Thirsk 4.10

9/2 Karaka Jack, 5/1 Dubai Dynamo, 6/1 Northern Fling
7/1 Arry´s Orse, 8/1 Reel Buddy Star, 8/1 Summer Dancer
10/1 Everymanforhimself, Ginger Ted, 12/1 Illustrious Prince 20/1 Qadar, 25/1 Arabian Pride, 25/1 Bond Fastrac.

* This is a 7f Handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* REEL BUDDY STAR is exposed absent 7 + months
* Thats a lot for horse on a career mark
* Ignore the horses from 3yo handicaps
* BOND FASTRAC – ARABIAN PRIDE fail that
* Horses drawn in stall 1-2 have underperformed
* 30 races here since 2008 with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn in stalls 1-2 have a 1-56 record
* SUMMER DANCER has a bad draw and modest profile
* GINGER TED has a bad draw and an unsafe profile
* QADAR is 0-27 on Grass and vulnerable
* EVERYMANFORHIMSELF – Weight and absence is a worry
* ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE – Not completely out of this
* I dont like the massive stable downgrade he had this winter
* I wouldnt see him as progressive because of that

SHORTLIST

* NORTHERN FLING – Shaky profile but a possible
* I’d like another run this year or a shorter absence
* ARRY´S ORSE – Almost right good enough to respect
* KARAKA JACK – Well treated and good profile
* DUBAI DYNAMO – Serious chance back on fast ground
* KARAKA JACK and DUBAI DYNAMO stand out to me
* DUBAI DYNAMO is a saver
* KARAKA is a win bet

Posted under horse racing tips

KHACHATURIAN yesterday on the free blog was  speculative
at a massive price but I feel I made a reasonable case for
him at the price. He got into the race but fell short when
it mattered and  finished only 10th. In such a huge field
confidence is impossible but I shortlisted only two and I
found the winner but went for the bigger priced horse as
I didn’t see any great value in Junior. The wrong choice.

One Strong Bet stands out to me today for Full Members.

She will put us ahead for the week if she wins.
It is always a  gruelling week but at least the prices are
good and you only need one winner to rescue Matters.

Aside from that one  I do like a lot today and feel confident in all  my bets.
ALARAZI whom I discuss below is a horse I felt should be backed at 8/1 but he has Far more
to beat than my Full Bet.

The Gold  Cup fascinates me.
LONG RUN and TIDAL BAY stand out to me.
I have backed both of these personally and if Tidal Bay wasnt in the field
I may have gone in much harder on LONG RUN. I’d love to
end with a Grand Annual bet but the ferocious field puts me off any serioius cash
so ANQUETTA is just a Mention for those who feel they have to play the race.

CHELTENHAM 2.05

Vincent OBrien County Handicap Hurdle
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m1f

13/2 Alarazi, 7/1 Alaivan, 8/1 Dirar, 8/1 Ski Sunday
12/1 Blackstairmountain, 12/1 Final Approach
12/1 Snap Tie, 14/1 Get Me Out Of Here, 14/1 Soldatino
16/1 Notus De La Tour, Salden Licht, 16/1 Secret Dancer
20/1 Ciceron, 20/1 Hunterview, Bellvano, 25/1 Zanir
33/1 Cockney Trucker, 33/1 Dee Ee Williams
33/1 Grey Soldier, 33/1 Inventor, 33/1 Praxiteles
33/1 Tarkari, 40/1 Spring Jim, 66/1 Ellerslie Tom
66/1 Gloucester, 66/1 Nearby, 66/1 Premier Dane.

* The County Hurdle is a Handicap over 17f
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* The weather in December caused a lot of problems
* I said then it would affect horses fitness in March
* I think this race has been affected by that
* I would want at least 3 runs this season
* SNAP TIE has to go as a seasonal debutant
* The last 18 winners had these runs since September
* 3 4 6 4 7 7 3 5 5 5 4 6 5 7 7 5 5 3 4
* SKI SUNDAY doesnt interest me with 1 run this year
* BELLVANO is out with 1 run this season
* SALDEN LICHT has ran just twice this year
* SOLDATINO  has ran just twice this year
* NOTUS DE LA TOUR has ran just twice this year
* FINAL APPROACH has ran just twice this year
* DIRAR has only raced twice this year
* He has to prove he can act at Cheltenham as well
* ZANIR looks underraced with 2 runs this season
* English horses aged 7 or more were 3-159
* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that season were 0-95
* SALDEN LICHT fails that
* GET ME OUT OF HERE fails that with 3 runs
* BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN also fails that
* ELLERSLIE TOM fails that
* BELLVANO fails that
* Horses with 11st 10lbs or more are 0-18
* SALDEN LICHT fails that
* You want a Horse that ran within the last 56 days.
* Only Sir Talbot (1999) won with a longer absence
* BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN also fails that
* SKI SUNDAY also fails that
* INVENTOR has been absent 210 days failing that
* FINAL APPROACH has been absent longer than ideal
* PRAXITELES has a nasty absence as well
* GLOUCESTER fails the absence statistic
* PREMIER DANE fails the absence statistic
* All 56 horses that came from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Lost
* TARKARI fails that
* NEARBY doesnt look too well handicapped
* He has a lot of weight for an older horse
* I dont think he will give the weight away
* GREY SOLDIER needs abnormal improvement
* On his last run which was his first since October
* No past winners came from Chases
* DEE EE WILLIAMS doesnt look safe doing that

BIG PRICED POSSIBLES

* COCKNEY TRUCKER is older than ideal aged 9
* There were winners his age and his profile looks ok
* Well raced and fit this year I respect him
* I dont think he will win his as a 9 year old
* I see him as vulnerable but he shouldnt be 66/1
* COCKNEY TRUCKER is far too big at that price
* HUNTERVIEW comes out as fine
* I didnt think he would win again off a career high mark
* Not as a 5 year old but 50/1 is too big a price
* CICERON has done enough to shortlist
* The demands of this track will test him
* He has too much form on sharp flat tracks for me
* Statistically fine but with outside flaws

SHORTLIST

* SECRET DANCER has a fine chance
* Not dissimilar to last years winner
* Only in that he has just 3 runs this season
* Not convinced he will be fit enough

* ALAIVAN has to be shortlisted
* Only 1 horse aged 5 had 11st 1lbs or more though
* That horse won the Imperial Cup just 7 days ago

* ALARAZI looks a very strong runner
* His win 6 days ago shortlists him comfortably
* Horses coming from the Imperial Cup are a poor 1-37
* Horses that won the Imperial Cup last time are 1-7
* Thats much better but that winner was a 5yo
* He was lighter raced than ALARAZI as well
* That said off 10st 4lbs he  is a huge runner

SELECTION

ALARAZI looks strongest to me
8/1 at bet 365 -  Ladbrokes – William Hill

* I also like Alaivan to beat Ski Sunday in a match bet

Posted under Major Horse Races

No firm bets today but if you want a bit of interest consider …

CATTERICK 1.40

Bet On Today´s Football At Totesport.com
Apprentice Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6) (3yo+) 1m3f214y

5/2 Drum Dragon, 7/2 Lost Soldier Three, 4/1 Boundless Prospect, 8/1 Bajan Parkes, 10/1 Moggy, 16/1 Bigalo´s Star, 25/1 Another Decree, 25/1 Dream In Blue, 33/1 Aven Mac,  33/1 Boy Dancer, 33/1 Cecina Marina, Grethel,

SELECTION

* Win bet on MOGGY 10/1 + (  11/1 Skybet and sportingbet )
* Lay her back in running at 3/1

This is a Claimer over just short of 12f for Apprentice
riders. Catterick has 12 renewals of this race and there
are 53 similar races for all jockeys. You want at least 5
runs this season. I see BIGALO´S STAR as underraced
this year.  Horses absent over 7 weeks have struggled.
They were 1-51 in this race. In the 53 similar races all
horses absent 7 weeks or more were 1-118 since 1998
so DREAM IN BLUE and BOY DANCER have to go.

Horses from Maidens like AVEN MAC are poor. I do
not want CECINA MARINA a filly with a 0-22 career
record. She is an exposed mare and these types have a
poor 1-39 record something GRETHEL also fails. I’d
be against ANOTHER DECREE as a male horse thats
up in distance 3 furlongs. Horses that came up from 10f
races without a run within 2 weeks had a 3-150 record.
Thats poor and BOUNDLESS PROSPECT’s got that
against him and its asking a lot for a 10 year old to win
coming from 10f. He has only run once  since March
and thats not a lot for a 10 year old. I see him failing
this test. DRUM DRAGON is a 3yo filly coming from
a 3yo handicap and in all 53 similar races these types
were 0-17. That has to be a worry. I dont want to trust
BAJAN PARKES after being beaten 53 lengths only 7
days ago. If you look at horses that lost by 10 or more
lengths in the last fortnight you find a horrible record
and those like BAJAN PARKES that came from 14f or
shorter were 1-115. It was only non stayers at 2 miles
that got well beaten dropping in trip that overcame it
and with a 1-115 record BAJAN PARKES doesnt look
like a horse I could bet. Its quite interesting that it only a quarter of a length stops LOST SOLDIER THREE
from failing the same statistic. He ran in the same race
as BAJAN PARKES and despite not beaten 10 + lengths
he was beaten 9.75 lengths and there has to be a doubt
about whether he did enough and he does look quite a
regressive 8 year old.

SELECTION

I quite like MOGGY the 3 year old filly. There has been
2 recent 3yo fillies winning this race. I would have been
happier with a very recent run but MOGGY is as good as
anything on her profile. She will probably try and make
the runningand steal the race from the front. There is a
stamina doubt here so she may be vulnerable later on. I
see her as a Win bet at 12/1 and lay her back in running
about 3/1 as she will probably have Lost Soldier Three
and Drum Dragon trying to mow her down. I would much
rather bet him big and lay her in running than any other
way and I dont think its impossible she can win this. In
all similar races 3yo fillies coming from 10f sellers had
a 2-7 record and that included the 2006 winner of this.

* Win bet on MOGGY 10/1 +
* Lay her back in running at 3/1

Posted under horse racing tips

 
CHELTENHAM  5.15
JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL CHASE CHALLENGE CUP
(HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m110y
 6/1 Poquelin, 8/1 French Opera, 10/1 Clew Bay Cove, 10/1 My Petra,
10/1 Oh Crick, 10/1 Pasco, 10/1 Tiger Cry, 14/1 I’m So Lucky,
14/1 Lorient Express, 14/1 Perce Rock, 20/1 Andreas, 20/1 Valain,
25/1 Calatagan, 25/1 Psychomodo, 33/1 Central House, 33/1 Moon
Over Miami, 40/1 Beggars Cap, 40/1 Palarshan, 40/1 Tramantano, 66/1 Jigsaw
* This is a 2m Handicap Chase
* There has been 15 renewals since 1993
* There has been 65 handicap chases at this meeting
* Thats 65 handicap chases at every distance
* Its been a long time since an exposed horse won this
* ANDREAS is exposed and has 11st 12lbs
* PALARSHAN is an 11 year old
* Only 7 horses aged 11 won handicaps at the festival
* None had 10st 6lbs or less (0-61)
* None were beaten as far as he was last time
* He looks way out of his depth
* BEGGARS CAP didnt do enough last time
* He looks outclassed in this
* CALATAGAN  is out aged 10 from hurdles
* No horse that age came from hurdles
* In this race horses from Hurdles were poor
* Those like him down in trip from hurdles were 0-50
* No exposed horse won any festival handicap with 11st 12lbs
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse was beaten in a novice or beginners chase and won
* JIGSAW DANCER was just hammered in a Novice Chase
* MOON OVER MIAMI also has that problem
* CENTRAL HOUSE looks too old
* TIGER CRY is a 11 year old absent 61 days
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse aged 11 or more won with a months absnece
* All 60 that tried lost
* With 2 runs since last April he may not be fit
* TIGER CRY looks opposable to me
* TIGER CRY did win this last year
* He had a far better profile though and was fitter
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* POQUELIN is a 6 year old absent 111 days
* I looked at English horses absent 7 weeks or more
* In all handicap chases run at this festival these types were poor
* No horse aged 7 or less managed it (0-43)
* No horse managed it from any kind of Novice race
* POQUELIN fails both those trends
* POQUELIN was also beaten in a Novice Chase last time
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* No horse was beaten in a novice or beginners chase and won
* FRENCH OPERA fails the same angles
* He was beaten in a Novice Chase last time
* We know no Festival Handicap went to a horse doing that
* He is also absent 7 weeks or more
* Horses like him aged under 8 doing that were 0-43
* No horse like him from a Novice race defied that absence
* FRENCH OPERA looks opposable to me
* OH CRICK was also beaten in a Novice last time
* Again no horse won a Festival handicap doing that
* I looked at the 65 handicap chases run at this festival
* MY PETRA is a 6 year old absent 71 days
* I looked at English horses absent 7 weeks or more
* In all handicap chases run at this festival these types were poor
* No horse aged 7 or less managed it (0-43)
* MY PETRA fails that and is rejeceted
* Every past winner ran in Graded Class before
* LORIENT EXPRESS has not done that
* He has had 36 races – Aged 10 – yet no Graded Class
* I looked at every Handicap Chase run at the Festival
* Horses aged 10+ with no past Graded form were 0-59
* That suggests to me LORIENT EXPRESS may lack class
POSSIBLES
* PSYCHOMODO isnt too bad statistically
* There are a lot worse profiles
* I dont personally think he will have the class
* He is not a 40/1 chance and is respected
* PERCE ROCK unseated his rider yesterday
* He would not have won and that was over 2m 5f
* I think trip and ground may catch him out
* He is certainly unsafe and has an outside chance
* PASCO is quite interesting as a Novice winner
* I would have prefered a little more than 3 chase runs
* The 2000 winner Samakaan managed it though
* Statistically he is shortlistable but there are worries
* His trainer has argued he wants softer ground
* He has also argued he may not like the track
* Ruby Walsh has also rejected him for Poquelin
* I find it hard to go with him because of that
* VALAIN is very hard to assess properly
* Not sure how relevant running on the flat recently is
* JP McManus owns him and CLEW BAY COVE
* Mc Coy rides CLEW BAY COVE
* I suspect thats because he cant do 10st 1lbs
* McCoy hasnt ridden below 10st 4lbs in the last year
* VALAIN may well be the stable preference
* It would trouble me he ran on the flat
* If he was fancied to win and prepared to perfection
* Why would he run on the flat just 2 weeks before
* As it was his first run since September it may be fitness
* Connections may have felt he wasnt fit
* That may be a rushed prearation
* VALAIN is a big price and that does help with worries
* Respect and Shortlist him but dont select him
* CLEW BAY COVE looks a bit exposed to me
* There has been winners like him but some time ago
* He has had 14 Handicap Chase runs so has no secrets
* You can also argue he may want softer ground
* I am not convinced about him to be honest
* TRAMANTANO looks unfancied at 40/1
* He was beaten 16 lengths in this race last year
* I tipped him in last years race at 25/1
* One or two early mistakes hurt his chance last year
* He is much Fresher this year and he needs that
* This horse is always best after an absence
* With 1 run since November he will be fresh enough
* He loves the track and I am betting him again
I’M SO LUCKY
* I’M SO LUCKY has a very smart profile
* I Looked at horses that had this profile like him
* Coming from a 2m Handicap chase in Class 2
* At least 9 runs and at least 3 that year
* Run within 7 weeks
* Starting 20/1 or shorter
* Has ran in Graded Class before
* Has won in their last 6 races
* Carrying less than 11st
* I’M SO LUCKY has that profile
* SO did 6 other horses that ran in this race before
* Those 6 horses had the following record
* W  W  W  2  3  5
* I’M SO LUCKY will love the drying ground
* He ran very well last time on ground too soft
* His previous race he was beaten by Planet Of Sound
* That horse was 3rd in Tuesdays Grade 1 Arkle
* I’M SO LUCKY had to give him 10lbs that day
* We now know that was an impossible task
* He won his previous 2 races easily
* Statistically he is strong as a lightly raced chaser
* He isnt over exposed in handicaps
* My only worry is will he handle the track
* He has a lot of flat track form
* Its a serious worry and I dont know the answer to it
Two Bets for me in this race
TRAMANTANO Each Way Bet at 40/1
I’M SO LUCKY Win Bet at 20/1

Posted under horse racing tips