Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Cheltenham 3.20

LAST INSTALMENT 7/1 Win Bet

ON HIS OWN 22/1 Each Way

The main issues are well documented. I feel
LAST INSTALMENT has every chance and has
one of the best two profiles. My each way bet
ON HIS OWN is obviously a hard case to make.
I think he is a crazy sort of price and although
many argue he fails trends it is not necessarily
the case. I think these 2 have serious chances.

 

Cheltenham 3.20

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

7/4 Bobs Worth, 5/2 Silviniaco Conti, 13/2 Last Instalment
8/1 Triolo D´alene, 14/1 The Giant Bolster 16/1 On His Own
25/1 Lord Windermere, 33/1 Teaforthree
40/1 Lyreen Legend, 50/1 Katenko, 66/1 Cloudy Too
66/1 Knockara Beau, 100/1 Houblon Des Obeaux.

* The Blue Riband event of the festival
* Lets get rid of the No Hopers
* Horses aged 11 and over have not won this race since 1969.
* KNOCKARA BEAU is too old and not good enough
* KATENKO and CLOUDY TOO are outclassed
* HOUBLON DES OBEAUX is not good enough
* TEAFORTHREE is out of his depth

* TRIOLO D´ALENE won the Hennessy last time out
* Bobs Worth did that recently but I can’t have him
* Bobs Worth was a Grade 1 Festival winner
* TRIOLO D´ALENE has never run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* His 2 previous runs here were heavy defeats
* TRIOLO D´ALENE is rated only 158 far too low

* LORD WINDERMERE and LYREEN LEGEND are connected
* They were 1st and 2nd in last years RSA Chase at the festival

* LYREEN LEGEND was 2nd in last years RSA Chase
* It would worry me he has won just 1 of 8 Chases
* He is rated lower than any recent Gold Cup winner
* The last 23 winners had this in common
* They had a Racing Post Rating of 155 + last time out
* LYREEN LEGEND only managed a rating of 154
* After 18 career starts 154 is his highest Racing Post Rating
* Every other horse has bettered that rating before
* That amongst other things must rule him out

* LORD WINDERMERE has a similar profile and problem
* He is rated lower than any recent Gold Cup winner
* The last 23 winners had this in common
* They had a Racing Post Rating of 155 + last time out
* After 15 career starts 157 is his highest Racing Post Rating
* Almost every other horse has bettered that rating before
* LORD WINDERMERE only managed a rating of 157

Now if LYREEN LEGEND or LORD WINDERMERE win this
race at a big price it will be down to the fact the course
ground or time of year brings them alive but I suspect it
was a very poor RSA Chase last year which was openly
said at the time and these two dominated a bad renewal
and it is hard to make a case for them when they have a
set of numbers that just look so far behind the standard.

SILVINIACO CONTI

I don’t doubt he has enough ability to win this race but
I feel he is too short around 100/30 for a horse that may
not stay. When he fell in last year’s race some argue he
wasn’t beaten but I doubt he would have stayed on well
enough to win. I question his stamina. I don’t like horses
that are undersized like him. He isn’t a big horse and he
is not proven yet in a field as big as this. Statistical he’s
fine but I don’t like his size and question his stamina as
he is taking on some big Irish improvers with substance.

BOBS WORTH

Little doubt he’s top class and won this last year and was
always going to have a good profile this year. He has got
a massive chance but not really for me. I wouldn’t want to
ask him to win this again. It was a gruelling race last year
and he was in trouble at one stage before staying on late.
On this ground he could find himself in more trouble and
having to come from off the pace. We can’t be sure last
years race has not left it’s mark. Last season he recorded
Racing Post Ratings of 167 174 and 181 yet this year from
two runs he has clocked just 142 and 163 and there is the
possibility he won’t recapture last years form. He is still
the most likely winner but at the price I am against him.
He touched 10/1 in running last year and on fast ground
he could easily do the same this year. I just don’t like the
short price when he will be carrying battle scars this year.

 

THE GIANT BOLSTER

* THE GIANT BOLSTER now has 19 previous chase runs
* Recent Gold Cup winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 8 9 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 Chases
* He is now out of range of the ideal profile
* 16 of the last 17 winners had 13 or fewer Chase runs
* He was 4th last year and 2nd in 2012 though
* He Loves the track and has plenty of class
* I did see him as a potential each way bet at 16/1
* He wants fast ground and a small field
* He should love the ground but the field size worries me
* 14 runners is not as small as I’d like
* I think he is at the limit of his stamina
* He has won over 3m 1f 100 yds before
* His Sire has not yet bred a winner winning over further
* You couldn’t rule him out but maybe just falls short

ON HIS OWN

* This horse is a 10 year old
* Horses aged 10 or more have a 1-93 record since 1993
* It’s not the best of records but don’t worry about that
* He is a late foal and actually not quite 10 yet in real terms
* ON HIS OWN does have only 12 career starts though
* 16 of the last 17 winners had 13 or fewer Chase runs
* That goes a log way to compensating for his age
* He also didn’t start racing until he was almost 6 years old
* I have mentioned I think he will win the Grand National
* He has every right to run here after a brilliant last win
* His last 2 runs show significant improvement
* There is a case that he jumps a bit right handed
* He has won left handed three times before though
* The track is an open question mark
* Ignore his poor run here back in 2011 over 4m
* He had no chance in that race and it’s irrelevant
* He was 4th in a Neptune Hurdle which is encouraging
* Ability wise I think he has everything he needs to win
* Just not sure about whether he can deliver here or not

LAST INSTALMENT

* He is a lightly raced improver
* He won the Irish Hennessy last time
* He has won 5 of his 6 Chase runs so far
* Recent Gold Cup winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 8 9 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 Chases
* LAST INSTALMENT has 6 runs and I quite like that
* One of his problem is No form at Cheltenham
* That is a disadvantage he has to overcome
* 13 of the last 16 winners placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
* The other is the ground as most of his form’s on soft
* Said to have fragile tendons it would be a worry
* That said the new course is slower than the old course
* He has a very appealing profile and the potential to win

 

Selections

LAST INSTALMENT 7/1 Win Bet

ON HIS OWN 22/1 Each Way

For Live best odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2014-03-14/cheltenham/15-20/betting/

 

 

 

FREE £10 No Lose Bet On The Gold Cup
AND a £50 FREE BET From Betfair

( only for those with no Betfair account yet unfortunately )

If you were to force me to ditch all my bookie accounts bar one
then the one I would choose to hold on to would be Betfair.

Key reasons would be

- Typically higher odds than bookies on their Exchange
– Ability to lay as well as back
– Ability to lock in profits by trading

This offer applies to their newish sportsbook section
( a bit like a traditional bookmaker )

What I would do if I were you is use the offer on the sportsbook
today but then longer term move to using their Exchange
for the reasons outlined above.

See full details of how to bag this offer at this link

Betfair Offer

 

 

Our Cheltenham Deal

Our deal page is still live at

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

Whist being Cheltenham titled it is actually a full month of Full Membership at half price. The 14 day zero strings refund gives you plenty of time to test and kick the tryes fo the full memebr’s service.

I will keep it live till after the weekend then it is gone again till next year.

 

 

 

 

Saturday Day Pass

 

After the highs of Cheltenham we are back to the daily grind of finding edge for our clients in normal racing. For those of you who really only have time to ponder racing on a Saturday note that our dip in dip out as you choose Saturday Day Pass is now open.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass/

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

You will have no trouble finding stats for the Gold Cup.

Below however are some of my own extracted from my 50 page
Cheltenham stats document. Use them to supplement your own
study of the race or even better perhaps, save your brain
cells and read my own final interpretation of this race on
race day as a client.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

We did well in this race year using the excessive media hype
around the the Kauto Star Long Run battle to pick of value
odds on Synchronised. See a copy of our reasoning at this
link    Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

 

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2013 Stats

Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

 

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y

* 16 of the last 17 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts

* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009

* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases

* 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled

* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-88 record

* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse

* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record.

* They’ve won 17 of the last 19 Cheltenham Gold Cups.

* Horses aged 10 do not have a great record

* Horses aged 10 have a 1-93 record since 1992

* Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969

* All 38 that ran in the last 18 years lost.

* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.

* I wouldn’t’t want a horse with fewer runs that season

* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine

* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.

* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form.

* 12 of the last 15 winners placed at a previous Festival.

* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out

* The only exception was 2011 winner 5th in a Grade 1

* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.

* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race

* Horses from a Grade 1 – Grade 2 chase last time are best

* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best

* Every winner since 1992 had managed that

* A Novice has not won the Gold Cup since 1974

* Two recent winners came from Handicaps

* Both those winners had Grade 1 Form before

* No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat

 

 

Service News

Cheltenham betting action has started already with a long
odds ante post tip advised to clients this morning. Ante Post
betting before the start of the Festival is safer these days
with an abundance of non runner no bet offers.

We are playing in the 2.40 on Tuesday – The JLT Specialty
Handicap Chase

This was yet another good race for us in 2012 with advised
bet ALFIE SHERRIN winning nicely for us. ALFIE SHERRIN was
available at 20/1 at bookmakers for hours after we tipped
him and probably even greater odds were available on Betfair
.

We said at the time:

* ALFIE SHERRIN is very interesting

* Go back to the 2010 Cheltenham Festival

* He was a huge gamble starting 11/4 for the Pertemps

* He was Paul Nicholls trained then moved to Jonjo

* Had his quirks – been hard to train – but has some positives

* ALFIE SHERRIN is rated 147 over hurdles

* Today over fences he is rated 129

* The first thing we know is he is very well treated

* The next thing we know are his connections

* JP McManus and Jonjo O’Neill

* We know we can put a line through several runs

* There is every chance he has been saved for this race

* I opposed him in the Midlands Grand National

* He was too inexperienced and after than he was unreadable

* Switched between Hurdles and Chases and different distances

* I think he is being conditioned to win a good race

* His jumping may not be as safe as I’d like

* Not sure how robust or reliable he is

* I watched both his last two races though

* Both left me certain he was given quiet rides

* JPMcManus paid £110k for this horse. He wasn’t cheap.

* He should be much happier on this ground

* Not keen he comes from hurdles or out or the handicap

* I do think the good outweighs the bad at 20/1 +

* Tony McCoy can’t do 10st which is why he doesn’t ride

* I see him very much as the Stables Number 1 option

* He could easily fall or go missing without trace

* Equally he is thrown in and this could be his day

 

But who are we on this year?

 

Take the secret cheap deal and find out.

Be sure to pick up today’s message in our member area when
you do.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham Festival Novice Handicap Chase Stat

Cheltenham Festival

Novice Handicap Chase Stat

Today I want to give you a statistic to bear in mind

for next week’s Handicap Chases. That’s any and

every Handicap Chase except the Novice Handicap.

I have examined all Handicap Chases run in the

last 15 years and more. Because it involves every

handicap it’s a solid trend.

 

* All Handicap Chases at the Cheltenham Festival

* I looked at horses from a Novice Handicap Chase

* All 19 that tried to do this Lost with these results

* 4 6 8 F PU 10 PU 12 7 9 13 F 13 7 PU PU 12 14 8

* None of the 19 horses Placed 1-2-3 in these races

Many people think you want a lightly raced chaser

thats improving from Novice Company and there is

no problem at all with that sort of horse. However

whilst many festival handicap chases are won by

horses that come from Novice Chases there hasn’t

yet been one that has been won by a horse that is

coming from a Novice Handicap. Admittedly only

19 of these tried but they all finished 4th or worse.

 

 

Cheltenham Deal Now Live

I have had many emails this week asking if and when our Cheltenham
deal would go live.

Today is the day

See www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

Key Points:

  • You get a heavily discounted first month of full membership
    here
  • Arguably the most in depth Cheltenham Analysis around.
  • Your month will also include the major Grand National
    Festival at Aintree
  • Rock solid Guarantee. Decide AFTER Cheltenham if we provided
    you top class value or not.

 

 

Should I join Now or just before Cheltenham?

I would say right now. You get immediate access to full service
membership.

There will be a fair bit of action this weekend to look forward
to with the likes of the Imperial Cup and Sandown to get stuck
into.

A few days of feet finding as a member will do you no harm
before Cheltenham starts on Tuesday.

Here is that secret cheap deal link again

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

PS I will back tomorrow with further free Cheltenham nuggets
of info.

Not quite sure what with yet but it might be a look at an
individual Cheltenham race from a stats and trends point of
view.

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chases

2013 Cheltenham Festival Countdown

We are ready for the Cheltenham Festival. The ground

work has all been done and the highlight of the season

will soon be upon us.

 

This is the start of a series of free warm up messages for

Cheltenham. I hope you enjoy them and will find some

value in them as we get closer to Cheltenham.

 

Many sources will be churning out the same old hackneyed

stats and trends.

We plan to provide you with less run of the mill stuff

that could provide you with extra edge against the crowds.

 

We had an excellent Cheltenham Last year.

Many members who joined last March stayed and

are still with us. They now realise there is not any

other service out there that offers anything like as

comprehensive and as ground breaking as we do.

 

WARNING – DO NOT JOIN US TODAY

It is becoming tradition here to offer a cut price deal

for Cheltenham month.

My webman will get a cheap join page sorted

for you over the next few days.

So wait for the cheaper deal is my best advice.

I will tell you when ready via this newsletter.

 

Anyhow on to today’s stat nugget.

 

Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chases

This is a good statistic that you won’t read about

anywhere else that I hope will provide quite a few

negatives at the meeting. Everyone seems to be

in two camps with Statistics during Cheltenham.

You have the Die Hard statistical punters refusing

to consider and bet horses that are not consistent

with the particular statistic they have heard about

or bought in publications. They treat statistics at

the meeting religiously and wont budge from them.

We also have the sceptics in another camp who

refuse to acknowledge the validity of betting from

a statistical perspective. They are so often quick

to remind everyone when a statistic doesn’t work

out which is always going to happen quite often.

I don’t see myself in either camp. I see the huge

benefits statistics do bring but also the dangers.

You need a level of statistical maturity to benefit

from this approach to betting. One of the reasons

some people use statistics at Cheltenham might

be that the field sizes are so big it is impossible

to cope with all the runners and this way allows

people to reduce the workload. It’s slightly lazy.

I don’t follow individual statistics. I like to see a

combination of statistics. For example I do not

mind if my horse has a high weight but only if

they are the right type of horse that does that.

This is a statistic that I think is quite relevant.

 

* Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chases

* Since 1997 there have been 60 of these

* That’s over any and every distance

* This does not include the Novice Handicap Chase

* This does not include the Cross Country Race

* 15 Winners carried 11st or more to win

* Look at the record of 7 year olds with 11st or more

* Horses aged 7 or more with 11st or more are 0-71

* I don’t mind high weighted horses in handicap Chases

* I don’t mind 7 year olds in handicap Chases

* I do think twice before I bet 7yo’s with high weights

* This 0-71 record seems quite a strong one to me

* 24 of the 71 Losers were 10/1 or shorter

* Were not talking about a load of no hopers here

Watch the 7 year olds this week in the Handicap Chases.

There should be quite a few. It will be interesting to see
if the well fancied and well touted SUPER DUTY can break

this statistic. He is a 7 year old and has 11st 9lbs on the

Thursday in the Kim Muir Handicap and is 6/1 favourite.

I’m not saying he wont win. I am just illustrating an angle

that is Not in the public domain that needs to be thought

about and considered. Some say ignorance is bliss and

that may be true but this game’s an intellectual challenge

and I would rather know about these things that not know

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Haydock Horse Racing Tip

A good day yesterday with 15 races profiled for full members
and highlighted horses finishing  L W W W L L L P L W L W W W W

8 winners from 15 races examined ain’t too bad.

Today full members have multiple races profiled for them
I did find one Full bet ( my strongest grade ) for them in the 4pm race.

Here on the free blog I have a top of message bet for you ( my second strongest grade )

Full membership is instantaneous so you can get in for todays action right away
if you want it.

here is the link ==> Betting Advice

 

Todays Free Horse Racing Tip

Haydock  4.05

100/30 Ohio Gold, 9/2 Cloudy Too, 11/2 Achimota
11/2 Yurok, 6/1 Furrows, 7/1 Tenor Nivernais
7/1 The Chazer, 14/1 Makethe Mostofnow.

* This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 2m 4f
* OHIO GOLD is the shortest priced horse
* Bothers me he has less runs this year than anything
* I dont feel two runs is enough for a horse with 15 runs
* Not for a horse thats coming up in distance
* Not for a horse from a Novice Chase
* The 7 past winners had 3 4 4 5 3 5 9 chase runs
* The 7 past winners had 6 4 4 5 3 3 3 runs this season
* OHIO GOLD only has 2 Chase runs less than all winners
* Every past winner came from a 2m 4f race or further.
* OHIO GOLD doesnt do that either
* I looked at horses from Novice Chases
* Those that stepped up in trip strzggled
* They only won when very lightly raced
* Those with 13 + runs had a 1-78 record
* OHIO GOLD – I think he comes out badly
* TENOR NIVERNAIS comes from a Novice Chase
* He is a bit too exposed to be doing that
* THE CHAZER also comes from a Novice Chase
* He looks too exposed to go in again
* Especially against lighter raced improvers
* MAKETHE MOSTOFNOW isnt running well enough

Shortlist

* CLOUDY TOO – His last win gets him shortlisted
* I’d have prefered him a bit lighter raced though

* ACHIMOTA comes from a 2m Novice Chase
* We know all past winners came from 2m 4f or more
* He isnt like any winner of this race
* There are winners elsewhere just like him though
* FURROWS has the same problem
* With 2 Chase starts I’d have liked 1 more

* YUROK comes from a 3m Novice Chase
* Thats a good profile 2 past winners did that
* The 2006-2007 winners of this did just that
* Both had just 3 Chase starts like YUROK
* His trainer won this in 2011
* That winner had 3 chase runs

Selection

YUROK 6/1 Win Bet
ACHIMOTA 5/1 Saver
Bet them both on Betfair  I suggest
( saver: small bet staked to win back the stake on the main bet if the saver wins )

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on February 16, 2013

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