Cheltenham Gold Cup 2018 – Initial Thoughts

Posted up below are some initial thoughts on the 2018 Cheltenham Gold Cup.

They were sent to full members as part of our Future Betting Angles sub section on March the 4th.

This is early thought stuff from Guy.

More information will have slotted into place by the day of the race itself.

- Who is definitely running?

- What will the going be?

- What are the morning odds on offer?

- Where is the value?

 

We will post up his day of race final conclusion here on this blog too.

Guy has a strong long term profit record in the race as you can judge at this link

Cheltenham Gold Cup Free Tip

 

Free feel to follow on twitter as we will tweet when his day of race analysis is up here for you.

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup – Thoughts From March 4th

Might Bite (4) Native River (13/2) Sizing John (7)
Our Duke (9) Killultagh Vic (10) Road To Respect (10)
Definitly Red (20) Total Recall (20)Edwulf (25)
Minella Rocco (25) Cue Card (33) Djakadam (33)
Outlander (33) Anibale Fly (40) Bachasson (40)
Double Shuffle (40) Tea For Two (66) Saphir Du Rheu (100)

Could this be a Soft Ground Gold Cup ?
Only 2 of the last 20 were run on soft/heavy

What effect will that have ?

MIGHT BITE’s may not want it soft
As his stamina will be tested more
His Sire is Scorpion
Scorpions runners in Class 4 or higher
Have yet to win any race past 3m 1f

NATIVE RIVER has just 1 run this season
That is not a good sign statistically
Soft ground could compound that
SAPHIR DU RHEU has the same problem

DJAKADAM has 18 Chase runs
Thats too exposed these days
Has he not had his chance ?
His sire has not bred a winner
On softer ground in Class 2 +beyond 3m 1f

OUR DUKE has a 27 day absence
Cheltenham Gold Cup since 1997
Horses running in the last 32 days
Have a 0-62 record in the last 21 years
OUR DUKE will fail this 0-62 record
Has his last run left it’s mark ?
He also comes from a 2m 4f race
The only horses that managed that
Were 9 year olds and he is younger
He also has no Cheltenham form

We know that the past 7yo winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
I would be worried about a 7 year old
If having just 1-2 runs this season
And if the ground is softer than usual
That could well hurt BACHASSON

SIZING JOHN won this last year
But he has raced just twice this season
He has now had 13 Chase starts
Thats more than any past winner
Who had under 3 runs this season
He ran badly last time as well
And it is not easy to retain your title
His Breeding stats are weaker on soft
Horses sired by Midnight Legend
Soft and heavy ground
Class 2 grade and higher
Have a 0-19 record over 3m 2f +

TOTAL RECALL has breeding issues
Horses sired by Westerner
3m 2f or more
Good to soft or worse
Class 2 or higher
Return a 0-23 record
He also comes from a hurdle race
None have done that in decades
And he has no Grade 1 winning form

KILLULTAGH VIC is inexperienced
The last 21 winners had the following chase runs
18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
He only has 3 Chase starts
The 2016 winners managed that
But he had more runs that season
And did not come here after a fall

ANIBALE FLY 33/1 fell last time
Hardly the best preparation
Neither trainer or sire look welcoming
Stamina has to be proven as well
The last 16 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn’t

 
 
If we take out the rank outsiders
Available at 100/1 and more on Betfair
We are left with the following horses

 

Potential Shock Winners

MINELLA ROCCO 33/1
EDWULF 25/1
ROAD TO RESPECT 10/1
DEFINITELY RED 20/1
DOUBLE SHUFFLE 40/1

 

MINELLA ROCCO 33/1

Horrible trainer to trust
But you can trust him in this race
He was 2nd last year after all
You have to see him as a spring horse
My worry is that on soft or heavy
His Racing Post Ratings drop badly
The better the ground the better his chance
And he has yet to win a Grade 1

 
EDWULF 25/1

Surely his last run suggests
That his injury last year is overcome
I fancied him big time at Cheltenham
May have won without breaking down
Just imagine if he had won that race
Would he not be half the price than he is

 
ROAD TO RESPECT 10/1

I like 10 chase runs and much about him
His last 2 runs were career bests
Is he bred to win a Gold Cup though
Sire was a 12f Flat horse after all
But positives far outweigh negatives

 
DEFINITELY RED 20/1

Unfashionable but solid
Consider his Cotswold Chase win
His Racing Post Rating was 172 that day
When Sizing John won the 2017 Gold Cup
His Racing Post Rating was only 171
That surely gets him shortlisted
If he stays no shock if he won
He has not yet won a Grade 1 though
Been a long time since a winner didn’t

 
DOUBLE SHUFFLE 40/1

Second in a King George is significant
What if he wasn’t flattered that day ?
Profile and sire stats are positive
He has placed at a Cheltenham Festival
Needed his first 2 runs this season
There are a lot worse bets at 40/1

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 6, 2018

Tags: ,

Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis 2017

Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis
Today’s Bet

Split Stake Bet
to a £10 total nominal stake.

Cheltenham 3.30

Gold Cup

£5.00 Win OUTLANDER 11/1

£3.00 Win DJAKADAM 100/30

£2.00 Win NATIVE RIVER 9/2

 
I like this strategy
I think Djakadam will win
But the value has gone now
OUTLANDER has the best profile
Gordon Elliots is on record as saying
He is not in the same league as Don Cossack
That has helped the price a lot
He may be right
But he may not need to be good enough

I have “Bought” my dangers out of the race
This means we are on OUTLANDER at 6/1
With cash back if Djakadam or Native River wins
Very optimistic OUTLANDER can beat the rest
Cue Card has some strong statistics against him
Sizing Europe has to prove stamina
He is only 6 years 10 months old and not a 7yo
Which is a problem also facing Native River

The open issue I can not nail
Is we have horses 6 years and 10 months old
Who come here with recent races
We have horses aged 8 and 9
Who come here with longer absences

Which of these groups are more suitable
Will probably hold the key to the race
Statistically there is no clear cut answer
But I know many recent renewals
Went to 9 year olds with very similar absences
To the one that OUTLANDER has today
And I feel he is a pretty decent choice of bet
A bet I personally think is well staked and protected

 

 

Cheltenham 3.30

Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup
(Grade 1) (5yo+) 3m2f70y

10/3 Djakadam, 7/2 Cue Card, 7/2 Native River, 8/1 Outlander
8/1 Sizing John, 10/1 Empire Of Dirt, 12/1 More Of That
16/1 Champagne West, 20/1 Minella Rocco, 20/1 Bristol De Mai
50/1 Smad Place, 50/1 Tea For Two, 66/1 Saphir Du Rheu
66/1 Irish Cavalier
The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f

Horses with under 15 Chase runs are best
The more over that you have
The less your chance of winning

The last 21 winners had the following chase runs
18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
Only 2 of the last 21 winners had over 13 Chase starts
Kauto Star was one of those
Don Cossack also managed it last year
That does not bother me
Last year was a small field full of non stayers
Most fancied runners had over 13 Chase runs last year
It was the weakest Gold Cup in years

Cue Card – 28 Chase runs
Irish Cavalier – 19 Chase runs
Smad Place – 16 Chase runs
Djakadam – 14 Chase runs
Bristol De Mai – 12 Chase runs
Saphir Du Rheu – 12 Chase runs
Champagne West – 11 Chase runs
Native River – 10 Chase runs
Outlander – 10 Chase runs
Sizing John – 9 Chase runs
Minella Rocco – 8 Chase runs
More Of That – 7 Chase runs
Tea For Two – 7 Chase runs

CUE CARD has problems
I do not like the fact he is 11 years old
Or that he also has 28 previous Chase starts
Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
All 41 that ran in the last 20 years lost.
Horses aged 10 or more are just 1-102 since 1992
Older horses like CUE CARD struggle in this race
So to do horses with over 13 Chase starrs
CUE CARD with 28 chase runs is too exposed
There is a Breeding angle against him too
CUE CARD is sired by King’s Theatre
If you look at the sires Grade 1 -2 winners
None have won beyond 3m 1f yet
CUE CARD is opposed

Ignore the other horses with over 15 Chases
IRISH CAVALIER does not look good enough
SMAD PLACE has twice failed in this race
SMAD PLACE is 0-12 in Grade 1 races now
Very hard to see some of these being good enough
SAPHIR DU RHEU is rated some way behind the best
He may not stay this far anyway
TEA FOR TWO is talented but miles behind on form
This track hardly seems likely to improve him

MINELLA ROCCO comes here Fell & Unseated
Hardly a Gold Cup winning profile
Because of falling early on last time
He has had just over 2 races this season
Since 1982 there have been 5 winners aged 7
These 5 winners ran 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
MINELLA ROCCO has fewer than all of them
That leaves him short of all recent 7yo winners
That’s why I can’t commit to him

CHAMPAGNE WEST has plenty to prove
He is not proven over 3m or more in Graded Class
His sire Westerner does not inspire me much
Horses sired by Westerner
Running in Class 2 or higher
Running over 3m 2f or more
Have a 0-21 record so far
CHAMPAGNE WEST may not stay

BRISTOL DE MAI is a 6 year old
In fact he is only 5 years 10 months old
That has to be a chilling thought
When Long Run won this as a 6 year old
He did so with an official rating of 179
BRISTOL DE MAI is only rated 154
I will be surprised if he has enough to win

MORE OF THAT has had a disappoiting season
Probably does not matter given his trainer
He was a beaten favourite in last years RSA Chase
No surprised there given he failed multiple angles then
My biggest worry is that he is sired by Beneficial
Not a sire I could trust in Grade 1 races over 3m 2f
MORE OF THAT is still only rated 157
And comes here unseating his rider last time
But I suppose he is the least experienced chaser
He has more scope than Most
He is a Cheltenham Festival winner over hurdles
And a Career best today is highly likely
Bt I think he falls short on a few things
His Jockey is 1-102 at the festival
His Jockey is 0-45 in Chases at the festival

 

 
Shortlist

SIZING JOHN
NATIVE RIVER
DJAKADAM
OUTLANDER

 

 
SIZING JOHN has to prove his stamina
Go back a year and he was running over 2 miles
One of my biggest problem with him
Is that he has only raced once over 3 miles
I may be wrong but I see that as a problem
His Sire has not had a Graded winner over this far
If he stays he is a player but I have my doubts
He is not the biggest of horses either

NATIVE RIVER has had a great year
Won a Hennessy a Welsh National and Denman Chase
I suppose if you nit pick a bit you find some issues
I think he has to be part of the staking plan
But I don’t think he is without criticism

DJAKADAM has 14 Chase runs
He is within the acceptable range for this race
DJAKADAM was runner up in 2016 and 2015
Both years he raced just twice during that season
This year he has also had just 2 prep runs
I would have liked more to be honest
But it has been done and by 8 year olds
And you can argue this is an easier race this year
What swings it for me is last years race
DJAKADAM was only a 7 year old last year
We know all past 7yo winners of this race since 1982
Had raced 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
DJAKADAM last year had under 2 warm up races
He had 1 proper race and fell at the 10th in his prep run
That Fall caused him to suffer an interrupted preparation
DJAKADAM did a Racing Post Rating of 177 last year
He did that in this race when underraced as a 7yo
With an interrupted preparation as well
When he was second in the 2015 renewal
He was technically only 5 years and 10 months
And short of races as well that season
The more I think about him I must upgrade him

OUTLANDER has a nice profile
I don’t think we can underestimate him
Last time out on Racing Post Ratings
OUTLANDER produced a career best 170 run
He has to prove he stays this far
His sire has a Grade 1 winner over 3m
None in this class over further though
But that is not to say he can not stay
And his Numbers are showing consistent improvement
For me he must be part of the staking plan
He is 11/1 and coming off a career best run
Having won a recognised trial race easily

Look at the Ages on the shortlist

SIZING JOHN – 7 year old
NATIVE RIVER – 7 year old
DJAKADAM 8 year old
OUTLANDER 9 year old

This may be relevant

7 year olds have not won for 10 years now
All 17 that tried were beaten since then
Technically if we look at foaling dates

NATIVE RIVER is not yet a 7 year old
SIZING JOHN is not yet a 7 year old
Neither have yet reached their 7th birthday

That pushes me more towards the older pair
DJAKADAM and OUTLANDER

OUTLANDER is 9 years old
He has an absence
If I look at 9 year olds
Absent more than 46 days
Starting under 20/1
Coming from 3m or shorter
Coming from a PatteRn race
I find a 5-13 record
They won in the following years
1999 2004 2009 2010 2012 2016
OUTLANDER must have a serious chance

Gun to my head
I think DJAKADAM will probably win
But too many people think the saver
The value has been sucked out of his price

At the prices I think this is a decent bet
We Buy NATIVE RIVER out of the race
We Buy DJAKADAM out of the race

Leaving OUTLANDER with a good profile
And a Career best last time out
To beat a handful of dangers all with flaws
Selection

£5.00 Win OUTLANDER 11/1

£3.00 Win DJAKADAM 100/30

£2.00 Win NATIVE RIVER 9/2

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 17, 2017

Tags:

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip 2016

Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis

As past promised Guy’s Cheltenham Gold Cup thoughts
are copied below for you.

He has a very good record in this race as you can see

2015 – Holywell placed at 12/1 & SamWinner – Lost
2014 – On His Own ew @ 22/1 2nd by a nose
2014 – Last Installment @ 7/1 Lost
2013 – Long Run ew @ 5/1 Placed
2012 – Synchronised WON 10/1
2011 – Long Run WON 5/1
2010 – Imperial Commander WON 12/1

2009 – Albertas Run Lost 14/1
2008 – Denman WON 9/4
2007 – No Bet
2006 – Hedgehunter 2nd 20/1 – Forget The Past
3rd 9/1

So as you can see losing years as well as winning ones but

the net big picture is very positive.

Fingers crossed for a good result today
but win lose or draw you can see you are fishing
in what has been a productive pool.

Over to Guy

========================================

Cheltenham 3.30

£8 Win Don Poli 5/1
£2 Saver Cue Card 4/1

We have a Great Gold Cup record
To be perfectly honest
I did this race a few days ago
I was dying to go with Road to Riches
And have a saver on Don Poli
But that horse ran in the Ryanair
So I am promoting Don Poli to selection
For me he is the Natural Gold Cup winner
Nothing else can win this race on paper
But as you know they don’t run on paper
There are factors I can not control here
Not least Ground and Tactics
And how this may help the non stayers
So rather than Go each way
Which I normally would and probably should
I am going with a Saver
And betting Don Poli as a win bet

Cheltenham 3.30

Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1)

11/4 Don Cossack, 7/2 Djakadam, 4/1 Cue Card
9/2 Don Poli, 9/1 Road To Riches, 9/1 Smad Place
25/1 Carlingford Lough, 50/1 O´faolains Boy
66/1 Irish Cavalier, 66/1 On His Own.

The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
I like lightly raced horses in this race
I want a horse that has roughly 5-14 Chase runs
The last 20 winners had the following chase runs

3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
Only Kauto Star has won with more than 13 Chases

This is a problem for the following horses

On His Own – 27 Chase runs
Cue Card – 21 Chase runs
Carlingford Lough – 20 Chase runs
Don Cossack – 18 Chase run
Sir Des Champs – 15 Chase runs

Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
All 40 that ran in the last 19 years lost.
ON HIS OWN is rejected aged 12

Horses aged 10 do not have a great record either
Horses aged 10 + have a 1-96 record since 1992

CARLINGFORD LOUGH is 10 years old
He is sired by King’s Theatre
This sire has bred 98 Graded winners
Those that ran beyond 3m 2f were 0-48
I failed him in last years race for the same reason
I don’t think he stayed then or will today

CUE CARD has exactly the same problem
He is also 10 and we know these underperform
But CUE CARD is also by King’s Theatre
This sire has bred 98 Graded winners
Those that ran beyond 3m 2f were 0-48

IRISH CAVALIER is not good enough
O´FAOLAINS BOY is impossible to fancy

SMAD PLACE has had a great season
He has won the Hennessy and was 4th in the King George
I opposed him in this race last year
He was well beaten but he is a better horse now
SMAD PLACE started life on the flat albeit abroad
No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat
I also find him on the exposed side with 28 Chase runs
Having so many hurdle runs (14) is also a bad sign
I know he has won a Hennessy
But I don’t think he stays the Gold Cup distance
SMAD PLACE is also 0-12 in Grade 1 races
I don’t think he has the stamina in this class

DJAKADAM was second in last years race
Obviously that earns him a lot of respect
He was a young horse last year
He doesn’t seem to have gone backwards
I do have one problem with him
Because he fell last time out at the 10th fence
He has only had 1 run and 10 fences this season
Since as far back as 1982
Only 5 horses aged 7 have won the Gold Cup
These 5 winners had 5 4 4 3 4 runs that season

7 Year Old Gold Cup winners since 1982

Kuato Star had 5 runs that season in 2007
War of Attrition had 4 runs that season in 2006
Kicking King had 4 runs that season in 2005
Best Mate had 3 runs that season in 2002
Imperial Call had 4 runs that season in 1996
DJAKADAM only has 1 run and 10 fences

DON COSSACK is clearly very talented
His 2 Festival appearances have yet to succeed
My main problem is he has 18 Chase starts
The last 20 winners had the following chase runs
3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
19 of the last 20 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
Only Kauto Star has won with more
That stops him being the selection
Far from convinced he fully stays this far
His sire has bred just 1 winner over 3m 2f or more
That winner came in a Class 7 race

Shortlist

DON POLI is a 7yo
He has 12 career starts 6 Chase runs and 3 this season
Look at Best Mate back in 2012
He had 12 career starts 6 Chase runs and 3 this season
DON POLI has exactly the same profile
Different types admittedly but a solid enough profile
Some argue he is too slow but I don’t by that
He’s won a RSA with the longest absence in 50 years
You can not pigeon hold a horse as quickly as that
Yes the drying ground could be an issue
Yes he could find himself a little outpaced at times
And I do have some reservations on that score
And Bryan Cooper has chosen Don Cossack
It is for those reasons I am making him a win bet
Rather than an each way bet
Because of that I am having a saver
I don’t fancy CUE CARD much
But if DON POLI does disappoint
Then none of them are sure to stay
And the race has to be won by something

Selection

£8 Win DON POLI 5/1

£2 Saver Cue Card 4/1

========================================

 

Other Info

#1 – Note this advice above was from the full members "Profile
& Preview" section.

In short that is a race Guy examined but in the end decided
edge of value was not sufficient to meet his picky standards
for an official tip. If interested you can see longer term
profit chart for the stuff he does decide is an official tip.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/profit-chart.asp

#2 – Our Cheltenham sale page is still live if you are interested.
Forget about Cheltenham and it still offers a half price month
1 of full membership. It is a good opportunity to come in
and see how a long term profitable service works. See with
with your own eyes in real time etc. The super simple refund
guarantee gives you chance to examine and later change your
mind. The offer page will come down after the weekend when
I get back to work on Monday.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

#3 – The Saturday Day Pass is available in its usual spot
if you are more interested in Saturday Only

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

Note the 11am Saturday morning cut off time for the Day Pass.

 

Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 18, 2016

Tags: ,

Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Cheltenham 3.20

LAST INSTALMENT 7/1 Win Bet

ON HIS OWN 22/1 Each Way

The main issues are well documented. I feel
LAST INSTALMENT has every chance and has
one of the best two profiles. My each way bet
ON HIS OWN is obviously a hard case to make.
I think he is a crazy sort of price and although
many argue he fails trends it is not necessarily
the case. I think these 2 have serious chances.

 

Cheltenham 3.20

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

7/4 Bobs Worth, 5/2 Silviniaco Conti, 13/2 Last Instalment
8/1 Triolo D´alene, 14/1 The Giant Bolster 16/1 On His Own
25/1 Lord Windermere, 33/1 Teaforthree
40/1 Lyreen Legend, 50/1 Katenko, 66/1 Cloudy Too
66/1 Knockara Beau, 100/1 Houblon Des Obeaux.

* The Blue Riband event of the festival
* Lets get rid of the No Hopers
* Horses aged 11 and over have not won this race since 1969.
* KNOCKARA BEAU is too old and not good enough
* KATENKO and CLOUDY TOO are outclassed
* HOUBLON DES OBEAUX is not good enough
* TEAFORTHREE is out of his depth

* TRIOLO D´ALENE won the Hennessy last time out
* Bobs Worth did that recently but I can’t have him
* Bobs Worth was a Grade 1 Festival winner
* TRIOLO D´ALENE has never run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* His 2 previous runs here were heavy defeats
* TRIOLO D´ALENE is rated only 158 far too low

* LORD WINDERMERE and LYREEN LEGEND are connected
* They were 1st and 2nd in last years RSA Chase at the festival

* LYREEN LEGEND was 2nd in last years RSA Chase
* It would worry me he has won just 1 of 8 Chases
* He is rated lower than any recent Gold Cup winner
* The last 23 winners had this in common
* They had a Racing Post Rating of 155 + last time out
* LYREEN LEGEND only managed a rating of 154
* After 18 career starts 154 is his highest Racing Post Rating
* Every other horse has bettered that rating before
* That amongst other things must rule him out

* LORD WINDERMERE has a similar profile and problem
* He is rated lower than any recent Gold Cup winner
* The last 23 winners had this in common
* They had a Racing Post Rating of 155 + last time out
* After 15 career starts 157 is his highest Racing Post Rating
* Almost every other horse has bettered that rating before
* LORD WINDERMERE only managed a rating of 157

Now if LYREEN LEGEND or LORD WINDERMERE win this
race at a big price it will be down to the fact the course
ground or time of year brings them alive but I suspect it
was a very poor RSA Chase last year which was openly
said at the time and these two dominated a bad renewal
and it is hard to make a case for them when they have a
set of numbers that just look so far behind the standard.

SILVINIACO CONTI

I don’t doubt he has enough ability to win this race but
I feel he is too short around 100/30 for a horse that may
not stay. When he fell in last year’s race some argue he
wasn’t beaten but I doubt he would have stayed on well
enough to win. I question his stamina. I don’t like horses
that are undersized like him. He isn’t a big horse and he
is not proven yet in a field as big as this. Statistical he’s
fine but I don’t like his size and question his stamina as
he is taking on some big Irish improvers with substance.

BOBS WORTH

Little doubt he’s top class and won this last year and was
always going to have a good profile this year. He has got
a massive chance but not really for me. I wouldn’t want to
ask him to win this again. It was a gruelling race last year
and he was in trouble at one stage before staying on late.
On this ground he could find himself in more trouble and
having to come from off the pace. We can’t be sure last
years race has not left it’s mark. Last season he recorded
Racing Post Ratings of 167 174 and 181 yet this year from
two runs he has clocked just 142 and 163 and there is the
possibility he won’t recapture last years form. He is still
the most likely winner but at the price I am against him.
He touched 10/1 in running last year and on fast ground
he could easily do the same this year. I just don’t like the
short price when he will be carrying battle scars this year.

 

THE GIANT BOLSTER

* THE GIANT BOLSTER now has 19 previous chase runs
* Recent Gold Cup winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 8 9 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 Chases
* He is now out of range of the ideal profile
* 16 of the last 17 winners had 13 or fewer Chase runs
* He was 4th last year and 2nd in 2012 though
* He Loves the track and has plenty of class
* I did see him as a potential each way bet at 16/1
* He wants fast ground and a small field
* He should love the ground but the field size worries me
* 14 runners is not as small as I’d like
* I think he is at the limit of his stamina
* He has won over 3m 1f 100 yds before
* His Sire has not yet bred a winner winning over further
* You couldn’t rule him out but maybe just falls short

ON HIS OWN

* This horse is a 10 year old
* Horses aged 10 or more have a 1-93 record since 1993
* It’s not the best of records but don’t worry about that
* He is a late foal and actually not quite 10 yet in real terms
* ON HIS OWN does have only 12 career starts though
* 16 of the last 17 winners had 13 or fewer Chase runs
* That goes a log way to compensating for his age
* He also didn’t start racing until he was almost 6 years old
* I have mentioned I think he will win the Grand National
* He has every right to run here after a brilliant last win
* His last 2 runs show significant improvement
* There is a case that he jumps a bit right handed
* He has won left handed three times before though
* The track is an open question mark
* Ignore his poor run here back in 2011 over 4m
* He had no chance in that race and it’s irrelevant
* He was 4th in a Neptune Hurdle which is encouraging
* Ability wise I think he has everything he needs to win
* Just not sure about whether he can deliver here or not

LAST INSTALMENT

* He is a lightly raced improver
* He won the Irish Hennessy last time
* He has won 5 of his 6 Chase runs so far
* Recent Gold Cup winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 8 9 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 Chases
* LAST INSTALMENT has 6 runs and I quite like that
* One of his problem is No form at Cheltenham
* That is a disadvantage he has to overcome
* 13 of the last 16 winners placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
* The other is the ground as most of his form’s on soft
* Said to have fragile tendons it would be a worry
* That said the new course is slower than the old course
* He has a very appealing profile and the potential to win

 

Selections

LAST INSTALMENT 7/1 Win Bet

ON HIS OWN 22/1 Each Way

For Live best odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2014-03-14/cheltenham/15-20/betting/

 

 

 

FREE £10 No Lose Bet On The Gold Cup
AND a £50 FREE BET From Betfair

( only for those with no Betfair account yet unfortunately )

If you were to force me to ditch all my bookie accounts bar one
then the one I would choose to hold on to would be Betfair.

Key reasons would be

- Typically higher odds than bookies on their Exchange
– Ability to lay as well as back
– Ability to lock in profits by trading

This offer applies to their newish sportsbook section
( a bit like a traditional bookmaker )

What I would do if I were you is use the offer on the sportsbook
today but then longer term move to using their Exchange
for the reasons outlined above.

See full details of how to bag this offer at this link

Betfair Offer

 

 

Our Cheltenham Deal

Our deal page is still live at

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

Whist being Cheltenham titled it is actually a full month of Full Membership at half price. The 14 day zero strings refund gives you plenty of time to test and kick the tryes fo the full memebr’s service.

I will keep it live till after the weekend then it is gone again till next year.

 

 

 

 

Saturday Day Pass

 

After the highs of Cheltenham we are back to the daily grind of finding edge for our clients in normal racing. For those of you who really only have time to ponder racing on a Saturday note that our dip in dip out as you choose Saturday Day Pass is now open.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass/

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip 2013

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

The final day of Cheltenham and the main highlight
is the Gold Cup. The rain is going to make things far
harder today but we have given the last 3 Gold Cup
winners and I will try to improve that proud record.

Heavy rain is due around Lunchtime that is likely
to turn the ground soft and maybe Heavy so that’s
the one thing to remember and account for.

 

Cheltenham 3.20

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

Racing Post Odds

11/4 Bobs Worth, 7/2 Sir Des Champs
9/2 Silviniaco Conti, 11/2 Long Run, 14/1 Cape Tribulation
14/1 Captain Chris, 14/1 The Giant Bolster
66/1 Monbeg Dude, 100/1 Wayward Prince.

The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y

This is the real highlight of the meeting and a race
where I trust my angles. We have a brilliant record
in this race. All past messages for years are posted
on the message board. I looked at recent Gold Cup
messages and it struck me how well we had done.

Service Bets in the Cheltenham Gold Cup

2012 – Synchronised WON 10/1
2011 – Long Run WON 5/1
2010 – Imperial Commander WON 12/1
2009 – Albertas Run Lost 14/1
2008 – Denman WON 9/4
2007 – No Bet
2006 – Hedgehunter 2nd 20/1 – Follow The Past 3rd 9/1

We have tipped the last 3 winners of this race and at
10/1 5/1 and 12/1 although I did have a saver in 2011
and a Split Stake in 2010. This only shows that I have
developed a good understanding about just what it
takes to win a race like this. Lets hope this continues.

* We need to get rid of the horses with little chance
* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race
* MONBEG DUDE is rated far too low
* WAYWARD PRINCE is also too low

 

Racing Post Ratings on Bad Ground

This is a complete experiment. I have never
done it before. I have looked at recent form in
the last couple of years with the aim of trying
to provide a table of “best performances” that
were given in the conditions we have today.

* These scores are Racing Post Ratings only
* I demanded the Following Conditions
* The Ground must be described as one of these
* Either Soft or Heavy or the Going Stick under 7.0
* This is only in Chases and not hurdles
* It must be in the past two seasons

Top Rated Scores

1) LONG RUN 180
2) SILVIANO CONTI 175
3) BOBS WORTH 174
3) LONG RUN 174
5) SILVINIACO CONTI 173
5) LONG RUN 173
7) LONG RUN 171
8) CAPTAIN CHRIS 170
8) CAPTAIN CHRIS 170
10) SIRE DES CHAMPS 169
11) SIRE DES CHAMPS 168
11) THE GIANT BOLSTER 168
11) SILVINIACO CONTI 168
14) CAPE TRIBULATION 166
15) THE GIANT BOLSTER 166

* This is unscientific for the following reasons
* Describing the Ground is problematic
* I have no Going Stick readings for Ireland
* Some horses have had more opportunities
* Lighter raced horses don’t get as many chances

I am looking solely at Chases in the past two years
that were run on soft or heavy ground or at a track
when the Going Stick was under 7.0. The scores in
this table are Racing post Ratings with this criteria.

* LONG RUN has the 1st 3rd 5th 7th best ratings
* I would see him in a favourable light because of it

* Back to a more Traditional style of analysis
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* I wouldn’t want a horse with fewer runs that season
* BOBS WORTH is the only horse with just 1 run
* He is also the shortest priced horse as well
* BOBS WORTH has a lot to prove with just 1 run
* I cant help feeling missing his prep runs an issue

* BOBS WORTH has 5 Chase runs and just 1 run this season
* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* The horse with 5 Chase starts was Long Run in 2011
* However Long Run had 4 extra French Chase runs
* BOBS WORTH would be the least experienced winner

* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* BOBS WORTH only has 1 run – a serious worry
* He isn’t a big horse and that wont help
* Not when he is under pressure and lacking a run

* 16 of the last 17 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
* The rest of the field have between 8 and 16 runs
* I would see that as acceptable

* CAPE TRIBULATION doesn’t interest me
* Exposed horses like him rarely win this race
* His win last time didn’t impress me and I tipped him
* He beat 12 year old absent 680 days into second
* The 3rd horse didn’t stay and 4th was out of form
* He is smaller than ideal and likes smaller fields
* It will be slightly disappointing if he wins

* CAPTAIN CHRIS has to prove he will stay
* There is a big doubt about that
* I looked at his Sires record in Listed and Graded Class
* None of his offspring won over this far in that class
* He is also better going right handed

* THE GIANT BOLSTER was 2nd last year
* Granted similar conditions the race should suit him
* He is Exposed now though with 23 National Hunt starts
* This race rarely goes to a horse with so many runs
* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* THE GIANT BOLSTER now has 14 Chase runs
* Only 1 of the last 16 winners had 14 or more chase runs
* He has 8 runs in Grade 1-2 before and has yet to win
* You would expect something to beat him

* SILVINIACO CONTI passes all the main angles
* There is no doubt he has the class to win
* It will come down to if he stays and handles the track
* He isn’t a big horse and I don’t like that
* The small field should help him
* I’d have liked stronger evidence he likes Cheltenham
* SILVINIACO CONTI has shown he stays 3m 1f twice
* That was at Wetherby and Aintree
* I looked at the course record times for those races
* I also looked at the Racing Post Standard times
* It takes around 24-30 seconds longer to run this trip
* The testing uphill finish could be too much for him

Shortlist

LONG RUN
SIR DES CHAMPS

I have two on my shortlist. The only thing that does
worry me is that BOBS WORTH whilst statistically a
lot weaker than this pair may turn out to be special.
There is a fair chance that he is and I wont be that
surprised if he can win despite a vulnerable profile.

* LONG RUN has 24 runs and 16 came in Chases
* That’s on the high side and it is a worry
* That does however include his younger French form
* However if we ignore his runs in France as a 3yo-4yo
* He then doesn’t look as exposed as before
* In England he has 12 runs all of these Chases

* He does meet some improving younger horses
* He should run his race and he should go close
* He dominates my Racing Post Ratings table above
* An important factor will be his Cheek pieces
* His stable are on record as saying they benefit him
* The 1999 winner had headgear so it has been done
* LONG RUN could be the professional bet here

* SIR DES CHAMPS comes out very well
* 8 Chase starts is not far off perfect
* He is 2-2 at Cheltenham Festivals
* There are factors against him
* SIR DES CHAMPS is only 8th best on Official Ratings
* That seems ridiculous but there are higher rated horses

* SIR DES CHAMPS is the stand out profile here
* He is the statistical choice on my angles
* He does need to prove he stays this trip
* He needs to do that on the ground as well

* I looked at the record of his Sire
* I looked at his offspring running under these conditions
* Running over 3m+ in soft ground in Listed-Graded class
* There was a 4-10 record which is very encouraging
* That said all 4 winners were 3m 1f or shorter
* None as yet have done it over this far

 

Selection

LONG RUN 5/1 Each Way

I think this has to be the bet each way. Had it been
faster ground I would have bet Sir Des Champs as
the best profile horse. I could and nearly did have
a saver on him but surely LONG RUN is the better
bet each way. This allows you some safety even if
BOBS WORTH or SIR DES CHAMPS turn out to be
special as well they might. LONG RUN has placed
and Won in the Gold Cup. Obviously he is not the
same horse as he was when winning this in 2011
but does he need to be ? Look at his figures and
there is only roughly half a stones regression and
his Racing Post Ratings on bad ground hold up as
well as any. There are several doubtful stayers in
this field and a few that wouldn’t want this ground.

5/1 at 1/4 odds is available at bet365
( and would be applicable for their 4/1 free bet bonus )

Same odds at betfredWilliam Hillstan jamesbet victor
All mentioned above off BOG prices to protect you if it happens to drift out later.

Good luck today whether following me or doing your own thing.

Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk


PS Join for a full month of pro service while the Cheltenham Deal remains live.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

It will dissappear after the weekend. Take The Price.

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 15, 2013

Tags: , , ,