Saturday Racing

Mathematician 429

No Account Bet

1 Selection

Newmarket 5.05

RUN FOR EDE’S   2/1

Just one selection on a Rain hit Saturday.

There is one bit of 9/4 (bet365) but RUN FOR EDE’S is 2/1 with most bookmakers.

I have done something in the Stewards Cup but have no strong view there after Goodwood has changed the ground. Other than that there are Five Previews in the message. Happy enough with these races but there is only one horse I fancy enough to make a selection and thats RUN FOR EDE’S. Not a brilliant price but she only has 6 opponents. The weather is spoling the summer at the moment and when its lashing down as it is today all we can do is keep mistakes down to a minimum and be selective. Thats why I havent had an account bet today. RUN FOR EDE’S ran really well last week on a Grade 1 track in a much better race. I dont see any of her rivals achieving that level. In a weird twist of handicapping because she’s been underrated for two recent wins and Sir Boss has been hit hard for two recent wins RUN FOR EDE’S gets quite a bit of weight from Sir Boss when really her last two runs suggest that she ought to be conceeding weight not recieving it. I think that makes her look solid. She is my only bet today and I just want to get one winner on a day the weather throws all kinds of danger at us. There will be the planned Sunday Message tomorrow.

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T O D A Y ‘ S    R A C I N G

One selection yesterday. DEAUVILLE FLYER won having
landed a big evening gamble. I suppose it all depends on what sort of price you got. He was 6/1 in plenty of places yesterday and 5/1 for most of the day but the money came in form him late and he has been returned a ridiculous 9/4. Once he was in a dule with Crocus Rose I was always confident he would stay better. Nice way to end a difficult July. Cant do any harm to the confidence and we start a Fresh month today.

Unusually a 2.30 message today on a Saturday. I know from
experience just how difficult todays cards are.
I felt my best chances came later on and with a poor weather forecast there is much more sense in sending a later message and allowing a bit more time to play some videos.

NEWMARKET 5.05

SPORTINGBET HANDICAP (CLASS 4)(4yo+ 0-85) 1m4f

2/1 Run For Ede’s, 9/4 Sir Boss, 5/1 Mubrook,  10/1 Clear Reef, 16/1 Force Group, 25/1 Rowan Rio, 33/1 Coeur De Lionne.

SELECTION –  RUN FOR EDE’S

The market has chosen SIR BOSS as the favourite ahead of
RUN FOR EDE’S and I dont really see why thats justified. I
fully respect SIR BOSS as an improving 4 year old and I dont have any strong objections to him at all but he has won his last 2 races which were only 0-58 and 0-77 races and his last run in that 0-77 was only a Class 5 handicap and having been raised 11lbs by the handicapper he now finds himself topweight. His last 2 handicap wins were hardly in quality races much as he did it well. Consider the fact RUN FOR EDE’S has just also won two handicaps. They were in 0-85 and 0-77 handicaps no worse at all than SIR BOSS and RUN FOR EDE’S has also ran a very decent 4th in a Class 2 handicap. RUN FOR EDE’S was a  strong 4th in a 0-104 handicap at Ascot. It was a C2 Heritage handicap. 12 of her 15 opponents would not even be allowed to run in this race. RUN FOR EDE’S was beaten only 1.75 lengths from 4lbs out of the handicap. Whilst SIR BOSS has seen his rating jump from 68 to 74 and now 85 its highly interesting that RUN FOR EDE’S having achieved a lot more
has seen her rating only go from 70 to 74. She has only gone up 4lbs for winning two handicaps and running 4th in a 0-104 handicap. Bizzarely that means SIR BOSS has to concede 9lbs and a jockeys allowance to RUN FOR EDE’S who surely has achieved much more. RUN FOR EDE’S surely has to be better value around 3/1 notwithstanding SIR BOSS may have more improvement. I think at these weights RUN FOR EDE’S has to be the better option. I respect some of the others but she must be hard to beat. MUBROOK has a chance and he is fine  statistically as a lightly raced 4 year old. He hasnt won a race though and he wasnt handicapped instead just running on merit as a 3 year old and thats left me thinking that he may well be rated accurately and may not be thrown in off his current mark. Neither FORCE GROUP or ROWAN RIO strike me as horses about to win. CLEAR REEF is another big runner with the ground coming right but he is both exposed and coming down over 2f in distance and horses that did that didnt score that well. He is a danger though but I dont see a better option than RUN FOR EDE’S

SELECTION –  RUN FOR EDE’S

Posted under horse racing tips

Lincoln Handicap Statistics

William Hill Lincoln Statistics

Forecast Odds
7/2 Expresso Star 7/1 Swop , 8/1 Charm School, 10/1 Huzzah
12/1 Don’t Panic 12/1 Flipando, Zaahid , 14/1 Titan Triumph
16/1 Benandonner ,20/1 Blythe Knight, 20/1 Docofthebay
20/1 Mia’s Boy, 20/1 Whistledownwind, 20/1 Bolodenka
25/1 Lady Deauville , 25/1 Eva’s Request, 25/1 Royal Power
25/1 European Dream , 25/1 Dream Lodge, 25/1 Cobo Bay
25/1 Ace of Hearts, 33/1 Philario.
For Live Current Odds from multiple bookmakers

Click Here

* The Lincoln is a Class 2 Handicap over a Mile
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* There has been 57 similar races elsewhere
* Horses aged 7 or more have a 1-43 record in this race
* Horses aged 7 or more struggled in 57 races
* They had a 2-144 record
* Those aged 7 + with Group form were 0-47
* Those aged 7 or more that were Male were 0-139
* The only runners aged 7 + to be considered are female
* Horses aged 6 or more are just 3-116 in this race
* All 3 were exposed and seasonal debutants
* None of the winners aged 6 + had ran in Group races before (0-42)
* None of the winners aged 6 + had ran this season (0-35)
* They all came from Class 2 handicaps last year
* None of the winners aged 6 + had 9st 1lbs or more (0-33)
* Horses with under 4 runs have a 0-7 record in this race
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs won only 4 of the 17 Lincolns
* Exposed horses won 13 of the 57 other handicaps
* Those with prior Group Class form were just 1-88
* Those dropping from 9f or more were 0-97
* Those with 9st 5lbs or more were 0-101
* Exposed horses winning the Lincoln were all seasonal debutants
* Those that had run this season were 0-59
* Exposed horses aged under 6 were just 1-57
* Exposed horses that ran in Group Class before are 0-34
* Exposed horses that are Male have a poor 2-135 record
* Exposed horses beaten 10 + lengths last time are 0-50
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs carrying 9st 1lbs or more are 0-36
* Horses with 13 + runs that ran on sand this winter were 1-94
* Horses with 13 + runs that ran in Group Class before were 0-71
* Horses with 13 + runs that carried 9st 1lbs or more were 1-63
* Horses with 2 + runs this season were 1-51
* 6 winners came from the All Weather
* 5 of the 6 winners coming from the sand had under 13 starts
* Horses that came from the sand with 13 or more starts were 1-103
* All 41 aged 6 or more that came from the sand lost
* None of the Sand winners lost by 10 + lengths last time (0-37)
* None of the 6 winners from the Sand came from 7f or shorter (0-31)
* Only 1 of the 6 winners from the sand carried 8st 12lbs or more (1-44)
* Looking at the record of 4 year olds in this race
* Horses aged 4 are best with 4-20 starts
* Horses aged 4 already tested in Listed Grade or higher are 1-52
* Horses aged 4 that were absent 7 months or more were 0-18
* Fillies aged 4 are 0-17
* None of the 4 year old winners came from a 3yo handicap (0-18)
* None of the 4 year old winners lost 10 +lengths last time (0-43)
* Looking now at 5 year olds
* Horses aged 5 are best with 9-20 races
* None of the past 5 year old winners had ran in Group class before (0-19)
* Three recent 5yo winners came here having placed on sand within 2 weeks
* The LINCOLN winner has rarely run in Group Class before (1-90)
* In 16 renewals the only past winner that did that was Babodana (2004)
* Those that did run within 15 days had the following traits – They were all:
* Male horses Aged 4 or 5 with 5-20 runs that came Placed from a Class 2 handicap
* They also ran over at least a mile are had under 9st
* If you look at seasonal debutants they won 13 of the 16 renewals
* Seasonal debutants that came from 9f or more had a weak 1-74 record
* Apprentice Jockeys had a 1-64 record in the last 16 years
* In 16 renewals horses beaten 10 lengths or more last time had a 1-119 record
* All 16 winners had at least placed in their last 6 runs and 15 had won
* None of the 16 winners came from a Class 4-5-6 handicap last time out
* Horses from 6f races won in 1994 and 1995
* Both were seasonal debutants aged 4 or 5 and had 8st 6lbs or less
* Horses that came from 9f or more have won 2 recent renewals
* Those with under 9 runs were 0-15
* None of these horses that came from 9f or more had 21 + runs (0-41)
* None of these horses that came from 9f or more were aged 6 or more (0-36)
* Horses that were in the Top 3 of the weights had a 1-54 record
* Horses with 9st 1lbs or more had a 2-91 record
* Both winners had under 21 starts and were seasonal debutants aged 4-5
* If a Horse has come 2nd in their last 6 runs – but not won its a problem
* These types have a 0-71 record
* Horses up in trip with fewer than 13 previous races had a 1-34 record
* No horse won this race coming from a 3 year old handicap before
* Horses with 9st 3lbs or more had a weak 2-74 record
* Horses with 9st 1lbs + with 21 or more races before had a 0-36 record

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