Not the strongest bet this year but I am having a personal

smaller stakes dabble at what I feel are value odds.

Lingfield 3.55

Low grade handicap. MISS BOUNTY is not a
statistical pick. I’m not convinced any of the
runners are statistical choices. I like her odds.
All year I have been banging on about her sire
not getting winners over 12f and more and It
interests me she drops in trip now to what is
her best distance as I explain below. She also
has good excuses for her last two runs and it
is likely she was not fit. She is the forgotten
horse in this race and 10/1 seems a big price.
I am going to leave her as a Mention for the
following reason. She does not have the usual
headgear on. She hasn’t yet won without any
headgear yet. She won last March when it was
applied after several runs without any and I
don’t know how significant that might be. It
is a Gap in my Knowledge or at least I don’t
feel I can overlook it with confidence. That
stops me betting her hard. I might well have
a saver on Beggers Belief but I do prefer the
mare MISS BOUNTY at the price and have
plans to bet her. Happy to ignore the issues
with headgear for my bet but not happy to
take the chance for any stronger selection.

10/1 at betfred – Ladbrokes – Coral – s james

.

Posted under horse racing tips

Some quick thoughts on L e i c e s t e r   3.20

* This is a Fillies Handicap just short of 10f
* Leicester has 3 past renewals of this race
* There are 76 similar races elsewhere
* Noted all 3 winners of this race had at least 4 runs that year
* Noted there were several here with just 1 run this year
* In 76 races I found 4 winners with just one run that year
* None had 13 or more runs and KEN4S GIRL fails that
* Dont like her aged 7 with 1 run and a career high mark
* GALE GREEN – GOLDEN DELICIOUS are wrong types
* No horse won with 1 run this year from 8f or shorter
* EVENING DRESS fails that
* HAYAKU also fails that as well
* BALLETLOU doesnt interest me first time out
* Horses aged 4 with 13 + runs won 10 races
* None had just 1-2-3 runs that year (0-22)
* ASHKALARA fails that and wouldnt be my choice
* SING SWEETLY technically fails that same angle
* I would ignore that as she has been shaping well
* SING SWEETLY could be the forgotten horse here
* She is unsafe but she is far too big at 16/1
* COSMIC MOON is 3 and drops from a 12f race
* The only 3yo’s doing that had more runs that season

S h o r t l i s t

* NIGHT LILY is exposed and comes from 8f
* Not a good record from similar horses
* None won without a run in the past 2 weeks
* She also has to prove she stays this far
* She is well handicapped and well raced this year
* That counts for plenty so she is shortlistable
* BOLLIN DOLLY is not right statistically aged 8 from 12f
* No horse aged 6 or more won coming from 12f
* She did win the race last year and is well handicapped
* She is also well raced this year
* Those factors get her on the shortlist
* SING SWEETLY is shortlistable for earlier reasons
* APACHE GLORY won a 3yo handicap last time
* With 5-6 runs and 46 runs this year she is like 2 winners
* APACHE GLORY is a positive

SELECTION

APACHE GLORY – Win Bet 6/1 betfred s james Coral
SING SWEETLY – Win Bet 16/1 bet365 William Hill

Posted under horse racing tips

T h i r s k 3.15

7/2 Dream Win, 7/2 Extraterrestrial, 9/2 Mountain Cat
11/2 Daring Dream, 13/2 Academy Blues, 10/1 Chosen Forever
12/1 Champagne Style, 16/1 Without Prejudice, Aerodynamic.

This is a Mile Handicap. I looked at all of these races and
I feel EXTRATERRESTRIAL is questionable as favourite.
He is well handicapped but exposed horses aged 6 or more
with 1 run this year coming up in trip had a 1-42 record in
254 similar races. That sole winner had a recent race and
he has been off 41 days and I see him as unsafe. That said
Do Not lay him. Not when well handicapped and when we
have a host of miserable profiles. DARING DREAM fails
similar angles. MOUNTAIN CAT is unsafe winning after
an absence at his age. DREAM WIN is the wrong age for
a lightly raced debutant. CHOSEN FOREVER has a long
absence. My best profile is ACADEMY BLUES. He was
below par last time but had excuses when beaten at Ascot
and I found 3 winners like him which is more than I can
say for any others. ACADEMY BLUES is my selection.

10/1 each way at bet365, BoyleSports , Coral

Guy

Posted under horse racing tips

This not the race I am directing paying clients to bet in today.

It is however the race most asked about  in my inbox.

Here are my stats and quick thoughts.

AYR 3.25

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase
(Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m110y

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* Previous winners had the following runs that season
* 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-116
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 5 Chase starts.
* Horses aged 7 have a weak 1-50 record
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 2-80 record
* None have won since 1997
* No horse placed at the Cheltenham festival has won this race
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Grade 1 form
* They both had only 10st weight as well
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* No winners came from Hurdles
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-81
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* 11 of the last 12 winners ran within 60 days
* 7 of the last 9 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-16 record in this
* The last 11 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out

I came down to 4 horses to consider.
Outsiders BALLYFITZ and REGAL HEIGHTS do have reasonable profiles.
I see MINELLA FOUR STAR and
ALWAYS RIGHT as having every chance as well.
It would be easy to go with ALWAYS RIGHT but perhaps as a saver
with MINELLA FOUR STAR the main choice of the pair.

18/1 ish available on Betfair

Posted under horse racing tips

NEWMARKET 2.35

bet365 Ben Marshall Stakes (Listed Race)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m

9/4 Alexandros, 5/2 Secrecy, 11/2 Nationalism, 7/1 Kingsfor 8/1 The Cheka, 12/1 Balducci, 14/1 Mia´s Boy, 50/1 Letty.

This is a Listed Class race over 8f. Newmarket has 24 similar  races at this time of year.
I can tell you horses from a 7f race  had a 0-60 record in these 24 races.
SECRECY – MIA´S BOY  KINGSFORT and BALDUCCI all have that against them.
It’s easy to oppose LETTY. This leaves 3 runners and all 3 have decent chances in an open race.
ALEXANDROS is one option  but I didnt see a good enough case for him.
Only 4 of the 24 winners were exposed and all 4 dropped in distance and none like
ALEXANDROS came from a Mile or less (0-29) and as he has just 1 run since July I wasnt convinced.
THE CHEKA  may well go well but he also has just one run since July and it  may leave him short of full fitness.
NATIONALISM for me.

NATIONALISM  is a 3 year old and they have a good record
and several lighter raced ones like him have won. I think it is very significant his half brother won this race in 2004
and he is being asked to do the same.
His low draw killed his Chance  in the Cambridgeshire last time.
He started favourite for that  race and there were rumours he was a Group horse at the time.
With more improvement than most I love his chance in this.

SELECTION – NATIONALISM Each Way 6/1 bet365 – Coral – VC

Posted under horse racing tips