If you like a Grand National horse don’t let me or my angles talk you out of it.
I don’t feel this is an easy race this year and I’m hopeful rather than confident.
You get just the one chance a year to bet the winner so don’t let me cost you the winner.
My Grand National selection (s) are these
HELLO BUD 50/1
NICHE MARKET 22/1
AINTREE 4.15
John Smith´s Grand National Chase
(Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (6yo+) 4m4f
Forecast Odds
9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 12/1 Mon Mome, 12/1 The Package
16/1 Arbor Supreme, 16/1 Black Apalachi, 16/1 Character Building 16/1 Niche Market,
16/1 Snowy Morning, 16/1 State Of Play 16/1 Tricky Trickster, 20/1 Backstage,
20/1 Comply Or Die 20/1 Don´t Push It, 25/1 Vic Venturi, 28/1 Irish Raptor 28/1
King Johns Castle, 33/1 Ballyholland, 33/1 Can´t Buy Time 33/1 Maljimar, 33/1 My Will,
40/1 Cloudy Lane, Dream Alliance 40/1 Eric´s Charm, 40/1 Hello Bud, 50/1 Ballyfitz, 50/1
Cerium 50/1 Madison Du Berlais, 66/1 Flintoff, Nozic, Palypso De Creek 66/1 Royal Rosa,
100/1 Beat The Boys, 100/1 Conna Castle 100/1 Ellerslie George, 100/1 Joe Lively,
100/1 Ollie Magern 100/1 Piraya, 100/1 Preists Leap, 150/1 Made In Taipan 150/1 Pablo Du Charmil.
The Grand National is never easy but never as hard as
is often portrayed and not everything can win the race
as the old cliche goes. The ground could play a bigger
part this year as its drying out.
I think this years race has an unusual frame to it with no horses carrying less than 10st 5lbs
and 19 runners having 11st or more.
The stats that suggest horses don’t win with over 11st has never been more vulnerable as it is this year.
Not planning to have a huge preview of the race but very keen to get it right this year and I’m turning a blind eye to some stats.
My favourite Grand National statistic that applies to all
similar races in the first half of the year is as follows.
* Since 1992 there has been 65 Handicaps
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases over 3m 7f or more
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases with at least 12 runners
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases in Class 2 or Higher Grade
* This includes the last 16 Grand Nationals
* It includes the Scottish , Irish and Midlands Nationals
* Exposed horses struggle with under 5 runs that season
* They have a 2-337 record in these races
* They were 0-144 in this race
* In all races at 4m and more they were just 1-293
I would strongly avoid all horses that are exposed and
lightly raced this season with under 5 runs. This is why
I would make the following horses negatives.
Madison Du Berlais - Black Apalachi - Don’t Push It
Comply Or Die - Dream Alliance - Character Building
Pablo Du Charmil - State of Play - Cloudy Lane - My Will
Eric’s Charm - King Johns Castle - Maljimar - Irish Raptor -Flintoff- Cerium - Royal Rosa. NOZIC is also short of runs.
It is a well known fact that the last 7 year old winner of
this race was back in 1940 and I couldnt have any horse
that age. In addition to those already opposed above I
would add TRICKY TRICKSTER who is actually only 6
years and 10 months old foaled in June 2003. Others aged
7 to be rejected are THE PACKAGE who has fewer races
over fences than all recent winners. PALYPSO DE CREEK
and PIRAYA are both out as 7 year olds.
* Since 1992 there has been 65 Handicaps
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases over 3m 7f or more
If you look my sample size of 65 races discussed earlier that covers every similar race to this as well
as this one they also show that you have to have been at least 1st 2nd or 3rd in a recent race.
In fact All 65 winners had managed to be placed 1-2-3 in their last six runs.
This should rule out all the out of form horses in the doldrums showing no recent promise.
It’s a trend PREISTS LEAP fails. BIG FELLA THANKS deserves massive credit for
finishing 6th last year as a 7 year old. This year he is 8 although not quite 8 for a
few more weeks yet as he was foaled late. I don’t like that about him. I hate the fact
he has just 3 runs this year and did not finish in one of those races.
I think coming from 2m 4f also hurts a horse as young as him and he has far too many
holes in his profile at a short enough price. CAN´T BUY TIME has a similar problem
age 8 and having to step up from 2m 4f with just 3 runs this season.
I can not find any similar horse winning in the 65 races.
The record of certain horses coming from 2m 4f or shorter is awful. MADE IN TAIPAN makes no appeal doing this. Neither does
BALLYHOLLAND coming from a 17f Chase and opposed for
that reason and because he has not won over 3 Miles before
something every winner since 1988 had done. BACKSTAGE
is also 8 years old and up from a 2m 4f race and I couldn’t get a similar winner to
him and he looks on the inexperienced side as well. CONNA CASTLE is out
exposed and up significantly in distance. Exposed horses that come from chases
over 2m 6f or shorter had a 0-66 record in the 69 races.
Thats one of the reasons why I am not convinced about SNOWY MORNING.
OLLIE MAGERN looks wrong and impossible to fancy.
I feel JOE LIVELY has far too much weight for an exposed 11yo.
It’s unheard of for an exposed horse like ELLERSLIE GEORGE to win without
Graded form. BEAT THE BOYS fails many angles. BALLYFITZ doesnt have a bad profile
although he doesn’t jump well enough and I would not be confident he would get round.
I hate the fact he has only won Novice Chases and he also comes from a hurdle race.
POSSIBLES
VIC VENTURA has to be considered. I think he has quite a
stiff handicap mark courtesy of being so consistent. I think his rating and handicap mark hurt him.
Statistically having won 3 races this season he wouldn’t be like many winners and coming from a
small field graded chase doesnt impress me. My gut feeling is that although interesting in terms of
class and his 5-6 runs this season the price he is paying for 3 wins this season may be too high
and his weight may just be the undoing of him.
ARBOUR SUPREME has factors I don’t like. If you look at
the 65 similar races that include the last 16 renewals of this race. Horses with 13 + career starts
absent over a month like ARBOUR SUPREME won 18 of the 65 races.
Those under 10 years old were 6-174. ARBOUR SUPREME is only aged
8 and that 6-174 record applies to all horses under 10.
Those without form in Grade 1 races like him were just 1-89.
None of them came from short of 3 Miles as he does.
He’s not the best age. Having 4 runs this year is no advantage.
Neither is stepping up from 2m 6f.
Combine all those factors and as a horse with no Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
I think a combination of all of them might prove too much for him.
MON MOME won this by 12 lengths last year carrying 11st.
He has 11st 7lbs this year. His weight was always going to
be his big problem. That said he’d have won the race last year with 7lbs
more weight and many past winners were clobbered more than he has been.
In a year I personally wouldnt listen to negative weight statistics much I’d give
him a better chance than many and I would have him as 3rd-4th-5th pick in the race.
SHORTLIST
NICHE MARKET - HELLO BUD
I don’t much like exposed 12 year olds like HELLO BUD but
what few winners there were like her had similar credentials to him and I can ot rule him out at 50/1.
NICHE MARKET has a good profile. He prepped really well at Cheltenham when he was wrong statistically.
I would have liked more wins and some form left handed but he has a fair chance.
SELECTION
NICHE MARKET 25/1
HELLO BUD 50/1
Blog comment : prices dropped a touch from the above which was given to full members earlier
Hello Bud now 40/1 Coral VC Ladbrokes CanBet or 48/1 Betfair
Niche Market now 20/1 sjames VC bet365 or 23/1 Betfair
Posted under Major Horse Races
This post was written by mick on April 10, 2010
