November Handicap Stats

November Handicap Stats 2015

Guy has carried out a bit of stat research preparation

work into The November Handicap at Doncaster this Saturday.

I have popped it on a webpage at our main site.

Here is the link is you fancy a nosey at what he has unearthed.

November Handicap Stats

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 5, 2015

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November Handicap Stats

November Handicap Stats – Doncaster – 3.35 Saturday Nov 9th

For those of you that are interested see below some of my advance research

into this Saturday’s November handicap at Doncaster.

 

The November Handicap is a 12f handicap

* Since 1997 there has been 16 renewals of this race

* The Draw throws up one very interesting statistic
* Since 2005 there has been 18 Handicaps at Doncaster
* That’s only 18 Handicaps that had 16 or more runners
* The winners came from the following Stalls
* 8 9 20 16 9 20 19 9 15 10 14 9 17 22 10 13 18 10
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 had a 0-122 record
* I suspect a sharp early bend cuts off the low draws

* Fitness is obviously crucial in this race
* Past winners had the following absences
* 14 51 22 35 57 35 41 36 26 14 15 7 34 15 41 24 days
* In 21 renewals the longest absent winner was 57 days

* All winners had at least 4 runs that season as well
* Horses with 1-2-3 runs this season have struggled
* The last to do this was back in 1990
* Since then all 89 that tried have failed

* This is the official rating of the last 15 winners
* 93 93 97 98 95 97 99 93 97 89 87 75 80 82 105
* Only 1 recent winner was rated 100 or more
* No horse rated 100+ won in the previous 14 renewals
* All 35 that tried to do this failed

* Horses aged 3 have a 11-129 record since 1990
* The 11 winners had the following official ratings
* 97 82 84 97 87 93 73 90 91 91 99
* No 3yo winner had ever ran in Group races before
* All 11 winners aged 3 ran within 36 days
* The 11 winners aged 3 have these career runs
* 9 12 4 13 4 15 6 7 8 8 6
* Most recent 3yo winners were up in class
* They all came from Class 3 or lower
* Look at 3 year olds from Class 2 or better
* Since 1994 these horses were 0-40
* The last 3yo to win from a Class 2 race was 1994
* These days when they win they do so from lower grade
* There were 3 past winners aged 3 going up in trip
* These three winners had 13 15 8 runs

* Horses aged 4 won 9 races since 1988
* They had the following official ratings
* 93 97 98 99 89 75 96 94 70
* They all had at least 9 career starts
* Recent 4yo winners had 24 39 21 26 12 15 14 career starts
* Be wary of 4yo’s who won last time out
* Horses aged 4 doing this were 0-40 since 1988
* No filly aged 4 has won this since before 1988
* The 4yo winners all had at least 6 runs this season
* None had ran in Group races before
* None came from Class 4 or lower (0-55)

* Horses aged 5 have a 4-96 record
* They had official ratings of 80 95 93 90
* They had 32 39 12 39 career starts
* They all came from 13f or further last time out

* No past winners came from Group races
* Its very rare the winner ever raced in Group Class before

* Horses aged 6 or more have a very weak record
* In this race they have a 1-91 record
* Since 1980 only 2 winners of this race were aged 6 or more

* I looked at horses that came from 10f or shorter
* There were 7 winners that did that
* Horses Aged 4 or more doing this had a 0-40 record

 

I hope the above helps some of you you whittle down your own sensible short list.

I won’t finalise my own final views on the race till tomorrow morning.

The new Saturday daypass option is an easy non commital way to get my end thoughts on this and several other key races tomorrow.

Best of Luck

Guy

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 8, 2013

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The Spring Mile

Following on from a winner at 9/1 in the Gold Cup
George Guru won last week for us at about 13/8.

I am realistic and resigned to the fact that today
may well result in a loser and probably will.

The main focus is Doncaster today. It is always a tough
card but we know what we are getting.

Given the type of race I am betting in I will be delighted to
get anything out of it. REVE DE NUIT may
be underpriced here as a fit horse thats well treated so
I want to bet him but there is a doubt about the trip.

The Spring Mile – Doncaster  2.05

* The Spring Mile is a Class 2 Handicap over 8f
* Its a Consolation race for horses not in the Lincoln
* I have looked at the 19 Spring Mile races

* I have to first try and predict the draw bias
* Doncaster have had 14 similar races since 2006
* Thats 14 Handicaps with 17 or more ruinners
* The winners came from the following stalls
* 11 16 16 1 19 20 9 9 18 12 12 17 16 10
* 13 of the 14 races went to horses drawn 9 +
* Those drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 were just 1-109
* That was 2010 Lincoln winner Penitent on soft ground
* This evidence suggests low numbers are vulnerable

* I want to try and narrow this down statistically
* Horses aged 7 or more have a 0-72 record
* Horses that dropped in trip from 9f and longer were 0-96
* There were 5 winners that had ran this year
* None had 4 or more runs since January 1st
* I’d avoid exposed horses with 1 run this season
* Horses from 3yo handicaps need under 9 runs
* There were 3 past winners from 7f or shorter
* None were aged 6 or more
* REDVERS falls a bit short and I hate his draw
* He has also downgraded stables since his last run
* PRINCE OF BURMA is the wrong type
* SHAMDARLEY – A bit exposed from a 3yo handicap
* I’d have liked fewer runs for a 4yo doing this
* SHAMDARLEY has a few too many runs
* I looked at 4yo seasonal debutants from 7f
* Several run with under 6 runs those with more are 0-65
* WEAPON OF CHOICE fails that
* CAPTAIN BERTIE fails that with 10 runs
* LEVIATHAN has flaws down from 10f
* SNOW BAY – Will probably need the run
* He has a career high mark as well
* Most of his form is on sharp tracks as well
* SNOW BAY wouldnt interest me
* I looked at 4 year olds that ran within 2 weeks
* Those with 9 or more runs were 0-57
* KINGSCROFT fails that with 27 races
* ARABIAN SPIRIT – Didnt do enough last time
* KAY GEE BE is a seasonal debutant aged 8
* Very few winners his aged managed to do that
* The only ones that did had Group form before
* KAY GEE BE doesnt and I see him as unsafe
* He also has a career high mark first time out aged 8
* PERFECT CRACKER is 4 and up in distance
* That wont be easy with a 92 day break
* I dont think he has the backclass to overcome that
* MONT RAS  has been the big ante post gamble
* He was 16/1 a few days ago and has been backed in
* MONT RAS is 5 and has 7 runs
* Last years winner Eton Forever had the same profile
* Both are seasonal debutants as well
* That shortlists him but he only has Class 3 backclass
* Eton Forever had Group class form before winning last year
* MONT RAS lack of backclass troubles me most

SHORTLIST

* FIRST POST – Has enough to shortlist
* He is up in class and I’d rather he wasnt
* I also wonder if his draw is a bit too high
* CROWN COUNSEL – I dont mind his profile
* REVE DE NUIT – I like his profile well raced this year
* He is badly handicapped on sand and has had recent excuses
* His Turf mark is much better
* I would like more turf form at 8f but he is a positive

Selection

REVE DE NUIT at 14/1 could be interesting. He has had
3 runs this Callender year 2 of which were in the last three weeks
and a 7 day absence looks very helpfull.
He must be one of the fittest horses here.
The dilemma is whether he is better on sand and whether he needs further.
I think he is a good risk for the following reasons.

* His rating on Grass is 11lbs lower than on Sand
* He has won a better race than this on Grass of this mark
* In terms of the trip it is a slight worry
* Last time out though he placed at a Mile at Lingfield
* That was a better class race than this was
* Lingfield is a very easy Mile and this is much stiffer
* With a long straight it will give him time to finish
* If he can place there with a fitness edge he can here
* His jockey is an interesting booking as well
* REVE DE NUIT 14/1 looks the best option

14/1  in multiple spots including s james Paddy Power Ladbrokes Coral

Same odds at bet365 but they have the extra perk of paying out 5 places so go there and each way if they still let you get a bet on with them.

 

———————————-

PS   I have further  full bets for full members today in the 6.05

So plenty of time to get them and get on if you wish to join up as a client proper.

See Here For More info ==> Betting Advice

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 31, 2012

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Each Way Bet At Doncastor

D o n c a s t e r   3.45

7/2 Cry Fury, 9/2 Sarrsar, 11/2 Eton Forever
6/1 Sooraah, 7/1 Man Of Action, 12/1 Casual Glimpse
12/1 Vainglory, 14/1 Crown Counsel, 16/1 Fareer
16/1 Mia4s Boy, 33/1 Just Bond, 100/1 Majuro.

* This is a 8f handicap for horses rated 0-103
* Doncaster have had 17 renewals of this race
* There has been 39 similar class 2 handicaps elsewhere
* There were 10 winners aged 3
* None had 13 + career starts (0-24)
* CROWN COUNSEL fails that and looks wrong
* Horses aged 3 coming from 7f races won 2 races
* None had 9 or more career starts (0-16)
* CASUAL GLIMPSE fails that
* JUST BOND is on a career high mark in a class too high
* JUST BOND doesnt appeal aged 9 absent over a month
* MIA4S BOY is 7 and comes from a 7f race
* Thats not easy to do with just 3 runs this season
* There is a worry he has gone off the boil a little
* MAJURO is outclassed at the moment
* SOORAAH is a 4yo filly
* There was 1 winner like that in 39 races (1-18)
* That winner was exposed and she is not
* That winner had far more runs that year
* SOORAAH is too unsafe absent 43 days
* She isnt a negative but I prefer others
* The weight could be important here
* 17 past renewals and horses with 9st 5lbs + are 0-28
* SARRSAR has 9st 10lbs to carry more than all winners
* I found a few similar 4 year olds to him
* None won last time and none had his weight
* None of the 39 winners won with 9st 9lbs or more
* ETON FOREVER is a 4yo absent 87 days
* I have found 4 year old with a similar profile
* That was the 2009 winner of this race
* He also came from the Royal Hunt Cup
* ETON FOREVER looks interesting on that alone
* The 2009 winner did have 4 runs that season
* ETON FOREVER only has 3 runs
* The 2009 winner also had 15lbs less weight
* ETON FOREVER has 9st 10lbs and thats a problem
* We know None of the 39 winners carried that
* MAN OF ACTION is 4 with 1-2-3 runs this year
* The only winners with that profile had Group form
* He also has a months absence to overcome
* I would like more runs this season

S h o r t l i s t

* CRY FURY is very lightly raced down in trip
* I found a similar winner winning a similar race
* That horse didnt win last time and had less weight
* Hard to read him I wasnt completely convinced
* Besides that is it in his best interests to win this ?
* He has the Cambridgeshire as a target next time out
* He should easily make the race on his rating
* Wouldnt surprise me to see him 2nd or 3rd or 4th

* VAINGLORY has an acceptable profile
* I found 2 winners his age with similar profiles
* He has a tough mark but its not beyond him
* He is beginning to look like a small field horse
* This field will be small enough for him
* VAINGLORY comes from a good trial race
* He comes from the Goddard Stakes at York
* So did the winners in 1997 99 00 01 05 07 and 2010
* He is too big a price at 14/1

Selection

VAINGLORY 14/1 Each Way  stan j    bet365

Posted under horse racing tips