National Hunt Chase – Stamina Issues

 

NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

Cheltenham 2.40 pm Wednesday

 

One of the things I hate is listening to self appointed

experts who repeat bland clichés about things like a

horse’s stamina. I hear them churn out that “a horse

will stay all day” and “it won’t fail for lack of stamina.”

Many people look at Sire Statistics to try and find if

a Sire has bred winners over the distance or on the

ground. It is very unscientific but no less so than so

many other different approaches to picking horses.

 

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

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Today I want to look at Wednesday’s National Hunt

Chase. Run over 4 miles it is a race where stamina

most definitely comes into play.

A simplistic stamina check is to see if a horse’s sire

has bred winners at long distances.

 

I however want to go the extra mile, dig a bit deeper

and determine if it has done it in the class and on the ground.

 

I have done it this way.

 

* I looked at all the Sires winners

* I found out how many won at 3m 4f or more

* I found out how many have done that on Soft ground

* I found out how many of those did it in Class 3 or more

 

Below you can see my executive summary of this sire research

 

SIRE PERFORMANCE RANKINGS

1) GODSMEJUDGE- Excellent Performance scores

2) MERRY KING – Excellent Performance scores

3) SEA OF THUNDER – Excellent Performance scores

4) VESPER BELL – Enough promise to pass as fine

5) BENHEIR -Enough promise to pass as fine

6) ROSE OF THE MOON – Acceptable scores

7) HIGHLAND LODGE – Acceptable scores

8 ) EMPEROR´S CHOICE – Acceptable scores

9) HAWKES POINT – Not far away but has a bit to prove

10)TOUR DES CHAMPS – Borderline Results

11) BACK IN FOCUS – Stamina not guaranteed

12) RIVAL D´ESTRUVAL – Inconclusive and unproven

13) REAL MILAN – Unproven but small sample size

14) LYREEN LEGEND – Inconclusive and unproven

15) TOFINO BAY – Inconclusive but stamina doubts

16) BUDDY BOLERO – Doubts about stamina

 

For most of you that executive summary will be all you need

to add an element of Sire / Stamina assessment to your own analysis

of this race.

 

I have however posted on our private member message

boards an additional full breakdown of every horse

and a record of the winners the sire has had when

the ground was soft and when running in the class.

I do not want to clutter this piece listing everything.

 

Below however is the section on the current market leader

 

* BACK IN FOCUS

* The Sire has 517 winners

* Record over 3m 4f or more is 7-97

* Record on Softer Ground over 3m 4f + is 4-80

* Softer Ground at 3m 4f in Class 3 + is 1-24

* There is a slight problem here

* Minella Four Star won the 2011 Midlands National

* That was 4m 1f in Listed Class on Good to Soft

* That was the winner in the 1-24 record

* Officially it was Good to Soft that day

* It was actually good ground as it dried out

* You could see this as a 0-23 or a 1-24 record

* Depends which side of the fence you want to sit

* Results and Assessment of his Stamina Profile

* 0-23 or 1-24 record. Stamina not quite certain

 

This analysis leads me to believe there are stamina doubts

about this horse.

 

Bear in mind however that stamina and sire analysis is only one

piece of the puzzle.

I have many more checks to do before considering

my own final selection for this race on Wednesday.

 

I do hope you are with me as a client under of discounted and

guaranteed Cheltenham deal at that point.

Here is the cheap deal link

 

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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

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Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

PS New clients who joined us for last Saturday

have already had their bank rolls boosted for Cheltenham.

Three advised tips – Won 4/1 – 2nd at 7/1 to land each way advice

and a yet to run long odds ante post tip for Cheltenham day 1

 

 

PPS If you are a bit of a stat head and would like a copy of the

stamina stats for the other runners in this race, just contact me and say so

clearly. I will pass them on to you.

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Racing at Lingfield

A small snippet from the full member message today for you.

to learn more about the full service click here ==> Betting Advice

LINGFIELD 3.25

Hollow Lane Handicap (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-95) 1m4f

9/4 Lovers Causeway, 5/1 King Olav, 6/1 Distinctive Image
6/1 Taaresh, 8/1 Mighty Clarets, 8/1 Scamperdale
14/1 Record Breaker, 20/1 Pelham Crescent
25/1 Mister New York, 100/1 Rugell.

This is a 12f Handicap for horses rated 0-91 and we have 176 similar races at this time of year.
Taking a few of these out It is hard to see RUGELL winning.
PELHAM CRESCENT doesnt look fit or ready to win.
MISTER NEW YORK looks unsafe to me.
SCAMPERDALE ‘s done all his winning at 10f and shorter and may not be at his best trip.
He’s 9 and comes up in distance and the only horses his age doing that had Group Class
form in the past and he does not.
RECORD BREAKER is another up in trip.
For him to have matched any winners he needed to have a more recent run
and ran better last time out. TAARESH won a 12f handicap last time out.
It was a weaker race and he won it
with a long absence. It bothers me he moves from 0-75 to this 0-91 grade and has a 10lbs higher mark.
He is up 2 grades and with 1 run only since last June I think he’s unsafe.
I don’t have a big problem statistically with DISTINCTIVE IMAGE but
we have better profiles and he doesn’t look well handicapped. I do respect
KING OLAV but I prefer others in this race.
I thought  MIGHTY CLARETS came out well but there is a strong profile.

* LOVERS CAUSEWAY has a strong profile
* Horses aged 4
* Winning a 12f Handicap last time
* Running within 2 weeks
* Carrying less than 9st 9lbs
* No form beyond a Class 3 Grade before
* Between 9 and 20 career starts
* Horses with this profile had a 8-11 record
* Those ridden by Professional jockeys were 8-9
* They finished W W W W 3 W W W W
* LOVERS CAUSEWAY has that profile

SELECTION – LOVERS CAUSEWAY

currently 5/2 at s james

Posted under horse racing tips

Lingfield Horse Racing Tip

A snippet from Guy’s much longer message for today is below.

You can visit the main site direct by clicking this link ==> Racing Tips

LINGFIELD 3.40

View Our 2011 Fixtures At lingfieldpark.co.uk
Handicap (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-95) 6f

100/30 Perfect Act, 4/1 Anne Of Kiev, 5/1 Five Star Junior
6/1 Breathless Kiss, 6/1 Sioux Rising, 8/1 Vintage
10/1 Green Manalishi, 12/1 The Scorching Wind.

This is another 6f handicap but a classier 0-92 race and
there are 188 similar races. THE SCORCHING WIND is
underraced at the moment and comes out badly coming
down from a Mile. GREEN MANALISHI looks to have
problems aged 10 coming up in distance and doing that
without a recent race. Mares like SIOUX RISING from
7f races and 9 or more runs were 0-48 and that’s why I
feel she is opposable. ANNE OF KIEV is a mare coming
from a 6f handicap without a recent run with a fortnight.
Thats not a safe profile. I found 7 winners doing it but
all 7 of these had form in at least a Class 3 race before
and she doesn’t. Most of the mares that won were also
younger and her lack of backclass means I can’t match
her to any winners. Throw in a rise in the weights for
being beaten and she’s now 7lbs higher than her highest
winning mark and in a Class she has never tasted before
and I have my concerns with ANNE OF KIEV. I think
VINTAGE is shortlistable but he has been off longer at
31 days than most others and I felt there were stronger
runners especially as he has never won in this class and
not from his handicap mark.

BREATHLESS KISS – Shaky profile but just ok
PERFECT ACT – Solid profile but a tough handicap mark
FIVE STAR JUNIOR – Good profile and likes small fields

SELECTION

FIVE STAR JUNIOR Each Way 4/1 Ladbrokes

Posted under horse racing tips

Racing At Kempton

Today’s Best Bet

KEMPTON 1.20

VIA GALILEI 7/1

My best profile horse (Wayward Prince) doesnt run
so what may have been a two bet day is reduced to a
single bet. I am relaxed about that. I probably havent
got to grips with enough races today partly down to
the weather and the cards and there is not much I like.

I do like VIA GALILEI’s chance a lot though and he’s
well worth a decent bet at 7/1 or better. I have some
negatives amongst the fancied dangers. I can not see
many horses beating him all things equal. His rating
on the Flat which has been as high as 107 demands he
must have a very lenient handicap mark over hurdles
off 116 especially when he has already won twice. He
could easily bump into something that beats him but
I can not see many dangers. He’s a good price. These
races are frightening but full of horses that can’t win
so they are never as competetive as they look. He is
interesting as he has a crucial blend of having enough
experience to win but being lightly raced enough to be
progressive and capable of improving. I cant see a bet
that I like better today. There may be something for
the cherry pickers below but I think this is one tough
Saturday. A Day to watch some high class racing and
just the one bet at a decent price to try and win well.

8/1 with VC and betfred
15/2 with Hills PaddyPower bet365 Tote
7/1 Generally elsewhere

KEMPTON 1.20

William Hill Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) 2m

9/2 Skint, 5/1 Samsons Son, 6/1 Ski Sunday, 7/1 Via Galilei
10/1 Aather, 10/1 Babilu, 14/1 Simply Blue, 14/1 Souter Point
14/1 William Hogarth, 14/1 Zanir, 20/1 Big Robert
20/1 Johnny Mullen, 25/1 Alhaque, 25/1 Karky Schultz 50/1 Tobago Bay, 50/1 Top Mark.

This is a competetive 2m Handicap Hurdle. This race has lots of varied profiles.
I wasn’t convinced about SKINT. He comes from a 2m 5f Novice Hurdle.
There are winners that have done that but none had just 3 runs like him and
none were as young  as he is aged 5 and none had his weight. I think you have
to be careful with the horses coming from Novice Hurdles when they have a
long absence. I found only 3 winners like this in 190 of these 2m Handicaps
and None had under 7 career starts.
Those with fewer than 7 starts were 0-35. All 3 winners that won first time out from
a Novice Hurdle dropped from 2m 4f or longer and those that raced at 16f or 17f last
time were 0-37 and that puts me off some of the lighter raced Novice Hurdlers in this race.
That means SAMSONS SON and SOUTER POINT both look vulnerable and don’t have strong profiles.
TOP MARK is hard to fancy not doing enough last time.
TOBAGO BAY and ALHAQUE look outclassed.
WILLIAM HOGARTH is unsafe coming from a Novice Handicap Chase.
If you take horse with long absences that had raced13 or more times before you
find  a 1-79 record . ZANIR has that to overcome and a high weight  on his seasonal
debut and I thing thats asking too much. I dont see a strong case for KARKY SCHULTZ.
There has been some strong money for SKI SUNDAY but he doesn’t look right.
The record of seasonal debutants like him carrying 11st 3lbs or more is poor and
none were 6 year olds like him and I couldnt match him to a winner.
BIG ROBERT will probably find this too much with 3 career hurdle runs.
There are only 3 I can shortlist.

SHORTLIST

I would make BABILU a positive. She may be a mare but she
won last time and is well raced this year and with a light weight  it counts for plenty.
AATHER Looks well worth a place on the shortlist.
I respect VIA GALILEI who won a handicap first time  out this year.
I thought this trio looked best but given the choice it has to be VIA GALILEI.
What swings it for me is his rating.
This is a horse that was consistently rated over 100 on the flat having come from
Jim Bolger to Gary Moore.
He was a top class handicapper on the Flat. That makes a Hurdle rating of 116
just too lenient. It much have more ability than that. Ideally lightly raced.
Winning a good trial race last time. The horse has been handicapped after 3 runs.
Then he won a Maiden hurdle and a handicap on his last two starts and gets in
here off a very decent mark. He’s too good a horse not to fancy off 116 and
with some of main dangers statistically weak he looks well worth a bet.
It doesnt surprise me he has a Tote Gold Trophy entry.
He won’t get in that race without a couple of wins but one of them might well
come today and he would be my best bet at the meeting.

SELECTION

VIA GALILEI 7/1 Win Bet

Posted under horse racing tips

Newmarket Horse Racing Tip

I have previewed ten races today for full members.

For full service joining info See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

One of them I will pop up on the free blog.

NEWMARKET 2.05

Bbag-sales.de Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 1m2f

2/1 Psychic Ability, 11/2 Rumble Of Thunder, 13/2 Abergavenny 13/2 Spanish Duke,  Kindest, 10/1 Putra One, 12/1 Geneva Geyser 14/1 Bollin Dolly,16/1 Ramona Chase 40/1 All Annalena.

This is a complicated 10f Handicap. There are only 34 of these Class 2 handicaps in August. They’ve all gone to horses younger than BOLLIN DOLLY. My problem with PSYCHIC ABILITY  is having 1 run this year something no horse like him managed to do. I think the following statistic puts this in its right context.

* August has had 824 Handicaps at Every Distance
* Thats 824 races at any Distance in Class 2 and Class 3
* I looked at 3 year olds with 1 run this season
* There was a 3-67 record in these 824 races
* 1 of these came from a Group Class race so ignore that
* Those that had No Group class form were 2-52
* None of them won last time out (0-8)
* None of then won at shorter than 12f (0-42)
* Those with 8st 12lbs or more were 0-36
* Those with Under 5 career starts were 0-29
* That included 7 beaten favourites
* PSYCHIC ABILITY fails all these angles

I think the above statistics show it should be wise to try and get an alternative to PSYCHIC ABILITY who has after all got some Cheekpieces after just 3 runs. RUMBLE OF THUNDER is 4 and  has over 12 career starts and no 4 year old that esposed managed  to win with under 4 runs that season. I think he would have been Far better with another run. ALL ANNALENA also fails that as well. Horses aged 4 with 1-2-3 races this season need to be very  lightly raced and to have had form in Class 2 or higher. All those
that won also finished 1-2-3 last time out and failing those angles  is PUTRA ONE who may lack the backclass to win.

The 34 races show fillies having a 1-34 record and KINDEST is  not going to find this easy when you consider it’s a Handicap in Class 2 and she has never been out of a Class 4 race yet. She has benefitted from the rain but this is a step up in class for her. To  win a Class 2 Handicap you want recent form. The horses beaten  over 10 lengths last time were just 1-109 which puts me against RAMONA CHASE who was hammered last time. Horses aged 3 coming from 3yo handicaps have won these races.  However it is interesting None of them came from 12f races. None of them had an absence of more than a month and none had under 4 runs
that year. SPANISH DUKE has all of those factors against him.

* August has seen 286 Class 2 Handicaps at every distance
* Horses from 3yo handicaps when absent over a month are 4-79
* Those with 7 or more runs had a 0-47 record
* SPANISH DUKE has 9 runs and absent 63 days
* I think he is too exposed for a 3yo
* Especially facing a very unpleasant absence.

GENEVA GEYSER is 4 and has 4 runs this season and I see him  having too much weight for a 4yo with just 4 runs this year and  10st and he fails to make the shortlist.

SELECTION

ABERGAVENNY comes from a 3yo handicap but he has the
recent run and all the right backclass and is lightly raced and  thats a good profile and I dont see a better option. There is a question mark about the ground but there is no obvious reason why he should not appreciate it. I like ABERGAVENNY.

6/1 available widely including betfred, bet365, Ladbrokes

7/1 Betfair

check currest best odds at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-08-07/newmarket/14-05/betting/

Posted under horse racing tips