In the Kim Muir I am heavily involved with two bets.
I have backed SHILLINGSTONE at 8/1 and I have a
nice bet at 20/1 on BOYCHUK as well. I have to bet
BOYCHUK as a saver but one that wins plenty too.
What I like about this pair is not so much the profiles
they have but the negative profiles many of the other
horses have. I am not just talking about them being
unsuitable for todays race. I am talking about horses
who have profiles that wouldnt have won any chase
at Cheltenham in the last 15 years such is their lack
of neccesary requirements. Some Powerful negatives
in this race. I know there are 24 runners and luck will
be important but take your time when reading why I
am on them and you will hopefully agree I have made
a strong case for both horses winning this race.

**********************************************

CHELTENHAM 4.40

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
(Handicap Chase) (Amateur Riders)
(CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-140) 3m1f110y

13/2 Ballabriggs, 7/1 Shillingstone, 8/1 Galant Nuit
12/1 Isn´t That Lucky, 12/1 Nostringsattached
16/1 Faltering Fullback, 16/1 Finger Onthe Pulse
16/1 I´moncloudnine, 16/1 Khachaturian, 20/1 Boychuk
20/1 Faasel, 20/1 Heathcliff, 20/1 Kia Kaha, 20/1 Lysander
25/1 Buck The Legend, 25/1 Hello Bud, 25/1 Ma Yahab
25/1 Saphir Des Bois, 25/1 Zitenka, 40/1 Oodachee
50/1 Burren Legend, 50/1 Freds Benefit, 50/1 Mr Robert
50/1 Parsons Legacy.

* The Kim Muir is a 25f Handicap Chase for Amateurs
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992

* BURREN LEGEND surely wont win absent 523 days
* MR ROBERT has been off too long for an exposed horse
* He has too much weight for an exposed horse as well
* PARSONS LEGACY wont be fit enough
* FREDS BENEFIT has a horrible profile
* I couldnt bet an exposed horse from a 2m race
* FAASEL has a weak profile
* No exposed horse had under 4 runs this season
* ZITENKA probably isnt good enough
* Nothing too much wrong with his profile
* I cant match him to any past winners though
* I suspect he will find this too warm
* I would have to worry about the track as well

* Horses aged 11 or more are 0-57 in this race
* Cheltenham have had 70 handicap chases
* Thats 70 races at the Festival at any distance
* No 11 year old won with over a Months absence
* They had a 0-88 record and its a poor profile
* LYSANDER fails that and has been absent 76 days
* OODACHEE also fails that and other stats
* HELLO BUD is a 12yo and looks too old for this
* No exposed horse like him won any festival handicap
* The only older horses like him had form in Grade 1 or 2
* No horse his age won any festival race like him
* Not when so well beaten last time
* Not when lacking Grade 1-2 form

* MA YAJAB has just 2 runs this season
* Horses with under 4 runs this season struggled in this
* Exposed types like him were 0-42
* Cheltenham have had 70 handicap chases
* Thats 70 races at the Festival at any distance
* I looked for exposed horses with 1-2 runs that year
* There were 3 winners but they all had 1 thing in common
* They all had form in a Grade 1 race
* No exposed horse that hadnt got Grade 1 form won
* Not with just 1-2 runs that season
* That tells me MA YAJAB wont win

* I´MONCLOUDNINE is a 7 year old
* There were 2 winning 7 year olds
* Neither were absent over a month like him
* Neither came from 3m or shorter like him
* Horses aged 7 only have a 2-52 record
* None had his weight but that doesnt bother me
* I´MONCLOUDNINE isnt like any past winner
* Cheltenham have had 70 handicap chases
* Thats 70 races at the Festival at any distance
* I looked at the record or all 7 year olds
* Those without Graded Form before struggled
* Those with 9 + runs like him won just 1 race
* That winner had a much recent run
* I´MONCLOUDNINE has questions to answer

* GALANT NUIT is 6 years old
* Horses aged 6 are 0-17 in this race since 1992
* The last 6 year old winner was in 1971
* GALANT NUIT  fails a big generic statistic
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* There were 5 winners aged 6 in these races
* None had under 4 runs that season
* None won when absent over a month
* GALANT NUIT fails both those trends
* He has been absent 124 days
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* I looked at horses like GALLANT NUIT
* Absent more than 3 months
* No form in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* Horses with that profile struggled
* Those with 13 + runs were 0-41
* This tells me he will struggle to win
* GALLANT NUIT is a negative

* SAPHIR DES BOIS is also a 6yo
* We know they are 0-17 in this race
* SAPHIR DES BOIS also steps up from 2m 4f
* There are 32 festival handicaps at 3m since 1993
* Thats 16 renewals of this race
* And 16 renewals of the William Hill Trophy
* Only 1 winner came from a 2m 4f race
* He was much older and had much less weight
* SAPHIR DES BOIS could struggle aged 6 from 2m 4f
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled anyway
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals

* ISN´T THAT LUCKY has been absent 110 days
* He has only had 2 runs this season
* His trainer says he will either win or come last
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* I looked at horses with 1-2 runs this season
* When they had absences of 7 weeks or more
* When they had 9 + runs this season
* No winner aged 6-7-8 had that profile in the 70 races
* ISN´T THAT LUCKY isnt like any Festival winner
* We know 7 year olds dont score well in this anyway
* Both 7yo winners had 5 + runs this season
* Both ran within a month as well
* He also has to come from a 2m 4f race
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* ISN´T THAT LUCKY doesnt come out well

* NOSTRINGSATTACHED has been absent 202 days
* He fails my Generic Cheltenham statistic
* Cheltenham has had 132 Handicaps since 1993
* Thats 132 Handicaps at any distance - hurdle or chase
* Thats every handicap run at the festival in 17 years
* I looked at horses that were absent 80 + days
* I then look at those with 13 + runs
* 8 winners won with 13 + runs and 80 + days off
* The 8 winners all had 1 think in common
* They had all ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* That tells me he shouldnt defy his absence
* Especially with quite a tough weight

* FINGER ONTHE PULSE has just 2 runs this year
* He also has a 110 day absence
* That worries me for an exposed horse
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* Only 1 exposed horse won with 1-2 runs that year
* And with an absence like that
* That was Joes Edge in the 2007 William Hill Trophy
* He carries 17lbs more weight than Joes Edge did
* FINGER ONTHE PULSE has other issues
* He comes from 2m 4f
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* Only 2 past winners carried more weight
* Both were unexposed and had 4-5 runs that year
* No exposed horse won carrying more than 11st
* He is a course winner and they have poor records
* FINGER ONTHE PULSE fails too many angles for me

* FALTERING FULLBACK comes from a Novice race
* Horses doing that in this race were 0-40
* He also comes from 2m 4f or shorter
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* FALTERING FULLBACK doesnt look right

* KHACHATURIAN is a 7yo
* There were 2 winners that age win this race
* Both ran within a month
* He has been absent 41 days but thats forgiveable
* Those aged 7 from 3m 1f or shorter were 0-39
* He comes from a 2m 5f race
* Thats a little harder to forgive
* Both 7 year old winners also had at least 10lbs less weight
* Horses in this race from a Novice race were 0-40
* KHACHATURIAN fails that as well
* We know horses from 2m 6f or less are 1-68 as well
* KHACHATURIAN also has that against him
* Most of his wins come on sharp tracks as well
* His 3 runs at Cheltenham were all poor runs
* We know no exposed winner had 11st or more
* Overall not a very impressive profile

* KIA KAHA comes from 2m 5f
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* He is a course winner as well
* Course winners have a weak 1-81 record in 16 years
* These are the only 2 statistical problems
* I dont like his profile but others fail a lot more
* His jumping though just doesnt look good enough
* Its gone to pot lately and I couldnt trust him

* HEATHCLIFF comes out a lot better than most
* Doesnt mean he has a strong profile though
* HEATHCLIFF does have much backclass
* I looked at horses like him with no Graded form
* Those with 13 + career runs won 5 races
* Only 1 was aged under 9 years old though
* He ran far better last time and had more prep runs
* He also looks light on experience with 4 Chase runs
* There was 1 past winner with 4 runs (Honey Mount)
* Funnily enough he comes from the same Ludlow race
* That said Honey Mount won the Ludlow race
* HEATHCLIFF ran badly and nearly refused to race
* I think that makes him too riSky

* BUCK THE LEGEND is shaky
* He may have a better chance than it looks
* He comes from a 2m 5f race
* We know horses 2m 6f or shorter were just 1-68
* Exposed horses from 3m or shorter last time were 1-74
* He has more weight than any exposed winner
* He isnt like any past winner and is Shaky
* I think he is well handicapped though
* Perhaps I wanted him to be stronger statistically
* Certainly has some Jumping issues as well
* Overall I cant make a strong enough case for him
* His inexperienced jockey also worries me

* BALLABRIGGS comes here with a W W record
* He has to carry Topweight in this race
* There has been 1 winner in the last 16 renewals
* That had a 11st 3lbs or more with no Graded Class
* I looked at all 70 Handicap Chases at the festival
* Thats every Handicap Chase at any distance
* I looked at horses with 11st 8lbs or more
* There were 5 winners with that weight
* All 5 had Graded Class and he doesnt
* BALLABRIGGS doesnt look great with that in mind
* He is on a roll and I would respect him
* It’s a tough task though and his mark is high
* Throw in the fact he is unproven here
* I think its a lot to ask but I cant rule him out

S E L E C T I O N

* BOYCHUK has been absent 96 days
* Royal Predica won this in 2003 with a longer break
* He was also exposed with Graded Form
* That gives hope to BOYCHUK
* That said In 70 festival handicap chases
* Thats 70 handicap chases at every distance
* Only 1 exposed horse had that absence/weight
* That leaves him looking Shaky
* He is a Course winner which hasnt been helpful
* He has won Fresh and I think he is shortlistable
* His Grade 1 form cuts him lots of slack
* He doesnt have the strong profile I would like
* BOYCHUK would be a saver for me

SHILLINGSTONE

* SHILLINGSTONE has the 1 profile I like
* He is far from statistically safe
* I have only found 1 past winner like him
* Part of his attraction is strong angles against others
* He only has 6 Chase starts
* I looked at Horses with his profile
* Horses aged 8
* Coming from a Handicap
* No Form in Class 2 races or better
* Under 7 Career runs
* Only 1 horse in  16 renewals had that profile
* That Was Bushkeeper who won in 2005
* All that does is tell me he is fine statistically
* He has 6 Chase starts but lighter raced chasers have won
* There has been recent winners with 4 and 5 chase starts
* He comes from the same Sandown race as the 1995 winner
* The Alners have had 3 runners in this race
* They finished W W 4
* SHILLINGSTONE won many point to points
* He won a Hunter Chase for the Alners Daughter
* This season he switched to the Robert and Sally Alner
* He won his first 2 races when looking well treated
* He then raced just once more last time at Sandown
* He was a little bit dissapointing in 6th place
* Heavy Ground hurt his chance with an 83 day break
* I think he had a good excuse that day
* I think he ran with this race in mind anyway
* Well backed when the weights came out
* He was always laid out for this race
* I think there are massive holes in his opposition
* SHILLINGSTONE looks the likely winner

****************************************************

Posted under Major Horse Races

I don’t think I should have an account bet. Tempted
a lot by the thought of turning an unimpressive week
into a winning one but bottom line is there is not much
point wasting good money before Cheltenham. It has
been a really strong start to the year. I am planning a
Top class Cheltenham where I will be Spot on. Just
having some small personal bets today for some interest.

For the free blog I will list just one of them.

If interested in the other races covered join the full service
under the Cheltenham Deal

Here is the cheap price link:

*************************************************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
*************************************************

NEWBURY 3.10

Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m4f

3/1 Can´t Buy Time, 7/2 Pasco, 6/1 Battlecry, 8/1 Au Courant, 8/1 Panjo Bere,
9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Our Vic10/1 Regal Heights, 33/1 Stan.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m4f
* There are 5 renewals of this race
* There has only been 14 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 14 races in Listed or Graded class

The problem here is 14 races like this is not really enough
to get a complete statistical fixture. What this means from
a practicle point of view in this race is whether we can be confident enough to oppose horses with One or Two runs this season. They score badly but over half the runners in this race have just 1-2 runs this season so just how safe it will be to oppose them is open to doubt.
In this particular race all 5 winners had at least 3 runs this season and most had more. In the 14 similar handicaps horses with 1-2 runs that season only had a 1-41 record. If you take horses that  had never run in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 race before you find that with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a 0-41 record.

None also had an absence of or more than a month (0-35). That is a problem for CAN´T BUY TIME with just 2 runs in this season and a 9 week break. BIG FELLA THANKS also has no form in Grade 1-2 races and comes out questionably as a horse with just 2 runs this season.
Both AU COURANT and STAN come out badly with an absence and just 2 runs this season. I cant have OUR VIC who drops from 3m 4f just 14 days ago and these statistics show him vulnerable.

* There has been 419 handicap chases between 19f - 22f
* Thats 419 races at any time of year in Class 2 or better
* Horses from 3m 3f or more last time won just 10 races
* None were aged 11 or more and OUR VIC is 12
* Those running between Febuary and April were 0-71
* Those running within 2 weeks were 0-37

I just see OUR VIC having too much to do. I’ve found a
winner like REGAL HEIGHTS aged  9 and exposed with
2 runs this year as that winner like him had Grade 1 form
so I see him in a better light but he still looks underraced this year.
If you look at horses in the 14 similar races at this time of year with an
absence of 7 weeks or more there is a very troublesome 1-69 record.
We know that STAN, AU COURANT and CAN´T BUY TIME  have
that against them but so to does PASCO with a 79 day absence.
I see PANJO BERE as having a good profile and although he’s
not well handicapped he is crucially well raced this year
and looks shortlistable. I also like BATTLECRY a lot. It
has to be considered that Trevor Hemmings has him in
two Cheltenham handicaps and whether that raises the
doubt that this is only a prep race or not I wouldnt know
but He is a talented horse. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance
Chase a couple of years ago and he comes here as Fitter
in each run he has had this year and probably well treated
as well. Against many horses with absences and many in
the race potentially underraced this year BATTLECRY is
a really generous price for a horse with few obvious flaws.
He is very one paced and could be beaten by something
who can quicken better but he looks rock solid to me and
I will be surprised if he doesnt place.

SELECTION

BATTLECRY Each Way 7/1

* I think BATTLECRY is a place banker
* I think his most likely position is 2nd
* If I was having a saver it would be on Pasco

** Blog comment: Price dropped a touch now
13/2 available at William Hill  VC betfred

Posted under horse racing tips

 
CHELTENHAM  5.15
JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL CHASE CHALLENGE CUP
(HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m110y
 6/1 Poquelin, 8/1 French Opera, 10/1 Clew Bay Cove, 10/1 My Petra,
10/1 Oh Crick, 10/1 Pasco, 10/1 Tiger Cry, 14/1 I’m So Lucky,
14/1 Lorient Express, 14/1 Perce Rock, 20/1 Andreas, 20/1 Valain,
25/1 Calatagan, 25/1 Psychomodo, 33/1 Central House, 33/1 Moon
Over Miami, 40/1 Beggars Cap, 40/1 Palarshan, 40/1 Tramantano, 66/1 Jigsaw
* This is a 2m Handicap Chase
* There has been 15 renewals since 1993
* There has been 65 handicap chases at this meeting
* Thats 65 handicap chases at every distance
* Its been a long time since an exposed horse won this
* ANDREAS is exposed and has 11st 12lbs
* PALARSHAN is an 11 year old
* Only 7 horses aged 11 won handicaps at the festival
* None had 10st 6lbs or less (0-61)
* None were beaten as far as he was last time
* He looks way out of his depth
* BEGGARS CAP didnt do enough last time
* He looks outclassed in this
* CALATAGAN  is out aged 10 from hurdles
* No horse that age came from hurdles
* In this race horses from Hurdles were poor
* Those like him down in trip from hurdles were 0-50
* No exposed horse won any festival handicap with 11st 12lbs
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse was beaten in a novice or beginners chase and won
* JIGSAW DANCER was just hammered in a Novice Chase
* MOON OVER MIAMI also has that problem
* CENTRAL HOUSE looks too old
* TIGER CRY is a 11 year old absent 61 days
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse aged 11 or more won with a months absnece
* All 60 that tried lost
* With 2 runs since last April he may not be fit
* TIGER CRY looks opposable to me
* TIGER CRY did win this last year
* He had a far better profile though and was fitter
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* POQUELIN is a 6 year old absent 111 days
* I looked at English horses absent 7 weeks or more
* In all handicap chases run at this festival these types were poor
* No horse aged 7 or less managed it (0-43)
* No horse managed it from any kind of Novice race
* POQUELIN fails both those trends
* POQUELIN was also beaten in a Novice Chase last time
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse was beaten in a novice or beginners chase and won
* FRENCH OPERA fails the same angles
* He was beaten in a Novice Chase last time
* We know no Festival Handicap went to a horse doing that
* He is also absent 7 weeks or more
* Horses like him aged under 8 doing that were 0-43
* No horse like him from a Novice race defied that absence
* FRENCH OPERA looks opposable to me
* OH CRICK was also beaten in a Novice last time
* Again no horse won a Festival handicap doing that
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* MY PETRA is a 6 year old absent 71 days
* I looked at English horses absent 7 weeks or more
* In all handicap chases run at this festival these types were poor
* No horse aged 7 or less managed it (0-43)
* MY PETRA fails that and is rejeceted
* Every past winner ran in Graded Class before
* LORIENT EXPRESS has not done that
* He has had 36 races - Aged 10 - yet no Graded Class
* I looked at every Handicap Chase run at the Festival
* Horses aged 10+ with no past Graded form were 0-59
* That suggests to me LORIENT EXPRESS may lack class
POSSIBLES
* PSYCHOMODO isnt too bad statistically
* There are a lot worse profiles
* I dont personally think he will have the class
* He is not a 40/1 chance and is respected
* PERCE ROCK unseated his rider yesterday
* He would not have won and that was over 2m 5f
* I think trip and ground may catch him out
* He is certainly unsafe and has an outside chance
* PASCO is quite interesting as a Novice winner
* I would have prefered a little more than 3 chase runs
* The 2000 winner Samakaan managed it though
* Statistically he is shortlistable but there are worries
* His trainer has argued he wants softer ground
* He has also argued he may not like the track
* Ruby Walsh has also rejected him for Poquelin
* I find it hard to go with him because of that
* VALAIN is very hard to assess properly
* Not sure how relevant running on the flat recently is
* JP McManus owns him and CLEW BAY COVE
* Mc Coy rides CLEW BAY COVE
* I suspect thats because he cant do 10st 1lbs
* McCoy hasnt ridden below 10st 4lbs in the last year
* VALAIN may well be the stable preference
* It would trouble me he ran on the flat
* If he was fancied to win and prepared to perfection
* Why would he run on the flat just 2 weeks before
* As it was his first run since September it may be fitness
* Connections may have felt he wasnt fit
* That may be a rushed prearation
* VALAIN is a big price and that does help with worries
* Respect and Shortlist him but dont select him
* CLEW BAY COVE looks a bit exposed to me
* There has been winners like him but some time ago
* He has had 14 Handicap Chase runs so has no secrets
* You can also argue he may want softer ground
* I am not convinced about him to be honest
* TRAMANTANO looks unfancied at 40/1
* He was beaten 16 lengths in this race last year
* I tipped him in last years race at 25/1
* One or two early mistakes hurt his chance last year
* He is much Fresher this year and he needs that
* This horse is always best after an absence
* With 1 run since November he will be fresh enough
* He loves the track and I am betting him again
I’M SO LUCKY
* I’M SO LUCKY has a very smart profile
* I Looked at horses that had this profile like him
* Coming from a 2m Handicap chase in Class 2
* At least 9 runs and at least 3 that year
* Run within 7 weeks
* Starting 20/1 or shorter
* Has ran in Graded Class before
* Has won in their last 6 races
* Carrying less than 11st
* I’M SO LUCKY has that profile
* SO did 6 other horses that ran in this race before
* Those 6 horses had the following record
* W  W  W  2  3  5
* I’M SO LUCKY will love the drying ground
* He ran very well last time on ground too soft
* His previous race he was beaten by Planet Of Sound
* That horse was 3rd in Tuesdays Grade 1 Arkle
* I’M SO LUCKY had to give him 10lbs that day
* We now know that was an impossible task
* He won his previous 2 races easily
* Statistically he is strong as a lightly raced chaser
* He isnt over exposed in handicaps
* My only worry is will he handle the track
* He has a lot of flat track form
* Its a serious worry and I dont know the answer to it
Two Bets for me in this race
TRAMANTANO Each Way Bet at 40/1
I’M SO LUCKY Win Bet at 20/1

Posted under horse racing tips

CHELTENHAM  4.40

FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP
HANDICAP CHASE (AMATEUR RIDERS) (CLASS 2)
(5yo+,0-140) 3m1f110y

Cheltenham 4.40

PRETTY STAR  £30 Each Way 25/1
BOWLEAVES £20 Each Way 25/1

Pretty Star is 25/1 with Tote-betfred - Hills -Ladbrokes
Pretty Star is 25/1 with Skybet -Blue Square - Paddy P
Bowleaves is 25/1 with Skybet -betfred -Boyles -bet365
Bowleaves is 22/1 with Corals -VC - Tote

Above prices valid at time of send to full members
For current odds see http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/thursday/4-40

7/1 Poker De Sivola, 8/1 Shouldhavehadthat, 9/1 Aggie’s Lad, 12/1 Alexanderthegreat, 12/1 Newbay Prop, 14/1 High Chimes, 16/1 Character Building, 20/1 Bowleaze, 20/1 Double Dizzy, 20/1 Go For One, 20/1 Irish Raptor, 22/1 Oodachee, 25/1 Arteea, 25/1 Butler’s Cabin, 25/1 Ice Tea, 25/1 Le Duc, 25/1 Le Toscan, 25/1 Pretty Star, 25/1 Sherwoods Folly, 33/1 Alright Now M’Lad, 33/1Brooklyn Breeze, 33/1 Openide, 40/1 Without A Doubt, 50/1 Warpath.

* This is an Amateur Riders Handicap Chase
* There has been 15 renewals since 1993
* There has been 65 handicap chases at this meeting
* Thats 65 handicap chases at every distance
* ARTEEA is out aged 10 absent 383 days
* Thats too much to do with 11st 12lbs
* Look at the 65 handicap chases at the festival
* Only 3 winners had 11st 8lbs or more in a 3-125 record
* Of those all 56 horses that came from Graded races lost
* ARTEEA fails that and is rejected
* CHARACTER BUILDING also fails that
* No handicap chase at the festival went to his type
* A Horse with 11st 8lbs unplaced last time out
* HIGH CHIMES also fails that and has 11st 12lbs
* In 65 Handicaps no horse had 11st 8lbs or more like him
* None were as inexperience or lost by as far as him last time
* ICE TEA fails the same statistics
* He has 11st 11lbs and didnt place last time out
* With his absence he looks opposable
* SHERWOODS FOLLY technically fails that as well
* He has 11st 8lbs and Pulled up last time
* No Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chase went that way
* None went to a horse unplaced last time with that weight
* In 65 handicaps I looked at 7 year olds
* None won carrying 11st or more (0-40)
* SHERWOODS FOLLY is trying to become the first
* BUTLER´S CABIN also fails the same statistic
* There must be a chance he is being targeted at the National
* His weight and Absence also looks a problem
* He ought to need the run today and isnt for me
* I am oppisng exposed horses with 1 run this season
* None of the 65 Festival Handicaps went that way
* No horse won with 1 run that year when exposed
* None managed it with a months absence either
* WITHOUT A DOUBT fails that and is rejected
* LE DUC is out as exposed and having 1 run this year
* He comes from a Hunter Chase as well
* No Handicap at this festival went to a Hunter Chase runner
* WARPATH looks impossible to fancy
* OPENIDE looks very hard to fancy at the moment
* Horses aged 11 or more have a 0-55 record in this race
* BROOKLYN BREEZE fails that and is rejected
* He comes from a Hunter Chase and no horse did that
* No Hunter Chaser has won a Festival Handicap before
* ALEXANDERTHEGREAT is also out aged 11
* In 65 handicap chases over any trip at this festival
* Only 7 horses won aged 11 or more
* None of these defied a months break as he does
* LE TOSCAN comes from a Graduation Chase
* Horses not from handicaps were 0-42 in this race
* LE TOSCAN also has a 118 day break
* I looked at all 65 handicap chases at the festival
* No horse had 7 weeks off without coming from a handicap
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT comes from a Novice Handicap
* Horses that came from Novice races in this race were 0-42
* I looked at Novice Handicap Chasers in 65 Cheltenham races
* In the 65 races No horse won coming from a Novice Handicap
* All 19 lost and none managed a 1-2-3 placing in them
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT also has a 73 day absence
* I looked at English horses absent 7 weeks or more
* In every handicap chase run at this festival these types were poor
* No horse aged 7 or less managed it (0-43) as he tries to
* Those that won last time out as he did were 0-41
* No horse managed it from any kind of Novice race
* The only 7yo winners of this race ran within a month
* In 65 handicaps I looked at 7 year olds
* None won carrying 11st or more (0-40)
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT fails that as well
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT has a lot to prove for me
* ALRIGHT NOW M´LAD has 11st 7lbs and an 8 week break
* In 65 English handicaps horses absent 7 weeks struggled
* Those like him with 11st or more were 2-88
* He doesnt look to be in good enough for for this
* BOWLEAZE has a similar problem
* He has a 11st 3lbs and a 96 day break
* OODACHEE has a very hard task
* He is absent 166 days yet a 10 year old and exposed
* He also has 11st 5lbs and steps up from 2m 4f
* AGGIE´S LAD was beaten 80 lengths in a Beginners Chase
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse was beaten in a novice or beginners chase and won
* That would be a big problem for me
* I am sure he is underpriced as he is trained by A Martin
* Irish runners have a miserable record in this as well
* GO FOR ONE has a lot of weight with 11st 5lbs
* In this race horses with 11st 3lbs or more were 3-101
* None were aged 10 or more as he is
* Those like him running within 7 weeks were 1-79
* He may just be handicapped a bit high
* NEWBAY PROP pulled up in this race last year
* He probably has a better chance this year
* He doesnt look to be that well handicapped
* An absence and his weight wont make it easy
* The 15 renewals of this race are interesting
* Horses that came from 22f or shorter were 1-63
* Thats a big worry for some horses in this race
* BUTLER´S CABIN -ALRIGHT NOW M´LAD
* OODACHEE -WARPATH -AGGIE´S LAD fail that
* Course winners have a weak 1-75 record in 15 years
* HIGH CHIMES -BUTLER´S CABIN -OPENIDE fail that
* IRISH RAPTOR -LE DUC ALEXANDERTHEGREAT fail that
* Exosed horses (21+ runs) with 1-2-3 runs that season were 0-37
* ARTEEA -BUTLER´S CABIN -BUTLER´S CABIN fail that
* WITHOUT A DOUBT -LE DUC -BROOKLYN BREEZE do
* Exposed horses that were 1-2-3-4 last time out score badly
* They have a poor 1-59 record
* OODACHEE -BOWLEAZE- LE DUC fail that
* BROOKLYN BREEZE also fails that
* No horse aged 10 or more had under 4 runs that season
* All 40 that tried lost in this race
* HIGH CHIMES - ARTEEA -WITHOUT A DOUBT fail that
* LE DUC - NEWBAY PROP -BROOKLYN BREEZE also fail that
* All 38 horses that came from a Novice race lost
* The following horses all fail this
* AGGIE´S LAD - SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT -POKER DE SIVOLA

POSSIBLES

* POKER DE SIVOLA has been the big gamble
* POKER DE SIVOLA is a 6 year old
* Horses aged under 7 like him are 0-19 in this race
* He also comes from a race that wasnt a handicap
* All past 15 winners of this came from a handicap
* In 65 Festival Handicaps only 6 winners were under 7 years old
* They struggled in the 3m handicaps (1-31)
* No horse that age were unplaced last time as he was
* Its a lot to do for a horse with 11st 3lbs in weight
* Especially for a horse with just 5 chase starts
* IRISH RAPTOR was unlucky last time crashing into a rail
* He is on a winning handicap mark from a top stable
* I wouldnt rule him out in this race but the jockey worries me
* He has just 4 rides and a Hunter Chase win and never ridden here
* IRISH RAPTOR may also be a small field horse
* DOUBLE DIZZY also has a lot of weight
* I dont think he is completely out of this
* I cant find a similar enough winner though

SELECTIONS

PRETTY STAR

* PRETTY STAR is pretty interesting
* He has a very similar profile to the 1998 and 2000 winners
* He also comes from the same prep race as the 1998 winner
* He comes from the same Ludlow Handicap 14 days ago
* His chance may depend on whether he has anything in hand
* PRETTY STAR has to be shortlisted

BOWLEAZE is almost statistically perfect but one or two
minor flawes but I forgive him that. He is from a stable that excel in this race. He is best fresh and several recent winners had his profile and I give him a massive chance in this race.

Venetia Williams may well prefer Alexanderthegreat to her
other runners one of whom I like a lot in PRETTY STAR.
You can argue that on the form of their last race its easier to prefer Alexanderthegreat - and I do think he is a danger but I disagree that he should be the stable choice and feel there are good reasons to prefer PRETTY STAR.

Posted under Major Horse Races

A good day yesterday for the blog with a nice 5/1 winner Whicita Lineman

The main message for full members of mathematician betting also picked out 12/1 winner Go Native

and 2/1 winner Quevega

Today on the blog we have a snippet from the main message.

Fingers crossed for another winner today.

WEDNESDAY 5.15

5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) 2m 1/2f

5/1 Rite Of Passage, 5/1 Sicilian Secret, 7/1 Dunguib, 10/1 Quel Esprit, 10/1 Quinola Des Obeaux, 14/1 Gagewell Flyer, 14/1 Shinrock Paddy, 16/1 Cadspeed, 16/1 Meath All Star, 22/1 Henry King, Cranky Corner, 33/1 Morning Supreme, Red Harbour, Some Present,  Bygones Of Brid,
40/1 Lead The Parade,  Long Strand,  Double Dash, 50/1 Latin America, 50/1 Pepe Simo, Lightening Rod, Abroad, 100/1 Benbane Head, Fennis Boy.

The Bumper is always a nightmare and Willie Mullins is
mob handed again with 9 runners which is ridiculous. It
seems that 14 of the 24 runners at 33/1 and more are
hard to fancy and it looks like we have 11 runners at
under 33/1. Ireland have won the last 5 renewals and 7
of the last 8 as well three of which were won by Willie
Mullins so they clearly dominate.

Statistically you want a horse that has won in a big field. The last 11 winners had all done that and had all won in fields of 16-24-15-27-28-24-17-19-20-22-17 runners. I would want a horse that won it a field of at least 13 runners. Thats quite interesting as SICILIAN SECRET has won in a 7 runner field only and he is the big talking horse. I would also take out all the English runners that dont come from Grade 1 tracks. I would  be against all the English runners that ran once. All 26 horses that had previously ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Bumper lost in this race so I would rule these out as well. I would demand a horse that won last time out. I would be opposing horses that ran within the previous fortnight. I would rather not have a 4 year old. I’d oppose all horses aged 6 that had under 3 career starts. We are still left with 8 horses after going through all those angles. I would ignore horses that lost more races than they won. I’m taking
out the French Bred horses as none have yet won or placed
in the race. I would ignore all horses that are 40/1 and over on the Exchanges. This leaves a shortlist of 3 runners. I will name the shortlist but to take it any further I would have to manufacture some unsafe trend or take a wild guess but my 3  “Best profiles” are these

GAGEWELL FLYER -RITE OF PASSAGE -SHINROCK PADDY

SELECTION

RITE OF PASSAGE Each Way

Two interesting and conflicting things about this selection. Dermot Weld won a Cheltenham race in the late 1980’s. Since 1990 Weld has a 0-49 record at the Festival and that included several beaten favourites. You can argue
that a trend like that makes him a negative and it will
excite all the “Trainer Trends” punters but I dont see it
like that. This trainer is one of the best trainers in the
World. He will be more determined than ever to win a
race again here. The other interesting thing about the
trainer and his horse is this. Reading in the Irish Press
(as you do) about the race a few days ago I came accros
a storythat interested me.

Dermot Weld was at the races some weeks ago and he
went up to Willie Mullin’s Mother - and duly told her
that whatever Willie Mullins runs in the Cheltenham
Bumper he would beat him with RITE OF PASSAGE whom he fancied big time. Thats the bet for me

SELECTION - RITE OF PASSAGE EACH WAY 5/1

Blog Comment - The Odds have now dropped slightly since this was advised to full members earlier today.

Best price now 7/2 in many places PaddyPower,CanBet, Tote , Ladbrokes etc

Posted under Major Horse Races