Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip 2019

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

Guy has a strong record in this race over the past ten years.
Highlights would include.

2014 – On His Own ew @ 22/1 2nd by a nose
2012 – Synchronised WON 10/1
2011 – Long Run WON 5/1
2010 – Imperial Commander WON 12/1
2008 – Denman WON 9/4

Account for some losers and breakeven
placed ew bets on other years and the long term net
big picture is pretty strong.

So what does he have for you this year?

Quite a long odds specualtive one this year it happens.

Good luck should you decide to follow.

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Cheltenham 3.30

4/1 Native River, 9/2 Clan Des Obeaux, 9/2 Presenting Percy,
8/1 Bellshill, 9/1 Kemboy, 14/1 Al Boum Photo, Thistlecrack,
16/1 Might Bite, 20/1 Bristol De Mai, 20/1 Elegant Escape,
25/1 Anibale Fly, Shattered Love, 33/1 Invitation Only,
40/1 Definitly Red, 100/1 Double Shuffle, Yala Enki.

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Number of Chase runs

23 Yala Enki
21 Bristol De Mai
20 Double Shuffle
18 Definitly Red
15 Native River
14 Anibale Fly
13 Might Bite
13 Clan Des Obeaux
11 Elegant Escape
11 Shattered Love
9 Invitation Only,
9 Bellshill
8 Thistlecrack
8 Kemboy
7 Al Boum Photo
5 Presenting Percy

17 of the 19 winners
Shared the following profile

1) Under 10 years old
2) Under 15 Chase runs
3) Absent more than 4 weeks
4) Coming from a Graded race
5) Starting under 10/1 last time
6) Under 21 lifetime runs
7) Starting 20/1 or shorter

Horses with this profile

PRESENTING PERCY
SHATTERED LOVE
ELEGANT ESCAPE
KEMBOY

Thats an interesting shortlist

AL BOUM PHOTO is not first choice
Firstly Ruby Walsh has rejected him
He has raced just once this season
Previous Gold Cup winners aged 7
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Worried about a 7yo with just 1 run
His sire hasn’t had a winner over this far

The Previous 23 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

12 9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

21 of the 23 last Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs
BRISTOL DE MAI is a bit too exposed
DEFINITLY RED has the same problem

Horses aged 10 or more
Score very badly these days
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992

THISTLECRACK is too old Aged 11
Has not won a race since 2016
MIGHT BITE is rejected aged 10
Flopped on his two runs this season

CLAN DES OBEAUX is improving
He has had a very impressive season
I have two problems with his chance
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997

CLAN DES OBEAUX ran 27 days ago
His Denman Chase win is a concern
Will this race come too quickly
Has a stamina problem as well
Horses sired by Kapgarde
Running in Listed and Graded races
Racing over 3m 1f and more
Have a 0-15 record so far
Improving and could easily win
But the above issues make me nervous

ANIBALE FLY shares a similar problem
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
The last 17 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn’t
He has had 22 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts

KEMBOY is a 7 year old
Long been on my shortlist for this
But there are 3 factors against him
But Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Kemboy has raced only twice
Sire has had no wins yet over 3m 2f +
Not so bothered about that argument
But Ruby Walsh has turned him down
For him to win Walsh has to be wrong

NATIVE RIVER

15 Chase starts is forgivable
But he has had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts

He did win the race last season
Only 4 of the last 50 winners
Followed up and won this again
Will one or two improve past him
The stableform another problem

PRESENTING PERCY

Made the original Shortlist
But that avoided his main problem
Not run over fences in 12 months
Many say he is the second coming
Obviously high class and fancied
Nobody really knows how he will run
But his profile is too extreme for me

BELLSHILL

Always looked promising for this
His 9 Chase runs is good
21 lifetime runs is about the maximum
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
But Ruby Walsh has chosen him

INVITATION ONLY is an 8yo
High class horse on his day
But he comes from a handicap
He is low down the stable pecking order
Ruby Walsh has rejected him
He is 0-4 in his Grade 1 races so far

ELEGANT ESCAPE

Surprisingly good positives
Made the original shortlist of 4
Sired by Dubai Destination worries me
Flat bred and I can’t have the pedigree
But I can be a sire snob in these matters
I said the same before the Welsh National

That was an astonishing performance
The 3 horses winning that with 11st 6lbs +
All went on to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup
He has defied his pedigree before
Can’t be ruled out with 11 chase runs
But Colin Tizzards horses are very flat
His run after Chepstow was decent
Race came soon enough after Chepstow
Very hard to come out of that race
Within the next month and win any race
And second to Frodon looks good now
I like that he made my original shortlist
We get 20/1 to compensate for negatives
The top of which would be the stableform

INVITATION ONLY won the Thyestes
Beat Alpha Des Obeaux that day
Next day in Future Betting Angles
Said I had a small bet at 50/1 to win this

SHATTERED LOVE is a mare
No reason at all why that is an issue
Intriguing she made my first shortlist
Official Ratings have her way behind
But she is a huge price to compensate
And her form can be upgraded
Cheltenham Festival winner last year
Fairyhouse came too soon for her next
Only a couple of weeks after Cheltenham
Went to the well too often at Punchestown
Those April races last season
Were her 7th and 8th run of the season
Not easy to see her as over the top
This year a much lighter campaign
Obviously it is a leap of faith
But I think she is underestimated

Astonishing race
Deep strength in depth

Think we have to stay
With the lighter raced profiles
And not be afraid of big prices
Which is why I am going with value

£2.25 Each Way SHATTERED LOVE 25/1

£2.25 Each Way INVITATION ONLY 33/1

£1.00 Win Bet ELEGANT ESCAPE 18/1

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PS Odds above were rough average market odds
when this was sent out to full members earlier this morning.
Do your best to hunt around for best prices at the time toy bet yourself.
You may even find higher than the above in spots.

Note most bookies are offering 4 places.

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 15, 2019

Tags: ,

Cheltenham Gold Cup – Early Analysis

Below is a snippet from our Full member message of yesterday
in which Guy was having an early look at this year's
Cheltenham Gold Cup.

I thought I would post it up here in case any
of you blog readers had an interest.

Note as well that it has been tradition over the past 
few years to also post up here on the blog his 
final judgement Gold Cup Analysis. 

Typically this will be on the morning of the race.
This year we will probably do the same.
I temper it with the "probably" only because
one can never guarantee how things will pan out.
Cheltenham non runner no bet markets do give
a certain comfort to slightly earlier than day of the race 
betting.There is always a chance that Guy may spy a degree of 
extra edge from earlier Gold Cup advice for our full members.
eg say for example there was a change in predicted going for 
Gold Cup day two days before the race. Perhaps under NRNB it 
may be shrewd to take the current price on a going suited 
horses instead of waiting for two days
when it will likely be shorter.

Hence "probably" here on Gold Cup day :)

The best spot to be of course is in as a full member for 
Cheltenham month.

We will actually be doing a cheap offer deal as we 
have done in past years.
Many major festival only types come back year 
after year for the Cheap Cheltenham month deal.

Drop me an email if you want more info
See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/contact.asp





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FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Today I wanted to make some progress

On the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Which is now just 16 days away



Cheltenham Gold Cup

9/2 Clan Des Obeaux 9/1 Presenting Percy
6/1 Native River 11/1 Kemboy 14/1 Might Bite
16/1 Thistlecrack 20/1  Al Boum Photo
25/1 Road To Respect 33/1 Elegant Escape
33/1 Shattered Love


If you go back to 1999

19 renewals
17 of the 19 winners
Shared the following profile

1) Under 10 years old
2) Under 15 Chase runs
3) Absent more than 4 weeks
4) Coming from a Graded race
5) Starting under 10/1 last time
6) Under 21 lifetime runs
7) Starting 20/1 or shorter


19 renewals since 1999
75 horses had this profile
17 of these won the race

Horses with this profile

Presenting Percy
Shattered Love
Elegant Escape
Kemboy

Just looking at that shortlist
KEMBOY would be my preference

I would not use this profile religiously
It would only take minor adjustments
And I could add other horses to the list
Take the example of Al Boum Photo
Just ran in Listed class not Graded class
I could easily forgive a few horses angles
Road To Respect could have got there


Anyway

Wanted to have a look at the main runners
Listed some of their positives + negatives
And see where we ended up at the end

9/2 Clan Des Obeaux 9/1 Presenting Percy
6/1 Native River 11/1 Kemboy 14/1 Might Bite
16/1 Thistlecrack 20/1  Al Boum Photo
25/1 Road To Respect 33/1 Elegant Escape
33/1 Shattered Love


Number of Chase runs

22 Frodon
21 Bristol De Mai
18 Definitly Red
15 Native River
15 Road To Respect
14 Anibale Fly
13 Might Bite
13 Clan Des Obeaux
11 Elegant Escape
11 Shattered Love
9 Bellshill
8 Thistlecrack
8 Kemboy
7 Al Boum Photo
5 Presenting Percy


This is an illustration
Of how exposed the main runners are

The Previous 23 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

12 9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

21 of the 23 last Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs



FRODON

22 Chase runs
Just looks too exposed

BRISTOL DE MAI

21 Chase runs
Just looks too exposed

DEFINITLY RED
18 Chase runs
Not in line with almost all winners

NATIVE RIVER

15 Chase starts is forgiveable
But he has had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
He did win the race last season
Only 4 of the last 50 winners
Followed up and won this again
Will one or two improve past him
Can he repeat previous heroics
When the ground may not be soft

THISTLECRACK

11 years old
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a very poor  record
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992
He has also had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
Has not won a race since 2016

MIGHT BITE

10 years old
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a very poor  record
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992
Flopped on his two runs this season

PRESENTING PERCY

5 Chase runs
You can win this with 5
Interrupted Season
Just 1 run this year (hurdles)

CLAN DES OBEAUX

Has a 27 day absence
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
Has a stamina problem as well
Horses sired by Kapgarde
Running in Listed and Graded races
Racing over 3m 1f and more
Have a 0-15 record so far

ANIBALE FLY

Not a certain runner
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
The last 17 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn't
He has had 22 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts

SHATTERED LOVE

She is a mare
Official Ratings have her way behind
Big price if you wanted to risk her

ELEGANT ESCAPE

Defied his pedigree before
Can't be ruled out with 11 chase runs
But flat bred and just can't have the pedigree


Leaning more towards these horses


AL BOUM PHOTO

He is a 7yo
Has raced just once this season
Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Worried about a 7yo with 1 run
That is my only problem with him
Two recent winners had 1 run that year
Thats a positive but none were 7yo's
He is also coming from a sire
Without a winner over this far

KEMBOY

He is a 7yo
Maybe fast improving
But Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Kemboy has raced only twice
Sire has no wins yet over 3m 2f +

INVITATION ONLY

Backed him at 50/1 some time ago
Seen as not a certain runner

ROAD TO RESPECT

15 Chase runs is acceptable
Finished a decent 4th in 2018 race
Connections say he wants it soft
His numbers don't really prove this
Stamina may be an issue sired by Gamut
His sires runners in Class 4 or higher
None have yet won beyond 3m 1f (0-13)
I would not rule him out on the above

BELLSHILL

9 Chase runs is good
21 lifetime runs is the maximum
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts


Provisional Shortlist

INVITATION ONLY 50/1 (WP Mullins)
AL BOUM PHOTO 20/1 (WP Mullins)
KEMBOY 10/1 (WP Mullins)
BELLSHILL 14/1 (WP Mullins)
ROAD TO RESPECT 25/1


Obviously things can change
May have a completely different view later
But these 5 horses interested me most

4 of the 5 shortlisted
Are trained by Willie Mullins

Can't find any prices yet
Just for Mullins to win this race
But that could be an option later on

This list could be whittled down
Invitation Only may run elsewhere

Obviously the biggest headache
Not knowing the stable pecking order
But looking at this experimental shortlist
Looking at the prices and frame of race

If the race was being run today
I would probably stake it this way

£2.50 Each Way KEMBOY 10/1
£2.50 Each Way BELLSHILL 14/1

The race is not being run today
There is still much we do not know
Such as ground and running plans
Still clinging on for the vain hope
That we may be offered 4 places
I don't think we will get that though

But this is where I am with the race

No final selection ( just yet )
***************************************************
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Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham – Arkle RSA Chase and Gold Cup

Today I am just quickly posting up a quick copy and paste
extract from our more comprehensive full member
message today. This is from the Future Betting Angles
message subsection.

This FBA section is a little regular extra for members
here that comes in addition to the daily racing analysis.
As the name implies this bit is focused on future
ante post racing.
Several Cheltenham Festival races get a mention.

Guy here is also doing a lot of Grand National
profiling research at the minute for full members
but I ducked posting that here as it makes less sense
to see just one day of it in isolation.

========================================================






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


The Saturday and Sundays cards
Look ridiculously vibrant + classy

I made the point the other day
The midweek cards are rubbish
The quality pushed to Saturday
It comes at you so thick and fast
Leaving little time to consider it
That is designed and deliberate

If you look at Oddschecker site
And the Ante Post Racing page
The markets open this weekend
This simply makes your jaw drop

Some of the weekend meetings
Will be dependent on the weather
Leopardstown has a 2 day fixture
Top class full of Cheltenham horses
This meeting is far from being safe
They have a foul weather forecast

Many horses running this weekend
Are having final Cheltenham preps

Buveau D'Air should be one of them
He will be long odds on at Sandown
But that meeting could be in doubt
If we lose meetings at the weekend
Many horses just like Buveau D'Air
Will miss their Cheltenham prep runs




Cheltenham Festival

Tomorrow entries are published
On the following Festival races

Supreme Novice Hurdle - 99 entered
Ballymore Novice Hurdle -139 entered
Triumph Hurdle - 59 entered
Albert Bartlet - 107 entered


Pricewise

Recently previews some races
These are their idea of the best bets

Rsa Chase
Topofthegame
1pt win at 8-1

Arkle Chase
Le Richebourg
1pt win at 7-1


The last time I did the Arkle Chase
LE RICHEBOURG was my provisional selection
I would agree with Pricewise here


RSA Chase

3/1Santini 9/2 Delta Work 7/1 Topofthegame
14/1 Vindication 16/1 OKCorral 20/1 On The Blind Side
25/1 Mortal 25/1 Champagne Classic

Paul Kealy in the Racing Post Weekender
Has also covered this race this week
Like Pricewise he selects Topofthegame

TOP OF THE GAME may look obvious
Has a chance but I still prefer others

There are now 41 days to Cheltenham
TOP OF THE GAME has not won a chase
He has failed in all 3 of his chases so far
So unless he runs quickly and he wins
Then he will be a maiden over fences

If as expected he does not run
Then he faces another problem
TOP OF THE GAME has 2 runs this season

Look at the last 19 renewals
18 of the previous 19 winners
Had at least 3 runs this season
TOP OF THE GAME does not match this

SANTINI has the same problem
DELTA WORK has 3 runs this season
Although as a 6yo he is not the best age

Assuming none of these will run again
The decision may be a statistical trade off
Will DELTA ROCKS extra run this season
Compensate for him being a 6yo
When his two market rivals
Santini and Top Of The Game
Have raced just twice this season
When just 1 of the last 9 winners did so
There could be other options available
The last time I looked at this race
I liked SANTINI and DELTA WORK best
Would be happy to bet both as a pair
In two each way doubles with something



Cheltenham Gold Cup

Stuart Riley in The Racing Post
Did a piece recent about Native River

His argument
Native River is not a likely winner
As Gold Cup winners don't win again
He says the last to do it Best Mate 2002
He states just 4 managed this in 50 years
There is some merit in what he says

NATIVE RIVER is around 13/2 on Betfair
I have already backed him as a saver bet
I'm happy with that position right now
Have the option to upgraded him to a bet
Have the option to choose something else

Unless the ground is really soft
I probably will choose something else
Although "Good Ground" is unlikely
It could happen if it dries out that week
He has never won a chase outside soft

There just feels like this is a year
Where we could get quite a big field
There are a lot of improvers in there
NATIVE RIVERS win in the 2018 Gold Cup
Was a slog on very bad ground
If conditions are different this year
He may find some have overtaken him

The Previous 22 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

12 9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

NATIVE RIVER has 15 Chase runs

21 of the last 23 Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs
So he will not be the snuggest fit

Staying with last years race

ROAD TO RESPECT was 4th

I gave him every chance in 2018
But did not select him  for 1 reason
I was concerned about his stamina
He was beaten 12 lengths on soft

If the ground is faster this season
I could easily go with him this year

I have read a few arguments for him
People that I quietly follow on twitter
That I think can teach me something
One person I follow is all over him

There is 1 complication

ROAD TO RESPECT runs Sunday
Favourite for the Irish Gold Cup
We don't know if the meeting will be on
If it is and he wins he will half in price
If it is and he loses he will appeal less

Right now he's certainly on my shortlist



Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 31, 2019

Tags: , , ,

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2018 – Initial Thoughts

Posted up below are some initial thoughts on the 2018 Cheltenham Gold Cup.

They were sent to full members as part of our Future Betting Angles sub section on March the 4th.

This is early thought stuff from Guy.

More information will have slotted into place by the day of the race itself.

– Who is definitely running?

– What will the going be?

– What are the morning odds on offer?

– Where is the value?

 

We will post up his day of race final conclusion here on this blog too.

Guy has a strong long term profit record in the race as you can judge at this link

Cheltenham Gold Cup Free Tip

 

Free feel to follow on twitter as we will tweet when his day of race analysis is up here for you.

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup – Thoughts From March 4th

Might Bite (4) Native River (13/2) Sizing John (7)
Our Duke (9) Killultagh Vic (10) Road To Respect (10)
Definitly Red (20) Total Recall (20)Edwulf (25)
Minella Rocco (25) Cue Card (33) Djakadam (33)
Outlander (33) Anibale Fly (40) Bachasson (40)
Double Shuffle (40) Tea For Two (66) Saphir Du Rheu (100)

Could this be a Soft Ground Gold Cup ?
Only 2 of the last 20 were run on soft/heavy

What effect will that have ?

MIGHT BITE’s may not want it soft
As his stamina will be tested more
His Sire is Scorpion
Scorpions runners in Class 4 or higher
Have yet to win any race past 3m 1f

NATIVE RIVER has just 1 run this season
That is not a good sign statistically
Soft ground could compound that
SAPHIR DU RHEU has the same problem

DJAKADAM has 18 Chase runs
Thats too exposed these days
Has he not had his chance ?
His sire has not bred a winner
On softer ground in Class 2 +beyond 3m 1f

OUR DUKE has a 27 day absence
Cheltenham Gold Cup since 1997
Horses running in the last 32 days
Have a 0-62 record in the last 21 years
OUR DUKE will fail this 0-62 record
Has his last run left it’s mark ?
He also comes from a 2m 4f race
The only horses that managed that
Were 9 year olds and he is younger
He also has no Cheltenham form

We know that the past 7yo winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
I would be worried about a 7 year old
If having just 1-2 runs this season
And if the ground is softer than usual
That could well hurt BACHASSON

SIZING JOHN won this last year
But he has raced just twice this season
He has now had 13 Chase starts
Thats more than any past winner
Who had under 3 runs this season
He ran badly last time as well
And it is not easy to retain your title
His Breeding stats are weaker on soft
Horses sired by Midnight Legend
Soft and heavy ground
Class 2 grade and higher
Have a 0-19 record over 3m 2f +

TOTAL RECALL has breeding issues
Horses sired by Westerner
3m 2f or more
Good to soft or worse
Class 2 or higher
Return a 0-23 record
He also comes from a hurdle race
None have done that in decades
And he has no Grade 1 winning form

KILLULTAGH VIC is inexperienced
The last 21 winners had the following chase runs
18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
He only has 3 Chase starts
The 2016 winners managed that
But he had more runs that season
And did not come here after a fall

ANIBALE FLY 33/1 fell last time
Hardly the best preparation
Neither trainer or sire look welcoming
Stamina has to be proven as well
The last 16 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn’t

 
 
If we take out the rank outsiders
Available at 100/1 and more on Betfair
We are left with the following horses

 

Potential Shock Winners

MINELLA ROCCO 33/1
EDWULF 25/1
ROAD TO RESPECT 10/1
DEFINITELY RED 20/1
DOUBLE SHUFFLE 40/1

 

MINELLA ROCCO 33/1

Horrible trainer to trust
But you can trust him in this race
He was 2nd last year after all
You have to see him as a spring horse
My worry is that on soft or heavy
His Racing Post Ratings drop badly
The better the ground the better his chance
And he has yet to win a Grade 1

 
EDWULF 25/1

Surely his last run suggests
That his injury last year is overcome
I fancied him big time at Cheltenham
May have won without breaking down
Just imagine if he had won that race
Would he not be half the price than he is

 
ROAD TO RESPECT 10/1

I like 10 chase runs and much about him
His last 2 runs were career bests
Is he bred to win a Gold Cup though
Sire was a 12f Flat horse after all
But positives far outweigh negatives

 
DEFINITELY RED 20/1

Unfashionable but solid
Consider his Cotswold Chase win
His Racing Post Rating was 172 that day
When Sizing John won the 2017 Gold Cup
His Racing Post Rating was only 171
That surely gets him shortlisted
If he stays no shock if he won
He has not yet won a Grade 1 though
Been a long time since a winner didn’t

 
DOUBLE SHUFFLE 40/1

Second in a King George is significant
What if he wasn’t flattered that day ?
Profile and sire stats are positive
He has placed at a Cheltenham Festival
Needed his first 2 runs this season
There are a lot worse bets at 40/1

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 6, 2018

Tags: ,

Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis 2017

Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis
Today’s Bet

Split Stake Bet
to a £10 total nominal stake.

Cheltenham 3.30

Gold Cup

£5.00 Win OUTLANDER 11/1

£3.00 Win DJAKADAM 100/30

£2.00 Win NATIVE RIVER 9/2

 
I like this strategy
I think Djakadam will win
But the value has gone now
OUTLANDER has the best profile
Gordon Elliots is on record as saying
He is not in the same league as Don Cossack
That has helped the price a lot
He may be right
But he may not need to be good enough

I have “Bought” my dangers out of the race
This means we are on OUTLANDER at 6/1
With cash back if Djakadam or Native River wins
Very optimistic OUTLANDER can beat the rest
Cue Card has some strong statistics against him
Sizing Europe has to prove stamina
He is only 6 years 10 months old and not a 7yo
Which is a problem also facing Native River

The open issue I can not nail
Is we have horses 6 years and 10 months old
Who come here with recent races
We have horses aged 8 and 9
Who come here with longer absences

Which of these groups are more suitable
Will probably hold the key to the race
Statistically there is no clear cut answer
But I know many recent renewals
Went to 9 year olds with very similar absences
To the one that OUTLANDER has today
And I feel he is a pretty decent choice of bet
A bet I personally think is well staked and protected

 

 

Cheltenham 3.30

Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup
(Grade 1) (5yo+) 3m2f70y

10/3 Djakadam, 7/2 Cue Card, 7/2 Native River, 8/1 Outlander
8/1 Sizing John, 10/1 Empire Of Dirt, 12/1 More Of That
16/1 Champagne West, 20/1 Minella Rocco, 20/1 Bristol De Mai
50/1 Smad Place, 50/1 Tea For Two, 66/1 Saphir Du Rheu
66/1 Irish Cavalier
The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f

Horses with under 15 Chase runs are best
The more over that you have
The less your chance of winning

The last 21 winners had the following chase runs
18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
Only 2 of the last 21 winners had over 13 Chase starts
Kauto Star was one of those
Don Cossack also managed it last year
That does not bother me
Last year was a small field full of non stayers
Most fancied runners had over 13 Chase runs last year
It was the weakest Gold Cup in years

Cue Card – 28 Chase runs
Irish Cavalier – 19 Chase runs
Smad Place – 16 Chase runs
Djakadam – 14 Chase runs
Bristol De Mai – 12 Chase runs
Saphir Du Rheu – 12 Chase runs
Champagne West – 11 Chase runs
Native River – 10 Chase runs
Outlander – 10 Chase runs
Sizing John – 9 Chase runs
Minella Rocco – 8 Chase runs
More Of That – 7 Chase runs
Tea For Two – 7 Chase runs

CUE CARD has problems
I do not like the fact he is 11 years old
Or that he also has 28 previous Chase starts
Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
All 41 that ran in the last 20 years lost.
Horses aged 10 or more are just 1-102 since 1992
Older horses like CUE CARD struggle in this race
So to do horses with over 13 Chase starrs
CUE CARD with 28 chase runs is too exposed
There is a Breeding angle against him too
CUE CARD is sired by King’s Theatre
If you look at the sires Grade 1 -2 winners
None have won beyond 3m 1f yet
CUE CARD is opposed

Ignore the other horses with over 15 Chases
IRISH CAVALIER does not look good enough
SMAD PLACE has twice failed in this race
SMAD PLACE is 0-12 in Grade 1 races now
Very hard to see some of these being good enough
SAPHIR DU RHEU is rated some way behind the best
He may not stay this far anyway
TEA FOR TWO is talented but miles behind on form
This track hardly seems likely to improve him

MINELLA ROCCO comes here Fell & Unseated
Hardly a Gold Cup winning profile
Because of falling early on last time
He has had just over 2 races this season
Since 1982 there have been 5 winners aged 7
These 5 winners ran 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
MINELLA ROCCO has fewer than all of them
That leaves him short of all recent 7yo winners
That’s why I can’t commit to him

CHAMPAGNE WEST has plenty to prove
He is not proven over 3m or more in Graded Class
His sire Westerner does not inspire me much
Horses sired by Westerner
Running in Class 2 or higher
Running over 3m 2f or more
Have a 0-21 record so far
CHAMPAGNE WEST may not stay

BRISTOL DE MAI is a 6 year old
In fact he is only 5 years 10 months old
That has to be a chilling thought
When Long Run won this as a 6 year old
He did so with an official rating of 179
BRISTOL DE MAI is only rated 154
I will be surprised if he has enough to win

MORE OF THAT has had a disappoiting season
Probably does not matter given his trainer
He was a beaten favourite in last years RSA Chase
No surprised there given he failed multiple angles then
My biggest worry is that he is sired by Beneficial
Not a sire I could trust in Grade 1 races over 3m 2f
MORE OF THAT is still only rated 157
And comes here unseating his rider last time
But I suppose he is the least experienced chaser
He has more scope than Most
He is a Cheltenham Festival winner over hurdles
And a Career best today is highly likely
Bt I think he falls short on a few things
His Jockey is 1-102 at the festival
His Jockey is 0-45 in Chases at the festival

 

 
Shortlist

SIZING JOHN
NATIVE RIVER
DJAKADAM
OUTLANDER

 

 
SIZING JOHN has to prove his stamina
Go back a year and he was running over 2 miles
One of my biggest problem with him
Is that he has only raced once over 3 miles
I may be wrong but I see that as a problem
His Sire has not had a Graded winner over this far
If he stays he is a player but I have my doubts
He is not the biggest of horses either

NATIVE RIVER has had a great year
Won a Hennessy a Welsh National and Denman Chase
I suppose if you nit pick a bit you find some issues
I think he has to be part of the staking plan
But I don’t think he is without criticism

DJAKADAM has 14 Chase runs
He is within the acceptable range for this race
DJAKADAM was runner up in 2016 and 2015
Both years he raced just twice during that season
This year he has also had just 2 prep runs
I would have liked more to be honest
But it has been done and by 8 year olds
And you can argue this is an easier race this year
What swings it for me is last years race
DJAKADAM was only a 7 year old last year
We know all past 7yo winners of this race since 1982
Had raced 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
DJAKADAM last year had under 2 warm up races
He had 1 proper race and fell at the 10th in his prep run
That Fall caused him to suffer an interrupted preparation
DJAKADAM did a Racing Post Rating of 177 last year
He did that in this race when underraced as a 7yo
With an interrupted preparation as well
When he was second in the 2015 renewal
He was technically only 5 years and 10 months
And short of races as well that season
The more I think about him I must upgrade him

OUTLANDER has a nice profile
I don’t think we can underestimate him
Last time out on Racing Post Ratings
OUTLANDER produced a career best 170 run
He has to prove he stays this far
His sire has a Grade 1 winner over 3m
None in this class over further though
But that is not to say he can not stay
And his Numbers are showing consistent improvement
For me he must be part of the staking plan
He is 11/1 and coming off a career best run
Having won a recognised trial race easily

Look at the Ages on the shortlist

SIZING JOHN – 7 year old
NATIVE RIVER – 7 year old
DJAKADAM 8 year old
OUTLANDER 9 year old

This may be relevant

7 year olds have not won for 10 years now
All 17 that tried were beaten since then
Technically if we look at foaling dates

NATIVE RIVER is not yet a 7 year old
SIZING JOHN is not yet a 7 year old
Neither have yet reached their 7th birthday

That pushes me more towards the older pair
DJAKADAM and OUTLANDER

OUTLANDER is 9 years old
He has an absence
If I look at 9 year olds
Absent more than 46 days
Starting under 20/1
Coming from 3m or shorter
Coming from a PatteRn race
I find a 5-13 record
They won in the following years
1999 2004 2009 2010 2012 2016
OUTLANDER must have a serious chance

Gun to my head
I think DJAKADAM will probably win
But too many people think the saver
The value has been sucked out of his price

At the prices I think this is a decent bet
We Buy NATIVE RIVER out of the race
We Buy DJAKADAM out of the race

Leaving OUTLANDER with a good profile
And a Career best last time out
To beat a handful of dangers all with flaws
Selection

£5.00 Win OUTLANDER 11/1

£3.00 Win DJAKADAM 100/30

£2.00 Win NATIVE RIVER 9/2

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 17, 2017

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