NEWBURY 3.25 – THEATRE DANCE 6/1 Each Way

THEATRE DANCE is a horse that might unsettle
us especially if he has to be pushed a bit early but I
have negatives in the race. He is from a stable that
are on fire. He’s well handicapped and must now be
fit for the 1st time this season and I like his chance.

NEWBURY 3.25

7/2 Ogee, 5/1 Rey Nacarado, 6/1 Maktu, 8/1 Briery Fox
8/1 Scots Dragoon 8/1 Theatre Dance, 10/1 Double Dizzy
12/1 Noble Crusader , 20/1 Burren Legend.

* No Preview just the profiles I did not like
* The following are all Negatives with Poor Profiles

NOBLE CRUSADER – Wrong coming from 20f or less
MAKTU – Too much weight with a step up in trip
OGEE – Not convinced with 2 runs this year
BRIERY FOX – Too old for 1-2-3 runs this year
BURREN LEGEND – Didnt do enough last time
SCOTS DRAGOON – Exposed from Novice Chase no thanks

SELECTION – THEATRE DANCE each way is my choice

6/1 various spots inc Sky bet365 Tote VC BoyleSports Blue Square

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Full members had an exciting ride yesterday
with an advised each way double on  JESSIES DREAM
and  FIRST LIEUTENANT.

FIRST LIEUTENANT won setting up JESSIES DREAM
to complete an 87/1 double at Starting Price. Agony to watch with
JESSIES DREAM going odds on in running and looking
like winning. Wasn’t to be though with Jessies Dream
beaten by a mere neck.

Still a decent payout on the place side but so so close to a monster payout
for Full members.

You can read Guy’s reasoning and logic for these two  at link below

Close To Big Cigar

As Sods law would dicate the free blog race was a bit of a dog.

Sticking to our long term value principles however we ae not going for a
short priced hot pot on the free blog today.

Another big price horse for you.

CHELTENHAM 4.40

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase)
(Amateur Riders) (CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-140) 3m1f110y

6/1 Junior, 15/2 Galant Nuit, 10/1 Saddlers Storm
12/1 Pomme Tiepy, 14/1 Can´t Buy Time, Galaxy Rock
16/1 Faasel, 16/1 Far More Serious, 16/1 Mostly Bob
16/1 Richard´s Sundance, 18/1 Fredo, 20/1 Alderley Rover
20/1 Billie Magern, 25/1 Cornish Sett, 25/1 Khachaturian
25/1 Minella Theatre, Sheriff Hutton, 28/1 Massini Man
33/1 Burren Legend, 33/1 Dance Island, 33/1 Deal Done
33/1 Den Of Iniquity, 33/1 Teddy´s Reflection
40/1 Palypso De Creek.

* The Kim Muir is a 25f Handicap Chase for Amateurs
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* GALANT NUIT was 3rd in last years race
* I have a problem with him having 1 run this year
* I looked at every handicap chase in March at 3m +
* Those with 13 or more career starts and 1 run that year
* There were a few winners but none were aged 7 like him
* They also scored very badly with absences
* GALANT NUIT has been off 96 days as well
* There are 75 Handicap Chases at the festival at all trips
* Since 1993 that has meant 75 Festival Handicap Chases
* Horses aged 6 and 7 won 16 of these races
* None of these had just 1 or 2 runs that season
* No 6 or 7 year old won with 1-2 runs this season
* In fact there were only 3 that did it with 1-2-3 that year
* All 3 of those horses had Under 11st weight
* GALANT NUIT fails that as well
* I think he would be better on softer ground
* Only 2 horses aged 7 have won this since 1992
* Both had 5 + runs that season and ran within a month
* GALANT NUIT has just 1 run and a long break

* Older horses aged 11 or more are 0-60 in this race
* CORNISH SETT is too old after a heavy defeat last time
* FAR MORE SERIOUS has to go as an 11 year old
* Especially with a high weight and no Graded form
* Exposed horses have to be certain types
* I dont want the ones lightly raced this year
* Horses with 21 + runs in hurdles + chases won 6 races
* Those with 1-2-3 runs that year were 0-47
* FAASEL has to go exposed with 1 run this season
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE also fails that
* CAN´T BUY TIME looks underraced now he’s exposed
* POMME TIEPY fails that and is a Mare
* I looked at this race and the Festival Handicap
* These two races at the 3m Handicaps at the festival
* I looked at exposed horses in both races
* Those with 1-2-3  runs that season were just 3-116
* None were aged 6-7-8-9 (0-45)
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE – POMME TIEPY fail that
* CAN´T BUY TIME fail that
* All 3 had form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 before
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE fails that as well
* CAN´T BUY TIME fails that as well
* Exposed horses with 1-2-3-4 runs this year struggled
* Those absent more than a Month were just 1-58
* None won when carrying more than 11st 1lbs
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE fails all that and has a poor profile
* CAN´T BUY TIME – POMME TIEPY fail that as well
* BURREN LEGEND comes out badly
* Exposed and lacking Grade 1-2 form he’s weak
* MASSINI MAN is out of his depth
* Inexperienced and winning a Hunter Chase last time
* PALYPSO DE CREEK looks underraced this year to me
* Exposed and coming from hurdles he looks vulnerable
* SHERIFF HUTTON is exposed and comes from 2m 5f
* Exposed horses from 3m or shorter last time were 1-79
* All Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* No exposed horse won carrying more than 11st
* SHERIFF HUTTON also has that against him
* SHERIFF HUTTON could have problems on this track
* TEDDY´S REFLECTION is wrong from a Graded Novice
* BILLIE MAGERN is wrong from a Graded Novice
* DANCE ISLAND  is wrong from a Graded Novice
* DEN OF INIQUITY has been absent 75 days
* No horse as old as him won with that absence
* Horses aged 7 only have a 2-56 record
* None like DEAL DONE had under 5 runs that year
* Horses aged 7 from 3m 1f or shorter were 0-45
* BILLIE MAGERN fails that
* DEAL DONE fails that coming from 2m 5f
* ALDERLEY ROVER fails that as well
* GALAXY ROCK fails that as well
* FREDO fails that as well
* Horses coming from Novice Chases are 0-23 in this race
* ALDERLEY ROVER has that to overcome
* I looked at every Handicap Chase at the festival
* I looked for 7 year olds from Novice Chases
* None won without Grade 1 form before
* ALDERLEY ROVER looks wrong from a Novice Chase
* GALAXY ROCK is also 7 from a Novice Chase
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race and looks wrong
* No 7yo with his profile has won at the festival before
* FREDO has the same problems as well
* He is 7 from a Novice race with no Graded form
* I looked at this race and the Festival Handicap
* These two races at the 3m Handicaps at the festival
* No winners of either race came from 2n 3f or shorter
* SADDLERS STORM fails that and looks wrong
* I can ignore the fact Irish Horses are 0-35 in this race
* I cant ignore some of his other problems
* SADDLERS STORM has a high weight to overcome
* No horses did that with under 4 runs this season
* With just 2 runs and up in distance he looks opposable
* MINELLA THEATRE has a poor profile
* I dont like him out of form from 2m 6f
* MOSTLY BOB fell in the Racing Post Chase last time
* The 1994 winner was well beaten in that race and won this
* He has a tough weight of 11st 8lbs
* This race has been won by higher weights
* They were all unexposed with 4 + runs that year like him
* He only has 4 Chase starts and thats a problem
* He fell at the 3rd fence last time so he’s really had just 3
* He has fallen in two of his 4 Chase starts so far
* That leaves him quite short on experience
* I feel its asking too much of him with a big weight

POSSIBLES

* JUNIOR has been very well touted for this race
* He is clearly strongly fancied and well handicapped
* JUNIOR  has 1-2-3 Runs this season
* He has Grade 1 form which is important in that regard
* The absence doesnt worry me
* There are so few decent profiles he does stand out
* I do just prefer the chance of KHACHATURIAN more

SELECTION

* KHACHATURIAN stands out to me
* KHACHATURIAN was 5th in last years race
* He was only beaten 10 lengths last year
* He led and jumped the last in second place
* No shame at all in being caught by Ballybriggs
* Last years run proved this track is fine for him
* Statistically he was dead last year
* He ws only a 7yo the weakest age
* He lacked a recent run last year
* He has that today and is now a better age
* He had to come from 2m 5f last time
* Horses of any age doing that have awful records
* He came from Novice Handicaps last year
* This year he doesn’t and has more experience
* Last year he had a crippling weight for a 7yo
* This year he is 8 and races off a 3lbs lower mark
* He may well have gone off too fast last years
* He is a bigger price this year than he was last year

Bet each way

25/1 available at s james and betfred for 4 places
or if you prefer 22/1 at Blue Square paying 5 places.

****************************************************
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Posted under Major Horse Races

Looking for a lot of luck this festival. You can do all the
preparation you like and I can assure you I have done more
than 99% of other punters out there but without luck its impossible with
so many top class horses. You can read a lot and listen
to many people and their opinions. Most of these do not
help at all. Most trainers and jockeys either have no idea
or want to make sure you don’t have one either and Trust
is hard to find in anything people say. It comes down to
Judgement on the day and a bit of luck in the right place.

I do love the Festival but cut away the hype and it is just
another race meeting for a professional to turn money over on.

As ever the name of the game is to seek value and think long term
NOT just aim at the most likely winner on the day.

One the free blog today I have previewed the 2.40 for you.

I have left it as a short list of six.
It is good that you think for yourself a bit.

I have however nailed my colours to the mast for full members here.

Note the Cheltenham Offer Page if you want to join up.

Analysis for all other Cheltenham Races today is within the member area right now.

********** CHELTENHAM DEAL  ************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
******************************************

CHELTENHAM 2.40

Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

9/2 Bensalem, 11/2 Great Endeavour, 6/1 Sunnyhillboy
9/1 Reve De Sivola, 12/1 Blazing Bailey, 14/1 Wolf Moon
16/1 Carole´s Legacy, 20/1 Adams Island, 20/1 Chief Dan George 20/1
Exmoor Ranger, 20/1 Fair Along, 20/1 Rare Bob
25/1 King Fontaine, 25/1 Razor Royale, 25/1 The Rainbow Hunter 33/1
Carrickmines, 33/1 The Sawyer, 50/1 No Panic 50/1 Slippers Percy.

* The William Hill Trophy is a 3m Handicap Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992

NEGATIVES

* BENSALEM fell two from home in last years race
* It looked like he may have won last season
* I think there are enough doubts to oppose him this year
* He has not had a run over fences since this race last year
* No past winners came from hurdles or a Graded race
* He has fallen in 2 of his 3 previous chase starts.
* Most winners had more chasing experience than him
* I would like more than 2 runs this season
* No 8 year old has won this so lightly raced this season.
* Horses with 1-2 runs this year running with 7 weeks are 0-32
* I felt he badly need his last run and may need this again
* The last 11 winners carried less than 11st
* BENSALEM has more than that when underraced
* I feel there are stamina doubts. He’s yet to win at this far
* He has a 0-5 record at 3m and more
* His Sire hasnt had too many 3m winners either
* For me there are too many doubts about BENSALEM
* BENSALEM is opposed

* There are 75 Handicap Chases at the festival at all distances
* Since 1993 that has meant 75 Festival Handicap Chases
* Horses aged 6 and 7 won 16 of these races
* None of these had just 1 or 2 runs that season
* No 6 or 7 year old won with 1-2 runs this season
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR fails that
* In fact there were only 3 that did it with 1-2-3 that year
* They were Andreas – An Accordion -Samakaan
* All 3 of those horses had Under 11st weight
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR looks weak with those angles
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR has a lot of weight with 11st 7lbs
* Only 2 of the last 17 winners had more than 11st 2lbs
* Both had Grade 1 form and he doesnt have that
* Both had 5 or more runs that season and he has just 2
* Both ran within 7 weeks and he doesnt either
* I think his weight and absence are problems
* They compact on the rest of his profile
* I looked at all English horses coming from 2m 5f or less
* None had 1-2 runs that year like GREAT ENDEAVOUR
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR has a career high mark as well

* SUNNYHILLBOY only has 2 runs this season
* I would want Grade 1 form for horses like that
* No winner won this with 1-2 runs without Grade 1 form
* There are stamina doubts and he has to come from 21f
* No horse managed that without Grade 1 form
* Throw in a long absence and he doesnt impress me
* I looked at all English horses coming from 2m 5f or less
* None had 1-2 runs that year like SUNNYHILLBOY
* Both had Grade 1 form and he only has Grade 3 form
* Both horses were older and had a more recent race
* SUNNYHILLBOY just doesnt look right

* BLAZING BAILEY has won his last 2 races
* It has left him with a career high mark and large weight
* He fails all sorts of weight statistics here
* Cheltenham have had 75 handicap chases in recent years
* Thats 74 races at the festival at all distances
* I looked for exposed horses winning with 11st 8lbs +
* Only one horse won in the last 75 races (Unguided Missile)
* He was well handicapped and well raced this year
* He also won in a small field
* BLAZING BAILEY has too much to prove for me

* REVE DE SIVOLA comes from a Grade 1 Chase
* Cheltenham have had 75 handicap chases in recent years
* Only 1 horse came from a Grade 1 Chase
* He (Sound Reveille) won the Grand Annual over 2m
* He had Pulled up just 2 days earlier in the Arkle
* REVE DE SIVOLA would be an unorthodox winner
* In his favour is that he is well handicapped on hurdle form
* He has a good record at Cheltenham as well
* He does have several problems to contend with
* He’s 6 and only 1 horse aged 6 won Since 1972 -1956
* That winner (Antonin) had 14 previous Chase runs
* REVE DE SIVOLA only has 4 Chase starts
* Thats less experienced than any recent winner bar 1
* REVE DE SIVOLA comes from 2m 6f or less
* I looked at both this race and the Kim Muir Handicap
* These are the 2 Handicap Chases over 3m at Cheltenham
* Horses from 2m 6f or shorter struggled in both races
* Horses aged Under 9 years old doing that were 0-48
* REVE DE SIVOLA also fails the last time out angles
* REVE DE SIVOLA has a weak profile in my view

* CAROLE´S LEGACY is a 7yo Mare
* No 7yo Mare has won any Festival Handicap
* Cheltenham have had 75 handicap chases in recent years
* Mares had a 2-55 record in these races
* None did it over 3m or more
* None did it  with under 4 runs that season
* None did with over a Months absence like her
* None did it with more than 10st 9lbs (0-26)
* CAROLE´S LEGACY looks unsafe to me
* Throw in the fact she comes from hurdles
* No winner of this race managed that
* She also has a higher weight than most winners
* What swings it for me is this
* There are 75 Handicap Chases at the festival
* Horses aged 7 won 10 of these 75 races
* Those carrying 11st or more were 0-47
* CAROLE´S LEGACY has 11st 5lbs
* No horse with her profile has won any Chase here
* CAROLE´S LEGACY has to go

* ADAMS ISLAND comes from a Graded Chase over 21f
* I looked at both this race and the Kim Muir Handicap
* These are the 2 Handicap Chases over 3m at Cheltenham
* Horses from 2m 6f or shorter struggled in both races
* Horses aged Under 9 years old doing that were 0-48
* No past winners came from Graded Chases anyway
* ADAMS ISLAND doesnt leap off the page to me
* Especially with an Apprentice Rider
* He has been busier this year than most previous winners
* He makes plenty of mistakes when he races as well
* No Cheltenham experience wont help
* His trainer is said to be worried about the track
* He hasnt any form in big field handicaps either
* I think this race will find him out
* NO PANIC has a poor profile
* He was beaten 99 lengths just 12 days ago
* Pulled up the time before
* Overexposed and prefers a sharper track
* There are not enough positives to consider him
* CARRICKMINES is an exposed horses
* He doesnt fit the pattern of any past winners
* No exposed horses were aged 7-8-9 like him
* They all had backclass in a higher grade than him
* He looks overraced this year since October
* He has a Career high mark on a track he’s never ran on
* This should be too hard a race for him
* SLIPPERS PERCY is impossible to fancy
* CHIEF DAN GEORGE is 11 years old
* He won this race last year with 10st 10lbs
* This year he has 11st 7lbs a very hard weight
* He also had more runs last season
* I looked at all Handicap Chases at the festival
* Thats every Handicap Chase at any distance
* Exposed 11 year olds with 1-2-3-4 runs that year are 2-72
* None carried 11st 5lbs or more
* CHIEF DAN GEORGE may just have too much to do
* RAZOR ROYALE is a course and distance winner
* He won the Racing Post Chase last year
* All 5 runs since them though have been miserable
* He tailed off in this race last year before pulling up
* Since then 4 runs and 4 heavy defeats
* I couldnt bet him on his recent form
* He doesnt feel fit enough or well enough to win
* THE SAWYER is 11 years old
* Horses aged 11 have a poor 1-46 record in this race
* I looked at all 11 year olds in all festival handicaps
* Take the ones that run within a Month
* Take the ones that have Graded Form
* Take the ones with 3-4-5-6 runs that season
* There are 5 winners like that in all festival handicaps
* THE SAWYER is the right type of 11yo
* That included the 1997 winner of this race
* Those aged 11 with 11st 2lbs or less were 1-3 in this race
* THE SAWYER should Not be opposed because of this age
* That said he was beaten further than ideal last time
* There is every chance he didnt stay last time
* It was in a Veterans Chase though which isnt ideal
* Two dilemmas for me
* Will the ground be too quick for him ?
* Has he had enough recovery time

MY SHORTLIST

* RARE BOB has 11st 10lbs to carry
* Thats a lot of weight for an exposed horse
* Cheltenham have had 75 handicap chases in recent years
* Exposed horses with 11st 8lbs or more are just 1-58
* That winner had more runs this season
* He didnt have that long an absence either
* That winner in the 1-58 record ran in this race
* That was Unguided Missile in 1998
* He had a 45 day break which is only 20 days less
* He also came from 2m 5f just as RARE BOB did
* That fact alone tells me I cant rule him out
* RARE BOB is a good price at 25/1

* KING FONTAINE is worth considering
* The only angle he fails is his last run wasnt good
* He Pulled up over 3m 4f at Haydock last time
* Ideally you want a horse 1-2-3-4 last time and he wasnt
* That said there are reasons to overlook that
* 1999 winner (Bettys Boy) was well beaten before winning
* He dropped from 3m 4f as well and was unexposed too
* He has a good weight and before his last run was flying
* He would have needed the run last time
* He has been dropped 2lbs in the weights as well
* He fits all the other important trends
* This is a horse thats going to the Grand National
* There has to be a concern this is a prep race
* All concerns are compensated by a very big price
*  KING FONTAINE is a big price at 33/1

* FAIR ALONG has to carry 11st 7lbs
* Thats a lot of weight for a small horse
* Thats probably my biggest worry about him
* Not sure about him either in a big field
* All his Chase runs have come in small fields
* All exposed winners of this had more runs that season
* They were also older than him as well as well
* FAIR ALONG has plenty in his favour though
* He is a high class Group 1 horse
* He is not badly weighted off 148
* I think he has the class to win this off a big  weight
* It’s just whether he can jump well enough
* Thats when a small horse in a big field with a big weight

* THE RAINBOW HUNTER is a lightly raced 7yo
* No concerns he has never run beyond Class 3 before
* Not dissimilar to 2006 winner Dun Doire
* I see him as progressive and a serious runner

* WOLF MOON won a Novice Chase last time
* The 2004 and 2008 winners of this race did that
* Both were 8 year olds as WOLF MOON is
* As a profile I am happy with that
* You could say the two other winners came from better tracks
* They both won with absences as well and he doesnt
* Neither were out of the handicap either
* WOLF MOON is 6lbs wrong at the weights
* That has to hurt him when there is a class issue
* Its a lot to ask for a Catterick Novice Chase winner
* There has been 1 winner of this out of the weights
* That was maamur back in 1996
* He was also an 8yo
* He also won within the past 15 days like WOLF MOON
* Thats what swings it for me
* Profile wise he is more than good enough to shortlist

* EXMOOR RANGER was brought down at the 7th last year
* I gave him a really good chance of winning this last year
* I wouldnt rule him out with 3lbs more this year
* Technically he is exposed with 21 runs but I forgive that
* He is on the cusp and he hasnt ran 21 full races yet
* Happy to overlook 11st 3lbs as well
* There are some doubts about him
* I dont like the fact he has a career high mark
* I dont like the fact he Unseated rider last time either
* He was going well when he fell though
* Statistically I cant match him as he wasnt 1-2-3-4 last time
* I still give him a good chance in this race
* Ground Trip and Track are right for him
* Very much one of the better options

LATEST ODDS AND PRICES FOR THIS RACE

See http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-03-15/cheltenham/14-40/betting/

 

 

********** CHELTENHAM DEAL  ************
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Posted under Major Horse Races

UTTOXETER 2.35 -  PACHA D´OUDAIRIES

9/2 at s james

This horse has been dropping fast in the ratings so
is now able to slot in nicely to a weak 0-100 Chase
having been rated significantly higher in the recent
past. He has not fulfilled his potential for a stronger
stable last year but he doesn’t need to fulfill it to be
competetive in this race and I think there is a case
to argue that he could outclass these horses today.

UTTOXETER 2.35

Richard Wilcoxson Memorial
Novices´ Handicap Chase (CLASS 4)
(5yo+ 0-100) 2m5f

11/4 Festival Dreams, 3/1 Handtheprizeover
4/1 Pacha D´oudairies, 9/2 Mister Wiseman, 11/2 Innominate
20/1 Delgany Gunner, 50/1 Action Hawk.

This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 2m 5f. Not an easy
race and 7 runners dont help. I looked at all similar races
at this time of year. I wasnt keen on MISTER WISEMAN
as an exposed horse with an absence. I wasnt prepared to
be with HANDTHEPRIZEOVER as a 6 year old coming
up in distance when lightly raceed this season. I could not
see a case for either of the outsiders DELGANY GUNNER
or ACTION HAWK. I respect INNOMINATE but I could
not match him to any winners and he is lighter raced this
season. FESTIVAL DREAMS has a good chance and looks
a big threat here. PACHA D´OUDAIRIES has to be the
best bet here. He is essentially dissapointing but he is now
rated 100 and thrown in on his hurdles form. He has far
more backclass than FESTIVAL DREAMS and has now
slipped in nicely to a 0-100 class race. He should be able
to outclass these and  PACHA D´OUDAIRIES is the bet.

Posted under horse racing tips

CHEPSTOW 1.45

Coral Welsh National Handicap Chase
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m5f110y

4/1 Synchronised, 6/1 Maktu, 8/1 Dance Island
10/1 Watamu Bay, 14/1 Arbor Supreme, 14/1 Dream Alliance
14/1 Exmoor Ranger, 14/1 Giles Cross, 14/1 Silver By Nature
16/1 Ballyfoy, 20/1 Ballyfitz, 20/1 I´moncloudnine
25/1 Old Benny, 25/1 Royal Rosa, 33/1 Bench Warrent
33/1 Theatre Dance, 40/1 Dashing George, 40/1 Flight Leader
40/1 Magic Sky, 50/1 Eric´s Charm.

The Welsh National is a Handicap Chase over an extended
3m 5f. Usually run in December the race has been moved to
January after the recent cold weather.
That leaves a dilemma about whether to rely on statistics for this
and all other races  when they have been run in December and
especially when all  horses are a year older once we get to January.
In the end the best plan for me was to look at all similar races over 3 months

* December – January – Febuary have 65 Handicap Chases
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases between 3m 5f and 4m
* Thats 65 of these races in Class 2 – Listed – Grade 3

There are several of these that look quite simple to eliminate from consideration.
ERIC´S CHARM and ROYAL ROSA do not appeal and look too old with no
winners aged 11 or more since 1976. FLIGHT LEADER – MAGIC Sky are also passed
over as too old. DASHING GEORGE has completely a wrong
preparation. BENCH WARRENT didnt do much last time and
I wasnt sure he will stay in the ground. All his sires wins over a distance like this in
the class are on firm ground and he looks unsafe to me. OLD BENNY looks on the
road to Cheltenham and probably wont be fit here. I looked at all 10 year olds
that ran in these races with 1 run that season. The only horses that won with the
profile were last time out winners. He was beaten too far and it may be the
same as last years race when he was beaten miles after 1 poor run last year.
BALLYFOY is facing a similar problem as a 10yo with 1 run this year and he
doesnt have much backclass. I’d question his stamina. I’d question his suitability to the track too.
THEATRE DANCE may struggle  coming from 2m5f and he has not achieved much this season.
ARBOR SUPREME may pop up but I dislike his profile as an  exposed horse and beaten easily
on his only run this year. He  looks badly handicapped to me and may be on the road back
to the Grand National. The problem with GILES CROSS apart  from Stamina and a
testing absence is his last run.
Very few  winners managed to win these sort of races without finishing last time and I felt he was unsafe.

* SYNCHRONISED doesnt convince me completely
* My argument is his weight and his class
* He has 11st 6lbs and No form in Graded races before
* I looked at horses with no previous runs in Graded races
* Those that had 11st or more had a 0-29 record
* Almost all past winners of the race had GradedForm before
* 13 of the last 14 winners had no more than 11st weight
* He has to overcome that weight stat without graded form
* SYNCHRONISED has a stiff task for me with his weight
* SILVER BY NATURE was 2nd in last years race
* He had 10st 2lbs last year yet has 11st 12lbs this year
* Thats a massive jump considering he’s run just twice since
* SILVER BY NATURE fails a lot of angles
* He has a horrible weight with 11st 12lbs
* He ran badly last time out as well
* Exposed with 1 run this year he looks wrong to me
* All these are serious problems for an exposed horse
* DREAM ALLIANCE won this last year with 10st 8lbs
* This year he has a crippling weight of 11st 12lbs
* He is not in the same form as he was last year
* He fails multiple angles including a poor last run
* I think its too much of an ask to win again
* WATAMU BAY is very inexperienced with 3 chase runs
* Going back to 1990 the winners had these Chase runs
* 10-9-4-4-16-7-24-8-14-17-8-13-22-12-12-9-14-18
* WATAMU BAY will be the least experience winner in ages
* WATAMU BAY also comes from a Novice Chase
* Only 1 of the 65 winners managed that
* That horse was older and had more experience
* He also won within 2 weeks and had a stone less weight
* 11st 3lbs is a tough ask for a Novice Chaser
* Dont forget 13 of the last 14 winners had 11st or less
* I don’t like his chance when inexperienced with weight

There is a case statistically for I´MONCLOUDNINE. The
big problem is Chepstow is a track he has never experienced
before. It would worry me his wins are on sharp flat tracks and most
were right handed too.  I´MONCLOUDNINE also suffers from a lack of backclass.
Almost all past winners of the race  had Graded Form before and none with
13 or more runs failed  to have form in a Graded race before.
I nearly shortlisted him but I couldnt get past the Track suitability.
What swung it was the half brother who only won right handed on fast tracks.

SHORTLIST

EXMOOR RANGER – DANCE ISLAND
MAKTU  -BALLYFITZ

* DANCE ISLAND has 4 Chase starts
* There were 2 recent winners with only 4 chase runs
* Statistically I can turn a blind eye to some of his problems
* I can not match him exactly to any of the 65 winners
* Partly as he has an absence but so do many
* Partly  as he is 8 and comes from 3m or shorter
* I don’t feel he has a bad profile just not a good or safe one
* I would have to question whether he will stay this far
* I think there is a serious stamina doubt in this class

* EXMOOR RANGER has a good profile
* You would be worried about stamina on this ground
* I dont see him getting home on this ground
* Noy with a tough weight and a stiff handicap mark

* MAKTU has a decent chance with strong track form
* Ground – Consistency and a decent weight all in his favour
* I would have liked more backclass
* He is unexposed over fences though
* He has never been out of the 1-2-3-4 in all 8 chase starts

BALLYFITZ is technically too old as an 11 year old but as
he wouldnt have been last week it seems we should overlook
that.I ran his profile in all the 65 other races.
There were 3  winners aged 11 that had 1-2 runs that season like him.
None of them were as absent as long as he is but we have to overlook
that when so many others have absences because of the harsh winter.
BALLYFITZ ran well in this race last year.
I felt he’d been overprepared last year.
He had a hard race in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham and then took in the
Hennessy as well. That was more than enough but he then went and won over
hurdles at Sandown as well and this may have been too much for him.
This year he has been far better prepared and now he gets to race off a 10lbs lower mark.
That will be a serious help as will a better preparation and he has only has 12 starts over fences.
I’m overlooking his age as he would have been a
10 year old last week and this is a career low mark for him in a Chase.
His run last year suggests he should at least place.
I feel the best option is to bet both horses in a split stake bet.

SELECTION

MAKTU – Win Bet 13/2  ( now 6/1 Coral  bet365 BoyleSports )

BALLYFITZ – Win Bet 16/1 + bet365  BoyleSports  William Hill

Posted under Major Horse Races