Full members had an exciting ride yesterday
with an advised each way double on  JESSIES DREAM
and  FIRST LIEUTENANT.

FIRST LIEUTENANT won setting up JESSIES DREAM
to complete an 87/1 double at Starting Price. Agony to watch with
JESSIES DREAM going odds on in running and looking
like winning. Wasn’t to be though with Jessies Dream
beaten by a mere neck.

Still a decent payout on the place side but so so close to a monster payout
for Full members.

You can read Guy’s reasoning and logic for these two  at link below

Close To Big Cigar

As Sods law would dicate the free blog race was a bit of a dog.

Sticking to our long term value principles however we ae not going for a
short priced hot pot on the free blog today.

Another big price horse for you.

CHELTENHAM 4.40

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase)
(Amateur Riders) (CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-140) 3m1f110y

6/1 Junior, 15/2 Galant Nuit, 10/1 Saddlers Storm
12/1 Pomme Tiepy, 14/1 Can´t Buy Time, Galaxy Rock
16/1 Faasel, 16/1 Far More Serious, 16/1 Mostly Bob
16/1 Richard´s Sundance, 18/1 Fredo, 20/1 Alderley Rover
20/1 Billie Magern, 25/1 Cornish Sett, 25/1 Khachaturian
25/1 Minella Theatre, Sheriff Hutton, 28/1 Massini Man
33/1 Burren Legend, 33/1 Dance Island, 33/1 Deal Done
33/1 Den Of Iniquity, 33/1 Teddy´s Reflection
40/1 Palypso De Creek.

* The Kim Muir is a 25f Handicap Chase for Amateurs
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* GALANT NUIT was 3rd in last years race
* I have a problem with him having 1 run this year
* I looked at every handicap chase in March at 3m +
* Those with 13 or more career starts and 1 run that year
* There were a few winners but none were aged 7 like him
* They also scored very badly with absences
* GALANT NUIT has been off 96 days as well
* There are 75 Handicap Chases at the festival at all trips
* Since 1993 that has meant 75 Festival Handicap Chases
* Horses aged 6 and 7 won 16 of these races
* None of these had just 1 or 2 runs that season
* No 6 or 7 year old won with 1-2 runs this season
* In fact there were only 3 that did it with 1-2-3 that year
* All 3 of those horses had Under 11st weight
* GALANT NUIT fails that as well
* I think he would be better on softer ground
* Only 2 horses aged 7 have won this since 1992
* Both had 5 + runs that season and ran within a month
* GALANT NUIT has just 1 run and a long break

* Older horses aged 11 or more are 0-60 in this race
* CORNISH SETT is too old after a heavy defeat last time
* FAR MORE SERIOUS has to go as an 11 year old
* Especially with a high weight and no Graded form
* Exposed horses have to be certain types
* I dont want the ones lightly raced this year
* Horses with 21 + runs in hurdles + chases won 6 races
* Those with 1-2-3 runs that year were 0-47
* FAASEL has to go exposed with 1 run this season
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE also fails that
* CAN´T BUY TIME looks underraced now he’s exposed
* POMME TIEPY fails that and is a Mare
* I looked at this race and the Festival Handicap
* These two races at the 3m Handicaps at the festival
* I looked at exposed horses in both races
* Those with 1-2-3  runs that season were just 3-116
* None were aged 6-7-8-9 (0-45)
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE – POMME TIEPY fail that
* CAN´T BUY TIME fail that
* All 3 had form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 before
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE fails that as well
* CAN´T BUY TIME fails that as well
* Exposed horses with 1-2-3-4 runs this year struggled
* Those absent more than a Month were just 1-58
* None won when carrying more than 11st 1lbs
* RICHARD´S SUNDANCE fails all that and has a poor profile
* CAN´T BUY TIME – POMME TIEPY fail that as well
* BURREN LEGEND comes out badly
* Exposed and lacking Grade 1-2 form he’s weak
* MASSINI MAN is out of his depth
* Inexperienced and winning a Hunter Chase last time
* PALYPSO DE CREEK looks underraced this year to me
* Exposed and coming from hurdles he looks vulnerable
* SHERIFF HUTTON is exposed and comes from 2m 5f
* Exposed horses from 3m or shorter last time were 1-79
* All Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* No exposed horse won carrying more than 11st
* SHERIFF HUTTON also has that against him
* SHERIFF HUTTON could have problems on this track
* TEDDY´S REFLECTION is wrong from a Graded Novice
* BILLIE MAGERN is wrong from a Graded Novice
* DANCE ISLAND  is wrong from a Graded Novice
* DEN OF INIQUITY has been absent 75 days
* No horse as old as him won with that absence
* Horses aged 7 only have a 2-56 record
* None like DEAL DONE had under 5 runs that year
* Horses aged 7 from 3m 1f or shorter were 0-45
* BILLIE MAGERN fails that
* DEAL DONE fails that coming from 2m 5f
* ALDERLEY ROVER fails that as well
* GALAXY ROCK fails that as well
* FREDO fails that as well
* Horses coming from Novice Chases are 0-23 in this race
* ALDERLEY ROVER has that to overcome
* I looked at every Handicap Chase at the festival
* I looked for 7 year olds from Novice Chases
* None won without Grade 1 form before
* ALDERLEY ROVER looks wrong from a Novice Chase
* GALAXY ROCK is also 7 from a Novice Chase
* He has no form beyond a Class 2 race and looks wrong
* No 7yo with his profile has won at the festival before
* FREDO has the same problems as well
* He is 7 from a Novice race with no Graded form
* I looked at this race and the Festival Handicap
* These two races at the 3m Handicaps at the festival
* No winners of either race came from 2n 3f or shorter
* SADDLERS STORM fails that and looks wrong
* I can ignore the fact Irish Horses are 0-35 in this race
* I cant ignore some of his other problems
* SADDLERS STORM has a high weight to overcome
* No horses did that with under 4 runs this season
* With just 2 runs and up in distance he looks opposable
* MINELLA THEATRE has a poor profile
* I dont like him out of form from 2m 6f
* MOSTLY BOB fell in the Racing Post Chase last time
* The 1994 winner was well beaten in that race and won this
* He has a tough weight of 11st 8lbs
* This race has been won by higher weights
* They were all unexposed with 4 + runs that year like him
* He only has 4 Chase starts and thats a problem
* He fell at the 3rd fence last time so he’s really had just 3
* He has fallen in two of his 4 Chase starts so far
* That leaves him quite short on experience
* I feel its asking too much of him with a big weight

POSSIBLES

* JUNIOR has been very well touted for this race
* He is clearly strongly fancied and well handicapped
* JUNIOR  has 1-2-3 Runs this season
* He has Grade 1 form which is important in that regard
* The absence doesnt worry me
* There are so few decent profiles he does stand out
* I do just prefer the chance of KHACHATURIAN more

SELECTION

* KHACHATURIAN stands out to me
* KHACHATURIAN was 5th in last years race
* He was only beaten 10 lengths last year
* He led and jumped the last in second place
* No shame at all in being caught by Ballybriggs
* Last years run proved this track is fine for him
* Statistically he was dead last year
* He ws only a 7yo the weakest age
* He lacked a recent run last year
* He has that today and is now a better age
* He had to come from 2m 5f last time
* Horses of any age doing that have awful records
* He came from Novice Handicaps last year
* This year he doesn’t and has more experience
* Last year he had a crippling weight for a 7yo
* This year he is 8 and races off a 3lbs lower mark
* He may well have gone off too fast last years
* He is a bigger price this year than he was last year

Bet each way

25/1 available at s james and betfred for 4 places
or if you prefer 22/1 at Blue Square paying 5 places.

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Posted under Major Horse Races

Today its Kauto Star v Denman. In all likelyhood
Kauto Star will probably win the race but I would
argue that the statistical arguments suggest that
a better bet is Imperial Commander and Cooldine.
You oppose Kauto Star at your peril but although
it’s not a race I would want an account bet in and
will enjoy the race without being heavily involved
it wouldnt surprise me if Imperial Commander won
and I am going to have an interest bet on him.

It is the Grand Annual that interests me most and
it’s this race I’ve earmarked for our final bet of the
meeting. TARTAK does have statistical problems.
He is not a horse that flies through my angles but
that does not worry me. Nothing else does anyway.
His chance will be determined by whether he will be
as effective at this 2m trip and I think he will. This
is wide open. It is not a vintage renewal. There are
no obvious plot horses this year. The weight stat
in the race has never been more vulnerable. I see
him as a controversial choice. You will struggle to
find anyone tip him today and he is the forgotten
horse of the race. I do think he is worth betting.

CHELTENHAM 5.15

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
Challenge Cup (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1)
(5yo+)2m110y

8/1 You´re The Top, 9/1 Free World, 10/1 French Opera
10/1 Oiseau De Nuit, 10/1 Tataniano 14/1 Beggars Cap
16/1 Consigliere, 16/1 Cornas, 16/1 Fighting Chance 16/1
Safari Journey, 16/1 Tartak, 20/1 Pepsyrock, Nomecheki
33/1 Lennon, 33/1 Lord Henry, 33/1 Moon Over Miami
33/1 Russian Flag , Calatagan, 40/1 Nikola, Pigeon Island
40/1 Tramantano.

* The Grand Annual is a 2m Handicap Chase
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992

* TRAMANTANO’s chance may have gone now
* I backed him e/w at 40/1 in last years race
* He placed Gallantly but never looked like winning
* He goes well fresh but I dont want a 11yo
* Not absent as long as him and he is rejected
* CALATAGAN is too old for me
* Especially coming down 5f in distance
* PIGEON ISLAND doesnt look good enough
* NIKOLA is exposed with just 2 runs this year
* No exposed horse did that and his absence hurts him
* LORD HENRY also has two runs this season
* Not enough for an exposed 11 year old
* Exposed horses dont score well
* I wouldnt bet one without serious backclass
* RUSSIAN FLAG doesnt have that
* Thats not a good sign statistically
* MOON OVER MIAMI is too exposed over fences
* He didnt achieve enough in recent races
* LENNON looks vulnerable to me
* Especially as an exposed 10yo with 2 runs this year

* SAFARI JOURNEY has been absent 96 days
* No English horse had an absence of more than 7 weeks
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* There were 5 winners aged 6 in these races
* None won when absent over a month
* SAFARI JOURNEY shouldnt be the first
* Horses absent 7 + weeks struggled in this race
* Those aged 6-7-8 were 0-50
* SAFARI JOURNEY fails that and has to go

* PEPSYROCK fails a lot of statistics
* He looks overexposed in Chases with 17 runs
* The last 11 winners had no more than 12 runs
* I think he is short of runs this season
* He didnt run well enough last time either
* Overall I thought he had a poor profile

* NOMECHEKI has a lot to do down from 2m 5f
* Especially with just 3 Chase runs
* Thats very inexperienced and a worry
* Having no Graded form doesnt help
* I am comfortable about opposing him

* FREE WORLD is a 6 year old
* There were 2 winners aged 6
* They both had 4 + runs this year and he has 3
* They both ran within a month
* He hasnt run in 44 days
* Not brilliant trends but he does fail both
* He would have been better with 1 more run recently
* However there are 6yo stats in all chases here
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* There were 5 winners aged 6 in these races
* None had under 4 runs that season
* None won when absent over a month
* None had the weight he does either
* FREE WORLD has 11st 11lbs and thats a big weight
* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less.
* In the last 9 years only 1 horse placed with 11st 3lbs or more
* You have to ask yourself about 6 year olds
* As none have won with his absence or with 1-2-3 runs
* Thats in any Festival Handicap Chase
* Is it likely  FREE WORLD will be the first with 11st 11lbs

* TATANIANO is also a 6 year old
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* There were 5 winners aged 6 in these races
* None had under 4 runs that season
* TATANIANO only has 3 runs
* None won when absent over a month
* TATANIANO has been absent 49 days
* That makes him weak statistically for me
* He also has 11st 2lbs and weight is an issue here
* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less.
* TATANIANO also has just 3 Chase runs
* The last few winners had 6 13 11 5 7 10 4 11 3 6 5 39 26
* Considering he is down from 19f it could be a problem
* There are too many problems with his profile
* TATANIANO wouldnt be my choice

* YOU´RE THE TOP is a 6 year old
* He comes from a Novice Chase
* Horses aged 6 from Novice Chases were 1-15
* Last years winner (Oh Crick) did it
* That said last years winner had 6 Chase runs
* YOU´RE THE TOP only has 3
* He also had 1 run extra this season
* He also had form in Listed Class before
* YOU´RE THE TOP hasnt had that backclass
* He also had 11lbs less weight
* I think YOU´RE THE TOP has a tough task here
* He has no form in Listed or Graded Class
* Every past winner had that
* He only has 3 Chase starts as well
* Only 1 of the last 10 winners had 3 Chase starts
* That winner had Grade 1 form over hurdles
* I dont see a great profile there

* FRENCH OPERA has 11st 12lbs to carry
* In the last 9 years only 1 horse placed with 11st 3lbs or more
* He was a well beaten 4th place
* That weight wont be easy to overcome
* Not with a 97 day absence as well
* English horses in this race absent 7 weeks are 0-58
* He is ridden by an Apprentice as well
* Apprentice riders are 0-32 in this race
* FRENCH OPERA has only 3 runs this year
* I looked at every handicap chase run at the festival
* I looked at horses with 1-2-3 runs that season
* I looked at those absent 7 weeks or more
* None carried the weight he does and that worries me
* I couldnt bet him with that weight and absence

* CORNAS comes from a Grade 1 Chase
* Horses doing that score badly in all handicap chase’s
* He has a troublesome weight with 11st 8lbs
* In the last 9 years only 1 horse placed with 11st 3lbs or more
* CORNAS also has to overcome a 55 day absence
* No English horse managed that in this race
* I think his weight and absence will beat him
* He certainly isnt typical of what’s been winning this
* For whatever reason horses from Grade 1 chases struggle

* OISEAU DE NUIT is exposed with 23 career starts
* Yet he has never run in Listed or Graded horse before
* That worries me a lot
* The last 16 winners all ran in Listed or Graded class
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* Only 2 winners were exposed with no Graded class
* Neither were like OISEAU DE NUIT
* He looks far too exposed in Handicap Chases
* He has more weight than many past winners
* I wasnt convinced he was the right type

* BEGGARS CAP doesnt really impress me
* He is a little exposed having his 12th handicap start
* He is a little exposed over fences with 15 runs
* The last 11 winners had no more than 12 runs in Chases.
* Overall I dont have huge problems with him
* His last run beaten miles doesnt help his profile
* 35 of the last 39 winners placed in their previous chase
* He doesnt and I see him as a bit on the unsafe side

P O S S I B L E S

* CONSIGLIERE comes from a hurdle race
* I dont have a big problem with that
* I think he is a bit exposed in handicap chases
* I think he could do with a few lbs less weight
* Neither problem would be a dealbreaker though
* He has no form higher than in a class 2 race though
* The last 16 winners all ran in better grade
* That makes him look weaker statistically
* I dont like his mark of 145 much
* There could also be an issue with the big field
* Overall I would make him a “Possible”
* Thats being Generous though based on his profile

* FIGHTING CHANCE has never in in Class 2 or higher
* Every past winner had ran in 2 Grades higher
* That has to be a big worry for a 10 year old
* We have had 3 winners aged 10 like him
* None of these came from a 2m chase
* They all had form in Graded races
* I wouldnt rule him out despite that
* He isnt exposed at all and is on a roll
* He has won his last 3 Handicap Chases
* Up in class and up in weight wont be easy at all
* He has a low weight though and he could improve
* FIGHTING CHANCE would be a “Possible” for me

SELECTION

TARTAK 16/1 bet365 VC will hill

( if you are betting ew bet365 offer 5 places )

* TARTAK has had 12 Chase starts
* It’s a little more than ideal but workable
* He has 11st 6lbs and thats a tough weight in this
* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less.
* He does have Grade 1 form though
* I quite liked the rest of his profile
* Much will depend on whether he is a 2 miler
* Since the 2009 Arkle has has ran at 2m 4f and more
* This may well be his best distance

TARTAK started 10/1 in last years Arkle. He ran very
well after being hampered in a rough race and jumped
the last only 2 lengths down against Grade 1 horses.
He then went and won at Aintree over 2m 4f and that
may have formed an imprint with some that TARTAK
needs further than 2 Miles. That could be a mistake.

* His form suggests he likes Flat Tracks
* I disagree with that myself
* How can you Pigeon hole a horse after a few runs
* I watched last years Arkle and he ran well
* That tells me he will have no problem here
* His other 2 races here were when he didnt stay
* Tom George is on record saying this
* I think he has run very well here before

This year he has run 5 times. I think you can excuse his
seasonal debut when he didnt jump well and was well
beaten. That was a Grade 2 handicap and he was only a
novice but it says a lot that he was made favourite. He
was then well beaten in the Paddy Power Gold Cup but
he was statistically dead in the water that day anyway
and if you watch the video he ran better than it looked
and was only beaten half a mile out when it looked like
he did not stay. TARTAK then placed at Huntingdon in
the Peterborough Chase. Nothing wrong with that run.
Look who was behind him. Albertas Run and Tidal Bay.
He may well have won that without slipping up.

His 4th race was in Kauto Star’s King George over 3m
and there is no surprise that he didnt stay 3 Miles. Its
interesting he was no bigger price that day than many
Grade 1 horses and I watched that and felt he ran with
plenty of credit but clearly didnt get home.

Last time out he dropped down to todays trip of 2 miles.
It was asking a lot for him to come down from 3m to 2m.
He didnt run badly in 5th place against a few runners in
this race. That race doesnt put me off. He needed a run
and had a harder task than it looked that day. After the
race Tom George hinted the horse wasnt well ridden and
strongly hinted that 2 miles was probably the right trip.

TARTAK now gets the chance to prove that. He has to
carry more weight than most previous winners and that
is a worry but I will forgive him that. He has Grade 1 form
and run in some serious races and its a matter of time to
wait before we get a winner again with 11st or more. He
doesnt pass all my angles in the race and there are some
question marks for him. I just think he is worth the risk.
He has some serious form behind him. I am taking the
view that this 2m suits him much better.  He will race in
the first half dozen today and I think he has the ability
to win this race.  Its not a vintage race. There has been
no Plot horses or throw in lightweights. Every horse is
9/1 and more. There is nothing special in this race and
With a stable in hot form I see him as very interesting.

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www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Posted under Major Horse Races

In the Kim Muir I am heavily involved with two bets.
I have backed SHILLINGSTONE at 8/1 and I have a
nice bet at 20/1 on BOYCHUK as well. I have to bet
BOYCHUK as a saver but one that wins plenty too.
What I like about this pair is not so much the profiles
they have but the negative profiles many of the other
horses have. I am not just talking about them being
unsuitable for todays race. I am talking about horses
who have profiles that wouldnt have won any chase
at Cheltenham in the last 15 years such is their lack
of neccesary requirements. Some Powerful negatives
in this race. I know there are 24 runners and luck will
be important but take your time when reading why I
am on them and you will hopefully agree I have made
a strong case for both horses winning this race.

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CHELTENHAM 4.40

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
(Handicap Chase) (Amateur Riders)
(CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-140) 3m1f110y

13/2 Ballabriggs, 7/1 Shillingstone, 8/1 Galant Nuit
12/1 Isn´t That Lucky, 12/1 Nostringsattached
16/1 Faltering Fullback, 16/1 Finger Onthe Pulse
16/1 I´moncloudnine, 16/1 Khachaturian, 20/1 Boychuk
20/1 Faasel, 20/1 Heathcliff, 20/1 Kia Kaha, 20/1 Lysander
25/1 Buck The Legend, 25/1 Hello Bud, 25/1 Ma Yahab
25/1 Saphir Des Bois, 25/1 Zitenka, 40/1 Oodachee
50/1 Burren Legend, 50/1 Freds Benefit, 50/1 Mr Robert
50/1 Parsons Legacy.

* The Kim Muir is a 25f Handicap Chase for Amateurs
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992

* BURREN LEGEND surely wont win absent 523 days
* MR ROBERT has been off too long for an exposed horse
* He has too much weight for an exposed horse as well
* PARSONS LEGACY wont be fit enough
* FREDS BENEFIT has a horrible profile
* I couldnt bet an exposed horse from a 2m race
* FAASEL has a weak profile
* No exposed horse had under 4 runs this season
* ZITENKA probably isnt good enough
* Nothing too much wrong with his profile
* I cant match him to any past winners though
* I suspect he will find this too warm
* I would have to worry about the track as well

* Horses aged 11 or more are 0-57 in this race
* Cheltenham have had 70 handicap chases
* Thats 70 races at the Festival at any distance
* No 11 year old won with over a Months absence
* They had a 0-88 record and its a poor profile
* LYSANDER fails that and has been absent 76 days
* OODACHEE also fails that and other stats
* HELLO BUD is a 12yo and looks too old for this
* No exposed horse like him won any festival handicap
* The only older horses like him had form in Grade 1 or 2
* No horse his age won any festival race like him
* Not when so well beaten last time
* Not when lacking Grade 1-2 form

* MA YAJAB has just 2 runs this season
* Horses with under 4 runs this season struggled in this
* Exposed types like him were 0-42
* Cheltenham have had 70 handicap chases
* Thats 70 races at the Festival at any distance
* I looked for exposed horses with 1-2 runs that year
* There were 3 winners but they all had 1 thing in common
* They all had form in a Grade 1 race
* No exposed horse that hadnt got Grade 1 form won
* Not with just 1-2 runs that season
* That tells me MA YAJAB wont win

* I´MONCLOUDNINE is a 7 year old
* There were 2 winning 7 year olds
* Neither were absent over a month like him
* Neither came from 3m or shorter like him
* Horses aged 7 only have a 2-52 record
* None had his weight but that doesnt bother me
* I´MONCLOUDNINE isnt like any past winner
* Cheltenham have had 70 handicap chases
* Thats 70 races at the Festival at any distance
* I looked at the record or all 7 year olds
* Those without Graded Form before struggled
* Those with 9 + runs like him won just 1 race
* That winner had a much recent run
* I´MONCLOUDNINE has questions to answer

* GALANT NUIT is 6 years old
* Horses aged 6 are 0-17 in this race since 1992
* The last 6 year old winner was in 1971
* GALANT NUIT  fails a big generic statistic
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* There were 5 winners aged 6 in these races
* None had under 4 runs that season
* None won when absent over a month
* GALANT NUIT fails both those trends
* He has been absent 124 days
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* I looked at horses like GALLANT NUIT
* Absent more than 3 months
* No form in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* Horses with that profile struggled
* Those with 13 + runs were 0-41
* This tells me he will struggle to win
* GALLANT NUIT is a negative

* SAPHIR DES BOIS is also a 6yo
* We know they are 0-17 in this race
* SAPHIR DES BOIS also steps up from 2m 4f
* There are 32 festival handicaps at 3m since 1993
* Thats 16 renewals of this race
* And 16 renewals of the William Hill Trophy
* Only 1 winner came from a 2m 4f race
* He was much older and had much less weight
* SAPHIR DES BOIS could struggle aged 6 from 2m 4f
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled anyway
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals

* ISN´T THAT LUCKY has been absent 110 days
* He has only had 2 runs this season
* His trainer says he will either win or come last
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* I looked at horses with 1-2 runs this season
* When they had absences of 7 weeks or more
* When they had 9 + runs this season
* No winner aged 6-7-8 had that profile in the 70 races
* ISN´T THAT LUCKY isnt like any Festival winner
* We know 7 year olds dont score well in this anyway
* Both 7yo winners had 5 + runs this season
* Both ran within a month as well
* He also has to come from a 2m 4f race
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* ISN´T THAT LUCKY doesnt come out well

* NOSTRINGSATTACHED has been absent 202 days
* He fails my Generic Cheltenham statistic
* Cheltenham has had 132 Handicaps since 1993
* Thats 132 Handicaps at any distance – hurdle or chase
* Thats every handicap run at the festival in 17 years
* I looked at horses that were absent 80 + days
* I then look at those with 13 + runs
* 8 winners won with 13 + runs and 80 + days off
* The 8 winners all had 1 think in common
* They had all ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* That tells me he shouldnt defy his absence
* Especially with quite a tough weight

* FINGER ONTHE PULSE has just 2 runs this year
* He also has a 110 day absence
* That worries me for an exposed horse
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* Only 1 exposed horse won with 1-2 runs that year
* And with an absence like that
* That was Joes Edge in the 2007 William Hill Trophy
* He carries 17lbs more weight than Joes Edge did
* FINGER ONTHE PULSE has other issues
* He comes from 2m 4f
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* Only 2 past winners carried more weight
* Both were unexposed and had 4-5 runs that year
* No exposed horse won carrying more than 11st
* He is a course winner and they have poor records
* FINGER ONTHE PULSE fails too many angles for me

* FALTERING FULLBACK comes from a Novice race
* Horses doing that in this race were 0-40
* He also comes from 2m 4f or shorter
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* FALTERING FULLBACK doesnt look right

* KHACHATURIAN is a 7yo
* There were 2 winners that age win this race
* Both ran within a month
* He has been absent 41 days but thats forgiveable
* Those aged 7 from 3m 1f or shorter were 0-39
* He comes from a 2m 5f race
* Thats a little harder to forgive
* Both 7 year old winners also had at least 10lbs less weight
* Horses in this race from a Novice race were 0-40
* KHACHATURIAN fails that as well
* We know horses from 2m 6f or less are 1-68 as well
* KHACHATURIAN also has that against him
* Most of his wins come on sharp tracks as well
* His 3 runs at Cheltenham were all poor runs
* We know no exposed winner had 11st or more
* Overall not a very impressive profile

* KIA KAHA comes from 2m 5f
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* He is a course winner as well
* Course winners have a weak 1-81 record in 16 years
* These are the only 2 statistical problems
* I dont like his profile but others fail a lot more
* His jumping though just doesnt look good enough
* Its gone to pot lately and I couldnt trust him

* HEATHCLIFF comes out a lot better than most
* Doesnt mean he has a strong profile though
* HEATHCLIFF does have much backclass
* I looked at horses like him with no Graded form
* Those with 13 + career runs won 5 races
* Only 1 was aged under 9 years old though
* He ran far better last time and had more prep runs
* He also looks light on experience with 4 Chase runs
* There was 1 past winner with 4 runs (Honey Mount)
* Funnily enough he comes from the same Ludlow race
* That said Honey Mount won the Ludlow race
* HEATHCLIFF ran badly and nearly refused to race
* I think that makes him too riSky

* BUCK THE LEGEND is shaky
* He may have a better chance than it looks
* He comes from a 2m 5f race
* We know horses 2m 6f or shorter were just 1-68
* Exposed horses from 3m or shorter last time were 1-74
* He has more weight than any exposed winner
* He isnt like any past winner and is Shaky
* I think he is well handicapped though
* Perhaps I wanted him to be stronger statistically
* Certainly has some Jumping issues as well
* Overall I cant make a strong enough case for him
* His inexperienced jockey also worries me

* BALLABRIGGS comes here with a W W record
* He has to carry Topweight in this race
* There has been 1 winner in the last 16 renewals
* That had a 11st 3lbs or more with no Graded Class
* I looked at all 70 Handicap Chases at the festival
* Thats every Handicap Chase at any distance
* I looked at horses with 11st 8lbs or more
* There were 5 winners with that weight
* All 5 had Graded Class and he doesnt
* BALLABRIGGS doesnt look great with that in mind
* He is on a roll and I would respect him
* It’s a tough task though and his mark is high
* Throw in the fact he is unproven here
* I think its a lot to ask but I cant rule him out

S E L E C T I O N

* BOYCHUK has been absent 96 days
* Royal Predica won this in 2003 with a longer break
* He was also exposed with Graded Form
* That gives hope to BOYCHUK
* That said In 70 festival handicap chases
* Thats 70 handicap chases at every distance
* Only 1 exposed horse had that absence/weight
* That leaves him looking Shaky
* He is a Course winner which hasnt been helpful
* He has won Fresh and I think he is shortlistable
* His Grade 1 form cuts him lots of slack
* He doesnt have the strong profile I would like
* BOYCHUK would be a saver for me

SHILLINGSTONE

* SHILLINGSTONE has the 1 profile I like
* He is far from statistically safe
* I have only found 1 past winner like him
* Part of his attraction is strong angles against others
* He only has 6 Chase starts
* I looked at Horses with his profile
* Horses aged 8
* Coming from a Handicap
* No Form in Class 2 races or better
* Under 7 Career runs
* Only 1 horse in  16 renewals had that profile
* That Was Bushkeeper who won in 2005
* All that does is tell me he is fine statistically
* He has 6 Chase starts but lighter raced chasers have won
* There has been recent winners with 4 and 5 chase starts
* He comes from the same Sandown race as the 1995 winner
* The Alners have had 3 runners in this race
* They finished W W 4
* SHILLINGSTONE won many point to points
* He won a Hunter Chase for the Alners Daughter
* This season he switched to the Robert and Sally Alner
* He won his first 2 races when looking well treated
* He then raced just once more last time at Sandown
* He was a little bit dissapointing in 6th place
* Heavy Ground hurt his chance with an 83 day break
* I think he had a good excuse that day
* I think he ran with this race in mind anyway
* Well backed when the weights came out
* He was always laid out for this race
* I think there are massive holes in his opposition
* SHILLINGSTONE looks the likely winner

****************************************************

Posted under Major Horse Races

I don’t think I should have an account bet. Tempted
a lot by the thought of turning an unimpressive week
into a winning one but bottom line is there is not much
point wasting good money before Cheltenham. It has
been a really strong start to the year. I am planning a
Top class Cheltenham where I will be Spot on. Just
having some small personal bets today for some interest.

For the free blog I will list just one of them.

If interested in the other races covered join the full service
under the Cheltenham Deal

Here is the cheap price link:

*************************************************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
*************************************************

NEWBURY 3.10

Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m4f

3/1 Can´t Buy Time, 7/2 Pasco, 6/1 Battlecry, 8/1 Au Courant, 8/1 Panjo Bere,
9/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Our Vic10/1 Regal Heights, 33/1 Stan.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m4f
* There are 5 renewals of this race
* There has only been 14 similar races elsewhere
* Thats 14 races in Listed or Graded class

The problem here is 14 races like this is not really enough
to get a complete statistical fixture. What this means from
a practicle point of view in this race is whether we can be confident enough to oppose horses with One or Two runs this season. They score badly but over half the runners in this race have just 1-2 runs this season so just how safe it will be to oppose them is open to doubt.
In this particular race all 5 winners had at least 3 runs this season and most had more. In the 14 similar handicaps horses with 1-2 runs that season only had a 1-41 record. If you take horses that  had never run in a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 race before you find that with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a 0-41 record.

None also had an absence of or more than a month (0-35). That is a problem for CAN´T BUY TIME with just 2 runs in this season and a 9 week break. BIG FELLA THANKS also has no form in Grade 1-2 races and comes out questionably as a horse with just 2 runs this season.
Both AU COURANT and STAN come out badly with an absence and just 2 runs this season. I cant have OUR VIC who drops from 3m 4f just 14 days ago and these statistics show him vulnerable.

* There has been 419 handicap chases between 19f – 22f
* Thats 419 races at any time of year in Class 2 or better
* Horses from 3m 3f or more last time won just 10 races
* None were aged 11 or more and OUR VIC is 12
* Those running between Febuary and April were 0-71
* Those running within 2 weeks were 0-37

I just see OUR VIC having too much to do. I’ve found a
winner like REGAL HEIGHTS aged  9 and exposed with
2 runs this year as that winner like him had Grade 1 form
so I see him in a better light but he still looks underraced this year.
If you look at horses in the 14 similar races at this time of year with an
absence of 7 weeks or more there is a very troublesome 1-69 record.
We know that STAN, AU COURANT and CAN´T BUY TIME  have
that against them but so to does PASCO with a 79 day absence.
I see PANJO BERE as having a good profile and although he’s
not well handicapped he is crucially well raced this year
and looks shortlistable. I also like BATTLECRY a lot. It
has to be considered that Trevor Hemmings has him in
two Cheltenham handicaps and whether that raises the
doubt that this is only a prep race or not I wouldnt know
but He is a talented horse. He was 3rd in the Sun Alliance
Chase a couple of years ago and he comes here as Fitter
in each run he has had this year and probably well treated
as well. Against many horses with absences and many in
the race potentially underraced this year BATTLECRY is
a really generous price for a horse with few obvious flaws.
He is very one paced and could be beaten by something
who can quicken better but he looks rock solid to me and
I will be surprised if he doesnt place.

SELECTION

BATTLECRY Each Way 7/1

* I think BATTLECRY is a place banker
* I think his most likely position is 2nd
* If I was having a saver it would be on Pasco

** Blog comment: Price dropped a touch now
13/2 available at William Hill  VC betfred

Posted under horse racing tips

 
CHELTENHAM  5.15
JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL CHASE CHALLENGE CUP
(HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m110y
 6/1 Poquelin, 8/1 French Opera, 10/1 Clew Bay Cove, 10/1 My Petra,
10/1 Oh Crick, 10/1 Pasco, 10/1 Tiger Cry, 14/1 I’m So Lucky,
14/1 Lorient Express, 14/1 Perce Rock, 20/1 Andreas, 20/1 Valain,
25/1 Calatagan, 25/1 Psychomodo, 33/1 Central House, 33/1 Moon
Over Miami, 40/1 Beggars Cap, 40/1 Palarshan, 40/1 Tramantano, 66/1 Jigsaw
* This is a 2m Handicap Chase
* There has been 15 renewals since 1993
* There has been 65 handicap chases at this meeting
* Thats 65 handicap chases at every distance
* Its been a long time since an exposed horse won this
* ANDREAS is exposed and has 11st 12lbs
* PALARSHAN is an 11 year old
* Only 7 horses aged 11 won handicaps at the festival
* None had 10st 6lbs or less (0-61)
* None were beaten as far as he was last time
* He looks way out of his depth
* BEGGARS CAP didnt do enough last time
* He looks outclassed in this
* CALATAGAN  is out aged 10 from hurdles
* No horse that age came from hurdles
* In this race horses from Hurdles were poor
* Those like him down in trip from hurdles were 0-50
* No exposed horse won any festival handicap with 11st 12lbs
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse was beaten in a novice or beginners chase and won
* JIGSAW DANCER was just hammered in a Novice Chase
* MOON OVER MIAMI also has that problem
* CENTRAL HOUSE looks too old
* TIGER CRY is a 11 year old absent 61 days
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse aged 11 or more won with a months absnece
* All 60 that tried lost
* With 2 runs since last April he may not be fit
* TIGER CRY looks opposable to me
* TIGER CRY did win this last year
* He had a far better profile though and was fitter
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* POQUELIN is a 6 year old absent 111 days
* I looked at English horses absent 7 weeks or more
* In all handicap chases run at this festival these types were poor
* No horse aged 7 or less managed it (0-43)
* No horse managed it from any kind of Novice race
* POQUELIN fails both those trends
* POQUELIN was also beaten in a Novice Chase last time
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse was beaten in a novice or beginners chase and won
* FRENCH OPERA fails the same angles
* He was beaten in a Novice Chase last time
* We know no Festival Handicap went to a horse doing that
* He is also absent 7 weeks or more
* Horses like him aged under 8 doing that were 0-43
* No horse like him from a Novice race defied that absence
* FRENCH OPERA looks opposable to me
* OH CRICK was also beaten in a Novice last time
* Again no horse won a Festival handicap doing that
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* MY PETRA is a 6 year old absent 71 days
* I looked at English horses absent 7 weeks or more
* In all handicap chases run at this festival these types were poor
* No horse aged 7 or less managed it (0-43)
* MY PETRA fails that and is rejeceted
* Every past winner ran in Graded Class before
* LORIENT EXPRESS has not done that
* He has had 36 races – Aged 10 – yet no Graded Class
* I looked at every Handicap Chase run at the Festival
* Horses aged 10+ with no past Graded form were 0-59
* That suggests to me LORIENT EXPRESS may lack class
POSSIBLES
* PSYCHOMODO isnt too bad statistically
* There are a lot worse profiles
* I dont personally think he will have the class
* He is not a 40/1 chance and is respected
* PERCE ROCK unseated his rider yesterday
* He would not have won and that was over 2m 5f
* I think trip and ground may catch him out
* He is certainly unsafe and has an outside chance
* PASCO is quite interesting as a Novice winner
* I would have prefered a little more than 3 chase runs
* The 2000 winner Samakaan managed it though
* Statistically he is shortlistable but there are worries
* His trainer has argued he wants softer ground
* He has also argued he may not like the track
* Ruby Walsh has also rejected him for Poquelin
* I find it hard to go with him because of that
* VALAIN is very hard to assess properly
* Not sure how relevant running on the flat recently is
* JP McManus owns him and CLEW BAY COVE
* Mc Coy rides CLEW BAY COVE
* I suspect thats because he cant do 10st 1lbs
* McCoy hasnt ridden below 10st 4lbs in the last year
* VALAIN may well be the stable preference
* It would trouble me he ran on the flat
* If he was fancied to win and prepared to perfection
* Why would he run on the flat just 2 weeks before
* As it was his first run since September it may be fitness
* Connections may have felt he wasnt fit
* That may be a rushed prearation
* VALAIN is a big price and that does help with worries
* Respect and Shortlist him but dont select him
* CLEW BAY COVE looks a bit exposed to me
* There has been winners like him but some time ago
* He has had 14 Handicap Chase runs so has no secrets
* You can also argue he may want softer ground
* I am not convinced about him to be honest
* TRAMANTANO looks unfancied at 40/1
* He was beaten 16 lengths in this race last year
* I tipped him in last years race at 25/1
* One or two early mistakes hurt his chance last year
* He is much Fresher this year and he needs that
* This horse is always best after an absence
* With 1 run since November he will be fresh enough
* He loves the track and I am betting him again
I’M SO LUCKY
* I’M SO LUCKY has a very smart profile
* I Looked at horses that had this profile like him
* Coming from a 2m Handicap chase in Class 2
* At least 9 runs and at least 3 that year
* Run within 7 weeks
* Starting 20/1 or shorter
* Has ran in Graded Class before
* Has won in their last 6 races
* Carrying less than 11st
* I’M SO LUCKY has that profile
* SO did 6 other horses that ran in this race before
* Those 6 horses had the following record
* W  W  W  2  3  5
* I’M SO LUCKY will love the drying ground
* He ran very well last time on ground too soft
* His previous race he was beaten by Planet Of Sound
* That horse was 3rd in Tuesdays Grade 1 Arkle
* I’M SO LUCKY had to give him 10lbs that day
* We now know that was an impossible task
* He won his previous 2 races easily
* Statistically he is strong as a lightly raced chaser
* He isnt over exposed in handicaps
* My only worry is will he handle the track
* He has a lot of flat track form
* Its a serious worry and I dont know the answer to it
Two Bets for me in this race
TRAMANTANO Each Way Bet at 40/1
I’M SO LUCKY Win Bet at 20/1

Posted under horse racing tips