SERVICE NEWS

There are 69 days to the Cheltenham Festival. In
aviation terms the National Hunt flight takes off
in November with the Destination Cheltenham in
March. We have been through the turbulance of
weeks 1 and 2 in January where the racing is poor
and one of the bumpiest parts of the trip. Now as
we come to weeks 3 and 4 in January the flight is
now starting a gradual descent down to destination.
During that descent passangers will be able to see
some great landmarks like the Tote Gold Trophy
now known sadly as the Betfair hurdle. There is
the Skybet Chase – The victor chandler at Ascot
and many other statistically strong races. We are
entering Ante Post Season now which is always a
lot more interesting than the drudgery you get on
the Sand and the lower grade national hunt cards.
I plan to do full statistical previews for all the big
trials and I always get excited at this time of year.

SATURDAY’S RACING

The horse I am most excited about today
and the strongest bet advised today to Full Members,
runs in a very early race today. I will leave metioning it here
on the free betting blog.

For the free tip today we are off to Warwick for one of the later races.

W a r w i c k   3.40

5/1 Sona Sasta, 6/1 Neptune Equester, 7/1 Blazing Bailey
7/1 Strongbows Legend, 8/1 Major Malarkey, 10/1 Faasel
10/1 Hey Big Spender, Bench Warrent 14/1 Fredo
14/1 Morning Moment,16/1 On Borrowed Wings
20/1 Hello Bud 20/1 Miko De Beauchene.

* The Classic Chase is a high class 3m 5f Handicap Chase
* There are 20 similar races at this time of year.
* Not a great stats race as it has changed over the years
* There is a small sample size of these races as well
* MORNING MOMENT – Not for me 8lbs out of the weights
* All recent winners had more backclass than him
* His last run was poor and he has a weak profile
* Only 2 winners overcame heavy defeats to win similar races
* They all had Backclass in Graded races and he doesnt
* I’d also argue he may not stay this far
* MIKO DE BEAUCHENE looks wrong aged 12
* He has not ran a good race in over 2 years
* He is out of the handicap and offers nothing
* FAASEL is 11 and has a miserable profile
* I dont want to bet an exposed 11yo first time out
* I looked at every race in January
* Thats every distance , every class and any kind of race
* I looked at exposed horses aged 11 or more first time
* None managed to win beyond 3 Miles
* None managed to win beyond a Class 4 race
* The only Handicap Chase winner was 2m 5f in Class 4
* FAASEL has a very hard task in my view
* He has never won beyond 2m 5f before either
* HEY BIG SPENDER comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* There isnt enough recovery time
* That hurts his profile and so does his weight
* Horses with 11st 8lbs in this race were 0-17
* HEY BIG SPENDER also has to prove he stays this far
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 3f yet
* BENCH WARRENT comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* He may struggle to get over a hard race at Chepstow
* Statistically I can live with him
* I cant forgive him a hard 4th in the Welsh National
* Not with a very inexperienced jockey
* ON BORROWED WINGS comes from 22f
* No winners did that in any similar race in January
* His last Chase was only in a Novice Handicap
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* FREDO is exposed and doesnt do it for me
* No exposed horse won when  aged 8
* None won when coming from 3m or shorter either
* FREDO also has to show he stays
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* HELLO BUD is too old aged 14
* I looked at every winner aged 13 or more over 3m 2f +
* Thats in any race and at any time of year
* There was only 1 winner beyond a Class 3 race
* That was Spot The Difference in a Cross Country Chase
* Out of form aged 14 he is not worth betting
* BLAZING BAILEY comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* There isnt enough recovery time
* I can accept the argument he is a class horse
* And that he will like the ground and the drop in class
* You can also argue he didnt have too hard a race at Chepstow
* Statistically though he is not strong
* I looked at all exposed horses running within a month
* They had a bad record and none ran as badly as him last time

S h o r t l i s t

* MAJOR MALARKEY has 1 run this season
* Thats easily my biggest problem with him
* Past winners had  1 2 3 2 6 2 4 runs that season
* Last years winner was a 9yo with 1 run this year
* That really does help his profile
* Last years winner also had 9 Chase starts like him
* Last years winner helpsm to gets him shortlisted
* Without that evidence I’d have opposed him
* Still bothers me he’s the only horse with 1 run

* STRONGBOWS LEGEND is hard to read aged 7
* All 7 year old winners were placed last time
* STRONGBOWS LEGEND Fell which isnt a good preparation
* Ignore that and he won 25 lengths before that
* This is said to be a very well handicapped horse
* His lack of backclass bothers me a bit
* STRONGBOWS LEGEND has no form beyond Class 3 grade
* The last 7 winners all had Graded form
* Almost every similar winner had more backclass too
* He is 5lbs out of the handicap as well
* I like him a lot but not sure if he has the class

* SONA SASTA has 5 Chase starts
* We have had recent winners with 4 and 6 chase starts
* I’d have liked a slighly better last run
* I can overlook that as he hasn’t done much wrong
* If the grounds right he must be a player
* He has to prove he stays this far though
* Thats not certain on his breeding

* NEPTUNE EQUESTER – No strong problems with him
* He did the right thing avoiding the Welsh National
* I dont see why he shouldnt go well

Selection

NEPTUNE EQUESTER 13/2 Each Way

13/2 available at bet365

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-01-14/warwick/15-40/betting/

 

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

This not the race I am directing paying clients to bet in today.

It is however the race most asked about  in my inbox.

Here are my stats and quick thoughts.

 

AYR 3.25

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
(Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* Previous winners had the following runs that season
* 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-116
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 5 Chase starts.
* Horses aged 7 have a weak 1-50 record
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 2-80 record
* None have won since 1997
* No horse placed at the Cheltenham festival has won this race
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Grade 1 form
* They both had only 10st weight as well
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* No winners came from Hurdles
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-81
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* 11 of the last 12 winners ran within 60 days
* 7 of the last 9 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-16 record in this
* The last 11 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out

I came down to 4 horses to consider.
Outsiders BALLYFITZ and REGAL HEIGHTS do have reasonable profiles.
I see MINELLA FOUR STAR and
ALWAYS RIGHT as having every chance as well.
It would be easy to go with ALWAYS RIGHT but perhaps as a saver
with MINELLA FOUR STAR the main choice of the pair.

18/1 ish available on Betfair

Posted under horse racing tips

Posted under Main Content

Right now I have to admit I am more focussed on preparation next week’s Cheltenham Festival than today’s racing.
I have already researched all my stats for the Festival.
( up on full member private message board now )
As it stands today I have identified six horses over the Festival that have the potential to be full Account bets.
Going, final runners, a bit more fine tuned research  and odds available will dictate if I account Bet them or not on race day.

The cheap first month deal for Cheltenham is still on.
Time is ticking on it however.

Here is the cheap price link:

*************************************************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
*************************************************

Saturday Racing

I don’t see a bet strong enough to stake today as a full Account Bet.
I’ve 3 horses at the top of the full member message that look interesting.

One of them I will post up here on the free blog.

MICKY’S KNOCK OFF feels stronger but only because
in his race the opposition are easier to understand. The
other two runners have more unknown opposition but
it wouldn’t surprise me if they turned out to be stronger
options. Considering the frame of the races the bet that
stands out may well be 3 each way doubles on these 3.

Personally I’m having a small win bet on Micky’s Knock Off

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.00

3/1 Il Forno, 4/1 Blue Neptune, 4/1 Magenta Strait
6/1 Bird Call, 6/1 Clear Ice, 6/1 Micky´s Knock Off
16/1 Crystal Glass, 50/1 Shawkantango.

The 4pm is a 3yo Claimer over 5f and these are rare as
contests. I would rule out everything with under 4 runs
as the 26 similar winners all had 5 or more starts. There
were 5 winners absent over a month. Interesting that 4
of them were fillies and that all 5 of them had between
9 and 12 career starts and came from handicaps. I had
3 on my shortlist. Horses like Blue Neptune that came
from 5f handicaps tended to run much better last time.
I respect Il Forno but horses from 6f claimers were 0-12
so I cant pretend I wouldn’t have preferred a better stat.
MICKY’S KNOCK OFF is a positive and my selection.
He has the required experience and a recent run which
many lack. He will be tough to kick out of the three. It
may be that around 7/2 he should be a win bet. He has
speed to burn and would have won at the 5f marker in
his last race. I think he will win.

SELECTION – MICKY’S KNOCK OFF

7/2 at Ladbrokes, PaddyPower , CanBet , bet365

Best wishes
Guy

Posted under horse racing tips

Before we move to today’s racing  a couple of points to cover.

1 – The Worst Tip Ever !

Last weekend’s blog tip was the worst tip ever.
Not that Maku ran a bad race finishing 2nd at 7/1 beaten by a head.
The analysis was almost spot on.
The horror was in the fact that Maku actually ran on Friday not Saturday when the tip was posted.
This was genuine human error.
My admin man posted it up. He was away from home confused with a borrowed PC and obviously working with insufficient caffeine in his system.

I have told him if he ever posts up a free blog tip again the day after it runs ..  to post up  a winner ..not a horse beaten by a head

2 – Full Service Cheap Price Cheltenham Deal

We are running a half price offer now for full membership.
Join today and your months membership obviously covers the upcoming Cheltenham festival.
If you are a regular blog reader you will know the sort of detail we go into.
For Cheltenham I work even harder for clients.
I doubt you will get a more comprehensive Cheltenham service anywhere.

You know you want in for Cheltenham so just do it now while it’s half price.

Here is the cheap price link
*************************************************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
*************************************************

A sample message from last year is at the link below

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-betting-advice.asp

On to Today

For full members we have a full account bet in the 4.05

Out of respect for them we can’t post that here.

A small snippet from the extra analysis section of the main message is copied below for you however.

KEMPTON 3.05

Racing Post Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m

7/2 Nacarat, 4/1 Fistral Beach, 9/2 Kilcrea Castle,
8/1 Madison Du Berlais, 12/1 Atouchbetweenacara
14/1 Oedipe, 16/1 Le Burf, 16/1 Piraya, 16/1 Private Be
20/1 Razor Royale, 28/1 Something Wells, 33/1 Bible Lord
66/1 Ollie Magern.

* The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3m
* There has been 15 renewals of this race.
* There has been 70 similar races in Febuary
* Thats 70 Handicap Chases at 3m in Class 2 or higher

I think we can rule out Something Wells- Ollie Magern and
Bible Lord who wants a smaller field than this. PIRAYA may
also want a smaller field. All his dissapointing runs come in field sizes of 11 or more runners.
Horses with 1 run this year score badly. Those like ATOUCHBETWEENACARA who
have to step up in trip struggle and he didnt do enough for
me last time. OEDIPE has just 1 run this year and I don’t see enough in his profile to
forgive him that. Experience could be a problem for FISTRAL BEACH who has had
just 3 runs over Chases. The lightest raced chaser to win this was the high class
Gloria Victus who won this in 2000 with just five  chase starts and went on to run
in the Gold Cup after this race. It’s asking a lot for  FISTRAL BEACH to win
with just 3 runs. The 15 winners of this race all had more experience.
They had 6 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 13 chase runs.
I am looking elsewhere. I dont know if LE BURF will have the class.
Most recent winners of this were unexposed. He isnt and none came from
Class 3 races or lower like him. He  isnt proven beyond doubt over this
distance and having never placed or won above a Class 3 grade before
he may just be found out on a career high mark.

NACARAT won this easily last year by 11 lengths although
he was in much better form last year.  This year he has been beaten miles in
all 3 races albeit in top class races. His issue is can he come back to form -
and can he show he stays this far on much softer ground than last year and
with a longer than ideal absence. If you look at the winners of this race in the
past you want a consistent horse thats been running well all year and NACARAT
does not fit that pattern. The Last 14  winners of this race ran 50 seperate times
in the season they won. In these 50 races in the season they won – the winners
managed to either Win or Place in 44 out of the 50 races. It’s
a strong statistic that shows you want a horse thats running well all season and
coming here with several wins and places this year. You want consistency as
much as anything else in this race and Last time out winners won 12 of the last
16 races  and every past winner was 1-2-3-4-5 last time out with just one
falling. NACARAT hasnt placed since 2009 and I reject him.

SHORTLIST

RAZOR ROYALE – Best outsider – Small chance – Shortlistable

KILCREA CASTLE – Profile is quite good and a strong runner

MADISON DU BERLAIS – Class horse and every chance

PRIVATE BE – The arguments for him are persuasive

SELECTION

I dont really want to be with Madison Du Berlais as this
is a Momentum race. I would want a better stable for this
class than Kilcrea Castle. You can look at Private Be in
two ways. Ideally I wouldnt want a 11yo up in trip but
the arguments for him on the track and with some of his
form is persuasive off 10st weight so a split stake bet.

PRIVATE BE 10/1
RAZOR ROYALE 20/1

Split Stake Bet

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips