Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip 2013

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

The final day of Cheltenham and the main highlight
is the Gold Cup. The rain is going to make things far
harder today but we have given the last 3 Gold Cup
winners and I will try to improve that proud record.

Heavy rain is due around Lunchtime that is likely
to turn the ground soft and maybe Heavy so that’s
the one thing to remember and account for.

 

Cheltenham 3.20

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

Racing Post Odds

11/4 Bobs Worth, 7/2 Sir Des Champs
9/2 Silviniaco Conti, 11/2 Long Run, 14/1 Cape Tribulation
14/1 Captain Chris, 14/1 The Giant Bolster
66/1 Monbeg Dude, 100/1 Wayward Prince.

The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y

This is the real highlight of the meeting and a race
where I trust my angles. We have a brilliant record
in this race. All past messages for years are posted
on the message board. I looked at recent Gold Cup
messages and it struck me how well we had done.

Service Bets in the Cheltenham Gold Cup

2012 – Synchronised WON 10/1
2011 – Long Run WON 5/1
2010 – Imperial Commander WON 12/1
2009 – Albertas Run Lost 14/1
2008 – Denman WON 9/4
2007 – No Bet
2006 – Hedgehunter 2nd 20/1 – Follow The Past 3rd 9/1

We have tipped the last 3 winners of this race and at
10/1 5/1 and 12/1 although I did have a saver in 2011
and a Split Stake in 2010. This only shows that I have
developed a good understanding about just what it
takes to win a race like this. Lets hope this continues.

* We need to get rid of the horses with little chance
* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race
* MONBEG DUDE is rated far too low
* WAYWARD PRINCE is also too low

 

Racing Post Ratings on Bad Ground

This is a complete experiment. I have never
done it before. I have looked at recent form in
the last couple of years with the aim of trying
to provide a table of “best performances” that
were given in the conditions we have today.

* These scores are Racing Post Ratings only
* I demanded the Following Conditions
* The Ground must be described as one of these
* Either Soft or Heavy or the Going Stick under 7.0
* This is only in Chases and not hurdles
* It must be in the past two seasons

Top Rated Scores

1) LONG RUN 180
2) SILVIANO CONTI 175
3) BOBS WORTH 174
3) LONG RUN 174
5) SILVINIACO CONTI 173
5) LONG RUN 173
7) LONG RUN 171
8) CAPTAIN CHRIS 170
8) CAPTAIN CHRIS 170
10) SIRE DES CHAMPS 169
11) SIRE DES CHAMPS 168
11) THE GIANT BOLSTER 168
11) SILVINIACO CONTI 168
14) CAPE TRIBULATION 166
15) THE GIANT BOLSTER 166

* This is unscientific for the following reasons
* Describing the Ground is problematic
* I have no Going Stick readings for Ireland
* Some horses have had more opportunities
* Lighter raced horses don’t get as many chances

I am looking solely at Chases in the past two years
that were run on soft or heavy ground or at a track
when the Going Stick was under 7.0. The scores in
this table are Racing post Ratings with this criteria.

* LONG RUN has the 1st 3rd 5th 7th best ratings
* I would see him in a favourable light because of it

* Back to a more Traditional style of analysis
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* I wouldn’t want a horse with fewer runs that season
* BOBS WORTH is the only horse with just 1 run
* He is also the shortest priced horse as well
* BOBS WORTH has a lot to prove with just 1 run
* I cant help feeling missing his prep runs an issue

* BOBS WORTH has 5 Chase runs and just 1 run this season
* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* The horse with 5 Chase starts was Long Run in 2011
* However Long Run had 4 extra French Chase runs
* BOBS WORTH would be the least experienced winner

* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* BOBS WORTH only has 1 run – a serious worry
* He isn’t a big horse and that wont help
* Not when he is under pressure and lacking a run

* 16 of the last 17 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
* The rest of the field have between 8 and 16 runs
* I would see that as acceptable

* CAPE TRIBULATION doesn’t interest me
* Exposed horses like him rarely win this race
* His win last time didn’t impress me and I tipped him
* He beat 12 year old absent 680 days into second
* The 3rd horse didn’t stay and 4th was out of form
* He is smaller than ideal and likes smaller fields
* It will be slightly disappointing if he wins

* CAPTAIN CHRIS has to prove he will stay
* There is a big doubt about that
* I looked at his Sires record in Listed and Graded Class
* None of his offspring won over this far in that class
* He is also better going right handed

* THE GIANT BOLSTER was 2nd last year
* Granted similar conditions the race should suit him
* He is Exposed now though with 23 National Hunt starts
* This race rarely goes to a horse with so many runs
* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* THE GIANT BOLSTER now has 14 Chase runs
* Only 1 of the last 16 winners had 14 or more chase runs
* He has 8 runs in Grade 1-2 before and has yet to win
* You would expect something to beat him

* SILVINIACO CONTI passes all the main angles
* There is no doubt he has the class to win
* It will come down to if he stays and handles the track
* He isn’t a big horse and I don’t like that
* The small field should help him
* I’d have liked stronger evidence he likes Cheltenham
* SILVINIACO CONTI has shown he stays 3m 1f twice
* That was at Wetherby and Aintree
* I looked at the course record times for those races
* I also looked at the Racing Post Standard times
* It takes around 24-30 seconds longer to run this trip
* The testing uphill finish could be too much for him

Shortlist

LONG RUN
SIR DES CHAMPS

I have two on my shortlist. The only thing that does
worry me is that BOBS WORTH whilst statistically a
lot weaker than this pair may turn out to be special.
There is a fair chance that he is and I wont be that
surprised if he can win despite a vulnerable profile.

* LONG RUN has 24 runs and 16 came in Chases
* That’s on the high side and it is a worry
* That does however include his younger French form
* However if we ignore his runs in France as a 3yo-4yo
* He then doesn’t look as exposed as before
* In England he has 12 runs all of these Chases

* He does meet some improving younger horses
* He should run his race and he should go close
* He dominates my Racing Post Ratings table above
* An important factor will be his Cheek pieces
* His stable are on record as saying they benefit him
* The 1999 winner had headgear so it has been done
* LONG RUN could be the professional bet here

* SIR DES CHAMPS comes out very well
* 8 Chase starts is not far off perfect
* He is 2-2 at Cheltenham Festivals
* There are factors against him
* SIR DES CHAMPS is only 8th best on Official Ratings
* That seems ridiculous but there are higher rated horses

* SIR DES CHAMPS is the stand out profile here
* He is the statistical choice on my angles
* He does need to prove he stays this trip
* He needs to do that on the ground as well

* I looked at the record of his Sire
* I looked at his offspring running under these conditions
* Running over 3m+ in soft ground in Listed-Graded class
* There was a 4-10 record which is very encouraging
* That said all 4 winners were 3m 1f or shorter
* None as yet have done it over this far

 

Selection

LONG RUN 5/1 Each Way

I think this has to be the bet each way. Had it been
faster ground I would have bet Sir Des Champs as
the best profile horse. I could and nearly did have
a saver on him but surely LONG RUN is the better
bet each way. This allows you some safety even if
BOBS WORTH or SIR DES CHAMPS turn out to be
special as well they might. LONG RUN has placed
and Won in the Gold Cup. Obviously he is not the
same horse as he was when winning this in 2011
but does he need to be ? Look at his figures and
there is only roughly half a stones regression and
his Racing Post Ratings on bad ground hold up as
well as any. There are several doubtful stayers in
this field and a few that wouldn’t want this ground.

5/1 at 1/4 odds is available at bet365
( and would be applicable for their 4/1 free bet bonus )

Same odds at betfredWilliam Hillstan jamesbet victor
All mentioned above off BOG prices to protect you if it happens to drift out later.

Good luck today whether following me or doing your own thing.

Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk


PS Join for a full month of pro service while the Cheltenham Deal remains live.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

It will dissappear after the weekend. Take The Price.

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 15, 2013

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Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

You will have no trouble finding stats for the Gold Cup.

Below however are some of my own extracted from my 50 page
Cheltenham stats document. Use them to supplement your own
study of the race or even better perhaps, save your brain
cells and read my own final interpretation of this race on
race day as a client.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

We did well in this race year using the excessive media hype
around the the Kauto Star Long Run battle to pick of value
odds on Synchronised. See a copy of our reasoning at this
link    Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

 

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2013 Stats

Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

 

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y

* 16 of the last 17 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts

* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009

* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases

* 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled

* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-88 record

* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse

* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record.

* They’ve won 17 of the last 19 Cheltenham Gold Cups.

* Horses aged 10 do not have a great record

* Horses aged 10 have a 1-93 record since 1992

* Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969

* All 38 that ran in the last 18 years lost.

* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.

* I wouldn’t’t want a horse with fewer runs that season

* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine

* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.

* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form.

* 12 of the last 15 winners placed at a previous Festival.

* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out

* The only exception was 2011 winner 5th in a Grade 1

* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.

* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race

* Horses from a Grade 1 – Grade 2 chase last time are best

* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best

* Every winner since 1992 had managed that

* A Novice has not won the Gold Cup since 1974

* Two recent winners came from Handicaps

* Both those winners had Grade 1 Form before

* No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat

 

 

Service News

Cheltenham betting action has started already with a long
odds ante post tip advised to clients this morning. Ante Post
betting before the start of the Festival is safer these days
with an abundance of non runner no bet offers.

We are playing in the 2.40 on Tuesday – The JLT Specialty
Handicap Chase

This was yet another good race for us in 2012 with advised
bet ALFIE SHERRIN winning nicely for us. ALFIE SHERRIN was
available at 20/1 at bookmakers for hours after we tipped
him and probably even greater odds were available on Betfair
.

We said at the time:

* ALFIE SHERRIN is very interesting

* Go back to the 2010 Cheltenham Festival

* He was a huge gamble starting 11/4 for the Pertemps

* He was Paul Nicholls trained then moved to Jonjo

* Had his quirks – been hard to train – but has some positives

* ALFIE SHERRIN is rated 147 over hurdles

* Today over fences he is rated 129

* The first thing we know is he is very well treated

* The next thing we know are his connections

* JP McManus and Jonjo O’Neill

* We know we can put a line through several runs

* There is every chance he has been saved for this race

* I opposed him in the Midlands Grand National

* He was too inexperienced and after than he was unreadable

* Switched between Hurdles and Chases and different distances

* I think he is being conditioned to win a good race

* His jumping may not be as safe as I’d like

* Not sure how robust or reliable he is

* I watched both his last two races though

* Both left me certain he was given quiet rides

* JPMcManus paid £110k for this horse. He wasn’t cheap.

* He should be much happier on this ground

* Not keen he comes from hurdles or out or the handicap

* I do think the good outweighs the bad at 20/1 +

* Tony McCoy can’t do 10st which is why he doesn’t ride

* I see him very much as the Stables Number 1 option

* He could easily fall or go missing without trace

* Equally he is thrown in and this could be his day

 

But who are we on this year?

 

Take the secret cheap deal and find out.

Be sure to pick up today’s message in our member area when
you do.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)  3m2f110y

7/4 Long Run, 7/2 Kauto Star, 15/2 Burton Port
11/1 Synchronised, 12/1 Midnight Chase, 12/1 Weird Al
20/1 What A Friend, 33/1 Diamond Harry
40/1 Time For Rupert, 50/1 China Rock, 66/1 Carruthers
66/1 The Giant Bolster, 100/1 Knockara Beau
100/1 The Midnight Club.

The Gold Cup is always fascinating and is again this year
as well. You will no doubt have your own views about it
and may already be involved. I am going to see where a
few of my statistics lead me. It was 1969 before we last
had a winner aged 11 or more and for all his brilliance I
do oppose KAUTO STAR as a 12 year old. I dont think
its relevant what he has done at Kempton or Haydock
this season. Judge him on Gold Cup form and he failed
in 2011 and 2010 and never looked like winning either
of the last two renewals. I think something should beat
him. I would also go as far as saying he might not place
either. DIAMOND HARRY isn’t safe enough and dont
think he’s about to win a Gold Cup on this course. I’m
against BURTON POINT with just one run so far this
season. Every past winners had more. There must be a
chance he will bounce after his Newbury run and I feel
he is too riSky. He’s also a small horse that wont enjoy
this race of it gets rough in any way. I couldnt be with
him having just that one race. MIDNIGHT CHASE is
now an exposed 10 year old and whilst not a negative
horses his age have struggled recently. He doesn’t have
the right exposure and is rated a bit lower than is ideal.

P o s s i b l e s

WEIRD AL

WEIRD AL pulled up in last years race but He has been
quietly shortening in the betting this year and now 12/1
a much shorter price than you may expect. He is hard
to read. I can argue he’s lower than the minimum rating
I think you want. I can argue he did not quite do enough
on his last start but there is nothing statistically wrong
with his chance other than minor infringments. I also
think its quite interesting he has upgraded stables since
last year. He had a larynx problem that required surgery
after the Hennessy in 2001 and Bled in last years Gold
Cup. He is now with Donald McCain who has not raced
him since November. This horse is Best Fresh. The big
doubt is whether he is Man enough for the race. He was
a Boy last year. A Sickly child needing operations and
having physical problems. He was asked to do a bit too
much and wasn’t finishing races and getting distressed.

He was out of his depth and couldn’t cope. Now he has
a new trainer another year on his back and has shown
he isn’t far away from his best. Has that extra year or
new stable made him a Man Has he gone through the
process of Boy to Man or is he still weak and waiting
to crumble once tested to the maximum stress of any
Gold Cup. I dont know but he’s one of those that may
win or finish last and may be a win bet and a place lay.

S h o r t l i s t

LONG RUN

* LONG RUN – Statistically there are no problems
* Like many I haven’t been impressed with him this year
* My own view is winning this aged 6 knocked him back
* He is shortlistable and probably around the right price
* He will have to run and jump his best this year to win

WHAT A FRIEND

* Statistically I pass him as fine
* He fails 3 stats but only by the width of an Atom
* I want a 166 rating and he is 165
* I want a 1st or 2nd last time and he was 3rd
* I want a win within 6 runs and his came 7 runs ago
* I can ignore All that especially as he is 25/1 +
* I think this horse has been unfairly pidgeon holed
* He gets a lot of criticism as being ungenuine
* Many dont realise what he was up against
* I want to put the case for the defence
* WHAT A FRIEND won his first 2 chases in 2009
* Nothing wrong at all with that
* He was then hammered in the Sun Alliance
* When he flopped in the Sun Alliance I expected it
* Big negative that day with only 2 Chase starts
* We opposed him and he had the wrong preparation
* He won next time at Stratford
* First time out 2009-2010 he was 2nd in the Hennessy
* Second in Denmans Hennessy was a creditable effort
* WHAT A FRIEND won a Grade 1 next time
* He then went and won another Grade 1 after that
* He was beaten then at Haydock in November 2010
* That was first time out so hardly worth damming him
* He was odds on in the 2001 Aon Chase
* People criticised him but he did come second
* That day he had just 1 run that year and a long break
* I had him as a negative in that race and not safe
* His 2011 Gold Cup run was very good
* He was only beaten 11 lengths by Long run
* Ignore his run in the 2011 Grand National
* He didnt stay and he was technically still a 7yo
* None have won in decades and that was no shame
* This year he had a reasonable prep race at Newbury
* That will set him up with a chance in this race
* Whenever this horse has lost he has been criticised
* Almost every time he has there was a genuine excuse.
* WHAT A FRIEND should be half his price

SYNCHRONISED

I said in the January 21st message that my early choice
for the Gold Cup was SYNCHRONISED and nothing has
changed my mind. I see Pricewise have tipped him so it
may be a point shorter than expected but this horse has
a massive chance. His 2011 Welsh National win was so
impressive statistically he looked at Gold Cup horse at
that point. His Lexus chase win may have been a slow
time but thast wasn’t his fault as he oozed class. I have
never felt he was ground dependant and its clear he has
been trained like a Gold Cup winner and not overfaced
in unneccesary races and I get the impression his yard
have known for a while he could be up to this class.

SELECTION

LONG RUN 2/1
WHAT A FRIEND 25/1
SYNCHRONISED  10/1

I think one of these will win. LONG RUN is clearly the
most likely winner but he’s short and with 3 shortlisted
staking becomes a problem. There is a market which is
“without the two favourites” Long Run and Kauto Star
and I was tempted by WHAT A FRIEND each way in
that market around 10/1. Thats tempting and I have a
small bet on that myself but for several weeks now I’ve
been very keen on SYNCHRONISED and he is my bet.

SYNCHRONISED 10/1

Nb blog comment:  10/1 now gone but was about earlier when full members got this.

9/1 available at Ladbrokess jamesbet365

 

PS Chelt Deal offer available for the rest of this week

see http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

 

 

 

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Posted under Major Horse Races