Cheltenham – Arkle RSA Chase and Gold Cup

Today I am just quickly posting up a quick copy and paste
extract from our more comprehensive full member
message today. This is from the Future Betting Angles
message subsection.

This FBA section is a little regular extra for members
here that comes in addition to the daily racing analysis.
As the name implies this bit is focused on future
ante post racing.
Several Cheltenham Festival races get a mention.

Guy here is also doing a lot of Grand National
profiling research at the minute for full members
but I ducked posting that here as it makes less sense
to see just one day of it in isolation.

========================================================






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


The Saturday and Sundays cards
Look ridiculously vibrant + classy

I made the point the other day
The midweek cards are rubbish
The quality pushed to Saturday
It comes at you so thick and fast
Leaving little time to consider it
That is designed and deliberate

If you look at Oddschecker site
And the Ante Post Racing page
The markets open this weekend
This simply makes your jaw drop

Some of the weekend meetings
Will be dependent on the weather
Leopardstown has a 2 day fixture
Top class full of Cheltenham horses
This meeting is far from being safe
They have a foul weather forecast

Many horses running this weekend
Are having final Cheltenham preps

Buveau D'Air should be one of them
He will be long odds on at Sandown
But that meeting could be in doubt
If we lose meetings at the weekend
Many horses just like Buveau D'Air
Will miss their Cheltenham prep runs




Cheltenham Festival

Tomorrow entries are published
On the following Festival races

Supreme Novice Hurdle - 99 entered
Ballymore Novice Hurdle -139 entered
Triumph Hurdle - 59 entered
Albert Bartlet - 107 entered


Pricewise

Recently previews some races
These are their idea of the best bets

Rsa Chase
Topofthegame
1pt win at 8-1

Arkle Chase
Le Richebourg
1pt win at 7-1


The last time I did the Arkle Chase
LE RICHEBOURG was my provisional selection
I would agree with Pricewise here


RSA Chase

3/1Santini 9/2 Delta Work 7/1 Topofthegame
14/1 Vindication 16/1 OKCorral 20/1 On The Blind Side
25/1 Mortal 25/1 Champagne Classic

Paul Kealy in the Racing Post Weekender
Has also covered this race this week
Like Pricewise he selects Topofthegame

TOP OF THE GAME may look obvious
Has a chance but I still prefer others

There are now 41 days to Cheltenham
TOP OF THE GAME has not won a chase
He has failed in all 3 of his chases so far
So unless he runs quickly and he wins
Then he will be a maiden over fences

If as expected he does not run
Then he faces another problem
TOP OF THE GAME has 2 runs this season

Look at the last 19 renewals
18 of the previous 19 winners
Had at least 3 runs this season
TOP OF THE GAME does not match this

SANTINI has the same problem
DELTA WORK has 3 runs this season
Although as a 6yo he is not the best age

Assuming none of these will run again
The decision may be a statistical trade off
Will DELTA ROCKS extra run this season
Compensate for him being a 6yo
When his two market rivals
Santini and Top Of The Game
Have raced just twice this season
When just 1 of the last 9 winners did so
There could be other options available
The last time I looked at this race
I liked SANTINI and DELTA WORK best
Would be happy to bet both as a pair
In two each way doubles with something



Cheltenham Gold Cup

Stuart Riley in The Racing Post
Did a piece recent about Native River

His argument
Native River is not a likely winner
As Gold Cup winners don't win again
He says the last to do it Best Mate 2002
He states just 4 managed this in 50 years
There is some merit in what he says

NATIVE RIVER is around 13/2 on Betfair
I have already backed him as a saver bet
I'm happy with that position right now
Have the option to upgraded him to a bet
Have the option to choose something else

Unless the ground is really soft
I probably will choose something else
Although "Good Ground" is unlikely
It could happen if it dries out that week
He has never won a chase outside soft

There just feels like this is a year
Where we could get quite a big field
There are a lot of improvers in there
NATIVE RIVERS win in the 2018 Gold Cup
Was a slog on very bad ground
If conditions are different this year
He may find some have overtaken him

The Previous 22 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

12 9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

NATIVE RIVER has 15 Chase runs

21 of the last 23 Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs
So he will not be the snuggest fit

Staying with last years race

ROAD TO RESPECT was 4th

I gave him every chance in 2018
But did not select him  for 1 reason
I was concerned about his stamina
He was beaten 12 lengths on soft

If the ground is faster this season
I could easily go with him this year

I have read a few arguments for him
People that I quietly follow on twitter
That I think can teach me something
One person I follow is all over him

There is 1 complication

ROAD TO RESPECT runs Sunday
Favourite for the Irish Gold Cup
We don't know if the meeting will be on
If it is and he wins he will half in price
If it is and he loses he will appeal less

Right now he's certainly on my shortlist



Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 31, 2019

Tags: , , ,

Cheltenham Festival Ryanair Chase

Cheltenham Festival   
  
March 14th

Ryanair Chase


Looking at the Ryanair Chase today
Impossible to have an outright selection
I am just shortlisting the ideal types.

Current Rough Ante Post Odds
7/1 Waiting Patiently 7/1 Min 10/1 Top Notch
12/1 Monalee 16/1 Politologue 16/1 Un De Sceaux
18/1 Fox Norton 18/1 Aso 20/1 Balko Des Flos 
20/1 Tout Est Permis 22/1 Frodon 22/1 Footpad 
25/1 Charbel  33/1 Al Boum Photo 33/1 Coney Island  
40/1 Kemboy
  
Grade 1 Chase over 2m 4.5f
14 renewals of this race 
Upgraded to a Grade 1 in 2008

The is an Ante Post nightmare 
Never know which horses will run
Most of them have alternative races

Betfair have 16 horses
that are under 40/1 right now
So trying to filter through a few

Number of Chase runs

21 Frodon
19 Un De Sceaux 
18 Aso
18 Fox Norton 
15 Balko Des Flos 
14 Politologue
12 Top Notch
11 Charbel 
11 Tout Est Permis
9 Min
8  Kemboy
7 Coney Island  
7 Waiting Patiently 
7 Al Boum Photo
7  Footpad  
7 Monalee

 
The last 7 winners

Had 10 11 6 9 7 8 8  Chase runs 
They all had 7-11 previous chases
That would be the ideal mixture

Horses with 12 or more Chases
Have a 0-32 record since 2011

They won a couple before that
But recent years have struggled

FRODON with 21 Chase runs
Is the most exposed of the main runners
That would put me off his chance
He's never performed in the Spring

UN DE SCEAUX is 11 years old
No horse that age has won this race
2 years older than his biggest rivals
With 19 Chase runs looks vulnerable
ASO is exposed with 18 Chases
Well beaten in the race before
FOX NORTON has 18 Chase runs
Not the best age or exposure level
 
BALKO DES FLOS has 15 chases
Thats 4 more than the last 7 winners
He did win the race last year
And his owners sponsor the race
So it is far too early to rule him out
But he is not like recent winners now

POLITOLOGUE has 14 chase runs
Thats more than recent winners
Never seems to deliver at the festival
Unplaced on all 4 Cheltenham runs
He lacks enough positives for me

Some of these look unlikely runners
FOOTPAD may run in the Queen Mother
KEMBOY may run in the Gold Cup
 
TOUT EST PERMIS is only a 6yo
Only 1 horse his age has won this
That was before it was a Grade 1
He is far more exposed than he was

All 14 past winners 
Had 2-3-4 runs that season 
That seems quite significant
CHARBEL has more runs this year
On the go since last September
That is not like any past winner
Not bred like a Ryanair winner

WAITING PATIENTLY has had hold ups
So far he has raced once this season
He only got as far as 9 fences that day
I would want 2-3-4 runs this season
Every past winner had that
He is a long way from that right now
Could and needs to run this Saturday
That will help so asses him after that
But with 1 run and just 9 fences this year
He may look undercooked in March

Shortlist

CONEY ISLAND has 7 chase runs
That gets him on the shortlist
But he has no Cheltenham form
And is well behind on the ratings

AL BOUM PHOTO has 7 runs
Puts him in a good place statistically
Heed another run this season
That will probably come at the weekend
Obvious danger is running elsewhere

TOP NOTCH has 12 chase runs
I'd forgive him just 1 more than ideal
He is obviously a high class horse
Should get the small field he wants
The smaller the better as he is undersized
Could be the one but not problem free
Past 8yo winners were less exposed

MONALEE has 7 chase runs
That is ideal and he is a positive
He could also run this weekend

MIN has 9 Chase starts
I have to see him as a positive
But he has other options elsewhere
He could run in the Queen Mother
At the moment just 1 run this year
Having 1 run would rule him out 
But he is likely to run on Saturday 






Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 23, 2019

Tags: , ,

Cheltenham Festival Novice Handicap Chase Stat

Cheltenham Festival

Novice Handicap Chase Stat

Today I want to give you a statistic to bear in mind

for next week’s Handicap Chases. That’s any and

every Handicap Chase except the Novice Handicap.

I have examined all Handicap Chases run in the

last 15 years and more. Because it involves every

handicap it’s a solid trend.

 

* All Handicap Chases at the Cheltenham Festival

* I looked at horses from a Novice Handicap Chase

* All 19 that tried to do this Lost with these results

* 4 6 8 F PU 10 PU 12 7 9 13 F 13 7 PU PU 12 14 8

* None of the 19 horses Placed 1-2-3 in these races

Many people think you want a lightly raced chaser

thats improving from Novice Company and there is

no problem at all with that sort of horse. However

whilst many festival handicap chases are won by

horses that come from Novice Chases there hasn’t

yet been one that has been won by a horse that is

coming from a Novice Handicap. Admittedly only

19 of these tried but they all finished 4th or worse.

 

 

Cheltenham Deal Now Live

I have had many emails this week asking if and when our Cheltenham
deal would go live.

Today is the day

See www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

Key Points:

  • You get a heavily discounted first month of full membership
    here
  • Arguably the most in depth Cheltenham Analysis around.
  • Your month will also include the major Grand National
    Festival at Aintree
  • Rock solid Guarantee. Decide AFTER Cheltenham if we provided
    you top class value or not.

 

 

Should I join Now or just before Cheltenham?

I would say right now. You get immediate access to full service
membership.

There will be a fair bit of action this weekend to look forward
to with the likes of the Imperial Cup and Sandown to get stuck
into.

A few days of feet finding as a member will do you no harm
before Cheltenham starts on Tuesday.

Here is that secret cheap deal link again

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

PS I will back tomorrow with further free Cheltenham nuggets
of info.

Not quite sure what with yet but it might be a look at an
individual Cheltenham race from a stats and trends point of
view.

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chases

2013 Cheltenham Festival Countdown

We are ready for the Cheltenham Festival. The ground

work has all been done and the highlight of the season

will soon be upon us.

 

This is the start of a series of free warm up messages for

Cheltenham. I hope you enjoy them and will find some

value in them as we get closer to Cheltenham.

 

Many sources will be churning out the same old hackneyed

stats and trends.

We plan to provide you with less run of the mill stuff

that could provide you with extra edge against the crowds.

 

We had an excellent Cheltenham Last year.

Many members who joined last March stayed and

are still with us. They now realise there is not any

other service out there that offers anything like as

comprehensive and as ground breaking as we do.

 

WARNING – DO NOT JOIN US TODAY

It is becoming tradition here to offer a cut price deal

for Cheltenham month.

My webman will get a cheap join page sorted

for you over the next few days.

So wait for the cheaper deal is my best advice.

I will tell you when ready via this newsletter.

 

Anyhow on to today’s stat nugget.

 

Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chases

This is a good statistic that you won’t read about

anywhere else that I hope will provide quite a few

negatives at the meeting. Everyone seems to be

in two camps with Statistics during Cheltenham.

You have the Die Hard statistical punters refusing

to consider and bet horses that are not consistent

with the particular statistic they have heard about

or bought in publications. They treat statistics at

the meeting religiously and wont budge from them.

We also have the sceptics in another camp who

refuse to acknowledge the validity of betting from

a statistical perspective. They are so often quick

to remind everyone when a statistic doesn’t work

out which is always going to happen quite often.

I don’t see myself in either camp. I see the huge

benefits statistics do bring but also the dangers.

You need a level of statistical maturity to benefit

from this approach to betting. One of the reasons

some people use statistics at Cheltenham might

be that the field sizes are so big it is impossible

to cope with all the runners and this way allows

people to reduce the workload. It’s slightly lazy.

I don’t follow individual statistics. I like to see a

combination of statistics. For example I do not

mind if my horse has a high weight but only if

they are the right type of horse that does that.

This is a statistic that I think is quite relevant.

 

* Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chases

* Since 1997 there have been 60 of these

* That’s over any and every distance

* This does not include the Novice Handicap Chase

* This does not include the Cross Country Race

* 15 Winners carried 11st or more to win

* Look at the record of 7 year olds with 11st or more

* Horses aged 7 or more with 11st or more are 0-71

* I don’t mind high weighted horses in handicap Chases

* I don’t mind 7 year olds in handicap Chases

* I do think twice before I bet 7yo’s with high weights

* This 0-71 record seems quite a strong one to me

* 24 of the 71 Losers were 10/1 or shorter

* Were not talking about a load of no hopers here

Watch the 7 year olds this week in the Handicap Chases.

There should be quite a few. It will be interesting to see
if the well fancied and well touted SUPER DUTY can break

this statistic. He is a 7 year old and has 11st 9lbs on the

Thursday in the Kim Muir Handicap and is 6/1 favourite.

I’m not saying he wont win. I am just illustrating an angle

that is Not in the public domain that needs to be thought

about and considered. Some say ignorance is bliss and

that may be true but this game’s an intellectual challenge

and I would rather know about these things that not know

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Saturday After Cheltenham

No free tip message today. I only put a
few hours in to the Saturday meeting after Cheltenham
as the festival work is so demanding and I find it impossible
to raise my game today.
We made some serious profit at Cheltenham.
That’s over now and we have targets ahead.

The Year takes a very
sharp turn now Cheltenham has gone. We are heading
towards the flat season and finally some serious racing
with one eye on the Grand National meeting. This year
I will provide extensive statistics in all races at Aintree.
I have never done that before as I haven’t had the time
in the past because the start of the flat took over.
I’m going to put enough time aside this year and sort it out.
At some stage I have to move house as well.
It’ll have to be a very well planned next few weeks.
The carnival is over and we an regroup on Monday or
Tuesday and getback to some normality as the flat racing is coming.

A very nice end to the festival with the only bet on the
day SYNCHRONISED winning the Gold Cup at a decent
price. He turned the festival from a reasonable one to a
very good one. I was right to keep the bets down with a
lot of unsortable races yesterday. In the extra analysis section
Salsify won for us and we had a good 16/1 each way place in the
Grand Annual so the bottom of the message more than paid it’s way but it was really about SYNCHRONISED available at 9/1 and 10/1 and a
truly brilliant ride from Tony McCoy. There are plenty
of ups and downs in this game but betting a winners of a
top class race at good odds is as good as it gets and that
put the seal on a really good Cheltenham Festival for us

Feedback from new members over Cheltenham has been very positive.

Not surprising as they made some significant profit.
My quick back of envelope calc is that we had firm bets in 12 Cheltenham races.
£50 total staked per race would have made a net profit in the region of £650 to £700

The deal page we will leave up till Monday morning.
It’s a a very good offer adn a great opportunity for anyone interested to test the
beauty of the full service proper with their own eyes.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

Back next week however fingers crossed with the usual Saturday Free Blog Tip.

Posted under horse racing tips