not find many winners and none
were like SARDE. None had as long an absence or won at
this distance and none managed to win having only 2 runs
that season and I dont see SARDE having enough to win
this. There is an interesting angle about backclass because
12 of the 14 winners of this race had past form in either
a Listed or Graded race before. KING FONTAINE doesn’t
have that. He seems to have plenty of weight for a horse
without it. The only winners of this race without Listed or
Graded form had much less weight than he does and having
been raised 15lbs for his last win he has quite a bit to prove
and his trainer has said the 15lbs rise was harsh.

SHORTLIST

WEST END ROCKER
MOBAASHER
NICTO DE BEAUCHENE
LE BEAU BAI

The issue with WEST END ROCKER s whether he has
recovered from a hard race at Warwick. Similar winners
of that race finished 4 6 11 in this race. Statistically he  is
respectable and earns a shortlist place comfortably.
I like MOBAASHER as he is a promising chaser who
has a progressive profile and looks well handicapped on his
hurdles form. Against him is he hasnt raced over fences this
season yet and I hope it doesnt catch him out.
It’s interesting NICTO DE BEAUCHENE’s full brother has
won this race before much as he was classier. He lacks a
run in Graded Class but both winners that lacked that did
look similar with a months break and a good last run and
I see NICTO DE BEAUCHENE as a serious runner. The
other option is mud loving LE BEAU BAI who finished
3rd in this race last year and should be thereabouts again.
The overnight rain swings me towards LE BEAU BAI.

SELECTION

LE BEAU BAI 9/1 in various spots
Ladbrokes , Sky , bet365, William Hill etc

Each Way

Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday December 20th

No Account Bet

No Selections

Decided to resist a bet today on either account. If I had one it would be simply be because it was a Saturday and not for the right reasons. Its one of those Saturday’s where the racing is high class and fascinating to watch with some top quality horses running but its so competetive that strong bets dont look obvious. I have nothing on the sand today so the message revolves around 8 races I like. I have covered most of the big races today and as a message goes its not a bad one aside from one that doesnt throw up a serious bet on the day. Feel a little bit embarrased and dissapointed not to find something strong today but I dont want to abandon a principle in throwing any horse at you just because its a saturday and pretending I like it more than I do. I think its a day for small stakes through the message from start to finish or a day to possibly throw a few horses in an each way multiple bet. Stronger days will come soon enough. Leaving this one for interest only bettingIf stuck for inspiration of your own today see below.

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ASCOT 1.40 BoyleSports INTERNATIONAL HURDLE GRADE 2 (4yo+) 2m

11/10 Binocular, 7/2 Crack Away Jack, 11/2 Chomba Womba, 11/2 Katchit, 12/1 Celestial Halo.

SELECTION – KATCHIT Best Current Price 7/1 Coral

KATCHIT can win this race. This is a Quality 2m hurdle with some class hurdlers including Champion Hurdler KATCHITand several pretenders to his crown. This is rescheduled from last weeks abandoned Cheltenham meeting. KATCHIT was my choice last weeks race and is today. I dont like the horse as he has never done me any favours and I would rather he hadnt have won the Champion Hurdle last year. I dont think he will in 2009 either but surely he has to be the bet here. We know that this race is not a good race for 4 year olds. Not saying they cant win but they do score badly. Is it so unreasonable to assume KATCHIT must beat these pretenders. He is the Champion Hurdler. Wouldyou not expect him to beat CELESTIAL HERO a 4 year old whohas never faced an older horse before and is having his first run of the season. Can he not give 4lbs and 2lbs to the 4 year olds in the race. When we get to March we will be discussing the bad record of 5 year olds in the Champion Hurdle. KATCHIT overcame that and both BINOCULAR and CRACK AWAY JACK will face the same problems next March. Surely you would rather bet the horse that overcame a very hard statistic that lasted decades over two 4 year olds and a Mare in Chomba Womba. As for this theory that KATCHIT had a better chance at Cheltenham – That may be true but I think thats got into peoples minds as they have seen him run at Cheltenham so many times before. It is also an assumption that will add 2 points to his price. His record right handed is perfectly fine and he has had two warm up runs to gain full fitness. I think the ground beat him at Kempton forst time out and he was givinglumps of weight away last time. His 3rd run of the year – a smaller field and back at just about level weights we may be saying after the race that KATCHIT was far too big a price for a champion hurdle winner running against 4 year olds and mares at these weights.

Posted under horse racing tips