For those of you who prefer to do your own thing selection wise

here are some researched stats for Cheltenham Day 4 races.

 

 

CHELTENHAM 1.30

JCB Triumph Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo) 2m1f

* The Triumph Hurdle is for 4 year olds over 17f
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* English Horses have won the last 8 renewals
* I would avoid horses with 1 career start
* Horses that had 7 + previous races had a 0-31 record.
* 2 of the last winners had just 2 previous races
* Thats a change as 17 of the previous 18 had more
* Flat Bred runners seem to have the advantage.
* 15 of the last 16 winners were Flat Bred
* Look for a Flat Bred horse that stayed 12f on the flat
* Horses that ran within 2 weeks were 0-49
* The last 19 winners all ran after January 17th that year
* The Adonis Hurdle winner has won this 5 times
* Fillies won 3 renewals in 1993, 1994 and 2000
* All 3 won last time within the past month
* Horses that won their last race won 12 of the last 13
* You must have a horse 1st or 2nd last time
* Those that were not had a 0-158 record
* Horses that ran over 17f or more last time were 1-85
* Only Katchit won from 17f and he won a Champion Hurdle
* All 28 horses that came from Handicaps Lost
* Horses coming from Class 5 or lower struggled
* Those that had 3 or more runs doing that were 0-49
* All 36 horses that came from a Class 2 Hurdle lost
* All 85 maidens lost
* 14 of the last 16 winners had won twice that season
* Colts dont have a great record compared to Geldings
* Horses beaten 8 + lengths last time were 0-133

**********************************************
**********************************************

CHELTENHAM 2.05

Vincent O?Brien County Handicap Hurdle
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m1f

* The County Hurdle is a Handicap over 17f
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* Seasonal debutants have not won this race
* Horses with 1 race that season were 0-43
* You want a horse with at least 3 runs that season
* Over 100 horses had under 3 runs and none won
* All 16 winners had at least that and most had 4 +
* The last 18 winners had these runs since September
* 3-4 6 4 7 7 3 5 5 5 4 6 5 7 7 5 5 3 4
* You want a horse with 3-7 runs this season
* The last 18 winners had this number of hurdle runs
* 14 4 10 7 8 16 7 17 21 8 5 6 26 12 21 25 10 10 17
* You want a Horse that ran within the last 56 days.
* Only Sir Talbot (1999) won with a longer absence
* The last 17 winners were absence this many days
* 55 27 14 34 13 36 32 33 33 13 98 17 44 3 28 16 29 21 52
* All 56 horses that came from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Lost
* Last time out finishing position doesnt matter much
* Horses aged 5 or 6 have the best record
* 5 and 6 year olds won 39 of the last 49 renewals
* Horses aged 5 have won 4 of the last 6 renewals
* No horse aged 10 or older have won
* English horses aged 7 or more were 3-159
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that season were 0-95
* I wouldnt bet a horse aged 7 or more with under 5 runs
* 16 of the last 18 winners ran in at least 2 handicaps before
* Both high and low weighted winners have won
* I’d oppose the very high weighted horses
* Horses with 11st 10lbs or more are 0-18

**********************************************
**********************************************

CHELTENHAM 2.40

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
(Registered As The Spa Novices Hurdle Race)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 3 Miles
* There are just 6 renewals of this race
* The 5 winners were aged 7-6-7-6-7-5
* Horses aged 8 or more are 0-13
* The 6 winners were 4 2 2 1 1 2 on their previous starts
* The 6 winners had 15-6-8-8-5-4 hurdle and bumper runs
* They had the following number of hurdle starts
* 13 – 4 – 3 – 4 – 3 – 4
* I would ideally want 3 or 4 hurdle runs but at least 3
* Dont be put off from horses with absences
* The 6 winners had been absent this many days
* 33 47 61 48 97 27
* All 6 winners came from a Grade 2 Hurdle last time
* 2 of the 6 winners won a Cheltenham Grade 2 last time
* 5 of the 6 winners had ran at the distance before
* 5 of the 6 winners had ran at the track before
* The 6 winners had 9-4-3-4-3-5 runs that season

**********************************************
**********************************************
CHELTENHAM 3.20

Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* 14 of the last 15 winners had 6-14 previous Chase starts
* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009
* The last 14 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled
* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-82 record
* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse
* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record.
* They’ve won 16 of the last 17 Cheltenham Gold Cups.
* Horses aged 10 do not have a great record
* Horses aged 10 have a 1-85 record since 1992
* Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
* All 34 that ran in the last 17 years lost.
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* I wouldnt want a horse with fewer runs that season
* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine
* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.
* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form.
* 11 of the last 13 winners placed at a previous Festival.
* Allmost all past winners placed or fell last time out
* The only exception was last years winner 5th in a Grade 1
* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.
* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race
* Horses from a Grade 1 – Grade 2 chase last time are best
* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best
* Every winner since 1992 had managed that
* A Novice hasnt won the Gold Cup since 1974

**********************************************
**********************************************

CHELTENHAM 4.00

Christies Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup
(CLASS 2) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

* The Foxhunters is a Hunter Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* Foxhunters Chase and England lead 15-2 since 1992
* Horses aged 11 or more were 2-130 both winners a shock
* Its a race more often than not gone to younger horses.
* You can’t rule out any age as a 13yo won in 2004
* 6 recent winners ran within the last 15 days
* Two of these won at Newbury and 4 at Warwick.
* Anything that wins very recently is significant
* Seasonal debutants won several renewals
* I would either want a long absence or very short one
* Horses with Headgear won 1 race but score badly
* We haven’t yet had a female winner of this race (0-14)
* The last 14 winners had the following finishing positions
* W W W L UR W 2 W 3 W W W W W
* The majority have won their latest starts
* Or they would have probably won when falling
* 19 of the last 23 winners won on their previous start
* Horses that came from a Handicap Chase are 1-37
* 19 of the last 21 were brought up via Hunters or Points
* All 23 horses from a Novice or Maiden Hunter Chase Lost
* 38 horses lined up having previously ran in a Grade 1 race.
* None of the 38 won this race
* No past winner came from 2m 4f or shorter

**********************************************
**********************************************

CHELTENHAM 4.00

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle
(CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-140) 2m4f110y

* No strong Statistics with just 2 past renewals
* Both winners were 6 year olds
* Both had 11st 2lbs and more
* Both last ran in Febuary
* Both had 9-11 runs over Bumpers-Hurdles-Fences
* Both had ran over fences at least once before
* Both had ran 7-8 times over hurdles before
* Neither winner came up in distance
* Both had placed at Cheltenham before
* Both winners had 4 runs that season
* Neither had 3 or more career wins before

**********************************************
**********************************************

CHELTENHAM 5.15

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup
(Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m110y

* The Grand Annual is a 2m Handicap Chase
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* Recent winners had the follwing Chase runs
* 7 6 13 11 5 7 10 4 11 3 6 5 39 26
* Recent winners had the follwing Hurdle runs
* 30 7 12 3 12 11 6 1 11 7 25 2 8 14
* Recent winners had the follwing Chase-Hurdle runs
* 37 13 25 14 17 18 16 5 22 10 30 7 47 40
* Lightly raced Chasers were best since 1997
* The last 11 winners had these Handicap Chase runs
* 1 0 4 7 1 0 3 0 4 0 0 5
* 5 of the last 11 winners had never ran in Handicap Chase
* Another one had only ran in 1 Handicap Chase.
* The last 11 winners had these Novice Chase runs
* 6 6 8 4 4 6 7 4 7 3 6 7 Novice Chase runs
* The last 12 winners had no more than 12 runs in Chases.
* Strongly consider horses with 0-5 Handicap Chase runs
* Strongly consider horses with 3-8 Novice Chases runs
* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less.
* The last High Weighted winner was in 1998
* Horses with 11st 3lbs or more were 2-55
* One was exceptional winning many Grade 1 races
* The last 12 winners were aged 7 6 10 7 8 9 9 5 9 7 8 6
* Horses aged 10 or more won 3 renewals since 1991
* None of these came from 2m chases (0-36)
* Only 1 winner aged 10 or more was exposed (1-39)
* They all had form in Graded races
* Only 1 of the last 16 winners had just 1 run that season
* Between 3 and 5 runs that season is best
* Last years winner had 7 runs that year but thats unusual
* English horses absent 7 weeks or more were 0-64
* All winners bar Fota Island in 2005 ran within 7 weeks
* All 35 horses that dropped from 2m 5f trips or longer lost
* 16 of the last 17 winners had ran in Graded Class before
* The one that didnt spent most time Racing in France
* Predictably all 37 apprentice riders lost in this race
* Horses winning 8 or more races have a 0-56 record
* Unless Falling you want a 1-2-3-4 position last time out
* 35 of the last 40 winners placed in their previous chase
* A horse that placed or fell on their penultimate run helps
* Past winners had the following places in their last Chase
* 5-2-3-3-5-2-F-W-W-W-3-W-4-2

Posted under Major Horse Races

It is 2000 Guineas day today. There are some big
poweful meetings today. There’s plenty of rain in
the air as well and some changing in the ground.
Always a danger of overstretching yourself and
doing too much on this particular Saturday. The
message for full members has 7 previews including
five handicapsand the 2000 Guineas itself which is
fascinating.

The seven races start slowly and build up into a
strong finish. Early doors there are 2 Goodwood
handicaps and they are just standard bottom of
the message races. I take in the Guineas and the
Palace House Stakes but we are not really in the
territory we should be for account bets. I like a
good go at the Thirsk Hunt Cup and have done
well there over the years. This year I like a 16/1
chance but it is probably too difficult this year.

The two races I like best are two divisions of a
5f Handicap at Thirsk at 5.15pm and 5.45. Same
angles apply in both races. Sometimes Thirsk is
such a seductive track as the angles there can
be out of this world but it is a track that throws
up results that make the angles look ridiculous
at times but despite that I feel strong in these 2
races and thats where I feel we should be going.

For full members there are Account Bets in these two thirsk races.

For the free blog however we will take a look at the the big race of the day
the 200 Guineas

****************************************************
****************************************************

NEWMARKET 3.05

s james.com 2000 Guineas Stakes
(Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (3yo)1m

Evs St Nicholas Abbey, 7/1 Elusive Pimpernel, 9/1 Canford Cliffs 10/1 Awzaan,
12/1 Fencing Master, 20/1 Al Zir, 20/1 Dick Turpin 20/1 Inler, 20/1 Xtension,
28/1 Makfi, 33/1 Hearts Of Fire 40/1 Viscount Nelson, 66/1 Fair Trade,
100/1 Buzzword 100/1 Elspeth´s Boy, 100/1 Lord Zenith,
100/1 Red Jazz 200/1 Audacity Of Hope, 200/1 Greyfriarschorista.

The 2000 Guineas is fascinating as ever. There are so many
issues in this race. I can throw killer stats at everything in the race.
It depends mainly on ST NICHOLAS ABBEY and whether
Aidan O Brien’s horse needs further.
Those people opposing  ST NICHOLAS ABBEY have valid arguments.
It is true his Sire has a poor Group 1 record with Milers.
It is  also true running over a mile as a 2 year old has not been a good thing to
do in this race but it has been done and he is clearly going to be top class.
The issue for me is what can I sensibly oppose him with. I think there are few alternatives.

With ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL he is already well held by the
favourite. I dont see winning the Craven as a big help and
he is also a middle distance horses. I think he find Stall one hurts him.
Since 2007 Newmarket’s had 25 races with 14 or  more runners.
Stalls 1-2-3 had a 1-72 record in these races and that sole winner was
Sea The Stars a wonderhorses.  I’d argue ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL may
be in trouble from his draw trying to get into the race.
AWZAAN also has a poor draw in Stall 2 and has to come from a 6f race
and has never run at further than 6f. I read in the paper recently that in the last
50 years there was only 1 winner of this race that never previously ran at 7f
or more and that was in 1999 and a race generally viewed as one of the worst
Guineas in years and over 100 of these horses like AWZAAN had tried.
He lacks a good profile and a good draw. FENCING MASTER makes limited appeal.
He looks like he wants further just as both his parents did and all his siblings.
CANFORD CLIFFS did not look certain to stay the 7f in the Greenham so
there has to be serious doubts about him staying a mile and beaten in  a trial is
hardly a ringing endorsement. I cant have INLER as a horse coming from 6f with
just 1 career start. I’d question whether XTENSION has the class. AL ZIR needs to improve
so much and has already been beaten up by the favourite in
the Racing Post Trophy. I can see the argument to suggest
that DICK TURPIN is overpriced at 25/1 and could place. I
do think there are good arguments about every runners. In
the end it came down to ST NICHOLAS ABBEY and I dont
see a horse I can offer as a sensible alternative. I’d pick him.

SELECTION

ST NICHOLAS ABBEY

Check the link below for best current odds

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-05-01/newmarket/15-05/betting/

Posted under Major Horse Races