This free blog poses a few conundrums for us.

If you recall back in August we mentioned a change from our old style very select Account Bets to a more frequent style of bet we call the Daily Recommendation.

These have been doing very well for full members of mathematician betting.

Return on investment to date is about 140%

ie for every £1000 staked you would have gotten £1400 back for a net profit of £400

See old sample at http://www.horse-betting-blog.co.uk/horse-racing-tips/horse-betting-message-for-saturday/

With paying clients to consider and respect however we can not put these up here for free  every weekend.

What we post here is often the second class stuff from deeper in the message.

With several double digit winners here however it is second class for us but still worth you noting.

It does leave us with the conundrum however of we want to impress you so you will join but at the same time you are not seeing the best as we have to respect our normal clients.

Not quite sure what the best solution is but for now all I can do is suggest you join up as a full member.

You can always call on the refund guarantee if you change your mind.

Hopefully you will stay long term however when you realise you have found a good thing.

This week my chores involved asking two members who joined for a year about a year ago to renew. Both were very keen to do so and joined up for another year. Its a hard thing to measure a service on but if there were some official means to measure a service on how happy clients were to renew long term subscriptions.. Mathematician Betting would score very highly indeed.

We still have clients who joined us first over five years ago !

We do have right now in the full member area a proper Daily Recommendation for today .

On to todays free blog race however.

Its an interesting choice with a  bit of market support for it since given out to full members earlier this morning.

CHEPSTOW 4.10

Totesport 0800 221 221 Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)  2m4f

4/1 Duke Of Lucca, 4/1 Pistolet Noir, 6/1 Working Title
7/1 Restless Harry, 8/1 Sir Harry Ormesher, 10/1 Tullamore Dew 12/1 Any Given Day, 12/1 Pickamus, 14/1 Benbane Head
16/1 Mohanad, 20/1 Dantari, 20/1 Mad Moose
25/1 Chief Yeoman, 33/1 Hills Of Aran.

* This is a 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle in Listed Class
* There has been 18 renewals of this race

This race has been dominated by seasonal debutants. Only 3
of the 18 winners had run this season. Horses that had done
that but who failed to win this year were 0-43 so DANTARI
ANY GIVEN DAY -MAD MOOSE and Hills OF ARAN do
not appeal. WORKING TITLE has won this season. Horses
doing that coming from 2m 4f or further have a weak 0-35
record. Horses it aged 6 or more were just 1-38 and the sole winner had a loss less weight and I see WORKING TITLE as unsafe. Exposed horses like CHIEF YEOMAN are opposable.
No horse won first time out from a handicap chase which is
a problem for PICKAMUS and Henry Daly doesnt look like
a trainer to trust with debutants and he might need this race. There were 2 winners aged 4 but both were lightly raced and I did not think MOHANAD was the right type or 4 year old. TULLAMORE DEW is a little bit exposed for a debutant and  may just have a bit too much weight for his age.

* PISTOLET NOIR – 1 similar winner but unsafe
* DUKE OF LUCCA – Good profile aside from his weight
* Horses with 11st 5lbs or more are 1-44 in this race
* Thats a big worry for DUKE OF LUCCA
* SIR HARRY ORMESHER – His age and weight are problems
* RESTLESS HARRY – shortlistable but a nasty weight

SELECTION

BENBANE HEAD has a good a profile as any and looks
a bit of value. There were many Novice Hurdle Seasonal
debutants like him with Grade 1 form and a light weight
and many of the better profiles in the race have weights
that are hard to carry in this race so he does appeal as a
decent price in an open race.

Was about 8/1 earlier when given to full members

Now 13/2 at Tote

Posted under horse racing tips

I have previewed ten races today for full members.

For full service joining info See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

One of them I will pop up on the free blog.

NEWMARKET 2.05

Bbag-sales.de Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 1m2f

2/1 Psychic Ability, 11/2 Rumble Of Thunder, 13/2 Abergavenny 13/2 Spanish Duke,  Kindest, 10/1 Putra One, 12/1 Geneva Geyser 14/1 Bollin Dolly,16/1 Ramona Chase 40/1 All Annalena.

This is a complicated 10f Handicap. There are only 34 of these Class 2 handicaps in August. They’ve all gone to horses younger than BOLLIN DOLLY. My problem with PSYCHIC ABILITY  is having 1 run this year something no horse like him managed to do. I think the following statistic puts this in its right context.

* August has had 824 Handicaps at Every Distance
* Thats 824 races at any Distance in Class 2 and Class 3
* I looked at 3 year olds with 1 run this season
* There was a 3-67 record in these 824 races
* 1 of these came from a Group Class race so ignore that
* Those that had No Group class form were 2-52
* None of them won last time out (0-8)
* None of then won at shorter than 12f (0-42)
* Those with 8st 12lbs or more were 0-36
* Those with Under 5 career starts were 0-29
* That included 7 beaten favourites
* PSYCHIC ABILITY fails all these angles

I think the above statistics show it should be wise to try and get an alternative to PSYCHIC ABILITY who has after all got some Cheekpieces after just 3 runs. RUMBLE OF THUNDER is 4 and  has over 12 career starts and no 4 year old that esposed managed  to win with under 4 runs that season. I think he would have been Far better with another run. ALL ANNALENA also fails that as well. Horses aged 4 with 1-2-3 races this season need to be very  lightly raced and to have had form in Class 2 or higher. All those
that won also finished 1-2-3 last time out and failing those angles  is PUTRA ONE who may lack the backclass to win.

The 34 races show fillies having a 1-34 record and KINDEST is  not going to find this easy when you consider it’s a Handicap in Class 2 and she has never been out of a Class 4 race yet. She has benefitted from the rain but this is a step up in class for her. To  win a Class 2 Handicap you want recent form. The horses beaten  over 10 lengths last time were just 1-109 which puts me against RAMONA CHASE who was hammered last time. Horses aged 3 coming from 3yo handicaps have won these races.  However it is interesting None of them came from 12f races. None of them had an absence of more than a month and none had under 4 runs
that year. SPANISH DUKE has all of those factors against him.

* August has seen 286 Class 2 Handicaps at every distance
* Horses from 3yo handicaps when absent over a month are 4-79
* Those with 7 or more runs had a 0-47 record
* SPANISH DUKE has 9 runs and absent 63 days
* I think he is too exposed for a 3yo
* Especially facing a very unpleasant absence.

GENEVA GEYSER is 4 and has 4 runs this season and I see him  having too much weight for a 4yo with just 4 runs this year and  10st and he fails to make the shortlist.

SELECTION

ABERGAVENNY comes from a 3yo handicap but he has the
recent run and all the right backclass and is lightly raced and  thats a good profile and I dont see a better option. There is a question mark about the ground but there is no obvious reason why he should not appreciate it. I like ABERGAVENNY.

6/1 available widely including betfred, bet365, Ladbrokes

7/1 Betfair

check currest best odds at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-08-07/newmarket/14-05/betting/

Posted under horse racing tips

1 Selection

Leicester 1.55

HUSTLE 5/1 bet365

Each Way

The horse I want to bet  today
is HUSTLE. I think he will settle early and after a
furlong or so he will be a little outpaced and look
like he is under pressure. He should come back on
the bridle in the last two furlongs and use his turn
of foot to mow these down if Jamie Spencer can
ride him correctly. I dont think there are many
who can win this race. He comes from a good trial
race and will be finishing when many have cried
enough and I think it will take a dissapointing run
for him not be placed and I think he can win.

**********************************************
**********************************************

T O D A Y ‘S R A C I N G

Winner yesterday with REINDEER DIPPIN. He was not
pretty but he won in a workmanlike fashion and quite
a good price in such a small field and I have to be happy
with that. It may have been over hurdles and another
mismashed message but he won and I am keeping it
tight and profitable at the moment and whilst we are
lacking fireworks I am not in bad form. I am in control
of the racing at the moment which is a good sign.

LEICESTER 1.55

TotePLACEPOT HANDICAP (CLASS 4)
(4yo+,0-85) 5f218y

9/2 Hustle, 5/1 Pravda Street, 8/1 Kipchak, 8/1 Vhujon,
10/1 Filligree, 10/1 Gift Horse, 11/1 Dancing Maite,
11/1 Dickie Le Davoir, 12/1 Peter Island, 12/1 Sparton
Duke, 14/1 Harlech Castle, 16/1 Charles Darwin, 16/1
Timber Treasure, 20/1 Methaaly.

* This is a 0-85 handicap just short of 6 furlongs
* This race has an 13 year history
* There has been 100 similar races run at other tracks
* Seasonal debutants had a 1-43 record in this race
* FILLIGREE is a seasonal debutant filly
* 4yo fillies first time out like her won 3 races
* All 3 that won had ran in better grade than her
* She is also on a career high mark and not for me
* SPARTON DUKE is also a 4yo seasonal debutant
* These types are 0-18 in this race
* Horses with 1 run this year underperformed
* HARLECH CASTLE does this and comes from 5f
* Those with 1 run this year coming from 5f were 3-83
* None won this race at Leicester
* None anywhere lost as far as he did last time
* HARLECH CASTLE looks opposable
* Exposed horses with 1 run this year struggled
* All 36 that ran in this Leicester race lost
* PETER ISLAND fails that and has a months break
* GIFT HORSE fails this and usually wins later in the year
* TIMBER TREASURE doesnt appeal well beaten over 5f
* Horses dropping from 7f had a 1-48 record in this race
* In other races they did a bit better
* Those with under 7 runs though were just 1-33
* PRAVDA STREET does that
* Horses that won with under 7 runs were different types
* Those like him that ran this year were 1-31
* PRAVDA STREET is opposed
* KIPCHAK has just won over 7f
* All horses that came from 7f races had more backclass
* I didnt think he was safe in this race
* Not up 9lbs in the weights and up in class
* CHARLES DARWIN hasnt run into form yet
* I feel he needs more runs before he wins
* I cant find a winner like DICKIE LE DAVOIR
* He was beaten too far for me last time

SHORTLIST

HUSTLE
DANCING MAITE
VHUJON

* DANCING MAITE has a very solid profile
* I would have been happier with one factor
* No past winner came from the sand as he does
* I would have liked to have seen that
* HUSTLE comes from the same race as 2 past winners
* The 2006 and 2008 winners came from the same race
* VHUJON also ran in that race but has run since
* They were 4th and 5th in that race and hard to split
* VHUJON is not out of this
* My worry for VHUJON is stall one
* Not sure how bad a draw that might be
* I would rather be drawn high though
* My concern for HUSTLE is will he go the pace
* I see him at the back being bustled along
* I see him crusing through in the last furlong
* He will look the winner but will he run out of road
* His last race over 6f was actually sharper than this
* Despite less yardage this Course and Distance is stiffer
* It takes a second more to run over this trip and track
* Thats a massive help to HUSTLE in my view

SELECTION- HUSTLE

each way 5/1 bet365

Best Wishes

Guy

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips