The Derby 2013

The Derby     Epsom  4.00

I am posting up my thoughts on the Derby today
more so out of public demand than because it
is my favoured betting option today.

Full members I have actually pointed to an 8/1
shot riding at Newcastle this evening planning  to follow
on from yesterday’s NEEDY MCCREDIE 9/1 advised winner.

Returning to this afternoon however all eyes will be on The Derby

The Derby this year is about whether the best horse in
the race DAWN APPROACH stays 12f. Far too much has
been written already about this and nobody will know
until after the race. My pennys worth doesnt matter but
I do have my doubts about him staying and have been
persuaded by the arguments against him and given he
is a very short price I’d rather take something each way
against him. You can be wrong about the stamina issue
yet still come out ahead. I wasnt keen on MARS having
just one run this year in the Guineas. FESTIVE CHEER’s
the Aidan O’Brien 3rd string so not for me. CHOPIN has
not got enough positive points much as he isn’t easy to
read. LIBERTARIAN wouldn’t be first choice but that’s a
bit down to Racing snobbery. OCOVANGO needs to be
respected but he is drawn one and it will be difficult to
win from that draw. I respect RULER OF THE WORLD a
lot but I prefer his stablemate BATTLE OF MARENGO a
horse that would be Top rated were it not for the short
priced favourite. He looks the natural each way bet.

I have had to come to terms with advising a bet in
the Derby with Cheekpieces but Joseph O’Brien is
riding and has rejected the other Coolmore horses
and times and training patterns change and I can
live with it. The favourite may win but I am more
persuaded by the argument against him staying
than those that say he will. I dont think he is one
of those bet to nothings each way but BATTLE
OF MARENGO looks to me like the second best
horse and a bet each way.

Selection

BATTLE OF MARENGO

Each Way

Top bookmaker price is 7/1 bet365William Hillstan james

But consider stongly as well the Derby special offers from
victor chandler and Ladbrokes who will return as free bet cash
up to £50 and £25 respectively if Dawn Approach wins.
That is quite attractive extra insurance.

These are offers open to all customers not just new ones.
See their sites for full terms.

Current Prices
victor chandler  13/2
Ladbrokes 6/1

Best Wishes
Guy

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Derby Betting Tip

The Derby Epson 4.00

9/4 Carlton House, 4/1 Recital, 11/2 Pour Moi, 13/2 Seville
10/1 Native Khan, 16/1 Ocean War, 16/1 Vadamar
25/1 Masked Marvel, 25/1 Treasure Beach, Memphis Tennessee
100/1 Pisco Sour, Marhaba Malyoon, 500/1 Castlemorris King.

My quick thoughts on the Derby.

The Derby always gets confusing as you read and hear positives and negatives for everything.
Throw in the injury scare for the favourite – Two Aidan O’Brien horses hard to split and a
French horse thats carrying serious confidence.
Just for the record there is a reasonably strong draw bias here based on the following.

* Epsom has 25 races since 2005
* Thats 25 races with between 10 and 14 runners like today
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 had a poor 1-70 record
* Horses drawn 13 or more were 0-18
* Horses drawn 4-12 are the best places
* Horses drawn 5-11 come out best
* Horses drawn 5-11 won 22 of the 25 races

He may win and I was impressed with his win at York but I am opposing
CARLTON HOUSE on stamina doubts.
I dont want a horse from a Mile like NATIVE KHAN especially without a
good draw. RECITAL throws up a dilemma with his ungainly
action but he will be a different horse today. I think this will come down to
RECITAL or POUR MOI one being the saver.

Selection – RECITAL 11/2 Ladbrokes blue square bet365
Saver – POUR MOI  you can get 13/2 Coral and VC

NB betfred are running a very good concession on this race
of offering losing stakes back if Carlton House wins the Derby.
That’s a reasonably generous perk and may swing me to stake there
possibly during the shows as their early odds are a bit tight on the above.

A note to each way backers amongst you bet365 and William Hill are offering 1/3 for a place.

Posted under horse racing tips