Cheltenham – Arkle RSA Chase and Gold Cup

Today I am just quickly posting up a quick copy and paste
extract from our more comprehensive full member
message today. This is from the Future Betting Angles
message subsection.

This FBA section is a little regular extra for members
here that comes in addition to the daily racing analysis.
As the name implies this bit is focused on future
ante post racing.
Several Cheltenham Festival races get a mention.

Guy here is also doing a lot of Grand National
profiling research at the minute for full members
but I ducked posting that here as it makes less sense
to see just one day of it in isolation.

========================================================






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


The Saturday and Sundays cards
Look ridiculously vibrant + classy

I made the point the other day
The midweek cards are rubbish
The quality pushed to Saturday
It comes at you so thick and fast
Leaving little time to consider it
That is designed and deliberate

If you look at Oddschecker site
And the Ante Post Racing page
The markets open this weekend
This simply makes your jaw drop

Some of the weekend meetings
Will be dependent on the weather
Leopardstown has a 2 day fixture
Top class full of Cheltenham horses
This meeting is far from being safe
They have a foul weather forecast

Many horses running this weekend
Are having final Cheltenham preps

Buveau D'Air should be one of them
He will be long odds on at Sandown
But that meeting could be in doubt
If we lose meetings at the weekend
Many horses just like Buveau D'Air
Will miss their Cheltenham prep runs




Cheltenham Festival

Tomorrow entries are published
On the following Festival races

Supreme Novice Hurdle - 99 entered
Ballymore Novice Hurdle -139 entered
Triumph Hurdle - 59 entered
Albert Bartlet - 107 entered


Pricewise

Recently previews some races
These are their idea of the best bets

Rsa Chase
Topofthegame
1pt win at 8-1

Arkle Chase
Le Richebourg
1pt win at 7-1


The last time I did the Arkle Chase
LE RICHEBOURG was my provisional selection
I would agree with Pricewise here


RSA Chase

3/1Santini 9/2 Delta Work 7/1 Topofthegame
14/1 Vindication 16/1 OKCorral 20/1 On The Blind Side
25/1 Mortal 25/1 Champagne Classic

Paul Kealy in the Racing Post Weekender
Has also covered this race this week
Like Pricewise he selects Topofthegame

TOP OF THE GAME may look obvious
Has a chance but I still prefer others

There are now 41 days to Cheltenham
TOP OF THE GAME has not won a chase
He has failed in all 3 of his chases so far
So unless he runs quickly and he wins
Then he will be a maiden over fences

If as expected he does not run
Then he faces another problem
TOP OF THE GAME has 2 runs this season

Look at the last 19 renewals
18 of the previous 19 winners
Had at least 3 runs this season
TOP OF THE GAME does not match this

SANTINI has the same problem
DELTA WORK has 3 runs this season
Although as a 6yo he is not the best age

Assuming none of these will run again
The decision may be a statistical trade off
Will DELTA ROCKS extra run this season
Compensate for him being a 6yo
When his two market rivals
Santini and Top Of The Game
Have raced just twice this season
When just 1 of the last 9 winners did so
There could be other options available
The last time I looked at this race
I liked SANTINI and DELTA WORK best
Would be happy to bet both as a pair
In two each way doubles with something



Cheltenham Gold Cup

Stuart Riley in The Racing Post
Did a piece recent about Native River

His argument
Native River is not a likely winner
As Gold Cup winners don't win again
He says the last to do it Best Mate 2002
He states just 4 managed this in 50 years
There is some merit in what he says

NATIVE RIVER is around 13/2 on Betfair
I have already backed him as a saver bet
I'm happy with that position right now
Have the option to upgraded him to a bet
Have the option to choose something else

Unless the ground is really soft
I probably will choose something else
Although "Good Ground" is unlikely
It could happen if it dries out that week
He has never won a chase outside soft

There just feels like this is a year
Where we could get quite a big field
There are a lot of improvers in there
NATIVE RIVERS win in the 2018 Gold Cup
Was a slog on very bad ground
If conditions are different this year
He may find some have overtaken him

The Previous 22 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

12 9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

NATIVE RIVER has 15 Chase runs

21 of the last 23 Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs
So he will not be the snuggest fit

Staying with last years race

ROAD TO RESPECT was 4th

I gave him every chance in 2018
But did not select him  for 1 reason
I was concerned about his stamina
He was beaten 12 lengths on soft

If the ground is faster this season
I could easily go with him this year

I have read a few arguments for him
People that I quietly follow on twitter
That I think can teach me something
One person I follow is all over him

There is 1 complication

ROAD TO RESPECT runs Sunday
Favourite for the Irish Gold Cup
We don't know if the meeting will be on
If it is and he wins he will half in price
If it is and he loses he will appeal less

Right now he's certainly on my shortlist



Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 31, 2019

Tags: , , ,

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2018 – Initial Thoughts

Posted up below are some initial thoughts on the 2018 Cheltenham Gold Cup.

They were sent to full members as part of our Future Betting Angles sub section on March the 4th.

This is early thought stuff from Guy.

More information will have slotted into place by the day of the race itself.

– Who is definitely running?

– What will the going be?

– What are the morning odds on offer?

– Where is the value?

 

We will post up his day of race final conclusion here on this blog too.

Guy has a strong long term profit record in the race as you can judge at this link

Cheltenham Gold Cup Free Tip

 

Free feel to follow on twitter as we will tweet when his day of race analysis is up here for you.

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup – Thoughts From March 4th

Might Bite (4) Native River (13/2) Sizing John (7)
Our Duke (9) Killultagh Vic (10) Road To Respect (10)
Definitly Red (20) Total Recall (20)Edwulf (25)
Minella Rocco (25) Cue Card (33) Djakadam (33)
Outlander (33) Anibale Fly (40) Bachasson (40)
Double Shuffle (40) Tea For Two (66) Saphir Du Rheu (100)

Could this be a Soft Ground Gold Cup ?
Only 2 of the last 20 were run on soft/heavy

What effect will that have ?

MIGHT BITE’s may not want it soft
As his stamina will be tested more
His Sire is Scorpion
Scorpions runners in Class 4 or higher
Have yet to win any race past 3m 1f

NATIVE RIVER has just 1 run this season
That is not a good sign statistically
Soft ground could compound that
SAPHIR DU RHEU has the same problem

DJAKADAM has 18 Chase runs
Thats too exposed these days
Has he not had his chance ?
His sire has not bred a winner
On softer ground in Class 2 +beyond 3m 1f

OUR DUKE has a 27 day absence
Cheltenham Gold Cup since 1997
Horses running in the last 32 days
Have a 0-62 record in the last 21 years
OUR DUKE will fail this 0-62 record
Has his last run left it’s mark ?
He also comes from a 2m 4f race
The only horses that managed that
Were 9 year olds and he is younger
He also has no Cheltenham form

We know that the past 7yo winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
I would be worried about a 7 year old
If having just 1-2 runs this season
And if the ground is softer than usual
That could well hurt BACHASSON

SIZING JOHN won this last year
But he has raced just twice this season
He has now had 13 Chase starts
Thats more than any past winner
Who had under 3 runs this season
He ran badly last time as well
And it is not easy to retain your title
His Breeding stats are weaker on soft
Horses sired by Midnight Legend
Soft and heavy ground
Class 2 grade and higher
Have a 0-19 record over 3m 2f +

TOTAL RECALL has breeding issues
Horses sired by Westerner
3m 2f or more
Good to soft or worse
Class 2 or higher
Return a 0-23 record
He also comes from a hurdle race
None have done that in decades
And he has no Grade 1 winning form

KILLULTAGH VIC is inexperienced
The last 21 winners had the following chase runs
18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
He only has 3 Chase starts
The 2016 winners managed that
But he had more runs that season
And did not come here after a fall

ANIBALE FLY 33/1 fell last time
Hardly the best preparation
Neither trainer or sire look welcoming
Stamina has to be proven as well
The last 16 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn’t

 
 
If we take out the rank outsiders
Available at 100/1 and more on Betfair
We are left with the following horses

 

Potential Shock Winners

MINELLA ROCCO 33/1
EDWULF 25/1
ROAD TO RESPECT 10/1
DEFINITELY RED 20/1
DOUBLE SHUFFLE 40/1

 

MINELLA ROCCO 33/1

Horrible trainer to trust
But you can trust him in this race
He was 2nd last year after all
You have to see him as a spring horse
My worry is that on soft or heavy
His Racing Post Ratings drop badly
The better the ground the better his chance
And he has yet to win a Grade 1

 
EDWULF 25/1

Surely his last run suggests
That his injury last year is overcome
I fancied him big time at Cheltenham
May have won without breaking down
Just imagine if he had won that race
Would he not be half the price than he is

 
ROAD TO RESPECT 10/1

I like 10 chase runs and much about him
His last 2 runs were career bests
Is he bred to win a Gold Cup though
Sire was a 12f Flat horse after all
But positives far outweigh negatives

 
DEFINITELY RED 20/1

Unfashionable but solid
Consider his Cotswold Chase win
His Racing Post Rating was 172 that day
When Sizing John won the 2017 Gold Cup
His Racing Post Rating was only 171
That surely gets him shortlisted
If he stays no shock if he won
He has not yet won a Grade 1 though
Been a long time since a winner didn’t

 
DOUBLE SHUFFLE 40/1

Second in a King George is significant
What if he wasn’t flattered that day ?
Profile and sire stats are positive
He has placed at a Cheltenham Festival
Needed his first 2 runs this season
There are a lot worse bets at 40/1

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 6, 2018

Tags: ,

Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis 2017

Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis
Today’s Bet

Split Stake Bet
to a £10 total nominal stake.

Cheltenham 3.30

Gold Cup

£5.00 Win OUTLANDER 11/1

£3.00 Win DJAKADAM 100/30

£2.00 Win NATIVE RIVER 9/2

 
I like this strategy
I think Djakadam will win
But the value has gone now
OUTLANDER has the best profile
Gordon Elliots is on record as saying
He is not in the same league as Don Cossack
That has helped the price a lot
He may be right
But he may not need to be good enough

I have “Bought” my dangers out of the race
This means we are on OUTLANDER at 6/1
With cash back if Djakadam or Native River wins
Very optimistic OUTLANDER can beat the rest
Cue Card has some strong statistics against him
Sizing Europe has to prove stamina
He is only 6 years 10 months old and not a 7yo
Which is a problem also facing Native River

The open issue I can not nail
Is we have horses 6 years and 10 months old
Who come here with recent races
We have horses aged 8 and 9
Who come here with longer absences

Which of these groups are more suitable
Will probably hold the key to the race
Statistically there is no clear cut answer
But I know many recent renewals
Went to 9 year olds with very similar absences
To the one that OUTLANDER has today
And I feel he is a pretty decent choice of bet
A bet I personally think is well staked and protected

 

 

Cheltenham 3.30

Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup
(Grade 1) (5yo+) 3m2f70y

10/3 Djakadam, 7/2 Cue Card, 7/2 Native River, 8/1 Outlander
8/1 Sizing John, 10/1 Empire Of Dirt, 12/1 More Of That
16/1 Champagne West, 20/1 Minella Rocco, 20/1 Bristol De Mai
50/1 Smad Place, 50/1 Tea For Two, 66/1 Saphir Du Rheu
66/1 Irish Cavalier
The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f

Horses with under 15 Chase runs are best
The more over that you have
The less your chance of winning

The last 21 winners had the following chase runs
18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
Only 2 of the last 21 winners had over 13 Chase starts
Kauto Star was one of those
Don Cossack also managed it last year
That does not bother me
Last year was a small field full of non stayers
Most fancied runners had over 13 Chase runs last year
It was the weakest Gold Cup in years

Cue Card – 28 Chase runs
Irish Cavalier – 19 Chase runs
Smad Place – 16 Chase runs
Djakadam – 14 Chase runs
Bristol De Mai – 12 Chase runs
Saphir Du Rheu – 12 Chase runs
Champagne West – 11 Chase runs
Native River – 10 Chase runs
Outlander – 10 Chase runs
Sizing John – 9 Chase runs
Minella Rocco – 8 Chase runs
More Of That – 7 Chase runs
Tea For Two – 7 Chase runs

CUE CARD has problems
I do not like the fact he is 11 years old
Or that he also has 28 previous Chase starts
Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
All 41 that ran in the last 20 years lost.
Horses aged 10 or more are just 1-102 since 1992
Older horses like CUE CARD struggle in this race
So to do horses with over 13 Chase starrs
CUE CARD with 28 chase runs is too exposed
There is a Breeding angle against him too
CUE CARD is sired by King’s Theatre
If you look at the sires Grade 1 -2 winners
None have won beyond 3m 1f yet
CUE CARD is opposed

Ignore the other horses with over 15 Chases
IRISH CAVALIER does not look good enough
SMAD PLACE has twice failed in this race
SMAD PLACE is 0-12 in Grade 1 races now
Very hard to see some of these being good enough
SAPHIR DU RHEU is rated some way behind the best
He may not stay this far anyway
TEA FOR TWO is talented but miles behind on form
This track hardly seems likely to improve him

MINELLA ROCCO comes here Fell & Unseated
Hardly a Gold Cup winning profile
Because of falling early on last time
He has had just over 2 races this season
Since 1982 there have been 5 winners aged 7
These 5 winners ran 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
MINELLA ROCCO has fewer than all of them
That leaves him short of all recent 7yo winners
That’s why I can’t commit to him

CHAMPAGNE WEST has plenty to prove
He is not proven over 3m or more in Graded Class
His sire Westerner does not inspire me much
Horses sired by Westerner
Running in Class 2 or higher
Running over 3m 2f or more
Have a 0-21 record so far
CHAMPAGNE WEST may not stay

BRISTOL DE MAI is a 6 year old
In fact he is only 5 years 10 months old
That has to be a chilling thought
When Long Run won this as a 6 year old
He did so with an official rating of 179
BRISTOL DE MAI is only rated 154
I will be surprised if he has enough to win

MORE OF THAT has had a disappoiting season
Probably does not matter given his trainer
He was a beaten favourite in last years RSA Chase
No surprised there given he failed multiple angles then
My biggest worry is that he is sired by Beneficial
Not a sire I could trust in Grade 1 races over 3m 2f
MORE OF THAT is still only rated 157
And comes here unseating his rider last time
But I suppose he is the least experienced chaser
He has more scope than Most
He is a Cheltenham Festival winner over hurdles
And a Career best today is highly likely
Bt I think he falls short on a few things
His Jockey is 1-102 at the festival
His Jockey is 0-45 in Chases at the festival

 

 
Shortlist

SIZING JOHN
NATIVE RIVER
DJAKADAM
OUTLANDER

 

 
SIZING JOHN has to prove his stamina
Go back a year and he was running over 2 miles
One of my biggest problem with him
Is that he has only raced once over 3 miles
I may be wrong but I see that as a problem
His Sire has not had a Graded winner over this far
If he stays he is a player but I have my doubts
He is not the biggest of horses either

NATIVE RIVER has had a great year
Won a Hennessy a Welsh National and Denman Chase
I suppose if you nit pick a bit you find some issues
I think he has to be part of the staking plan
But I don’t think he is without criticism

DJAKADAM has 14 Chase runs
He is within the acceptable range for this race
DJAKADAM was runner up in 2016 and 2015
Both years he raced just twice during that season
This year he has also had just 2 prep runs
I would have liked more to be honest
But it has been done and by 8 year olds
And you can argue this is an easier race this year
What swings it for me is last years race
DJAKADAM was only a 7 year old last year
We know all past 7yo winners of this race since 1982
Had raced 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
DJAKADAM last year had under 2 warm up races
He had 1 proper race and fell at the 10th in his prep run
That Fall caused him to suffer an interrupted preparation
DJAKADAM did a Racing Post Rating of 177 last year
He did that in this race when underraced as a 7yo
With an interrupted preparation as well
When he was second in the 2015 renewal
He was technically only 5 years and 10 months
And short of races as well that season
The more I think about him I must upgrade him

OUTLANDER has a nice profile
I don’t think we can underestimate him
Last time out on Racing Post Ratings
OUTLANDER produced a career best 170 run
He has to prove he stays this far
His sire has a Grade 1 winner over 3m
None in this class over further though
But that is not to say he can not stay
And his Numbers are showing consistent improvement
For me he must be part of the staking plan
He is 11/1 and coming off a career best run
Having won a recognised trial race easily

Look at the Ages on the shortlist

SIZING JOHN – 7 year old
NATIVE RIVER – 7 year old
DJAKADAM 8 year old
OUTLANDER 9 year old

This may be relevant

7 year olds have not won for 10 years now
All 17 that tried were beaten since then
Technically if we look at foaling dates

NATIVE RIVER is not yet a 7 year old
SIZING JOHN is not yet a 7 year old
Neither have yet reached their 7th birthday

That pushes me more towards the older pair
DJAKADAM and OUTLANDER

OUTLANDER is 9 years old
He has an absence
If I look at 9 year olds
Absent more than 46 days
Starting under 20/1
Coming from 3m or shorter
Coming from a PatteRn race
I find a 5-13 record
They won in the following years
1999 2004 2009 2010 2012 2016
OUTLANDER must have a serious chance

Gun to my head
I think DJAKADAM will probably win
But too many people think the saver
The value has been sucked out of his price

At the prices I think this is a decent bet
We Buy NATIVE RIVER out of the race
We Buy DJAKADAM out of the race

Leaving OUTLANDER with a good profile
And a Career best last time out
To beat a handful of dangers all with flaws
Selection

£5.00 Win OUTLANDER 11/1

£3.00 Win DJAKADAM 100/30

£2.00 Win NATIVE RIVER 9/2

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 17, 2017

Tags:

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip 2016

Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis

As past promised Guy’s Cheltenham Gold Cup thoughts
are copied below for you.

He has a very good record in this race as you can see

2015 – Holywell placed at 12/1 & SamWinner – Lost
2014 – On His Own ew @ 22/1 2nd by a nose
2014 – Last Installment @ 7/1 Lost
2013 – Long Run ew @ 5/1 Placed
2012 – Synchronised WON 10/1
2011 – Long Run WON 5/1
2010 – Imperial Commander WON 12/1

2009 – Albertas Run Lost 14/1
2008 – Denman WON 9/4
2007 – No Bet
2006 – Hedgehunter 2nd 20/1 – Forget The Past
3rd 9/1

So as you can see losing years as well as winning ones but

the net big picture is very positive.

Fingers crossed for a good result today
but win lose or draw you can see you are fishing
in what has been a productive pool.

Over to Guy

========================================

Cheltenham 3.30

£8 Win Don Poli 5/1
£2 Saver Cue Card 4/1

We have a Great Gold Cup record
To be perfectly honest
I did this race a few days ago
I was dying to go with Road to Riches
And have a saver on Don Poli
But that horse ran in the Ryanair
So I am promoting Don Poli to selection
For me he is the Natural Gold Cup winner
Nothing else can win this race on paper
But as you know they don’t run on paper
There are factors I can not control here
Not least Ground and Tactics
And how this may help the non stayers
So rather than Go each way
Which I normally would and probably should
I am going with a Saver
And betting Don Poli as a win bet

Cheltenham 3.30

Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1)

11/4 Don Cossack, 7/2 Djakadam, 4/1 Cue Card
9/2 Don Poli, 9/1 Road To Riches, 9/1 Smad Place
25/1 Carlingford Lough, 50/1 O´faolains Boy
66/1 Irish Cavalier, 66/1 On His Own.

The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
I like lightly raced horses in this race
I want a horse that has roughly 5-14 Chase runs
The last 20 winners had the following chase runs

3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
Only Kauto Star has won with more than 13 Chases

This is a problem for the following horses

On His Own – 27 Chase runs
Cue Card – 21 Chase runs
Carlingford Lough – 20 Chase runs
Don Cossack – 18 Chase run
Sir Des Champs – 15 Chase runs

Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
All 40 that ran in the last 19 years lost.
ON HIS OWN is rejected aged 12

Horses aged 10 do not have a great record either
Horses aged 10 + have a 1-96 record since 1992

CARLINGFORD LOUGH is 10 years old
He is sired by King’s Theatre
This sire has bred 98 Graded winners
Those that ran beyond 3m 2f were 0-48
I failed him in last years race for the same reason
I don’t think he stayed then or will today

CUE CARD has exactly the same problem
He is also 10 and we know these underperform
But CUE CARD is also by King’s Theatre
This sire has bred 98 Graded winners
Those that ran beyond 3m 2f were 0-48

IRISH CAVALIER is not good enough
O´FAOLAINS BOY is impossible to fancy

SMAD PLACE has had a great season
He has won the Hennessy and was 4th in the King George
I opposed him in this race last year
He was well beaten but he is a better horse now
SMAD PLACE started life on the flat albeit abroad
No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat
I also find him on the exposed side with 28 Chase runs
Having so many hurdle runs (14) is also a bad sign
I know he has won a Hennessy
But I don’t think he stays the Gold Cup distance
SMAD PLACE is also 0-12 in Grade 1 races
I don’t think he has the stamina in this class

DJAKADAM was second in last years race
Obviously that earns him a lot of respect
He was a young horse last year
He doesn’t seem to have gone backwards
I do have one problem with him
Because he fell last time out at the 10th fence
He has only had 1 run and 10 fences this season
Since as far back as 1982
Only 5 horses aged 7 have won the Gold Cup
These 5 winners had 5 4 4 3 4 runs that season

7 Year Old Gold Cup winners since 1982

Kuato Star had 5 runs that season in 2007
War of Attrition had 4 runs that season in 2006
Kicking King had 4 runs that season in 2005
Best Mate had 3 runs that season in 2002
Imperial Call had 4 runs that season in 1996
DJAKADAM only has 1 run and 10 fences

DON COSSACK is clearly very talented
His 2 Festival appearances have yet to succeed
My main problem is he has 18 Chase starts
The last 20 winners had the following chase runs
3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
19 of the last 20 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
Only Kauto Star has won with more
That stops him being the selection
Far from convinced he fully stays this far
His sire has bred just 1 winner over 3m 2f or more
That winner came in a Class 7 race

Shortlist

DON POLI is a 7yo
He has 12 career starts 6 Chase runs and 3 this season
Look at Best Mate back in 2012
He had 12 career starts 6 Chase runs and 3 this season
DON POLI has exactly the same profile
Different types admittedly but a solid enough profile
Some argue he is too slow but I don’t by that
He’s won a RSA with the longest absence in 50 years
You can not pigeon hold a horse as quickly as that
Yes the drying ground could be an issue
Yes he could find himself a little outpaced at times
And I do have some reservations on that score
And Bryan Cooper has chosen Don Cossack
It is for those reasons I am making him a win bet
Rather than an each way bet
Because of that I am having a saver
I don’t fancy CUE CARD much
But if DON POLI does disappoint
Then none of them are sure to stay
And the race has to be won by something

Selection

£8 Win DON POLI 5/1

£2 Saver Cue Card 4/1

========================================

 

Other Info

#1 – Note this advice above was from the full members "Profile
& Preview" section.

In short that is a race Guy examined but in the end decided
edge of value was not sufficient to meet his picky standards
for an official tip. If interested you can see longer term
profit chart for the stuff he does decide is an official tip.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/profit-chart.asp

#2 – Our Cheltenham sale page is still live if you are interested.
Forget about Cheltenham and it still offers a half price month
1 of full membership. It is a good opportunity to come in
and see how a long term profitable service works. See with
with your own eyes in real time etc. The super simple refund
guarantee gives you chance to examine and later change your
mind. The offer page will come down after the weekend when
I get back to work on Monday.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

#3 – The Saturday Day Pass is available in its usual spot
if you are more interested in Saturday Only

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

Note the 11am Saturday morning cut off time for the Day Pass.

 

Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 18, 2016

Tags: ,

Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Cheltenham 3.20

LAST INSTALMENT 7/1 Win Bet

ON HIS OWN 22/1 Each Way

The main issues are well documented. I feel
LAST INSTALMENT has every chance and has
one of the best two profiles. My each way bet
ON HIS OWN is obviously a hard case to make.
I think he is a crazy sort of price and although
many argue he fails trends it is not necessarily
the case. I think these 2 have serious chances.

 

Cheltenham 3.20

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

7/4 Bobs Worth, 5/2 Silviniaco Conti, 13/2 Last Instalment
8/1 Triolo D´alene, 14/1 The Giant Bolster 16/1 On His Own
25/1 Lord Windermere, 33/1 Teaforthree
40/1 Lyreen Legend, 50/1 Katenko, 66/1 Cloudy Too
66/1 Knockara Beau, 100/1 Houblon Des Obeaux.

* The Blue Riband event of the festival
* Lets get rid of the No Hopers
* Horses aged 11 and over have not won this race since 1969.
* KNOCKARA BEAU is too old and not good enough
* KATENKO and CLOUDY TOO are outclassed
* HOUBLON DES OBEAUX is not good enough
* TEAFORTHREE is out of his depth

* TRIOLO D´ALENE won the Hennessy last time out
* Bobs Worth did that recently but I can’t have him
* Bobs Worth was a Grade 1 Festival winner
* TRIOLO D´ALENE has never run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* His 2 previous runs here were heavy defeats
* TRIOLO D´ALENE is rated only 158 far too low

* LORD WINDERMERE and LYREEN LEGEND are connected
* They were 1st and 2nd in last years RSA Chase at the festival

* LYREEN LEGEND was 2nd in last years RSA Chase
* It would worry me he has won just 1 of 8 Chases
* He is rated lower than any recent Gold Cup winner
* The last 23 winners had this in common
* They had a Racing Post Rating of 155 + last time out
* LYREEN LEGEND only managed a rating of 154
* After 18 career starts 154 is his highest Racing Post Rating
* Every other horse has bettered that rating before
* That amongst other things must rule him out

* LORD WINDERMERE has a similar profile and problem
* He is rated lower than any recent Gold Cup winner
* The last 23 winners had this in common
* They had a Racing Post Rating of 155 + last time out
* After 15 career starts 157 is his highest Racing Post Rating
* Almost every other horse has bettered that rating before
* LORD WINDERMERE only managed a rating of 157

Now if LYREEN LEGEND or LORD WINDERMERE win this
race at a big price it will be down to the fact the course
ground or time of year brings them alive but I suspect it
was a very poor RSA Chase last year which was openly
said at the time and these two dominated a bad renewal
and it is hard to make a case for them when they have a
set of numbers that just look so far behind the standard.

SILVINIACO CONTI

I don’t doubt he has enough ability to win this race but
I feel he is too short around 100/30 for a horse that may
not stay. When he fell in last year’s race some argue he
wasn’t beaten but I doubt he would have stayed on well
enough to win. I question his stamina. I don’t like horses
that are undersized like him. He isn’t a big horse and he
is not proven yet in a field as big as this. Statistical he’s
fine but I don’t like his size and question his stamina as
he is taking on some big Irish improvers with substance.

BOBS WORTH

Little doubt he’s top class and won this last year and was
always going to have a good profile this year. He has got
a massive chance but not really for me. I wouldn’t want to
ask him to win this again. It was a gruelling race last year
and he was in trouble at one stage before staying on late.
On this ground he could find himself in more trouble and
having to come from off the pace. We can’t be sure last
years race has not left it’s mark. Last season he recorded
Racing Post Ratings of 167 174 and 181 yet this year from
two runs he has clocked just 142 and 163 and there is the
possibility he won’t recapture last years form. He is still
the most likely winner but at the price I am against him.
He touched 10/1 in running last year and on fast ground
he could easily do the same this year. I just don’t like the
short price when he will be carrying battle scars this year.

 

THE GIANT BOLSTER

* THE GIANT BOLSTER now has 19 previous chase runs
* Recent Gold Cup winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 8 9 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 Chases
* He is now out of range of the ideal profile
* 16 of the last 17 winners had 13 or fewer Chase runs
* He was 4th last year and 2nd in 2012 though
* He Loves the track and has plenty of class
* I did see him as a potential each way bet at 16/1
* He wants fast ground and a small field
* He should love the ground but the field size worries me
* 14 runners is not as small as I’d like
* I think he is at the limit of his stamina
* He has won over 3m 1f 100 yds before
* His Sire has not yet bred a winner winning over further
* You couldn’t rule him out but maybe just falls short

ON HIS OWN

* This horse is a 10 year old
* Horses aged 10 or more have a 1-93 record since 1993
* It’s not the best of records but don’t worry about that
* He is a late foal and actually not quite 10 yet in real terms
* ON HIS OWN does have only 12 career starts though
* 16 of the last 17 winners had 13 or fewer Chase runs
* That goes a log way to compensating for his age
* He also didn’t start racing until he was almost 6 years old
* I have mentioned I think he will win the Grand National
* He has every right to run here after a brilliant last win
* His last 2 runs show significant improvement
* There is a case that he jumps a bit right handed
* He has won left handed three times before though
* The track is an open question mark
* Ignore his poor run here back in 2011 over 4m
* He had no chance in that race and it’s irrelevant
* He was 4th in a Neptune Hurdle which is encouraging
* Ability wise I think he has everything he needs to win
* Just not sure about whether he can deliver here or not

LAST INSTALMENT

* He is a lightly raced improver
* He won the Irish Hennessy last time
* He has won 5 of his 6 Chase runs so far
* Recent Gold Cup winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 8 9 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 Chases
* LAST INSTALMENT has 6 runs and I quite like that
* One of his problem is No form at Cheltenham
* That is a disadvantage he has to overcome
* 13 of the last 16 winners placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
* The other is the ground as most of his form’s on soft
* Said to have fragile tendons it would be a worry
* That said the new course is slower than the old course
* He has a very appealing profile and the potential to win

 

Selections

LAST INSTALMENT 7/1 Win Bet

ON HIS OWN 22/1 Each Way

For Live best odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2014-03-14/cheltenham/15-20/betting/

 

 

 

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