Mathematician 429

No Account Bet

1 Selection

Newmarket 5.05

RUN FOR EDE’S   2/1

Just one selection on a Rain hit Saturday.

There is one bit of 9/4 (bet365) but RUN FOR EDE’S is 2/1 with most bookmakers.

I have done something in the Stewards Cup but have no strong view there after Goodwood has changed the ground. Other than that there are Five Previews in the message. Happy enough with these races but there is only one horse I fancy enough to make a selection and thats RUN FOR EDE’S. Not a brilliant price but she only has 6 opponents. The weather is spoling the summer at the moment and when its lashing down as it is today all we can do is keep mistakes down to a minimum and be selective. Thats why I havent had an account bet today. RUN FOR EDE’S ran really well last week on a Grade 1 track in a much better race. I dont see any of her rivals achieving that level. In a weird twist of handicapping because she’s been underrated for two recent wins and Sir Boss has been hit hard for two recent wins RUN FOR EDE’S gets quite a bit of weight from Sir Boss when really her last two runs suggest that she ought to be conceeding weight not recieving it. I think that makes her look solid. She is my only bet today and I just want to get one winner on a day the weather throws all kinds of danger at us. There will be the planned Sunday Message tomorrow.

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T O D A Y ‘ S    R A C I N G

One selection yesterday. DEAUVILLE FLYER won having
landed a big evening gamble. I suppose it all depends on what sort of price you got. He was 6/1 in plenty of places yesterday and 5/1 for most of the day but the money came in form him late and he has been returned a ridiculous 9/4. Once he was in a dule with Crocus Rose I was always confident he would stay better. Nice way to end a difficult July. Cant do any harm to the confidence and we start a Fresh month today.

Unusually a 2.30 message today on a Saturday. I know from
experience just how difficult todays cards are.
I felt my best chances came later on and with a poor weather forecast there is much more sense in sending a later message and allowing a bit more time to play some videos.

NEWMARKET 5.05

SPORTINGBET HANDICAP (CLASS 4)(4yo+ 0-85) 1m4f

2/1 Run For Ede’s, 9/4 Sir Boss, 5/1 Mubrook,  10/1 Clear Reef, 16/1 Force Group, 25/1 Rowan Rio, 33/1 Coeur De Lionne.

SELECTION -  RUN FOR EDE’S

The market has chosen SIR BOSS as the favourite ahead of
RUN FOR EDE’S and I dont really see why thats justified. I
fully respect SIR BOSS as an improving 4 year old and I dont have any strong objections to him at all but he has won his last 2 races which were only 0-58 and 0-77 races and his last run in that 0-77 was only a Class 5 handicap and having been raised 11lbs by the handicapper he now finds himself topweight. His last 2 handicap wins were hardly in quality races much as he did it well. Consider the fact RUN FOR EDE’S has just also won two handicaps. They were in 0-85 and 0-77 handicaps no worse at all than SIR BOSS and RUN FOR EDE’S has also ran a very decent 4th in a Class 2 handicap. RUN FOR EDE’S was a  strong 4th in a 0-104 handicap at Ascot. It was a C2 Heritage handicap. 12 of her 15 opponents would not even be allowed to run in this race. RUN FOR EDE’S was beaten only 1.75 lengths from 4lbs out of the handicap. Whilst SIR BOSS has seen his rating jump from 68 to 74 and now 85 its highly interesting that RUN FOR EDE’S having achieved a lot more
has seen her rating only go from 70 to 74. She has only gone up 4lbs for winning two handicaps and running 4th in a 0-104 handicap. Bizzarely that means SIR BOSS has to concede 9lbs and a jockeys allowance to RUN FOR EDE’S who surely has achieved much more. RUN FOR EDE’S surely has to be better value around 3/1 notwithstanding SIR BOSS may have more improvement. I think at these weights RUN FOR EDE’S has to be the better option. I respect some of the others but she must be hard to beat. MUBROOK has a chance and he is fine  statistically as a lightly raced 4 year old. He hasnt won a race though and he wasnt handicapped instead just running on merit as a 3 year old and thats left me thinking that he may well be rated accurately and may not be thrown in off his current mark. Neither FORCE GROUP or ROWAN RIO strike me as horses about to win. CLEAR REEF is another big runner with the ground coming right but he is both exposed and coming down over 2f in distance and horses that did that didnt score that well. He is a danger though but I dont see a better option than RUN FOR EDE’S

SELECTION -  RUN FOR EDE’S

Posted under horse racing tips

My Hennessy conclusion is that the bet is both a win bet on ALBERTAS RUN and a saver on BIG BUCKS but like  many I’m worried about the ground for ALBERTAS RUN. Midweek I was confident he would win this race but many little things have conspired against him and my confidence has drained a little away from him. I have backed him at a shorter price than he is now and the potential for me to have the race wrong now is a strong possibility.

I hope he wins but I cant pretend I am as bullish as I was 48 hours ago.

This is certainly not Account Bet strength but I hope you enjoy the analysis and find it an aid if trying to unravel the Hennessey yourself.
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NEWBURY 2:40

HENNESSY GOLD CUP CHASE GRADE 3  (4yo+) 3m2f110y

Racing Post Forecast Prices
6/1 Air Force One,  Big Buck´s, 15/2 Island Flyer, 8/1 Albertas Run, 11/1 Oedipe, 14/1 Slim Pickings, 16/1 Dear Villez,  High Chimes,  Royal County Star, 20/1 Snoopy Loopy,  Verasi, 25/1 Knowhere, 50/1 Always Waining,  Madison Du Berlais,  Monkerhostin,  My Will.

For Current Live Odds Click Here

SELECTION- ALBERTAS RUN

SAVER - BIG BUCKS

This race strongly favours lightly raced, progressive second-season chasers.  If  you look at the last 15 years of the Hennessy Gold Cup it has been dominated by horses that had between 6 and 20 races before. We haven’t had a winner that had under 5 starts. On the other end of the scale Horses that had More than 20 Career races had a disastrous 0-59 record in this race. All 59 got beaten and not that Many were Placed. You don’t want a seasoned handicapper who has limited potential and whose form is clearly an open book and who has had ample time to be accurately assessed by the Handicapper. These types end up giving weight to horses that have far more scope and Improvement and horses that are very well handicapped. The following tables show how many runs the recent past winners have had and how many handicap runs they have had as well.

* Horses with 6-20 career starts dominate the Hennessy

10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16

* Horses with Under 8 runs in Handicaps dominate the Hennessy

0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8

* Finishing 1st-2nd or 3rd last time is important

Recent form seems important. You must have been placed 1st 2nd or 3rd last time out. I have looked at every winner of this going back to 1987 and every one of those winners managed a 1-2-3 Placing last time out. Such is the test of this Class race that we should be ignoring anything that did not have the ability to place last time assuming they do not have the Class to win a Hennessy or the jumping prowess. Since 1987 there have been well over 100 Horses that failed to finish placed or better on their latest start. None of these 100 + runners won.

I don’t want VERASI. I do like the horse. I had him as a saver in last years Sun Alliance at 25/1 so its nothing personal. You can argue that he is over exposed for a race like this but he has only had 6 chase starts so that’s harsh. He fails the statistic that demands a 1-2-3 finish last time out but the one factor I really do not forgive him for is his flat form. This is a Flat bred horse that started his career on the flat. You can go back decades and you wont find any Hennessy winner starting his career on the flat in England.

ROYAL COUNTY STAR  looks all wrong. We haven’t had a winner warm up over hurdles. The run he had wasn’t good enough anyway. He did not achieve enough last time. His handicap mark looks stiff and he doesn’t have half the improvement of most of these.

I don’t want KNOWWHERE with top weight. That’s a tall order. The two recent Top weight winners Denman and Trablogan were both Sun Alliance winners and KNOWWHERE looks exposed.  He was well beaten in last years race with 10lbs less weight. He has a career high mark and having ran in 12 handicap chase’s is not the profile of a Hennessy winner.

SNOOPY LOOPY is also exposed and has had far more handicap runs than ideal. He was a huge price for this race before he won last week in Kauto Star’s race at 33/1. There must be a huge doubt he can reproduce his best just 7 days later. I have to take him on.

SLIM PICKINGS isn’t for me. I don’t like the fact he comes from a 2 mile race which is not a good thing or a successful thing in this race. I think he looks exposed. Is a horse that has lost his last 14 races likely to win a Hennessy. I don’t think so.

HIGH CHIMES is a seasonal debutant. Several recent winners were making their debuts that season but they were younger. HIGH CHIMES is a 9 year old. If you look at the last 17 Hennessy’s and look at seasonal debutants aged 8 or more you find a 0-42 record. That’s a worry for him. So to is his handicap mark as he won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last March off 127 and has to run from 141 today. There hasn’t been a similar winner of the Hennessy in recent memory so I would not see HIGH CHIMES as my selection in this years race.

DEAR VILLEZ can’t be discounted but he isn’t for me. He won well last time in Ireland and passes most trends in this race. He is clearly Paul Nicholls’s second string. I wonder if he has the class. After all go back to last years Cheltenham festival.  DEAR VILLEZ ran and fell in the Jewson Novice Handicap. Compare that with ALBERTAS RUN and AIR FORCE ONE and others that were running in the Grade 1 Sun Alliance Chase and only have to concede a couple of lbs to him. I just don’t see him as good enough.

I don’t want to go with OEDIPE. He is a 6yo seasonal debutant. I haven’t got a big problem with that at all as State of Play (2006) was one. However if you look at the seasonal debutants that have won this race - they had all ran in better class than he has. They were all more experienced. They all ran far better than he did last time and none of them stepped up as far in trip. OEDIPE is a notorious poor work horse so he is has hardly been galloping the house down. He is also a French Bred and there hasn’t been many of those win the race. I think he is out of his depth and I worry his trainer says he is a “hard horse to get fit”.

ISLAND FLYER

One the face of it this horse has a strong profile and comes from a decent trial race and its easy to understand why there has been lots of ante post money for him this week. That said the value has probably gone now. The one trends worry I have with him is his class. ISLAND FLYER  is rated 132 and that would make him the lowest rated winner in at least 20 years. Every winner since the 1980’s was rated 135 or more and its just in the back of my mind that off bottom weight in the last two furlongs he could just be fighting to get home in this class on soft ground and his low rating worries me. After all 9 months ago as he was winning a cheap novice chase others were running and winning Sun Alliances and his flaw could be whether he has the class to win.

AIR FORCE ONE

This horse must have a great chance. Statistically he is not unlike One Man who won this in 1994 and both came from the Sun Alliance and AIR FORCE ONE achieved more in that race and had more experience. Both were 6 year olds with 1 handicap run and one run that season. One Man (1994) won with 10st though and AIR FORCE ONE has a much bigger weight to carry. Recent Hennessy’s have shown high weights are fine in this race and AIR FORCE ONE has a strong overall profile. There are two issues to consider. One may be the general theory that he may be best on right handed tracks. The other is whether he wants soft ground. In terms of the Left Handed Track I don’t think there is enough evidence to suggest that. He has ran 5 times on left handed tracks. Even if you ignore his win at Fontwell when odds on in a Figure 8 track you cant draw any conclusions. His other races were 2-5-5-6 on left handed tracks. One of the times he was 50/1. Another was his chasing debut pitched into a Grade 2 chase. He was well beaten in the Sun Alliance at Cheltenham but his 2nd was also there in the Spa Hurdle at the festival and there is nothing wrong with that. The track wouldn’t be a major concern for me as the evidence is not compelling. In terms of the ground you would worry if it was soft. His connections have given excuses before for defeats blaming soft and dead ground. There has to be a slight stamina doubt on the ground as well so he isn’t bomb proof. I also don’t like the fact he has run on the Flat before albeit in Germany as very few Hennessy winners started racing on the flat. I see him and BIG BUCKS as the main contenders for the “saver” but much as I greatly respect  his chance I prefer others marginally.

BIG BUCKS

Initially I felt that the favourite was worth opposing as a 5 year old but I would not be too dogmatic about that now. I have had a big rethink about 5 year olds as they have won similar other races at this time of year. BIG BUCKS is a 5 year old. The Hennessy was first run in 1957 and the 51 renewals of the race have never thrown  up a 5 year old winner. That must be considered a  problem for BIG BUCKS but not many have tried - just 4 in the last two decades and hardly any of the 5 year olds that have run have been fancied and they have had a 3rd with Eudipe in 1997. I couldn’t make him a negative on the back of a statistic that’s admittedly worrying but more importantly not proven. I think trip and ground demand he is a saver

SELECTION

ALBERTAS RUN

I really fancy this horse. He is trying to be the 3rd Sun Alliance Chase winner to win this race in the last 4 seasons after Denman and Trablogan did the double. On his profile he is Similar to Kings Road the 2000 winner in that they both ran in the Cheltenham Bumper early in their career and then the Sun Alliance. He is an even closer type to 2005 winner Trablogan who was also owned by Trevor Hemmings as ALBERTAS RUN is. Trablogan (2005) also ran in the Champion Bumper and won the Sun Alliance as well and ALBERTAS RUN attempts to do the same. He is the right age and a second season chaser. Statistically the only trend he fails was that he wasn’t 1-2-3 last time out. He was 4th of 4 on his seasonal debut but I can forgive him that. He probably was not trained for that race. The trip was too short and he met a top class horse. He was clearly unfit and that was the same Carlisle chase that his trainer ran Exotic Dancer a couple of years ago and he flopped that running a lifeless race before winning the Paddy Power Gold cup next time out. ALBERTAS run holds two wins over Air Force One and has a touch of class as a Sun Alliance Chase winner. His owner will want to win this race again and I think ALBERTAS RUN is good value to win the race. His chance will come down to the ground. If its not too soft he will win for me and if it is it lets in Big Bucks the saver.

Regards

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

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Posted under Major Horse Races

Saturday October 25th

Below is a snippet from my full member message today

Newbury 4.30

BLAZING BAILEY 5/2

BLAZING BAILEY is one of those “If” horses. He is a handicap certainty. He has to win “If” he is fit and “If” he can reproduce his form back on the flat. That makes it possible that he could either win this on the bridle or get beaten out of sight and few will have a confident idea which is more likely. I take the view that at 11/4
he could be the bet of the weekend and off the handicap mark he has he has to be backed and I will be surprised if he is beaten. He could well be Account Status. I have tipped many Account Bets with less confidence than I have in him but as I can not if asked assure you of his fitness I can not really make him one but he looks good to me and looks the best bet today.

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N E W B U R Y

I want to avoid most of Newbury today. Only the last race makes any betting appeal. I dont want to spend much time on the juvenile maidens or the big 2yo races as the angles in these races are not good enough to profit from. MONITOR CLOSELY would have to be the selection in the 1.10 race especially as I dont fancy King’s Song but these short priced maidens in big fields are usually best placed in each way doubles and with unknown dangers it only takes one to lower his colours. I would expect him to just about win.

I would have to mention BLAZING BAILEY though in the 4.30 race. Despite being a 6 year old that has not run since April he has been over hurdles for several years now where he has Top Class staying form over hurdles including a placed effort on the Triumph Hurdle and the Stayers Hurdle and a Grade 1 hurdle win in Ireland. This is a horse that
hasn’t seen the Flat since October 2005. Back then he was rated 62 on the Flat. His Hurdling Career has taken off and he was now reached a rating of 163 so he is now 101 lbs lower rated on the Flat and he has to be thrown in off 62. Normally an unscientific guide would be that you could expect to see a hurdles rating about 40-45lbs better than a
flat rating so for BLAZING BAILEY to have one 101 lbs higher does suggest that if he is anything near fit he must surely go close off a low Flat rating of 62. He looks a Handicap good thing to me and he may well end up as the best bet this weekend assuming he can run to form after an absence.

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11/4 earlier when full members got this. Best Price now 5/2 in several places including Ladbrokes, betfred and PaddyPower

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Posted under horse racing tips