Cheltenham Gold Cup – Early Analysis

Below is a snippet from our Full member message of yesterday
in which Guy was having an early look at this year's
Cheltenham Gold Cup.

I thought I would post it up here in case any
of you blog readers had an interest.

Note as well that it has been tradition over the past 
few years to also post up here on the blog his 
final judgement Gold Cup Analysis. 

Typically this will be on the morning of the race.
This year we will probably do the same.
I temper it with the "probably" only because
one can never guarantee how things will pan out.
Cheltenham non runner no bet markets do give
a certain comfort to slightly earlier than day of the race 
betting.There is always a chance that Guy may spy a degree of 
extra edge from earlier Gold Cup advice for our full members.
eg say for example there was a change in predicted going for 
Gold Cup day two days before the race. Perhaps under NRNB it 
may be shrewd to take the current price on a going suited 
horses instead of waiting for two days
when it will likely be shorter.

Hence "probably" here on Gold Cup day :)

The best spot to be of course is in as a full member for 
Cheltenham month.

We will actually be doing a cheap offer deal as we 
have done in past years.
Many major festival only types come back year 
after year for the Cheap Cheltenham month deal.

Drop me an email if you want more info
See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/contact.asp





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FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Today I wanted to make some progress

On the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Which is now just 16 days away



Cheltenham Gold Cup

9/2 Clan Des Obeaux 9/1 Presenting Percy
6/1 Native River 11/1 Kemboy 14/1 Might Bite
16/1 Thistlecrack 20/1  Al Boum Photo
25/1 Road To Respect 33/1 Elegant Escape
33/1 Shattered Love


If you go back to 1999

19 renewals
17 of the 19 winners
Shared the following profile

1) Under 10 years old
2) Under 15 Chase runs
3) Absent more than 4 weeks
4) Coming from a Graded race
5) Starting under 10/1 last time
6) Under 21 lifetime runs
7) Starting 20/1 or shorter


19 renewals since 1999
75 horses had this profile
17 of these won the race

Horses with this profile

Presenting Percy
Shattered Love
Elegant Escape
Kemboy

Just looking at that shortlist
KEMBOY would be my preference

I would not use this profile religiously
It would only take minor adjustments
And I could add other horses to the list
Take the example of Al Boum Photo
Just ran in Listed class not Graded class
I could easily forgive a few horses angles
Road To Respect could have got there


Anyway

Wanted to have a look at the main runners
Listed some of their positives + negatives
And see where we ended up at the end

9/2 Clan Des Obeaux 9/1 Presenting Percy
6/1 Native River 11/1 Kemboy 14/1 Might Bite
16/1 Thistlecrack 20/1  Al Boum Photo
25/1 Road To Respect 33/1 Elegant Escape
33/1 Shattered Love


Number of Chase runs

22 Frodon
21 Bristol De Mai
18 Definitly Red
15 Native River
15 Road To Respect
14 Anibale Fly
13 Might Bite
13 Clan Des Obeaux
11 Elegant Escape
11 Shattered Love
9 Bellshill
8 Thistlecrack
8 Kemboy
7 Al Boum Photo
5 Presenting Percy


This is an illustration
Of how exposed the main runners are

The Previous 23 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

12 9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

21 of the 23 last Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs



FRODON

22 Chase runs
Just looks too exposed

BRISTOL DE MAI

21 Chase runs
Just looks too exposed

DEFINITLY RED
18 Chase runs
Not in line with almost all winners

NATIVE RIVER

15 Chase starts is forgiveable
But he has had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
He did win the race last season
Only 4 of the last 50 winners
Followed up and won this again
Will one or two improve past him
Can he repeat previous heroics
When the ground may not be soft

THISTLECRACK

11 years old
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a very poor  record
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992
He has also had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
Has not won a race since 2016

MIGHT BITE

10 years old
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a very poor  record
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992
Flopped on his two runs this season

PRESENTING PERCY

5 Chase runs
You can win this with 5
Interrupted Season
Just 1 run this year (hurdles)

CLAN DES OBEAUX

Has a 27 day absence
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
Has a stamina problem as well
Horses sired by Kapgarde
Running in Listed and Graded races
Racing over 3m 1f and more
Have a 0-15 record so far

ANIBALE FLY

Not a certain runner
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
The last 17 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn't
He has had 22 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts

SHATTERED LOVE

She is a mare
Official Ratings have her way behind
Big price if you wanted to risk her

ELEGANT ESCAPE

Defied his pedigree before
Can't be ruled out with 11 chase runs
But flat bred and just can't have the pedigree


Leaning more towards these horses


AL BOUM PHOTO

He is a 7yo
Has raced just once this season
Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Worried about a 7yo with 1 run
That is my only problem with him
Two recent winners had 1 run that year
Thats a positive but none were 7yo's
He is also coming from a sire
Without a winner over this far

KEMBOY

He is a 7yo
Maybe fast improving
But Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Kemboy has raced only twice
Sire has no wins yet over 3m 2f +

INVITATION ONLY

Backed him at 50/1 some time ago
Seen as not a certain runner

ROAD TO RESPECT

15 Chase runs is acceptable
Finished a decent 4th in 2018 race
Connections say he wants it soft
His numbers don't really prove this
Stamina may be an issue sired by Gamut
His sires runners in Class 4 or higher
None have yet won beyond 3m 1f (0-13)
I would not rule him out on the above

BELLSHILL

9 Chase runs is good
21 lifetime runs is the maximum
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts


Provisional Shortlist

INVITATION ONLY 50/1 (WP Mullins)
AL BOUM PHOTO 20/1 (WP Mullins)
KEMBOY 10/1 (WP Mullins)
BELLSHILL 14/1 (WP Mullins)
ROAD TO RESPECT 25/1


Obviously things can change
May have a completely different view later
But these 5 horses interested me most

4 of the 5 shortlisted
Are trained by Willie Mullins

Can't find any prices yet
Just for Mullins to win this race
But that could be an option later on

This list could be whittled down
Invitation Only may run elsewhere

Obviously the biggest headache
Not knowing the stable pecking order
But looking at this experimental shortlist
Looking at the prices and frame of race

If the race was being run today
I would probably stake it this way

£2.50 Each Way KEMBOY 10/1
£2.50 Each Way BELLSHILL 14/1

The race is not being run today
There is still much we do not know
Such as ground and running plans
Still clinging on for the vain hope
That we may be offered 4 places
I don't think we will get that though

But this is where I am with the race

No final selection ( just yet )
***************************************************
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Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

You will have no trouble finding stats for the Gold Cup.

Below however are some of my own extracted from my 50 page
Cheltenham stats document. Use them to supplement your own
study of the race or even better perhaps, save your brain
cells and read my own final interpretation of this race on
race day as a client.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

We did well in this race year using the excessive media hype
around the the Kauto Star Long Run battle to pick of value
odds on Synchronised. See a copy of our reasoning at this
link    Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

 

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2013 Stats

Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

 

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y

* 16 of the last 17 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts

* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009

* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases

* 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled

* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-88 record

* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse

* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record.

* They’ve won 17 of the last 19 Cheltenham Gold Cups.

* Horses aged 10 do not have a great record

* Horses aged 10 have a 1-93 record since 1992

* Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969

* All 38 that ran in the last 18 years lost.

* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.

* I wouldn’t’t want a horse with fewer runs that season

* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine

* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.

* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form.

* 12 of the last 15 winners placed at a previous Festival.

* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out

* The only exception was 2011 winner 5th in a Grade 1

* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.

* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race

* Horses from a Grade 1 – Grade 2 chase last time are best

* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best

* Every winner since 1992 had managed that

* A Novice has not won the Gold Cup since 1974

* Two recent winners came from Handicaps

* Both those winners had Grade 1 Form before

* No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat

 

 

Service News

Cheltenham betting action has started already with a long
odds ante post tip advised to clients this morning. Ante Post
betting before the start of the Festival is safer these days
with an abundance of non runner no bet offers.

We are playing in the 2.40 on Tuesday – The JLT Specialty
Handicap Chase

This was yet another good race for us in 2012 with advised
bet ALFIE SHERRIN winning nicely for us. ALFIE SHERRIN was
available at 20/1 at bookmakers for hours after we tipped
him and probably even greater odds were available on Betfair
.

We said at the time:

* ALFIE SHERRIN is very interesting

* Go back to the 2010 Cheltenham Festival

* He was a huge gamble starting 11/4 for the Pertemps

* He was Paul Nicholls trained then moved to Jonjo

* Had his quirks – been hard to train – but has some positives

* ALFIE SHERRIN is rated 147 over hurdles

* Today over fences he is rated 129

* The first thing we know is he is very well treated

* The next thing we know are his connections

* JP McManus and Jonjo O’Neill

* We know we can put a line through several runs

* There is every chance he has been saved for this race

* I opposed him in the Midlands Grand National

* He was too inexperienced and after than he was unreadable

* Switched between Hurdles and Chases and different distances

* I think he is being conditioned to win a good race

* His jumping may not be as safe as I’d like

* Not sure how robust or reliable he is

* I watched both his last two races though

* Both left me certain he was given quiet rides

* JPMcManus paid £110k for this horse. He wasn’t cheap.

* He should be much happier on this ground

* Not keen he comes from hurdles or out or the handicap

* I do think the good outweighs the bad at 20/1 +

* Tony McCoy can’t do 10st which is why he doesn’t ride

* I see him very much as the Stables Number 1 option

* He could easily fall or go missing without trace

* Equally he is thrown in and this could be his day

 

But who are we on this year?

 

Take the secret cheap deal and find out.

Be sure to pick up today’s message in our member area when
you do.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

These are based on the past thirteen years of Cheltenham Gold Cup runnings.

We go to this level for almost all races we anlaysis whether its a major festival such as Cheltenham or a minor meeting in January. Working harder than others produces an edge.

 

Cheltenham Friday 3.20

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase 3m 2 1/2f

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
* 15 of the last 16 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009
* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled
* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-85 record
* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse
* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record.
* They’ve won 16 of the last 18 Cheltenham Gold Cups.
* Horses aged 10 do not have a great record
* Horses aged 10 have a 1-90 record since 1992
* Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
* All 36 that ran in the last 18 years lost.
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* I wouldnt want a horse with fewer runs that season
* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine
* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.
* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form.
* 12 of the last 14 winners placed at a previous Festival.
* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out
* The only exception was last years winner 5th in a Grade 1
* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.
* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race
* Horses from a Grade 1 – Grade 2 chase last time are best
* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best
* Every winner since 1992 had managed that
* A Novice hasnt won the Gold Cup since 1974
* Two recent winners came from Handicaps
* Both those winners had Grade 1 Form before
* No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat

S t r o n g e s t A n g l e s

* 15 of the last 16 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled
* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season
* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips