Saturday October 2nd

1 Daily Reccomendation

Newmarket 3.00

RAINFALL 7/1

Each Way

8/1 bet365 – Tote
15/2 Skybet – VC
7/1 betfred -Blue Square – BoyleSports -Corals -PaddyPower

NEWMARKET 3.00

Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes
(Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1)(3yo+) 1m

4/1 Music Show, 4/1 Sahpresa, 11/2 Seta, 11/2 Strawberrydaiquiri 6/1 Spacious,
7/1 Rainfall, 14/1 Aviate, 33/1 Alsace Lorraine 33/1 Hen Night, 33/1 Sent From Heaven, 40/1 Lahaleeb.

The Sun Chariot Stakes has 10 past renewals as a Group 2
or Group 1 race. In these races horses beaten more than 4
lengths last time out were 0-30 in this race.
All winners of this race were either 3 or 4 year olds.
SAHPRESA has that against her. If you look at horses with only 1-2-3 runs this season you found 2 winners.
None were aged 4 or more and None had 9 or more career starts and SAHPRESA fails both those angles.
Horses like SPACIOUS with 13 or more starts struggled.
Only 1 past winner had that many runs and that was only a 3 year old.
STRAWBERRYDAIQUIRI has been absent a while and I can’t match her.
AVIATE drops from  a 10f race and needed to have won last time to have been like any past winner.
I would shortlist 3 horses in this. It’s hard to ignore MUSIC SHOW or SETA and both look like big runners.
That said 3 year olds like MUSIC SHOW and SETA coming from an 8f race only had a 1-25 record
and  that winner was less exposed than MUSIC SHOW and was lighter raced than both.
I prefer RAINFALL from these 3.

* Horses aged 3
* Coming from a 7f race
* Form in Group 1 of Group 2 races
* 4 or more runs that season
* There were 3 horses with that profile in this race
* All 3 horses won in 2000 2006 and 2007
* RAINFALL has that profile
* Admittedly none 7 runs that season they all had 4-5-6 runs
* None tried though with 7 runs though and I’m overlooking that
* RAINFALL each way is my bet

I think she has been underestimate in a nicely frame race
and horses with very similar profiles were W W W in the
race so I see her as a very interesting runner.
She has one or two lengths to find with a couple of these but
that’s not impossible especially on this ground and I think
she has a serious chance of beating these from the best age group.

Posted under horse racing tips

CHELTENHAM  4.40

FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP
HANDICAP CHASE (AMATEUR RIDERS) (CLASS 2)
(5yo+,0-140) 3m1f110y

Cheltenham 4.40

PRETTY STAR  £30 Each Way 25/1
BOWLEAVES £20 Each Way 25/1

Pretty Star is 25/1 with Tote-betfred – Hills -Ladbrokes
Pretty Star is 25/1 with Skybet -Blue Square – Paddy P
Bowleaves is 25/1 with Skybet -betfred -Boyles -bet365
Bowleaves is 22/1 with Corals -VC – Tote

Above prices valid at time of send to full members
For current odds see http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/thursday/4-40

7/1 Poker De Sivola, 8/1 Shouldhavehadthat, 9/1 Aggie’s Lad, 12/1 Alexanderthegreat, 12/1 Newbay Prop, 14/1 High Chimes, 16/1 Character Building, 20/1 Bowleaze, 20/1 Double Dizzy, 20/1 Go For One, 20/1 Irish Raptor, 22/1 Oodachee, 25/1 Arteea, 25/1 Butler’s Cabin, 25/1 Ice Tea, 25/1 Le Duc, 25/1 Le Toscan, 25/1 Pretty Star, 25/1 Sherwoods Folly, 33/1 Alright Now M’Lad, 33/1Brooklyn Breeze, 33/1 Openide, 40/1 Without A Doubt, 50/1 Warpath.

* This is an Amateur Riders Handicap Chase
* There has been 15 renewals since 1993
* There has been 65 handicap chases at this meeting
* Thats 65 handicap chases at every distance
* ARTEEA is out aged 10 absent 383 days
* Thats too much to do with 11st 12lbs
* Look at the 65 handicap chases at the festival
* Only 3 winners had 11st 8lbs or more in a 3-125 record
* Of those all 56 horses that came from Graded races lost
* ARTEEA fails that and is rejected
* CHARACTER BUILDING also fails that
* No handicap chase at the festival went to his type
* A Horse with 11st 8lbs unplaced last time out
* HIGH CHIMES also fails that and has 11st 12lbs
* In 65 Handicaps no horse had 11st 8lbs or more like him
* None were as inexperience or lost by as far as him last time
* ICE TEA fails the same statistics
* He has 11st 11lbs and didnt place last time out
* With his absence he looks opposable
* SHERWOODS FOLLY technically fails that as well
* He has 11st 8lbs and Pulled up last time
* No Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chase went that way
* None went to a horse unplaced last time with that weight
* In 65 handicaps I looked at 7 year olds
* None won carrying 11st or more (0-40)
* SHERWOODS FOLLY is trying to become the first
* BUTLER´S CABIN also fails the same statistic
* There must be a chance he is being targeted at the National
* His weight and Absence also looks a problem
* He ought to need the run today and isnt for me
* I am oppisng exposed horses with 1 run this season
* None of the 65 Festival Handicaps went that way
* No horse won with 1 run that year when exposed
* None managed it with a months absence either
* WITHOUT A DOUBT fails that and is rejected
* LE DUC is out as exposed and having 1 run this year
* He comes from a Hunter Chase as well
* No Handicap at this festival went to a Hunter Chase runner
* WARPATH looks impossible to fancy
* OPENIDE looks very hard to fancy at the moment
* Horses aged 11 or more have a 0-55 record in this race
* BROOKLYN BREEZE fails that and is rejected
* He comes from a Hunter Chase and no horse did that
* No Hunter Chaser has won a Festival Handicap before
* ALEXANDERTHEGREAT is also out aged 11
* In 65 handicap chases over any trip at this festival
* Only 7 horses won aged 11 or more
* None of these defied a months break as he does
* LE TOSCAN comes from a Graduation Chase
* Horses not from handicaps were 0-42 in this race
* LE TOSCAN also has a 118 day break
* I looked at all 65 handicap chases at the festival
* No horse had 7 weeks off without coming from a handicap
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT comes from a Novice Handicap
* Horses that came from Novice races in this race were 0-42
* I looked at Novice Handicap Chasers in 65 Cheltenham races
* In the 65 races No horse won coming from a Novice Handicap
* All 19 lost and none managed a 1-2-3 placing in them
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT also has a 73 day absence
* I looked at English horses absent 7 weeks or more
* In every handicap chase run at this festival these types were poor
* No horse aged 7 or less managed it (0-43) as he tries to
* Those that won last time out as he did were 0-41
* No horse managed it from any kind of Novice race
* The only 7yo winners of this race ran within a month
* In 65 handicaps I looked at 7 year olds
* None won carrying 11st or more (0-40)
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT fails that as well
* SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT has a lot to prove for me
* ALRIGHT NOW M´LAD has 11st 7lbs and an 8 week break
* In 65 English handicaps horses absent 7 weeks struggled
* Those like him with 11st or more were 2-88
* He doesnt look to be in good enough for for this
* BOWLEAZE has a similar problem
* He has a 11st 3lbs and a 96 day break
* OODACHEE has a very hard task
* He is absent 166 days yet a 10 year old and exposed
* He also has 11st 5lbs and steps up from 2m 4f
* AGGIE´S LAD was beaten 80 lengths in a Beginners Chase
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse was beaten in a novice or beginners chase and won
* That would be a big problem for me
* I am sure he is underpriced as he is trained by A Martin
* Irish runners have a miserable record in this as well
* GO FOR ONE has a lot of weight with 11st 5lbs
* In this race horses with 11st 3lbs or more were 3-101
* None were aged 10 or more as he is
* Those like him running within 7 weeks were 1-79
* He may just be handicapped a bit high
* NEWBAY PROP pulled up in this race last year
* He probably has a better chance this year
* He doesnt look to be that well handicapped
* An absence and his weight wont make it easy
* The 15 renewals of this race are interesting
* Horses that came from 22f or shorter were 1-63
* Thats a big worry for some horses in this race
* BUTLER´S CABIN -ALRIGHT NOW M´LAD
* OODACHEE -WARPATH -AGGIE´S LAD fail that
* Course winners have a weak 1-75 record in 15 years
* HIGH CHIMES -BUTLER´S CABIN -OPENIDE fail that
* IRISH RAPTOR -LE DUC ALEXANDERTHEGREAT fail that
* Exosed horses (21+ runs) with 1-2-3 runs that season were 0-37
* ARTEEA -BUTLER´S CABIN -BUTLER´S CABIN fail that
* WITHOUT A DOUBT -LE DUC -BROOKLYN BREEZE do
* Exposed horses that were 1-2-3-4 last time out score badly
* They have a poor 1-59 record
* OODACHEE -BOWLEAZE- LE DUC fail that
* BROOKLYN BREEZE also fails that
* No horse aged 10 or more had under 4 runs that season
* All 40 that tried lost in this race
* HIGH CHIMES – ARTEEA -WITHOUT A DOUBT fail that
* LE DUC – NEWBAY PROP -BROOKLYN BREEZE also fail that
* All 38 horses that came from a Novice race lost
* The following horses all fail this
* AGGIE´S LAD – SHOULDHAVEHADTHAT -POKER DE SIVOLA

POSSIBLES

* POKER DE SIVOLA has been the big gamble
* POKER DE SIVOLA is a 6 year old
* Horses aged under 7 like him are 0-19 in this race
* He also comes from a race that wasnt a handicap
* All past 15 winners of this came from a handicap
* In 65 Festival Handicaps only 6 winners were under 7 years old
* They struggled in the 3m handicaps (1-31)
* No horse that age were unplaced last time as he was
* Its a lot to do for a horse with 11st 3lbs in weight
* Especially for a horse with just 5 chase starts
* IRISH RAPTOR was unlucky last time crashing into a rail
* He is on a winning handicap mark from a top stable
* I wouldnt rule him out in this race but the jockey worries me
* He has just 4 rides and a Hunter Chase win and never ridden here
* IRISH RAPTOR may also be a small field horse
* DOUBLE DIZZY also has a lot of weight
* I dont think he is completely out of this
* I cant find a similar enough winner though

SELECTIONS

PRETTY STAR

* PRETTY STAR is pretty interesting
* He has a very similar profile to the 1998 and 2000 winners
* He also comes from the same prep race as the 1998 winner
* He comes from the same Ludlow Handicap 14 days ago
* His chance may depend on whether he has anything in hand
* PRETTY STAR has to be shortlisted

BOWLEAZE is almost statistically perfect but one or two
minor flawes but I forgive him that. He is from a stable that excel in this race. He is best fresh and several recent winners had his profile and I give him a massive chance in this race.

Venetia Williams may well prefer Alexanderthegreat to her
other runners one of whom I like a lot in PRETTY STAR.
You can argue that on the form of their last race its easier to prefer Alexanderthegreat – and I do think he is a danger but I disagree that he should be the stable choice and feel there are good reasons to prefer PRETTY STAR.

Posted under Major Horse Races

Mathematician 155

Friday 29th August

1 Account Bet

Todays Account Bet

Hamilton 4.15

SUPERIOR STAR

£50 Each Way 8/1

£100 Staked on the Day

SUPERIOR STAR is 8/1 with Hills -s james-betdirect – Tote
SUPERIOR STAR is 15/2 with Blue Square -Corals -888Sport

SATURDAY

Going to change strategy tomorrow and take all the pressure
off the Saturday message. I will post trends and angles for most races on Saturday on the message board this afternoon and evening. The very best races I want to bet in I will save for the E Mail. It will probably be a 2-3-4 race message. You will be able to see every angle elsewhere on the message board or if you cant access that or don’t want you just drop me an e mail and I will send you all the other thoughts separately. I am doing this as Sunday racing has to be covered and we have 2 Friday messages so it will help to reduce the time pressure
a great deal. Shorter message planned tomorrow

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T O D A Y ‘ S R A C I N G

HAMILTON 4:15 SITE SERVICES PLANT LTD HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 1m65y

3/1 Wednesdays Boy, 9/2 Five Wishes, Primo Way, 5/1 Mystical Ayr, 6/1 Superior Star, 8/1 Apres Ski,
14/1 Augustus John, Middlemarch, 33/1 Sydneyroughdiamond.

* This is a 0-70 handicap over a Mile
* Hamilton have had 38 similar races at this time of year
* I watched the down in class MIDDLEMARCH on tape
* I dont think he ran well enough to bet even in this class
* He was just struggling rather than shaping like a winner
* I would oppose APRES SKI as he comes up from 6f
* Horses that did that had pretty poor records
* AUGUSTUS JOHN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not with just 2 runs this year and well beaten last year
* Sydneyroughdiamond looks outclassed
* I think this is between the front 5 in the betting
* FIVE WISHES and PRIMO WAY were 1st and 2nd last time
* That was in the same race and it was only a claimer
* They will be close together again and hard to split
* I Looked at Fillies coming from claimers like FIVE WISHES
* They were poor (1-50) and shes 0-9 in handicaps
* That 0-9 record was mainly from far lower handicap marks
* WEDNESDAYS BOY and MYSTICAL AYR are also respected
* They were 1st and 4th in the same 0-64 handicap at Ayr 2 runs ago
* MYSTICAL AYR has since come out and run well
* WEDENSDAYS BOY came out and won at Ayr yesterday
* That was a 0-58 but he did it well and he must go close
* Running yesterday gives him a serious advantage in my view
* All these 4 look in the right grade and have reasonable chances
* WEDENSDAYS BOY would easily be my preference of these
* I just wonder if we have not got a clever dark one here
* SUPERIOR STAR Looks well worth a bet
* SUPERIOR STAR interests me a fair bit off “57″
* He was running well off marks of 70 last year
* Richard Fahey trained him then and he is now with N Wilson
* If you think about it this horse probably hasnt been staying 10f
* He is by Superior Premium who was a sprinter
* The Dam was also a sprinter
* Superior Premium has yet to breed a 10f winner yet
* All his siblings like Baltic King -Domingues and others are sprinters
* Look at his last 9 races since November 2007
* He still managed a 3rd 3rd and 4th from 3 hurdle starts last winter
* That may have fooled people into thinking he will stay further on the flat
* I think a horse like him has little chance of staying over hurdles
* I dont think he has a prayer of staying 10f
* In Febuary he ran ok at Southwell but he wouldnt have stood out that day
* He was after all coming from Hurdles and it was only Febuary
* He did nothing wrong at Warwick in March
* His last 4 runs all had valid excuses
* You can take out his last run over 10f – he didnt stay that day
* Watched the video and he was a blatant non stayer
* Before stamina gave out he was running a blinder
* Take out that run and his 10f Beverely run as well in July
* He flopped at Thirsk and I am not sure why
* It was a rough race – he missed the break as well and was eased
* He was also badly hampered at Pontefract as well
* The racing post rate him “significantly better than the bare form”
* Back to a mile in a small field his horse must go well
* SUPERIOR STAR Looks a strong bet
* I would have to consider a “save” on WEDNESDAYS BOY
* Alternately an each way option

Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips