Eider Chase Ante Post Preview

Below is a bit of early analysis Guy sent to full members yesterday.

The Future Betting Angles sub section of his daily full member messages

contains regular bits and bobs of ante post related thought.

Yesterday his eyes were fixed on the Eider Chase.

I guess you could consider this phase one early work.

He will dig deeper into the race closer to the off.

It was an easy snippet to copy and paste up here

so I thought I would share it with you in case you had any interest in the race yourself.

 


Ante Post

Saturday February 23rd

Newcastle

EIDER CHASE

Daklondike 10/1 Ballydine 12/1 Calett Mad 12/1
Folsom Blue 12/1 Shades of Midnight 12/1
Kilkishen 12/1 Skipthescales 12/1 Baywing 12/1
Jammin Masters 12/1 Ange des Malberaux 12/1
Back To The Thatch 12/1 Beware The Bear 12/1
Big River 14/1 The Last Samuri 14/1 Yala Enki 14/1
Cogry 14/1 Dinnie's Vinnie 16/1 Chef d'Oeuvre 16/1
Crosspark 16/1 Sharp Response 16/1 Missed Approach16/1
Just Your Type 16/1 West of The Edge 16/1 Takingrisks 16/1
Raz de Maree 20/1 Geronimo 20/1 Rock On Fruity  20/1
Vicente 20/1 Harry The Viking 20/1 Otago Trail 20/1
Red Infantry 20/1 Kimberlite Candy 20/1 Progress Drive  25/1
Lovely Job 25/1 Regal Flow 25/1 Zerachiel 25/1
Prime Venture 25/1 Donna's Diamond 25/1 Potters Corner 25/1
Little Bruce 33/1 Chic Name 33/1 Morney Wing 33/1
Sideways  33/1 Total Assets 33/1 Courtown Oscar 33/1
Shelford 33/1 Mysteree 33/1 Two Smokin Barrels 40/1
Kilcullen Flem 50/1 Court Frontier 50/1 Newtown Lad  66/1
Crank Em Up 80/1


4m Handicap Chase

One of my favourite races

52 horses are entered in this

Running plans not yet clear

Today I want to eliminate a few

Coming from different blocks of horses



UNLIKELY TO RUN

Based on recent renewals
The following horses are rated too low
And probably will not make the cut

Total Assets 33/1
Sideways  33/1
Kilcullen Flem 50/1
Court Frontier 50/1
Newtown Lad  66/1
Crank Em Up 80/1


AGE

Horses aged 14 + have never won
The last winner aged 13 was 1987
The last winner aged 12 was 1995

14 year olds

Raz de Maree 20/1 is rejected
Harry The Viking 20/1 is rejected

12 year olds

Handicap Chases since 1998
Any Time of year
3m 6f or more
Class 2 or higher
Look at horses aged 12 or more
They have a miserable 1-188 record
That was Amberleigh House in the National

Regal Flow 25/1 is a 12yo
Folsom Blue 25/1 is a 12yo


NUMBER OF CHASE RUNS

Past winners
Had these Chase runs
7 7 11 8 11 5 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8

If you look at the last 16 winners
15 of these had under 14 career starts

The following horses
All look exposed and vulnerable

Number of Chase runs

39 Harry The Viking
35 Morney Wing
31 Raz de Maree
30 Folsom Blue
29 Cogry
26 Dinnie's Vinnie
25 Regal Flow
24 Rock On Fruity
23 Court Frontier
23 West of The Edge
22 Yala Enki
20 Vicente
19 The Last Samuri


OFFICIAL RATINGS

All past winners since 1997
Were rated 140 or lower

Yala Enki is rated 156
Tough ask when short of runs
Otago Trail 20/1 is rated 152
Beware The Bear 12/1 is rated 151
He will fail breeding stats as well
Daklondike is rated 148
Thats 8lbs more than all past winners
He is not the best aged anyway as a 7yo
You can argue he is underraced this season
Baywing 12/1 is rated 147
I see him as underraced explained later
Calett Mad 12/1 is rated 147
Thats far more than all past winners
Not safe as a 7yo with an absence
Missed Approach 16/1 is rated 145
He has raced just once this season


RUNS THIS SEASON

If you look at past winners
How many races they had ran
Since August 1st that season
They had 4 2 3 5 3 3 5 2 5 3 4 4 6 7 7 4 3 6 6 runs

In the last at 19 renewals
17 of the 19 winners had 3 + runs that year
19 of the 19 winners had 2 + runs that year

Horses rejected
With just 1 run this season

Missed Approach 16/1
Zerachiel 25/1
Courtown Oscar 33/1

Horses rejected
With just 2 runs this season

Kilcullen Flem
Big River
Harry The Viking
Vicente
Baywing
Beware The Bear
The Last Samuri
Lovely Job
Yala Enki
Progress Drive

INEXPERIENCED

Past winners had these Chase runs
7 7 11 8 11 5 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8
No winners had under 5 chase starts

Just Your Type 16/1 has 3 chase runs
Skipthescales 12/1 has 2 chase runs


OTHER OBJECTIONS

Don't want to risk a horse
Out of form and not running well enough
This pair look vulnerable on this angle
Shelford 33/1
Mysteree 33/1

Back To The Thatch 10/1

He may be the ante post favourite
But there are breeding stats against him

Worries me his sire is Westerner

Horses sired by Westerner
Running in Class 2 or higher
Have a 0-55 record over 3m 2f and more
Back To The Thatch fails this statistic

Little Bruce is 7 years old
Only 2 winners aged 7 won since 1997
Horses aged 7 won in 1998 and 2012
They both ran within the last 3 weeks
Little Bruce does not do that

This leaves the following horses
Who have not yet failed a major angle
Several of these will not be running

Early Shortlist

Ballydine 12/1
Shades of Midnight 12/1
Kilkishen 12/1
Jammin Masters 12/1
Ange des Malberaux 12/1
Chef d'Oeuvre 16/1
Crosspark 16/1
Sharp Response 16/1
Takingrisks 16/1
Geronimo 20/1
Red Infantry 20/1
Kimberlite Candy 20/1
Prime Venture 25/1
Donna's Diamond 25/1
Potters Corner 25/1
Chic Name 33/1
Two Smokin Barrels 40/1

Can pick this up again soon

Feels a race we can get sorted

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on February 15, 2019

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Eider Chase

This is a bit of an after timed post with a copy of Guy’s analysis of the Eider Chase from a week or so back.

It is a bit late posting it up but I thought

– We have used this blog very little of late so I thought I should post up something to help remind google and humans we are still alive.  The main service is very active indeed however despite inactivity on this blog area.

– Some service only put effort in for the likes of Cheltenham.  This I guess helps demo that Guy works very hard all year round for clients. The Eider is a major enough race of course but if you ever join the full service don’t be surprised to see excess in depth examination of much more minor races too.  If one seeks edge over the market one needs to be prepared to work harder than the average market participant whether that is for Cheltenham or a boggy afternoon at Plumton.

– The forward thinking advance planners amongst you can save the thought train below to a safe place and re examine it again for the Eider Chase 2019.  It may help provide you with the inspiration to unlock the race for yourself next year.

– I won a nice few £ on BayWing so this race is close to my personal heart.

 

 

NEWCASTLE 2.45 – THE EIDER CHASE – FEB 24th

5/1 Vinnie Lewis, 7/1 West Of The Edge,
8/1 Back To The Thatch, 8/1 Hainan,
9/1 Baywing, 10/1 Milansbar, 12/1 Chase The Spud,
12/1 Houblon Des Obeaux, 14/1 Smooth Stepper,
16/1 Thebarrowman, Themanfrom Minella, 20/1 Boric,
20/1 Milborough, 25/1 Portrait King, Silver Tassie,
50/1 Lochnell, Millicent Silver.

The Eider Chase
This is a Class 2 Handicap
Run over an extended 4 miles
One of my favourite races

Number of Chase runs

36 Houblon des Obeaux
27 Portrait King
25 Silver Tassie
23 Boric
19 Milborough
19 West of The Edge
16 Themanfrom Minella
15 Smooth Stepper
14 Milansbar
14 Chase The Spud
12 Millicent Silver
8 Hainan
7 Baywing
7 Lochnell
4 Thebarrowman
4 Back To The Thatch
4 Vinnie Lewis

No Hurry to bet ageing horses
Handicap Chases since 1998
Any Time of year
3m 5f or more
Class 2 or higher
Look at horses aged 12 or more
They have a miserable 2-246 record

PORTRAIT KING is out as a 13 years old
Too exposed and out of form

MILBOROUGH is the only 12yo
He looks far too short of recent runs
He’s only had previous 1 run this season

Runs This Season are important
If you look at the past recent winners
And how many races they had ran
Since August 1st that season
They had 2 3 5 3 3 5 2 5 3 4 4 6 7 7 4 3 6 6 runs
In the last at 18 renewals
16 of the 18 winners had 3 + runs that year
18 of the 18 winners had 2 + runs that year
MILBOROUGH is rejected with 1 run

CHASE THE SPUD has 2 runs this season
He did not finish his last run pulling up
Only 2 of the last 18 winners since 1997
Had under 3 runs that season
He looks underraced off his current rating

He has to to defy a handicap mark of 149
When you consider every winner since 1997
Won with an official rating of 139 or lower
CHASE THE SPUD has it all to prove

Horses with 20 + Chase runs rarely win
Handicap Chases since 1998
Run between January and March
3m 5f or more
Class 2 or higher
There are 86 of these races
Horses with 20 + Chase runs
Have a miserable 1-158 record

HOUBLON DES OBEAUX has 36 chase runs
He is this most exposed horse in the race
He also fails this 1-158 statistic
He is rated 144 which compacts his problem
As all winners since 197 were rated 139 or less
He is 0-9 over 3m 3f and more anyway
SILVER TASSIE has 25 Chase runs
He fails the 1-158 angle with over 20 chase runs
I don’t think he will stay over 4 miles
His sire’s runners over 3m 4f are 0-38
The Damsire is also a serious concern
BORIC has 23 Chase runs
He also fails that 1-158 statistic
He will need a career best to take this

Recent winners had these Chase runs
7 11 8 11 5 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8
If you look at the last 15 winners
14 of these had under 14 career starts

THEMANFROMMINELLA has 16 Chase runs
That is more than the norm in this race
14 of the last 15 winners had under 15
I would be wary sired by Shantou
His sire’s runners over 3m 4f are 0-38
His 3 runs over 3m 3f + were dreadful

WEST OF THE EDGE has 19 Chase runs
Thats not a positive sign in this race
He also has the longest absence as well
My Breeding stats are not convinced
Look at the record of the sire Westerner
This sires runners in Class 4 or higher
Have a 1-34 record over 3m 3f or more
His runners in Class 2 or higher
Have a 0-34 record over 3m 2f or more
WEST OF THE EDGE has positives
A Career best run last time being one
His Negatives outweight his positives
In a heavy ground 4 mile Eider Chase
Do we really want to bet the horse
With the longest absence in the race ?

MILANSBAR Pulled up in last years race
He is probably better in a smaller field
That is acceptable but he is an 11yo
Two things worry me about that
He has a 42 day absence
He has a Handicap Mark of 143
All winners since 1997 were rated 139 or less
MILANSBAR has more than all of these
His 6 week absence is not helpful either
The 2 recent 11yo winners ran within 17 days

January Febuary March
Handicap Chases over 3m 4f +
Run in Class 2 or higher
Since 2010
Horses aged 11 or more
Absent more than 35 days
Had a 0-103 record
MILANSBAR fails this 0-103 angle
MILBOROUGH also fails this 0-13 angle

MILLICENT SILVER is an out of form mare
Pulled up last time only 15 days ago
LOCHNELL doesn’t have the numbers
9yo Mare hammered ina Novice Handicap
Doesn’t strike me as an Eider winner

THEBARROWMAN has 4 Chase runs
Past winners had the following chases
7 11 8 11 5 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8
If you look at the last 15 winners
None of the last 15 had under 5 Chase runs
THEBARROWMAN only has 4 Chase runs
Thats fewer than all past winners
I don’t think he offers enough
Given he has 2 recent heavy defeats
And his pedigree hardly screams 4m

BACK TO THE HATCH has 4 Chase runs
A bigger worry He is only a 6 year old
As a June foal he is just 5 days 8 months
This race started in 1952
No horse aged 6 has won it before
Throw in some dodgy breeding stats
Horses sired bt Westerner
Running over 3m 2f + in Class 2 +
Have a 0-34 record
46 renewals since 1952
None went to a 6 year old
BACK TO THE HATCH looks unsafe

Shortlist

VINNIE LEWIS has 4 Chase runs
We now the last 15 had 5 or more
So it is a big ask for a 7 year old
But he is improving fast
His Numbers are progressive
But he is still quite young
We know no 6 year olds have won
Since the winner back in 1976
Only 2 winners aged 7 have won since
They have a 2-20 record since 1997
Horses aged 7 won in 1998 and 2012
They both ran within the last 3 weeks
VINNIE LEWIS has 48 days off the track

HAINAN is a 7yo
Since 1976 only 2 have won
They both ran within the last 3 weeks
HAINAN has 35 days off the track
I like his numbers which are strong
Not certain to stay this far though
And he had a hard race last time
Will he have enough recovery time
After a 3rd in the Peter Marsh on Heavy

SMOOTH STEPPER has 15 chase runs
A few more than ideal but acceptable
6th in last years race beaten 22 lengths
He has an extra run this season
And on his Racing Post Ratings
His last run was a career best
He has more than enough to shortlist
His trainer is worried about the ground
But he’s won 3 times here on soft ground

BAYWING is 9 and has 7 Chase runs
There is nothing wrong with that
He is a great big strapping chaser
If you look at his Racing Post Chase ratings
He comes here with 151 147 figures
Comfortably clear of his 140 handicap mark
I think he has to be a positive
Even if a rating of 140 is hard to defy

If I run some Breeding stats
Sires who have bred winners
In the following circumstances

3m 5f or more
Class 2 or higher
Soft or heavy ground
Only 2 sires have had winners
These are Alflora and Winged Love

The 100/1 rank outsider qualifies
But only 2 other horses also pass
Baywing is sired by Winged Love
Smooth Stepper is sired by Alflora

Selection

£4.00 Win SMOOTH STEPPER 16/1

£5.00 Win BAYWING 10/1 [WON]

£1.00 Win HAINAN 7/1

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 6, 2018

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