Cheltenham Horse Racing Bet

CHELTENHAM 2.35

9/4 Carruthers, 5/2 Madison Du Berlais, 3/1 Inchidaly Rock, 12/1 Joe Lively, 12/1 Taranis, 20/1 Ollie Magern, 33/1 Knowhere.

The Argento chase is a Grade 2 chase over 25f. The history
of this race demands a horse that has ran in a Grade 1 race
or a Grade 2 at the very least. All past winners did that and 9 out of 10 had Grade 1 before.
They also show you want a penalised horse as well which means in this race carrying more
than 11st. Therefore I am ignoring TARANIS with a massive absence.
OLLIE MAGERN is out unpenalised and
older than any past winner. INCHIDALY ROCK does not
appeal as he has no Graded form and none of the winners
came from a Novice Chase like him. Last year JOE LIVELY
won this but he was in much better form then and I couldnt
trust him  aged 11 with an inferior preperation. KNOWHERE
is too old. I dont fancy any of the above. This is between
MADISON DU BERLAIS - CARRUTHERS. What bothers
me about CARRUTHERS is past winners came from Listed
or a graded Chases and he comes from a Graduation Chase
and has fewer chase starts than every other past winner.
MADISON DU BERLAIS  has a solid profile and comes
from the best trial race the King George at Kempton. Its
pretty cleat he is best on a Flatter track but he has placed here at the Cheltenham Festival
and does have some form here. I am going with CARRUTHERS as he loves smaller
fields and has a great record in them.

Selection - CARRUTHERS

Was best priced 9/4 earlier today when I sent this out to full members.

Has shortened up a  touch since then.
19/10 CanBet   ( a bookmaker who run an interesting bonus of giving you
a percentage of any losses abck at the end of each month )

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips

ASCOT 12.55

4/1 Noakarad De Verzee, 5/1 River Ripples, Skipper´s Lad
6/1 Plein Pouvoir, 6/1 Pure Genius, 10/1 Knighton Combe
12/1 Flaco, 14/1 Plane Painter, 16/1 Aldiruos, 16/1 Sarahs Gift16/1 Senor Shane.

There has been 87 of these Novice Handicap Chases at
this time of year. No horse with 13 + starts dropped from
3m 3f or more so SKIPPER’S LAD isn’t like any of the
87 winners and is rejected. It’s interesting PURE GENIUS
is a mare and no mare came from 2m 4f or shorter as she
does so she is unlike any past winner either. None of the
87 winners were aged 10 or more and RIVER RIPPLES
fails that and has to come from 2m 4f or more so I dont
want him. I do wonder if PLEIN POUVOIR did enough
on his seasonal debut beaten 36 lengths just 18 days ago
and he surely isnt a certain stayer. FLACO isnt a negative
but I am happy to ignore him with 2 runs and coming via
a Novice Hurdle for Desert Orchid’s owner. My choice is
NOAKARAD DE VERZEE. Lightly raced. Unusual form
mixing Point to Points and Hunter Chases before he ran
well at Chepstow in a Handicap Chase. I think the issue
is whether he can win a 0-115 chase and the evidence of
his last run strongly suggests he can and I think he may
be very well handicapped and he could well outclass these.

SELECTION - NOAKARAD DE VERZEE

Now best priced 11/4 Ladbrokes, Hills, PaddyPower, Coral, VC

Posted under horse racing tips

***********

York 2.40

PERFECT SHOT  9/1

£25 Each Way

Blog Comment:
9/1 was available earlier for Full Members of my Private Betting Service
Best price now is 7/1  Coral, bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill

****************************************************

YORK 2.40

10% Cashback At Coral Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85)  2m2f

11/4 Theola, 9/2 Mykingdomforahorse, 6/1 Murcar
8/1 Danzatrice, 9/1 According To Pete, Perfect Shot
10/1 Mith Hill, 11/1 Mr Crystal, 14/1 Sphinx
20/1 King In Waiting, 20/1 Royal Entourage
25/1 Ruff Diamond, 40/1 Indian Pipe Dream, Daltaban.

* This is a Handicap over 18f for 0-83 rated horses
* October has seen around 97 handicaps like this over 16f-18f
* ROYAL ENTOURAGE wont stay
* He is also weak aged 4 and up from a 12f race
* Since 1994 4 year olds from 12f races were 0-67
* INDIAN PIPE DREAM shouldnt be fit enough
* Not aged 7 with 1 poor run since April
* He comes with far too much risk and should fail
* DALTABAN has been absent far too long
* None of the 97 winners were as old as SPHINX
* He is 11 years old and is underraced this year
* No horse aged 9 + won losing by as far as him last time
* He shouldnt be anywhere near his peak and is rejected
* Exposed horses losing by 10 + lengths last time struggled
* They had a poor 6-201 record
* When racing within 2 weeks they were 1-94
* MR CRYSTAL fails that
* Look at exposed male horses aged under 8
* When beaten 10 + lengths last time they were 1-112
* MR CRYSTAL fails that and wont be fit
* Not with 1 run since July
* ACCORDING TO PETE shouldnt be fit enough
* Not aged 8 and just 1 run since January 2009
* RUFF DIAMOND is hard to read from Novice Chases
* I think he has a poor profile and looks hard to fancy
* He also looks a very unlikely stayer
* KING IN WAITING has had plenty of problems
* He found some from last time out
* That was in a low grade and this is a much better race
* He is likely to be outclassed by something
* DANZATRICE is a 7 year old mare
* Only 1 Mare aged 6 or more managed to win
* Only 5 exposed mares won in the 96 races
* 4 of those had under 8st weight
* DANZATRICE has over a stone more than that
* I think you want a younger unexposed horse
* DANZATRICE wouldnt be my choice aged 7
* After all she is on a mark she has not won off before
* When racing above Class 5 she has a 0-19 record
* DANZATRICE needs a Career best to win this
* I think she will prove vulnerable to youngsters
* MITH HILL is an 8 year old
* He too is vulnerable to lighter raced horses
* He has a lot of weight for a horse aged 8
* He has a mind of his own and looks unsafe
* Not well handicapped and hard to trust
* MURCAR is 4 and comes from 14f
* Horses aged 4 coming from 14f or less didnt impress
* When having 9 + runs like him they were 2-69
* None had anywhere near the weight he has
* 4yo Males like MURCAR doing this were 1-49
* Can not rule him out but he’s unimpressive statistically

SHORTLIST

* MYKINGDOMFORAHORSE is a 3yo from a 14f race
* 3 Year old males doing that were fine
* Those with 9 + runs like him had a 3-21 record
* All 3 winners had ran in slightly better grade than him
* That said a recent run helps him
* THEOLA has a nice profile as a 3yo filly
* I have nothing strong against her
* I would have liked her to have ran 1-2 more times
* I would have liked a more recent run
* Other than that she has a good chance
* PERFECT SHOT has an excellent profile
* Unexposed 3 year old with form over 2m
* He looked to find the ground too fast last time
* As long as its not too firm he is a huge runner
* The ground at York looks far more suitable

SELECTION = PERFECT SHOT

****************************************************

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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Posted under horse racing tips

SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL

A snippet from my full service over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Not a race I am staking heavily in myself but its the big race of the day and I thought you would be interested in the analysis and research.

AYR 3.25 Coral SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL
HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

7/1 Chief Dan George, 8/1 Nine De Sivola, 8/1
Tricky Trickster, 10/1 West End Rocker, 12/1
Merigo, 12/1 That’s Rhythm, Gone To Lunch,
16/1 Hello Bud, 16/1 Out The Black, According
To John, 20/1 Brooklyn Brownie, 20/1 Chiaro,
20/1 Dear Villez, 20/1 King Barry, 20/1 Sound
Accord, 25/1 Coe, 33/1 L’Aventure, 33/1 Native
Coral, 33/1 Sea Diva, 40/1 Arteea, 50/1 Le Toscan.

SPLIT STAKE BET

DEAR VILLEZ 28/1
NINE DE SIVOLA  8/1

SAVER
Place Bet on
HELLO BUD 4/1

* The Scottish Grand National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992
* I have looked at 64 other races
* Since 1993 there has been 64 Handicap Chases
* Thats 64 races between Febuary and June
* Thats 64 races over distances of 3m 7f or more
* Thats 64 races in Class 2 or Higher Grade
* This includes several Nationals and the the Eider
* These 64 are the closest races to the Scottish National

The first thing I would do is ignore horses that ran
in the Grand National. You have to go back to 1987
for the last horse to win this race coming from the
Grand National. ARTEEA fails that. I would oppose
all older horses aged 11 or more with under 5 runs
this year. NATIVE Coral is out aged 11 with 3 runs
this year. No horse has won this race with under 3
runs this year so ACCORDING TO JOHN is out.

I think LE TOSCAN is up too far in trip. Preperation
is everything in Nationals and its interesting that
horses who Fell last time out or who Pulled Up had
a 0-109 record in this race. You want a horse coming
here confident and in form and I’d be wary of horses
coming here not finishing or falling intheir last race.
GONE TO LUNCH , COE and BROOKLYN BROWNIE
have it to overcome. This trend is supported in most
similar races and not just this one and a last time out
Fall is not a profile you want in this sort of race. Both
L´AVENTURE and SEA DIVA are out as mares from 4m.

NUMBER OF CHASE STARTS (1st 2nd 3rd)

2008 - 13  9  10
2007 - 10  11 16
2006 - 19  10 14
2005 -  6   5    5
2004 - 24  19  20
2003 - 21  10  16
2002 - 14  9   8
2001 - 14  8  11
2000 -  5  10 15
1999 -  9  18  27
1998 - 10 10 17

This table shows how many Chase starts the
winner - second - third  had in recent years.
There was a winner in 2000 with 5 Chase
starts but no horse had less than that and
THATS RHYTHM has only four runs. I’d be
against him because of that and also against
TRICKY TRICKSTER who also has just Four
chase runs. TRICKY TRICKSTER comes from
a Novice Chase and No past winner of this
race did that. I think this pair might Fail.

I am against the horses that come from ordinary
Novice Chases. SOUND ACCORD does that and
is out as is THATS RHYTHM whose had only 4
chase starts and comes from a Beginners chase.

Last year was the first year that the winner had
never ran in Graded Class before. That was a 66/1
winner and I would be much happier if my horse
had previously ran in Graded Class before. This
puts me of HELLO BAY who hasnt a typical sort
of preparation anyway running very recently in
a lower class handicap. The last 11 year old to win
was in 1996 and all 48 since then lost. I think he
is beatable but I do think the fact he ran 4 days
ago may work in his favour and I am inclined to
shortlist him at the price. KING BARRY also lacks
Grade 1 form and has a Career high mark. I have
to wonder if OUT THE BLACK has the class as he
is an 11 year old and has no Graded Class at all.

Horses aged 7 have the worst record in recent years
with a 1-40 record and whilst not a good statistic I
dont want CHICARO as an exposed 7 year old who
is down from 4m races. If you look at the 64 races
at this time of year No exposed 7 year old won any
of those races. WEST END ROCKER is also a 7 year
old. He comes from a Novice Chase which worries
me.  No past winner of this came from a Novice
Chase. In 64 other races only 1 horse managed
to do it. WEST END ROCKER  has just 5 chase runs
and is a 1st season chaser and has no Graded form
at all and I didnt want to be with him.

I dont have a problem with DEAR VILLEZ at all
and as he is unexposed I like his chance giving
weight to many Novice Chasers and inexperienced
horses that all have plenty to prove. Around 28/1
DEAR VILLEZ has been underestimated here

* CHIEF DAN GEORGE looks opposable
* He comes from a Novice Chase
* No past winner of this race did that
* In 64 other races only 1 managed it (1-34)
* That was Narrow Water in the 2001 Eider Chase
* He looks inexperienced with 5 chase starts
* He is a First season chaser
* I see this as a problem coming from a Novice race
* He’s a small horse which doesnt fill me with confidence
* The only time he ran in a chase at Ayr he flopped
* CHIEF DAN GEORGE wouldnt be my choice

* MERIGO won the Eider Chase last time out
* He is 8lbs higher in this race
* No past winner came from the Eider Chase
* MERIGO has no Graded form another problem
* He is a horse that will want the ground soft
* Overall his profile does have Flaws in it

SHORTLIST

DEAR VILLEZ 28/1
NINE DE SIVOLA  8/1
HELLO BUD  16/1

* NINE DE SIVOLA was 2nd in the 2007 renewal
* He had a 10lbs lower mark but it was a good run
* Not least after running 2nd in the Irish National
* He comes from the 4m Chase at Cheltenham
* Thats one race I am fine with as a trial
* Stormez was 2nd in that before coming 2nd here
* Old Benny was 4th in this having won that race last year
* NINE DE SIVOLA has been laid out all year for this
* HELLO BUD could be worth chancing
* A Win 4 days ago could work two ways
* Given so many have poor profiles I’ll risk him

SPLIT STAKE BET

DEAR VILLEZ 28/1
NINE DE SIVOLA  8/1

SAVER
Place Bet on
HELLO BUD 4/1

Guy

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Posted under Major Horse Races

 
CHELTENHAM  5.15
JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL CHASE CHALLENGE CUP
(HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m110y
 6/1 Poquelin, 8/1 French Opera, 10/1 Clew Bay Cove, 10/1 My Petra,
10/1 Oh Crick, 10/1 Pasco, 10/1 Tiger Cry, 14/1 I’m So Lucky,
14/1 Lorient Express, 14/1 Perce Rock, 20/1 Andreas, 20/1 Valain,
25/1 Calatagan, 25/1 Psychomodo, 33/1 Central House, 33/1 Moon
Over Miami, 40/1 Beggars Cap, 40/1 Palarshan, 40/1 Tramantano, 66/1 Jigsaw
* This is a 2m Handicap Chase
* There has been 15 renewals since 1993
* There has been 65 handicap chases at this meeting
* Thats 65 handicap chases at every distance
* Its been a long time since an exposed horse won this
* ANDREAS is exposed and has 11st 12lbs
* PALARSHAN is an 11 year old
* Only 7 horses aged 11 won handicaps at the festival
* None had 10st 6lbs or less (0-61)
* None were beaten as far as he was last time
* He looks way out of his depth
* BEGGARS CAP didnt do enough last time
* He looks outclassed in this
* CALATAGAN  is out aged 10 from hurdles
* No horse that age came from hurdles
* In this race horses from Hurdles were poor
* Those like him down in trip from hurdles were 0-50
* No exposed horse won any festival handicap with 11st 12lbs
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse was beaten in a novice or beginners chase and won
* JIGSAW DANCER was just hammered in a Novice Chase
* MOON OVER MIAMI also has that problem
* CENTRAL HOUSE looks too old
* TIGER CRY is a 11 year old absent 61 days
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse aged 11 or more won with a months absnece
* All 60 that tried lost
* With 2 runs since last April he may not be fit
* TIGER CRY looks opposable to me
* TIGER CRY did win this last year
* He had a far better profile though and was fitter
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* POQUELIN is a 6 year old absent 111 days
* I looked at English horses absent 7 weeks or more
* In all handicap chases run at this festival these types were poor
* No horse aged 7 or less managed it (0-43)
* No horse managed it from any kind of Novice race
* POQUELIN fails both those trends
* POQUELIN was also beaten in a Novice Chase last time
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse was beaten in a novice or beginners chase and won
* FRENCH OPERA fails the same angles
* He was beaten in a Novice Chase last time
* We know no Festival Handicap went to a horse doing that
* He is also absent 7 weeks or more
* Horses like him aged under 8 doing that were 0-43
* No horse like him from a Novice race defied that absence
* FRENCH OPERA looks opposable to me
* OH CRICK was also beaten in a Novice last time
* Again no horse won a Festival handicap doing that
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* MY PETRA is a 6 year old absent 71 days
* I looked at English horses absent 7 weeks or more
* In all handicap chases run at this festival these types were poor
* No horse aged 7 or less managed it (0-43)
* MY PETRA fails that and is rejeceted
* Every past winner ran in Graded Class before
* LORIENT EXPRESS has not done that
* He has had 36 races - Aged 10 - yet no Graded Class
* I looked at every Handicap Chase run at the Festival
* Horses aged 10+ with no past Graded form were 0-59
* That suggests to me LORIENT EXPRESS may lack class
POSSIBLES
* PSYCHOMODO isnt too bad statistically
* There are a lot worse profiles
* I dont personally think he will have the class
* He is not a 40/1 chance and is respected
* PERCE ROCK unseated his rider yesterday
* He would not have won and that was over 2m 5f
* I think trip and ground may catch him out
* He is certainly unsafe and has an outside chance
* PASCO is quite interesting as a Novice winner
* I would have prefered a little more than 3 chase runs
* The 2000 winner Samakaan managed it though
* Statistically he is shortlistable but there are worries
* His trainer has argued he wants softer ground
* He has also argued he may not like the track
* Ruby Walsh has also rejected him for Poquelin
* I find it hard to go with him because of that
* VALAIN is very hard to assess properly
* Not sure how relevant running on the flat recently is
* JP McManus owns him and CLEW BAY COVE
* Mc Coy rides CLEW BAY COVE
* I suspect thats because he cant do 10st 1lbs
* McCoy hasnt ridden below 10st 4lbs in the last year
* VALAIN may well be the stable preference
* It would trouble me he ran on the flat
* If he was fancied to win and prepared to perfection
* Why would he run on the flat just 2 weeks before
* As it was his first run since September it may be fitness
* Connections may have felt he wasnt fit
* That may be a rushed prearation
* VALAIN is a big price and that does help with worries
* Respect and Shortlist him but dont select him
* CLEW BAY COVE looks a bit exposed to me
* There has been winners like him but some time ago
* He has had 14 Handicap Chase runs so has no secrets
* You can also argue he may want softer ground
* I am not convinced about him to be honest
* TRAMANTANO looks unfancied at 40/1
* He was beaten 16 lengths in this race last year
* I tipped him in last years race at 25/1
* One or two early mistakes hurt his chance last year
* He is much Fresher this year and he needs that
* This horse is always best after an absence
* With 1 run since November he will be fresh enough
* He loves the track and I am betting him again
I’M SO LUCKY
* I’M SO LUCKY has a very smart profile
* I Looked at horses that had this profile like him
* Coming from a 2m Handicap chase in Class 2
* At least 9 runs and at least 3 that year
* Run within 7 weeks
* Starting 20/1 or shorter
* Has ran in Graded Class before
* Has won in their last 6 races
* Carrying less than 11st
* I’M SO LUCKY has that profile
* SO did 6 other horses that ran in this race before
* Those 6 horses had the following record
* W  W  W  2  3  5
* I’M SO LUCKY will love the drying ground
* He ran very well last time on ground too soft
* His previous race he was beaten by Planet Of Sound
* That horse was 3rd in Tuesdays Grade 1 Arkle
* I’M SO LUCKY had to give him 10lbs that day
* We now know that was an impossible task
* He won his previous 2 races easily
* Statistically he is strong as a lightly raced chaser
* He isnt over exposed in handicaps
* My only worry is will he handle the track
* He has a lot of flat track form
* Its a serious worry and I dont know the answer to it
Two Bets for me in this race
TRAMANTANO Each Way Bet at 40/1
I’M SO LUCKY Win Bet at 20/1

Posted under horse racing tips