For your info yesterday we advised a Full Bet to Members
to back EXMOOR RANGER & THE RAINBOW HUNTER
both each way at circa 25/1.

So first Full bet this week Lost. I suppose at the 25/1 prices
it couldn’t have been unexpected. I have never been one to
focus on short priced winners. At the end of a season you
don’t count winners you count profits. Planning to play in
a few Handicap Chases this week but yesterdays race
got the better of me and we ended up 1-0 down. Not
the result I expected. THE RAINBOW HUNTER did
not run badly for a while but didnt jump well enough
to keep in touch with them when they quickened and
faded. EXMOOR RANGER finished 6th with most bookies going 5 places
and it is hard to know if a slow start when detached and left behind
the field made any difference. Looked as if he may get
placed at one stage but neither ran well enough and we
got nothing back.

The full member message held its own for most
of the other races.
SPIRIT SON – REALT DUBH – SPARKY MAY and
GARDE CHAMPETRE all suggested each way
placed comfortably enough.

Onto Today

 

CHELTENHAM 1.30

140th Year of The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
(Amateur Riders? Novices? Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 4m

Forecast Odds

7/2 Alfa Beat, 5/1 Chicago Grey, 7/1 Beshabar, 7/1 Some Target
12/1 Aberdale, 12/1 Sona Sasta, 14/1 Arabella Boy, 14/1 Chamirey
20/1 Be There In Five, 20/1 Glenwood Knight, 20/1 Pearlysteps
25/1 Captain Americo, 25/1 Major Malarkey, 33/1 On His Own
40/1 Regal Approach, 50/1 Double Pride, 100/1 Carlas Dream.

* This is a 4m Novice Chase for Amateurs
* I would want at least 4 runs that season
* Only 1 of the last 17 winners had under 4 runs that year
* That was the 1998 winner who was different class
* The last 18 winners had the following races that year
* 4-5-5-4-4-4-5-8-5-6-2-7-7-6-5-10-4-4

* BESHABAR only has 2 runs this season
* That worries me especially as he is older than ideal
* His 3 Chase runs have hardly set pulses racing yet
* SONA SASTA also has just 2 runs this season
* Thats not enough for me as he’s just 2 Chase starts
* You really want at least 1 more chase runs
* I think that will catch him out
* Especially as most past winners had more backclass
* Most also had a more recent run
* SONA SASTA is rejected
* CARLAS DREAM looks outclassed
* DOUBLE PRIDE has a poor preparation
* PEARLYSTEPS is statistically not quite right
* I dont like horses aged 8 or more from 2m 6f or less
* They have a 1-31 record in this race
* That winner had 6 runs that season not 4 like him
* That winner won last time and had a recent race
* PEARLYSTEPS doesnt offer me enough
* I also feel here is a stamina doubt there
* His sire hasnt had a winner beyond 3m 4f yet
* REGAL APPROACH is 8 and comes from 2m 4f
* No winner had a similar profile and I dont like him
* ABERDALE is owned by Trevor Hemmings
* Both the owner and the sire have won this race before
* I thought he had only one problem a 112 day break
* He was due to run a few weeks ago but had a setback
* That could leave him short for this race
* 14 of the last 16 winners ran within 7 weeks
* He is not for me with a long absence
* CAPTAIN AMERICO is a 9yo with 13 + runs
* Not the best age but older horses can and do win
* What troubles me is they all had 9 + runs this year
* Only 2 horses aged 9 or more with 13 + runs won
* They had 9 and 10 races that season
* CAPTAIN AMERICO has only had 4 runs
* Not enough for a 9 year old with 13 + runs
* Horses aged 6 have a weak record in this race
* I would be very dubious about these horses
* MAJOR MALARKEY pulled up at Haydock last time
* I looked at horses from handicaps with 9 or more runs
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that year were 0-25
* Those that ran within a Month like him were 0-44
* None Pulled up of fell last time and none came from 27f +
* MAJOR MALARKEY doesnt have a great preparation
* ON HIS OWN looks too inexperienced with 2 runs
* Short of runs this year I’d ignore him
* BE THERE IN FIVE won 11 days ago
* Horses with recent runs have struggled in this race
* I’d have prefered at least 1 more run this season
* I also feel there is a genuine stamina doubt

SHORTLIST

* ALFA BEAT was a big gamble last week
* His problem is he has not ran in 182 days
* We know 14 of the last 16 winners ran within 7 weeks
* Neither of the ones that didnt were as exposed as him
* With 11 Chase starts he has had more than ideal
* He doesnt leap off the page to me with that absence
* He comes here  with a W W W W W record
* Soemone clearly thinks he has improved again
* Surely 9/2 is short enough anyway with his absence

* CHICAGO GREY is having his 10th Chase start
* Happy with his general exposure
* It worries me he has had 9 runs since last July
* Thats a long time on the go for a race like this
* The winner in 1993 had 10 runs that season
* There are a few little niggles I have with him
* No past winners came from a Grade 1 race like him
* His Sire hasn’t had a 4m winner yet
* May mean nothing but you do need a stayer here
* He had the speed to win a 2m race over hurdles last year.
* I see his absence of 78 days one of his big problems.
* Only 2 of the last 16 winners were absent 7 + weeks
* Both were lighter raced than he is
*  I see him more as Neutral than negative

* CHAMIREY has quite a good profile
* I would have to make him a positive
* I do have some reservations with him
* I can’t match him as closely as I’d like
* He has made mistakes in all 4 of his Chases
* He wont get away with that here
* I also wonder if he will stay 4 Miles here
* His sire’s had a 3m 7f winner (Laddoudal)
* None have won at 4 miles yet

FAVOURED SELECTIONS

* ARABELLA BOY is a 6 year old
* I wonder if he will stay 4 Miles
* His Sire has a 1-48 record with runners at 3m 3f +
* He has sired a Midland Grand National winner (4m1f)
* Thats takes a lot of the doubt away
* Only 1 from 48 over 3m 3f isnt impressive though
* I dont mind the 6yo statistic too much
* Only 1 have won but that doesnt tell the true story
* Many were massive prices and not fancied
* Many more have finished 2nd and 3rd in the race
* He has a recent run and is one of the fittest horses
* ARABELLA BOY has experience on his side

* SOME TARGET has just won at 3m 4f on soft ground
* He is the right age and has the right exposure
* He also has a more recent run than several here
* His right handed track form doesnt worry me
* Plenty of handicappers have won this race
* He does look a solid option to me

I’d Suggest a Split Stake Bet

SOME TARGET 7/1 – Half your stake to win
7/1 At Several spots inc Tote Paddy Power Ladbrokes

ARABELLA BOY  – Half your stake each way
You can get 11/1 Sporting Bet paying 4 places

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Thanks for those of you who emailed to say thanks for a bit of extra winnings last week.  Not the full cigar but 9/1 each way returned a bit of profit.

I had a couple of requests to have a look at the Racing Post Chase this week on the free blog.

It’s one of the extra races I looked at for full members so here are my quick thoughts on it.

KEMPTON 3.00

Racing Post Chase Handicap Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m

5/1 Fistral Beach, 5/1 Nacarat, 6/1 Quinz, 8/1 Bakbenscher
9/1 Mostly Bob, 10/1 Sagalyrique, 12/1 Hey Big Spender
12/1 Tatenen, 14/1 Razor Royale, 16/1 Polyfast
20/1 Crescent Island, 20/1 Door Boy, 20/1 Ringaroses
25/1 Piraya, 33/1 Safari Adventures, 40/1 Free World
40/1 Mount Oscar.

* The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3m
* There has been 16 renewals of this race.
* Febuary and March have seen 136 Handicap Chases
* Thats 136 Handicap Chases at 3m in Class 2 or higher
* FISTRAL BEACH doesnt offer enough for me
* Not keen he has just 1 run this season
* No past winner of this race had 1 run that season
* In 136 of these races I looked at those with 1 run this year
* When coming from 22f or shorter there were 3 winners
* Those with 7 or more career starts were just 1-35
* That winner had less weight and a more recent run
* CRESCENT ISLAND has the same problems to overcome
* RINGAROSES is wrong with 1 run this season
* None of the 136 winners came from 18f or shorter
* All 32 lost and FREE WORLD fails that
* QUINZ comes from a Novice Chase
* No winner of this race came from an ordinary Novice Chase
* Horses doing that in 136 other races had a 3-59 record
* None were aged 7 like QUINZ (0-14)
* None had as much weight as he does either
* Horses beaten in a Novice Chase last time were 0-24
* QUINZ also fails that and doesnt come out well enough
* MOUNT OSCAR is out up in trip aged 12
* SAFARI ADVENTURES is exposed and up in trip
* He lacks the backclass to overcome that
* PIRAYA is exposed up in trip with 1-2-3 runs this season
* Similar horses had a 1-51 record
* That winner had more backclass than PIRAYA
* He also flopped in last years race and wants a small field
* RAZOR ROYALE won this race last year
* This year he has a much inferior preparation
* He is exposed this year and has far fewer prep runs
* He also has a nasty absence which doesnt help him
* I dont see him bouncing back to form with his profile
* MOSTLY BOB comes from a Novice Handicap Chase
* He only has 9 career National Hunt Starts
* Horses from Novice Handicaps with under 13 runs are 0-14
* MOSTLY BOB fails that and looks wrong to me
* I looked at all 8 year olds from Novice Handicap Chases
* I found only 1 winner and he had far more backclass
* MOSTLY BOB only has 3 career Chase starts
* Thats very inexperienced and he fell in one of those chases
* The 16 winners of this race had the following Chase starts
* 9 6 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 13
* The lightest raced chaser to win this Gloria Victus (2000)
* He had 5 runs which is far more experienced than he is
* MOSTLY BOB doesnt look right with 3 runs from handicaps
* DOOR BOY doesnt appeal much to me
* Well beaten on all  starts this year
* I couldnt find a winner like him in the 136 races
* His lack of form this year makes him vulnerable
* POLYFAST is 8 and won a Handicap Chase last time
* That was over 2m 5f and there are 4 similar winners
* They all had a more recent run than him
* They all had more backclass as well
* POLYFAST hasnt been out of Listed Class yet
* 3 or the 4 similar winners had Grade 1 form before
* They all came from higher in the weights as well
* His form over this far raises stamina doubts too
* Statistically he doesnt make the grade for me
* SAGALYRIQUE is 7 and comes from 2m 4f or shorter
* I found 1 similar winner doing that
* He did have a bit more backclass than he does
* The issue with SAGALYRIQUE is if he has the class
* My best guess is that he wont
* The overnight rain wont have helped him either
* With Blinkers and a Tongue Strap he doesnt feel like the one

POSSIBLES

NACARAT – BAKBENSCHER
HEY BIG SPENDER – TATENEN

* NACARAT doesnt have a major statistical problem
* The 2004 winner (Malborough) had a very similar profile
* His stable is out of form though
* HEY BIG SPENDER is 8 and won a 21f handicap last time
* I found 3 similar winners with that profile
* They all had Grade 1 form and a high weight and recent run
* HEY BIG SPENDER also fits that profile
* The 2001 and 1999 winners of this race had that profile
*  HEY BIG SPENDER has a good profile for me
* One doubt is whether he can recover from his last race
* Only 14 days ago it would be a small concern
* No horse won this from 2m 5f in the past fortnight
* The other is whether a right handed flat track suits
* All his best form came away from tighter tracks
* It was tight at Warwick last time but not right handed
* TATENEN is 7 and won a 22f handicap last time
* I found 1 similar winner in the 136 races
* TATENEN has to prove he stays 3 Miles today
* His 4 runs at 3m and more have been bad defeats
* He was not fancied in 3 of those 4 runs
* Wrong to assume he doesnt stay based on that record
* His trainer is on record as being unsure if he stays 3m
* Shortlistable on his profile his biggest issue is stamina
* BAKBENSCHER is hard to read from a Graduation Chase
* Plenty to like about his profile
* Not least a good recent win and strong form right handed
* Statistically he is hard to assess because of his last run
* The Positives far outweight the doubts for me

SELECTION

All 4 have at least one concern as mentioned above. I see
TATENEN placing but perhaps not staying well enough to
win. NACARAT is respected and looks saver material with
topweight. The last four winners were 8 year olds and that
and a recent run steers me towards  BAKBENSCHER

BAKBENSCHER Win Bet     9/1  at bet365 and VC

( Nacarat – Optional Saver)

Posted under horse racing tips

CHEPSTOW 1.45

Coral Welsh National Handicap Chase
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m5f110y

4/1 Synchronised, 6/1 Maktu, 8/1 Dance Island
10/1 Watamu Bay, 14/1 Arbor Supreme, 14/1 Dream Alliance
14/1 Exmoor Ranger, 14/1 Giles Cross, 14/1 Silver By Nature
16/1 Ballyfoy, 20/1 Ballyfitz, 20/1 I´moncloudnine
25/1 Old Benny, 25/1 Royal Rosa, 33/1 Bench Warrent
33/1 Theatre Dance, 40/1 Dashing George, 40/1 Flight Leader
40/1 Magic Sky, 50/1 Eric´s Charm.

The Welsh National is a Handicap Chase over an extended
3m 5f. Usually run in December the race has been moved to
January after the recent cold weather.
That leaves a dilemma about whether to rely on statistics for this
and all other races  when they have been run in December and
especially when all  horses are a year older once we get to January.
In the end the best plan for me was to look at all similar races over 3 months

* December – January – Febuary have 65 Handicap Chases
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases between 3m 5f and 4m
* Thats 65 of these races in Class 2 – Listed – Grade 3

There are several of these that look quite simple to eliminate from consideration.
ERIC´S CHARM and ROYAL ROSA do not appeal and look too old with no
winners aged 11 or more since 1976. FLIGHT LEADER – MAGIC Sky are also passed
over as too old. DASHING GEORGE has completely a wrong
preparation. BENCH WARRENT didnt do much last time and
I wasnt sure he will stay in the ground. All his sires wins over a distance like this in
the class are on firm ground and he looks unsafe to me. OLD BENNY looks on the
road to Cheltenham and probably wont be fit here. I looked at all 10 year olds
that ran in these races with 1 run that season. The only horses that won with the
profile were last time out winners. He was beaten too far and it may be the
same as last years race when he was beaten miles after 1 poor run last year.
BALLYFOY is facing a similar problem as a 10yo with 1 run this year and he
doesnt have much backclass. I’d question his stamina. I’d question his suitability to the track too.
THEATRE DANCE may struggle  coming from 2m5f and he has not achieved much this season.
ARBOR SUPREME may pop up but I dislike his profile as an  exposed horse and beaten easily
on his only run this year. He  looks badly handicapped to me and may be on the road back
to the Grand National. The problem with GILES CROSS apart  from Stamina and a
testing absence is his last run.
Very few  winners managed to win these sort of races without finishing last time and I felt he was unsafe.

* SYNCHRONISED doesnt convince me completely
* My argument is his weight and his class
* He has 11st 6lbs and No form in Graded races before
* I looked at horses with no previous runs in Graded races
* Those that had 11st or more had a 0-29 record
* Almost all past winners of the race had GradedForm before
* 13 of the last 14 winners had no more than 11st weight
* He has to overcome that weight stat without graded form
* SYNCHRONISED has a stiff task for me with his weight
* SILVER BY NATURE was 2nd in last years race
* He had 10st 2lbs last year yet has 11st 12lbs this year
* Thats a massive jump considering he’s run just twice since
* SILVER BY NATURE fails a lot of angles
* He has a horrible weight with 11st 12lbs
* He ran badly last time out as well
* Exposed with 1 run this year he looks wrong to me
* All these are serious problems for an exposed horse
* DREAM ALLIANCE won this last year with 10st 8lbs
* This year he has a crippling weight of 11st 12lbs
* He is not in the same form as he was last year
* He fails multiple angles including a poor last run
* I think its too much of an ask to win again
* WATAMU BAY is very inexperienced with 3 chase runs
* Going back to 1990 the winners had these Chase runs
* 10-9-4-4-16-7-24-8-14-17-8-13-22-12-12-9-14-18
* WATAMU BAY will be the least experience winner in ages
* WATAMU BAY also comes from a Novice Chase
* Only 1 of the 65 winners managed that
* That horse was older and had more experience
* He also won within 2 weeks and had a stone less weight
* 11st 3lbs is a tough ask for a Novice Chaser
* Dont forget 13 of the last 14 winners had 11st or less
* I don’t like his chance when inexperienced with weight

There is a case statistically for I´MONCLOUDNINE. The
big problem is Chepstow is a track he has never experienced
before. It would worry me his wins are on sharp flat tracks and most
were right handed too.  I´MONCLOUDNINE also suffers from a lack of backclass.
Almost all past winners of the race  had Graded Form before and none with
13 or more runs failed  to have form in a Graded race before.
I nearly shortlisted him but I couldnt get past the Track suitability.
What swung it was the half brother who only won right handed on fast tracks.

SHORTLIST

EXMOOR RANGER – DANCE ISLAND
MAKTU  -BALLYFITZ

* DANCE ISLAND has 4 Chase starts
* There were 2 recent winners with only 4 chase runs
* Statistically I can turn a blind eye to some of his problems
* I can not match him exactly to any of the 65 winners
* Partly as he has an absence but so do many
* Partly  as he is 8 and comes from 3m or shorter
* I don’t feel he has a bad profile just not a good or safe one
* I would have to question whether he will stay this far
* I think there is a serious stamina doubt in this class

* EXMOOR RANGER has a good profile
* You would be worried about stamina on this ground
* I dont see him getting home on this ground
* Noy with a tough weight and a stiff handicap mark

* MAKTU has a decent chance with strong track form
* Ground – Consistency and a decent weight all in his favour
* I would have liked more backclass
* He is unexposed over fences though
* He has never been out of the 1-2-3-4 in all 8 chase starts

BALLYFITZ is technically too old as an 11 year old but as
he wouldnt have been last week it seems we should overlook
that.I ran his profile in all the 65 other races.
There were 3  winners aged 11 that had 1-2 runs that season like him.
None of them were as absent as long as he is but we have to overlook
that when so many others have absences because of the harsh winter.
BALLYFITZ ran well in this race last year.
I felt he’d been overprepared last year.
He had a hard race in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham and then took in the
Hennessy as well. That was more than enough but he then went and won over
hurdles at Sandown as well and this may have been too much for him.
This year he has been far better prepared and now he gets to race off a 10lbs lower mark.
That will be a serious help as will a better preparation and he has only has 12 starts over fences.
I’m overlooking his age as he would have been a
10 year old last week and this is a career low mark for him in a Chase.
His run last year suggests he should at least place.
I feel the best option is to bet both horses in a split stake bet.

SELECTION

MAKTU – Win Bet 13/2  ( now 6/1 Coral  bet365 BoyleSports )

BALLYFITZ – Win Bet 16/1 + bet365  BoyleSports  William Hill

Posted under Major Horse Races

If you like a Grand National horse don’t let me or my angles talk you out of it.
I don’t feel this is an easy race this year and I’m hopeful rather than confident.
You get just the one chance a year to bet the winner so don’t let me cost you the winner.

My Grand National selection (s) are these

HELLO BUD 50/1
NICHE MARKET 22/1

AINTREE 4.15

John Smith´s Grand National Chase
(Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (6yo+)  4m4f

Forecast Odds

9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 12/1 Mon Mome, 12/1 The Package
16/1 Arbor Supreme, 16/1 Black Apalachi, 16/1 Character Building 16/1 Niche Market,
16/1 Snowy Morning, 16/1 State Of Play 16/1 Tricky Trickster, 20/1 Backstage,
20/1 Comply Or Die 20/1 Don´t Push It, 25/1 Vic Venturi, 28/1 Irish Raptor 28/1
King Johns Castle, 33/1 Ballyholland, 33/1 Can´t Buy Time 33/1 Maljimar, 33/1 My Will,
40/1 Cloudy Lane, Dream Alliance 40/1 Eric´s Charm, 40/1 Hello Bud, 50/1 Ballyfitz, 50/1
Cerium 50/1 Madison Du Berlais, 66/1 Flintoff, Nozic, Palypso De Creek 66/1 Royal Rosa,
100/1 Beat The Boys, 100/1 Conna Castle 100/1 Ellerslie George, 100/1 Joe Lively,
100/1 Ollie Magern 100/1 Piraya, 100/1 Preists Leap, 150/1 Made In Taipan 150/1 Pablo Du Charmil.

The Grand National is never easy but never as hard as
is often portrayed and not everything can win the race
as the old cliche goes. The ground could play a bigger
part this year as its drying out.
I think this years race has an unusual frame to it with no horses carrying less than 10st 5lbs
and 19 runners having 11st or more.
The stats that suggest horses don’t win with over 11st has never been more vulnerable as it is this year.

Not planning to have a huge preview of the race but very keen to get it right this year and I’m turning a blind eye to some stats.

My favourite Grand National statistic that applies to all
similar races in the first half of the year is as follows.

* Since 1992 there has been 65 Handicaps
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases over 3m 7f or more
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases with at least 12 runners
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases in Class 2 or Higher Grade
* This includes the last 16 Grand Nationals
* It includes the Scottish , Irish and Midlands Nationals
* Exposed horses struggle with under 5 runs that season
* They have a 2-337 record in these races
* They were 0-144 in this race
* In all races at 4m and more they were just 1-293

I would strongly avoid all horses that are exposed and
lightly raced this season with under 5 runs. This is why
I would make the following horses negatives.

Madison Du Berlais – Black Apalachi – Don’t Push It
Comply Or Die – Dream Alliance – Character Building
Pablo Du Charmil – State of Play – Cloudy Lane – My Will
Eric’s Charm – King Johns Castle -  Maljimar – Irish Raptor -Flintoff- Cerium – Royal Rosa. NOZIC is also short of runs.

It is a well known fact that the last 7 year old winner of
this race was back in 1940 and I couldnt have any horse
that age. In addition to those already opposed above I
would add TRICKY TRICKSTER who is actually only 6
years and 10 months old foaled in June 2003. Others aged
7 to be rejected are THE PACKAGE who has fewer races
over fences than all recent winners. PALYPSO DE CREEK
and PIRAYA are both out as 7 year olds.

* Since 1992 there has been 65 Handicaps
* Thats 65 Handicap Chases over 3m 7f or more

If you look my sample size of 65 races discussed earlier that covers every similar race to this as well
as this one they also show that you have to have been at least 1st  2nd or 3rd in a recent race.
In fact All 65 winners had managed to be placed 1-2-3 in their last six runs.
This should rule out all the out of form horses in the doldrums showing no recent promise.
It’s a trend  PREISTS LEAP fails. BIG FELLA THANKS deserves  massive credit for
finishing 6th last year as a 7 year old. This year he is 8 although not quite 8 for a
few more weeks yet as he was foaled late. I don’t like that about him. I hate the fact
he has just 3 runs this year and did not finish in one of those races.
I think coming from 2m 4f also hurts a horse as young as him and he has far too many
holes in his profile at a short enough price. CAN´T BUY TIME has a similar problem
age 8 and having to step up from 2m 4f with just 3 runs this season.
I can not find any similar horse winning in the 65 races.
The record of certain horses coming from 2m 4f or shorter is awful. MADE IN TAIPAN makes no appeal doing this. Neither does
BALLYHOLLAND coming from a 17f Chase and opposed for
that reason and because he has not won over 3 Miles before
something every winner since 1988 had done. BACKSTAGE
is also 8 years old and up from a 2m 4f race and I couldn’t get a similar winner to
him and he looks on the inexperienced side as well. CONNA CASTLE is out
exposed and up significantly in distance. Exposed horses that come from chases
over 2m 6f or shorter had a 0-66 record in the 69 races.
Thats one of the reasons why I am not convinced about  SNOWY MORNING.
OLLIE MAGERN looks wrong and impossible to fancy.
I feel JOE LIVELY has far too much weight for an exposed 11yo.
It’s  unheard of for an exposed horse like ELLERSLIE GEORGE  to  win without
Graded form. BEAT THE BOYS fails many angles. BALLYFITZ doesnt have a bad profile
although he doesn’t  jump well enough and I would not be confident he would get  round.
I hate the fact he has only won Novice Chases and he also comes from a hurdle race.

POSSIBLES

VIC VENTURA has to be considered. I think he has quite a
stiff handicap mark courtesy of being so consistent. I think  his rating and handicap mark hurt him.
Statistically having won 3 races this season he wouldn’t be like many winners  and coming from a
small field graded chase doesnt impress  me. My gut feeling is that although interesting in terms of
class and his 5-6 runs this season the price he is paying for 3 wins this season may be too high
and his weight may just  be the undoing of him.

ARBOUR SUPREME has factors I don’t like. If you look at
the 65 similar races that include the last 16 renewals of this race. Horses with 13 + career starts
absent over a month like ARBOUR SUPREME won 18 of the 65 races.
Those under 10 years old were 6-174. ARBOUR SUPREME is only aged
8 and that 6-174 record applies to all horses under 10.
Those without form in Grade 1 races like him were just 1-89.
None of them came from short of 3 Miles as he does.
He’s not the best age. Having 4 runs this year is no advantage.
Neither is stepping up from 2m 6f.
Combine all those factors and as a horse with no Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
I think a combination of all of them might prove too much for him.

MON MOME won this by 12 lengths last year carrying 11st.
He has 11st 7lbs this year. His weight was always going to
be his big problem. That said he’d have won the race last year with 7lbs
more weight and many past winners were clobbered more than he has been.
In a year I personally wouldnt listen to negative weight statistics much I’d give
him a better chance than many and I would have him as 3rd-4th-5th pick in the race.

SHORTLIST

NICHE MARKET -  HELLO BUD

I don’t much like exposed 12 year olds like HELLO BUD but
what few winners there were like her had similar credentials to him and I can ot rule him out at 50/1.
NICHE MARKET  has a good profile. He prepped really well at Cheltenham when he was wrong statistically.
I would have liked more wins and some form left handed but he has a fair chance.

SELECTION

NICHE MARKET 25/1
HELLO BUD 50/1

Blog comment : prices dropped a touch from the above which was given to full members earlier

Hello Bud now 40/1 Coral VC Ladbrokes CanBet or 48/1 Betfair

Niche Market now 20/1 sjames VC bet365  or 23/1 Betfair

Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham Horse Racing Bet

CHELTENHAM 2.35

9/4 Carruthers, 5/2 Madison Du Berlais, 3/1 Inchidaly Rock, 12/1 Joe Lively, 12/1 Taranis, 20/1 Ollie Magern, 33/1 Knowhere.

The Argento chase is a Grade 2 chase over 25f. The history
of this race demands a horse that has ran in a Grade 1 race
or a Grade 2 at the very least. All past winners did that and 9 out of 10 had Grade 1 before.
They also show you want a penalised horse as well which means in this race carrying more
than 11st. Therefore I am ignoring TARANIS with a massive absence.
OLLIE MAGERN is out unpenalised and
older than any past winner. INCHIDALY ROCK does not
appeal as he has no Graded form and none of the winners
came from a Novice Chase like him. Last year JOE LIVELY
won this but he was in much better form then and I couldnt
trust him  aged 11 with an inferior preperation. KNOWHERE
is too old. I dont fancy any of the above. This is between
MADISON DU BERLAIS – CARRUTHERS. What bothers
me about CARRUTHERS is past winners came from Listed
or a graded Chases and he comes from a Graduation Chase
and has fewer chase starts than every other past winner.
MADISON DU BERLAIS  has a solid profile and comes
from the best trial race the King George at Kempton. Its
pretty cleat he is best on a Flatter track but he has placed here at the Cheltenham Festival
and does have some form here. I am going with CARRUTHERS as he loves smaller
fields and has a great record in them.

Selection – CARRUTHERS

Was best priced 9/4 earlier today when I sent this out to full members.

Has shortened up a  touch since then.
19/10 CanBet   ( a bookmaker who run an interesting bonus of giving you
a percentage of any losses abck at the end of each month )

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips